供电企业现场作业风险管理系统研究
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摘要
随着国网公司“SG186”工程的推进,以及科学技术水平的不断提高,各供电企业信息化水平迅速提高,智能电网时代的已悄然来临,信息技术逐渐成为促进企业结构优化,提高企业运行效率的重要手段。在企业生产技术大力发展背景下,研究如何在信息化条件下更合理、更科学的实现安全管理成为当务之急。
本论文在研究国内外安全管理方法、模型等基础上,结合国内供电企业安全管理现状,为企业引入安全风险管理模式,根据国内供电企业信息化大力发展的现状,把风险管理技术和信息化相结合,以信息化带动安全风险管理技术的发展。在课题风险分析评估中采用层次分析法(AHP),对供电企业安全生产活动中的各环节,包括设备、人员、环境、管理等可能存在的风险因素进行全面的分析和辨识,建立全面的风险库和预控措施库,并用信息化手段建立企业现场作业风险管理系统。
基于层次分析法(AHP)开发了供电企业现场作业风险管理系统。该系统进一步梳理供电企业安全管理流程,规范供电企业现场作业,有效提高了供电企业安全管理水平。系统切合实际、操作简单、功能完备、智能化程度较高,很好地促进了供电企业的安全管理从事后管理向事前预测控制转变,实现安全风险管理的预控、可控。此外,系统具有良好的扩展性、共享性、集成性等,从而较好地提升了供电企业生产管理水平。
As the State Grid Corporation "SG186" works promoting and the level of science and technology improving, the level of power supply enterprise information rapidly developing, and the age of smart grid has been coming.Information technology has become an important means of structural optimization for companies and improving the enterprise operation efficiency. In the background of production technology developing quickly, the research of how to achieve security management in the more reasonable and scientific under condition of information is a top priority.
In this thesis, we introduce security risk management model for enterprise , which based on the research of security management and model from taking in the advanced experience home and domenstic, and the combination of domestic status of power supply enterprise security management. According to the status quo of the domestic power supply enterprise information developing quickly, we combine risk management techniques with information and utile information to promote the development of security risk management techniques. At the process of risk analysis and evaluation, we chose Analytic Hierarch Process (AHP). We conduct a comprehensive analysis and identification in all aspects of production activities, including the equipment, the personnel, the environment, the management and other risk factors, which possibly exists. Then we establish a comprehensive risk database and pre-control measures database, and set up a enterprise site operation risk management system with information technology means.
We develop the power supply enterprise site operation risk management system based on the Analytic Hierarch Process (AHP). The system combs process of enterprise safety management further, standardize enterprise site operations, and effectively improve the enterprise security management. The system is practical, simple, full-featured, and has high degree of intelligence.The system chang the site operation security management from management after accident to the prior predictive control. The system achieves prevention and control of security risk management, and control well at last.In addition, the system has good scalability, sharing, integration and other characteristics, thus to enhance the overall level of electricity production management.
本论文在研究国内外安全管理方法、模型等基础上,结合国内供电企业安全管理现状,为企业引入安全风险管理模式,根据国内供电企业信息化大力发展的现状,把风险管理技术和信息化相结合,以信息化带动安全风险管理技术的发展。在课题风险分析评估中采用层次分析法(AHP),对供电企业安全生产活动中的各环节,包括设备、人员、环境、管理等可能存在的风险因素进行全面的分析和辨识,建立全面的风险库和预控措施库,并用信息化手段建立企业现场作业风险管理系统。
基于层次分析法(AHP)开发了供电企业现场作业风险管理系统。该系统进一步梳理供电企业安全管理流程,规范供电企业现场作业,有效提高了供电企业安全管理水平。系统切合实际、操作简单、功能完备、智能化程度较高,很好地促进了供电企业的安全管理从事后管理向事前预测控制转变,实现安全风险管理的预控、可控。此外,系统具有良好的扩展性、共享性、集成性等,从而较好地提升了供电企业生产管理水平。
As the State Grid Corporation "SG186" works promoting and the level of science and technology improving, the level of power supply enterprise information rapidly developing, and the age of smart grid has been coming.Information technology has become an important means of structural optimization for companies and improving the enterprise operation efficiency. In the background of production technology developing quickly, the research of how to achieve security management in the more reasonable and scientific under condition of information is a top priority.
