综合类生态工业园区指标体系及稳定机制研究
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摘要
随着工业化进程的快速推进,可持续发展日益受到资源和环境的严重制约。生态工业园区作为人们探索和实践循环经济与可持续发展的产物,已成为许多国家工业园区生态化改造的主要内容,也是我国落实科学发展观、“转方式、调结构”和实践生态文明的重要途径和载体。我国从1999年启动生态工业示范园区建设试点工作,2001年8月原国家环境保护总局将广西贵港集团确立为第一个国家生态工业(制糖)建设试点示范园区,标志着生态工业园区的建设全面开始。截止到2010年12月,国家共批准了50个国家生态工业示范园建设试点单位,其中综合类生态工业园区有39个,占总数的78%。我国的生态工业园区建设在优化产业结构、提高资源能源利用效率、减少环境污染、改善环境质量等方面成效显著,但也存在一些制约园区稳定运行和持续改善的关键问题,如进入园区的企业关联性不强、资源能源产出率不高、生态产业链网稳定性不强等。因此,本文在系统查阅了国内外生态工业园区的发展状况的基础上,重点评述了国内外生态工业园区规划设计方法、指标体系、稳定性及稳定机制等相关内容,调查识别了影响我国生态工业园区稳定运行和持续发展的关键瓶颈问题,并以烟台经济技术开发区生态工业园和日照经济开发区生态工业园以及卡伦堡生态工业园为实例,从项目准入控制、运行优化调控以及建设成效综合评价等方面,研究建立了综合类生态工业园区系列指标体系,探讨了园区系统结构变化对稳定性的影响及稳定机制,对提升生态工业园区的运行效率和可持续发展能力有重要的理论和应用价值。其研究内容和结论如下：
(1)论文针对综合类生态工业园区的特点,通过研究指标体系的原则、框架结构设计、指标的筛选、权重的确定等,建立了综合类生态工业园区指标体系的构建方法；通过指标间的重叠性分析及指标的筛选方法,进一步去除了不符合要求的指标,以减小指标的冗余；在比较研究模糊综合评价、可拓综合评价、灰色关联度评价等方法的基础上,建立了综合类生态工业园区的可拓综合评价方法,可以准确评定生态工业园区发展等级。
(2)论文针对园区发展过程中项目准入方面缺乏控制指标等问题,以建立入园项目准入指数、保障生态工业园的运行效率和稳定性为总目标,综合考虑园区产业关联性、园区可承载性和园区环境绩效提升以及企业的生态设计、经济效益、资源利用与排污强度等因素,研究建立了含3个层次、27个指标的生态工业园区建设项目准入指标体系,与已有研究相比,本指标体系强调了园区的承载力和企业的生态设计,从而使项目准入控制更加科学、合理；采用可拓综合评价方法,结合实例建立了不同条件下的项目准入控制方法；同时,本文也提出了临界准入指数的概念和方法,当备选项目的准入指数大于临界准入指数时,可以允许进入园区,否则就不准入园。
(3)综合考虑经济、资源、环境与社会四个子系统的相互作用及其影响因素,构建了包含4个层次、30个指标在内的综合类生态工业园区优化调控指标体系,并建立了包含经济、资源、环境与社会四个子系统的系统动力学模型和综合协调发展度评价方法,通过系统仿真,确定最佳的调控方案,通过对比分析园区现状和中、远期的系统协调发展度,分析调控的效果。该指标体系和评价方法在烟台经济技术开发区生态工业园的应用结果表明,园区采用调控方案后,模拟中期的协调发展水平将由现状的轻度失调提高到一般协调水平,远期可以实现中等协调水平。这表明优化调控方案对提升系统协调发展度具有重要的指导作用。
(4)综合考虑经济运行效率、资源利用效率、污染减排效率、生态工业特征和园区管理效率5个方面的影响因素,以提升园区系统运行效率、提高资源产出率为总目标,构建了综合类生态工业园区综合评价指标体系；基于生态工业园的阶段性特征,利用可拓综合评价方法,建立了包含三级标准的评价方法体系,实现了不同时间尺度和空间尺度上的综合类生态工业园区的比对评价；烟台和日照生态工业园区的评价结果表明：2007年和2009年烟台生态工业园区的系统效率等级特征值为3.0073和2.1218,表明从2007年到2009年园区系统效率有了显著改善；而2008年日照生态工业园区的系统效率等级特征值为2.4929,按照评定准则,日照生态工业园区与烟台生态工业园区均属于二级生态工业园,但根据等级特征值很容易的判别两者系统效率的差异性,说明本文建立的可拓综合评价模型在评判对象所处等级方面具有更好的分辨率
(5)从物质流、能量流、价值流的运行状态,分析了综合类生态工业园区稳定性的内涵和稳定的表现形式与层次,并提出了综合类生态工业园区系统稳定性的定义：在存在扰动的条件下,综合类生态工业园区系统保持物质流、能量流、价值流畅通且特征量涨落较小或出现涨落后在较短时间内将特征量稳定在某一水平的能力。进而基于复杂系统理论和系统内部稳定性依赖于系统结构的观点,采用结构熵和效质有序度研究了综合类生态工业园区结构变化与系统稳定性的关系。以卡伦堡生态工业园区为例,通过研究初期、中期和后期三个时段的网络结构熵和效质有序度,探讨了综合类生态工业园区系统结构变化对其稳定性的影响。研究结果表明：结构熵和效质有序度呈现波动的特征,结构熵总的趋势表现出熵增效应,效质有序度则正相反,呈现出减小的趋势,如结构熵从初期1的2.1996增加到后期的3.5720,相应地效质有序度由0.9541降低到0.8404。这反映了系统稳定性变化的规律是：新节点加入后系统稳定性先呈现降低趋势,但随着时间增加,系统稳定性有所回升,但不会恢复到最初的水平,而是发展为一个新的稳态,即产业共生网络的稳定是一种动态的稳定,并且系统复杂性增加不一定导致系统稳定性降低。最后,从微观(企业)、中观(产业链)和宏观(产业共生网络),研究了影响系统稳定性的因素和机制。产业共生网络的稳定依赖于产业链的稳定,因此园区系统稳定运行的关键是企业链接具有较好的稳定性。
With the quickly development of Chinese industrialization, sustainable development is more and more limited by the resources and environment. Eco-Industrial Park as a product resulting from the exploratory and practice of circular economy and sustainable development by people, has been not only a main task of Ecological transformation of the industrial parks in many nations, but also a important way and carrier of implementing science-based development and ecological civilization in China. China started construction of ecological industrial demonstration park pilots in 1999, and Guigang Group as the first pilot was approved by the former State