中国民航运输业市场化改革绩效的实证研究
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摘要
目前,民航运输业已成为中国整个交通运输体系的重要组成部分。近几十年以来,民航运输产业的增长速度大大超过GDP的增长速度,在国民经济运行中的作用越来越重要。但是中国的民航运输产业目前仍然属于朝阳产业,民航运输产业的增长是在原来的体制下进行扩大再生产的结果,其发展的速度虽然比较快,但是尚未完全进入稳定期。因此,在未来的几十年里,中国的民航运输产业仍然存在广阔的发展空间和巨大的潜力。时至今日,距离上次改革已经将近十年,目前的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效如何,改革对民航运输业和民航公司效益的促进作用有多大,中国民航运输业市场化改革的效果究竟如何,这些问题的答案是民航运输业继续深化改革的关键。从实践方面看,随着民航运输业市场化改革的逐步推进,对民航运输业的认识和看法引起学术界和政策层面的广泛关注。改革绩效的判断已成为正确评价民航运输业改革绩效的关键环节,直接关系到继续深化改革的路径选择。民航运输业市场化改革是否实现了预期的效果,超过或背离改革目标的程度如何,正是文章关注的问题,这些问题的回答对于民航运输业市场化绩效的评价和继续深化改革具有重要的现实意义。
文章总共包括八部分。第一部分提出文章的研究背景和研究意义,并以国内外研究的梳理和评价为基础,提出文章的研究框架和研究内容,并交代研究方法、技术路线和创新点。第二部分介绍文章所涉及的概念和相关理论,包括四个方面的内容：一是民航运输业概述；二是自然垄断产业的规制理论；三是民航运输业的自然垄断、竞争与政府规制；四是民航运输业的市场化改革。第三部分以民航业市场化改革历程为基础,从监管体制改革、竞争引入、产权重组以及公司治理调整四个方面分析了民航运输业市场化改革的内容,并分别研究民航运输业市场结构和市场行为的变迁。第四部分以民航运输业市场化改革目标为导向,在民航运输业改革绩效评价体系的设计原则和设计方法的基础上,构建民航运输业改革绩效的评价体系。第五部分使用双重差分模型,以民航公司的微观数据为基础,对民航运输业基于机票价格的市场化改革绩效进行实证研究。第六部分使用双重差分模型,以民航公司的微观数据为基础,分别从总周转量、旅客运输量、货邮载运量和飞行里程四个方面对民航运输业基于服务总量的市场化改革绩效进行实证研究。第七部分使用双重差分模型,以民航公司的微观数据为基础,分别从资源配置效率(利润率)、技术进步效率(全要素生产率)和生产效率(燃油消耗、客座率和载运率)三个方面、五个指标对民航运输业基于市场绩效的市场化改革绩效进行实证研究。第八部分为研究结论与展望。
以上述研究为基础,文章得到如下几个研究结论,同时也构成了文章的创新点：
第一,民航运输业市场化改革分析的相关结论。中国民航运输业以监管体制改革、竞争引入和规范、产权重组以及公司治理调整等方面的内容为核心的市场化改革的目标在于：形成合理票价、增加民航供给和提高市场绩效。2002年的民航运输业市场化改革不仅造成了以市场集中度和进入壁垒为代表的市场结构的变迁,还导致了价格行为、企业组织调节行为、服务竞争以及新技术竞争等市场行为的变迁。这些市场结构和市场行为的变化无疑都会带来民航运输业市场化改革绩效的改变。
第二,民航运输业市场化改革绩效评价体系的构建。文章在航空公司的微观研究视角下,遵循民航运输业的市场化改革绩效评价体系的设计原则,以形成合理票价、增加民航供给、改善市场绩效的民航运输业市场化改革目标为导向,根据产业组织理论的产业绩效评价理论,从机票价格、服务总量和市场绩效三个维度构建了民航运输业市场化改革绩效评价体系。
第三,中国民航运输业市场化改革绩效的实证检验。其一,对民航运输业基于机票价格进行的双重差分检验表明,2002年的民航运输业市场化改革虽然使机票价格有所下降,但并没有带来机票价格的实质性下降。其二,对民航运输业基于服务总量进行的双重差分检验表明,2002年的民航运输业市场化改革使得总周转量、旅客运输量、货邮载运量和飞行里程都得到了显著的提高,并具有一到三年的政策时效性。这说明此次改革确实在很大程度上提高了民航运输业的服务总量。其三,对民航运输业基于市场绩效的市场化改革绩效进行的双重差分检验表明,民航运输业市场化改革提高了资源配置效率；技术进步效率方面的改革绩效非常显著,燃油消耗比较显著地下降了,但改革并没有带来客座率、载运率的显著的大幅提高。
文章以改革绩效的检验和判断为研究对象,对民航运输业的改革绩效进行了实证研究,从而判断民航运输业市场化改革是否实现了预期效果,超过或背离改革目标的程度如何,这不但可以为全面评价中国民航运输业市场化改革绩效提供一定的实证依据,还可为其他自然垄断产业改革绩效的评价提供新观念和新方法的借鉴。
Chinese civil aviation transportation industry has become an important part of the whole transportation system now. Civil aviation transportation industry plays a more and more important role in the macro economic operation with its obvious higher speed than GDP growth. But Chinese civil aviation transportation industry still belongs to the sunrise industry. Although the development speed of Chinese civil aviation transportation industry is faster, but it haven't come into the stationary phase. There still is the very big development space and potential in the next few years. The growth of Chinese civil aviation transportation industry mainly comes from the expanded reproduction of the original system. Today, there is nearly ten years after the last reform. How about the current market structure, market behavior and market performance. What about the role of the reform to civil aviation transportation industry and civil aviation companies. What about the effect of market reform in civil aviation transportation industry. The answer to these questions is the key of the deepen reform in Chinese civil aviation transportation industry. From