上海地区雷暴活动时空变化特征及雷电预警研究
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摘要
雷电不仅威胁着人类的生命安全,更常使建筑、电力、电子通信和航空航天等诸多基础系统遭受严重破坏。随着人类社会对现代工业的依赖性日益增长,雷电灾害造成的经济损失也更加严重。因此,对各个地区进行雷电的演变和分布特点进行研究,并在此基础上探索合适的雷电预报方法非常重要,对于防灾减灾、拓宽气象服务领域具有重要意义。
雷暴活动的气候特征是雷暴研究的一个重要方面,它反映了雷暴活动在空间和时间上的长期统计结果。统计使用的资料越长,则雷暴活动的气候代表性就越好,通常至少要有30年以上的观测资料。本文利用上海1971年至2009年全市11个气象观测站39年长序列的雷暴日记录,同时结合闪电定位仪资料,采用经验正交分解(EOF)方法,分析了上海地区的雷暴空间分布特征与时间变化特征,用Morlet小波进行了周期分析。EOF在反映气象场空间分布特征与时间变化等方面有其独到之处,其优点是可将气象要素场分解为不随时间变化的空间函数部分(特征向量)及与空间无关的时间函数部分,其空间函数部分是由气象要素场的主要特征所决定的,并且EOF方法的收敛速度很快,故只要取前几个特征值较大的特征向量,即可充分描述出展开要素场的主要特征；小波理论是近十几年发展起来的新的信号处理技术,在数值信号处理领域应用广泛,在气候诊断中,小波变换不仅可以给出气候序列变化的尺度,还可以显示出变化的时间位置。
研究结果表明,上海地区雷暴活动最主要的空间变化为全区域趋势相同,具体指某年上海地区雷暴活动普遍较多或普遍较少。上海地区雷暴活动次要的空间变化为西北部至东南部带状区域与东北部、西南部的相反型,即当西北部至东南部带状区域雷暴活动减少,东北部、西南部雷暴活动相对增多,反之亦然,且雷暴日变化存在一定的周期。根据上海市防雷中心2009年和2010年闪电定位系统的探测资料,对雷暴日观测与闪电定位仪探测结果进行了比对,表明了两者的一致性。随后本文探讨了雷电预报的可行性方法,并利用上海市防雷中心雷电监测网的观测资料,对2010年7月14日14：00-17：00所发生的闪电活动情况进行了预报尝试,结果表明预报结果有一定的参考价值。
全文共分为六章,第一章介绍了雷电的危害成因、国内外对于雷电研究的现状、研究意义及如何进行防护。第二章介绍了雷电探测的原理及设备。第三章介绍了上海地区雷电监测研究现状。第四章利用经验正交函数法(EOF)和小波分析方法处理上海地区11个气象观测站1971年至2009年39年的雷暴日资料,分析了上海地区雷暴的时间、空间特征。同时对上海市防雷中心的闪电定位资料做了相应的统计分析。第五章采用上海市防雷中心雷电探测资料,尝试给出雷电的短时预报预警方法,并用已有资料进行了验证,有待在实际工作中进一步检验。第六章在总结全文的同时提出了今后工作的研究设
Thunders not only threaten the safety of human kinds, but also damage constructions and the foundational systems of electricity, electronic communication and aerospace, etc.. The financial cost of the disaster of thunder and lightning also increases with the growing dependence of the human society on modern industries. Therefore, the importance of the researches on the thunder and lightning changes and locations, also further appropriate forecasting can be seen in the areas of the disaster prevention and mitigation, and enlarging the meteorological services.
