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农村财政支出对农村居民消费的影响分析
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摘要
2009年中央一号文件中指出,“扩大国内需求,最大潜力在农村;实现经济平稳较快发展,基础支撑在农业;保障和改善民生,重点难点在农民”。在金融危机的冲击下,扩大内需尤其是农村居民消费需求更显重要,而扩大内需主要依靠宏观调控,财政支出政策作为宏观调控的重要措施,应该得到合理的制定和贯彻。如何制定出切实有效的财政支出政策,以此来拉动农村居民消费,进而扩大内需,应对金融危机,实现经济平稳较快发展,需要进行针对性研究。正是在这样的背景下,提出本文的研究主题,农村财政支出对农村居民消费的影响。
     本文将农村财政支出分为财政支农支出和农村公共支出两大类,系统分析了它们对农村居民消费的影响,宏观数据与微观数据相结合,在对农村居民消费总支出进行分析的基础上,重点对农村居民家电的消费进行了研究。在对本文涉及的相关概念进行界定、对前人文献进行回顾的基础上,借鉴现有理论研究成果,对本研究的研究主题进行了详细的理论分析,提出了本文的研究假说和分析思路,以后各章在此分析思路的统领下展开。具体研究内容如下:
     研究内容一:对财政支农支出和农村公共支出的状况进行了统计分析。财政支农支出主要是对农业的财政投入,具体包括农业基本建设支出、支援农村生产和各项农业事业费支出、科技三项费用支出、补贴性支出和其他支出等。本部分采用基本的描述统计方法对1978-2007年财政支农支出的总量、比重、结构和不同主体支出的状况进行了分析。农村公共支出主要是财政对于农村基础设施和社会事业的支出,主要包括农村交通公共支出、农村电力公共支出、农村通讯公共支出、农村水利公共支出、农村教育公共支出、农村医疗卫生公共支出和农村社会保障公共支出。本部分采用图表结合的描述统计方法对1978-2007年农村公共支出和农村公共品供给状况进行了分析,为进一步的实证分析和对策建议的制定作铺垫。
     研究内容二:分析了财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响。根据资金使用目的和发挥作用的方式不同,可以将财政支农支出分为投入性支出和补贴性支出两大类。投入性支出是政府作为投资主体,以提供农业和农村公共产品和服务为目的,对农业和农村领域进行的投入。补贴性支出指政府对粮食生产、农业投入品等方面进行的补贴,这类补贴也称为保护性补贴。补贴性支出可以通过价格补贴或者直接补贴的形式直接增加农村居民的收入,而投入性支出主要是提供公共物品和服务,可以间接增加农村居民的收入,可以为消费提供条件,降低交易成本等,以此来促进消费。投入性支出与补贴性支出对农村居民消费的影响如何,哪一个对于扩大农村消费需求发挥的作用更大,需要实证数据的检验,为此本部分运用固定效应面板模型进行了分析,估计结果显示不管模型中包含还是不包含收入变量,投入性财政支农支出对农村居民消费均显示出显著的正向影响。投入性财政支农支出,不仅通过影响收入来间接影响消费,也可以直接影响消费,所以各地区加大对农业的投入性支出会拉动农村居民的消费。不管放入收入还是不放收入,估计结果都显示人均补贴与农村居民消费支出没有太明显的相关性。
     财政支农支出从支出主体上分为中央财政支出和地方财政支出,鉴于数据的可获得性,仅考虑了支援农村生产支出和各项事业费支出在不同主体上的支出结构,运用时间序列数据分析了中央和地方支援农村生产和各项事业费支出对农村居民消费支出的影响,实证结果显示,支援农村生产支出和各项事业费支出中,地方财政支出更能促进农村居民消费水平的提高。因此,加大中央政府的转移支付力度,平衡各地区的财政支出水平,让地方政府作为财政支出和财政分配的执行主体,能够更好地促进农村居民消费增长。本部分结论为进一步完善分税制和转移支付制度提供了相应的实证分析依据。
     研究内容三:分析了农村公共支出对农村居民消费的影响。党的十七大报告中首次将民生问题作为单独的一部分列出,这表明民生问题正成为我们党工作的重点。温家宝总理的政府工作报告中也一再强调“重视社会发展和改善民生”。可见,民生问题正受到党和政府的高度重视,在这样的背景下,本文借鉴他人研究,将农村公共支出分为基础设施类支出和民生消费类支出,分地区研究两类支出对农村居民消费的拉动作用。基础设施类支出可以增加农村居民就业,提高农村居民收入,为农村消费提供消费条件;民生消费类支出,可以降低农村居民的后顾之忧,降低农村居民预防性储蓄,促进农村居民消费水平的提高。基础设施类支出能够为农村居民的生产生活提供硬件支持,民生消费类支出则能够为农村居民生活提供软件保障,只有软硬件供给相协调,与经济发展水平相适应,才能更好地促进农村居民消费水平的提高。面板模型实证研究结果显示,在全国层面,基础设施类支出与民生消费类支出均对农村居民消费显示出正向显著影响;区域层面,东部地区基础设施类支出与民生消费类支出均呈现显著正向影响,中部和西部地区仅基础设施类支出对农村居民消费呈现正向影响,而民生消费类支出并没有表现出显著影响。可见,中部和西部地区的硬件建设仍旧是当前财政支出的重点,当然软件建设应当与硬件相配合。
     在此基础上,将农村公共支出进行具体细分,分为农村道路、农村水利、电力、通讯、医疗和社会保障等,运用实证模型分析了各项具体的公共支出项目对农村居民消费支出的影响,研究显示除了农村水利外,其他农村公共支出均对农村居民消费显示出显著的正向影响。
     研究内容四:从微观角度研究了农村公共品供给对农村居民家电消费的影响。宏观数据的加总会抹杀很多微观个体特征,故此,本部分利用来自CHNS的调查数据,在村庄层面分析了农村公共品供给状况对农村居民家电消费的影响,具体的公共品包括农村交通、电力、水利、医疗和市场状况等。研究发现,交通越发达,农村居民对三种家电(彩电、冰箱和洗衣机)的拥有可能性越高;每周断电天数越多,洗衣机的拥有概率越低;具有合作医疗的村庄,农村居民拥有冰箱和洗衣机的可能性较高;收看到央视和卫视的频道数越多的村庄,农村居民拥有彩电的可能性越高。本部分研究结论希望能够为家电下乡活动的进一步开展提供消费条件视角上的支撑。
     最后,总结全文,提出政策建议。在前面各章节理论与实证分析的基础上,总结归纳本文的研究结论,依据研究结论,从农村财政支出体制、财政农业投入性支出、农村基础设施支出、农村公共事业支出以及农村公共品供给角度提出了促进农村居民消费水平提高的对策建议。
