基于EVA的中国石油企业集团投资决策及管理机制研究
|
摘要
在国资委对中央企业实施EVA业绩考核的背景下,以价值最大化管理目标为指导,研究石油企业集团投资决策的机理,构建基于EVA的投资决策和管理机制,形成着眼长远的石油资源价值提升具有特别重要的指导意义。
在对国内外相关研究成果进行文献综述的基础上,针对已有研究的不足,从价值、风险、增长这三个维度出发,对中国石油企业集团的投资决策问题进行了深度研究,主要的贡献体现在以下方面:
第一,在分析内外部环境的基础上,根据石油企业集团投资决策的目标,论证EVA用于投资决策的机理,进而根据投资决策与价值、风险波动的相关性,建立石油企业集团包括价值、风险与增长三个维度在内的EVA投资决策研究框架。
第二,构建基于EVA的投资价值管理。以EVA价值驱动因素分析为桥梁,建立包括价值分析、价值改善、价值控制、价值激励四个阶段在内的价值管理环,整合财务战略、投资预算与融资策略,不仅满足投资决策的基本需要,更能实现投资的战略控制要求。
第三,研究基于EVA的投资风险分析。根据生命周期各阶段不同的管理需求,将风险分析方法应用到反映真实价值的EVA指标中来量化风险,做出更加灵活、准确的决策:基于实物期权方法测度EVA现金流的波动性,研究最佳投资时机的确定问题;基于风险承受力进行不确定环境约束下资源的分析与配置,解决最优投资组合等战术性资本预算问题等。
第四,分析中国石油企业集团的投资现状,构建基于熵权-TOPSIS方法的对标模型,对投资决策的效果进行评价,进而指出提高投资决策效率的主要途径,转变经济发展方式,促进经济结构调整,实现可持续发展。
第五,借助预算管理信息平台,结合年度的经营战略、投资重点及各种可能的环境变化等因素对投资价值的影响,构建中国石油企业集团包括运行机制、控制机制、激励机制、风险管理机制在内的价值管理机制,实现业务流、资金流、信息流和人力资源流的有机整合。
Under the background of EVA-based performance evaluation conducted by State Assets Administration Committee, it is of great importance for petroleum enterprise groups to study the mechanism of investment decision under the guidance of value maximization objectives. Research framework of EVA-based investment decision and its management mechanism are required, so that value enhancement of petroleum resources in the long run is formed.Therefore, on the basis of literature review at home and abroad, owing to the shortcomings of existing research, indepth research on investment decision of petroleum enterprise groups is conducted from three strategic dimensions of value, risk, growth. The main contributions are as follows:
Firstly, according to the objective of investment decision for petroleum enterprise groups, theory of EVA-based investment decision is illustrated, which proves relevance of investment decision with value and risk, and further establish framework of EVA-based petroleum enterprise groups’investment decisions including three dimensions of value, risk and growth.
Secondly, EVA-based investment value measurement and management is illustrated. On the basis of EVA value drivers, value management cycle including value analysis, value improvement, value control, value incentive stages are established. Through the integration of financial strategy, investment budget and financing strategy, not only the needs of investment decisions are met, the requirements of strategic control are also achieved.
Thirdly, EVA-based risk analysis techniques are studied. According to different management requirements during different lifecycle stages, risk analysis methods are applied into the EVA indicator that can truly reflect investment value, so as to make more flexible and accurate investment decision: EVA-based volatility analysis of investment cash flows by real option method is measured and optimal investment timing is thereafter determined; allocation of resources constrained by uncertainty is conducted based on investment risk tolerance, better addressing the optimal portfolio and other tactical capital budget problems.
Fourthly, according to the current situation of oil companies, benchmarking model based on entropy-TOPSIS is constructed to evaluate the efficiency of investment decision. Furthermore, main improvement approaches are pointed out, promoting transformation of economic development and economic restructuring to achieve sustainable development.
Fifthly, by virtue of budget management information platform, the value management including operating mechanism, control mechanism, incentive mechanism and risk management mechanism is constructed, combined with the impact of yearly business strategy, investment priorities and a variety of possible environmental changes and other factors on the investment value at the same time. Therefore, service flow, cash flow, information flow and human resources flow are organically integrated.
在对国内外相关研究成果进行文献综述的基础上,针对已有研究的不足,从价值、风险、增长这三个维度出发,对中国石油企业集团的投资决策问题进行了深度研究,主要的贡献体现在以下方面:
第一,在分析内外部环境的基础上,根据石油企业集团投资决策的目标,论证EVA用于投资决策的机理,进而根据投资决策与价值、风险波动的相关性,建立石油企业集团包括价值、风险与增长三个维度在内的EVA投资决策研究框架。
第二,构建基于EVA的投资价值管理。以EVA价值驱动因素分析为桥梁,建立包括价值分析、价值改善、价值控制、价值激励四个阶段在内的价值管理环,整合财务战略、投资预算与融资策略,不仅满足投资决策的基本需要,更能实现投资的战略控制要求。
第三,研究基于EVA的投资风险分析。根据生命周期各阶段不同的管理需求,将风险分析方法应用到反映真实价值的EVA指标中来量化风险,做出更加灵活、准确的决策:基于实物期权方法测度EVA现金流的波动性,研究最佳投资时机的确定问题;基于风险承受力进行不确定环境约束下资源的分析与配置,解决最优投资组合等战术性资本预算问题等。
第四,分析中国石油企业集团的投资现状,构建基于熵权-TOPSIS方法的对标模型,对投资决策的效果进行评价,进而指出提高投资决策效率的主要途径,转变经济发展方式,促进经济结构调整,实现可持续发展。
第五,借助预算管理信息平台,结合年度的经营战略、投资重点及各种可能的环境变化等因素对投资价值的影响,构建中国石油企业集团包括运行机制、控制机制、激励机制、风险管理机制在内的价值管理机制,实现业务流、资金流、信息流和人力资源流的有机整合。
Under the background of EVA-based performance evaluation conducted by State Assets Administration Committee, it is of great importance for petroleum enterprise groups to study the mechanism of investment decision under the guidance of value maximization objectives. Research framework of EVA-based investment decision and its management mechanism are required, so that value enhancement of petroleum resources in the long run is formed.Therefore, on the basis of literature review at home and abroad, owing to the shortcomings of existing research, indepth research on investment decision of petroleum enterprise groups is conducted from three strategic dimensions of value, risk, growth. The main contributions are as follows:
Firstly, according to the objective of investment decision for petroleum enterprise groups, theory of EVA-based investment decision is illustrated, which proves relevance of investment decision with value and risk, and further establish framework of EVA-based petroleum enterprise groups’investment decisions including three dimensions of value, risk and growth.
Secondly, EVA-based investment value measurement and management is illustrated. On the basis of EVA value drivers, value management cycle including value analysis, value improvement, value control, value incentive stages are established. Through the integration of financial strategy, investment budget and financing strategy, not only the needs of investment decisions are met, the requirements of strategic control are also achieved.