The meteorological characteristics of thunderstorm activities are one of the important aspects of the thunderstorm research, which reflect the long-term statistic results of the temporal and spatial variations of the thunderstorm activities. The longer history of the statistical data is, the more accurate meteorology representativeness describes the thunderstorm activities. Generally speaking,30 years (at least) of observation data is required to define a typical thunderstorm. In this dissertation, the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of the thunderstorm activities in Shanghai is analyzed with EOF methods. Data collection contained daily records of the thunderstorms in Shanghai in 39 years (1971-2009), and the data from the lightning position indicator. Cycle analysis of Morlet wavelet is also used. EOF has advantages in the reflection of the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of the meteorological fields. It can divide the meteorological elements fields into non-temporally related spatial function part (eigenvector), and non-spatially related temporal function part which is decided by the main characteristic of the meteorological elements fields. Furthermore, the convergence rate of EOF is fast, thus it only requires the first few large eigenvectors to fully define the main characteristics of the expanding elements fields:Wavelet theory had already been widely used in areas of signal processing technology though it is newly developed in recent years.
The results of this study are:the consistency of thunderstorm activities in all area in Shanghai, and under this circumstance, a reverse is known by comparing the thunderstorm activities in the north-west to south-east area and in the south-west area and north-east area; a certain cycle exists in the daily changes of thunderstorms. According to the detection information (data from 2009 to 2010) of the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai, the daily-observation of thunderstorms and the results from lightning position indicator is compared, and consistency between both is confirmed. Feasible methods of lightning forecast are discussed, and the forecast of all lightning activities from 14:00 to 17:00 in 14th July, 2010 is simulated by using the observation data of the monitoring net of the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai. This article includes six chapters. The first chapter introduced the damage causes of thunder and lightning, researches from both the domestic and abroad, the purpose of this study and prevention approaches. Chapter two introduced the theories and equipments of thunder detecting. Chapter three introduced the current researches of thunder and lightning detection in Shanghai area. Chapter four analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of the daily-data of the thunderstorms from 11 meteorological stations of Shanghai from 1971 to 2009, using the methods of EOF and wavelet analysis. At the mean time, related statistical analysis of information from the lightning position indicator of the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai is also done in this chapter. Chapter five focused on the short-term forecast and alert methods by analyzing the thunder and lightning detecting information from the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai, and proved the hypothesis by the existed data, which need further examination in the real world. Chapter six provided a conclusion and research advices for later works.
雷暴活动的气候特征是雷暴研究的一个重要方面,它反映了雷暴活动在空间和时间上的长期统计结果。统计使用的资料越长,则雷暴活动的气候代表性就越好,通常至少要有30年以上的观测资料。本文利用上海1971年至2009年全市11个气象观测站39年长序列的雷暴日记录,同时结合闪电定位仪资料,采用经验正交分解(EOF)方法,分析了上海地区的雷暴空间分布特征与时间变化特征,用Morlet小波进行了周期分析。EOF在反映气象场空间分布特征与时间变化等方面有其独到之处,其优点是可将气象要素场分解为不随时间变化的空间函数部分(特征向量)及与空间无关的时间函数部分,其空间函数部分是由气象要素场的主要特征所决定的,并且EOF方法的收敛速度很快,故只要取前几个特征值较大的特征向量,即可充分描述出展开要素场的主要特征；小波理论是近十几年发展起来的新的信号处理技术,在数值信号处理领域应用广泛,在气候诊断中,小波变换不仅可以给出气候序列变化的尺度,还可以显示出变化的时间位置。
研究结果表明,上海地区雷暴活动最主要的空间变化为全区域趋势相同,具体指某年上海地区雷暴活动普遍较多或普遍较少。上海地区雷暴活动次要的空间变化为西北部至东南部带状区域与东北部、西南部的相反型,即当西北部至东南部带状区域雷暴活动减少,东北部、西南部雷暴活动相对增多,反之亦然,且雷暴日变化存在一定的周期。根据上海市防雷中心2009年和2010年闪电定位系统的探测资料,对雷暴日观测与闪电定位仪探测结果进行了比对,表明了两者的一致性。随后本文探讨了雷电预报的可行性方法,并利用上海市防雷中心雷电监测网的观测资料,对2010年7月14日14：00-17：00所发生的闪电活动情况进行了预报尝试,结果表明预报结果有一定的参考价值。
全文共分为六章,第一章介绍了雷电的危害成因、国内外对于雷电研究的现状、研究意义及如何进行防护。第二章介绍了雷电探测的原理及设备。第三章介绍了上海地区雷电监测研究现状。第四章利用经验正交函数法(EOF)和小波分析方法处理上海地区11个气象观测站1971年至2009年39年的雷暴日资料,分析了上海地区雷暴的时间、空间特征。同时对上海市防雷中心的闪电定位资料做了相应的统计分析。第五章采用上海市防雷中心雷电探测资料,尝试给出雷电的短时预报预警方法,并用已有资料进行了验证,有待在实际工作中进一步检验。第六章在总结全文的同时提出了今后工作的研究设
Thunders not only threaten the safety of human kinds, but also damage constructions and the foundational systems of electricity, electronic communication and aerospace, etc.. The financial cost of the disaster of thunder and lightning also increases with the growing dependence of the human society on modern industries. Therefore, the importance of the researches on the thunder and lightning changes and locations, also further appropriate forecasting can be seen in the areas of the disaster prevention and mitigation, and enlarging the meteorological services.
