A公司并购XYZ公司空分资产的研究分析
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摘要
随着经济全球化和中国国内产业结构的调整不断深入的需要,国家在“十一五”期间推出了一系列的政策、法规,推进企业兼并重组,并允许外资参与国内并购,也直接促进了外资在中国并购市场的参与度。
并购的方式无外乎是并购方以现金出资,或者以股票作为对价、以债券换取等方式得到出让方的核心资产,来增强自身的核心竞争力和业务覆盖范围,获得持续发展的能力。这就涉及到并购的核心问题,就是如何对目标企业或资产定价。由于我国国内的并购发展时间短,而以往的并购案例又多具有行政色彩,所以用以参考和价格比较的意义不大。加上国内以前一直使用的资产净值和资产重置等估值方法,并不考虑并购后企业所额外获得的收益等,也越来越不被并购出让方满意。目前,国际上普遍采用贴现现金流量法进行估值,国内对该方法的研究和应用起步较晚,基本上是参照国际上的估值方法和过程。由于贴现现金流量法以未来现金流量预测为基础,然后进行贴现得出当前的价值,所以在执行过程中,也有其不确定性。特别是对未来现金收益的预测和贴现率的选择。所以,总结出一套行之有效的收益预测和贴现率的估算方法尤为重要。
本文站在A公司的视角上,采用贴现现金流量法对XYZ公司的空分资产的估值过程进行详细分析和计算。在运用贴现现金流量法的过程中,首先通过案例的分析选取贴现现金流量法的估值模型。然后运用公开市场的资料和本案例的实际数据,还原A公司对未来自由现金流量的预测和贴现率的选择,最终得出A公司的出价上限。
本文根据2010年和2011年的真实的运行数据,对运行成本和现金流量的预测进行了修正。新的贴现现金流量值显示本项目的回报率有可能会降至12.05%。作者总结了导致成本上升和回报下降的原因并对未来的运行给出了进一步的预测修正。
Corresponding with the economic globalization and the request of China's domestic industrial structure adjustment, China government has issued a series of policies, codes on corporation merging and restructuring.
M&A is that the buyer to get the seller's core assets through paying cash, shares and bond exchanging to enhance its Core competitiveness, market share and sustainable development. The critical problem is that how to value and price the corporation or an asset. As the M&A cases in China before are mostly intervened by authority, there is no more learning and practices sharing for current M&A deal. Moreover, the valuation methodologies in domestic merger and acquisition are mainly net asset valuation and asset replacement valuation etc. These valuation methodologies are more focus on the assets value and depreciation than the revenue from the future operation. That is the reason the seller does not like to take the price by these methodologies. For now, DCF is a common valuation methodology in western M&A deal. The domestic study and application on DCF is behindhand. In addition, a few evaluations are copy from western. DCF valuation is based on the estimate of future free cash flow and then to be discounted by a certain ratio to reflect the net present value of the valuation target. Therefore, it is not fully definite, especially for the choice of revenue forecast and discount rate. In a word, a set of guidance on revenue forecast and discount rate choosing are more important.
This paper introduces the analysis and calculation on air separation unit of XYZ by DCF on the viewpoint of company A. The progress of this case study is started from the evaluation of variable DCF models, and then recovers the free cash flow forecast and discounted rate decision by open market data, finally gets the upper limit of the price.
And according to the performance of2010and2011, the author has an update on cash flow estimate. The new results of the project return is12.05%which is lower than the evaluation of acquisition. The author summarizes the root causes that incurred such a result and give the forecast on future operations.
并购的方式无外乎是并购方以现金出资,或者以股票作为对价、以债券换取等方式得到出让方的核心资产,来增强自身的核心竞争力和业务覆盖范围,获得持续发展的能力。这就涉及到并购的核心问题,就是如何对目标企业或资产定价。由于我国国内的并购发展时间短,而以往的并购案例又多具有行政色彩,所以用以参考和价格比较的意义不大。加上国内以前一直使用的资产净值和资产重置等估值方法,并不考虑并购后企业所额外获得的收益等,也越来越不被并购出让方满意。目前,国际上普遍采用贴现现金流量法进行估值,国内对该方法的研究和应用起步较晚,基本上是参照国际上的估值方法和过程。由于贴现现金流量法以未来现金流量预测为基础,然后进行贴现得出当前的价值,所以在执行过程中,也有其不确定性。特别是对未来现金收益的预测和贴现率的选择。所以,总结出一套行之有效的收益预测和贴现率的估算方法尤为重要。
本文站在A公司的视角上,采用贴现现金流量法对XYZ公司的空分资产的估值过程进行详细分析和计算。在运用贴现现金流量法的过程中,首先通过案例的分析选取贴现现金流量法的估值模型。然后运用公开市场的资料和本案例的实际数据,还原A公司对未来自由现金流量的预测和贴现率的选择,最终得出A公司的出价上限。
本文根据2010年和2011年的真实的运行数据,对运行成本和现金流量的预测进行了修正。新的贴现现金流量值显示本项目的回报率有可能会降至12.05%。作者总结了导致成本上升和回报下降的原因并对未来的运行给出了进一步的预测修正。
Corresponding with the economic globalization and the request of China's domestic industrial structure adjustment, China government has issued a series of policies, codes on corporation merging and restructuring.
