中国欠发达地区温室气体排放特征与对策分析
|
摘要
温室气体减排是重要的环境与发展问题,对发展中国家而言最重要的是在协调减缓气候变化与保持社会经济持续发展之间的巨大矛盾。发展中国家如此,发展中国家中的欠发达地区更是如此。本文在回顾全球变化科学的产生与发展历程、气候变化和温室气体排放科学事实的基础上,评估、分析了以甘肃省为案例的欠发达地区的温室气体排放状况,对未来温室气体的排放情景进行了预测,并提出了欠发达地区在实现温室气体减排的同时加快社会经济发展的对策建议措施。
论文首先回顾了气候变化问题在科学、政治和经济等方面的历史渊源和复杂关联,分析介绍了全球温室气体排放状况、温室气体减排义务分配原则及其争议、主要的国际减排行动及其概况,指出以温室气体减排和气候变化适应为重点的减缓与适应综合行动是人类应对气候变化挑战的最重要选择。
进而,论文选取、借鉴政府间气候变化专家委员会(IPCC)、国际能源署(IEA)及其他研究组织和学者的温室气体排放评估与情景分析方法,对甘肃省及其对比区域的温室气体排放量进行了评估,并发展、确定了3E情景分析框架,从经济目标(E1)、能效目标(E2)和环境目标(E3)的角度分析欠发达地区未来的高中低排放情景。论文首先将国际温室气体评估和情景分析进行针对甘肃省的降尺度研究,然后再将甘肃省温室气体排放特征、气候变化压力、温室气体排放和经济发展需求进行面向我国欠发达地区的升尺度研究。
评估结果显示,甘肃省2005年的总温室气体排放量为79897.96 Kt CO_2,其中,来自石油的排放是11401.22 Kt CO_2,煤炭的排放是66657.03 Kt CO_2,天然气的排放是1839.72 Kt CO_2。通过对甘肃省温室气体排放进行纵横向的比较分析,发现甘肃省温室气体排放具有以下特点:①煤炭消费对甘肃省温室气体排放贡献巨大:煤炭产生的排放量占甘肃省排放总量的83.43%;②单位GDP排放量较高:2005年甘肃省单位GDP温室气体排放量为4.13t/万元人民币,分别是上海的2.51倍和全国的1.66倍;③人均排放量较低:2005年甘肃省人均排放量为3.08 tCO_2/人,分别是是全国的88.52%、上海的36.28%和世界的72.99%;④温室气体排放总体在向好的方向发展:2003～2005年间温室气体排放增长率仅为5.96%,低于GDP增长水平,单位GDP的排放量不断降低,年均降幅高达13.00%。
通过对甘肃省的3E(经济、能效和环境)情景分析,构建了甘肃省2050年前的温室气体排放情景:①基于经济发展目标的E1排放情景中,甘肃省温室气体排
放速度与快速的经济增长情景保持密切联系,温室气体排放量持续快速增长,在2020年和2050年甘肃省温室气体排放量将达到2005年的2.83和6.74倍,甘肃省也将因此面临巨大的生态、环境、资源和政治风险。②基于提高能效目标的E2排放情景通过持续降低单位GDP排放,逐步实现高能效、低能耗、低排放的发展模式,到2020年和2050年温室气体排放量将分别是2005年的1.58倍和3.14倍。③基于环境目标的E3排放情景,以保证大气CO_2浓度稳定在550ppm以下为目标,逐步降低温室气体排放总量,在2020年温室气体排放量达到峰值,比2005年排放量增长7.71%,在2050年温室气体排放总量降至2005年的75%。综合三个情景,甘肃省在2020年排放量大约在86057.87～226069.50 KtCO_2之间,在2050年温室气体排放量大约在59923.47～538448.35 KtCO_2之间。
基于对甘肃省的评估和分析,论文提出欠发达地区参与温室气体减排工作的对策措施,包括:①将减排工作与产业转型相结合,稳步提升经济发展的竞争力:利用温室气体排放环境相对宽松的时期,逐步实现经济转型,提高应对未来低排放发展模式的应对能力。②将减排工作与生态重建相结合,恢复良好的自然和人居环境:通过生态重建等工作实现生物固碳,并将其纳入减排框架,使欠发达地区在一定时期内既保持经济发展的活力,又改善当地的自然和人居环境,提高欠发达地区的区域可持续发展能力。③将减排工作与扶持政策相结合,实现社会/经济环境快速改善:欠发达地区应争取、利用国家的政策扶持和资金投入,在实施节能减排的同时,实现重大的技术升级、产业转型、社会保障等方面的社会经济目标。④将减排工作与清洁能源开发相结合,催生新的经济生长点:要在兼顾环境保护的前提下,开发欠发达地区风能、太阳能、水能等可再生资源。同时在一些适宜的欠发达地区探索发展生物质能、氢能和核能的可能性。输出清洁能源也可能是一些欠发达地区重要的转型举措。⑤将减排工作与综合措施相结合,完善社会保障体系和发展模式:加强知识普及,增强对气候变化的预防、应对和恢复能力,构建可以积极防御气候变化的社会保障体系和低排放的、基于和谐发展理念的发展模式。
Greenhouse gas emission reduction is an important environmental and development issue.As for the developing countries,the most significant thing is to coordinate the huge contradictions between mitigating climate change and maintaining the sustainable socio-economic development.So it is for the less-developed regions in developing countries.On the basis of reviewing the emergence and development of global change science and the scientific facts about climate change and GHG emissions,the paper assessed and analyzed the GHG emission status in less-developed region—taking Gansu Province as an example,forecasted the GHG emission scenarios in the future,and put foreword some recommendations and measures for less-developed regions to achieve GHG emission reduction and expedite socio-economic development.
Firstly,the paper reviewed the historical origins and complex relationships between the scientific,political and economic aspects of climate change,introduced the status of global GHG emissions,analyzed the allocation principles for GHG emission reduction obligations and its controversies,described the main international emission reduction actions,and pointed out that the most important choice for combating the climate change challenge is both mitigation and adaptation.
