浙江省入境旅游客源结构及需求影响因素研究
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摘要
当前国际旅游业快速发展,世界各国对入境旅游业重视度越来越高,浙江省入境旅游业近年来发展势头强劲,全省入境旅游人数全国排名跻身前三,下一步战略制定需要入境旅游市场结构及影响因素的科学研究支持。尽管入境旅游研究已经产生了许多研究成果,浙江省入境旅游市场方面的研究成果较为有限,因此利用定量分析方法,深入研究浙江省入境旅游客源市场的现状与动态发展趋势以及探究入境旅游需求影响因素对浙江省入境旅游市场竞争力提升具有重要意义。
本文界定了入境旅游的相关概念,总结了入境旅游客源结构和需求影响因素方面的研究进展,依据浙江省入境旅游相关统计资料,通过数据整理和图表构建对入境旅游客源的总体特征、时空特征、入境游客特征进行了详细的分析,深入认识了浙江省入境客源的组成结构和入境游客的行为与偏好。其次,本文采用了转移-份额分析方法对浙江省入境旅游客源市场份额及变化趋势、浙江省入境旅游目的地结构份额及竞争力状况进行了研究,同时运用基于时间序列的双对数线性模型评估了入境旅游需求的影响因素,得到对入境旅游需求起到显著影响的因素及其影响程度的大小,为浙江省入境旅游客源市场细分、入境旅游产品设计和目的地结构优化提供了科学依据,并结合浙江省旅游资源特色,为浙江省入境旅游产品设计、市场开拓及营销战略提出对策建议。
Today the international tourism develops rapidly. The world is giving higher degree of emphasis on inbound tourism. The inbound tourism of Zhejiang Province grows strongly in recent years. The number of tourists that arrive Zhejiang Province was among the top three of national ranking. The next step strategy to develop inbound tourism market needs support of scientific of structure and influencing factors. Although inbound tourism research has produced a number of research results, inbound tourism market research of Zhejiang Province is more limited. Therefore, it is great significance to use quantitative methods, in-depth study of the status of inbound tourism source markets and dynamic development of inbound tourism demand trends, and explore the impact of factors on the inbound tourism market of Zhejiang Province to enhance the competitiveness.
This paper defines the concepts of inbound tourism, tourist entry summary and demand factors affecting the structure of research progress. And bases on inbound tourism-related statistics of Zhejiang Province, through the collation of data and charts to build on the general characteristics of inbound tourists, time and space characteristics, characteristics of tourists a detailed analysis. And understands the source of the structure of Zhejiang Province, and the entry of tourists' behavior and preferences. Second, this research use the shift-share analysis method, analyzed tourism market share trends, share structure, Zhejiang Province tourism destination entry and competitiveness of the status of the study. And also used two-time series which based on the use of log-linear models to assess the factors affecting the demand for inbound tourism. As a result, this paper gained inbound tourism demand and the significant factors affecting the degree of influence the size of the tourist market segmentation. It provided scientific evidence of inbound tourism destination of the product design and optimization of the structure, combined with the characteristics of tourism resources in Zhejiang Province. And put forward countermeasures and suggestions about inbound tourism product design, market development and marketing strategy of Zhejiang Province.
本文界定了入境旅游的相关概念,总结了入境旅游客源结构和需求影响因素方面的研究进展,依据浙江省入境旅游相关统计资料,通过数据整理和图表构建对入境旅游客源的总体特征、时空特征、入境游客特征进行了详细的分析,深入认识了浙江省入境客源的组成结构和入境游客的行为与偏好。其次,本文采用了转移-份额分析方法对浙江省入境旅游客源市场份额及变化趋势、浙江省入境旅游目的地结构份额及竞争力状况进行了研究,同时运用基于时间序列的双对数线性模型评估了入境旅游需求的影响因素,得到对入境旅游需求起到显著影响的因素及其影响程度的大小,为浙江省入境旅游客源市场细分、入境旅游产品设计和目的地结构优化提供了科学依据,并结合浙江省旅游资源特色,为浙江省入境旅游产品设计、市场开拓及营销战略提出对策建议。
Today the international tourism develops rapidly. The world is giving higher degree of emphasis on inbound tourism. The inbound tourism of Zhejiang Province grows strongly in recent years. The number of tourists that arrive Zhejiang Province was among the top three of national ranking. The next step strategy to develop inbound tourism market needs support of scientific of structure and influencing factors. Although inbound tourism research has produced a number of research results, inbound tourism market research of Zhejiang Province is more limited. Therefore, it is great significance to use quantitative methods, in-depth study of the status of inbound tourism source markets and dynamic development of inbound tourism demand trends, and explore the impact of factors on the inbound tourism market of Zhejiang Province to enhance the competitiveness.
This paper defines the concepts of inbound tourism, tourist entry summary and demand factors affecting the structure of research progress. And bases on inbound tourism-related statistics of Zhejiang Province, through the collation of data and charts to build on the general characteristics of inbound tourists, time and space characteristics, characteristics of tourists a detailed analysis. And understands the source of the structure of Zhejiang Province, and the entry of tourists' behavior and preferences. Second, this research use the shift-share analysis method, analyzed tourism market share trends, share structure, Zhejiang Province tourism destination entry and competitiveness of the status of the study. And also used two-time series which based on the use of log-linear models to assess the factors affecting the demand for inbound tourism. As a result, this paper gained inbound tourism demand and the significant factors affecting the degree of influence the size of the tourist market segmentation. It provided scientific evidence of inbound tourism destination of the product design and optimization of the structure, combined with the characteristics of tourism resources in Zhejiang Province. And put forward countermeasures and suggestions about inbound tourism product design, market development and marketing strategy of Zhejiang Province.
引文
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[17]Gray N J, Campbell L M. A decomodified experience Exploring aesthetic, economic and ethical values for volunteer ecotourism in Costa Rica [J]. Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2007,15(5):463-482.
[18]Elizabeth Frediline, Bill Faulkner. Host Community Reactions-A Cluster Analysis [J]. Annals of Tourism Research,2000,27(3):763-781
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[21]Keith G, Debbage. Spatial behavior in a Bahamian resort [J]. Annals of Tourism Research,1991,18(2):251-268
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[27]Jan Will em Velthuijsen, Michel Verhagen. A simulation model of the Dutch tourism market [J]. Annals of Tourism Research,1994,21 (4):812-827.
[28]Martin Oppermann. International tourism flow in Malaysia [J]. Annals of Tourism Research,1992,19(3):482-500
[29]Gerard S, Dharnaratne. Forecasting tourism arrivals in Barbados [J]. Annals of Tourism Research,1995,22(4).804-818
[30]石张宇,郭舒,于丽艳.辽宁省入境旅游市场基本特征分析[J].商业研究,2006,354(22)：185-189
[31]李馥利,吴晋峰,马耀峰.基于旅游流转移的陕西省入境旅游时空动态分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(11)：156-159
[32]张心灵,王平心.1990年以来陕西入境旅游市场特征及其趋势分析[J].数理统计与管理,2005,25(5)：27-31
[33]吴黎围,熊正贤,吴晋峰.广西入境旅游客源市场结构变化分析[J]社会科学家,2009,151(11)：95-99
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[35]张捷雷.浙江省国际旅游市场客源结构分析[J].经济论坛,2007,2：24-27
[36]杨靖,朱创业,蒋芩.四川省入境旅游市场营销[J].旅游经济,2007,2：185-189
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