中国灾害管理制度变迁与绩效研究
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摘要
本研究以制度变迁理论、经济增长理论、演化博弈理论为理论基础,把理论分析与实证分析、比较分析、均衡分析、历史分析与实地调研相结合,应用经济增长模型、演化博弈模型等方法,沿着“阶段划分-因素分析-绩效分析-政策建议”的思路展开,形成先总后分再总,先因后果的分析模式,力求思路清晰、结构严谨。综合研究我国灾害管理制度变迁的特征,揭示其变迁的内在规律及阶段性；总体研究影响灾害管理制度变迁的的关键因素；在前人研究的基础上,思考衡量我国灾害管理制度绩效的方法,采用将有灾和无灾时的经济增长率进行对比从而确定灾害管理制度绩效的方法；借助索洛经济增长模型和哈罗德-多马经济增长模型,构建我国灾害管理制度绩效模型；以我国1989-2008年的国民经济数据和5.12地震对四川省经济增长的影响作实证研究,深入分析灾害管理制度对全国经济和区域经济增长的影响；从较长时间尺度分析我国灾害管理制度变迁的总体趋势,对其基本规律进行识别并作出制度性解释；最后,从制度创新角度提出提升我国灾害管理制度绩效的对策建议。
全文主要包括理论研究、定性研究、定量研究和对策研究四个部分。
本文第一章详细分析了选题的研究背景、研究意义和研究目标,并对选题的国内外研究现状进行了重点阐述。
文章第二章、第三章是理论研究部分。第二章从灾害管理制度历史变迁的背景出发,通过不同的角度和层面阐述了制度变迁理论、演化博弈理论和经济增长理论在研究灾害管理制度中的作用,同时也揭示了我国灾害管理制度绩效评价的理论基础；第三章在前人研究的基础上,对灾害管理理论的含义、要素、原则和灾害管理制度重新进行了定义,并简单分析了我国现阶段的灾害管理制度现状,最后对美国和日本两国的灾害管理制度进行了比较,以期能对我国的灾害管理制度改革提供借鉴意义。
文中第四章和第五章是定性研究部分,是本篇论文的核心部分之一。第四章从历史变迁的角度出发,对我国古代救灾制度和救灾思想的演进进行了简单梳理,重点分析了我国现代灾害管理制度变迁的历程,将我国现代灾害管理制度变迁分为初步形成阶段(1949-1978年)、恢复与调整阶段(1978-1989年)、改革与发展阶段(1989-1998年)和科学管理阶段(1998年至今)等四个阶段,并对其阶段性特征和变迁特点进行了概述,最后指出了我国现行灾害管理制度存在的主要问题。在上一章研究的基础上,第五章分析了影响我国灾害管理制度变迁的关键因素,即经济基础、制度环境、非正式规则和技术因素,并指出我国灾害管理中的利益相关者之间的关系博弈是推动我国灾害管理制度变迁的主要动力机制,最后分析了灾害管理制度变迁的演化机理。
文中第六章是定量研究部分,也是本篇论文的核心部分。本章首先分析了灾害与经济增长的关系,提出了研究灾害管理制度绩效可以从研究灾害对经济增长的影响入手的新的研究思路,然后借助索洛经济增长模型和哈罗德-多马经济增长模型分析灾害发生以后经济增长的变动情况说明灾害管理制度的绩效,最后选择1989-2008年这二十年间的数据进行实证研究,得出了在绝大部分年份,无灾时的经济增长率比实际经济增长率低的结论,即有灾害管理制度时的绩效高于没有灾害管理制度时的绩效。同时通过分析5.12地震对四川经济的影响程度得出了在某些发生大灾、重灾时的年份,实际经济增长率低于无灾时的经济增长率,即灾害管理制度绩效为负。
第七章是对策研究部分。根据第六章评价结果,本章提出了提升我国灾害管理制度绩效的对策建议,即进行灾害管理制度创新,包括理念的创新、法律制度的创新、组织管理的创新、体系创新、实施国家风险管理战略和建立巨灾保险制度等。第八章对需要进一步研究的问题进行了展望,对主要研究结论进行了梳理。
通过本文的研究,可能在以下几个方面取得创新：
1、本文在哲学思辨、档案史志资料分析、实地调研和前人研究成果的基础上,将目前经济学界比较热门的制度变迁理论应用于灾害管理的研究中,对我国灾害管理制度的变迁,特别是现代灾害管理制度变迁进行了跨学科专题性研究,是一种方法论上的创新。同时,本选题的研究成果能够完善灾害经济学的研究内容,拓宽其研究领域,巩固其研究理论基础。另外本人利用国内外的许多知名搜索引擎进行搜索,到目前为此还没有发现类似的相关文献。
2、目前我国正处于经济发展与社会变革的关键时期,研究灾害管理制度的历史变迁,找出变迁规律,分析存在的问题,评价制度绩效,总结经验和教训,为以后灾害管理制度的创新提供有价值的参考依据。同时,本文的研究取得了一系列有价值的结论。一是研究发现我国灾害管理制度具有明显的规律性,其演进过程可以划分为四个不同的阶段,即1949至1978年的初步形成阶段、1978至1989年为恢复与调整阶段、1989至1998年为改革与发展阶段,1998年以后为科学管理阶段。二是我国现代灾害管理制度变迁具有明显的特点,表现为：从单一救灾政策向救助体系转变；从中央政府统包揽一切到分级管理；救灾工作不断社会化；救灾工作从混乱走向规范化；救灾减灾能力逐步提高。三是我国现代灾害管理制度与经济基础、政治事情息息相关,其中尤以十一届三中全会的召开和社会主义市场经济体制改革影响最大。四是与灾害管理制度变迁相关联的利益主体日益多样化,包括中央和地方、国家和社会、社会和灾民。五是进行实证研究得出,在绝大多数年份里灾害管理制度能有效促进灾后经济的快速恢复,但是在一些大灾重灾年份,灾害管理制度绩效为负。
Based on institutional change theory, economic growth theory, evolutionary game theory, management science, disaster science, resource environment economics, and insurance science, and combined with theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, comparative analysis, equilibrium analysis, historical analysis and spot investigation, we apply the practical economy increasing model and evolutionary game model on this research to form a analyzing model which discuss problem form the general aspect to partial and from reason to result under the thought of "stage divide—factor analyzing—performance analyzing—policy suggestion", trying hard to achieve a clear mind and a precise construction. We try to expose the inner rules, stages, and critical factors in the vicissitude through the characteristics of