Secondly,consulting the methods of GHG emission assessment and scenario analysis offered by some scholars and research organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA),the paper assessed the GHG emissions of Gansu Province and its counterparts, developed and addressed a framework of 3E scenario,analyzed the less-developed regions'future various emission scenarios in the angles of economic goals(E1),energy efficiency goals(E2) and environmental goals(E3).The paper downscaled the international GHG assessment and scenario analysis in the local scale of Gansu Province as the first step,and then upscaled the GHG emission characteristics,pressures and the requirements for economy development of Gansu Province to the regional scale of China's less-developed regions.
The result show that the total GHG emission in Gansu Province in 2005 was 79.90 Mt CO_2,among which the emissions from oil,coal,and natural gas were 11.40 Mt CO_2, 66.66 Mt CO_2,and 1.84 Mt CO_2,respectively.By the vertically and horizontally comparative analysis of the GHG emissions in Gansu Province,it was found that the GHG emission of Gansu Province had the following characteristics:
1) GHG emission contribution from coal consumptions was great with the level of 83.43 percent of Gansu's total GHG emissions;
2) per GDP emission was higher,the per GDP emission of Gansu Province in 2005 was 413 t CO_2 per million Yuan of GDP,which was 2.51 times of Shanghai and 1.66 times of the national average level,respectively;
3) per capita emission was low,the per capita emission of Gansu Province in 2005 was 3.08 t CO_2,which was 88.52 percent of that of China,36.28 percent of that of Shanghai and 72.99 percent of that of the world,respectively:
4) the overall situation of GHG emission in Gansu Province has improved,between 2003 and 2005 the growth rate of GHG emissions was only 5.96 percent,lower than that of GDP;and the per GDP emissions are continuing to decline,with the annual average decreasing rate up to 13 percent.
By the 3E(economic,energy efficiency,and environmental) scenario analysis of Gansu Province,the paper estimated the GHG emission scenarios of Gansu Province up to 2050.
1) In the E1 emission scenario based on the economic development objectives,the growth rate of GHG emission in Gansu Province is closely related with that of economy. GHG emissions continue to increase,the GHG emission in 2020 will be 2.83 times of that in 2005,and the GHG emission in 2050 will be 6.74 times of that in 2005.Therefore, Gansu Province will also face enormous risks from ecology,environment,resources and politics.
2) In the E2 emission scenario based on the energy efficiency goals,Gansu Province could gradually realize the development of high energy efficiency,low energy consumption,and low emission by decreasing steadily the per GDP emissions.The GHG emission in 2020 will be 1.58 times of that in 2005,and the GHG emission in 2050 will be 3.14 times of that in 2005.