The meteorological characteristics of thunderstorm activities are one of the important aspects of the thunderstorm research, which reflect the long-term statistic results of the temporal and spatial variations of the thunderstorm activities. The longer history of the statistical data is, the more accurate meteorology representativeness describes the thunderstorm activities. Generally speaking,30 years (at least) of observation data is required to define a typical thunderstorm. In this dissertation, the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of the thunderstorm activities in Shanghai is analyzed with EOF methods. Data collection contained daily records of the thunderstorms in Shanghai in 39 years (1971-2009), and the data from the lightning position indicator. Cycle analysis of Morlet wavelet is also used. EOF has advantages in the reflection of the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of the meteorological fields. It can divide the meteorological elements fields into non-temporally related spatial function part (eigenvector), and non-spatially related temporal function part which is decided by the main characteristic of the meteorological elements fields. Furthermore, the convergence rate of EOF is fast, thus it only requires the first few large eigenvectors to fully define the main characteristics of the expanding elements fields:Wavelet theory had already been widely used in areas of signal processing technology though it is newly developed in recent years.
The results of this study are:the consistency of thunderstorm activities in all area in Shanghai, and under this circumstance, a reverse is known by comparing the thunderstorm activities in the north-west to south-east area and in the south-west area and north-east area; a certain cycle exists in the daily changes of thunderstorms. According to the detection information (data from 2009 to 2010) of the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai, the daily-observation of thunderstorms and the results from lightning position indicator is compared, and consistency between both is confirmed. Feasible methods of lightning forecast are discussed, and the forecast of all lightning activities from 14:00 to 17:00 in 14th July, 2010 is simulated by using the observation data of the monitoring net of the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai. This article includes six chapters. The first chapter introduced the damage causes of thunder and lightning, researches from both the domestic and abroad, the purpose of this study and prevention approaches. Chapter two introduced the theories and equipments of thunder detecting. Chapter three introduced the current researches of thunder and lightning detection in Shanghai area. Chapter four analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of the daily-data of the thunderstorms from 11 meteorological stations of Shanghai from 1971 to 2009, using the methods of EOF and wavelet analysis. At the mean time, related statistical analysis of information from the lightning position indicator of the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai is also done in this chapter. Chapter five focused on the short-term forecast and alert methods by analyzing the thunder and lightning detecting information from the Lightning Protection Center of Shanghai, and proved the hypothesis by the existed data, which need further examination in the real world. Chapter six provided a conclusion and research advices for later works.