M&A is that the buyer to get the seller's core assets through paying cash, shares and bond exchanging to enhance its Core competitiveness, market share and sustainable development. The critical problem is that how to value and price the corporation or an asset. As the M&A cases in China before are mostly intervened by authority, there is no more learning and practices sharing for current M&A deal. Moreover, the valuation methodologies in domestic merger and acquisition are mainly net asset valuation and asset replacement valuation etc. These valuation methodologies are more focus on the assets value and depreciation than the revenue from the future operation. That is the reason the seller does not like to take the price by these methodologies. For now, DCF is a common valuation methodology in western M&A deal. The domestic study and application on DCF is behindhand. In addition, a few evaluations are copy from western. DCF valuation is based on the estimate of future free cash flow and then to be discounted by a certain ratio to reflect the net present value of the valuation target. Therefore, it is not fully definite, especially for the choice of revenue forecast and discount rate. In a word, a set of guidance on revenue forecast and discount rate choosing are more important.
This paper introduces the analysis and calculation on air separation unit of XYZ by DCF on the viewpoint of company A. The progress of this case study is started from the evaluation of variable DCF models, and then recovers the free cash flow forecast and discounted rate decision by open market data, finally gets the upper limit of the price.
And according to the performance of2010and2011, the author has an update on cash flow estimate. The new results of the project return is12.05%which is lower than the evaluation of acquisition. The author summarizes the root causes that incurred such a result and give the forecast on future operations.
引文
[1]中国国务院新闻办公室.中国的和平发展白皮书[M].北京：人民出版社,2011：9
[2]郑媛.企业价值评估方法研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士论文.2005：25-30
[3]张宪房,张新华,王琳.产权交易中企业价值评估方法研究[M].当代经济.2009(20)
[4]Irving Fisher. The Nature of Capital and Income[M]. New York:The Macmillan Co. 1906
[5]朱伟.我国保险公司价值的评估与提升研究[D].西南财经大学硕士论文.2008：35-38
[6]车小娟.企业并购中目标企业价值评估的研究[D].辽宁工程技术大学硕士论文.2004：23-35
[7]Williams. The Theory of Investment Value [M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press, 1938
[8]Myron J.Gordon. The Investment, Financing and Valuation of the Corporation [M]. Homewood III:Irwin, 1962
[9]杨燕.UMS企业并购EL公司的价值评估[D].华南理工大学硕士论文.2011
[10]Jensen Michael C. Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeover [J]. American Economic Review.May 1978
[11]汤姆·科普兰.价值评估[M].电子工业出版社出版,1996
[12]苏敏.自由现金流量与现代财务理论-评詹森的自由现金流量的代理成本、公司财务与收购一书[J].经济与管理研究
[13]Black and Scholes. The Pricing of Option and Corporate Liabilities [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1973,81(3):637-659
[14]杨晓君.我国企业价值收益法评估模型的应用研究[D].首都经济贸易大学硕士论文.2006
[15]阿尔弗洛德·拉帕波特著.创造股东价值[M].于世艳等翻译.云南人民出版社,2002
[16]张先治.论以现金流量为基础的价值评估[J].求是学刊.2000(11)：40-45
[17]罗键.非上市企业资产收益和风险的研究[J].南京金融高等专科学校学报.2000(4)：28-32
[18]王丰,宣国良.经济利润及现金流贴现模型在企业价值评估中的应用研究[J].当代经济科学.2001(9)：82-85
[19]汪平.财务估价论[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2000
[20]李麟,李骥.企业价值评估与价值增长[M].民主与建设出版社,2001
[21]高波.企业价值评估的现金流量与企业寿命周期探析[J].中国资产评估.2002(6)：23-26
[22]赵秀云.论公司理财中的实物期权及其价值评估[J].现代财经.2002(10)：54-57
[23]李延喜,张启銮,李宁.基于动态现金流量的企业价值评估模型研究.科研管理.2003(3)：21-29
[24]郜志宇,冯连胜,沈琦.收益法价值评估中贝塔系数(B)的理论及其应用[J].中国资产评估.2007(3).