Thirdly, EVA-based risk analysis techniques are studied. According to different management requirements during different lifecycle stages, risk analysis methods are applied into the EVA indicator that can truly reflect investment value, so as to make more flexible and accurate investment decision: EVA-based volatility analysis of investment cash flows by real option method is measured and optimal investment timing is thereafter determined; allocation of resources constrained by uncertainty is conducted based on investment risk tolerance, better addressing the optimal portfolio and other tactical capital budget problems.
Fourthly, according to the current situation of oil companies, benchmarking model based on entropy-TOPSIS is constructed to evaluate the efficiency of investment decision. Furthermore, main improvement approaches are pointed out, promoting transformation of economic development and economic restructuring to achieve sustainable development.
Fifthly, by virtue of budget management information platform, the value management including operating mechanism, control mechanism, incentive mechanism and risk management mechanism is constructed, combined with the impact of yearly business strategy, investment priorities and a variety of possible environmental changes and other factors on the investment value at the same time. Therefore, service flow, cash flow, information flow and human resources flow are organically integrated.
引文
[1]贡翔,黄刚伟.中国石油、天然气战略资源分析[DB].中国能源信息网,http://oil.nengyuan.net/2009/1020/35197.html,2009.
[2] Teemu Malmi,Seppo Ik?heimo. Value based management practices—some evidence from the ?eld[J]. Management Accounting Research,2003,14(3):235–254.
[3] Osmundsen Petter,Mohn Klaus,Misund Bard et al. Is oil supply choked by ?nancial market pressures? [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(1):467–474.
[4] Aune Finn Roar,Mohn Klaus,Osmundsen Petter. Financial market pressure,tacit collusion and oil price formation [J]. Energy Economics,2010,32(2):389–398.
[5] Finch John H,Macmillan Fiona E,Simpson Graeme S. On the diffusion of probabilistic investment appraisal and decision-making procedures in the UK’s upstream oil and gas industry[J]. Research Policy,2002,31(6):969–988.
[6] Borgonovo E,Peccati L. Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in the evaluation of investment projects[J] International Journal of Production Economics,2006,104(1):62–73.
[7] Borgonovo E , Peccati L. Sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2004,90(1):17–25.
[8] Van Groenendaal Willem J H,Kleijnen Jack P C. On the assessment of economic risk : factorial design versus Monte Carlo methods[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1997,57(1):91-102.
[9] Kum Khiong Yang,Lee Choo Tay,Chee Chuong Sum. A comparison of stochastic scheduling rules for maximizing project net present value[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1995,85(2):327-339.
[10] Heidenberger Kurt,Schillinger Alexander,Stummer.Christian budgeting for research and development : a dynamic ?nancial simulation approach[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,2003,37(1):15–27.
[11] Caron Franco,Fumagalli Mauro,Rigamonti Alvaro. Engineering and contracting projects:a value at risk based approach to portfolio balancing[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2007,25(6):569–578.
[12] Chapman Chris,Howden Mike. Two phase parametric and probabilistic NPV calculations,with possible deferral of disposal of UK nuclear waste as an example [J]. Omega,1997,25(6):707-714.
[13] Zhou Wenchao,Gong Peichen. Multiple-use tradeoffs in Swedish mountain region forests[J]. Forest Policy and Economics,2005,7(1):39– 52.
[14] Begg S H,Bratvold R,Campbell J C. The value of flexibility in managing uncertainty in oil and gas investments[Z]. Proc. SPE ATCE,San Antonio,2002.
[15] Armstrong M,Galli A,Bailey W et al. Incorporating technical uncertainty in real option valuation of oil projects[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):67– 82.
[16] Accioly Ricardo de Melo e Silva,Chiyoshi Fernando Yassuo. Modeling dependence with copulas:a useful tool for field development decision process[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):83-91.
[17] Al-Harthy Mansoor,Begg Steve,Bratvold Reidar B. Copulas:a new technique to model dependence in petroleum decision making[J].Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2007,57(1):195-208.
[18] Bratvold R B,Begg S H. A new approach to uncertainty quantification for decision making[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,2010.
[19] Boris Asrilhant,Maureen Meadows,Robert Dyson. Techniques to support successful strategic project management in the UK upstream oil and gas sector[J]. European Management Journal,2006,24(3):214–225.
[20] Ekern S. An option pricing approach to evaluating petroleum projects[J]. Energy Economics,1988,10(2):91– 99.
[21] Copeland T,Koller T,Murrin J. Valuation:measuring and managing the value of companies[M]. New York:Wiley,1990.
[22] Kemma A G Z. Case studies on real options[J].Financial Management,1993,22(3):259– 270.
[23] Dixit A,Pindyck R S. Investment Under Uncertainty[M]. New Jersey:New Jersey University Press,1994.
[24] Laine J P. Option valuation of field development projects[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,1997.
[25] Walkup G W J N,Chatwin R E. Case studies of a real option approach to asset valuation in the petroleum industry[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,1999.
[26] Chorn L G,Shokhor S. Real options for risk management in petroleum development investments[J]. Energy Economics,2006,28(4):489–505.
[27] Franz Wirl. Energy conservation,expectations and uncertainty[J]. Energy Economics,2008,30 (4):1957–1972.
[28] Walls Michael R. Combining decision analysis and portfolio management to improve project selection in the exploration and production firm[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):55– 65.
[29] Walls Michael R. Corporate risk-taking and performance:a 20 year look at the petroleum industry[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2005,48(3):127– 140.
[30] Suslick Saul B,Furtado Ricardo. Quantifying the value of technological,environmental and financial gain in decision models for offshore oil exploration[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2001,32(2):115–125.
[31] Saleh J H,Marais K.Reliability:How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction,the net present value of reliability[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91(1):665–673.
[32]刘金兰,韩文秀,李光泉.大型工程建设项目风险分析方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996,(8):62-68.
[33]廖鲁海,谢霞.油气勘探开发投资风险分析的理论方法研究及应用[J].预测,1999,(3):56-58.
[34]赵奇峰,刘宏菊.基于模糊影响图的油气长输管道工程环境经济损益分析研究[J].石油工程建设,2006,32(6):5-10.
[35]罗东坤,汪华.石油勘探投资实物期权评价模型的建立及应用[J].石油学报,2007,28(6):147-150.
[36] Fan Ying,Zhu Lei. A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions[J]. Energy Economics,2010,32(3):627-637.
[37]赖亮光,郑明贵,袁怀雨.基于实物期权的海外矿业投资柔性决策模型[J].煤炭学报,2010,(6):1050-1054.
[38]安实,田季员.基于B-S期权定价法的投资决策[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,(12):2104-2107.
[39]张国兴,郭菊娥,刘东霖.建设时间和投资成本不对称的双寡头期权博弈模型[J].管理科学,2008,(4):75-81.
[40]郭晨,王锡凡,张显.基于效用函数的火电厂投资风险决策[J].电力系统自动化,2004,(4):11-16.
[41]詹丽,杨昌明,赵建华.圈闭预探项目的效用决策模式[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(12):54 - 59.
[42]王众,张哨楠,匡建超.基于动态MAUT的油气勘探风险决策模型研究[J].中国矿业,2010,19(1):110-113.
