保罗·尼采与杜鲁门时代美国国家安全战略的制订
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摘要
本论文以美国国家安全战略制订专家保罗·尼采在杜鲁门执政时期主要工作经历与思想为核心,对他在冷战初期美国国家安全战略制订中发挥的作用作一探讨。保罗·尼采是在美国冷战史上具有重要影响的战略精英,环顾其冷战生涯,对国家安全战略制订最具影响的时期正是其担任国务院政策设计室主任的杜鲁门执政时期,他在这一时代主要起草的包括国家安全委员会第68号文件系列在内的一批战略规划文件不仅对当时也对此后美国冷战战略起到了重要的影响。本论文将试图从对其早年生涯的阐述分析入手对其思想作一初步探究,并就其思想同杜鲁门时代美国国家安全战略的影响作一分析。
全文由绪论、正文和余论三部分组成：
绪论部分提出研究课题,对相关研究趋势与著作进行回顾并列出本文研究所采用的材料来源。
正文部分共分五章：第一章简述保罗·尼采早年生活,尝试对其战略思想的根源进行探讨。第二章简述在“68号文件”这一重要战略规划的制订前美国的外部安全局势发生的变化和美国国内对这些变化的应对,并着眼于保罗·尼采在这一剧变时期的经历与他对美国政策的影响。第三章对“68号文件”从起草到修改并最终被美国总统杜鲁门签署的过程作一全面叙述,其中着重关注朝鲜战争的爆发和抗美援朝战争的开始对“68号文件”系列的修订的影响。第四章叙述“68号文件”制订之后保罗·尼采在美国国家安全战略上所起作用,包括保罗·尼采在制订国家安全委员会第114号、135号文件系列中发挥的作用,其中主要关注其与查尔斯·波伦关于对苏联意图判断上的论争。第五章则简述保罗·尼采在杜鲁门时代之后的冷战岁月中的主要经历和对美国国家安全战略的制订中发挥的作用,并总结其在杜鲁门时代展现出的冷战思想。
余论部分全面梳理冷战时代美国核战略特别是其核心核威慑战略理论与表现形式的演变,并对形成两国战略交织状况的内在逻辑提出思考。
This Dissertation focused on Paul H Nitze's contribution to the evolution of American national security strategy in the Truman Administration. Paul Nitze was a national security advisor and master negotiator to a succession of 6 American presidents throughout the Cold War. He was almost unrivalled in his breadth and depth of experience in the Cold War national security establishment of the United States. Undoubtly, the most important and influential phase of his career was during his involvement with the Truman administration, as Director of the Department of State's Policy Planning Staff. It was in this very position that Paul Nitze made a profound shift in strategic thinking that redefined U.S. national security strategy both at this time and for the next forty years. He was the principal author of famous National Security Council directive 68 (NSC 68) series, the most comprehensive and influential appraisal of American national security strategy of that time. The NSC 68 series recommended the United States move away from its prevailing military strategy of massive nuclear retaliation and towards a forward defence of the'free world',which made by a vast increase in conventional military capabilities. This dissertation makes use of several series of archival sources to offer a preliminary study to comtemporary understanding of Paul Nitze and to the relationship between Nitze's worldview or strategic thinking and the evolution of American national security strategy in the Truman administration.
This dissertation is composed of the introduction,5 chapters and epilogue:
The introduction summarized the academic achievements on the intellectuals of the Cold War especially the national security advisors, American national security strategy and gave a historiographical appaisal of Paul Nitze.
The first chapter made a descriptive record of the early days of Paul Nitze.Then illustrated his experience from "Wall Street" and the impact of witness to the aftermath of Hiroshima provided the base for his worldview and way of thinking.
The second chapter described the influence of the dramatic changes in the situation, and details Nitze's role in the thermonuclear weapon decision, then discussed the Nitze's appointment as Policy Planning Staff Director, just succeeding Kennan.
The third chapter explored the formulation of NSC 68 series and analyzed the relationship between the NSC 68 series and the Korean War. Then it discussed the dilemma of the implementation of the "Perimeter Defence"
The fourth chapter discussed the implementation of the whole NSC 68 series as the official national security policy, and explored the formation process and main points of the NSC 114 series, the NSC 135 series and NSC 141, with the contestation of the Soviet Union's intention and capability by Paul Nitze and Charles Bohlen.
The fifth chapter summaried to the main points of Paul Nitze's contribution to the Truman Administration's national security strategy and reviewed Nitze's legendary experience during the Cold War.
The epilogue discussed the evolution of nuclear deterrence strategy of the United States and the Soviet Union throughout the Cold War, and then gave some personal thinking on this issue.
全文由绪论、正文和余论三部分组成：
绪论部分提出研究课题,对相关研究趋势与著作进行回顾并列出本文研究所采用的材料来源。
正文部分共分五章：第一章简述保罗·尼采早年生活,尝试对其战略思想的根源进行探讨。第二章简述在“68号文件”这一重要战略规划的制订前美国的外部安全局势发生的变化和美国国内对这些变化的应对,并着眼于保罗·尼采在这一剧变时期的经历与他对美国政策的影响。第三章对“68号文件”从起草到修改并最终被美国总统杜鲁门签署的过程作一全面叙述,其中着重关注朝鲜战争的爆发和抗美援朝战争的开始对“68号文件”系列的修订的影响。第四章叙述“68号文件”制订之后保罗·尼采在美国国家安全战略上所起作用,包括保罗·尼采在制订国家安全委员会第114号、135号文件系列中发挥的作用,其中主要关注其与查尔斯·波伦关于对苏联意图判断上的论争。第五章则简述保罗·尼采在杜鲁门时代之后的冷战岁月中的主要经历和对美国国家安全战略的制订中发挥的作用,并总结其在杜鲁门时代展现出的冷战思想。
余论部分全面梳理冷战时代美国核战略特别是其核心核威慑战略理论与表现形式的演变,并对形成两国战略交织状况的内在逻辑提出思考。
This Dissertation focused on Paul H Nitze's contribution to the evolution of American national security strategy in the Truman Administration. Paul Nitze was a national security advisor and master negotiator to a succession of 6 American presidents throughout the Cold War. He was almost unrivalled in his breadth and depth of experience in the Cold War national security establishment of the United States. Undoubtly, the most important and influential phase of his career was during his involvement with the Truman administration, as Director of the Department of State's Policy Planning Staff. It was in this very position that Paul Nitze made a profound shift in strategic thinking that redefined U.S. national security strategy both at this time and for the next forty years. He was the principal author of famous National Security Council directive 68 (NSC 68) series, the most comprehensive and influential appraisal of American national security strategy of that time. The NSC 68 series recommended the United States move away from its prevailing military strategy of massive nuclear retaliation and towards a forward defence of the'free world',which made by a vast increase in conventional military capabilities. This dissertation makes use of several series of archival sources to offer a preliminary study to comtemporary understanding of Paul Nitze and to the relationship between Nitze's worldview or strategic thinking and the evolution of American national security strategy in the Truman administration.
This dissertation is composed of the introduction,5 chapters and epilogue:
The introduction summarized the academic achievements on the intellectuals of the Cold War especially the national security advisors, American national security strategy and gave a historiographical appaisal of Paul Nitze.
The first chapter made a descriptive record of the early days of Paul Nitze.Then illustrated his experience from "Wall Street" and the impact of witness to the aftermath of Hiroshima provided the base for his worldview and way of thinking.
The second chapter described the influence of the dramatic changes in the situation, and details Nitze's role in the thermonuclear weapon decision, then discussed the Nitze's appointment as Policy Planning Staff Director, just succeeding Kennan.
The third chapter explored the formulation of NSC 68 series and analyzed the relationship between the NSC 68 series and the Korean War. Then it discussed the dilemma of the implementation of the "Perimeter Defence"
The fourth chapter discussed the implementation of the whole NSC 68 series as the official national security policy, and explored the formation process and main points of the NSC 114 series, the NSC 135 series and NSC 141, with the contestation of the Soviet Union's intention and capability by Paul Nitze and Charles Bohlen.
The fifth chapter summaried to the main points of Paul Nitze's contribution to the Truman Administration's national security strategy and reviewed Nitze's legendary experience during the Cold War.
The epilogue discussed the evolution of nuclear deterrence strategy of the United States and the Soviet Union throughout the Cold War, and then gave some personal thinking on this issue.
