基于网络传播视角的广东消费品价格波动关联效应研究
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摘要
当前，我国价格运行又开始出现新的上涨苗头。中国央行2012年第四季度货币政策执行情况报告提出要警惕通胀预期风险，防范输入性通胀压力。英国《金融时报》刊登文章，建议各国政府要提前防范2013年全球性通胀压力，采取先发制人措施来控制通胀。这些新情况可以从价格波动关联效应角度来探索通胀形成的机理和过程，为价格调控提出有针对性的对策和建议。
以往学者主要运用投入产出价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应，由于存在拆并投入产出表非常困难的问题，导致对大样本消费品价格波动之间的关联效应研究成果比较少。需要探索更为简单有效的方法来研究价格波动关联效应，为价格研究工作者和政府价格管理部门提供简易可行的研究工具和测算方法。
本文将价格波动关联效应视为服从某种传播规律的网络传播机制，引入网络传播视角研究了广东价格波动关联效应。首先从经济学中常用于研究价格波动关联效应的模型——基于投入产出理论的价格影响模型出发，以2007年广东省135部门价值型投入产出表为基础，通过拆并的办法，建立了分别包括9个部门和30个部门（或消费品）的投入产出表，在此基础上建立了广东价格影响模型，测算了价格波动关联效应。并引入金融财务管理中的贝塔系数(β)、传导率（γ）以及对外敏感度（θ）3个参数对价格影响模型进行了新的改进，建立了供求关系变化和开放条件下广东价格波动关联效应模型。为克服因运用价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应而遇到拆并投入产出表的困难，尝试运用网络传播的方法，把价格影响模型下价格波动关联效应投射到网络上，通过建立价格波动网络传播模型来模拟价格影响模型下的价格波动关联效应，发现吻合程度较高。在模拟基础上，将价格波动网络传播模型推广到研究240种消费品价格波动关联效应情况，建立了价格波动关联效应综合网络传播模型，并针对2008年国际金融危机前后消费品价格波动关联效应的变异情况进行了应用研究。
研究取得了如下创新性成果：
1.引入网络传播视角，将价格波动关联效应视为服从某种传播规律的网络传播机制，构建了价格波动网络传播模型，测算了大样本消费品价格波动关联效应，可为研究消费品价格波动关联效应提供相对简易的方法。以往学者运用投入产出价格影响模型来研究消费品价格波动关联效应，必然碰到拆并投入产出表的难题，往往只能研究单个或少量消费品价格波动关联效应，无法测算出大样本消费品之间价格波动关联影响。构建价格波动网络传播模型研究消费品价格波动关联效应，可避免因运用价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应而遇到的拆并投入产出表的困难，同时可测算广东大样本消费品价格波动关联效应，为政府价格调控决策提供参考依据。
2.探索了与投入产出价格影响模型下价格波动关联效应效果一致的网络传播机理。把基于价格影响模型下得到的价格波动关联效应投射到网络上，构建了价格波动关联效应投射网络，在分析网络拓扑结构的基础上，引入网络传播方法，通过消费品价格指数时间序列之间的相关系数，建立价格波动关联网络及其传播方程（即价格波动网络传播机制）来模拟价格影响模型下的价格波动关联效应，发现模拟吻合度较高。在构建网络传播机制中采取先探索出传播方程，并固定传播方程不变，再不断调整修正网络阈值（相应改变网络拓扑结构），比较成功地使得通过网络传播模拟的消费品价格波动关联效应与价格影响模型下价格波动关联效应基本接近，可为构建价格波动网络传播机制提供新的途径。
3.建立了反映供求关系变化和开放条件下的价格影响模型，测算了市场竞争激烈、对外依存度高条件下消费品价格波动之间的相互影响。文章引入金融财务管理中的贝塔系数(β)、传导率（γ）以及对外敏感度（θ）3个参数来分别表示市场供求关系、价格之间传导以及价格对外敏感度等因素，建立了供求关系变化和开放条件下广东价格波动关联效应模型。运用该模型测算了广东消费品价格波动之间的关联效应。这在一定程度上弥补了以往运用投入产出价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应时，无法充分反映市场供求关系、国际市场等因素对价格波动关联效应影响的不足。
Presently, The tend of inflation appears again in our country. The report on implement ofmonetary policy in the fourth quarter2012from The People's Bank of China warns that therisk of inflation expectations should be paid attention to and the input inflationary pressureshould gain precaution. Financial Times from Britain publishes article to propose that everygovernment should prepare and prevent themselves from global inflationary pressure andtakes some steps to keep the inflation under control. These new situation can be discussedfrom the perspective of the correlation of Price volatility, for probing into its rule and processwhen it comes into being. Tactics and proposals to control the price expectations are anurgent issue.