In this thesis, we introduce security risk management model for enterprise , which based on the research of security management and model from taking in the advanced experience home and domenstic, and the combination of domestic status of power supply enterprise security management. According to the status quo of the domestic power supply enterprise information developing quickly, we combine risk management techniques with information and utile information to promote the development of security risk management techniques. At the process of risk analysis and evaluation, we chose Analytic Hierarch Process (AHP). We conduct a comprehensive analysis and identification in all aspects of production activities, including the equipment, the personnel, the environment, the management and other risk factors, which possibly exists. Then we establish a comprehensive risk database and pre-control measures database, and set up a enterprise site operation risk management system with information technology means.
We develop the power supply enterprise site operation risk management system based on the Analytic Hierarch Process (AHP). The system combs process of enterprise safety management further, standardize enterprise site operations, and effectively improve the enterprise security management. The system is practical, simple, full-featured, and has high degree of intelligence.The system chang the site operation security management from management after accident to the prior predictive control. The system achieves prevention and control of security risk management, and control well at last.In addition, the system has good scalability, sharing, integration and other characteristics, thus to enhance the overall level of electricity production management.
引文
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[2]湖北省电力行业协会课题组.新形势下电网安全生产管理研究[J].电业政策研究,2007(12):8-13.
[3] Li Wenyuan. Risk Assessment of Power Systems-Models, Methods, and Applications [M]. A John Wiley & Sons, tnc., Publication. 2005.
[4] W.Pai S. Evaluating Unavailability of Equipment Aging Failures [R]. IEEE Power Engineering Review, 2002(2):52—54.
[5] Vaahedi E, Li W, Chia T, Dommel H. Large Scale Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment Using B.C. Hydro’S On-line Tools [J]. IEEE Trans. On Power Systems, 2002, 15(2):661～667.
[6]吴濡生.将电网安全风险管理向纵深推进[J].国家电网,2007(7).
[7]朱奇栋,张伟.风险管理在电力安全生产管理中的实际意义[J].今日科苑2009.16.
[8]王永干.积极推进电力行业全面风险管理[J].中国电力企业管理, 2008(11).
[9]孟炜,李巍,杨建民.在电力生产管理中运用风险控制的思考[J].内蒙古电力技术, 2004, 22(5):13. 19.
[10] Dibyendu Das, Bruce F, Wollenberg. Risk Assessment of Generators Bidding in Day-Ahead Market[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2005, 20(1):4l6-424.
[11] Eman Ni,Peter B, Luh, Stephen Rourke. Optimal Integrated Generation Bidding and Scheduling with Risk Management under a Deregulated Power Market[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2004, l9(1):70-76.
[12]辨析电力全面风险管理——体系篇[J].中国电力企业管理, 2008(11):13.?
[13]王晓红.供电企业安全风险管理的应用[J].科技博览1009-914X(2009)32-0092-01
[14]黄泽源.积极推进安全生产风险管理体系建设[J].电力安全技术2009.5
[15] International Conference and Workship on Reliability and Risk Management. Se ptember 15-18, 1998. Adma’Mark Hotel San Antonio Riverwalk Texas.
[16] Rechenthin, David. Project safety as a sustainable competitive advantage. Journal of Saefty Research, v35, n3, 2004:297-308.
[17] QimingChen, McCalley, J.D.Identifying high risk N-K contingeneies for online Security assessment, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(2):823-834
[18]陆波,唐国庆.基于风险的安全评估方法在电力系统中的应用[J].电力系统自动化, 2000, 1 l(25):61-64.
[19] NIM, MCCAL LEY J D,VITTAI V,et a1. On line risk based security assessment[J]. IEEE Transaction On Power Systems,2003,18(1):258—265.
[20]徐宁.风险管理在电力工程项目管理中的应用实施研究[J].甘肃科技2009.12.
[21]杨显诚.安全性评价与危险点分析的比较[J].云南电力技术, 2007.(5).
[22]周家启,卢继平,胡小正.等译.电力系统风险评估--模型,方法和应用[M].北京科学出版社,2006.