the practice aspect, the understanding and view of civil aviation transportation industry aroused wide concern of academics and policy aspect, along with gradually advance of market reform on the civil aviation transportation industry. The judgment of reform performance has become the key link of correct evaluation on the reform performance in civil aviation transportation industry. It relates directly to the path choice of the deepen reform. Whether market reform on civil aviation transportation industry achieved the expected effect, how about the degree of more or less the reform target, they are the problems this article focuses on. The answer of these questions has important practical significance to market performance evaluation and deepen reform in the civil aviation transportation industry.
The paper is divided into eight parts. The research background, research significance, research status at home and abroad, research framework and research content, research methods, technical route and innovation points are pointed out in the first part. The second part introduces the concepts and theories involved. It includes four aspects:one is the overview of civil aviation transportation industry; the second is the regulation theory in natural monopoly industry; the third is the natural monopoly, competition and government regulation in civil aviation transportation industry; the fourth is market reform in civil aviation transportation industry. In the third part, on the base of reform process in civil aviation industry, civil aviation transportation market reform can be divided into the regulatory system reform, the competition introduction and the property reorganization. And then market structure and market behavior changes of civil aviation transportation industry have been studied. In the fourth part, according to the market reform goal of civil aviation transportation industry, reform performance evaluation system of the civil aviation transportation has been constructed on the basis of the design principles and design method of civil aviation transportation reform performance evaluation system. In the fifth part, I use Difference-in-differences Estimation to have an empirical research on market reform performance of ticket price in civil aviation transportation industry, according to the micro data of the civil aviation companies. In the sixth part, I use Difference-in-differences Estimation to have an empirical research on market reform performance of supply capacity, including total turnover volume, passenger turnover, goods load and flight mileage, in civil aviation transportation industry, according to the micro data of the civil aviation companies. In the seventh part, I use Difference-in-differences Estimation to have an empirical research on market reform performance of market performance, including allocation efficiency (rate of profit), technical progress efficiency (total factor productivity) and production efficiency (fuel consumption, passenger load factor and overall load factor), in civil aviation transportation industry, according to the micro data of the civil aviation companies. The eighth part is the research conclusion and prospect.