引文
1保罗·尼采逝世后,沃尔福威茨曾在2004年4月的一次讲演中专门回忆他与保罗·尼采的过往经历与从其那里受到的影响,讲稿名为Paul Nitze's legacy:for a new world
1 Bruce Kuklick:Blind Oracles:Intellectuals and War from Kennan to Kissinger.Princeton University Press, 2006
1载《二十一世紀》网络版,2003年11月,总第20期
2 Stephen E. Ambrose, Rise to Globalism:American Foreign Policy Since 1938,7th Revised Edition, London: Penguin Books,1993,pp 112
3[美]希尔斯曼等著,曹大鹏译,《防务与外交决策中的政治：概念模式与官僚政治》,(北京)商务印书馆,2000年版
1[美]罗塞蒂著,周启明等译,《美国对外政策的政治学》,世界知识出版社,2005年版
2[美]艾萨克森、托马斯著,王观声等译,《美国智囊六人传》,世界知识出版社,1991年版;Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster,1986
3Wilson Miscamble, George F Kennan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950, Princeton,1992
4 James Chace, Acheson:The Secretary of State Who Created the American World, NY:Simon & Schuster,1998
5 David McLellan, Dean Acheson:The State Department years, NY:DoddMead,1976
6张小明：《乔治·凯南遏制思想研究》,北京语言学院出版社,1994年版
1[美]詹姆斯曼著,韩红等译,《布什战争内阁史》,北京大学出版社,2007年版
2[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版
3John Gaddis, We Now Know:Rethinking Cold War History, NY:Oxford University Press,1998
1 张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版
2[美]加迪斯著,潘亚玲译,《长和平(冷战史思考)》,上海人民出版社,2011年版
3 John J Mearsheimer, Conventional deterrence, Cornell University Press,1983
4[苏]A·葛罗米柯、洛梅科著,王海燕译,《核时代新思想》,新华出版社,1988年版
1[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版
2[美]邦迪著,褚广友译,《美国核战略》,世界知识出版社,1991年版
3朱明权：《美国国家安全政策》,天津人民出版社,1995年版
4资中筠：《战后美国外交史》,世界知识出版社,1994年版
5王仲春等：《美国五角大楼核作战计划揭秘》,山西人民出版社,1992年版
6王仲春等：《美国核力量与核战略》,国防大学出版社,1995年版
1吴纯思：《威慑理论与导弹防御》,(北京)长征出版社,2001年版
2崔不(主编)：《冷战时期美国对外政策史探微》,中华书局,2002年版。3牛军(主编)：《冷战时期的美苏关系》,北京大学出版社,2006年版
4周建明：《美国国家安全战略的基本逻辑：遏制战略解析》,社科文献出版社,2009年版
5戴超武：《论朝鲜战争时期美国对中国的核打击政策》,载《青岛大学学报》,1992年第1期
6 Michael Hogan, A Cross of Iron:Harry S. Truman and the Origins of the National Security State.1945-1954 NY:Cambridge University Press,1998
7比如将保罗·尼采对苏联的认识描绘为“确信苏联领导人为了夺取全球支配权会不惜一切代价,甚至愿意冒核战争的风险”,这显然同实际情况不符。详见Ibid,p294
8 Samuel Williamson, Jr & Steven Rearden, The Origins of U.S. Atomic Strategy,1945-1953 NY:St Martin' s Press,1993
1时殷弘：《敌对与冲突的由来：美国对新中国的政策与中美关系,1949-1950》,南京大学出版社,1995年版
2陶文钊：《中美关系史,1949-1972》,上海人民出版社,1999年版
3沈志华：《越过三八线：美国扩大朝鲜战争的战略决策》,载《世界历史》,1996年第5期
4 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988
Steven Rearden, The Evolution of American Strategic Doctrine:Paul H. Nitze and the Soviet Challenge Boulder, CO:Westview Press,1984
2 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990
3 Nicolas Thompson, The Hawk And The Dove:Paul Nitze, George Kennan. and the History of the Cold War, NY:Henry Holt and Company,2009
4 Strobe Talbott, The Russians and Reagan, Vintage,1984
5 Strobe Talbott, Deadly Gambits:The Reagan Administrations and the stalemate in Nuclear Arms Ciontrol, Knopf,1984
1 John Newhouse, Cold Dawn:the Story of SALT, Holt, Rinehart and Winston,1973,中译本为[美]纽豪斯著,齐沛合译,《苦寒的拂晓——限制战略武器会谈内幕》,三联书店,1974年版
2[美]汤普森著,梅仁等译,《国际关系中的思想流派》,北京大学出版社,2003年版
3詹欣：《保罗·尼采与杜鲁门政府国家安全政策》,载《社会科学战线》2005年第3期
1 Paul H Nitze,with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989
2可通过网址http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/nit0int-1查看
3可通过网址http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html查看
4譬如在炮击金门危机期间,保罗·尼采曾提出美国应敦促蒋介石政权弃守这些外围岛屿,这一说法可以在1963年他出任海军部长前的听证会记录中看法,但他在回忆录中则没有提到当时的这一想法,只称其认为美国应帮助蒋政权坚守这些岛屿。
5目前情况下可通过保罗·尼采家属授权向国会图书馆提出申请索要部分材料,本文所用部分该系列材料得到汤普森先生和昆士兰大学尤谢先生的帮助。
1可通过网址http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve03/d262查询
2以下简称PPS文件,本文采用的PPS文件材料时间跨度为1949年至1953年,这部分文件由美国国家档案与文献管理局(National Achives and Records Administration,NARA)保管,可通过网址www.archives.gov索要获取。
3可通过网址http://www.presidencv.ucsb.edu/ws/查询
4北约组织档案馆http://www.nato.int/archives/
5周建明、王成至主编：《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编(1945-1972)》,社科文献出版社,2011年版
6关于美国解密文献的局限性问题,详见张曙光：《浅谈美国外交文献的利用》,载《美国研究》2006年第4期。
1 以下对保罗·尼采早年生活的描述基本内容皆引自其回忆录的引言部分。参见Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, ppix-xxii
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p9
2 Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster, 1986, pp26-35.
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, ppxxi;Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster,1986, p484
4 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p xxi
1布利特对苏联的反感持续到战后,他在1943年曾给罗斯福递交过一份备忘录,坚称斯大林的战争目标不仅是打败德国还要控制全世界,他因此提出英美军队应进入东欧和巴尔干将苏联挡在欧洲门外。[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第3页
2 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p29; David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p30 3 "Interview with Paul Nitze,7 April 1982 by Ann Smith and Steven Rearden" Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 118, Folder 10
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p30;
2 Ibid
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p7
4 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, pp36-37
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp ix-xxi;David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p16
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p xxi
3 Ibid p27
4保罗·尼采在战略轰炸调查团的经历详见"Lessons Learnt Through USSBS", Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 131, Folder 4
5 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost -At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp25-45; "Lessons Learnt Through USSBS", Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 131, Folder 4
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp25-45;"Lessons Learnt Through USSBS", Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 131, Folder 4
2 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, pp81-88
1关于《埃伯斯塔特报告》的详细内容及其对美国建立新的国家安全体系的影响,参见牛可《埃伯斯塔特报告：战后美国安全体制的基石》,载《世界知识》,2009年第3期
2 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p319
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp ix-xxi;David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p16
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p 50
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, ppix-xxii;David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p 66
J David Mclellan, DeanAcheson:The State Department Years, New York, NY:Dodd-Mead,1976, p169
4 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p 64
5 "Interview with Paul Nitze", Talbott, Nitze Papers; Nitze Oral History, Ⅲ, P151,209; http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/nit0int-7
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p80
2 Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster, 1986, p485; David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins, 1990, pp 65-66
3“绊网战略”是指一旦苏联发动对西欧的侵袭,美国就要对苏联的指挥中心、工业中心和人口密集城市进行核打击。为此,需要在西欧部署具有相当数量的常规武装力量对苏联的进攻进行有效防御,延缓苏联占领西欧的进程,以给予美国发动核攻击的时间。
4毕竟此时苏联只是试爆了一个裂变爆炸装置,还没有实现核武器的实战化。
5关于1945至1947年美国核武器储备究竟有多少这个问题,说法很多,但各种说法的结论都是当时美国 核武器储备少得可怜。
1国防科工委情报所：《外军武器装备现状及发展趋势》, 解放军出版社,1984年,第292页
2保罗·尼采和洛珀认为当时中国使用原子弹在军事上无法起决定作用。如对我国东北工业城市沈阳、鞍山、哈尔滨等战略目标使用,将杀伤大批平民,必然招到亚洲各国人民的反对和给予苏联进一步干预的借口。如仅轰炸集结的部队和炮兵,由于中国军队的集结随美军情况而定,很难确定目标。他们认为是否使用原子弹应视战局的进一步发展而定,由国务院负责研究对华使用原子弹的政治后果,军方则可以根据“军事需要”进行相应的筹划。取自约翰纽豪斯于1986年12月2日与保罗·尼采的谈话,转引自约翰纽豪斯《核时代的战争与和平》第150页,另见FRUS,1950, Vol.Ⅶ:Korea, p.1042及Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden,From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p.110.
3 Interview with Ambassador Paul H Nitze 6/12/95 http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html
4 "wasting asset"参见 Mark Trachtenberg, A "Wasting Asset":American Strategy and the Shifting Nuclear Balance 1949-1954, International Security 3,13 (Winter 1988-1989) p 34
5这一思想后来写入了国家安全委员会第68号文件,参见Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p83
1 Lawrence Freedman, Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan,1989, p71
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p83
1 Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp304-305,[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第16页
2 George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, pp471-474;Wilson D.Miscamble, George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp304-305
3Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp 304-307;George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, pp 354-368
4关于热核武器的决策进程另见Herbert York, The Advisors:Oppenheimer, Teller and the Supper bomb, San Francisco,1976;Warner R. Schilling, " The H-Bomb Decision:How to Decide without Actually Choosing, Political Science Quarterly, March 1961, p76;David Alan Rosenberg, " American Atomic Strategy and the Hydrogen Bomb Decision," Journal of American History, June 1979, p66。
1国家安全委员会给国务院、国防部以及原子能委员会的文件备案:"The Proposed Acceleration of the Atomic Energy Program", FRUS,1949, Voll, pp559-564,
2 Richard G.Hewlett;Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield,1947-1952. University of California Press,1990, p395
3 Peter Goodchild, J.Robert Oppenheimer Shatterer of Worlds, Fromm International,1985, p197
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第78页
5 Chairman of AEC to the president "Development of a'Super'Bomb" 9 November 1949, FRUS.1949,Vol Ⅰ,pp576-583
1施特劳斯是原子能委员会中最为支持发展热核武器的代表人物,他在给奥本海默的一份备忘录中提到要为超级炸弹制订一个“量子跃迁”式的发展计划,要像研制第一颗原子弹那样投入相应的人力物力,只有这样才能保持领先地位。而且斯特劳斯坚信即便美国放弃研制这种武器,苏联也会继续研制并单方面拥有。参见约翰纽豪斯《核时代的战争与和平》第139页、加迪斯《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》第79页
2据保罗·尼采在回忆录中提到,为充分了解热核武器的原理,他在国防部长原子能顾问雷巴隆(Robert Lebaron)的引见下先后向原子能委员会的三位重要专家奥本海默、特勒和劳伦斯(Enerst Lawrence)请教过热核武器的基本情况,也因此了解到三位专家对发展这种武器的各自看法。其中令他印象最深刻的是奥本海默提出的一种看法.据奥本海默所说,苏联科学家对核聚变武器化是否可行是持怀疑态度的,所以只要美国没有研制出热核武器,苏联也就会有这种武器根本无法研制出来的错觉,奥本海默据此提出,只要美国放弃对热核武器的研究,苏联也就不可能拥有这种武器,但这种看法在劳伦斯那里被否定,劳伦斯指出苏联和美国在核武器研制进展上的保密措施是一样的,通过情报获取,苏联也在加紧独立研制热核武器,是否和何时能研制成功并不取决于美国研制的进度。参见Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld.1989, pp88-89
3 " 148th Meeting PPS", 11October,1949, FRUS,1949, Voll, pp399-403
4[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第138页,文件全文见Memo by Counsellor "International Control of Atomic Energy",20 January 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 8.
5 "Minutes of PPS Meeting",3 November 1949, FRUS,1949, Voll,pp573-576
1 "Minutes 1st Meeting PPS on International Control of Atomic Energy",11 October 1949, FRUS,1949,Vol Ⅰ,p190,另参见"Nitze to Gregg Herken",12 April 1986,Nitze Papers, Name File, Box 27 Folder 8,
2 "Minutes of PPS Meeting'",3 November 1949, FRUS,1949, Vol Ⅰ, pp 573-576
3[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版，第136页
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第78-79页
1 "President to ExecSec NSC",19 November 1949, FRUS,1949, Vol Ⅰ, pp587-588
2工作小组具体组成人员详见"President to ExecSec NSC",19 November 1949,,FRUS,1949, Vol Ⅰ, pp587-588
3 George F. Kennan, Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, p466
4 "Development of Thermonuclear Weapons",31 January 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p515
5 Memorandum of Dir PPS to SecState, "Counsellor's Paper on International Control of Atomic Energy ",17 January 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 6
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p88
2 Ibid p91; "Interview with Paul Nitze by Strobe Talbott",26 September 1986, Nitze Papers, Name Files, Box 40, Folder 10
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p93
4 Ibid, p91
1 "Development of Thermonuclear Weapons",31 January 1950, FRUS,1950, Voll, pp513-517
2[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第140-141页
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p91
4[美]杜鲁门：《杜鲁门回忆录》,(北京)三联书店出版社,1974年版。第二册,第363-367页
5 Schilling,N. R,Hammond P.Y. and G. H. Snyde:Strategy, Politics and Defense Budgets. Columbia Unirersity Press,1962,. p.291.