3) In the E3 emission scenario based on the environmental objectives to stabilize the atmospheric CO_2 concentration below 550 ppm,Gansu Province should gradually reduce GHG emission,making sure that by 2020 GHG emission reaches its peak,which increases by 7.71 percent compared with that in 2005.By 2050 GHG emission will decline to 75 percent of that in 2005.
Combining the three scenarios,the GHG emission of Gansu Province in 2020 will be approximately between 86.06 and 226.07 Mt CO_2,and by 2050 it will be about between 59.92 and 538.45 Mt CO_2.
Based on the assessment and analysis of GHG emissions in Gansu Province,the paper proposed the measures for less-developed regions to keep the social-economy development and reduce the GHG emission,which included:
1) combining emission reduction with industrial transformation to promote the competitiveness of economic development steadily,namely,using the relatively loose period of GHG emission to realize the economic transition and to improve the coping capacity of low carbon development patterns in the future.
2) combining emission reduction with ecological reconstruction to preserve the good environment for nature and human settlement,namely,through some efforts such as ecological reconstruction to realize biological carbon sequestration and integrate them into the framework of emission reduction,in order that the less-developed regions could maintain the economic development vitality as well as improve the environment for nature and human settlement,increasing the capability for regional sustainable development in the less-developed regions.
3) combining emission reduction with support policy so as to achieve the rapidly improvement of socio-economic environment,that is obtaining and utilizing national support policies and investments to implement energy conservation and pollution reduction,at the same time,to achieve the socio-economic objectives such as significant technology upgrades,industrial transformation,social security and so on.
4) combining emission reduction with the clean energy development in order to expedite the new growth point of economy,namely,on the premise of consideration to environmental protection,to develop renewable resources such as wind,solar, hydropower.In the meanwhile,we should explore the possibilities for the development of biomass energy,hydrogen energy and nuclear energy in some appropriate less-developed regions.Clean energy output may also be the important transformation initiatives for some less-developed regions.
5) combining emission reduction with comprehensive measures to promote the social security system and development patterns,namely,strengthening the knowledge popularization and capabilities of prevention,adaptation and resilience to climate change, constructing the social security system that could defend climate change positively,and low carbon emission development patterns based on the concept of harmonious development.
论文首先回顾了气候变化问题在科学、政治和经济等方面的历史渊源和复杂关联,分析介绍了全球温室气体排放状况、温室气体减排义务分配原则及其争议、主要的国际减排行动及其概况,指出以温室气体减排和气候变化适应为重点的减缓与适应综合行动是人类应对气候变化挑战的最重要选择。
进而,论文选取、借鉴政府间气候变化专家委员会(IPCC)、国际能源署(IEA)及其他研究组织和学者的温室气体排放评估与情景分析方法,对甘肃省及其对比区域的温室气体排放量进行了评估,并发展、确定了3E情景分析框架,从经济目标(E1)、能效目标(E2)和环境目标(E3)的角度分析欠发达地区未来的高中低排放情景。论文首先将国际温室气体评估和情景分析进行针对甘肃省的降尺度研究,然后再将甘肃省温室气体排放特征、气候变化压力、温室气体排放和经济发展需求进行面向我国欠发达地区的升尺度研究。
