驾驶员可靠性分析及其在管理信息系统中的设计
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摘要
驾驶员做为道路交通系统的主要组成要素,是物流运输过程的核心,其可靠性不仅决定着物流运输的安全,而且决定着物流运输服务质量的优劣,会对物流运输产生举足轻重的影响。但是,以往驾驶员可靠性的分析和管理仅仅是依据经验作粗略的定性评价。随着信息技术的发展,利用以数据库为核心的管理信息系统进行驾驶员可靠性定量考核,可以为企业用人制度,考核制度,事故的分析、预防等提供充足的数据支持和决策支持,进而为物流运输企业的高运营效率提供技术保证。
本论文正是以驾驶员可靠性分析及其在管理信息系统中的设计为研究目标,在着重进行驾驶员可靠性定性与定量分析之后,具体研究了驾驶员可靠性评价在管理信息系统中的设计方法,主要进行的研究有以下方面:
1.对驾驶员可靠性分析方法进行深入了解和评析,选择行动型人为失误模型与分类和HRA方法中比较成熟实用的理论应用于课题下一步的研究:
2.通过对物流运输系统的详细考察,明确了物流运输对驾驶员的要求:
3.根据驾驶员可能发生的人误事故,对驾驶员人为失误的致因进行分析,识别出物流运输过程中驾驶员的人为失误,得出驾驶员失误模式,实现对驾驶员可靠性的定性分析;
4.结合驾驶员可靠性定性分析的研究成果,对驾驶员可靠性进行定量分析,建立量化评价模型;
5.确定了基于驾驶员可靠性评价的管理信息系统的开发内容,尤其是明确了驾驶员可靠性评价功能的设计,为在管理信息系统中实现驾驶员可靠性分析提供了设计方案。
As the key composed element of road transport system, the drivers are the core of the logictics transport process. Their reliability decides both the safety and the service level of logistics transport, and makes very important impact on the transport. But the driver reliability analysis had ever been from the rough qualitative assessment based on the experience of managers. With the development of information technology, using the management information system whose core is the database to do the quantitative assesment of driver reliability can provide the adequate data support and decision support for the enterprise employment system, the examination system, accident analysis and prevention. Then, the high operational efficiency of logistics enterprises can be assured by this technical means.
The driver reliability analysis and its application of the management information system are the target of this paper. To achieve this objective, the paper highlights the qualitative and quantitative analysis of logistics driver reliability, and researches the design method of the management information system that including the driver reliability assessment function. The following researches are done in this paper:
1. The paper chooses more practical issues for the next phase of research through understanding and comparing the driver reliability analysis methods;
2. Through a series of analysis of logistics system, the characteristics of logistics driver are pointed out in the paper;
3. Based on the human error accicents what would bring on by the drivers, the qualitative analysis of driver reliability by analysing the factors that would result in the human error of driver is achieved in the paper, identifying the human error of drivers in the process of transport logistics and finding the driver error mode;
4. Taking full advantage of the study results of qualitative analysis of the driver reliability, the driver reliability in the process of transport logistics is analysed quantitatively by establishing the quantitative evaluation model;
5. The design ideas about the management information system are pointed out in this paper, based on the driver reliability evaluation. In particular, the design for the function of driver reliability evaluation is expounded. These works determine the design plan of the driver reliability analysis applying of the management information system.
本论文正是以驾驶员可靠性分析及其在管理信息系统中的设计为研究目标,在着重进行驾驶员可靠性定性与定量分析之后,具体研究了驾驶员可靠性评价在管理信息系统中的设计方法,主要进行的研究有以下方面:
1.对驾驶员可靠性分析方法进行深入了解和评析,选择行动型人为失误模型与分类和HRA方法中比较成熟实用的理论应用于课题下一步的研究:
2.通过对物流运输系统的详细考察,明确了物流运输对驾驶员的要求:
3.根据驾驶员可能发生的人误事故,对驾驶员人为失误的致因进行分析,识别出物流运输过程中驾驶员的人为失误,得出驾驶员失误模式,实现对驾驶员可靠性的定性分析;
4.结合驾驶员可靠性定性分析的研究成果,对驾驶员可靠性进行定量分析,建立量化评价模型;
5.确定了基于驾驶员可靠性评价的管理信息系统的开发内容,尤其是明确了驾驶员可靠性评价功能的设计,为在管理信息系统中实现驾驶员可靠性分析提供了设计方案。
As the key composed element of road transport system, the drivers are the core of the logictics transport process. Their reliability decides both the safety and the service level of logistics transport, and makes very important impact on the transport. But the driver reliability analysis had ever been from the rough qualitative assessment based on the experience of managers. With the development of information technology, using the management information system whose core is the database to do the quantitative assesment of driver reliability can provide the adequate data support and decision support for the enterprise employment system, the examination system, accident analysis and prevention. Then, the high operational efficiency of logistics enterprises can be assured by this technical means.