6参见Gorilizki, Cold Peace:Stalin and the Soviet Ruling Circle,1945-1950, Oxford University Press,2004
1关于“长电报”的内容,参见[美]乔治·凯南：《凯南长电》,译者张曙光,载张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》,附录一,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版,第329页至346页。
1[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第33页。
2肖月、朱立群主编：《简明国际关系史》,世界知识出版社,2002年版,第21页。
3这些对其遏制思想的误读详见[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,“实施遏制”一章。
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第75页
1 David Mclellan, Dean Acheson:The State Department Years, New York, NY:Dodd-Mead,1976, pp158-164
2 George F.Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, pp.397-469
3 Ibid pp366-396.
4在马歇尔任国务卿的时代,凯南提交的PPS报告是独立于其它部门直接由国务卿阅读的,而艾奇逊接任后PPS的报告则会在国务院下属各部门间传阅,有时会受到有些部门的反对,这在凯南看来有悖政策设计室建立的初衷。参见George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, p.426
5 Dean Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp.347-348
6 George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961,,p.468.
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p155; George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1950-1963, New York:Pantheon Books,1972,p60
2 "2nd Meeting of State-Defense Policy Review Group",2March1950, FRUS,1950, Voll, p 177;"Paul Nitze to Louis Halle" November 10,1983, Nitze Papers, Name File, Box 29, Folder 5
1 "Interview with Paul Nitze" by Strobe Talbott,26 September 1986, Nitze Papers, Box40, Folder 10; Nitze Oral History, Ⅱ. p213
2 Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making ofAmerican Foreign Policy.1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp8-45
3 Ibid p302
4 Nitze Oral History,Ⅱ, p210
5 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p10
6 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p70
1这个联合研究小组的13位组成人员包括:Paul Nitze、George Butler、Carlton Savage、Harry Schwatz、Robert Tufts(以上五位来自国务院政策设计室),Najeeb Halaby、James Burns、E F Cress、C F Tischbein、Robert Lebaron(以上五位来自国防部),Ted Landon(参谋长联席会议代表)、James Lay(国家安全委员会执行秘书、召集人)以及艾奇逊的助手Gordon Arneson,参见13 February 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 54
2“68号文件”在1975年被解密主要原因也是由于当时保罗·尼采在升迁中产生问题所致。详见詹欣《杜鲁门时期美国国家安全政策研究》第75页,注1
3 Paul Y Hammond, NSC68:Prologue to Rearmamen, with Warner Schilling and Glenn Snyder Strategy,Politics and Deffense Budget, Columbia University Press,1962, p314
4 Cabell Philips, The Truman Presidensy:A History of a Triumphant Succession, New York:Alfred A Kopf, 1966, p308
5 Gaddis Smith, "Dean Acheson" in Robert H Farrell(Ed)) The Amarerican Secretaries of State and their Diplomacy, New York:Coopers Square Publishers,1972, p 161
1 Meilvyn Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Standford,1992, p356
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989p97
3 Lloyd Gardner in Ernest R May (Ed) American Cold War Strategy:Interpreting NSC 68, NY:St Martins Press, 1993, pp130-151
Steven Rearden, The Evolution of American Strategic Doctrine:Paul H. Nitze and the Soviet Challenge, Boulder, CO:Westview Press,1984, pp1-8
5[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第120页
1参见"Record of the Eighth Meeting(1950) of the Pollicy Planning Staff of the Department of State",2 February 1950, FRUS,1950,Vol Ⅰ, pp142-143;8 February 1950, PPS Records, Minutes of Meetings, Box 32
2 "Draft Memorandum by the Coundellor to the Secretary of State" 17 Februay 1950, FRUS,Vol 1 pp160-167
3 Draft Position Paper (DPP) "Use of Atomic Weapons",28 February 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 6;DPP, "Alternate Policy Course on Nuclear Weapons",3 March 1950, PPS Records, Subject Files, Box 6
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost -At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p93
2 "Interview with Paul Nitze" by Steven Rearden&Ann Smith,20 April 1982, Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 118, Folder 11
3 "Memorandum byDir PPS Nitze to ExecSec NSC James Lay".8 Februay 1950, PPS Records.Subject File,Box 6
4 "Record of the Meeting of the Stat-Defense Policy Review Group",27 February 1950, FRUS.1950,Vol 1,pp168-175
1 "Record of the Meeting of the State-Defense Policy Review Group",2 March 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol I, pp176-182
2 Ibid, pp 196-200; Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster,1986, p108
3 "Record of the Meeting of the State-Defense Policy Review Group",2 March 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p201
1 Samuel Williamson, Jr & Steven Rearden, The Origins of U.S.Atomic Strategy,1945-1953 NY:St Martin' s Press,1993, p134
2 Nitze Oral History. Ⅲ p224
3[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第140页
4参见David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p103
5 Rearden" Frustrating the Kremin Design" in Brinkley (ed), Dean Acheson and the Making of US Foreign Policy (1993), pp164-165
6比如约翰逊的亲信伯恩斯,在联合小组工作期间惯常迟到早退,在形势评估与政策制订上也很难与保罗·尼采处在同一水平上,在联合小组中虽然以俩人为“双头”,但真正主导研究和起草工作的只有保罗·尼米。
7 Nitze Oral History,Ⅲ, p241; Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p93
1 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p113
2与会的高级官员包括艾奇逊、约翰逊、布莱德雷、腊斯克和来自国家安全委员会的Sidney Souers上将。
3关于这次会议情况,详见"Memorandum of Conversation at the Department of State",22 March 1950, FRUS, 1950, Vol Ⅰ pp203-206; March 1950, Dir PPS to SecState, "Today's Meeting with Secretary Johnson and General Bradley" PPS Records, Chron Files, Box 34另见"Interview with Paul Nitze" by Steven Rearden&Ann Smith 20 April 1982, Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 118, Folder 11;Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p95
4 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p96; Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp373-374
5 Ibid p374
1参见保罗·尼采的访谈记录http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze4.html
2 "Memorandum by Undersecretary James Webb",30 March 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
3 " Memorandum by Mr Charles E Bohlen to Director of Policy Planning Staff",6 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1 "Memorandum by Mr Charles E Bohlen to Director of Policy Planning Staff",6 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1 Ibid
3 Nitze, The Grand Strategy of NSC68, Speech delivered at the National War College, Wshington SC, September 20,1993, S Nelson Nrew (ed):NSC68:Forging The Strategy of Conteinment:with analysis by Paul H Nitze, National Defense University,1994, p11
4“68号文件”初版内容详见"NSC68:United States Objectives and Programs for National Security",14 April, 1950, FRUS 1950 Vol 1,pp234-292
1 "NSC68:United States Objectives and Programs for National Security",14 April,1950,FRUS 1950 Vol l,p240
2 Ibid pp243-244
3 Ibid p254
4 Ibid p244
1 Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950, Princeton University Press,1992, pp44-74
2 "Memorandum by the AstSecState for Public Affairs to SecState",6 April 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p225-226
3 "Memorandum by the AstSecState for Economic Affairs to SecState",5 April 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p218-220
4 "Memorandum by the AstSecState for European Affairs to SecState",3 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
5 Nitze Oral History, Ⅲ, p245
6 "The President to the Executive Scretary of the National Security Council",12 April 1950, FRUS.1950. Vol Ⅰ, p234-235
7 "MemCon, James Lay to Ad Hoc Committee",27 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
1 Zubok and Pleshakov,Inside the Kremlin's Cold War:From Stalin to Krsushchev, Harvard University Press, 1999, p54
2关于朝鲜战争爆发同苏联的联系,最有代表性的著作有沈志华教授的《毛泽东、斯大林与朝鲜战争》一书。参见沈志华：《毛泽东、斯大林与朝鲜战争》,广东人民出版社,2003年版
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp 104-105
2 "Report to Possible Further Soviet Moves in the Light of the Korean Situation",8 August 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box70
1 NSC73, PPS Reocrds, Working Papers, Box70
2 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, p365
3 " Memorandum by Mr John Foster Dulles, Consultant to the Secretary of State, to Director of Policy Planning Staff",14 July 1950, FRUS.1950,Vol Ⅶ, p386-387
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第115页
5 Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Northeast Asian Affairs to the Director of Policy Staff, "Policy Planning Staff" s Paper on problem of US Policy Regarding Advance Beyond the 38th Parallel by US Forces Now Engaged in Korea as part of the UN Forces",24 July 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅶ, p458-461
6 Omar Bradley, A Soldier's Life, New York:Simon & Schuster,1983, p559
77月31日国防部提交报告提出在一些条件满足的情况下,应跨越”三八线”,8月底,参联会批准了麦克阿瑟等人提出的仁川登陆计划,在这一计划实施后,是否应跨过”三八线”继续追击朝鲜人民军等问题也要求最高层尽快明确表示意见。
8 NSC81:United States Courses of Action with respect to Korea, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅶ, pp685-693
1 "The President to the Secretary of State",19 July 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol 1, p348
2 "Memorandum of Conversation, by the Secretary of State",14 July 1950, FRUS,1950 Vol Ⅰ, p345
3 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, p372
4 "Memorandum for the Ad Hoc Committee on NSC 68",22 August 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
5 Dir PPS to ExecSec NSC,7 August 1950, PPS Records Working Papers, Box54; "Soviet Intentions",15 August 1950, PPS Records Record Copies Box 36;,"Draft Prepared by Policy Planning Staff,22 September 1950, PPS Records Record Copies Box 36
1 Samuel Williamson, Jr & Steven Rearden, The Origins of U.S. Atomic Strategy,1945-1953 NY:St Martin' s Press,1993, ppl41-142
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p105
3 S Nelson Nrew (ed):NSC68:Forging The Strategy of Conteinment:with analysis by Paul H Nitze, National Defense University,1994, pp103-110
4 Note by the Executive Secretary to the National Security Council, NSC68/2 "United States Objectives and Programs for National Security",30 September 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第148页
2 Rearden, "Frustrating the Kremlin Design ", in Brinkley (ed) Dean Acheson and the Making of US Foreign Policy, (1993) p171:Rearden& Williamson, The Origins of US Nuclear Strategy,1945-1953(1993), p138
3[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第97页
1 Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp441-445
2 Ibid, pp382-401,435-440.457-459
3 Memo ExSecNSC,NSC82, "United States Position Regarding Strengthening the Defense of Europe and the Nature of Germany's Contribution Thereto",11 Semptember 1950, Truman Papers, NSC File——Meetings, Box 209; NSC 64, "The Position of the United States with Respect to Indochina",27 February 1950, FRUS, 1950, Vol Ⅵ, pp744-747.