[43]熊淑娟,朱元琳.行为会计决策研究——基于国有企业决策问题[J].东方企业文化,2010,(2):13-14.
[44]李延喜,张启銮,李宁.基于动态现金流量的企业价值评估模型研究[J].科研管理,2003,24(2):24-27.
[45]刘彩霞.企业集团财务控制行为:动因、测度及相关分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009.
[46]汤谷良.财务控制新论:兼论现代企业财务控制的再造[J].会计研究,2000,(3):7-11.
[47]于增彪.我国集团公司预算管理运行体系的新模式——中原石油勘探局案例研究[J].会计研究,2001,(8):33-42.
[48]张先治.基于价值的企业集团预算控制系统—预算控制变量与预算控制标准确定[J].财经问题研究,2005,(6):78-84.
[49] Ittner Christopher D,Larcker David F. Assessing empirical research in managerial accounting : a value-based management perspective[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics,2001,32(1):349-410.
[50] Hansen Stephen C,Van der Stede Wim A. Multiple facets of budgeting: an exploratory analysis[J]. Management Accounting Research,2004,15(4):415-439.
[51] Nilsson Fredrik. Parenting styles and value creation: a management control approach[J]. Management Accounting Research,2000,11(1):89-112.
[52]汤谷良,林长泉.打造VBM框架下的价值型财务管理模式[J].会计研究,2003,(12):23-27.
[53] Oehmke James F. Anomalies in net present value calculations[J]. Economics Letters,2000,67(3):349–351.
[54] Prokopczuke Marcel,Racheva Svetlozar T,Schindlmayrd Gero et al. Quantifying risk in the electricity business:A RAROC-based approach[J].Energy Economics,2007,29(5): 1033-1049.
[55] Kierulff Herbert. MIRR:A better measure[J]. Business Horizons,2008,51(4):321—329.
[56] Osmundsen Petter,Asche Frank,Misund Brd et al. Valuation of international oil companies:The ROACE era [D]. IDEAS:CESifo working paper,2004.
[57] Nilsson Fredrik , Olve Nils-Goran. Control systems in multibusiness companies:From performance management to strategic management[J]. European Management Journal,2001,19(4):344-358.
[58] Teemu Malmi , Seppo Ik?heimo . 2003 . Value Based Management practices—some evidence from the ?eld[J].Management Accounting Research,14(3):235–254.
[59] Jakobsen Stig-Erik,Onsager Knut.The role and function of head offices:towards increased complexity[D].SNF-project No.4265,working paper,2003.
[60] Ramesh G,Ramanayya T V.Economic contribution of public passenger transport organisations—An application of EVA methodology[J].The Journal of Business Perspective,2007,11(3):25-34.
[61]王莲芬,蔡海鸥,孙宏才.投资决策量化方法[M].北京:海洋出版社,2006:21-30.
[62]夏恩君.项目投资决策分析:方法与技术[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2008:27-29.
[63] Lin Steven A Y. The modified internal rate of return and investment criterion[J]. The Engineering Economist,1976,21(4):237-247.
[64] Akitoshi Inoma. A new project evaluation tool—risked rate of return [Z]. SPE Asia Pacific Conference on Integrated Modelling for Asset Management,Japan,2000.
[65]柳海龙,王慧.金融风险管理[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2009:412-417.
[66] (美)詹姆斯·R.埃文斯,戴维·L.奥尔森.模拟与风险分析[M].洪锡熙译.上海:上海人民出版社,2001.
[67]苟三权.油田开发项目的风险分析方法综述[J].石油钻探技术,2007(2):87-90.
[68]韦艳华,张世英.Copula理论及其在金融分析上的应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008:128-140.
[69] Chien-Ta Ho,Yun-Shan Wu. Benchmarking performance indicators for banks[J].Benchmarking:An International Journal,2006,13(2):147-159.
[70] Goumas M G,Lygerou V A,Papayannakis L E. Computational methods for planning and evaluating geothermal energy projects[J]. Energy Policy,1999,(27):147-154.
[71] Lenos Trigeorgis.实物期权——灵活机动的管理和资源配置战略[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007:21-33.
[72]阿南德·圣瓦尔.公司投资组合管理优化——实现投资建议与组织战略的协同[M].孟宪伟,黄磊译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2010:102-118.
[73]张立凡.我国石油企业集团核心竞争力研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2006.
[74]张小利.创造价值的投资决策[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2006:23-24.
[75] Shrieves Ronald E,Wachowicz Jr,John M. Free Cash Flow (FCF),Economic Value Added (EVA),and Net Present Value (NPV)_A reconciliation of variations of Discounted-Cash-Flow (DCF) valuation[J]. Engineering Economist,2001,46(1):33-53.
[76] Daiva Burksaitiene. Measurement Of Value Creation: Economic Value Added and Net Present Value[J]. Economics & Management,2009,14(1):709-714.
[77] Minton Bernadette A,Schrand Catherine. The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1999,54(1):423-460.
[78]朴哲范.信息披露视角下企业价值评价理论与应用研究[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2008:56-59.
[79] Alf Alviniussen,Hakan Jankensgárd. Enterprise Risk Budgeting:bringing risk management into the financial planning process[J]. Journal of Applied Finance,2009,19 (1):178-192.
[80]张利庠.管理经济学[M].北京:北京交通大学出版社,2004.
[81] Ruud Weijermars. Accelerating the three dimensions of E&P clockspeed– A novel strategy for optimizing utility in the Oil & Gas industry[J]. Applied Energy,2009,86(10):2222-2243.
[82] Richard S. Warr. An empirical study of inflation distortions to EVA[J].Journal of Economics and Business,2005,57(1):119–137.
[83]汤谷良,杜菲.试论企业增长—盈利—风险三维平衡战略管理[J].会计研究,2004,(11):31-37.
[84]李延喜,张悦玫,司明军.创造会计背景下公司价值增长评价模型研究[J].管理评论,2005,(7):38-42.
[85] Abate James A,Grant James L,Stewart Iii.G. Bennett. The EVA style of investing[J].Journal of Portfolio Management,2004,30(4):61-72.
[86]陈钊.信息与激励经济学[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2005:90-101.
[87]王斌.中国国有企业业绩评价制度:回顾与思考[J].会计研究,2008,(11):21-28.
[88]赵治纲.EVA业绩考核理论与实务[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009:180-207.
[89]许学娜,王之君.基于战略导入的EVA管理决策模式初探[J].中国科技论坛,2011,(1):130-132 .
[90] Frank H M Verbeeten. Do organizations adopt sophisticated capital budgeting practices to deal with uncertainty in the investment decision : A research note[J].Management Accounting Research,2006,17(1):106-120.
[91] Smalley P C,Begg S H,Naylor M et al. Handling risk and uncertainty in petroleum exploration and asset management:an overview[J]. AAPG Bulletin,2008,92(10):1251-1261.
[92] Suslick S B,Schiozer D J. Risk analysis applied to petroleum exploration and production: an overview[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):1– 9.
[93] Berger Thomas,Bristow Gillian. Competitiveness [J]. International Advances in Economic Research,2009,15(4):378-392.
