大坝变形分析多测点统计模型的应用研究
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摘要
大坝的变形监测工作是获取大坝变形信息的最直接、最重要的方式之一,因此,对变形监测资料的深入分析工作,不仅仅是相关规范的要求,更是人们认清大坝变形规律、发现大坝安全隐患的重要信息来源之一,并为后续监测工作提供指导意义。本文在前人研究的基础之上,从统计学的角度出发,围绕“整体分析”这一主题,从全局的观点对大坝变形监测资料进行研究分析,主要研究工作及成果包括以下几个方面：
(1)大坝变形与环境因素关系的研究。
根据生存分析中的多事件风险比例模型的特点,对监测数据的转换,结合Cox比例风险模型以及多事件分层模型,从多测点的角度,对大坝变形的效应量与特征原因量的关系进行分析,突破以往所采用的统计模型仅能对单测点进行建模分析的局限,并应用该模型,对我国黄河小浪底水利枢纽工程的主坝区监测资料进行了分析研究。
(2)大坝自身变形规律的研究。主要包括：
①根据主坝上监测点分布的情况,结合所有监测点的位移量及速率变化情况,并参考目前诸多“强度”的概念,定义一个能够恰当反映变形体变形活动情况的新概念——位移强度,来反映大坝在外观上长期变形积累下的活动情况；并绘制了我国黄河小浪底水利枢纽工程的主坝体的位移强度分布图；
②分形理论中的“非倾向振荡分析(Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA)方法”是诊断非平稳时间序列分形标度特征和长期相关行为的有力工具,应用该分析法,对在特殊监测环境条件下的变形数据结果进行分析,从而可以得到变形体内在的活动规律。
(3)中小型大坝的监测数据处理分析方案的研究。
对我国特殊条件下产生的中小型水坝在管理方面现存的问题进行分析,并对我国现行大坝安全管理规范及技术标准进行总结,在技术层面上,提出针对我国中小型水坝的变形监测数据处理分析的方案：对现存的多年监测数据,以“点”—>“线”—>“体”为主线,逐步发掘有价值的“知识”,从全局的角度上对大坝在不同运行期间的变形活动情况进行评估分析,并且将此过程形成严格的监测数据处理分析的方案,为未来更好地开展大坝(尤其是中小型大坝)的监测工作提供科学依据。
Dam deformation monitoring is one of the most direct and important ways to obtaining the information of its deformation. Therefore, the work of deformation monitoring data in-depth analysis is not just the requirements of relevant norms, but also the one of important information sources to recognize the dam deformation laws, and find out its safety problems, which can provide guidance for follow-up monitoring work. This paper, based on previous studies, and a statistical point of view, focuses on the theme of "holistic analysis" to study on the dam deformation monitoring data from the global point of view. The main research work and achievements include the following aspects:
(1) Study on the environmental factors impact on the dam deformation
According to features of the multi-event proportional hazard model in survival analysis, the monitoring data is converted. Then the environmental factors impact on the dam deformation is calculated and analyzed from the perspective of multi-points, which can break through the limitations of single-point modeling analysis. And the analysis of main dam monitoring data in the China's Yellow River Xiaolangdi water and hydropower project in the paper is based on the proposed model.
(2) Research on the deformation law of the dam itself. Include mainly:
①According to of the distribution of monitoring points on the dam, the displacement of all monitoring points and their change of displacement rate, and referring to some concepts about "strength", a new concept—to reflect the deforming situation of the dam fittingly—is proposed, called "displacement strength", which can show the activity of the dam deformation accumulated in a long time. And the distribution image of the dam's displacement strength in China's Yellow River Xiaolangdi water and hydropower project is drawn.
②The method called detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) in the theory of fractal, can diagnose the fractal scaling features of the non-stationary time series and its long-termed-related behavior. For the monitoring data in the unusual environmental conditions, this method can find out the inner law of the dam.