1 "Briefing Paper on the Defense of the West",7 September 1950, PPS Records, Subject Files, Box 36
2 MemCon DirPPS, Bradley, Vandenberg, Collins, Sherman, Jessup, Perkins, rt al, "Agenda of US-UK Talks" 26 October 1950, PPS Records, Chron Files, Box 34
3 "United States Policy Toward Indochina in the Light of Recent Developments",16 August 1950, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 6; DirPPS to SecState, "The Danger in Taking the Easy Road When Dealing with Emergent Peoples," 26 September 1950, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 37
4 Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp435-440
5“普利文计划”对德国重新武装的主要限制在于不准德国设立独立的总参谋部,而这在美国的计划中是允许的。参见朱正梅,《论法国”普利文计划”的失败》 ,载《世界历史》2003年第5期
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p109
2 "The Commander in Chief, Far East to the Joint Chiefs of Staff",26 Nobember 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅶ, pp1308-1310
3 "Review of NSC73",14 December 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 70
1 "The Question of US Use of Atomic Bombs to Counter Chinese Communist Military Action in Korea" 3 November 1950,; "Memorandum",4 November 1950; "Use of the Atomic Bomb:Memorandum for Prime Minister Atlee",3 December 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 6
2 "Paul Nitze to Joseph Alsop",1 June 1954, Nitze Papers, Name Files, Box 17, Folder 9; "Paul Nitze to Gregg Herken " 12 April 1986, Nitze Papers, Name Files, Box 27, Folder 8
3 "Suggested Outline for Discussion at NSC Meeting",9 December 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol I, pp462-466
4 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p109
5 NSC68/3:The Strategy of Freedom,11 December 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1 NSC68/4:United States Objectives and Programs for National Security, December 14,1950, Ibid
2 Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace, Princeton University Press,1999, p100
3[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第121页
4 "Isolationist",本应译为“孤立主义者”,但借用加迪斯的看法,此处用“单边主义者”更为妥当。参见[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第121页
5同上,第122页
1 James Chace, Acheson:The Secretary of State Who Created the American World, New York:Simon and Schuster,1998, p 3272“大辩论”在1950年12月国会开会期间发生,参见Acheson, Present at the Creation (1969) p488-493
3 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, p405
4 Ibid, p407
5 Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, p 490
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p117
1 "Memorandum by the National Security Council by the Executive Secretary",1 June 1951, FRUS 1951 Vol 1, pp88
2 Memorandum from ExecSec NSC to NSC " US Objectives and Programs for National Security ",12 July 1951, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 39
3 Memorandum for Senior NSC Staff," Status and Timing of Current US Programs for National Security",16 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
1工作组成员包括参联会主席和各军种参谋长、国务院方面则包括保罗·尼采、腊斯克、波伦及政策设计室的几位成员。PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77
2 "State-JCS Meeting",24 January 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS,Box 77
3 Ibid
4 "The European Policy of the United States",5 February,1951, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box37; "Memorandum from SpecAst to SecState to Sec State",1 August 1951PPS Records, Working Papers Box58
1 "Full Scale Atomic Warfare Against Russia",15 May 1951, PPS Records, Subject File Box 5
2 Ibid; DirPPS to DepUnSecState for Political Affairs, "Possibilities of War with the Soviet Union 1951-1952: Use of Atomic Weapons",25 May 1951, PPS Records, Subject File Box 5
3 NSC79 "United States and Allied War Objectives in the Event of Global War",25 August 1950, FRUS, 1950.Vol Ⅰ,p390
4 PPS Member Halle to DirPPS, "Attached draft of NSC79",5 December 1952, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 68
5 DirPPS to SecState, "The Issues in NSC 114",31 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58; DirPPS to SecState, "Briefing Memorandum on NSC114/2",16 October 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 59
6保罗·尼采的观点概括自Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p117; DirPPS to Sec State, "Points of Emphasis in NSC Consideration of NSC 114/2",17 October 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 59
1 NSC114/1, "Status and Timing of Current US Programs for National Security",8 August 1951, FRUS,1951,VolI, pp127-157
1参见"State Department Consellor to DirPPS",28 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum by Counsellor",22 August 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum by Counsellor",30 August 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to Deputy Director PPS",21 September 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
2[美]查尔斯·波伦著,刘裘等译,《历史的见证(1929-1969)》,(北京)商务印书馆,1976年版,第106页
3 同上,第163页
4 " Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to Deputy Director PPS " 21 September 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
5参见"State Department Counsellor to DirPPS",28 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum by Consellor" 22 August 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
6 "Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to Deputy Director PPS",21 September 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
1 "Policy Planning Staff Memorandum" 22 September 1951, FRUS,1951,Vol I, pp172-175
2 "Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to SecState" 9 October 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
1 "Memorandum of National Council by the Executive Secretary",18 October 1951, FRUS,1951, Vol I p237
2 "Memorandum by the Counsellor to the DirPPS",19 May 1952, FRUS,1952-1954 VolⅡ,p17
3 "Memorandum by the Counsellor",27 March 1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp5-9
4 "US Objectives and Programs for National Security",19 May 1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅰ, pp17-18
1 "Memorandum by Director of the Policy Planning Staff to rhe Deputy Under Secretary of State",14 July 1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp64-68
1参见Draft Statement, "Reappaisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security",12 August 1952, FRUS.1952-1954.Vol Ⅱ:pp73-80; ExecSec Lay to NSC, "Note by the Executive Secretary to the NSC on Reappaisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security (NSC135/1)",15 August 1952, FRUS,1952-1954.Vol Ⅱ pp80-86; ExecSec Lay to NSC,"NSC Staff on Reappaisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security (NSC135/1)",22 August 1952, FRUS.1952-1954,Vol Ⅱ, pp89-113; Memo for President of Discussion at 122nd Meeting of the National Security Council,3 September 1952, FRUS,1952-1954.Vol Ⅱ p117-123
2 "The Counsellor to the Secretary of State" August 21,1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp87-88
3 "Memorandum for the President of Discussion at the 122nd Meeting of the National Security Council on Wednesday" 3 September 1952, FRUS.1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp117-123
4 NSC 135/3:Reappraisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Securtiy, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp142-156
1 "George F Kennan to SecState",20 June 1951, FRUS,1951,Vol I,P536-538。
2 "Office Memorandum",24 August 1951, FRUS,1951, VolⅠ, pp166-169:"Office Memorandum",28 August 1951, FRUS,1951, Vol Ⅰ, pp 169-170; PPS Memorandum," Re:Mr Bohlen's Memorandum of September 21 ",22 September 1951, FRUS,1951, Vol I, p172
3 DPP, "The Current Reappraisal of US Objectives and Strategy for National Security (NSC68 and 114 series) " 22 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box56
4 Counsellor Bohlen to DirPPS, "Statement of Policy on'Reappraisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security'(NSC68 and 114 Series)",1 August 1951, PPS Reocrds, Working Papers Box56
1 "Chairman of the Counsil of Economic Advisers to the President",2 November 1951, FRUS..1951.Vol Ⅰ pp245-254
1参见"State-JCS Meeting",6 February 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77
1以上工作组对美国在朝鲜半岛可能面对局面和采取行动的分析参见"State-JCS Meeting",24 January 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77;MemCon, "Korea",19 March 1951, PPS Records, Choron File, Box82; "State-JCS Meeting",28 March 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77等文件
2 DirPPS to SecState, "Questions Related to the Problem of Countering Chinese Communist Aggression Against Indochina if it Takes Place",9 March 1952, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box37
1 DirPPS to Counsellor Bohlen, "Draft Review of Indochina Section of Proposed NSC Paper on Southeast Asia", 1 April 1952, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 37
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidcnfeld,1989, pp120-128
1 "NSC141:Reexamination of United Sates Programs for National Security", January 19,1953, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ,pp209-222
2[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第127页
1Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p94
1文章数量很可观,且每篇文章都有着丰富的数据和图标资料的支撑,中心议题则是一个：苏联对美国具有明显的核优势,而美国处于极度危急之中。据其外孙汤普森先生的说法,保罗·尼采当时仍是在用这种方式引起别人对他的看法的重视,进而影响政策,所以当福特要求组建B组时,第一考虑到的人选就是保罗·尼采。
2时任总统福特要求在中情局外组建一个由外围资深人士组成的关于苏联威胁的团体,相较于中情局情报分析团队为“A组”,这个外围人士组成是“B组”(Team B),1976年时任中情局局长布什(George Bush)奉命组建了这一小组。
3报告名为"Intelligence Community Experiment in Competitive Analysis, Soviet Strategic Objectives an Alternative View, Report of Team'B,'" December 1976 U.S. Central Intelligence Agency,
1张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版,第10页
1“大平衡”理念是艾森豪威尔政府国家安全新战略的指导思想,这一新战略的文本载体——“162/2号文件”中特别强调了经济安全的问题,并要求美国从执行“68号文件”转向削减防务开支。参见郭培清：《艾森豪威尔政府的国家基本安全政策研究》,载崔丕主编：《冷战时期美国对外政策史探微》,中华书局,2002年版,第443-470页。
2参见张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源冉探》,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版,第284-285页
1相关观点参见同上著,第297-298页。
2 Interview with Ambassador Paul H Nitze 6/12/95 http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html
3 " Nitze Is Honored at Capital Memorial Service ", New York Times,24 October 2004, pp 9-14
1参见王金盛,《苏联军事战略的变化》,载《俄罗斯中亚东欧研究》 1990年第5期
1 Leon Sloss and Marc Dean Millot. "U.S. Nuclear Strategy in Evolution", Strategic Review,Vol.12,No.1, Winter 1984,p.22.
1美国国家安全委员会在1955年初的一份研究报告中将苏联目标的轻重缓急排了次序,其中排在前两位的就是保卫苏联的政权安全和国家安全以及维持苏联对东欧卫星国的控制、将中国保持在共产主义集团内。参见[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第148页
2[美]克罗卡特著,王振西主译：《五十年战争》,新华出版社,.2003年版,第219页
1 [美]乔治·凯南.著,葵阳、南木、李活译《美国外交》(增订本),世界知识出版社,1989版, 第34页.