The driver reliability analysis and its application of the management information system are the target of this paper. To achieve this objective, the paper highlights the qualitative and quantitative analysis of logistics driver reliability, and researches the design method of the management information system that including the driver reliability assessment function. The following researches are done in this paper:
1. The paper chooses more practical issues for the next phase of research through understanding and comparing the driver reliability analysis methods;
2. Through a series of analysis of logistics system, the characteristics of logistics driver are pointed out in the paper;
3. Based on the human error accicents what would bring on by the drivers, the qualitative analysis of driver reliability by analysing the factors that would result in the human error of driver is achieved in the paper, identifying the human error of drivers in the process of transport logistics and finding the driver error mode;
4. Taking full advantage of the study results of qualitative analysis of the driver reliability, the driver reliability in the process of transport logistics is analysed quantitatively by establishing the quantitative evaluation model;
5. The design ideas about the management information system are pointed out in this paper, based on the driver reliability evaluation. In particular, the design for the function of driver reliability evaluation is expounded. These works determine the design plan of the driver reliability analysis applying of the management information system.
引文
[1]金军,张殿业.驾驶员适应性及可靠性.北京:冶金工业出版社.1996:6-7
[2]高社生,张玲霞.可靠性理论与工程应用.北京:国防工业出版社.2002
[3]陈凯,陆淑兰.可靠性数学及其应用.吉林教育出版社.1989
[4]文键,覃如相.可靠性工程技术.哈尔滨工业大学出版社.2003
[5]杜文等.第三方物流.北京:机械工业出版社.2004
[6]李苏剑等.物流管理信息系统理论与案例.北京:电子工业出版社.2005:3-4
[7]裴玉龙.道路交通安全.北京:人民交通出版社.2004:11-12
[8]公安部交通管理局.中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计资料汇编2002.2002
[9]曹琦.人机工程.四川科学技术出版社.1990
[10]汪祖年.汽车驾驶员手册.人民交通出版社.1990
[11]王武宏曹琦.人的失误及其可靠性分析.西南交通大学出版社.1999
[121谢庆森.安全人机工程.天津大学出版社.1999
[13]刘玉增,王洪明.道路交通事故学.四川大学出版社.2005:92。96
[14]宁乐然.道路交通安全通论.中国人民公安大学出版社.2006
[15]姜华林.道路交通安全.人民交通出版社.1991
[16]谢季坚.模糊数学方法及其应用.华中科技大学出版社.2000
[17]宋晓秋.模糊数学原理与方法.中国矿业大学出版社.1999
[18]胡永宏.综合评价方法.科学出版社.2000
[19]邱东.多指标综合评价方法的系统分析.中国统计出版社.1991
[20]董蕊.供应链管理与第三方物流策划.中国经济出版社.2003:21-23
[21]高自友.现代物流与交通运输系统.人民交通出版社.2003
[22]廖济,铁路安全系统工程.湖南大学出版社.1987
[23]王家骅.运输管理系统工程.人民交通出版社.1985
[24]章祥荪.管理信息系统的系统理论与规划方法.科学出版社.2001
[25]仲英.管理信息系统.高等教育出版社.2006
[26]公安部交通管理局.中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计资料汇编1995.1995
[27]Williams,H.L..Reliability evaluation of the man component in man-machine systems.Elect.Manufacturing..1958
[28]Swain A.D.,Guttmann H.E..Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Application.NUREG/CR-1278.1983
[29]Rasmussen J..Information processing and human-machine interaction.North-Holland.1986