In the past，the Scholars studied the associated effects on price fluctuations byinput-output price impact model. Because of the difficulty in demoliting and reorganizatinginput and out-output table, Few researchs were made in studing the associated effects of pricefluctuations on large sample consumer goods. It is necessary to explore a more simple andeffective method to study the associated effects on price volatility, and provide a feasibleresearch tool and the calculation method for the price researchers and government pricecontrol department.
The paper studies the Guang Dong correlation effect of price volatility under the anglesof input-output theory and Network Spread. This paper, first of all, studies the correlationeffect of price fluctuation by using price influence model, which are based on input-outputtheory and widely used for in economics.The input-output table for9departments and30kinds of merchandise is set up on the basis of input-output value table of135departments inGuang Dong. On the basis of above steps, The model of price effect in Guang Dong is set upand the correlation effect of price fluctuation is figured out. In order to improve theshortcoming that price influence model in the past can’t take the factors, such as the highlydeveloped market in Guangdong and its deep dependence on foreign trade into consideration,the essay introduces three parameters β,γ,θ in financial management to present the factors,such as relation of market supply and demand, the dependence on export based on anintensive study on export-oriented economy in Guangdong. This paper can improve the price influence model and set up a correlation effect mechanism of price fluctuation under the newcircumstance of changing supply-demand relation and opening-up. What’s more, it conductsthe calculation of correlation effect and relative analysis, which can reflect clearer the realprice fluctuation in Guang Dong under the condition of reform and opening up.
To overcome the difficulty of demolition and reorganization input and out-output tablewhen implementing the price influence model to study the correlation effect of pricepunctuation, this paper tries to use the method of Network Spread and project the correlationeffect of price punctuation under price influence model to the network. By building upcorrelation network of price punctuation, exploring the mechanism of price transmission innetwork, setting up price transmission model of network to imitate the correlation effect ofprice punctuation under the price influence model, the paper finds the imitation highlyinosculated. On the basis of above Simulation, the paper expends the network transmissionmodel of price fluctuation to study the correlation effects of240kinds of products’ pricepunctuation and sets up the network price punctuation synthesized transmission model.Besides, the paper also studies the abnormal changes of correlation effect of Consumer goodsprice punctuation before and after the international financial crisis in2008.
The following creative fruits are gained in this paper.
Firstly, A network price transmission model is set up, which contributes to providingrelatively easy ways for studying the correlation effect of Consumer goods price fluctuation.In the past, the scholars applied the price influence model based on input-output theory tostudy the correlation effect of Consumer goods price punctuation. It’s inevitable that theywould encounter the difficulty in demolition and reorganization input-output table, which hada bad effect on further research. Setting up the network price transmission model to study thecorrelation effect of consumer goods price punctuation can avoid the difficulty in demolitionand reorganization input-output table when studying the price fluctuation effect correlationunder the price influence model. In addition, it can comes up with effective method and newangle in studying the correlation effect of commodity price fluctuation for large sample.
Secondly, The paper has studied the Network communication mechanism which isconsistent with the correlation effect of price fluctuation based on input-output priceinfluence model. And it has projected the correlation effect of price fluctuation under price influence model to network, setting up the projection network of correlation effect of pricefluctuation. Based on analyzing the topology properties of projection network, the paperintroduces network transmission method and sets up correlation network of price fluctuationand its propagation equation(i.e. network price transmission mechanism) to simulate thecorrelation effect of price fluctuation under the price influence model through relatedcoefficient among its chronological sequence of commodity price index. It finds that thesimulation enjoys a high goodness of fit. In the process of network price transmissionmechanism, this paper finds firstly the propagation equation and keeps this equation fixed,then Constantly adjusts the network threshold(A corresponding change in the correlationstructure of the network). It’s quite successful in making the correlation effect of commodityprice fluctuation close to the correlation effect under the price influence model through thenetwork transmission simulation and in providing a new way and angle for setting up thenetwork price Propagation mechanism.
Finally, The paper improves price influence model in past.The improved price model canreflect the change of supply-demand relation under the reform and opening up, calculates theinterplay influence among the commodity price punctuation. The paper introduces threeparameters β,γ,θ in financial management to present the factors, such as relation of marketsupply and demand, the transmission among prices and the degree of sensitivity onexport,and Calculates the interplay among the commodity price fluctuation under thecircumstance of fierce competition in markets and high dependence on export by theimproved price effect model in Guang Dong. It can make up the study on correlation effect ofprice fluctuation by applying the input-output price model in the past, which can’t reflect theinfluence of the factors such as supply-demand relation and international market.