disaster management system transition. On the basis of the former research, we try to make out the measure methods of disaster management system performance, by the method of comparing the economic increasing ratio with disaster and without disaster to figure out an effective method. We try to construct disaster management system performance model in our nation by means of Solow and Harrod-Domar model of economic development. Taking the national economic data between 1989 and 2008, and the influence of the earthquake in 12th, May to economic development in Sichuan province for empirical research, we analyze deeply the influence of disaster management system to the national and district economic development, analyze the whole trend of its management system transition from long-time aspect, recognize its basic principle and give a institutional explain. Finally, we will put forward the countermeasures and suggestions in order to advance the national disaster management system performance from the aspect of institutional innovation.
This paper mainly contains four parts:theoretical research, qualitative study, quantitative study and countermeasure research.
The first chapter analyzes the research background, significance, and target of topic selection in details.
The second and third chapter is the theoretical research. Chapter 2 describes the function of the system transition theory, evolutionary game theory, and economic growth theory in disaster management system research through different aspects and levels, and reveals the theoretical basis of performance evaluation in disaster management system at the same time. Chapter 3 gives the definition of the implication, factors, principles of disaster management theory and system inaugurated, analyzes simply the current situation of disaster management system in China now, and compares this kind of system between America and Japanese, hoping to provide disaster management system reformation with reference meaning in China.
Chapter four and five, which use the method of qualitative research, is the core part of the whole paper. Chapter four makes a brief sort on the evolution of Chinese ancient disaster-relief system and the disaster-relief idea, in the terms of historical angle, paying emphasis on the development of the Chinese recent disaster management system, and dividing it into four periods: preliminary formation phrase (1949-1978); recovery and modification phrase (1978-1989); revolution and development phrase (1989-1998) and scientific management phrase (1998 to now). The paper makes the summary of characteristics of each phrase and the vicissitude features, and points out the major problems of the current management system at last. Based on the research of the last chapter, Chapter five analyzes the key factors influencing the vicissitude, which are economic base, institutional environment, informal rule and technology, and points out that the main impetus of the vicissitude is the relation game among the benefit-relating people in the disaster management system. In the end, the chapter analyzes its evolutionary mechanism.