评估结果显示,甘肃省2005年的总温室气体排放量为79897.96 Kt CO_2,其中,来自石油的排放是11401.22 Kt CO_2,煤炭的排放是66657.03 Kt CO_2,天然气的排放是1839.72 Kt CO_2。通过对甘肃省温室气体排放进行纵横向的比较分析,发现甘肃省温室气体排放具有以下特点:①煤炭消费对甘肃省温室气体排放贡献巨大:煤炭产生的排放量占甘肃省排放总量的83.43%;②单位GDP排放量较高:2005年甘肃省单位GDP温室气体排放量为4.13t/万元人民币,分别是上海的2.51倍和全国的1.66倍;③人均排放量较低:2005年甘肃省人均排放量为3.08 tCO_2/人,分别是是全国的88.52%、上海的36.28%和世界的72.99%;④温室气体排放总体在向好的方向发展:2003～2005年间温室气体排放增长率仅为5.96%,低于GDP增长水平,单位GDP的排放量不断降低,年均降幅高达13.00%。
通过对甘肃省的3E(经济、能效和环境)情景分析,构建了甘肃省2050年前的温室气体排放情景:①基于经济发展目标的E1排放情景中,甘肃省温室气体排
放速度与快速的经济增长情景保持密切联系,温室气体排放量持续快速增长,在2020年和2050年甘肃省温室气体排放量将达到2005年的2.83和6.74倍,甘肃省也将因此面临巨大的生态、环境、资源和政治风险。②基于提高能效目标的E2排放情景通过持续降低单位GDP排放,逐步实现高能效、低能耗、低排放的发展模式,到2020年和2050年温室气体排放量将分别是2005年的1.58倍和3.14倍。③基于环境目标的E3排放情景,以保证大气CO_2浓度稳定在550ppm以下为目标,逐步降低温室气体排放总量,在2020年温室气体排放量达到峰值,比2005年排放量增长7.71%,在2050年温室气体排放总量降至2005年的75%。综合三个情景,甘肃省在2020年排放量大约在86057.87～226069.50 KtCO_2之间,在2050年温室气体排放量大约在59923.47～538448.35 KtCO_2之间。
基于对甘肃省的评估和分析,论文提出欠发达地区参与温室气体减排工作的对策措施,包括:①将减排工作与产业转型相结合,稳步提升经济发展的竞争力:利用温室气体排放环境相对宽松的时期,逐步实现经济转型,提高应对未来低排放发展模式的应对能力。②将减排工作与生态重建相结合,恢复良好的自然和人居环境:通过生态重建等工作实现生物固碳,并将其纳入减排框架,使欠发达地区在一定时期内既保持经济发展的活力,又改善当地的自然和人居环境,提高欠发达地区的区域可持续发展能力。③将减排工作与扶持政策相结合,实现社会/经济环境快速改善:欠发达地区应争取、利用国家的政策扶持和资金投入,在实施节能减排的同时,实现重大的技术升级、产业转型、社会保障等方面的社会经济目标。④将减排工作与清洁能源开发相结合,催生新的经济生长点:要在兼顾环境保护的前提下,开发欠发达地区风能、太阳能、水能等可再生资源。同时在一些适宜的欠发达地区探索发展生物质能、氢能和核能的可能性。输出清洁能源也可能是一些欠发达地区重要的转型举措。⑤将减排工作与综合措施相结合,完善社会保障体系和发展模式:加强知识普及,增强对气候变化的预防、应对和恢复能力,构建可以积极防御气候变化的社会保障体系和低排放的、基于和谐发展理念的发展模式。
Greenhouse gas emission reduction is an important environmental and development issue.As for the developing countries,the most significant thing is to coordinate the huge contradictions between mitigating climate change and maintaining the sustainable socio-economic development.So it is for the less-developed regions in developing countries.On the basis of reviewing the emergence and development of global change science and the scientific facts about climate change and GHG emissions,the paper assessed and analyzed the GHG emission status in less-developed region—taking Gansu Province as an example,forecasted the GHG emission scenarios in the future,and put foreword some recommendations and measures for less-developed regions to achieve GHG emission reduction and expedite socio-economic development.
Firstly,the paper reviewed the historical origins and complex relationships between the scientific,political and economic aspects of climate change,introduced the status of global GHG emissions,analyzed the allocation principles for GHG emission reduction obligations and its controversies,described the main international emission reduction actions,and pointed out that the most important choice for combating the climate change challenge is both mitigation and adaptation.
Secondly,consulting the methods of GHG emission assessment and scenario analysis offered by some scholars and research organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA),the paper assessed the GHG emissions of Gansu Province and its counterparts, developed and addressed a framework of 3E scenario,analyzed the less-developed regions'future various emission scenarios in the angles of economic goals(E1),energy efficiency goals(E2) and environmental goals(E3).The paper downscaled the international GHG assessment and scenario analysis in the local scale of Gansu Province as the first step,and then upscaled the GHG emission characteristics,pressures and the requirements for economy development of Gansu Province to the regional scale of China's less-developed regions.