In summary, we draw three conclusions, which also constitute the contributions of this paper.
Firstly, the relevant conclusion of the analysis on market reform in civil aviation transportation industry. Civil aviation transportation market reform can be divided into the regulatory system reform, the competition introduction and the property reorganization. And its reform aim is increasing civil aviation supply, forming a reasonable ticket price and improving the market performance. The civil aviation transportation market reform in2002not only caused the changes of market structure including market concentration and barriers to entry, but also led to the change of market behavior including price behavior, enterprise organization adjustment behavior, service competition and new technology competition. The change of market structure and market behavior will bring change of market reform performance in civil aviation transportation industry, undoubtedly.
Secondly, the construction of market reform performance evaluation system of civil aviation transportation industry. Based on the airline's microscopic research angle and the industry performance evaluation theory of the industrial organization theory, following the design principle of the market reform performance evaluation system in civil aviation transportation, according to the market reform goal of civil aviation transportation industry including increasing the civil aviation supply, forming a reasonable price and improving the market performance, we can construct market reform performance evaluation system of civil aviation transportation industry from three dimensions as the ticket price, service amount and the market performance.
Thirdly, the empirical research on market reform performance in Chinese civil aviation transportation industry. First of all, the empirical research of Difference-in-differences Estimation on market reform performance of ticket price shows that the market reform of2002in civil aviation transportation industry although makes ticket price dropped, but don't bring the substantial ticket price decline. Then,the empirical research of Difference-in-differences Estimation on market reform performance of supply capacity shows that the market reform of2002in civil aviation transportation industry makes the total turnover volume, passenger turnover, goods load and flight mileage had been improved significantly, and has policy timeliness of one to three years. It shows that this reform has improved the supply capacity of civil aviation transportation industry indeed. At last, the empirical research of Difference-in-differences Estimation on market reform performance of market performance shows that the market reform of2002in civil aviation transportation industry improves the allocation efficiency of resources and technical progress efficiency remarkably. The fuel consumption is significantly decreased. But passenger load factor and overall load factor is not increase significantly.
Based on the test and judgment of reform performance as the research object, the empirical research on market reform performance in Chinese civil aviation transportation industry has been conducted in this paper. The empirical research results have answered the question of whether market reform on civil aviation transportation industry achieved the expected effect and how about the degree of more or less the reform target. This not only can provide some empirical basis for the comprehensive evaluation of Chinese civil aviation transportation market reform performance, but also can provide new idea and new method for other natural monopoly industry reform performance evaluation.