引文
[1]中国科协减轻自然灾害(2007)白皮书.广州：中国气象学会,2007
[2]梅卫群,江燕如.建筑防雷工程与设计.北京：气象出版社,2004
[3]肖稳安,张小青.雷电与防护技术基础.北京：气象出版社,2006
[4]陈渭民.雷电学原理(第二版).北京：气象出版社,2003
[5]Neumann C J. The thunderstorm of forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center. J. Appl. Meteor.1990,10:921-936
[6]Phillip D Falconer. A radar2based climatology of thunderstorm days across New York State. Journal of Applied Meteorology,1984,23:1115-1120
[7]David R Easterling. Persistent patterns of thunderstorm activity in the central United States. Journal of Climate,1990,3:1380-1389
[8]张敏锋,冯霞.我国雷暴天气的气候特征.热带气象学报.1998,14(2)：156-162
[9]Vonnegut B. Some facts and speculations concerning the origin and role of thunderdtorm Electricity. Meteorol Monogr.1963,5(27):211-221
[10][英]R. H. Golde著,周诗健,孙景群,译,阮忠家校,雷电北京：电力工业出版社.1982
[11]王道洪,郄秀书,郭昌明,编著,雷电与人工引雷.上海：上海交通大学出版社.2001,1—16,4546,87—88
[12]Colin Price, Evidence for a link between global lighming activity and upper tropospheric water vapour.NATURE, VOL 406,20 JULY,2000,290-292
[13]雷暴探测和雷电物理研究(中国科学院大气物理研究所集刊第4号)科学出版社.1976年1月第一版
[14]徐桂玉,杨修群.我国南方雷暴的气候特征研究.气象科学.2001,21(3)：299-307
[15]黄寅亮,陈济民,黄更生,不同发展阶段雷暴云中电荷的静电力散度分布及其动力作用.地球物理学报,1986,29(5)：520—525
[16]仇九子,雷暴云带电的理论研究.物理与工程.2002,1(12)：17-21
[17]郭风霞,张义军,郄秀书,言穆弘,雷暴云不同空间电荷结构数值模拟研究.高原气象.2003,22(3)：268-274
[18]孙安平,言穆弘,张义军,郄秀书,雷暴云下空间电荷层形成的数值研究.大气科学.2001,25(1)：16-24
[19]罗霞,陈渭民,李照荣,胡胜娟,李旭,雷暴云电结构与闪电关系初探.气象科学.2007,27(3)：280-286
[20]葛正谟,董万胜,雷暴云中闪电放电条件下的雨滴增长.高原气象.1996,15(2)：212-220
[21]李荣,王才伟,我国两类电结构不同的雷暴云.高电压技术.1998,24(1)：81-84
[22]Reap R M. Climatological characteristics and objective prediction of thunderstorms overAlaska. Wea. Forecasting,1991,6:309-319
[23]Ducrocq V, Tzanos D, senesi S. Diagnostic tools using a mesoscale NWP Model for the early warning of convection. Meteor. Appl.,1998,5:329-349
[24]Ravi N, Mohanty U C, Madan 0 E et als, Forecasting of thunderstorms in the pre—monsoon season at Delhi. Meteor. Appl.,1999,6:29-38
[25]吴健,陈毅芬,曾智聪,利用地面电场仪与闪电定位资料进行短时雷电预警的方法.气象与环境科学.2009,32(1)：47-50
[26]张义军,等,闪电探测技术发展和资料应用.应用气象学报.2006,17(5)：611-620
[27]孙景群.大气电学手册.北京：科学出版社,1995
[28]蒋正龙,湖南雷电定位系统定位算法的研究.湖南电力,2000,1(6)
[29]VAISALA.SAFIR Site Selection,Site CMA-3000.Wuhan Area,SITE SELECTION FINAL REPORT. VAISALA,2005
[30]VAISALA. Vaisala Thunderstrom Total Lighting Sensor LS7000/LS8000 USER'S GUIGE
[31]苏伊士集团,雷电静电场侦探系统(AMEO)使用说明书
[32]VAISALA.Thunderstrom Sensor Model 928 USER'S GUIGE
[33]VAISALA. FALLS_user_guide
[34]许迎杰,尹丽云,邓勇,等.地位高原雷暴的气候特征分析.高原气象,2008,27(4)：888—895
[35]段炼,陈章,近42年成都地区雷暴的气候统计特征.自然灾害学报,自然灾害学报,2006,15(4)：59-64
[36]蔡新玲,刘宇,康岚,等.陕西省雷暴的气候特征.高原气象,2004,23(S0)：118-123