2[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第789页
1[美]加特霍夫著,伍牛、王薇译：《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》,新华出版社,2003年版，第7页
2 John H-Herz, The Security Dilemma in the Atomic Age, NY::Columbia University Press,1959, p232.
1 [美]克罗卡特著,王振西主译：《五十年战争》新华出版社,.2003年版,第219页
2Peter Pringle and James Spiegelman, The Nuclear Barons, NY:Holt,1981, p95
3 石斌：《核时代的政治与伦理——哲学家的诘问与政治家的答辩》, 载《外交评论》2009年第1期
1, Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS): 1949, Vol Ⅰ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy", 1950, Vol Ⅰ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy", 1950, Vol Ⅶ, "Korea", 1951, Vol Ⅰ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy", 1951, Vol Ⅶ, "Korea and China", 1952-1954, Vol Ⅰ, " General and Political Matters " 1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy"
2, General Records of the Department of State Records of the Policy Planning Staff,1947-1953;(来自美国国家档案与文献管理局,National Achives and Records Administration NARA)
3, Paul Nitze Papers, Manuscript Divison:Subject File; Name File(来自美国国会图书馆)
4, Papers of Harry S Truman;
5, Dean G Acheson Papers;
6, National Security Council(NSC)File;
7, Oral History Project——Paul Nitze;
8, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)File;(来自杜鲁门总统图书馆)
9,周建明、王成至主编：《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编(1945-1972)》,社科文献出版社,2011年版。
10,梅孜：《美国国家安全战略报告汇编》,时事出版社1998年版。
11,刘同舜编：《“冷战”“遏制”和大西洋联盟——美国战略决策资料选编(1945-1950)》,复旦大学出版社,1993年版。
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3, Omar Bradley:A General's Life (New York:Simon&Schuster,1983)
4, George Kennan:Memoirs:1925-1950 (London:Huchison,1968) Memoirs:1950-1967 (New York:Pantheon,1967)
5, Paul Nitze with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden:From Hiroshima to Glasnost: At the Center of Decision-A Memoir (New York:Grove Weidenfeld,1989)
6, Harry Truman:Memoirs:Years of Trial and Hope (London Hodder&Staughton,1956)
7,保罗·尼采1990年电视采访：http://www. achievement.org/autodoc/page/nitOint-1
8,保罗·尼采1995年采访记录：http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html
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加迪斯：《长和平(冷战史思考)》,上海人民出版社,2011年版。
斯帕尼尔：《第二次世界大战后的美国外交政策》,商务印书馆,1992年版。
希尔斯曼：《防务与外交决策中的政治：概念模式与官僚政治》,商务印书馆,2000年版。
罗塞蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》,世界知识出版社,2005年版。
克罗卡特：《五十年战争》新华出版社,.2003年版。
利贝尔特(主编)：《苏联军事思想》,解放军出版社,1983年版。
Bruce Kuklick:Blind Oracles:Intellectuals and War from Kennan to Kissinger (Princeton University Press,2006)
Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, (NY:Random House,1988)
Strobe Talbott, The Russians and Reagan, (Vintage,1984)
Strobe Talbott, Deadly Gambits:The Reagan Administrations and the stalemate in Nuclear Arms Ciontrol, (Knopf,1984)
John Gaddis, We Now Know:Rethinking Cold War History, (NY:Oxford University Press,1998)
Stephen E. Ambrose, Rise to Globalism:American Foreign Policy Since 1938, (7th Revised Edition, London:Penguin Books,1993)
Steven Rearden, The Evolution of American Strategic Doctrine:Paul H. Nitze and the Soviet Challenge, (Boulder, CO:Westview Press,1984)
David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, (NY: HarperCollins,1990)
Nicolas Thompson, Hawk And The Dove:Paul Nitze, George Kennan, and the History of the Cold War, (NY:Henry Holt and Company,2009)
John J Mearsheimer, Conventional deterrence, (Cornell University Press,1983)
Michael Hogan, A Cross of Iron:Harry S. Truman and the Origins of the National Security State,1945-1954 (NY:Cambridge University Press,1998)
Samuel Williamson, Jr & Steven Rearden, The Origins of U.S.Atomic Strategy, 1945-1953 (NY:St Martin's Press,1993)
Peter Pringle and James Spiegelman, The Nuclear Barons, (NY:Holt,1981)
Meilvyn Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, (Standford,1992)
Lloyd Gardner in Ernest R May (Ed) American Cold War Strategy:Interpreting NSC 68, (NY:St Martins Press,1993)
David Mclellan, Dean Acheson:The State Department Years, (New York, NY: Dodd-Mead,1976)
James Chace:Acheson:The Secretary of State who Created the Modern World,(New York:NY, Simon & Schuster,1998)
Robert Osgood, Containment, Soviet behavior, and Grand Strategy. (Berkeley:University of California Press,1981)
Richard G. Hewlett; Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield,1947-1952. (University of California Press,1990)
Peter Goodchild, J.Robert Oppenheimer Shatterer of Worlds, (Fromm International,1985)
Wilson D.Miscamble, George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950 (Princeton University Press,1992)
Lawrence Freedman, Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, (Palgrave Macmillan, 1989)
Walter Lafeber:America, Russia and the Cold War,1945-1975, (New York, NY:Wiley,1976)
Yoram Gorlizki:Cold Peace:Stalin and the Soviet Rulling Circle,1945-1953, (New York, NY:Oxford University Press,2004)
Daniel Yergin:Shattered Peace:The Origins of the Cold War and the National Security State, (London:A.Deutsch,1978)
S Nelson-Nrew(ed):NSC68:Forging The Strategy of Conteinment-.with analysis by Paul H Nitze, (National Defense University,1994)
Steven Casey:"Selling NSC 68:The Truman Administration, Public Opinion, and the Politics of Mobilization,1950-1951", Diplomatic History,29,4,(September 2005),pp.655-690
Jerald Combs:"The Compromise that Never Was:George Kennan, Paul Nitze, and the Issue of Conventional Deterrence in Europe", Diplomatic History 15,3,(Summer 1991), pp.361-386
Paul Nitze& John Lewis Gaddis:"NSC 68 and the Soviet Threat Reconsidered", International Security,4,4,(Spring 1980),pp.164-176
1 Bruce Kuklick:Blind Oracles:Intellectuals and War from Kennan to Kissinger.Princeton University Press, 2006
1载《二十一世紀》网络版,2003年11月,总第20期
2 Stephen E. Ambrose, Rise to Globalism:American Foreign Policy Since 1938,7th Revised Edition, London: Penguin Books,1993,pp 112
3[美]希尔斯曼等著,曹大鹏译,《防务与外交决策中的政治：概念模式与官僚政治》,(北京)商务印书馆,2000年版
1[美]罗塞蒂著,周启明等译,《美国对外政策的政治学》,世界知识出版社,2005年版
2[美]艾萨克森、托马斯著,王观声等译,《美国智囊六人传》,世界知识出版社,1991年版;Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster,1986
3Wilson Miscamble, George F Kennan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950, Princeton,1992
4 James Chace, Acheson:The Secretary of State Who Created the American World, NY:Simon & Schuster,1998
5 David McLellan, Dean Acheson:The State Department years, NY:DoddMead,1976
6张小明：《乔治·凯南遏制思想研究》,北京语言学院出版社,1994年版
1[美]詹姆斯曼著,韩红等译,《布什战争内阁史》,北京大学出版社,2007年版
2[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版
3John Gaddis, We Now Know:Rethinking Cold War History, NY:Oxford University Press,1998
1 张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版
2[美]加迪斯著,潘亚玲译,《长和平(冷战史思考)》,上海人民出版社,2011年版
3 John J Mearsheimer, Conventional deterrence, Cornell University Press,1983
4[苏]A·葛罗米柯、洛梅科著,王海燕译,《核时代新思想》,新华出版社,1988年版
1[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版
2[美]邦迪著,褚广友译,《美国核战略》,世界知识出版社,1991年版
3朱明权：《美国国家安全政策》,天津人民出版社,1995年版
4资中筠：《战后美国外交史》,世界知识出版社,1994年版
5王仲春等：《美国五角大楼核作战计划揭秘》,山西人民出版社,1992年版
6王仲春等：《美国核力量与核战略》,国防大学出版社,1995年版
1吴纯思：《威慑理论与导弹防御》,(北京)长征出版社,2001年版
2崔不(主编)：《冷战时期美国对外政策史探微》,中华书局,2002年版。3牛军(主编)：《冷战时期的美苏关系》,北京大学出版社,2006年版
4周建明：《美国国家安全战略的基本逻辑：遏制战略解析》,社科文献出版社,2009年版
5戴超武：《论朝鲜战争时期美国对中国的核打击政策》,载《青岛大学学报》,1992年第1期
6 Michael Hogan, A Cross of Iron:Harry S. Truman and the Origins of the National Security State.1945-1954 NY:Cambridge University Press,1998
7比如将保罗·尼采对苏联的认识描绘为“确信苏联领导人为了夺取全球支配权会不惜一切代价,甚至愿意冒核战争的风险”,这显然同实际情况不符。详见Ibid,p294
8 Samuel Williamson, Jr & Steven Rearden, The Origins of U.S. Atomic Strategy,1945-1953 NY:St Martin' s Press,1993
1时殷弘：《敌对与冲突的由来：美国对新中国的政策与中美关系,1949-1950》,南京大学出版社,1995年版
2陶文钊：《中美关系史,1949-1972》,上海人民出版社,1999年版
3沈志华：《越过三八线：美国扩大朝鲜战争的战略决策》,载《世界历史》,1996年第5期
4 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988
Steven Rearden, The Evolution of American Strategic Doctrine:Paul H. Nitze and the Soviet Challenge Boulder, CO:Westview Press,1984
2 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990
3 Nicolas Thompson, The Hawk And The Dove:Paul Nitze, George Kennan. and the History of the Cold War, NY:Henry Holt and Company,2009
4 Strobe Talbott, The Russians and Reagan, Vintage,1984
5 Strobe Talbott, Deadly Gambits:The Reagan Administrations and the stalemate in Nuclear Arms Ciontrol, Knopf,1984
1 John Newhouse, Cold Dawn:the Story of SALT, Holt, Rinehart and Winston,1973,中译本为[美]纽豪斯著,齐沛合译,《苦寒的拂晓——限制战略武器会谈内幕》,三联书店,1974年版
2[美]汤普森著,梅仁等译,《国际关系中的思想流派》,北京大学出版社,2003年版
3詹欣：《保罗·尼采与杜鲁门政府国家安全政策》,载《社会科学战线》2005年第3期
1 Paul H Nitze,with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989
2可通过网址http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/nit0int-1查看
3可通过网址http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html查看
4譬如在炮击金门危机期间,保罗·尼采曾提出美国应敦促蒋介石政权弃守这些外围岛屿,这一说法可以在1963年他出任海军部长前的听证会记录中看法,但他在回忆录中则没有提到当时的这一想法,只称其认为美国应帮助蒋政权坚守这些岛屿。
5目前情况下可通过保罗·尼采家属授权向国会图书馆提出申请索要部分材料,本文所用部分该系列材料得到汤普森先生和昆士兰大学尤谢先生的帮助。
1可通过网址http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve03/d262查询
2以下简称PPS文件,本文采用的PPS文件材料时间跨度为1949年至1953年,这部分文件由美国国家档案与文献管理局(National Achives and Records Administration,NARA)保管,可通过网址www.archives.gov索要获取。
3可通过网址http://www.presidencv.ucsb.edu/ws/查询
4北约组织档案馆http://www.nato.int/archives/
5周建明、王成至主编：《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编(1945-1972)》,社科文献出版社,2011年版
6关于美国解密文献的局限性问题,详见张曙光：《浅谈美国外交文献的利用》,载《美国研究》2006年第4期。
1 以下对保罗·尼采早年生活的描述基本内容皆引自其回忆录的引言部分。参见Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, ppix-xxii
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p9
2 Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster, 1986, pp26-35.