Chapter six, using the method of quantitative research, is also a core part. At first, it analyzes the relation between the disaster and economic growth, brings forward a research model of focusing on the influence of disaster to economic growth in system performance research, and then analyzes the variation of economic growth after the disaster by using the Solow Model and Harrod-Doma Model, so as to show the performance of disaster management system. At last, the paper chooses the data from 1989 to 2008 to conduct an empirical research, drawing the conclusion that in most years, the economic growth rate when no disaster happens is lower than that when the disaster happens, which means that the performance with the disaster management system is better than that without the system. At the same time, through analyzing the influence of the earthquake on 12th, May to economy in Sichuan province the paper draws the conclusion that the real economic growth rate is lower than that without disasters when heavy and huge disasters happen, which means the performance of disaster management system is negative.
Chapter seven is the research on the solution. According to the evaluation result made in last chapter, this part brings out some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the performance of China's disaster management systOem, which is to innovate the system itself, including the innovation on the idea, the law, the organizational management, the system and performance the national risk management strategy to build the heavy disaster insurance system, and so on. Chapter eight makes prospect on the problem which still needs the further research, and summarizes the major research conclusion.
This paper may have breakthroughs in the following aspects through the research:
1. The research in this paper applies the theory of institutional change theory which is popular in the economic circles into disaster management research, based on philosophy speculation, reference material analysis, the spot investigation and the research together with the former research results. The interdisciplinary and monographic research on China's institutional change of disaster management, particularly in modern times, is an innovation in methodology. And also, the research results can serve as the completion of economic research on disasters, as they broaden its field of research and consolidate its theoretical basis. Besides, the author, by far, haven't found any similar literature from the searching results of many famous search engines both home and abroad.
2. Currently, it is a crucial juncture during the process of economic development and social reform for China. And, China is one of the countries which suffer greatly from disasters. The disaster occurs so frequently that it greatly threatens people's life and property. It is an urgent task to study the historical changes of disaster management system, find out the laws in the changes, analyze existing problems, evaluate the system performance, and sum up experiences and lessons learnt from the process so as to guide the innovation of disaster management system. And also, Several valuable conclusions can be drawn from the research. First of all, the laws in historical changes of disaster management system in China are revealed. Its evolution can be divided into 4 stages, namely, the preliminary formation phrase from 1949 to 1978; the recovery and modification phrase from 1978 to 1989; the revolution and development phrase from 1989to 1998; and scientific management phrase from 1998 ever since. Secondly, the changes of modern disaster management system in China have obvious characteristics, i.e. the transformation from simple relief policy to relief system; from monopolization of central government to management at different levels; from chaos to order, which increase the participation of the society in relief efforts, and the capacity of disaster mitigation. Thirdly, our modern institution of disaster management is closely related to economy and politics, especially influenced by the Third Plenary Session of the 11 th Central Committee of the CPC, and the socialistic market economy reform. Fourthly, the changes of disaster management system benefit an increasingly diversified subject group, including central and local governments, the nation and the society, the society and victims of disasters. Lastly, the empirical research suggests that disaster management system can effectively promote the post-economic recovery in most of years, while in years with heavy and huge disasters, the system performance is negative.