[30]Henley E.J.,Kumamoto H..Reliability Engineering and risk Assessment.Cambridge University Press.1989
[31]Swain A.D..Special Issue on Human Reliability.Reliability Engineering and System Safety.1990
[32]Reason J.Human Error.Cambridge University Press,UK.1990
[33]Reason J..Human error.New York:Cambridge University Press.1990
[34]Wichens C.D..Engineering psychology and human performance.New York:Harper Collins.1992
[35]Sanders & McCormick.Human Factors in Engineering and Design.New York:McGraw-Hill Book Company.1993
[36]CSNI.Critical Operator Actions:Human Reliability Modeling And Data Issues.Principal Working Group No.5-Task 94-1.NEA/CSNI/R(98)1.1998
[37]Strater O..Evaluation of Human Reliability on the Basis of Operational Experience.GRS-170,Cologne,Germany.2000
[38]B.S.迪隆著,周广涛译.人的可靠性.北京:宇航出版社.1991:3-4
[39]B.L.阿姆斯塔特.可靠性数学.科学出版社.1978
[40]野中保雄.可靠性数据的收集与分析方法.机械工业出版社.1988
[41]牟致忠,李泉生.人的可靠性研究综述.上海工业大学学报.1991.Vol.12(6):502-509
[42]张力等.复杂人-机系统中的人因失误.中国安全科学学报.1996(12)
[43]杨大明,人为失误原因分析与控制对策研究.中国安全科学学报.1997.Vol.7(1)
[44]高佳,黄祥瑞,沈祖培.第二代人的可靠性分析的新进展.中南工学院学报.1999.Vol.13(2)
[45]张力.人因分析面临的问题及发展趋势.中南工学院学报.1999.Vol.13 No.2
[46]高佳,黄祥瑞.人的可靠性分析:需要、状况和进展.中南工学院学报.1999.Vol.13(2)
[47]张力.人因分析:需要、问题和发展趋势.系统工程理论与实践.2001.21(6):13
[48]何旭洪,高佳,黄祥瑞.人的可靠性分析方法比较.核动力工程.2005.Vol.26 No.6
[49]赵朝义,丁玉兰.安全系统工程人为失误及其辨识技术的研究.工业安全与环保.2002.Vol.28(5)
[50]陈全君,何学秋.事故定义及其发生原因的理性分析.矿业安全与环保.2004(10)
[51]高文字,张力.人员可靠性分析系统设计.工业工程.2003.Vol.6 No.1
[52]Baddeley,A.D.&Hitch G.Working memory In G.Bower(Ed.):Recent advance in learning and motivation.New York:Academic Press.1974.Vol.8
[53]Reason J..Absent minds.New Society.1976.Vol.4
[54]Bello G.C..The Human Factors In Risk Analysis of Process Plams:The Control Room Operator Model,TESRO.Reliability Engineering.1980
[55]Norman D.A..Categorizing of action slips.Psychological Review.1981.Vol.88
[56]Rouse W.,Rouse,S.Analysis and classification of human error.IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man and Cybernetics.1983:539-549
[57]Gertman D.I..INTENT:A Method for Estimating Human Error Probabilities for Decision Based Errors.Reliability Engineering dt System Safety.1992.Vol.35:127-136
[58]Whalley S..Modeling human errors.WEEMT.1993.Vol.1(9)
[59]Rigby L..The nature of human error.Annual technical conference Transactions of the ASQC.1970
[2]高社生,张玲霞.可靠性理论与工程应用.北京:国防工业出版社.2002
[3]陈凯,陆淑兰.可靠性数学及其应用.吉林教育出版社.1989
[4]文键,覃如相.可靠性工程技术.哈尔滨工业大学出版社.2003
[5]杜文等.第三方物流.北京:机械工业出版社.2004
[6]李苏剑等.物流管理信息系统理论与案例.北京:电子工业出版社.2005:3-4
[7]裴玉龙.道路交通安全.北京:人民交通出版社.2004:11-12
[8]公安部交通管理局.中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计资料汇编2002.2002
[9]曹琦.人机工程.四川科学技术出版社.1990
[10]汪祖年.汽车驾驶员手册.人民交通出版社.1990
[11]王武宏曹琦.人的失误及其可靠性分析.西南交通大学出版社.1999
[121谢庆森.安全人机工程.天津大学出版社.1999
[13]刘玉增,王洪明.道路交通事故学.四川大学出版社.2005:92。96
[14]宁乐然.道路交通安全通论.中国人民公安大学出版社.2006
[15]姜华林.道路交通安全.人民交通出版社.1991
[16]谢季坚.模糊数学方法及其应用.华中科技大学出版社.2000
[17]宋晓秋.模糊数学原理与方法.中国矿业大学出版社.1999
[18]胡永宏.综合评价方法.科学出版社.2000
[19]邱东.多指标综合评价方法的系统分析.中国统计出版社.1991