[94] Begg S H,Bratvold R,Campbell J C. Improving investment decisions using a stochastic integrated asset model[Z]. Proc. SPE ATCE,New Orleans,2001.
[95] Marco Antonio,Guimar?es Dias. Valuation of exploration and production assets: an overview of real options models[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):93– 114.
[96] Brealey R A,Myers S C. Principles of corporate finance[M]. New York:McGraw-Hill,1991.
[97] Brennan M J,Schwartz E S. Evaluating natural resource investments[J]. Journal of Business,1985,58(1):135–157.
[98] McDonald R,Siegel D. Investment and the valuation of firms when there is an option of shut down[J]. International Economic Review,1985,28(2):331– 349.
[99] McDonald R,Siegel D. The value of waiting to invest[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4):707–727.
[100] Abel A B,Eberly J C. The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1999,44(1):339–377.
[101] Caballero R J. Aggregate investment[D]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Working papers,1999:97-20.
[102] Smit Han T J,Trigeorgis Lenos. Strategic Investment:real options and games[M]. New Jersey:Princeton University Press,2004.
[103] Klaus Mohn,B?rd Misund. Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry[J]. Energy Economics,2009,31(2):240–248.
[104] Irene Henriques,Perry Sadorsky. The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment[J]. Energy Economics,2011,33(1):79-87.
[105] Ghosh Suvankar,Troutt Marvin D,Thornton John H et al.An empirical method for assessing the research relevance gap[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,201(3):942-948.
[106] McCormack J L,Vybeeswaran J. How to use EVA in the oil and gas industry[J] . Journal of Applied Corporation Finance,1998,11(3):109-131.
[107] Copeland T,Antikarov V. Real options:a practitioner’s guide[M]. New York:Texere LLC,2001.
[108] Costa Lima G A,Suslick S B. Estimating the volatility of mineral projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties[J].Resources Policy,2006,31(2):86–94.
[109] Ionu? Florescua,Cristian Gabriel P?s?ric?. A study about the existence of the leverage effect in stochastic volatility models[J]. Physica A,2009,388(1):419–432.
[110] (美)乔纳森·文.风险建模:应用蒙特卡罗,实物期权分析,预测,优化技术[M].王燕鸣译.北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[111] Lima G A C,Suslick S B,Bordieri C A. A quantitative method for estimation of volatility of oil production projects[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Texas,2005.
[112] Gallant L,Kieffel H,Chatwin R. Using Learning Models to Capture Dynamic Complexity in Petroleum Exploration[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,1999.
[113] Lin C-Y Cynthia. The investment timing game in petroleum production:An econometric model[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2005,355(1):62–68.
[114] Herath Hemantha S B,Park Chan S.Real option valuation and its relation to Bayesian decision-making methods[J].Engineering Economist,2001,46(1):1-32.
[115] Batvold R,Begg S H. I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong[J].AAPG Bulletin,2008,92(10):1373-1392.
[116] Bowman E H,Hurry D. Strategy through the Option Lens:an integrated view of resource investmens and the incremental-choice process[J]. Academy of Management Review,1993,18(4):772.
[117]刘明霞.不确定环境下的战略分析和运作:实物期权战略[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2009:101-107.
[118] Lenos Trigeorgis.实物期权——灵活机动的管理和战略资源配置战略[M].林谦译.北京:清华大学出版社,2007:30-40.
[119] Irakli Menabde. Valuation of Integrated Oil & Gas Companies : A comparative analysis of methodologies and empirical practices [D]. Kandidatafhandlinger,Graduate theses,2009.
[120] Jerry Jackson. Promoting energy ef?ciency investments with risk management decision tools[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(1):3865–3873.
[121]李瑛.决策统计分析[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2005:144-145.
[122]李腊生.不确定性决策与金融资产投资[M].广州:广东人民出版社,2002:53-60.
[123] Campbell J C,Begg S H,Bratvold R B. Portfolio optimization:living up to expectations?[Z].SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas,2003.
[124]陈立文.项目投资风险分析理论与方法[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005:206-220.
[125]尹志军,陈立文,李素红.项目全生命周期中收益与风险的协调机制研究[J].建筑经济,2007(4):60-62.
[126] Tyler P A,Mcvean J R.项目风险评价方法对P.A. Tyler等投资组合优化模型的作用[A].刘圣志,油气勘探开发经济评价译文集[A].北京:石油工业出版社,2002:21-29.
[127]刘志东.资产组合风险度量与选择优化——理论分析与实证研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2008.
[128]王震,王恺.基于Markowitz资产组合理论的油气勘探开发投资决策[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版).2008,32(1):152-155.
[129] Ross J G. Risk and uncertainty in portfolio characterisation[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):41– 53.
[130] Walls Michael R,Dyer James S. Risk propensity and firm performance: a study of the petroleum exploration industry[J]. Management Science,1996,42(7):1004-1021.
[131] Regis da Rocha Motta,Guilherme Marques Caloba,Ciro Jorge Appi et al. Combining preference theory and CAPM efficient frontier: towards an optimum portfolio of upstream projects[Z]. SEG,San Antonio,2001.
[132] Costa Lima Gabriel A,Suslick Saul B. Investment decision in oil and gas projects using real option and risk tolerance models[J]. Int. J. Oil,Gas and Coal Technology,2008,1(1):3-23.
[133] Walls M R. Corporate risk tolerance and capital allocation: a practical approach to implementing an exploration risk policy[J]. Journal of Petroleum Technology,1995,47(4):307– 311.
[134] Newendorp P D , Schuyler J R. Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration[M]. 2nd ed. Colorado:Planning Press,2000.
[135] Rose P R. Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures [J]. AAPG Explorer,2001,12(1):178-179.
[136] Popi Konidari,Dimitrios Mavrakis. A multi-criteria evaluation method for climate change mitigation policy instruments[J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(1):6235–6257.
[137]詹丽,杨昌明,赵建华.圈闭预探项目的效用决策模式[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(12):54 - 59.
[138]王众,张哨楠,匡建超.基于动态MAUT的油气勘探风险决策模型研究[J].中国矿业,2010,19(1):110-113.
[139] Bickel J Eric,Smith James E,Jennifer L Meyer. Modeling dependence among geologic risks in sequential exploration decisions[J]. Reservoir evaluation and engineering,2008,4:352-361.
[140] Welsh M.B.,Begg S.H. Modeling the Economic Impact of Individual and Corporate Risk Attitude[Z]. Proc. SPE ATCE,Denver,2008.
[141]董保民.信息经济学讲义[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005:29-38.
[142]李小健.国有公司财务管理机制研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2007.
[143]杨雄胜.高级财务管理[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2009.
[144]冯建.企业财务制度论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[145] Alviniussen Alf,Jankensg?rd H?kan.Enterprise risk budgeting:bringing risk management into the financial planning process[J].Journal of Applied Finance,2009,19(1):178-192.
[146] Bushman Robert M,Smith Abbie J. Financial accounting information and corporate governance[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics,2001,32(1):237–333.
[147]蒋元涛.基于现金流量的投资企业财务风险预警分析[J].财贸研究,2005,(4):84-87.