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, ppxxi;Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster,1986, p484
4 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p xxi
1布利特对苏联的反感持续到战后,他在1943年曾给罗斯福递交过一份备忘录,坚称斯大林的战争目标不仅是打败德国还要控制全世界,他因此提出英美军队应进入东欧和巴尔干将苏联挡在欧洲门外。[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第3页
2 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p29; David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p30 3 "Interview with Paul Nitze,7 April 1982 by Ann Smith and Steven Rearden" Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 118, Folder 10
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p30;
2 Ibid
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p7
4 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, pp36-37
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp ix-xxi;David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p16
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p xxi
3 Ibid p27
4保罗·尼采在战略轰炸调查团的经历详见"Lessons Learnt Through USSBS", Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 131, Folder 4
5 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost -At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp25-45; "Lessons Learnt Through USSBS", Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 131, Folder 4
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp25-45;"Lessons Learnt Through USSBS", Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 131, Folder 4
2 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, pp81-88
1关于《埃伯斯塔特报告》的详细内容及其对美国建立新的国家安全体系的影响,参见牛可《埃伯斯塔特报告：战后美国安全体制的基石》,载《世界知识》,2009年第3期
2 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p319
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp ix-xxi;David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p16
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p 50
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, ppix-xxii;David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p 66
J David Mclellan, DeanAcheson:The State Department Years, New York, NY:Dodd-Mead,1976, p169
4 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p 64
5 "Interview with Paul Nitze", Talbott, Nitze Papers; Nitze Oral History, Ⅲ, P151,209; http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/nit0int-7
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p80
2 Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster, 1986, p485; David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins, 1990, pp 65-66
3“绊网战略”是指一旦苏联发动对西欧的侵袭,美国就要对苏联的指挥中心、工业中心和人口密集城市进行核打击。为此,需要在西欧部署具有相当数量的常规武装力量对苏联的进攻进行有效防御,延缓苏联占领西欧的进程,以给予美国发动核攻击的时间。
4毕竟此时苏联只是试爆了一个裂变爆炸装置,还没有实现核武器的实战化。
5关于1945至1947年美国核武器储备究竟有多少这个问题,说法很多,但各种说法的结论都是当时美国 核武器储备少得可怜。
1国防科工委情报所：《外军武器装备现状及发展趋势》, 解放军出版社,1984年,第292页
2保罗·尼采和洛珀认为当时中国使用原子弹在军事上无法起决定作用。如对我国东北工业城市沈阳、鞍山、哈尔滨等战略目标使用,将杀伤大批平民,必然招到亚洲各国人民的反对和给予苏联进一步干预的借口。如仅轰炸集结的部队和炮兵,由于中国军队的集结随美军情况而定,很难确定目标。他们认为是否使用原子弹应视战局的进一步发展而定,由国务院负责研究对华使用原子弹的政治后果,军方则可以根据“军事需要”进行相应的筹划。取自约翰纽豪斯于1986年12月2日与保罗·尼采的谈话,转引自约翰纽豪斯《核时代的战争与和平》第150页,另见FRUS,1950, Vol.Ⅶ:Korea, p.1042及Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden,From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p.110.
3 Interview with Ambassador Paul H Nitze 6/12/95 http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html
4 "wasting asset"参见 Mark Trachtenberg, A "Wasting Asset":American Strategy and the Shifting Nuclear Balance 1949-1954, International Security 3,13 (Winter 1988-1989) p 34
5这一思想后来写入了国家安全委员会第68号文件,参见Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p83
1 Lawrence Freedman, Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan,1989, p71
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p83
1 Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp304-305,[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第16页
2 George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, pp471-474;Wilson D.Miscamble, George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp304-305
3Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp 304-307;George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, pp 354-368
4关于热核武器的决策进程另见Herbert York, The Advisors:Oppenheimer, Teller and the Supper bomb, San Francisco,1976;Warner R. Schilling, " The H-Bomb Decision:How to Decide without Actually Choosing, Political Science Quarterly, March 1961, p76;David Alan Rosenberg, " American Atomic Strategy and the Hydrogen Bomb Decision," Journal of American History, June 1979, p66。
1国家安全委员会给国务院、国防部以及原子能委员会的文件备案:"The Proposed Acceleration of the Atomic Energy Program", FRUS,1949, Voll, pp559-564,
2 Richard G.Hewlett;Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield,1947-1952. University of California Press,1990, p395
3 Peter Goodchild, J.Robert Oppenheimer Shatterer of Worlds, Fromm International,1985, p197
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第78页
5 Chairman of AEC to the president "Development of a'Super'Bomb" 9 November 1949, FRUS.1949,Vol Ⅰ,pp576-583
1施特劳斯是原子能委员会中最为支持发展热核武器的代表人物,他在给奥本海默的一份备忘录中提到要为超级炸弹制订一个“量子跃迁”式的发展计划,要像研制第一颗原子弹那样投入相应的人力物力,只有这样才能保持领先地位。而且斯特劳斯坚信即便美国放弃研制这种武器,苏联也会继续研制并单方面拥有。参见约翰纽豪斯《核时代的战争与和平》第139页、加迪斯《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》第79页
2据保罗·尼采在回忆录中提到,为充分了解热核武器的原理,他在国防部长原子能顾问雷巴隆(Robert Lebaron)的引见下先后向原子能委员会的三位重要专家奥本海默、特勒和劳伦斯(Enerst Lawrence)请教过热核武器的基本情况,也因此了解到三位专家对发展这种武器的各自看法。其中令他印象最深刻的是奥本海默提出的一种看法.据奥本海默所说,苏联科学家对核聚变武器化是否可行是持怀疑态度的,所以只要美国没有研制出热核武器,苏联也就会有这种武器根本无法研制出来的错觉,奥本海默据此提出,只要美国放弃对热核武器的研究,苏联也就不可能拥有这种武器,但这种看法在劳伦斯那里被否定,劳伦斯指出苏联和美国在核武器研制进展上的保密措施是一样的,通过情报获取,苏联也在加紧独立研制热核武器,是否和何时能研制成功并不取决于美国研制的进度。参见Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld.1989, pp88-89
3 " 148th Meeting PPS", 11October,1949, FRUS,1949, Voll, pp399-403
4[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第138页,文件全文见Memo by Counsellor "International Control of Atomic Energy",20 January 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 8.
5 "Minutes of PPS Meeting",3 November 1949, FRUS,1949, Voll,pp573-576
1 "Minutes 1st Meeting PPS on International Control of Atomic Energy",11 October 1949, FRUS,1949,Vol Ⅰ,p190,另参见"Nitze to Gregg Herken",12 April 1986,Nitze Papers, Name File, Box 27 Folder 8,
2 "Minutes of PPS Meeting'",3 November 1949, FRUS,1949, Vol Ⅰ, pp 573-576
3[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版，第136页
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第78-79页
1 "President to ExecSec NSC",19 November 1949, FRUS,1949, Vol Ⅰ, pp587-588
2工作小组具体组成人员详见"President to ExecSec NSC",19 November 1949,,FRUS,1949, Vol Ⅰ, pp587-588
3 George F. Kennan, Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, p466
4 "Development of Thermonuclear Weapons",31 January 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p515
5 Memorandum of Dir PPS to SecState, "Counsellor's Paper on International Control of Atomic Energy ",17 January 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 6
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p88
2 Ibid p91; "Interview with Paul Nitze by Strobe Talbott",26 September 1986, Nitze Papers, Name Files, Box 40, Folder 10
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p93
4 Ibid, p91
1 "Development of Thermonuclear Weapons",31 January 1950, FRUS,1950, Voll, pp513-517
2[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第140-141页
3 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p91
4[美]杜鲁门：《杜鲁门回忆录》,(北京)三联书店出版社,1974年版。第二册,第363-367页
5 Schilling,N. R,Hammond P.Y. and G. H. Snyde:Strategy, Politics and Defense Budgets. Columbia Unirersity Press,1962,. p.291.
6参见Gorilizki, Cold Peace:Stalin and the Soviet Ruling Circle,1945-1950, Oxford University Press,2004
1关于“长电报”的内容,参见[美]乔治·凯南：《凯南长电》,译者张曙光,载张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》,附录一,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版,第329页至346页。
1[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第33页。
2肖月、朱立群主编：《简明国际关系史》,世界知识出版社,2002年版,第21页。
3这些对其遏制思想的误读详见[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,“实施遏制”一章。
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第75页
1 David Mclellan, Dean Acheson:The State Department Years, New York, NY:Dodd-Mead,1976, pp158-164
2 George F.Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, pp.397-469
3 Ibid pp366-396.
4在马歇尔任国务卿的时代,凯南提交的PPS报告是独立于其它部门直接由国务卿阅读的,而艾奇逊接任后PPS的报告则会在国务院下属各部门间传阅,有时会受到有些部门的反对,这在凯南看来有悖政策设计室建立的初衷。参见George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961, p.426