Environmental Protection Administration in August 2001. This marks a fully beginning at the construction of eco-industrial parks(EIPs). As of December 2010,46 national EIPs have been approved by the State, sector-integrate eco-industrial parks (SIEIPs)totalled 39, accounting for 78% of the total. The EIPs have been achieving remarkable results in the optimization of industrial structure, improving energy efficiency, reduce environmental pollution and improve environmental quality, but there are some constraints on stable operation of the parks, take weak business association between enterprises, low resources and energy output rate and unstable ecological industry chains and etc. In this paper, based on the the systemic consultion on domestic and abroad eco-industrial park development, planning design method, indicator systems, stability and stabilization mechanisms of the EIPs reviewed mainly, and the key bottlenecks influencing on stable operation and sustainable development identified. Taking Yantai EIP and RizhaoEIP and the Kalundborg EIP as examples, from the points of control of the project access, regulation of the running and comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness, series index system of SIEIPs have been studied and established, and the influence of the structure change on running stability and mechanisms have been discussed and analyzed. These study fruits are valuable in theory and practic to promoting operational efficiency and sustainable development.
(1) Directed at the SIEIP characteristics, a comprehensive approach inculding the principles, framework design, index selection, weight allocation for establishing indicator system has been put forword. Indicator screening was to remove ill-suited ones and reduce the redundancy. On the basis of the comparative study among fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, extension evaluation and evaluation model based on grey relevancy, a evaluation method by extenics for the SIEIP has been built which has the advantage of precise evaluation on development level of the park
(2) Directed at the lack of indicators for access control project duiring the development of the SIEIP, targeted at establishing access index to guarantee operating efficiency and stability, a indicator system for access control of sector-integrate eco-industrial parks is constructed taking the factors into consideration inculding industry relevance, carrying capacity, environmental performance improvement of park, ecological design, economic benefit, resource utilization and pollution intensity of enterprise. The indicator system contains three levels and twenty- seven indexes. Compared with previous studies, this indicator system emphasizes carrying capacity of park and ecological design of enterprise to reasonablly access control at the enterprises. A method for enterprise access control into SIEIPs is put forword applying extension assess combined with a case. In this study, critical access index is proposed. An enterprise can be admitted into a SIEIP when its access index is greater than critical access index.