The result show that the total GHG emission in Gansu Province in 2005 was 79.90 Mt CO_2,among which the emissions from oil,coal,and natural gas were 11.40 Mt CO_2, 66.66 Mt CO_2,and 1.84 Mt CO_2,respectively.By the vertically and horizontally comparative analysis of the GHG emissions in Gansu Province,it was found that the GHG emission of Gansu Province had the following characteristics:
1) GHG emission contribution from coal consumptions was great with the level of 83.43 percent of Gansu's total GHG emissions;
2) per GDP emission was higher,the per GDP emission of Gansu Province in 2005 was 413 t CO_2 per million Yuan of GDP,which was 2.51 times of Shanghai and 1.66 times of the national average level,respectively;
3) per capita emission was low,the per capita emission of Gansu Province in 2005 was 3.08 t CO_2,which was 88.52 percent of that of China,36.28 percent of that of Shanghai and 72.99 percent of that of the world,respectively:
4) the overall situation of GHG emission in Gansu Province has improved,between 2003 and 2005 the growth rate of GHG emissions was only 5.96 percent,lower than that of GDP;and the per GDP emissions are continuing to decline,with the annual average decreasing rate up to 13 percent.
By the 3E(economic,energy efficiency,and environmental) scenario analysis of Gansu Province,the paper estimated the GHG emission scenarios of Gansu Province up to 2050.
1) In the E1 emission scenario based on the economic development objectives,the growth rate of GHG emission in Gansu Province is closely related with that of economy. GHG emissions continue to increase,the GHG emission in 2020 will be 2.83 times of that in 2005,and the GHG emission in 2050 will be 6.74 times of that in 2005.Therefore, Gansu Province will also face enormous risks from ecology,environment,resources and politics.
2) In the E2 emission scenario based on the energy efficiency goals,Gansu Province could gradually realize the development of high energy efficiency,low energy consumption,and low emission by decreasing steadily the per GDP emissions.The GHG emission in 2020 will be 1.58 times of that in 2005,and the GHG emission in 2050 will be 3.14 times of that in 2005.
3) In the E3 emission scenario based on the environmental objectives to stabilize the atmospheric CO_2 concentration below 550 ppm,Gansu Province should gradually reduce GHG emission,making sure that by 2020 GHG emission reaches its peak,which increases by 7.71 percent compared with that in 2005.By 2050 GHG emission will decline to 75 percent of that in 2005.
Combining the three scenarios,the GHG emission of Gansu Province in 2020 will be approximately between 86.06 and 226.07 Mt CO_2,and by 2050 it will be about between 59.92 and 538.45 Mt CO_2.
Based on the assessment and analysis of GHG emissions in Gansu Province,the paper proposed the measures for less-developed regions to keep the social-economy development and reduce the GHG emission,which included:
1) combining emission reduction with industrial transformation to promote the competitiveness of economic development steadily,namely,using the relatively loose period of GHG emission to realize the economic transition and to improve the coping capacity of low carbon development patterns in the future.
2) combining emission reduction with ecological reconstruction to preserve the good environment for nature and human settlement,namely,through some efforts such as ecological reconstruction to realize biological carbon sequestration and integrate them into the framework of emission reduction,in order that the less-developed regions could maintain the economic development vitality as well as improve the environment for nature and human settlement,increasing the capability for regional sustainable development in the less-developed regions.
3) combining emission reduction with support policy so as to achieve the rapidly improvement of socio-economic environment,that is obtaining and utilizing national support policies and investments to implement energy conservation and pollution reduction,at the same time,to achieve the socio-economic objectives such as significant technology upgrades,industrial transformation,social security and so on.
4) combining emission reduction with the clean energy development in order to expedite the new growth point of economy,namely,on the premise of consideration to environmental protection,to develop renewable resources such as wind,solar, hydropower.In the meanwhile,we should explore the possibilities for the development of biomass energy,hydrogen energy and nuclear energy in some appropriate less-developed regions.Clean energy output may also be the important transformation initiatives for some less-developed regions.
5) combining emission reduction with comprehensive measures to promote the social security system and development patterns,namely,strengthening the knowledge popularization and capabilities of prevention,adaptation and resilience to climate change, constructing the social security system that could defend climate change positively,and low carbon emission development patterns based on the concept of harmonious development.
引文
Abrahamson D E.The Challenge of Global Warming.Island Press, Washington D C.1989.
Ahmad N.A Framework For Estimating Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods.OECD, Paris.2003.
Andres, R.J., D.J.Fielding, G.Marland, et al.Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use, 1751-1950.Tellus, 1999.51B: 759-65.
Arrhenius E, Waltz T W.The Greenhouse Effevt: Implications for Economic Development.The World Bank, Washington D C.1990.