以往学者主要运用投入产出价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应，由于存在拆并投入产出表非常困难的问题，导致对大样本消费品价格波动之间的关联效应研究成果比较少。需要探索更为简单有效的方法来研究价格波动关联效应，为价格研究工作者和政府价格管理部门提供简易可行的研究工具和测算方法。
本文将价格波动关联效应视为服从某种传播规律的网络传播机制，引入网络传播视角研究了广东价格波动关联效应。首先从经济学中常用于研究价格波动关联效应的模型——基于投入产出理论的价格影响模型出发，以2007年广东省135部门价值型投入产出表为基础，通过拆并的办法，建立了分别包括9个部门和30个部门（或消费品）的投入产出表，在此基础上建立了广东价格影响模型，测算了价格波动关联效应。并引入金融财务管理中的贝塔系数(β)、传导率（γ）以及对外敏感度（θ）3个参数对价格影响模型进行了新的改进，建立了供求关系变化和开放条件下广东价格波动关联效应模型。为克服因运用价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应而遇到拆并投入产出表的困难，尝试运用网络传播的方法，把价格影响模型下价格波动关联效应投射到网络上，通过建立价格波动网络传播模型来模拟价格影响模型下的价格波动关联效应，发现吻合程度较高。在模拟基础上，将价格波动网络传播模型推广到研究240种消费品价格波动关联效应情况，建立了价格波动关联效应综合网络传播模型，并针对2008年国际金融危机前后消费品价格波动关联效应的变异情况进行了应用研究。
研究取得了如下创新性成果：
1.引入网络传播视角，将价格波动关联效应视为服从某种传播规律的网络传播机制，构建了价格波动网络传播模型，测算了大样本消费品价格波动关联效应，可为研究消费品价格波动关联效应提供相对简易的方法。以往学者运用投入产出价格影响模型来研究消费品价格波动关联效应，必然碰到拆并投入产出表的难题，往往只能研究单个或少量消费品价格波动关联效应，无法测算出大样本消费品之间价格波动关联影响。构建价格波动网络传播模型研究消费品价格波动关联效应，可避免因运用价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应而遇到的拆并投入产出表的困难，同时可测算广东大样本消费品价格波动关联效应，为政府价格调控决策提供参考依据。
2.探索了与投入产出价格影响模型下价格波动关联效应效果一致的网络传播机理。把基于价格影响模型下得到的价格波动关联效应投射到网络上，构建了价格波动关联效应投射网络，在分析网络拓扑结构的基础上，引入网络传播方法，通过消费品价格指数时间序列之间的相关系数，建立价格波动关联网络及其传播方程（即价格波动网络传播机制）来模拟价格影响模型下的价格波动关联效应，发现模拟吻合度较高。在构建网络传播机制中采取先探索出传播方程，并固定传播方程不变，再不断调整修正网络阈值（相应改变网络拓扑结构），比较成功地使得通过网络传播模拟的消费品价格波动关联效应与价格影响模型下价格波动关联效应基本接近，可为构建价格波动网络传播机制提供新的途径。
3.建立了反映供求关系变化和开放条件下的价格影响模型，测算了市场竞争激烈、对外依存度高条件下消费品价格波动之间的相互影响。文章引入金融财务管理中的贝塔系数(β)、传导率（γ）以及对外敏感度（θ）3个参数来分别表示市场供求关系、价格之间传导以及价格对外敏感度等因素，建立了供求关系变化和开放条件下广东价格波动关联效应模型。运用该模型测算了广东消费品价格波动之间的关联效应。这在一定程度上弥补了以往运用投入产出价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应时，无法充分反映市场供求关系、国际市场等因素对价格波动关联效应影响的不足。
Presently, The tend of inflation appears again in our country. The report on implement ofmonetary policy in the fourth quarter2012from The People's Bank of China warns that therisk of inflation expectations should be paid attention to and the input inflationary pressureshould gain precaution. Financial Times from Britain publishes article to propose that everygovernment should prepare and prevent themselves from global inflationary pressure andtakes some steps to keep the inflation under control. These new situation can be discussedfrom the perspective of the correlation of Price volatility, for probing into its rule and processwhen it comes into being. Tactics and proposals to control the price expectations are anurgent issue.