[37]戴建华,秦虹,郑杰,用TRMM/LIS资料分析长江三角洲地区的闪电活动.应用气象学报,2005,16(6)：728-736
[38]施能.气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法.北京：气象出版社,2008.114-116
[39]吴洪宝,吴蕾,气候变率诊断和预测方法.北京：气象出版社,2005,213-215
[40]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术.北京：气象出版社,2007.106-113
[2]梅卫群,江燕如.建筑防雷工程与设计.北京：气象出版社,2004
[3]肖稳安,张小青.雷电与防护技术基础.北京：气象出版社,2006
[4]陈渭民.雷电学原理(第二版).北京：气象出版社,2003
[5]Neumann C J. The thunderstorm of forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center. J. Appl. Meteor.1990,10:921-936
[6]Phillip D Falconer. A radar2based climatology of thunderstorm days across New York State. Journal of Applied Meteorology,1984,23:1115-1120
[7]David R Easterling. Persistent patterns of thunderstorm activity in the central United States. Journal of Climate,1990,3:1380-1389
[8]张敏锋,冯霞.我国雷暴天气的气候特征.热带气象学报.1998,14(2)：156-162
[9]Vonnegut B. Some facts and speculations concerning the origin and role of thunderdtorm Electricity. Meteorol Monogr.1963,5(27):211-221
[10][英]R. H. Golde著,周诗健,孙景群,译,阮忠家校,雷电北京：电力工业出版社.1982
[11]王道洪,郄秀书,郭昌明,编著,雷电与人工引雷.上海：上海交通大学出版社.2001,1—16,4546,87—88
[12]Colin Price, Evidence for a link between global lighming activity and upper tropospheric water vapour.NATURE, VOL 406,20 JULY,2000,290-292
[13]雷暴探测和雷电物理研究(中国科学院大气物理研究所集刊第4号)科学出版社.1976年1月第一版
[14]徐桂玉,杨修群.我国南方雷暴的气候特征研究.气象科学.2001,21(3)：299-307
[15]黄寅亮,陈济民,黄更生,不同发展阶段雷暴云中电荷的静电力散度分布及其动力作用.地球物理学报,1986,29(5)：520—525
[16]仇九子,雷暴云带电的理论研究.物理与工程.2002,1(12)：17-21
[17]郭风霞,张义军,郄秀书,言穆弘,雷暴云不同空间电荷结构数值模拟研究.高原气象.2003,22(3)：268-274
[18]孙安平,言穆弘,张义军,郄秀书,雷暴云下空间电荷层形成的数值研究.大气科学.2001,25(1)：16-24
[19]罗霞,陈渭民,李照荣,胡胜娟,李旭,雷暴云电结构与闪电关系初探.气象科学.2007,27(3)：280-286
[20]葛正谟,董万胜,雷暴云中闪电放电条件下的雨滴增长.高原气象.1996,15(2)：212-220
[21]李荣,王才伟,我国两类电结构不同的雷暴云.高电压技术.1998,24(1)：81-84
[22]Reap R M. Climatological characteristics and objective prediction of thunderstorms overAlaska. Wea. Forecasting,1991,6:309-319
[23]Ducrocq V, Tzanos D, senesi S. Diagnostic tools using a mesoscale NWP Model for the early warning of convection. Meteor. Appl.,1998,5:329-349
[24]Ravi N, Mohanty U C, Madan 0 E et als, Forecasting of thunderstorms in the pre—monsoon season at Delhi. Meteor. Appl.,1999,6:29-38
[25]吴健,陈毅芬,曾智聪,利用地面电场仪与闪电定位资料进行短时雷电预警的方法.气象与环境科学.2009,32(1)：47-50
[26]张义军,等,闪电探测技术发展和资料应用.应用气象学报.2006,17(5)：611-620
[27]孙景群.大气电学手册.北京：科学出版社,1995
[28]蒋正龙,湖南雷电定位系统定位算法的研究.湖南电力,2000,1(6)
[29]VAISALA.SAFIR Site Selection,Site CMA-3000.Wuhan Area,SITE SELECTION FINAL REPORT. VAISALA,2005
[30]VAISALA. Vaisala Thunderstrom Total Lighting Sensor LS7000/LS8000 USER'S GUIGE
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