[148] Huggins Robert,Izushi Hiro. Regional Benchmarking in a global context:knowledge,competitiveness,and economic development[J].Economic Development Quarterly,2009,23(4):275-293.
[149]周嘉南,黄登仕.公司资本预算中的信息不对称与激励方案的设计[J].软科学,2003,(4):13-17.
[150] Fisher J G,Maines L A,Peffer S A et al. Using budgets for performance evaluation:effects of resource allocation and horizontal information asymmetry on budget proposals,budget slack,and performance[J].Accounting Review,2002,77(4):847-865.
[151] Otley David.Performance management:a framework for management control systems research[J].Management Accounting Research,1999,10(4):363–382.
[152] Bhimani Alnoor.Risk management,corporate governance and management accounting:Emerging interdependencies[J].Management Accounting Research,2009,20(1):2-5.
[153]许学娜,刘金兰.价值导向下的企业预算风险管理[J].统计与决策,2011,(6):167-169.
[154] Hansen Stephen C,Otley David T,Van der Stede Wim A.Practice developments in budgeting:an overview and research perspective[J].Journal of Management Accounting Research,2003,15(1):95-116.
[155] Collier Paul M , Berry Anthony J . Risk in the process of budgeting[J].Management Accounting Research,2002,13(3):273-297.
[156] Frowa Natalie,Marginson David,Ogden Stuart.“Continuous”budgeting:Reconciling budget ?exibility with budgetary control[J].Accounting Organizations and Society,2009,26(11):1-18.
[157]刘建国.企业战略风险识别、评估与动态预警研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2008.
[158]华小宁,梁文昭,陈昊.整合进行时——企业全面风险管理路线图[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2007:315-353.
[159] Slywotzky Adrian J , Drzik John . Countering the Biggest Risk of All[J].Harward Business Review,2005,83(4):79-88.
[160]叶陈刚,郑君彦.企业风险评估与控制[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2009:120-133.
[161]刘笑霞,李明辉.现代企业风险管理的系统化过程[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2009,(4):76-81.
[162]张瑞君.基于价值链的动态预算管理研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006,(1):66-67.
[163]胡杰武,万里霜.企业风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009:215-218.
[164] Herzog Natasa Vujica,Tonchia Stefano,Polajnar Andrej. Linkages between manufacturing strategy,benchmarking,performance measurement and business process reengineering[J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering,2009,57(3):963–975.
[165]王勇,许庆瑞.以战略为中心的业绩评价理论框架研究[J].科研管理,2001(9):128-139.
[166]金碚.竞争力经济学[M].广州:广东经济出版社,2003:38.
[167]张安军.经济全球化背景下中国石油企业竞争实力分析[J].国土资源情报,2009,(6):11-15.
[168]宋杰鲲,张在旭,孙宁.油田企业节能评价指标体系设计与应用[J].价值工程,2007,(3):6-9.
[169]许学娜,刘金兰,王之君.基于熵权TOPSIS法的企业对标评价模型及实证研究[J].情报杂志,2011,(1):78-82.
[170]席酉民.企业集团竞争力与业绩综合评价[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2004:59-61.
[171]关于提高资源型企业综合竞争力对策研究[DB] ,百度文库,http://wenku.baidu.com/view/cd3cb56648d7c1c708a1455d.html,2010-6-5.
[172]韩大匡.中国油气田开发现状、面临的挑战和技术发展方向[J].中国工程科学,2010,12(5):54-57.
[173]资源瓶颈制约进一步加大[DB].中国石油石化,http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20100820/12088518226.shtml,2010-08-20.
[174]周吉平.中国石油2009可持续发展报告[DB]. http://www.petrochina.com.cn/Resource/pdf/xwygg/2009kcxfzbg_jt.pdf,2009,2010:6-7.
[175]迟振国.解读战略任务之一:原油持续稳产[DB].新华网黑龙江频道,http://www.hlj.xinhuanet.com/zt/2009-06/09/content_16761603.html,2009.
[176]曹如中.企业生态化管理:一种全新的管理范式[J].管理科学文摘,2006,(1):27-28.
[2] Teemu Malmi,Seppo Ik?heimo. Value based management practices—some evidence from the ?eld[J]. Management Accounting Research,2003,14(3):235–254.
[3] Osmundsen Petter,Mohn Klaus,Misund Bard et al. Is oil supply choked by ?nancial market pressures? [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(1):467–474.
[4] Aune Finn Roar,Mohn Klaus,Osmundsen Petter. Financial market pressure,tacit collusion and oil price formation [J]. Energy Economics,2010,32(2):389–398.
[5] Finch John H,Macmillan Fiona E,Simpson Graeme S. On the diffusion of probabilistic investment appraisal and decision-making procedures in the UK’s upstream oil and gas industry[J]. Research Policy,2002,31(6):969–988.
[6] Borgonovo E,Peccati L. Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in the evaluation of investment projects[J] International Journal of Production Economics,2006,104(1):62–73.
[7] Borgonovo E , Peccati L. Sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2004,90(1):17–25.
[8] Van Groenendaal Willem J H,Kleijnen Jack P C. On the assessment of economic risk : factorial design versus Monte Carlo methods[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1997,57(1):91-102.
[9] Kum Khiong Yang,Lee Choo Tay,Chee Chuong Sum. A comparison of stochastic scheduling rules for maximizing project net present value[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1995,85(2):327-339.
[10] Heidenberger Kurt,Schillinger Alexander,Stummer.Christian budgeting for research and development : a dynamic ?nancial simulation approach[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,2003,37(1):15–27.
[11] Caron Franco,Fumagalli Mauro,Rigamonti Alvaro. Engineering and contracting projects:a value at risk based approach to portfolio balancing[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2007,25(6):569–578.
[12] Chapman Chris,Howden Mike. Two phase parametric and probabilistic NPV calculations,with possible deferral of disposal of UK nuclear waste as an example [J]. Omega,1997,25(6):707-714.
[13] Zhou Wenchao,Gong Peichen. Multiple-use tradeoffs in Swedish mountain region forests[J]. Forest Policy and Economics,2005,7(1):39– 52.
[14] Begg S H,Bratvold R,Campbell J C. The value of flexibility in managing uncertainty in oil and gas investments[Z]. Proc. SPE ATCE,San Antonio,2002.
[15] Armstrong M,Galli A,Bailey W et al. Incorporating technical uncertainty in real option valuation of oil projects[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):67– 82.
[16] Accioly Ricardo de Melo e Silva,Chiyoshi Fernando Yassuo. Modeling dependence with copulas:a useful tool for field development decision process[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):83-91.
[17] Al-Harthy Mansoor,Begg Steve,Bratvold Reidar B. Copulas:a new technique to model dependence in petroleum decision making[J].Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2007,57(1):195-208.
[18] Bratvold R B,Begg S H. A new approach to uncertainty quantification for decision making[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,2010.
[19] Boris Asrilhant,Maureen Meadows,Robert Dyson. Techniques to support successful strategic project management in the UK upstream oil and gas sector[J]. European Management Journal,2006,24(3):214–225.