Ausubel J, Biswas A K, eds.Climate Constraints and Human activities.Pergamon Press, Oxford.1980.
Berry E W.Tree Ancestors: a Glimpse into the Past.Illus, Baltimore.1923.
Boden, T.A., G.Marland, and R.J.Andres.Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO_2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950-1992.ORNL/CDIAC-90, NDP-30/R6.Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S.Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.1995.
Bolin B, Degens E T, Kempe S, et al.eds.The Clobal Carbon Cycle.John Wiley & Sons, New York.1977.
Brooks C E P.Climate through the Age: a Study of the Climatic Factors and their Variations.Illus,London.1926.
CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center) .Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO_2 Emissions, http://cdiac.ornl.gov.2007.
Clark W C, ed.Carbon Dioxide Review.Clarendon Press,Oxford;Oxford University Press,New York.1982.
Clark W C, Holling C S.Sustainable development of the biosphere: Human activities and global change.In: Malone T F, Roederer, eds.Global Change.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK.1985.474-490.
Clark W C, Munn R E, eds.Sustainable Development of the Biosphere.Cambridge University Press/ⅡASA, Cambridge/Laxenburg.1986
Dachnowski A P.The correlation of time units and climatic changes in peat deposits of the United States and Europe.Natl.Acad.Sci.Proc.,1922,8(7):225-231.
Department of Agriculture, United States.Climate and Man, Yearbook of Agriculture.Washington D C: United States Government Printing Office.1941.
Di Castri F.Global crises and the environment.Study week on a modern approach to the protection of the environment.Vatican City,1989.7-39.
Eggelston S, Buendia L, Miwa K, et al.2006IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) for the IPCC.2006.
EIA (Energy Information Administration) .Energy-related emissions data & environmental analyses.http://ww w.eia.doe.gov/environment.html.2007.
ESSP.The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change.http://www.sciconf.igbp.kva.se/fr.html.July,2001.
Etemad, B., J.Luciani, P.Bairoch, and J.-C.Toutain.World Energy Production 1800-1985.Librarie DROZ, Switzerland.1991.
European Communities.EU Action against Climate Change: EU emissions trading—an open scheme promoting global innovation.2005.
Firor J.The Changing Atmosphere: A Global Challenge.Yale University Press, New Haven & London.1990.
Fleagle R G..Global Environmental Change:Interactions of Science, Policy, and Politics in the United States.London: Praeger Publishers.1994
Fleming J R.Historical Perspectives on Climate Change.Oxford University Press,US: 1998.
Friedman H.The science of global change: an overview.In: Malone T F, Roederer J G eds.Global Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.1985.
GCRIO.U.S.Global Change Research Act of 1990, Public Law 101-606(11/16/90) 104 Stat.3096-3104.http://www.gcrio.org/gcact1990.html 1990.
HM Treasury.Stern review: the economics of climate change.2006-12-20.http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/
Houghton J T, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums J J, Eds.Scientific Assessment of Climate change.-Report of Working Group I.Cambridge University Press, UK.1990.
Houghton J T, Meira Filho LG, Lim B,et,al.Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.IPCC/OECD/IEA.UK Meteorological Office, Bracknell.1996.
Houghton J.Global Warming: the Compete Briefing.3rd Edition.Cambridge.2004.
IEA.CO_2 Emissions from Fuel Combustions 1971-2005.www.iea.org.2007a.
EEA.World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, www.iea.org.2007b.
IGBP.The new and evolving IGBP.Global Change Newsletter,2002,No 50,1-3.
IHDP.Strategic Plan 2007-2015: Framing Worldwide Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change.http://www.ihdp.uni-bonn.de/Pdf_filesAVebStratPlan.pdf
IPCC.Climate Change 2001: Summary for Policymakers.Cambridge University Press.2001.
IPCC.Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.Summary for Policymakers.http://www.ipcc.ch.2007a.
IPCC.Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.Summary for Policymakers.http://www.ipcc.ch.2007b.
IPCC.Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.Summary for Policymakers.http://www.ipcc.ch.2007c.
IPCC.Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change.Cambridge University Press.1995.
IPCC.Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.1990.
IPCC.IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario :Summary for Policymakers.IPCC,2000.