[23]郭爱玲,于晓东.基于区间层次分析法的网络安全风险评估高会生[J],电力科学与工程2009.3
[24] Satty.T.L.Axiomatic Foundation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Management Science, Vo1.32,No.7(Ju1.,1986),851-855
[25]高会生.基于改进层次分析法的电力光纤通信网风险评估[J].华北电力大学学报, 2008, 35(1):98-101.
[26] Satty.T.L. Fundaments of Decision Making and Prority Theory with the Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. RWS Publication,1994.
[27] Mustafa M A,FAI-Bahar J.Project risk assessment using the analytic hierarchy process[J].IEEE Trans on Engineering Management,1991,1(38):46-52
[28]宋晓莉,余静,孙海传等.模糊综合评价法在风险评估中的应用[J].微计算机信息,2006,22(12).
[29] Zadeh L.A. Fuzzy Sets as a Basis for Theory of Possibility[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1978,(1):3-28
[30] KUCHTA, DOROTAA. Use of fuzz numbers in project risk(criticality) assessment [J]. International Journal of Project Mananment, 2001(5): 305-310.
[31]王刚,韩立岩.基于信息嫡和回归分析的信用风险评估研究[J].运筹与管理,2003, 12(5):94-98
[32] Shannon CE.A mathematica1 theory of communication [J]. Bell Sys Tech J.1948.27.379-33.
[33] Shannon CE.A mathematica1 theory of communication [J]. Bell Sys Tech J.1948.27.623-659.
[34] Kapur J N.Kesavan H K. Entropy Optimization Principle with Application [M].San Diego: Academic Press.1992
[35]赵冬梅,张玉,马建蜂.熵权系数法应用于网络安全的模糊风险评估[J].计算机工程, 2004, 30(18):21-23.
[36]霍春勇,董玉华,高惠临等.管道故障树基本事件分析的德尔斐法[J].油气储运,2005, (01) .
[37]梁工谦,刘德智.安全管理模式的设计及机制研究[J].软科学2006.20.5
[38]韩宝庆.我国电力企业风险管理中存在的问题与对策[J].电力技术经济2009.6
[39]田雨平.电力企业安全风险评估管理知识问答[M].中国电力出版社2007-06-01
[40]刑玉广,惠嫌.电力企业风险管理探析[J].理论与实践,2009(2):94.
[41]王品刚,卓华.基于风险评估的设备维修方法的研究与应用[J].电力信息化, 2004,2(11):37-38
[42] Ivar Jacobson, Grady Booch, James Rumbaugh.统一软件开发过程[M].北京.机械工业出版社,2002.71-74.
[43] Charette. Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management [M]. McGraw Hill, 1989.
[44] The American Heritage Dictionary.2d college ed. [M] . Boston :Houghton Mifflin,1985.
[2]湖北省电力行业协会课题组.新形势下电网安全生产管理研究[J].电业政策研究,2007(12):8-13.
[3] Li Wenyuan. Risk Assessment of Power Systems-Models, Methods, and Applications [M]. A John Wiley & Sons, tnc., Publication. 2005.
[4] W.Pai S. Evaluating Unavailability of Equipment Aging Failures [R]. IEEE Power Engineering Review, 2002(2):52—54.
[5] Vaahedi E, Li W, Chia T, Dommel H. Large Scale Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment Using B.C. Hydro’S On-line Tools [J]. IEEE Trans. On Power Systems, 2002, 15(2):661～667.
[6]吴濡生.将电网安全风险管理向纵深推进[J].国家电网,2007(7).
[7]朱奇栋,张伟.风险管理在电力安全生产管理中的实际意义[J].今日科苑2009.16.
[8]王永干.积极推进电力行业全面风险管理[J].中国电力企业管理, 2008(11).
[9]孟炜,李巍,杨建民.在电力生产管理中运用风险控制的思考[J].内蒙古电力技术, 2004, 22(5):13. 19.
[10] Dibyendu Das, Bruce F, Wollenberg. Risk Assessment of Generators Bidding in Day-Ahead Market[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2005, 20(1):4l6-424.
[11] Eman Ni,Peter B, Luh, Stephen Rourke. Optimal Integrated Generation Bidding and Scheduling with Risk Management under a Deregulated Power Market[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2004, l9(1):70-76.