[25]James C Bonbright. The valuation of property [J]. Council for Research in the Social Sciences
[26]刘格辉,孙静.探析市盈率法在企业价值评估中的运用[J].湖南财经高等专科学校学报.2006(2)
[27]MBA智库百科http://wiki.chinaemba.cn
[28]周叔敏.资产基础法中单项资产评估的方式方法[M].中国资产评估.2003-04-15
[29]中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要[Z].中华人民共和国全国人民代表大会常务委员会公报.2006-04-15
[30]冷兵.我国空分设备产业发展形式研究[J].商场现代化.2009(03)
[31]王璐,王沁.中国股市与债市波动特征对比研究：2002-2007[J].统计与决策.2008(08)
[32]张秀凤.我国工业气体稳健驶在“高速路”[N].中国化工报.2011-9-7
[33]张艳纯.企业价值评估贴现模型的比较研究[J].特区经济.2005(02)
[34]王影慧.企业并购决策的定量方法研究[J].天津理工学院学报.2003(9)[35]徐青,西方企业价值评估方法综述[J].现代管理科学.2005(7)
[36]胡锁军,许敏,杨琦.企业并购过程中的价值评估方法与模型分析[J].价值工程.2003(7).
[37]俞明轩.企业价值评估[J].中国人民大学出版社,2004
[38]陈珠明,赵永伟.企业并购：成本收益与价值评估.经济管理出版社,2003
[39]萧松华,刘明月.购并中目标企业定价分析[J].商业研究.2004
[40]马莎·阿姆拉姆.实物期权[M].机械工业出版社,2001
[41]李延喜,张启銮,李宁.基本动态现金流量的企业价值评估模型研究[J].科学管理.2003
[42]顾芳.外资并购国有企业的问题研究[J].渤海大学学报.2006(03)
[43]唐绪兵,罗安国,钟叶姣.西方外资并购规制的经验与启示[J].科技和产业.2007(02)
[44]蒋则中.企业收购与兼并[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004
[45]王少豪.高新技术企业价值评估[M].中信出版社,2002
[46]Arrow, K. J. Vertical Integration and Communication [J]. Bell Journal of Economics. 1975(6)
[47]Aston D. and Tippett M. Systematic risk and empirical research [J]. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, vol.25
[48]Fisher I. The Nature of Capital and Income [M]. New York:The Macmillan Co.1906
[49]Franco Modigliani, Merton H. Miller. The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance, and The Theory of Investment [J]. The American Economic Review.1958
[50]Heaton, J. Managerial optimism and corporate finance [J]. Financial management. 2002(31)
[51]John Burr Williams. The Theory of Investment Value [M]. Cambridge Mass:Harvard University Press.1938
[52]Myers, S.C. The Capital Structure Puzzle [J]. Journal of Finance.1984
[53]Miller M, Modigliani Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares [J]. Journal of Business.1961(34)
[54]Merton H. Miller, Franco Modigliani. Corporation Income Taxes and the Cost of Capital:A Correction [J]. The American Economic Review. June 1963
[55]Moeller S., Schlingemann F., Stutz R. Wealth Destruction on A Massive Scale A Study of Acquiring-firm Returns in the Recent Merger Wave [J]. The Journal of Finance. 2005(60)
[56]Nelson, R. Merger Movements in the American Industry [M]. New York:NBER, 1959
[57]Ohlson J. A Synthesis of Security Valuation Theory and the Role of Dividends, Cash Flows, and Earnings [J]. Contemporary Accounting Research. 1991
[58]Tom Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Marlin. Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies [M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons.1990
[2]郑媛.企业价值评估方法研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士论文.2005：25-30
[3]张宪房,张新华,王琳.产权交易中企业价值评估方法研究[M].当代经济.2009(20)
[4]Irving Fisher. The Nature of Capital and Income[M]. New York:The Macmillan Co. 1906
[5]朱伟.我国保险公司价值的评估与提升研究[D].西南财经大学硕士论文.2008：35-38
[6]车小娟.企业并购中目标企业价值评估的研究[D].辽宁工程技术大学硕士论文.2004：23-35
[7]Williams. The Theory of Investment Value [M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press, 1938
[8]Myron J.Gordon. The Investment, Financing and Valuation of the Corporation [M]. Homewood III:Irwin, 1962
[9]杨燕.UMS企业并购EL公司的价值评估[D].华南理工大学硕士论文.2011
[10]Jensen Michael C. Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeover [J]. American Economic Review.May 1978
[11]汤姆·科普兰.价值评估[M].电子工业出版社出版,1996
[12]苏敏.自由现金流量与现代财务理论-评詹森的自由现金流量的代理成本、公司财务与收购一书[J].经济与管理研究
[13]Black and Scholes. The Pricing of Option and Corporate Liabilities [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1973,81(3):637-659
[14]杨晓君.我国企业价值收益法评估模型的应用研究[D].首都经济贸易大学硕士论文.2006
[15]阿尔弗洛德·拉帕波特著.创造股东价值[M].于世艳等翻译.云南人民出版社,2002
[16]张先治.论以现金流量为基础的价值评估[J].求是学刊.2000(11)：40-45
[17]罗键.非上市企业资产收益和风险的研究[J].南京金融高等专科学校学报.2000(4)：28-32
[18]王丰,宣国良.经济利润及现金流贴现模型在企业价值评估中的应用研究[J].当代经济科学.2001(9)：82-85
[19]汪平.财务估价论[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2000
[20]李麟,李骥.企业价值评估与价值增长[M].民主与建设出版社,2001
[21]高波.企业价值评估的现金流量与企业寿命周期探析[J].中国资产评估.2002(6)：23-26
[22]赵秀云.论公司理财中的实物期权及其价值评估[J].现代财经.2002(10)：54-57
[23]李延喜,张启銮,李宁.基于动态现金流量的企业价值评估模型研究.科研管理.2003(3)：21-29
[24]郜志宇,冯连胜,沈琦.收益法价值评估中贝塔系数(B)的理论及其应用[J].中国资产评估.2007(3).