全文主要包括理论研究、定性研究、定量研究和对策研究四个部分。
本文第一章详细分析了选题的研究背景、研究意义和研究目标,并对选题的国内外研究现状进行了重点阐述。
文章第二章、第三章是理论研究部分。第二章从灾害管理制度历史变迁的背景出发,通过不同的角度和层面阐述了制度变迁理论、演化博弈理论和经济增长理论在研究灾害管理制度中的作用,同时也揭示了我国灾害管理制度绩效评价的理论基础；第三章在前人研究的基础上,对灾害管理理论的含义、要素、原则和灾害管理制度重新进行了定义,并简单分析了我国现阶段的灾害管理制度现状,最后对美国和日本两国的灾害管理制度进行了比较,以期能对我国的灾害管理制度改革提供借鉴意义。
文中第四章和第五章是定性研究部分,是本篇论文的核心部分之一。第四章从历史变迁的角度出发,对我国古代救灾制度和救灾思想的演进进行了简单梳理,重点分析了我国现代灾害管理制度变迁的历程,将我国现代灾害管理制度变迁分为初步形成阶段(1949-1978年)、恢复与调整阶段(1978-1989年)、改革与发展阶段(1989-1998年)和科学管理阶段(1998年至今)等四个阶段,并对其阶段性特征和变迁特点进行了概述,最后指出了我国现行灾害管理制度存在的主要问题。在上一章研究的基础上,第五章分析了影响我国灾害管理制度变迁的关键因素,即经济基础、制度环境、非正式规则和技术因素,并指出我国灾害管理中的利益相关者之间的关系博弈是推动我国灾害管理制度变迁的主要动力机制,最后分析了灾害管理制度变迁的演化机理。
文中第六章是定量研究部分,也是本篇论文的核心部分。本章首先分析了灾害与经济增长的关系,提出了研究灾害管理制度绩效可以从研究灾害对经济增长的影响入手的新的研究思路,然后借助索洛经济增长模型和哈罗德-多马经济增长模型分析灾害发生以后经济增长的变动情况说明灾害管理制度的绩效,最后选择1989-2008年这二十年间的数据进行实证研究,得出了在绝大部分年份,无灾时的经济增长率比实际经济增长率低的结论,即有灾害管理制度时的绩效高于没有灾害管理制度时的绩效。同时通过分析5.12地震对四川经济的影响程度得出了在某些发生大灾、重灾时的年份,实际经济增长率低于无灾时的经济增长率,即灾害管理制度绩效为负。
第七章是对策研究部分。根据第六章评价结果,本章提出了提升我国灾害管理制度绩效的对策建议,即进行灾害管理制度创新,包括理念的创新、法律制度的创新、组织管理的创新、体系创新、实施国家风险管理战略和建立巨灾保险制度等。第八章对需要进一步研究的问题进行了展望,对主要研究结论进行了梳理。
通过本文的研究,可能在以下几个方面取得创新：
1、本文在哲学思辨、档案史志资料分析、实地调研和前人研究成果的基础上,将目前经济学界比较热门的制度变迁理论应用于灾害管理的研究中,对我国灾害管理制度的变迁,特别是现代灾害管理制度变迁进行了跨学科专题性研究,是一种方法论上的创新。同时,本选题的研究成果能够完善灾害经济学的研究内容,拓宽其研究领域,巩固其研究理论基础。另外本人利用国内外的许多知名搜索引擎进行搜索,到目前为此还没有发现类似的相关文献。
2、目前我国正处于经济发展与社会变革的关键时期,研究灾害管理制度的历史变迁,找出变迁规律,分析存在的问题,评价制度绩效,总结经验和教训,为以后灾害管理制度的创新提供有价值的参考依据。同时,本文的研究取得了一系列有价值的结论。一是研究发现我国灾害管理制度具有明显的规律性,其演进过程可以划分为四个不同的阶段,即1949至1978年的初步形成阶段、1978至1989年为恢复与调整阶段、1989至1998年为改革与发展阶段,1998年以后为科学管理阶段。二是我国现代灾害管理制度变迁具有明显的特点,表现为：从单一救灾政策向救助体系转变；从中央政府统包揽一切到分级管理；救灾工作不断社会化；救灾工作从混乱走向规范化；救灾减灾能力逐步提高。三是我国现代灾害管理制度与经济基础、政治事情息息相关,其中尤以十一届三中全会的召开和社会主义市场经济体制改革影响最大。四是与灾害管理制度变迁相关联的利益主体日益多样化,包括中央和地方、国家和社会、社会和灾民。五是进行实证研究得出,在绝大多数年份里灾害管理制度能有效促进灾后经济的快速恢复,但是在一些大灾重灾年份,灾害管理制度绩效为负。
Based on institutional change theory, economic growth theory, evolutionary game theory, management science, disaster science, resource environment economics, and insurance science, and combined with theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, comparative analysis, equilibrium analysis, historical analysis and spot investigation, we apply the practical economy increasing model and evolutionary game model on this research to form a analyzing model which discuss problem form the general aspect to partial and from reason to result under the thought of "stage divide—factor analyzing—performance analyzing—policy suggestion", trying hard to achieve a clear mind and a precise construction. We try to expose the inner rules, stages, and critical factors in the vicissitude through the characteristics of disaster management system transition. On the basis of the former research, we try to make out the measure methods of disaster management system performance, by the method of comparing the economic increasing ratio with disaster and without disaster to figure out an effective method. We try to construct disaster management system performance model in our nation by means of Solow and Harrod-Domar model of economic development. Taking the national economic data between 1989 and 2008, and the influence of the earthquake in 12th, May to economic development in Sichuan province for empirical research, we analyze deeply the influence of disaster management system to the national and district economic development, analyze the whole trend of its management system transition from long-time aspect, recognize its basic principle and give a institutional explain. Finally, we will put forward the countermeasures and suggestions in order to advance the national disaster management system performance from the aspect of institutional innovation.
This paper mainly contains four parts:theoretical research, qualitative study, quantitative study and countermeasure research.
The first chapter analyzes the research background, significance, and target of topic selection in details.