[12]辨析电力全面风险管理——体系篇[J].中国电力企业管理, 2008(11):13.?
[13]王晓红.供电企业安全风险管理的应用[J].科技博览1009-914X(2009)32-0092-01
[14]黄泽源.积极推进安全生产风险管理体系建设[J].电力安全技术2009.5
[15] International Conference and Workship on Reliability and Risk Management. Se ptember 15-18, 1998. Adma’Mark Hotel San Antonio Riverwalk Texas.
[16] Rechenthin, David. Project safety as a sustainable competitive advantage. Journal of Saefty Research, v35, n3, 2004:297-308.
[17] QimingChen, McCalley, J.D.Identifying high risk N-K contingeneies for online Security assessment, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(2):823-834
[18]陆波,唐国庆.基于风险的安全评估方法在电力系统中的应用[J].电力系统自动化, 2000, 1 l(25):61-64.
[19] NIM, MCCAL LEY J D,VITTAI V,et a1. On line risk based security assessment[J]. IEEE Transaction On Power Systems,2003,18(1):258—265.
[20]徐宁.风险管理在电力工程项目管理中的应用实施研究[J].甘肃科技2009.12.
[21]杨显诚.安全性评价与危险点分析的比较[J].云南电力技术, 2007.(5).
[22]周家启,卢继平,胡小正.等译.电力系统风险评估--模型,方法和应用[M].北京科学出版社,2006.
[23]郭爱玲,于晓东.基于区间层次分析法的网络安全风险评估高会生[J],电力科学与工程2009.3
[24] Satty.T.L.Axiomatic Foundation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Management Science, Vo1.32,No.7(Ju1.,1986),851-855
[25]高会生.基于改进层次分析法的电力光纤通信网风险评估[J].华北电力大学学报, 2008, 35(1):98-101.
[26] Satty.T.L. Fundaments of Decision Making and Prority Theory with the Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. RWS Publication,1994.
[27] Mustafa M A,FAI-Bahar J.Project risk assessment using the analytic hierarchy process[J].IEEE Trans on Engineering Management,1991,1(38):46-52
[28]宋晓莉,余静,孙海传等.模糊综合评价法在风险评估中的应用[J].微计算机信息,2006,22(12).
[29] Zadeh L.A. Fuzzy Sets as a Basis for Theory of Possibility[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1978,(1):3-28
[30] KUCHTA, DOROTAA. Use of fuzz numbers in project risk(criticality) assessment [J]. International Journal of Project Mananment, 2001(5): 305-310.
[31]王刚,韩立岩.基于信息嫡和回归分析的信用风险评估研究[J].运筹与管理,2003, 12(5):94-98
[32] Shannon CE.A mathematica1 theory of communication [J]. Bell Sys Tech J.1948.27.379-33.
[33] Shannon CE.A mathematica1 theory of communication [J]. Bell Sys Tech J.1948.27.623-659.
[34] Kapur J N.Kesavan H K. Entropy Optimization Principle with Application [M].San Diego: Academic Press.1992
[35]赵冬梅,张玉,马建蜂.熵权系数法应用于网络安全的模糊风险评估[J].计算机工程, 2004, 30(18):21-23.
[36]霍春勇,董玉华,高惠临等.管道故障树基本事件分析的德尔斐法[J].油气储运,2005, (01) .
[37]梁工谦,刘德智.安全管理模式的设计及机制研究[J].软科学2006.20.5
[38]韩宝庆.我国电力企业风险管理中存在的问题与对策[J].电力技术经济2009.6
[39]田雨平.电力企业安全风险评估管理知识问答[M].中国电力出版社2007-06-01
[40]刑玉广,惠嫌.电力企业风险管理探析[J].理论与实践,2009(2):94.
[41]王品刚,卓华.基于风险评估的设备维修方法的研究与应用[J].电力信息化, 2004,2(11):37-38
[42] Ivar Jacobson, Grady Booch, James Rumbaugh.统一软件开发过程[M].北京.机械工业出版社,2002.71-74.
[43] Charette. Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management [M]. McGraw Hill, 1989.
[44] The American Heritage Dictionary.2d college ed. [M] . Boston :Houghton Mifflin,1985.