The "First Document", sighed by the central in 2009, pointed out that "the greatest potential to expand domestic demand was in the rural areas, the foundation support to achieve stable and rapid economic development was in agriculture, the key and difficult to protect and improve people's livelihood was at the farmers" Under the impact of the financial crisis, to expand domestic demand, especially consumption demand of rural residents was even more important. The expansion of domestic demand mainly depended on macroeconomic control, expenditure policy as an important macro-control measures should be reasonable to develop and implement. How to develop effective fiscal expenditure policy in order to boost consumption of rural residents, further expand domestic demand, counter the financial crisis, achieve stable and rapid economic development, and was the need to conduct targeted research. It is in this context to propose the theme of this paper about the impact of rural financial expenditure on consumption of rural residents.
     In this article, the rural financial expenditure was divided into two major categories of financial expenditure for supporting agriculture and public expenditure in rural areas, then systematically analyzed their impact on the consumption of rural residents using macro data and micro data, and on the basis of the analysis of impact on total consumption expenditure of rural residents, with emphasis on the consumption of rural residents has been studied appliances. On the basis of defining the concepts involved in this paper and reviewing previous literatures, this paper conducted a detailed theoretical analysis drawing on existing theoretical research on the subject of this study, and put forward the hypothesis of this research to command later chapters. Specific study as follows:
     Part one:To describe financial expenditure for supporting agriculture and public expenditure in rural areas. Financial expenditure for supporting agriculture was mainly financial input in agriculture; consist of agricultural capital expenditure, expenditure to support rural production and various operating expenses, science and technology promotion funds in agriculture, subsidy expenditure and other expenses. This section analyzed 1978-2007 total expenditure for supporting agriculture, the proportion of expenditure structure and the status of different subjects using description of statistical methods. Rural public expenditure was primarily financial for the cause of rural infrastructure and social spending, including public expenditure in rural transport, rural electrification of public expenditure, public expenditure on rural communications, rural water public expenditure, and public expenditure on rural education, rural public spending on health care and public spending on social security in rural areas. This part was a description of statistical methods combined with the chart on the 1978-2007 public expenditure in rural areas and rural public goods supply situation, for further empirical analysis and strategy development to pave the way proposed.