[20] Ekern S. An option pricing approach to evaluating petroleum projects[J]. Energy Economics,1988,10(2):91– 99.
[21] Copeland T,Koller T,Murrin J. Valuation:measuring and managing the value of companies[M]. New York:Wiley,1990.
[22] Kemma A G Z. Case studies on real options[J].Financial Management,1993,22(3):259– 270.
[23] Dixit A,Pindyck R S. Investment Under Uncertainty[M]. New Jersey:New Jersey University Press,1994.
[24] Laine J P. Option valuation of field development projects[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,1997.
[25] Walkup G W J N,Chatwin R E. Case studies of a real option approach to asset valuation in the petroleum industry[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,1999.
[26] Chorn L G,Shokhor S. Real options for risk management in petroleum development investments[J]. Energy Economics,2006,28(4):489–505.
[27] Franz Wirl. Energy conservation,expectations and uncertainty[J]. Energy Economics,2008,30 (4):1957–1972.
[28] Walls Michael R. Combining decision analysis and portfolio management to improve project selection in the exploration and production firm[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):55– 65.
[29] Walls Michael R. Corporate risk-taking and performance:a 20 year look at the petroleum industry[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2005,48(3):127– 140.
[30] Suslick Saul B,Furtado Ricardo. Quantifying the value of technological,environmental and financial gain in decision models for offshore oil exploration[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2001,32(2):115–125.
[31] Saleh J H,Marais K.Reliability:How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction,the net present value of reliability[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91(1):665–673.
[32]刘金兰,韩文秀,李光泉.大型工程建设项目风险分析方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996,(8):62-68.
[33]廖鲁海,谢霞.油气勘探开发投资风险分析的理论方法研究及应用[J].预测,1999,(3):56-58.
[34]赵奇峰,刘宏菊.基于模糊影响图的油气长输管道工程环境经济损益分析研究[J].石油工程建设,2006,32(6):5-10.
[35]罗东坤,汪华.石油勘探投资实物期权评价模型的建立及应用[J].石油学报,2007,28(6):147-150.
[36] Fan Ying,Zhu Lei. A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions[J]. Energy Economics,2010,32(3):627-637.
[37]赖亮光,郑明贵,袁怀雨.基于实物期权的海外矿业投资柔性决策模型[J].煤炭学报,2010,(6):1050-1054.
[38]安实,田季员.基于B-S期权定价法的投资决策[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,(12):2104-2107.
[39]张国兴,郭菊娥,刘东霖.建设时间和投资成本不对称的双寡头期权博弈模型[J].管理科学,2008,(4):75-81.
[40]郭晨,王锡凡,张显.基于效用函数的火电厂投资风险决策[J].电力系统自动化,2004,(4):11-16.
[41]詹丽,杨昌明,赵建华.圈闭预探项目的效用决策模式[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(12):54 - 59.
[42]王众,张哨楠,匡建超.基于动态MAUT的油气勘探风险决策模型研究[J].中国矿业,2010,19(1):110-113.
[43]熊淑娟,朱元琳.行为会计决策研究——基于国有企业决策问题[J].东方企业文化,2010,(2):13-14.
[44]李延喜,张启銮,李宁.基于动态现金流量的企业价值评估模型研究[J].科研管理,2003,24(2):24-27.
[45]刘彩霞.企业集团财务控制行为:动因、测度及相关分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009.
[46]汤谷良.财务控制新论:兼论现代企业财务控制的再造[J].会计研究,2000,(3):7-11.
[47]于增彪.我国集团公司预算管理运行体系的新模式——中原石油勘探局案例研究[J].会计研究,2001,(8):33-42.
[48]张先治.基于价值的企业集团预算控制系统—预算控制变量与预算控制标准确定[J].财经问题研究,2005,(6):78-84.
[49] Ittner Christopher D,Larcker David F. Assessing empirical research in managerial accounting : a value-based management perspective[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics,2001,32(1):349-410.
[50] Hansen Stephen C,Van der Stede Wim A. Multiple facets of budgeting: an exploratory analysis[J]. Management Accounting Research,2004,15(4):415-439.
[51] Nilsson Fredrik. Parenting styles and value creation: a management control approach[J]. Management Accounting Research,2000,11(1):89-112.
[52]汤谷良,林长泉.打造VBM框架下的价值型财务管理模式[J].会计研究,2003,(12):23-27.
[53] Oehmke James F. Anomalies in net present value calculations[J]. Economics Letters,2000,67(3):349–351.
[54] Prokopczuke Marcel,Racheva Svetlozar T,Schindlmayrd Gero et al. Quantifying risk in the electricity business:A RAROC-based approach[J].Energy Economics,2007,29(5): 1033-1049.
[55] Kierulff Herbert. MIRR:A better measure[J]. Business Horizons,2008,51(4):321—329.
[56] Osmundsen Petter,Asche Frank,Misund Brd et al. Valuation of international oil companies:The ROACE era [D]. IDEAS:CESifo working paper,2004.
[57] Nilsson Fredrik , Olve Nils-Goran. Control systems in multibusiness companies:From performance management to strategic management[J]. European Management Journal,2001,19(4):344-358.
[58] Teemu Malmi , Seppo Ik?heimo . 2003 . Value Based Management practices—some evidence from the ?eld[J].Management Accounting Research,14(3):235–254.
[59] Jakobsen Stig-Erik,Onsager Knut.The role and function of head offices:towards increased complexity[D].SNF-project No.4265,working paper,2003.
[60] Ramesh G,Ramanayya T V.Economic contribution of public passenger transport organisations—An application of EVA methodology[J].The Journal of Business Perspective,2007,11(3):25-34.
[61]王莲芬,蔡海鸥,孙宏才.投资决策量化方法[M].北京:海洋出版社,2006:21-30.
[62]夏恩君.项目投资决策分析:方法与技术[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2008:27-29.
[63] Lin Steven A Y. The modified internal rate of return and investment criterion[J]. The Engineering Economist,1976,21(4):237-247.
[64] Akitoshi Inoma. A new project evaluation tool—risked rate of return [Z]. SPE Asia Pacific Conference on Integrated Modelling for Asset Management,Japan,2000.
[65]柳海龙,王慧.金融风险管理[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2009:412-417.
[66] (美)詹姆斯·R.埃文斯,戴维·L.奥尔森.模拟与风险分析[M].洪锡熙译.上海:上海人民出版社,2001.
[67]苟三权.油田开发项目的风险分析方法综述[J].石油钻探技术,2007(2):87-90.
[68]韦艳华,张世英.Copula理论及其在金融分析上的应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008:128-140.
[69] Chien-Ta Ho,Yun-Shan Wu. Benchmarking performance indicators for banks[J].Benchmarking:An International Journal,2006,13(2):147-159.
[70] Goumas M G,Lygerou V A,Papayannakis L E. Computational methods for planning and evaluating geothermal energy projects[J]. Energy Policy,1999,(27):147-154.
[71] Lenos Trigeorgis.实物期权——灵活机动的管理和资源配置战略[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007:21-33.