(3) Considered the factors of economy, resources, environment and society and the interactions of the four subsystems, a indicator system for system optimization regulation of SIEIPs is proposed which contains four levels and thirty indexes. Furthermore a system dynamics model and a model of coordination and development degree of SIEIPs are also studied to to determine optimal regulation scheme and analyze regulation effect. The model was used in Yantai EIP and the results show that coordinated development level at medium period can be improved at level of general coordination from the level of mild disorder in current situation, and medium coordination level can be achieved at future. This indicats that optimization regulation scheme has an important directive function in guiding in enhancing the coordinated development levelof the system.
(4) Considered the five factors of economic efficiency, resources utilization efficiency, pollution reduction, eco-industrial characteristics and managerial effectiveness, targeted at increasing system efficiency and resource productivity, an indicator system for overall evaluation of sector-integrate eco-industrial parks is constructed. Based on characteristics of eco-industrial parks, a three-step evaluation standard system is proposed, which realizes compare evaluation at time scale and space scale. The results in Yantai EIP in 2007 and 2009 show that the eigenvalues of system efficiency are 3.0073 and 2.1218, which indicats the system efficiency has been improved significantly from 2007 to 2009. The result in Rizhao EIP in 2008 show that the eigenvalues of system efficiency was 2.4929. The two parks were evaluated second-rate EIP, but the difference between them could be distinguished by the eigenvalues of system efficiency. This illustrates that the constructed model has good distinguishability at differentiating park development level.
(5) From the perspective of the material flow, energy flow, value flow, meaning and level of stability of SIEIPs are analyzed and definition of stability of SIEIPs is proposed. The stability of SIEIP is a capability of keeping material flow, energy flow and value flow smooth and their characteristic quantitites are in small fluctuation or maintain at a certain level in a short time in the presence of disturbance conditions. Then based on complex system theory and the internal stability of the system in dependence on the system structure, the relationship between system structure and stability is studied by calculating structure-entropy (SE) and order degree of coupling time-effect with quality of an organization structure (ODTEQ). As a case of Kalundborg EIP, the results show that the two parameter of SE and ODTEQ present characteristics of wave, namely SE manifests entropy effect and ODTEQ manifests decrescence in the general trend, such as SE increase from the first early stage 2.1996 to later period 3.5720, with a corresponding degree of order by the effective mass 0.9541 down to 0.8404. This reflects that system stability first decreases and then steps up to a new stationarity, futhermore system stability does not always reduce with increasing complexity. Finally, at microscopic, meso-level macroscopy view, the factors affecting the system stability and mechanisms are analyzed.The results show that the stability of industrial symbiosis depends on the stability of the industry chain, so the key of stable system operation is the fine stability of enterprises links.
(1)论文针对综合类生态工业园区的特点,通过研究指标体系的原则、框架结构设计、指标的筛选、权重的确定等,建立了综合类生态工业园区指标体系的构建方法；通过指标间的重叠性分析及指标的筛选方法,进一步去除了不符合要求的指标,以减小指标的冗余；在比较研究模糊综合评价、可拓综合评价、灰色关联度评价等方法的基础上,建立了综合类生态工业园区的可拓综合评价方法,可以准确评定生态工业园区发展等级。