The second and third chapter is the theoretical research. Chapter 2 describes the function of the system transition theory, evolutionary game theory, and economic growth theory in disaster management system research through different aspects and levels, and reveals the theoretical basis of performance evaluation in disaster management system at the same time. Chapter 3 gives the definition of the implication, factors, principles of disaster management theory and system inaugurated, analyzes simply the current situation of disaster management system in China now, and compares this kind of system between America and Japanese, hoping to provide disaster management system reformation with reference meaning in China.
Chapter four and five, which use the method of qualitative research, is the core part of the whole paper. Chapter four makes a brief sort on the evolution of Chinese ancient disaster-relief system and the disaster-relief idea, in the terms of historical angle, paying emphasis on the development of the Chinese recent disaster management system, and dividing it into four periods: preliminary formation phrase (1949-1978); recovery and modification phrase (1978-1989); revolution and development phrase (1989-1998) and scientific management phrase (1998 to now). The paper makes the summary of characteristics of each phrase and the vicissitude features, and points out the major problems of the current management system at last. Based on the research of the last chapter, Chapter five analyzes the key factors influencing the vicissitude, which are economic base, institutional environment, informal rule and technology, and points out that the main impetus of the vicissitude is the relation game among the benefit-relating people in the disaster management system. In the end, the chapter analyzes its evolutionary mechanism.
Chapter six, using the method of quantitative research, is also a core part. At first, it analyzes the relation between the disaster and economic growth, brings forward a research model of focusing on the influence of disaster to economic growth in system performance research, and then analyzes the variation of economic growth after the disaster by using the Solow Model and Harrod-Doma Model, so as to show the performance of disaster management system. At last, the paper chooses the data from 1989 to 2008 to conduct an empirical research, drawing the conclusion that in most years, the economic growth rate when no disaster happens is lower than that when the disaster happens, which means that the performance with the disaster management system is better than that without the system. At the same time, through analyzing the influence of the earthquake on 12th, May to economy in Sichuan province the paper draws the conclusion that the real economic growth rate is lower than that without disasters when heavy and huge disasters happen, which means the performance of disaster management system is negative.
Chapter seven is the research on the solution. According to the evaluation result made in last chapter, this part brings out some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the performance of China's disaster management systOem, which is to innovate the system itself, including the innovation on the idea, the law, the organizational management, the system and performance the national risk management strategy to build the heavy disaster insurance system, and so on. Chapter eight makes prospect on the problem which still needs the further research, and summarizes the major research conclusion.
This paper may have breakthroughs in the following aspects through the research:
1. The research in this paper applies the theory of institutional change theory which is popular in the economic circles into disaster management research, based on philosophy speculation, reference material analysis, the spot investigation and the research together with the former research results. The interdisciplinary and monographic research on China's institutional change of disaster management, particularly in modern times, is an innovation in methodology. And also, the research results can serve as the completion of economic research on disasters, as they broaden its field of research and consolidate its theoretical basis. Besides, the author, by far, haven't found any similar literature from the searching results of many famous search engines both home and abroad.
2. Currently, it is a crucial juncture during the process of economic development and social reform for China. And, China is one of the countries which suffer greatly from disasters. The disaster occurs so frequently that it greatly threatens people's life and property. It is an urgent task to study the historical changes of disaster management system, find out the laws in the changes, analyze existing problems, evaluate the system performance, and sum up experiences and lessons learnt from the process so as to guide the innovation of disaster management system. And also, Several valuable conclusions can be drawn from the research. First of all, the laws in historical changes of disaster management system in China are revealed. Its evolution can be divided into 4 stages, namely, the preliminary formation phrase from 1949 to 1978; the recovery and modification phrase from 1978 to 1989; the revolution and development phrase from 1989to 1998; and scientific management phrase from 1998 ever since. Secondly, the changes of modern disaster management system in China have obvious characteristics, i.e. the transformation from simple relief policy to relief system; from monopolization of central government to management at different levels; from chaos to order, which increase the participation of the society in relief efforts, and the capacity of disaster mitigation. Thirdly, our modern institution of disaster management is closely related to economy and politics, especially influenced by the Third Plenary Session of the 11 th Central Committee of the CPC, and the socialistic market economy reform. Fourthly, the changes of disaster management system benefit an increasingly diversified subject group, including central and local governments, the nation and the society, the society and victims of disasters. Lastly, the empirical research suggests that disaster management system can effectively promote the post-economic recovery in most of years, while in years with heavy and huge disasters, the system performance is negative.
引文
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