[20]董蕊.供应链管理与第三方物流策划.中国经济出版社.2003:21-23
[21]高自友.现代物流与交通运输系统.人民交通出版社.2003
[22]廖济,铁路安全系统工程.湖南大学出版社.1987
[23]王家骅.运输管理系统工程.人民交通出版社.1985
[24]章祥荪.管理信息系统的系统理论与规划方法.科学出版社.2001
[25]仲英.管理信息系统.高等教育出版社.2006
[26]公安部交通管理局.中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计资料汇编1995.1995
[27]Williams,H.L..Reliability evaluation of the man component in man-machine systems.Elect.Manufacturing..1958
[28]Swain A.D.,Guttmann H.E..Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Application.NUREG/CR-1278.1983
[29]Rasmussen J..Information processing and human-machine interaction.North-Holland.1986
[30]Henley E.J.,Kumamoto H..Reliability Engineering and risk Assessment.Cambridge University Press.1989
[31]Swain A.D..Special Issue on Human Reliability.Reliability Engineering and System Safety.1990
[32]Reason J.Human Error.Cambridge University Press,UK.1990
[33]Reason J..Human error.New York:Cambridge University Press.1990
[34]Wichens C.D..Engineering psychology and human performance.New York:Harper Collins.1992
[35]Sanders & McCormick.Human Factors in Engineering and Design.New York:McGraw-Hill Book Company.1993
[36]CSNI.Critical Operator Actions:Human Reliability Modeling And Data Issues.Principal Working Group No.5-Task 94-1.NEA/CSNI/R(98)1.1998
[37]Strater O..Evaluation of Human Reliability on the Basis of Operational Experience.GRS-170,Cologne,Germany.2000
[38]B.S.迪隆著,周广涛译.人的可靠性.北京:宇航出版社.1991:3-4
[39]B.L.阿姆斯塔特.可靠性数学.科学出版社.1978
[40]野中保雄.可靠性数据的收集与分析方法.机械工业出版社.1988
[41]牟致忠,李泉生.人的可靠性研究综述.上海工业大学学报.1991.Vol.12(6):502-509
[42]张力等.复杂人-机系统中的人因失误.中国安全科学学报.1996(12)
[43]杨大明,人为失误原因分析与控制对策研究.中国安全科学学报.1997.Vol.7(1)
[44]高佳,黄祥瑞,沈祖培.第二代人的可靠性分析的新进展.中南工学院学报.1999.Vol.13(2)
[45]张力.人因分析面临的问题及发展趋势.中南工学院学报.1999.Vol.13 No.2
[46]高佳,黄祥瑞.人的可靠性分析:需要、状况和进展.中南工学院学报.1999.Vol.13(2)
[47]张力.人因分析:需要、问题和发展趋势.系统工程理论与实践.2001.21(6):13
[48]何旭洪,高佳,黄祥瑞.人的可靠性分析方法比较.核动力工程.2005.Vol.26 No.6
[49]赵朝义,丁玉兰.安全系统工程人为失误及其辨识技术的研究.工业安全与环保.2002.Vol.28(5)
[50]陈全君,何学秋.事故定义及其发生原因的理性分析.矿业安全与环保.2004(10)
[51]高文字,张力.人员可靠性分析系统设计.工业工程.2003.Vol.6 No.1
[52]Baddeley,A.D.&Hitch G.Working memory In G.Bower(Ed.):Recent advance in learning and motivation.New York:Academic Press.1974.Vol.8
[53]Reason J..Absent minds.New Society.1976.Vol.4
[54]Bello G.C..The Human Factors In Risk Analysis of Process Plams:The Control Room Operator Model,TESRO.Reliability Engineering.1980
[55]Norman D.A..Categorizing of action slips.Psychological Review.1981.Vol.88
[56]Rouse W.,Rouse,S.Analysis and classification of human error.IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man and Cybernetics.1983:539-549
[57]Gertman D.I..INTENT:A Method for Estimating Human Error Probabilities for Decision Based Errors.Reliability Engineering dt System Safety.1992.Vol.35:127-136
[58]Whalley S..Modeling human errors.WEEMT.1993.Vol.1(9)
[59]Rigby L..The nature of human error.Annual technical conference Transactions of the ASQC.1970
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