[72]阿南德·圣瓦尔.公司投资组合管理优化——实现投资建议与组织战略的协同[M].孟宪伟,黄磊译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2010:102-118.
[73]张立凡.我国石油企业集团核心竞争力研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2006.
[74]张小利.创造价值的投资决策[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2006:23-24.
[75] Shrieves Ronald E,Wachowicz Jr,John M. Free Cash Flow (FCF),Economic Value Added (EVA),and Net Present Value (NPV)_A reconciliation of variations of Discounted-Cash-Flow (DCF) valuation[J]. Engineering Economist,2001,46(1):33-53.
[76] Daiva Burksaitiene. Measurement Of Value Creation: Economic Value Added and Net Present Value[J]. Economics & Management,2009,14(1):709-714.
[77] Minton Bernadette A,Schrand Catherine. The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1999,54(1):423-460.
[78]朴哲范.信息披露视角下企业价值评价理论与应用研究[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2008:56-59.
[79] Alf Alviniussen,Hakan Jankensgárd. Enterprise Risk Budgeting:bringing risk management into the financial planning process[J]. Journal of Applied Finance,2009,19 (1):178-192.
[80]张利庠.管理经济学[M].北京:北京交通大学出版社,2004.
[81] Ruud Weijermars. Accelerating the three dimensions of E&P clockspeed– A novel strategy for optimizing utility in the Oil & Gas industry[J]. Applied Energy,2009,86(10):2222-2243.
[82] Richard S. Warr. An empirical study of inflation distortions to EVA[J].Journal of Economics and Business,2005,57(1):119–137.
[83]汤谷良,杜菲.试论企业增长—盈利—风险三维平衡战略管理[J].会计研究,2004,(11):31-37.
[84]李延喜,张悦玫,司明军.创造会计背景下公司价值增长评价模型研究[J].管理评论,2005,(7):38-42.
[85] Abate James A,Grant James L,Stewart Iii.G. Bennett. The EVA style of investing[J].Journal of Portfolio Management,2004,30(4):61-72.
[86]陈钊.信息与激励经济学[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2005:90-101.
[87]王斌.中国国有企业业绩评价制度:回顾与思考[J].会计研究,2008,(11):21-28.
[88]赵治纲.EVA业绩考核理论与实务[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009:180-207.
[89]许学娜,王之君.基于战略导入的EVA管理决策模式初探[J].中国科技论坛,2011,(1):130-132 .
[90] Frank H M Verbeeten. Do organizations adopt sophisticated capital budgeting practices to deal with uncertainty in the investment decision : A research note[J].Management Accounting Research,2006,17(1):106-120.
[91] Smalley P C,Begg S H,Naylor M et al. Handling risk and uncertainty in petroleum exploration and asset management:an overview[J]. AAPG Bulletin,2008,92(10):1251-1261.
[92] Suslick S B,Schiozer D J. Risk analysis applied to petroleum exploration and production: an overview[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):1– 9.
[93] Berger Thomas,Bristow Gillian. Competitiveness [J]. International Advances in Economic Research,2009,15(4):378-392.
[94] Begg S H,Bratvold R,Campbell J C. Improving investment decisions using a stochastic integrated asset model[Z]. Proc. SPE ATCE,New Orleans,2001.
[95] Marco Antonio,Guimar?es Dias. Valuation of exploration and production assets: an overview of real options models[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):93– 114.
[96] Brealey R A,Myers S C. Principles of corporate finance[M]. New York:McGraw-Hill,1991.
[97] Brennan M J,Schwartz E S. Evaluating natural resource investments[J]. Journal of Business,1985,58(1):135–157.
[98] McDonald R,Siegel D. Investment and the valuation of firms when there is an option of shut down[J]. International Economic Review,1985,28(2):331– 349.
[99] McDonald R,Siegel D. The value of waiting to invest[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4):707–727.
[100] Abel A B,Eberly J C. The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1999,44(1):339–377.
[101] Caballero R J. Aggregate investment[D]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Working papers,1999:97-20.
[102] Smit Han T J,Trigeorgis Lenos. Strategic Investment:real options and games[M]. New Jersey:Princeton University Press,2004.
[103] Klaus Mohn,B?rd Misund. Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry[J]. Energy Economics,2009,31(2):240–248.
[104] Irene Henriques,Perry Sadorsky. The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment[J]. Energy Economics,2011,33(1):79-87.
[105] Ghosh Suvankar,Troutt Marvin D,Thornton John H et al.An empirical method for assessing the research relevance gap[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,201(3):942-948.
[106] McCormack J L,Vybeeswaran J. How to use EVA in the oil and gas industry[J] . Journal of Applied Corporation Finance,1998,11(3):109-131.
[107] Copeland T,Antikarov V. Real options:a practitioner’s guide[M]. New York:Texere LLC,2001.
[108] Costa Lima G A,Suslick S B. Estimating the volatility of mineral projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties[J].Resources Policy,2006,31(2):86–94.
[109] Ionu? Florescua,Cristian Gabriel P?s?ric?. A study about the existence of the leverage effect in stochastic volatility models[J]. Physica A,2009,388(1):419–432.
[110] (美)乔纳森·文.风险建模:应用蒙特卡罗,实物期权分析,预测,优化技术[M].王燕鸣译.北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[111] Lima G A C,Suslick S B,Bordieri C A. A quantitative method for estimation of volatility of oil production projects[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Texas,2005.
[112] Gallant L,Kieffel H,Chatwin R. Using Learning Models to Capture Dynamic Complexity in Petroleum Exploration[Z]. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas Texas,1999.
[113] Lin C-Y Cynthia. The investment timing game in petroleum production:An econometric model[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2005,355(1):62–68.
[114] Herath Hemantha S B,Park Chan S.Real option valuation and its relation to Bayesian decision-making methods[J].Engineering Economist,2001,46(1):1-32.
[115] Batvold R,Begg S H. I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong[J].AAPG Bulletin,2008,92(10):1373-1392.
[116] Bowman E H,Hurry D. Strategy through the Option Lens:an integrated view of resource investmens and the incremental-choice process[J]. Academy of Management Review,1993,18(4):772.
[117]刘明霞.不确定环境下的战略分析和运作:实物期权战略[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2009:101-107.
[118] Lenos Trigeorgis.实物期权——灵活机动的管理和战略资源配置战略[M].林谦译.北京:清华大学出版社,2007:30-40.
[119] Irakli Menabde. Valuation of Integrated Oil & Gas Companies : A comparative analysis of methodologies and empirical practices [D]. Kandidatafhandlinger,Graduate theses,2009.
[120] Jerry Jackson. Promoting energy ef?ciency investments with risk management decision tools[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(1):3865–3873.
[121]李瑛.决策统计分析[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2005:144-145.
[122]李腊生.不确定性决策与金融资产投资[M].广州:广东人民出版社,2002:53-60.
[123] Campbell J C,Begg S H,Bratvold R B. Portfolio optimization:living up to expectations?[Z].SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,Dallas,2003.
[124]陈立文.项目投资风险分析理论与方法[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005:206-220.
[125]尹志军,陈立文,李素红.项目全生命周期中收益与风险的协调机制研究[J].建筑经济,2007(4):60-62.