(2)论文针对园区发展过程中项目准入方面缺乏控制指标等问题,以建立入园项目准入指数、保障生态工业园的运行效率和稳定性为总目标,综合考虑园区产业关联性、园区可承载性和园区环境绩效提升以及企业的生态设计、经济效益、资源利用与排污强度等因素,研究建立了含3个层次、27个指标的生态工业园区建设项目准入指标体系,与已有研究相比,本指标体系强调了园区的承载力和企业的生态设计,从而使项目准入控制更加科学、合理；采用可拓综合评价方法,结合实例建立了不同条件下的项目准入控制方法；同时,本文也提出了临界准入指数的概念和方法,当备选项目的准入指数大于临界准入指数时,可以允许进入园区,否则就不准入园。
(3)综合考虑经济、资源、环境与社会四个子系统的相互作用及其影响因素,构建了包含4个层次、30个指标在内的综合类生态工业园区优化调控指标体系,并建立了包含经济、资源、环境与社会四个子系统的系统动力学模型和综合协调发展度评价方法,通过系统仿真,确定最佳的调控方案,通过对比分析园区现状和中、远期的系统协调发展度,分析调控的效果。该指标体系和评价方法在烟台经济技术开发区生态工业园的应用结果表明,园区采用调控方案后,模拟中期的协调发展水平将由现状的轻度失调提高到一般协调水平,远期可以实现中等协调水平。这表明优化调控方案对提升系统协调发展度具有重要的指导作用。
(4)综合考虑经济运行效率、资源利用效率、污染减排效率、生态工业特征和园区管理效率5个方面的影响因素,以提升园区系统运行效率、提高资源产出率为总目标,构建了综合类生态工业园区综合评价指标体系；基于生态工业园的阶段性特征,利用可拓综合评价方法,建立了包含三级标准的评价方法体系,实现了不同时间尺度和空间尺度上的综合类生态工业园区的比对评价；烟台和日照生态工业园区的评价结果表明：2007年和2009年烟台生态工业园区的系统效率等级特征值为3.0073和2.1218,表明从2007年到2009年园区系统效率有了显著改善；而2008年日照生态工业园区的系统效率等级特征值为2.4929,按照评定准则,日照生态工业园区与烟台生态工业园区均属于二级生态工业园,但根据等级特征值很容易的判别两者系统效率的差异性,说明本文建立的可拓综合评价模型在评判对象所处等级方面具有更好的分辨率
(5)从物质流、能量流、价值流的运行状态,分析了综合类生态工业园区稳定性的内涵和稳定的表现形式与层次,并提出了综合类生态工业园区系统稳定性的定义：在存在扰动的条件下,综合类生态工业园区系统保持物质流、能量流、价值流畅通且特征量涨落较小或出现涨落后在较短时间内将特征量稳定在某一水平的能力。进而基于复杂系统理论和系统内部稳定性依赖于系统结构的观点,采用结构熵和效质有序度研究了综合类生态工业园区结构变化与系统稳定性的关系。以卡伦堡生态工业园区为例,通过研究初期、中期和后期三个时段的网络结构熵和效质有序度,探讨了综合类生态工业园区系统结构变化对其稳定性的影响。研究结果表明：结构熵和效质有序度呈现波动的特征,结构熵总的趋势表现出熵增效应,效质有序度则正相反,呈现出减小的趋势,如结构熵从初期1的2.1996增加到后期的3.5720,相应地效质有序度由0.9541降低到0.8404。这反映了系统稳定性变化的规律是：新节点加入后系统稳定性先呈现降低趋势,但随着时间增加,系统稳定性有所回升,但不会恢复到最初的水平,而是发展为一个新的稳态,即产业共生网络的稳定是一种动态的稳定,并且系统复杂性增加不一定导致系统稳定性降低。最后,从微观(企业)、中观(产业链)和宏观(产业共生网络),研究了影响系统稳定性的因素和机制。产业共生网络的稳定依赖于产业链的稳定,因此园区系统稳定运行的关键是企业链接具有较好的稳定性。
With the quickly development of Chinese industrialization, sustainable development is more and more limited by the resources and environment. Eco-Industrial Park as a product resulting from the exploratory and practice of circular economy and sustainable development by people, has been not only a main task of Ecological transformation of the industrial parks in many nations, but also a important way and carrier of implementing science-based development and ecological civilization in China. China started construction of ecological industrial demonstration park pilots in 1999, and Guigang Group as the first pilot was approved by the former State Environmental Protection Administration in August 2001. This marks a fully beginning at the construction of eco-industrial parks(EIPs). As of December 2010,46 national EIPs have been approved by the State, sector-integrate eco-industrial parks (SIEIPs)totalled 39, accounting for 78% of the total. The EIPs have been achieving remarkable results in the optimization of industrial structure, improving energy efficiency, reduce environmental pollution and improve environmental quality, but there are some constraints on stable operation of the parks, take weak business association between enterprises, low resources and energy output rate and unstable ecological industry chains and etc. In this paper, based on the the systemic consultion on domestic and abroad eco-industrial park development, planning design method, indicator systems, stability and stabilization mechanisms of the EIPs reviewed mainly, and the key bottlenecks influencing on stable operation and sustainable development identified. Taking Yantai EIP and RizhaoEIP and the Kalundborg EIP as examples, from the points of control of the project access, regulation of the running and comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness, series index system of SIEIPs have been studied and established, and the influence of the structure change on running stability and mechanisms have been discussed and analyzed. These study fruits are valuable in theory and practic to promoting operational efficiency and sustainable development.