In the past，the Scholars studied the associated effects on price fluctuations byinput-output price impact model. Because of the difficulty in demoliting and reorganizatinginput and out-output table, Few researchs were made in studing the associated effects of pricefluctuations on large sample consumer goods. It is necessary to explore a more simple andeffective method to study the associated effects on price volatility, and provide a feasibleresearch tool and the calculation method for the price researchers and government pricecontrol department.
The paper studies the Guang Dong correlation effect of price volatility under the anglesof input-output theory and Network Spread. This paper, first of all, studies the correlationeffect of price fluctuation by using price influence model, which are based on input-outputtheory and widely used for in economics.The input-output table for9departments and30kinds of merchandise is set up on the basis of input-output value table of135departments inGuang Dong. On the basis of above steps, The model of price effect in Guang Dong is set upand the correlation effect of price fluctuation is figured out. In order to improve theshortcoming that price influence model in the past can’t take the factors, such as the highlydeveloped market in Guangdong and its deep dependence on foreign trade into consideration,the essay introduces three parameters β,γ,θ in financial management to present the factors,such as relation of market supply and demand, the dependence on export based on anintensive study on export-oriented economy in Guangdong. This paper can improve the price influence model and set up a correlation effect mechanism of price fluctuation under the newcircumstance of changing supply-demand relation and opening-up. What’s more, it conductsthe calculation of correlation effect and relative analysis, which can reflect clearer the realprice fluctuation in Guang Dong under the condition of reform and opening up.
To overcome the difficulty of demolition and reorganization input and out-output tablewhen implementing the price influence model to study the correlation effect of pricepunctuation, this paper tries to use the method of Network Spread and project the correlationeffect of price punctuation under price influence model to the network. By building upcorrelation network of price punctuation, exploring the mechanism of price transmission innetwork, setting up price transmission model of network to imitate the correlation effect ofprice punctuation under the price influence model, the paper finds the imitation highlyinosculated. On the basis of above Simulation, the paper expends the network transmissionmodel of price fluctuation to study the correlation effects of240kinds of products’ pricepunctuation and sets up the network price punctuation synthesized transmission model.Besides, the paper also studies the abnormal changes of correlation effect of Consumer goodsprice punctuation before and after the international financial crisis in2008.
The following creative fruits are gained in this paper.
Firstly, A network price transmission model is set up, which contributes to providingrelatively easy ways for studying the correlation effect of Consumer goods price fluctuation.In the past, the scholars applied the price influence model based on input-output theory tostudy the correlation effect of Consumer goods price punctuation. It’s inevitable that theywould encounter the difficulty in demolition and reorganization input-output table, which hada bad effect on further research. Setting up the network price transmission model to study thecorrelation effect of consumer goods price punctuation can avoid the difficulty in demolitionand reorganization input-output table when studying the price fluctuation effect correlationunder the price influence model. In addition, it can comes up with effective method and newangle in studying the correlation effect of commodity price fluctuation for large sample.
Secondly, The paper has studied the Network communication mechanism which isconsistent with the correlation effect of price fluctuation based on input-output priceinfluence model. And it has projected the correlation effect of price fluctuation under price influence model to network, setting up the projection network of correlation effect of pricefluctuation. Based on analyzing the topology properties of projection network, the paperintroduces network transmission method and sets up correlation network of price fluctuationand its propagation equation(i.e. network price transmission mechanism) to simulate thecorrelation effect of price fluctuation under the price influence model through relatedcoefficient among its chronological sequence of commodity price index. It finds that thesimulation enjoys a high goodness of fit. In the process of network price transmissionmechanism, this paper finds firstly the propagation equation and keeps this equation fixed,then Constantly adjusts the network threshold(A corresponding change in the correlationstructure of the network). It’s quite successful in making the correlation effect of commodityprice fluctuation close to the correlation effect under the price influence model through thenetwork transmission simulation and in providing a new way and angle for setting up thenetwork price Propagation mechanism.
Finally, The paper improves price influence model in past.The improved price model canreflect the change of supply-demand relation under the reform and opening up, calculates theinterplay influence among the commodity price punctuation. The paper introduces threeparameters β,γ,θ in financial management to present the factors, such as relation of marketsupply and demand, the transmission among prices and the degree of sensitivity onexport,and Calculates the interplay among the commodity price fluctuation under thecircumstance of fierce competition in markets and high dependence on export by theimproved price effect model in Guang Dong. It can make up the study on correlation effect ofprice fluctuation by applying the input-output price model in the past, which can’t reflect theinfluence of the factors such as supply-demand relation and international market.
引文
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