[126] Tyler P A,Mcvean J R.项目风险评价方法对P.A. Tyler等投资组合优化模型的作用[A].刘圣志,油气勘探开发经济评价译文集[A].北京:石油工业出版社,2002:21-29.
[127]刘志东.资产组合风险度量与选择优化——理论分析与实证研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2008.
[128]王震,王恺.基于Markowitz资产组合理论的油气勘探开发投资决策[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版).2008,32(1):152-155.
[129] Ross J G. Risk and uncertainty in portfolio characterisation[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):41– 53.
[130] Walls Michael R,Dyer James S. Risk propensity and firm performance: a study of the petroleum exploration industry[J]. Management Science,1996,42(7):1004-1021.
[131] Regis da Rocha Motta,Guilherme Marques Caloba,Ciro Jorge Appi et al. Combining preference theory and CAPM efficient frontier: towards an optimum portfolio of upstream projects[Z]. SEG,San Antonio,2001.
[132] Costa Lima Gabriel A,Suslick Saul B. Investment decision in oil and gas projects using real option and risk tolerance models[J]. Int. J. Oil,Gas and Coal Technology,2008,1(1):3-23.
[133] Walls M R. Corporate risk tolerance and capital allocation: a practical approach to implementing an exploration risk policy[J]. Journal of Petroleum Technology,1995,47(4):307– 311.
[134] Newendorp P D , Schuyler J R. Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration[M]. 2nd ed. Colorado:Planning Press,2000.
[135] Rose P R. Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures [J]. AAPG Explorer,2001,12(1):178-179.
[136] Popi Konidari,Dimitrios Mavrakis. A multi-criteria evaluation method for climate change mitigation policy instruments[J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(1):6235–6257.
[137]詹丽,杨昌明,赵建华.圈闭预探项目的效用决策模式[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(12):54 - 59.
[138]王众,张哨楠,匡建超.基于动态MAUT的油气勘探风险决策模型研究[J].中国矿业,2010,19(1):110-113.
[139] Bickel J Eric,Smith James E,Jennifer L Meyer. Modeling dependence among geologic risks in sequential exploration decisions[J]. Reservoir evaluation and engineering,2008,4:352-361.
[140] Welsh M.B.,Begg S.H. Modeling the Economic Impact of Individual and Corporate Risk Attitude[Z]. Proc. SPE ATCE,Denver,2008.
[141]董保民.信息经济学讲义[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005:29-38.
[142]李小健.国有公司财务管理机制研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2007.
[143]杨雄胜.高级财务管理[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2009.
[144]冯建.企业财务制度论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[145] Alviniussen Alf,Jankensg?rd H?kan.Enterprise risk budgeting:bringing risk management into the financial planning process[J].Journal of Applied Finance,2009,19(1):178-192.
[146] Bushman Robert M,Smith Abbie J. Financial accounting information and corporate governance[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics,2001,32(1):237–333.
[147]蒋元涛.基于现金流量的投资企业财务风险预警分析[J].财贸研究,2005,(4):84-87.
[148] Huggins Robert,Izushi Hiro. Regional Benchmarking in a global context:knowledge,competitiveness,and economic development[J].Economic Development Quarterly,2009,23(4):275-293.
[149]周嘉南,黄登仕.公司资本预算中的信息不对称与激励方案的设计[J].软科学,2003,(4):13-17.
[150] Fisher J G,Maines L A,Peffer S A et al. Using budgets for performance evaluation:effects of resource allocation and horizontal information asymmetry on budget proposals,budget slack,and performance[J].Accounting Review,2002,77(4):847-865.
[151] Otley David.Performance management:a framework for management control systems research[J].Management Accounting Research,1999,10(4):363–382.
[152] Bhimani Alnoor.Risk management,corporate governance and management accounting:Emerging interdependencies[J].Management Accounting Research,2009,20(1):2-5.
[153]许学娜,刘金兰.价值导向下的企业预算风险管理[J].统计与决策,2011,(6):167-169.
[154] Hansen Stephen C,Otley David T,Van der Stede Wim A.Practice developments in budgeting:an overview and research perspective[J].Journal of Management Accounting Research,2003,15(1):95-116.
[155] Collier Paul M , Berry Anthony J . Risk in the process of budgeting[J].Management Accounting Research,2002,13(3):273-297.
[156] Frowa Natalie,Marginson David,Ogden Stuart.“Continuous”budgeting:Reconciling budget ?exibility with budgetary control[J].Accounting Organizations and Society,2009,26(11):1-18.
[157]刘建国.企业战略风险识别、评估与动态预警研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2008.
[158]华小宁,梁文昭,陈昊.整合进行时——企业全面风险管理路线图[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2007:315-353.
[159] Slywotzky Adrian J , Drzik John . Countering the Biggest Risk of All[J].Harward Business Review,2005,83(4):79-88.
[160]叶陈刚,郑君彦.企业风险评估与控制[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2009:120-133.
[161]刘笑霞,李明辉.现代企业风险管理的系统化过程[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2009,(4):76-81.
[162]张瑞君.基于价值链的动态预算管理研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006,(1):66-67.
[163]胡杰武,万里霜.企业风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009:215-218.
[164] Herzog Natasa Vujica,Tonchia Stefano,Polajnar Andrej. Linkages between manufacturing strategy,benchmarking,performance measurement and business process reengineering[J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering,2009,57(3):963–975.
[165]王勇,许庆瑞.以战略为中心的业绩评价理论框架研究[J].科研管理,2001(9):128-139.
[166]金碚.竞争力经济学[M].广州:广东经济出版社,2003:38.
[167]张安军.经济全球化背景下中国石油企业竞争实力分析[J].国土资源情报,2009,(6):11-15.
[168]宋杰鲲,张在旭,孙宁.油田企业节能评价指标体系设计与应用[J].价值工程,2007,(3):6-9.
[169]许学娜,刘金兰,王之君.基于熵权TOPSIS法的企业对标评价模型及实证研究[J].情报杂志,2011,(1):78-82.
[170]席酉民.企业集团竞争力与业绩综合评价[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2004:59-61.
[171]关于提高资源型企业综合竞争力对策研究[DB] ,百度文库,http://wenku.baidu.com/view/cd3cb56648d7c1c708a1455d.html,2010-6-5.
[172]韩大匡.中国油气田开发现状、面临的挑战和技术发展方向[J].中国工程科学,2010,12(5):54-57.
[173]资源瓶颈制约进一步加大[DB].中国石油石化,http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20100820/12088518226.shtml,2010-08-20.
[174]周吉平.中国石油2009可持续发展报告[DB]. http://www.petrochina.com.cn/Resource/pdf/xwygg/2009kcxfzbg_jt.pdf,2009,2010:6-7.
[175]迟振国.解读战略任务之一:原油持续稳产[DB].新华网黑龙江频道,http://www.hlj.xinhuanet.com/zt/2009-06/09/content_16761603.html,2009.
[176]曹如中.企业生态化管理:一种全新的管理范式[J].管理科学文摘,2006,(1):27-28.