(1) Directed at the SIEIP characteristics, a comprehensive approach inculding the principles, framework design, index selection, weight allocation for establishing indicator system has been put forword. Indicator screening was to remove ill-suited ones and reduce the redundancy. On the basis of the comparative study among fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, extension evaluation and evaluation model based on grey relevancy, a evaluation method by extenics for the SIEIP has been built which has the advantage of precise evaluation on development level of the park
(2) Directed at the lack of indicators for access control project duiring the development of the SIEIP, targeted at establishing access index to guarantee operating efficiency and stability, a indicator system for access control of sector-integrate eco-industrial parks is constructed taking the factors into consideration inculding industry relevance, carrying capacity, environmental performance improvement of park, ecological design, economic benefit, resource utilization and pollution intensity of enterprise. The indicator system contains three levels and twenty- seven indexes. Compared with previous studies, this indicator system emphasizes carrying capacity of park and ecological design of enterprise to reasonablly access control at the enterprises. A method for enterprise access control into SIEIPs is put forword applying extension assess combined with a case. In this study, critical access index is proposed. An enterprise can be admitted into a SIEIP when its access index is greater than critical access index.
(3) Considered the factors of economy, resources, environment and society and the interactions of the four subsystems, a indicator system for system optimization regulation of SIEIPs is proposed which contains four levels and thirty indexes. Furthermore a system dynamics model and a model of coordination and development degree of SIEIPs are also studied to to determine optimal regulation scheme and analyze regulation effect. The model was used in Yantai EIP and the results show that coordinated development level at medium period can be improved at level of general coordination from the level of mild disorder in current situation, and medium coordination level can be achieved at future. This indicats that optimization regulation scheme has an important directive function in guiding in enhancing the coordinated development levelof the system.
(4) Considered the five factors of economic efficiency, resources utilization efficiency, pollution reduction, eco-industrial characteristics and managerial effectiveness, targeted at increasing system efficiency and resource productivity, an indicator system for overall evaluation of sector-integrate eco-industrial parks is constructed. Based on characteristics of eco-industrial parks, a three-step evaluation standard system is proposed, which realizes compare evaluation at time scale and space scale. The results in Yantai EIP in 2007 and 2009 show that the eigenvalues of system efficiency are 3.0073 and 2.1218, which indicats the system efficiency has been improved significantly from 2007 to 2009. The result in Rizhao EIP in 2008 show that the eigenvalues of system efficiency was 2.4929. The two parks were evaluated second-rate EIP, but the difference between them could be distinguished by the eigenvalues of system efficiency. This illustrates that the constructed model has good distinguishability at differentiating park development level.
(5) From the perspective of the material flow, energy flow, value flow, meaning and level of stability of SIEIPs are analyzed and definition of stability of SIEIPs is proposed. The stability of SIEIP is a capability of keeping material flow, energy flow and value flow smooth and their characteristic quantitites are in small fluctuation or maintain at a certain level in a short time in the presence of disturbance conditions. Then based on complex system theory and the internal stability of the system in dependence on the system structure, the relationship between system structure and stability is studied by calculating structure-entropy (SE) and order degree of coupling time-effect with quality of an organization structure (ODTEQ). As a case of Kalundborg EIP, the results show that the two parameter of SE and ODTEQ present characteristics of wave, namely SE manifests entropy effect and ODTEQ manifests decrescence in the general trend, such as SE increase from the first early stage 2.1996 to later period 3.5720, with a corresponding degree of order by the effective mass 0.9541 down to 0.8404. This reflects that system stability first decreases and then steps up to a new stationarity, futhermore system stability does not always reduce with increasing complexity. Finally, at microscopic, meso-level macroscopy view, the factors affecting the system stability and mechanisms are analyzed.The results show that the stability of industrial symbiosis depends on the stability of the industry chain, so the key of stable system operation is the fine stability of enterprises links.
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