文章总共包括八部分。第一部分提出文章的研究背景和研究意义,并以国内外研究的梳理和评价为基础,提出文章的研究框架和研究内容,并交代研究方法、技术路线和创新点。第二部分介绍文章所涉及的概念和相关理论,包括四个方面的内容：一是民航运输业概述；二是自然垄断产业的规制理论；三是民航运输业的自然垄断、竞争与政府规制；四是民航运输业的市场化改革。第三部分以民航业市场化改革历程为基础,从监管体制改革、竞争引入、产权重组以及公司治理调整四个方面分析了民航运输业市场化改革的内容,并分别研究民航运输业市场结构和市场行为的变迁。第四部分以民航运输业市场化改革目标为导向,在民航运输业改革绩效评价体系的设计原则和设计方法的基础上,构建民航运输业改革绩效的评价体系。第五部分使用双重差分模型,以民航公司的微观数据为基础,对民航运输业基于机票价格的市场化改革绩效进行实证研究。第六部分使用双重差分模型,以民航公司的微观数据为基础,分别从总周转量、旅客运输量、货邮载运量和飞行里程四个方面对民航运输业基于服务总量的市场化改革绩效进行实证研究。第七部分使用双重差分模型,以民航公司的微观数据为基础,分别从资源配置效率(利润率)、技术进步效率(全要素生产率)和生产效率(燃油消耗、客座率和载运率)三个方面、五个指标对民航运输业基于市场绩效的市场化改革绩效进行实证研究。第八部分为研究结论与展望。
以上述研究为基础,文章得到如下几个研究结论,同时也构成了文章的创新点：
第一,民航运输业市场化改革分析的相关结论。中国民航运输业以监管体制改革、竞争引入和规范、产权重组以及公司治理调整等方面的内容为核心的市场化改革的目标在于：形成合理票价、增加民航供给和提高市场绩效。2002年的民航运输业市场化改革不仅造成了以市场集中度和进入壁垒为代表的市场结构的变迁,还导致了价格行为、企业组织调节行为、服务竞争以及新技术竞争等市场行为的变迁。这些市场结构和市场行为的变化无疑都会带来民航运输业市场化改革绩效的改变。
第二,民航运输业市场化改革绩效评价体系的构建。文章在航空公司的微观研究视角下,遵循民航运输业的市场化改革绩效评价体系的设计原则,以形成合理票价、增加民航供给、改善市场绩效的民航运输业市场化改革目标为导向,根据产业组织理论的产业绩效评价理论,从机票价格、服务总量和市场绩效三个维度构建了民航运输业市场化改革绩效评价体系。
第三,中国民航运输业市场化改革绩效的实证检验。其一,对民航运输业基于机票价格进行的双重差分检验表明,2002年的民航运输业市场化改革虽然使机票价格有所下降,但并没有带来机票价格的实质性下降。其二,对民航运输业基于服务总量进行的双重差分检验表明,2002年的民航运输业市场化改革使得总周转量、旅客运输量、货邮载运量和飞行里程都得到了显著的提高,并具有一到三年的政策时效性。这说明此次改革确实在很大程度上提高了民航运输业的服务总量。其三,对民航运输业基于市场绩效的市场化改革绩效进行的双重差分检验表明,民航运输业市场化改革提高了资源配置效率；技术进步效率方面的改革绩效非常显著,燃油消耗比较显著地下降了,但改革并没有带来客座率、载运率的显著的大幅提高。
文章以改革绩效的检验和判断为研究对象,对民航运输业的改革绩效进行了实证研究,从而判断民航运输业市场化改革是否实现了预期效果,超过或背离改革目标的程度如何,这不但可以为全面评价中国民航运输业市场化改革绩效提供一定的实证依据,还可为其他自然垄断产业改革绩效的评价提供新观念和新方法的借鉴。
Chinese civil aviation transportation industry has become an important part of the whole transportation system now. Civil aviation transportation industry plays a more and more important role in the macro economic operation with its obvious higher speed than GDP growth. But Chinese civil aviation transportation industry still belongs to the sunrise industry. Although the development speed of Chinese civil aviation transportation industry is faster, but it haven't come into the stationary phase. There still is the very big development space and potential in the next few years. The growth of Chinese civil aviation transportation industry mainly comes from the expanded reproduction of the original system. Today, there is nearly ten years after the last reform. How about the current market structure, market behavior and market performance. What about the role of the reform to civil aviation transportation industry and civil aviation companies. What about the effect of market reform in civil aviation transportation industry. The answer to these questions is the key of the deepen reform in Chinese civil aviation transportation industry. From the practice aspect, the understanding and view of civil aviation transportation industry aroused wide concern of academics and policy aspect, along with gradually advance of market reform on the civil aviation transportation industry. The judgment of reform performance has become the key link of correct evaluation on the reform performance in civil aviation transportation industry. It relates directly to the path choice of the deepen reform. Whether market reform on civil aviation transportation industry achieved the expected effect, how about the degree of more or less the reform target, they are the problems this article focuses on. The answer of these questions has important practical significance to market performance evaluation and deepen reform in the civil aviation transportation industry.