5 Dean Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp.347-348
6 George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1925-1950, London:Hutchinson,1961,,p.468.
1 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p155; George F. Kennan., Memoirs:1950-1963, New York:Pantheon Books,1972,p60
2 "2nd Meeting of State-Defense Policy Review Group",2March1950, FRUS,1950, Voll, p 177;"Paul Nitze to Louis Halle" November 10,1983, Nitze Papers, Name File, Box 29, Folder 5
1 "Interview with Paul Nitze" by Strobe Talbott,26 September 1986, Nitze Papers, Box40, Folder 10; Nitze Oral History, Ⅱ. p213
2 Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making ofAmerican Foreign Policy.1947-1950 Princeton University Press,1992, pp8-45
3 Ibid p302
4 Nitze Oral History,Ⅱ, p210
5 Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p10
6 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p70
1这个联合研究小组的13位组成人员包括:Paul Nitze、George Butler、Carlton Savage、Harry Schwatz、Robert Tufts(以上五位来自国务院政策设计室),Najeeb Halaby、James Burns、E F Cress、C F Tischbein、Robert Lebaron(以上五位来自国防部),Ted Landon(参谋长联席会议代表)、James Lay(国家安全委员会执行秘书、召集人)以及艾奇逊的助手Gordon Arneson,参见13 February 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 54
2“68号文件”在1975年被解密主要原因也是由于当时保罗·尼采在升迁中产生问题所致。详见詹欣《杜鲁门时期美国国家安全政策研究》第75页,注1
3 Paul Y Hammond, NSC68:Prologue to Rearmamen, with Warner Schilling and Glenn Snyder Strategy,Politics and Deffense Budget, Columbia University Press,1962, p314
4 Cabell Philips, The Truman Presidensy:A History of a Triumphant Succession, New York:Alfred A Kopf, 1966, p308
5 Gaddis Smith, "Dean Acheson" in Robert H Farrell(Ed)) The Amarerican Secretaries of State and their Diplomacy, New York:Coopers Square Publishers,1972, p 161
1 Meilvyn Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Standford,1992, p356
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989p97
3 Lloyd Gardner in Ernest R May (Ed) American Cold War Strategy:Interpreting NSC 68, NY:St Martins Press, 1993, pp130-151
Steven Rearden, The Evolution of American Strategic Doctrine:Paul H. Nitze and the Soviet Challenge, Boulder, CO:Westview Press,1984, pp1-8
5[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第120页
1参见"Record of the Eighth Meeting(1950) of the Pollicy Planning Staff of the Department of State",2 February 1950, FRUS,1950,Vol Ⅰ, pp142-143;8 February 1950, PPS Records, Minutes of Meetings, Box 32
2 "Draft Memorandum by the Coundellor to the Secretary of State" 17 Februay 1950, FRUS,Vol 1 pp160-167
3 Draft Position Paper (DPP) "Use of Atomic Weapons",28 February 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 6;DPP, "Alternate Policy Course on Nuclear Weapons",3 March 1950, PPS Records, Subject Files, Box 6
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost -At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p93
2 "Interview with Paul Nitze" by Steven Rearden&Ann Smith,20 April 1982, Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 118, Folder 11
3 "Memorandum byDir PPS Nitze to ExecSec NSC James Lay".8 Februay 1950, PPS Records.Subject File,Box 6
4 "Record of the Meeting of the Stat-Defense Policy Review Group",27 February 1950, FRUS.1950,Vol 1,pp168-175
1 "Record of the Meeting of the State-Defense Policy Review Group",2 March 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol I, pp176-182
2 Ibid, pp 196-200; Walter Isaacson & Evan Thomas, The Wise Men:Six Friends and the World They Made, NY:Simon & Schuster,1986, p108
3 "Record of the Meeting of the State-Defense Policy Review Group",2 March 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p201
1 Samuel Williamson, Jr & Steven Rearden, The Origins of U.S.Atomic Strategy,1945-1953 NY:St Martin' s Press,1993, p134
2 Nitze Oral History. Ⅲ p224
3[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第140页
4参见David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p103
5 Rearden" Frustrating the Kremin Design" in Brinkley (ed), Dean Acheson and the Making of US Foreign Policy (1993), pp164-165
6比如约翰逊的亲信伯恩斯,在联合小组工作期间惯常迟到早退,在形势评估与政策制订上也很难与保罗·尼采处在同一水平上,在联合小组中虽然以俩人为“双头”,但真正主导研究和起草工作的只有保罗·尼米。
7 Nitze Oral History,Ⅲ, p241; Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p93
1 David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities:Paul Nitze and the Cold War, NY:HarperCollins,1990, p113
2与会的高级官员包括艾奇逊、约翰逊、布莱德雷、腊斯克和来自国家安全委员会的Sidney Souers上将。
3关于这次会议情况,详见"Memorandum of Conversation at the Department of State",22 March 1950, FRUS, 1950, Vol Ⅰ pp203-206; March 1950, Dir PPS to SecState, "Today's Meeting with Secretary Johnson and General Bradley" PPS Records, Chron Files, Box 34另见"Interview with Paul Nitze" by Steven Rearden&Ann Smith 20 April 1982, Nitze Papers, Subject File, Box 118, Folder 11;Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p95
4 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p96; Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp373-374
5 Ibid p374
1参见保罗·尼采的访谈记录http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze4.html
2 "Memorandum by Undersecretary James Webb",30 March 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
3 " Memorandum by Mr Charles E Bohlen to Director of Policy Planning Staff",6 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1 "Memorandum by Mr Charles E Bohlen to Director of Policy Planning Staff",6 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1 Ibid
3 Nitze, The Grand Strategy of NSC68, Speech delivered at the National War College, Wshington SC, September 20,1993, S Nelson Nrew (ed):NSC68:Forging The Strategy of Conteinment:with analysis by Paul H Nitze, National Defense University,1994, p11
4“68号文件”初版内容详见"NSC68:United States Objectives and Programs for National Security",14 April, 1950, FRUS 1950 Vol 1,pp234-292
1 "NSC68:United States Objectives and Programs for National Security",14 April,1950,FRUS 1950 Vol l,p240
2 Ibid pp243-244
3 Ibid p254
4 Ibid p244
1 Wilson D.Miscamble,.George F Kenan and the Making of American Foreign Policy,1947-1950, Princeton University Press,1992, pp44-74
2 "Memorandum by the AstSecState for Public Affairs to SecState",6 April 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p225-226
3 "Memorandum by the AstSecState for Economic Affairs to SecState",5 April 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅰ, p218-220
4 "Memorandum by the AstSecState for European Affairs to SecState",3 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
5 Nitze Oral History, Ⅲ, p245
6 "The President to the Executive Scretary of the National Security Council",12 April 1950, FRUS.1950. Vol Ⅰ, p234-235
7 "MemCon, James Lay to Ad Hoc Committee",27 April 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
1 Zubok and Pleshakov,Inside the Kremlin's Cold War:From Stalin to Krsushchev, Harvard University Press, 1999, p54
2关于朝鲜战争爆发同苏联的联系,最有代表性的著作有沈志华教授的《毛泽东、斯大林与朝鲜战争》一书。参见沈志华：《毛泽东、斯大林与朝鲜战争》,广东人民出版社,2003年版
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, pp 104-105
2 "Report to Possible Further Soviet Moves in the Light of the Korean Situation",8 August 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box70
1 NSC73, PPS Reocrds, Working Papers, Box70
2 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, p365
3 " Memorandum by Mr John Foster Dulles, Consultant to the Secretary of State, to Director of Policy Planning Staff",14 July 1950, FRUS.1950,Vol Ⅶ, p386-387
4[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第115页
5 Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Northeast Asian Affairs to the Director of Policy Staff, "Policy Planning Staff" s Paper on problem of US Policy Regarding Advance Beyond the 38th Parallel by US Forces Now Engaged in Korea as part of the UN Forces",24 July 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅶ, p458-461
6 Omar Bradley, A Soldier's Life, New York:Simon & Schuster,1983, p559
77月31日国防部提交报告提出在一些条件满足的情况下,应跨越”三八线”,8月底,参联会批准了麦克阿瑟等人提出的仁川登陆计划,在这一计划实施后,是否应跨过”三八线”继续追击朝鲜人民军等问题也要求最高层尽快明确表示意见。
8 NSC81:United States Courses of Action with respect to Korea, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅶ, pp685-693
1 "The President to the Secretary of State",19 July 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol 1, p348
2 "Memorandum of Conversation, by the Secretary of State",14 July 1950, FRUS,1950 Vol Ⅰ, p345
3 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, p372
4 "Memorandum for the Ad Hoc Committee on NSC 68",22 August 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box54
5 Dir PPS to ExecSec NSC,7 August 1950, PPS Records Working Papers, Box54; "Soviet Intentions",15 August 1950, PPS Records Record Copies Box 36;,"Draft Prepared by Policy Planning Staff,22 September 1950, PPS Records Record Copies Box 36
1 Samuel Williamson, Jr & Steven Rearden, The Origins of U.S. Atomic Strategy,1945-1953 NY:St Martin' s Press,1993, ppl41-142
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p105
3 S Nelson Nrew (ed):NSC68:Forging The Strategy of Conteinment:with analysis by Paul H Nitze, National Defense University,1994, pp103-110
4 Note by the Executive Secretary to the National Security Council, NSC68/2 "United States Objectives and Programs for National Security",30 September 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第148页
2 Rearden, "Frustrating the Kremlin Design ", in Brinkley (ed) Dean Acheson and the Making of US Foreign Policy, (1993) p171:Rearden& Williamson, The Origins of US Nuclear Strategy,1945-1953(1993), p138
3[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第97页
1 Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp441-445
2 Ibid, pp382-401,435-440.457-459
3 Memo ExSecNSC,NSC82, "United States Position Regarding Strengthening the Defense of Europe and the Nature of Germany's Contribution Thereto",11 Semptember 1950, Truman Papers, NSC File——Meetings, Box 209; NSC 64, "The Position of the United States with Respect to Indochina",27 February 1950, FRUS, 1950, Vol Ⅵ, pp744-747.