     Part two:To Analyze the impact of the financial expenditure for supporting agriculture on consumption of rural residents. According to the purpose of using and the different ways of funds playing a role in, the financial expenditure for supporting agriculture can be divided into two main categories of investment expenditures and subsidy expenditures. Investment expenditures were the government's investment to provide agricultural and rural public goods and services to agriculture and rural areas. Subsidy expenditures were government's subsidies for food production, agricultural inputs, and also known as conservation subsidies. Subsidy expenditures can directly increase the income of rural residents by the price subsidies or direct subsidies, while the investment expenditure was to provide public goods and services to indirectly increase the income of rural residents, provide the conditions for the consumer, reduce transaction costs, ultimately to promote the consumption. How investment expenditures and subsidies influenced rural household consumption expenditure and whose impact was greater needed to be researched using data. So this part analyzed the impact of investment and subsidies expenditures on consumption of rural residents through fixed-effect panel model. The conclusions showed that whether or not the model including income, the impact of investment expenditures on consumption of rural residents were significantly positive. Investment expenditures can directly influence consumption of rural residents and indirectly influence consumption of rural residents through influencing income. Whether or not the model including income, estimates showed that the impacts of per capita subsidies on consumption of rural residents were not obvious.
     The financial expenditure for supporting agriculture was divided into central and local fiscal expenditure according of expenditure subject. This section only used 1978-2006 time-series data of the expenditure to support rural production and various operating expenses on the different expenditure subjects to analyze their impact on consumption of rural residents. The results showed that the impact of local fiscal expenditure was significantly positive, and the impact of central fiscal expenditure was not significant.
     Part three:To analyze the impact of public expenditure in rural areas on consumption of rural residents. The livelihood issues as a separate part was listed for the first time in the report of the Seventeenth Party Congress. Premier Wen Jiabao has also repeatedly stressed the importance of social development and improving people's livelihood in the government work report. These showed that the party and government was attaching great importance to people's livelihood. SO learning from others, this study divided public expenditure in rural areas into rural infrastructure and livelihood expenditures and researched their impact on consumption of rural residents through sub-regional perspective. Rural infrastructure expenditures could increase employment of rural residents, improve the income of rural residents, to provide consumer conditions for the rural consumer. Livelihood expenditures could reduce the worries of rural residents, reduce precautionary savings of rural residents, and improve consumption level of rural residents. Expenditures for infrastructure could provide hardware support for production and living of rural residents, livelihood expenditures was able to provide software to protect rural residents living. When hardware and software supplied coordinately and consistently with the economic development level the consumption level of rural residents could be improved. The results from panel data model showed that at the national level, the impact of infrastructure and livelihood expenditures on consumption of rural residents were all significantly positive. At the regional level, the impact of the expenditure on infrastructure and livelihood of the Eastern on rural residents' consumption were positive and significant; the impact of the expenditure on infrastructure on rural residents' consumption was positive and significant in the Central and the Western of China, the impact of the expenditure on livelihood were not significant. So the hardware of Central and Western regions were still the focus of the current fiscal expenditure.
     Next we divided rural public expenditures into rural roads, rural water, electricity, communications, medical and social security and so on. Then we used panel-data model to analyze the impact of rural public goods on rural residents' consumption, and the conclusion was that the impact of rural road, electric power. communication, medical treatment and social security on rural residents' consumption was positive and significant, but the impact of rural water was not significant.
     Part four:To research the impact of the rural public goods supply on the rural residents'consumption of household appliances from the micro perspective. Macro data would obliterate many individual characteristics, so that this part used the survey data from CHNS database to analyze the impact of rural public goods on the rural residents'ownership of household appliances. This part found that the days of outage per week negatively influenced the owner of washing machine; there was higher probability of the owner of refrigerator and washing machine in the village of a cooperative medical care; the effect of TV channels on the owner of color TV was positive; traffic had positive effect on the owner of three types of appliances. These conclusions could play a role to promote appliances to the countryside.
     Finally, we concluded the whole article and put forward countermeasures and suggestions. According to previous theory and empirical analysis, the conclusions of this paper were summarized. Based on research findings, we put forward suggestions to improve consumption level of rural residents in the areas of the rural financial expenditure system, financial agricultural investment expenditure, expenditure on rural infrastructure, rural social spending and rural public goods supply.
引文
1孙文基:《财政学》,中国财政经济出版社2008年版,第3页。
    2严格来讲,国家和政府不是同一个概念,现代政治学认为,国家与政府是两个互为联系的概念,国家是由居民、政府和领土组成的有机体。
    1杨之刚:《财政分权理论与基层公共财政改革》,经济科学出版社2006年版,第8页。
    1沈淑霞:《中国财政农业支持及其效率研究》,中国农业出版社,2007年
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