[25]James C Bonbright. The valuation of property [J]. Council for Research in the Social Sciences
[26]刘格辉,孙静.探析市盈率法在企业价值评估中的运用[J].湖南财经高等专科学校学报.2006(2)
[27]MBA智库百科http://wiki.chinaemba.cn
[28]周叔敏.资产基础法中单项资产评估的方式方法[M].中国资产评估.2003-04-15
[29]中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要[Z].中华人民共和国全国人民代表大会常务委员会公报.2006-04-15
[30]冷兵.我国空分设备产业发展形式研究[J].商场现代化.2009(03)
[31]王璐,王沁.中国股市与债市波动特征对比研究：2002-2007[J].统计与决策.2008(08)
[32]张秀凤.我国工业气体稳健驶在“高速路”[N].中国化工报.2011-9-7
[33]张艳纯.企业价值评估贴现模型的比较研究[J].特区经济.2005(02)
[34]王影慧.企业并购决策的定量方法研究[J].天津理工学院学报.2003(9)[35]徐青,西方企业价值评估方法综述[J].现代管理科学.2005(7)
[36]胡锁军,许敏,杨琦.企业并购过程中的价值评估方法与模型分析[J].价值工程.2003(7).
[37]俞明轩.企业价值评估[J].中国人民大学出版社,2004
[38]陈珠明,赵永伟.企业并购：成本收益与价值评估.经济管理出版社,2003
[39]萧松华,刘明月.购并中目标企业定价分析[J].商业研究.2004
[40]马莎·阿姆拉姆.实物期权[M].机械工业出版社,2001
[41]李延喜,张启銮,李宁.基本动态现金流量的企业价值评估模型研究[J].科学管理.2003
[42]顾芳.外资并购国有企业的问题研究[J].渤海大学学报.2006(03)
[43]唐绪兵,罗安国,钟叶姣.西方外资并购规制的经验与启示[J].科技和产业.2007(02)
[44]蒋则中.企业收购与兼并[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004
[45]王少豪.高新技术企业价值评估[M].中信出版社,2002
[46]Arrow, K. J. Vertical Integration and Communication [J]. Bell Journal of Economics. 1975(6)
[47]Aston D. and Tippett M. Systematic risk and empirical research [J]. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, vol.25
[48]Fisher I. The Nature of Capital and Income [M]. New York:The Macmillan Co.1906
[49]Franco Modigliani, Merton H. Miller. The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance, and The Theory of Investment [J]. The American Economic Review.1958
[50]Heaton, J. Managerial optimism and corporate finance [J]. Financial management. 2002(31)
[51]John Burr Williams. The Theory of Investment Value [M]. Cambridge Mass:Harvard University Press.1938
[52]Myers, S.C. The Capital Structure Puzzle [J]. Journal of Finance.1984
[53]Miller M, Modigliani Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares [J]. Journal of Business.1961(34)
[54]Merton H. Miller, Franco Modigliani. Corporation Income Taxes and the Cost of Capital:A Correction [J]. The American Economic Review. June 1963
[55]Moeller S., Schlingemann F., Stutz R. Wealth Destruction on A Massive Scale A Study of Acquiring-firm Returns in the Recent Merger Wave [J]. The Journal of Finance. 2005(60)
[56]Nelson, R. Merger Movements in the American Industry [M]. New York:NBER, 1959
[57]Ohlson J. A Synthesis of Security Valuation Theory and the Role of Dividends, Cash Flows, and Earnings [J]. Contemporary Accounting Research. 1991
[58]Tom Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Marlin. Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies [M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons.1990