(3)Research on the analysis program about monitoring data of medium-sized and small dams
The paper discusses and analyzes the problems about management in medium-sized and small dams, and sum up current dam safety management standards and technical standards in our country. From a technical point of view, the paper proposes the analysis program about monitoring data of medium-sized and small dams:along the main line from "point"->"line"->"body", mining the valuable knowledge progressively. Then the deformation activity in deferent phases can be analyzed and assessed from the overall point of view, which can offer the scientific basis for the future work of dam deformation monitoring, especially for the medium-sized and small dam.
(1)大坝变形与环境因素关系的研究。
根据生存分析中的多事件风险比例模型的特点,对监测数据的转换,结合Cox比例风险模型以及多事件分层模型,从多测点的角度,对大坝变形的效应量与特征原因量的关系进行分析,突破以往所采用的统计模型仅能对单测点进行建模分析的局限,并应用该模型,对我国黄河小浪底水利枢纽工程的主坝区监测资料进行了分析研究。
(2)大坝自身变形规律的研究。主要包括：
①根据主坝上监测点分布的情况,结合所有监测点的位移量及速率变化情况,并参考目前诸多“强度”的概念,定义一个能够恰当反映变形体变形活动情况的新概念——位移强度,来反映大坝在外观上长期变形积累下的活动情况；并绘制了我国黄河小浪底水利枢纽工程的主坝体的位移强度分布图；
②分形理论中的“非倾向振荡分析(Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA)方法”是诊断非平稳时间序列分形标度特征和长期相关行为的有力工具,应用该分析法,对在特殊监测环境条件下的变形数据结果进行分析,从而可以得到变形体内在的活动规律。
(3)中小型大坝的监测数据处理分析方案的研究。
对我国特殊条件下产生的中小型水坝在管理方面现存的问题进行分析,并对我国现行大坝安全管理规范及技术标准进行总结,在技术层面上,提出针对我国中小型水坝的变形监测数据处理分析的方案：对现存的多年监测数据,以“点”—>“线”—>“体”为主线,逐步发掘有价值的“知识”,从全局的角度上对大坝在不同运行期间的变形活动情况进行评估分析,并且将此过程形成严格的监测数据处理分析的方案,为未来更好地开展大坝(尤其是中小型大坝)的监测工作提供科学依据。
Dam deformation monitoring is one of the most direct and important ways to obtaining the information of its deformation. Therefore, the work of deformation monitoring data in-depth analysis is not just the requirements of relevant norms, but also the one of important information sources to recognize the dam deformation laws, and find out its safety problems, which can provide guidance for follow-up monitoring work. This paper, based on previous studies, and a statistical point of view, focuses on the theme of "holistic analysis" to study on the dam deformation monitoring data from the global point of view. The main research work and achievements include the following aspects:
(1) Study on the environmental factors impact on the dam deformation
According to features of the multi-event proportional hazard model in survival analysis, the monitoring data is converted. Then the environmental factors impact on the dam deformation is calculated and analyzed from the perspective of multi-points, which can break through the limitations of single-point modeling analysis. And the analysis of main dam monitoring data in the China's Yellow River Xiaolangdi water and hydropower project in the paper is based on the proposed model.
(2) Research on the deformation law of the dam itself. Include mainly:
①According to of the distribution of monitoring points on the dam, the displacement of all monitoring points and their change of displacement rate, and referring to some concepts about "strength", a new concept—to reflect the deforming situation of the dam fittingly—is proposed, called "displacement strength", which can show the activity of the dam deformation accumulated in a long time. And the distribution image of the dam's displacement strength in China's Yellow River Xiaolangdi water and hydropower project is drawn.
②The method called detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) in the theory of fractal, can diagnose the fractal scaling features of the non-stationary time series and its long-termed-related behavior. For the monitoring data in the unusual environmental conditions, this method can find out the inner law of the dam.
(3)Research on the analysis program about monitoring data of medium-sized and small dams
The paper discusses and analyzes the problems about management in medium-sized and small dams, and sum up current dam safety management standards and technical standards in our country. From a technical point of view, the paper proposes the analysis program about monitoring data of medium-sized and small dams:along the main line from "point"->"line"->"body", mining the valuable knowledge progressively. Then the deformation activity in deferent phases can be analyzed and assessed from the overall point of view, which can offer the scientific basis for the future work of dam deformation monitoring, especially for the medium-sized and small dam.
引文
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