The paper is divided into eight parts. The research background, research significance, research status at home and abroad, research framework and research content, research methods, technical route and innovation points are pointed out in the first part. The second part introduces the concepts and theories involved. It includes four aspects:one is the overview of civil aviation transportation industry; the second is the regulation theory in natural monopoly industry; the third is the natural monopoly, competition and government regulation in civil aviation transportation industry; the fourth is market reform in civil aviation transportation industry. In the third part, on the base of reform process in civil aviation industry, civil aviation transportation market reform can be divided into the regulatory system reform, the competition introduction and the property reorganization. And then market structure and market behavior changes of civil aviation transportation industry have been studied. In the fourth part, according to the market reform goal of civil aviation transportation industry, reform performance evaluation system of the civil aviation transportation has been constructed on the basis of the design principles and design method of civil aviation transportation reform performance evaluation system. In the fifth part, I use Difference-in-differences Estimation to have an empirical research on market reform performance of ticket price in civil aviation transportation industry, according to the micro data of the civil aviation companies. In the sixth part, I use Difference-in-differences Estimation to have an empirical research on market reform performance of supply capacity, including total turnover volume, passenger turnover, goods load and flight mileage, in civil aviation transportation industry, according to the micro data of the civil aviation companies. In the seventh part, I use Difference-in-differences Estimation to have an empirical research on market reform performance of market performance, including allocation efficiency (rate of profit), technical progress efficiency (total factor productivity) and production efficiency (fuel consumption, passenger load factor and overall load factor), in civil aviation transportation industry, according to the micro data of the civil aviation companies. The eighth part is the research conclusion and prospect.
In summary, we draw three conclusions, which also constitute the contributions of this paper.
Firstly, the relevant conclusion of the analysis on market reform in civil aviation transportation industry. Civil aviation transportation market reform can be divided into the regulatory system reform, the competition introduction and the property reorganization. And its reform aim is increasing civil aviation supply, forming a reasonable ticket price and improving the market performance. The civil aviation transportation market reform in2002not only caused the changes of market structure including market concentration and barriers to entry, but also led to the change of market behavior including price behavior, enterprise organization adjustment behavior, service competition and new technology competition. The change of market structure and market behavior will bring change of market reform performance in civil aviation transportation industry, undoubtedly.
Secondly, the construction of market reform performance evaluation system of civil aviation transportation industry. Based on the airline's microscopic research angle and the industry performance evaluation theory of the industrial organization theory, following the design principle of the market reform performance evaluation system in civil aviation transportation, according to the market reform goal of civil aviation transportation industry including increasing the civil aviation supply, forming a reasonable price and improving the market performance, we can construct market reform performance evaluation system of civil aviation transportation industry from three dimensions as the ticket price, service amount and the market performance.
Thirdly, the empirical research on market reform performance in Chinese civil aviation transportation industry. First of all, the empirical research of Difference-in-differences Estimation on market reform performance of ticket price shows that the market reform of2002in civil aviation transportation industry although makes ticket price dropped, but don't bring the substantial ticket price decline. Then,the empirical research of Difference-in-differences Estimation on market reform performance of supply capacity shows that the market reform of2002in civil aviation transportation industry makes the total turnover volume, passenger turnover, goods load and flight mileage had been improved significantly, and has policy timeliness of one to three years. It shows that this reform has improved the supply capacity of civil aviation transportation industry indeed. At last, the empirical research of Difference-in-differences Estimation on market reform performance of market performance shows that the market reform of2002in civil aviation transportation industry improves the allocation efficiency of resources and technical progress efficiency remarkably. The fuel consumption is significantly decreased. But passenger load factor and overall load factor is not increase significantly.
Based on the test and judgment of reform performance as the research object, the empirical research on market reform performance in Chinese civil aviation transportation industry has been conducted in this paper. The empirical research results have answered the question of whether market reform on civil aviation transportation industry achieved the expected effect and how about the degree of more or less the reform target. This not only can provide some empirical basis for the comprehensive evaluation of Chinese civil aviation transportation market reform performance, but also can provide new idea and new method for other natural monopoly industry reform performance evaluation.
引文
①周慧英,鲁玥和王晓晨.民航产业需求分析[J].商场现代化,2007(3)：356.
①约翰·伊特韦尔等.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1996.
②植草益.微观规制经济学[M].朱绍文译.北京：中国发展出版社,1992：1.2.
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