1 "Briefing Paper on the Defense of the West",7 September 1950, PPS Records, Subject Files, Box 36
2 MemCon DirPPS, Bradley, Vandenberg, Collins, Sherman, Jessup, Perkins, rt al, "Agenda of US-UK Talks" 26 October 1950, PPS Records, Chron Files, Box 34
3 "United States Policy Toward Indochina in the Light of Recent Developments",16 August 1950, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 6; DirPPS to SecState, "The Danger in Taking the Easy Road When Dealing with Emergent Peoples," 26 September 1950, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 37
4 Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, pp435-440
5“普利文计划”对德国重新武装的主要限制在于不准德国设立独立的总参谋部,而这在美国的计划中是允许的。参见朱正梅,《论法国”普利文计划”的失败》 ,载《世界历史》2003年第5期
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p109
2 "The Commander in Chief, Far East to the Joint Chiefs of Staff",26 Nobember 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol Ⅶ, pp1308-1310
3 "Review of NSC73",14 December 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 70
1 "The Question of US Use of Atomic Bombs to Counter Chinese Communist Military Action in Korea" 3 November 1950,; "Memorandum",4 November 1950; "Use of the Atomic Bomb:Memorandum for Prime Minister Atlee",3 December 1950, PPS Records, Subject File, Box 6
2 "Paul Nitze to Joseph Alsop",1 June 1954, Nitze Papers, Name Files, Box 17, Folder 9; "Paul Nitze to Gregg Herken " 12 April 1986, Nitze Papers, Name Files, Box 27, Folder 8
3 "Suggested Outline for Discussion at NSC Meeting",9 December 1950, FRUS,1950, Vol I, pp462-466
4 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p109
5 NSC68/3:The Strategy of Freedom,11 December 1950, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58
1 NSC68/4:United States Objectives and Programs for National Security, December 14,1950, Ibid
2 Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace, Princeton University Press,1999, p100
3[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第121页
4 "Isolationist",本应译为“孤立主义者”,但借用加迪斯的看法,此处用“单边主义者”更为妥当。参见[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第121页
5同上,第122页
1 James Chace, Acheson:The Secretary of State Who Created the American World, New York:Simon and Schuster,1998, p 3272“大辩论”在1950年12月国会开会期间发生,参见Acheson, Present at the Creation (1969) p488-493
3 Melvyn P Leffler, A Preponderance of Power:National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford,1992, p405
4 Ibid, p407
5 Acheson, Present at the creation:My Years in the State Department, London:Hamish Hamilton,1970, p 490
1 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p117
1 "Memorandum by the National Security Council by the Executive Secretary",1 June 1951, FRUS 1951 Vol 1, pp88
2 Memorandum from ExecSec NSC to NSC " US Objectives and Programs for National Security ",12 July 1951, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 39
3 Memorandum for Senior NSC Staff," Status and Timing of Current US Programs for National Security",16 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
1工作组成员包括参联会主席和各军种参谋长、国务院方面则包括保罗·尼采、腊斯克、波伦及政策设计室的几位成员。PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77
2 "State-JCS Meeting",24 January 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS,Box 77
3 Ibid
4 "The European Policy of the United States",5 February,1951, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box37; "Memorandum from SpecAst to SecState to Sec State",1 August 1951PPS Records, Working Papers Box58
1 "Full Scale Atomic Warfare Against Russia",15 May 1951, PPS Records, Subject File Box 5
2 Ibid; DirPPS to DepUnSecState for Political Affairs, "Possibilities of War with the Soviet Union 1951-1952: Use of Atomic Weapons",25 May 1951, PPS Records, Subject File Box 5
3 NSC79 "United States and Allied War Objectives in the Event of Global War",25 August 1950, FRUS, 1950.Vol Ⅰ,p390
4 PPS Member Halle to DirPPS, "Attached draft of NSC79",5 December 1952, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 68
5 DirPPS to SecState, "The Issues in NSC 114",31 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 58; DirPPS to SecState, "Briefing Memorandum on NSC114/2",16 October 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 59
6保罗·尼采的观点概括自Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidenfeld,1989, p117; DirPPS to Sec State, "Points of Emphasis in NSC Consideration of NSC 114/2",17 October 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box 59
1 NSC114/1, "Status and Timing of Current US Programs for National Security",8 August 1951, FRUS,1951,VolI, pp127-157
1参见"State Department Consellor to DirPPS",28 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum by Counsellor",22 August 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum by Counsellor",30 August 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to Deputy Director PPS",21 September 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
2[美]查尔斯·波伦著,刘裘等译,《历史的见证(1929-1969)》,(北京)商务印书馆,1976年版,第106页
3 同上,第163页
4 " Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to Deputy Director PPS " 21 September 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
5参见"State Department Counsellor to DirPPS",28 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58; "Memorandum by Consellor" 22 August 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
6 "Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to Deputy Director PPS",21 September 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
1 "Policy Planning Staff Memorandum" 22 September 1951, FRUS,1951,Vol I, pp172-175
2 "Memorandum from State Department Counsellor to SecState" 9 October 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box58
1 "Memorandum of National Council by the Executive Secretary",18 October 1951, FRUS,1951, Vol I p237
2 "Memorandum by the Counsellor to the DirPPS",19 May 1952, FRUS,1952-1954 VolⅡ,p17
3 "Memorandum by the Counsellor",27 March 1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp5-9
4 "US Objectives and Programs for National Security",19 May 1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅰ, pp17-18
1 "Memorandum by Director of the Policy Planning Staff to rhe Deputy Under Secretary of State",14 July 1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp64-68
1参见Draft Statement, "Reappaisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security",12 August 1952, FRUS.1952-1954.Vol Ⅱ:pp73-80; ExecSec Lay to NSC, "Note by the Executive Secretary to the NSC on Reappaisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security (NSC135/1)",15 August 1952, FRUS,1952-1954.Vol Ⅱ pp80-86; ExecSec Lay to NSC,"NSC Staff on Reappaisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security (NSC135/1)",22 August 1952, FRUS.1952-1954,Vol Ⅱ, pp89-113; Memo for President of Discussion at 122nd Meeting of the National Security Council,3 September 1952, FRUS,1952-1954.Vol Ⅱ p117-123
2 "The Counsellor to the Secretary of State" August 21,1952, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp87-88
3 "Memorandum for the President of Discussion at the 122nd Meeting of the National Security Council on Wednesday" 3 September 1952, FRUS.1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp117-123
4 NSC 135/3:Reappraisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Securtiy, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, pp142-156
1 "George F Kennan to SecState",20 June 1951, FRUS,1951,Vol I,P536-538。
2 "Office Memorandum",24 August 1951, FRUS,1951, VolⅠ, pp166-169:"Office Memorandum",28 August 1951, FRUS,1951, Vol Ⅰ, pp 169-170; PPS Memorandum," Re:Mr Bohlen's Memorandum of September 21 ",22 September 1951, FRUS,1951, Vol I, p172
3 DPP, "The Current Reappraisal of US Objectives and Strategy for National Security (NSC68 and 114 series) " 22 July 1951, PPS Records, Working Papers, Box56
4 Counsellor Bohlen to DirPPS, "Statement of Policy on'Reappraisal of United States Objectives and Strategy for National Security'(NSC68 and 114 Series)",1 August 1951, PPS Reocrds, Working Papers Box56
1 "Chairman of the Counsil of Economic Advisers to the President",2 November 1951, FRUS..1951.Vol Ⅰ pp245-254
1参见"State-JCS Meeting",6 February 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77
1以上工作组对美国在朝鲜半岛可能面对局面和采取行动的分析参见"State-JCS Meeting",24 January 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77;MemCon, "Korea",19 March 1951, PPS Records, Choron File, Box82; "State-JCS Meeting",28 March 1951, PPS Records, State-JCS, Box77等文件
2 DirPPS to SecState, "Questions Related to the Problem of Countering Chinese Communist Aggression Against Indochina if it Takes Place",9 March 1952, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box37
1 DirPPS to Counsellor Bohlen, "Draft Review of Indochina Section of Proposed NSC Paper on Southeast Asia", 1 April 1952, PPS Records, Record Copies, Box 37
2 Paul H Nitze, with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden, From Hiroshima to Glasnost-At the Centre of Decision, New York NY:Grove Weidcnfeld,1989, pp120-128
1 "NSC141:Reexamination of United Sates Programs for National Security", January 19,1953, FRUS,1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ,pp209-222
2[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第127页
1Strobe Talbott, The Master of the Game:Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace, NY:Random House,1988, p94
1文章数量很可观,且每篇文章都有着丰富的数据和图标资料的支撑,中心议题则是一个：苏联对美国具有明显的核优势,而美国处于极度危急之中。据其外孙汤普森先生的说法,保罗·尼采当时仍是在用这种方式引起别人对他的看法的重视,进而影响政策,所以当福特要求组建B组时,第一考虑到的人选就是保罗·尼采。
2时任总统福特要求在中情局外组建一个由外围资深人士组成的关于苏联威胁的团体,相较于中情局情报分析团队为“A组”,这个外围人士组成是“B组”(Team B),1976年时任中情局局长布什(George Bush)奉命组建了这一小组。
3报告名为"Intelligence Community Experiment in Competitive Analysis, Soviet Strategic Objectives an Alternative View, Report of Team'B,'" December 1976 U.S. Central Intelligence Agency,
1张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版,第10页
1“大平衡”理念是艾森豪威尔政府国家安全新战略的指导思想,这一新战略的文本载体——“162/2号文件”中特别强调了经济安全的问题,并要求美国从执行“68号文件”转向削减防务开支。参见郭培清：《艾森豪威尔政府的国家基本安全政策研究》,载崔丕主编：《冷战时期美国对外政策史探微》,中华书局,2002年版,第443-470页。
2参见张曙光：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源冉探》,上海外语教育出版社,2007年版,第284-285页
1相关观点参见同上著,第297-298页。
2 Interview with Ambassador Paul H Nitze 6/12/95 http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html
3 " Nitze Is Honored at Capital Memorial Service ", New York Times,24 October 2004, pp 9-14
1参见王金盛,《苏联军事战略的变化》,载《俄罗斯中亚东欧研究》 1990年第5期
1 Leon Sloss and Marc Dean Millot. "U.S. Nuclear Strategy in Evolution", Strategic Review,Vol.12,No.1, Winter 1984,p.22.
1美国国家安全委员会在1955年初的一份研究报告中将苏联目标的轻重缓急排了次序,其中排在前两位的就是保卫苏联的政权安全和国家安全以及维持苏联对东欧卫星国的控制、将中国保持在共产主义集团内。参见[美]加迪斯著,时殷弘等译,《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》,世界知识出版社,2005年版,第148页
2[美]克罗卡特著,王振西主译：《五十年战争》,新华出版社,.2003年版,第219页
1 [美]乔治·凯南.著,葵阳、南木、李活译《美国外交》(增订本),世界知识出版社,1989版, 第34页.
2[美]纽豪斯著,军事科学院外国军事研究部译,《核时代的战争与和平》,军事科学出版社,1989年10月版,第789页
1[美]加特霍夫著,伍牛、王薇译：《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》,新华出版社,2003年版，第7页
2 John H-Herz, The Security Dilemma in the Atomic Age, NY::Columbia University Press,1959, p232.
1 [美]克罗卡特著,王振西主译：《五十年战争》新华出版社,.2003年版,第219页
2Peter Pringle and James Spiegelman, The Nuclear Barons, NY:Holt,1981, p95
3 石斌：《核时代的政治与伦理——哲学家的诘问与政治家的答辩》, 载《外交评论》2009年第1期
1, Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS): 1949, Vol Ⅰ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy", 1950, Vol Ⅰ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy", 1950, Vol Ⅶ, "Korea", 1951, Vol Ⅰ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy", 1951, Vol Ⅶ, "Korea and China", 1952-1954, Vol Ⅰ, " General and Political Matters " 1952-1954, Vol Ⅱ, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy"
2, General Records of the Department of State Records of the Policy Planning Staff,1947-1953;(来自美国国家档案与文献管理局,National Achives and Records Administration NARA)
3, Paul Nitze Papers, Manuscript Divison:Subject File; Name File(来自美国国会图书馆)
4, Papers of Harry S Truman;
5, Dean G Acheson Papers;
6, National Security Council(NSC)File;
7, Oral History Project——Paul Nitze;
8, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)File;(来自杜鲁门总统图书馆)
9,周建明、王成至主编：《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编(1945-1972)》,社科文献出版社,2011年版。
10,梅孜：《美国国家安全战略报告汇编》,时事出版社1998年版。
11,刘同舜编：《“冷战”“遏制”和大西洋联盟——美国战略决策资料选编(1945-1950)》,复旦大学出版社,1993年版。
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2, Charels Bohlen:Witmess to History,1929-1969 (New York:Norton,1973) 中译本：《历史的见证1929-1969》北京商务印书馆1976版
3, Omar Bradley:A General's Life (New York:Simon&Schuster,1983)
4, George Kennan:Memoirs:1925-1950 (London:Huchison,1968) Memoirs:1950-1967 (New York:Pantheon,1967)
5, Paul Nitze with Ann Smith and Steven Rearden:From Hiroshima to Glasnost: At the Center of Decision-A Memoir (New York:Grove Weidenfeld,1989)
6, Harry Truman:Memoirs:Years of Trial and Hope (London Hodder&Staughton,1956)
7,保罗·尼采1990年电视采访：http://www. achievement.org/autodoc/page/nitOint-1
8,保罗·尼采1995年采访记录：http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/coldwar/interviews/episode-24/nitze3.html
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John J Mearsheimer, Conventional deterrence, (Cornell University Press,1983)
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Peter Goodchild, J.Robert Oppenheimer Shatterer of Worlds, (Fromm International,1985)
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