Jaeger J, ed.Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change: A Summary of Discussions and Recommendations of the Workshops in Villach and Bellagio.WM0.1988.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).Global Change: Impacts on Habitability, a Scientific Basis for Assessment, a report by the Executive Committee of a workshop held at Woods Hole, Mass.,June 21-26,1982.
Korec R J,ed.Atmospheric Quality and Climate Change.Papers of the Second Carolina Geographical Symposium.1975.
Lamb H H.Climate, History and the Modern World.2~(nd) edition.Routledge, London and New York.1995.
Lamb H H.The Changing Climate.Methuen Co Ltd.1966.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.Energy and Climate Change.Lewis Publishers.1990.
Malone T F, Roederer J G, eds.Global Change.Proceedings of a Symposium Sponsored by ICSU,Ottawa,Canada, 25 Sept.,1984.ICSU Press.1984.
Marland G, and Rotty R M.Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels: A procedure for estimation and results for 1950-82.Tellus, 1984, 36(B):232-61.
Marsh G P.Man and nature or physical geography as modified by human action.Scribner,New York.1864
Meadows D H, Meadows D L, Randers J, et,al.The Limits to Growth.Universe Books, New York, USA.1972.
Mendonca B G, ed.Geopgysical Monitoring for Climate Change No.7, Ummary Report 1978.NOAA.1979.
Miller C A, Edwards P W.Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance.The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.2001.
Molina M J, Rowland F S.Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: chlorine atomic catalysed destruction of ozone.Nature, 1974, 249: 810-814.
NASA Advisory Council.Earth System Science: A Closest View.NASA, Washington D C.1988.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.China now no.1 in CO_2 emissions; USA in second position.http://www.mnp.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/moreinfo/ChinanownolinCO2emissionsUSAins econdposition.html.2007-06-19.
Noewine J.Climate and Human Ecology.Houston, Texas: D.Armstrong CO., Inc.,Publishers.1977.
NRC (National Research Council).Changing Climate: Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee.Washington DC: National Academy Press.1983.
NRC.Global Change in the Geosphere-Biosphere: Initial Priorities for an IGBP.Washington DC:National Academy Press.1986.
NRC.Research Strategies for the U.S.Global Change Research Program.National Academy Press, Washington D C,.1990
NRC.Toward an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program: A Study of Global Change.Washington DGNational Academy Press.1983.
NRC.Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.Washington DC:National Academy Press.1988.
Penck A.The shifting of the climate belts.Scot.Geog.Mag.(Illus), 1914,30:281-293.
Price M F.Global change:defining the Ill-defined.Environment, 1989,31(8):18-20,42,44.
Price M F.Humankind in the biosphere: The evolution of international interdisciplinary reseach.Global Environmental Change, 1990, l(Dec):3-13.
Rotmans J, Bert De Vries.Perspectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach.Cambridge University Press, 1997.
Ruddiman W,Thomson J.The case for human causes of increasedatmospheric CH4 over the last 5000 years.Quaternary Science Reviews, 2001, 20:1769-1777.
Ruddiman W.The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago.Climatic Change,2003,61:261-293
Stern P C, Young O R, Druckman D,eds.Glibal Environmental Change.National Academy Press,Washington D C.1992
The Norwegian Nobel Committee.The Nobel Peace Prize for 2007.http://nobelprize.org.2007-10-12.
Thomas W L ed.Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth.University of Chicago,Chichago,USA.1956.
Trenberth K E,ed.Climate System Modeling.Cambridge University Press.1989.
Turner IIB L, Kasperson R E, Meyer W B, et al.Two type of global environmental change.Global Environmental Change, 1990,1(4): 14-22
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Who Owns China's Carbon Emissions? Tyndall Briefing Note No.23, October 2007.
UNDP.Human Development Report 2007/2008.Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World.2007.
UNFCCC.Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data.http://unfccc.int/2860.php
UNFCCC.Kyoto Protocol, http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
United Nations.2003 Energy Statistics Yearbook.United Nations Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.Statistics Division,New York.2006.
US Census Bureau.IDB-Rank Countries by Population.http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/
US Energy Information Administration.International Energy Annual 2004.
Vernadsky V I.The Biosphere and the Noosphere.American Scientist,1945,33(1):1-12.
WCRP.WCRP Strategic Framework for 2005-2015:Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System.2005.
Weber C L,Matthews H S.Embodied environmental emissions in US international trade 1997-2004.Environ.Sci.Technol.,2007,41(14):4875-4881.
WMO.Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2006.2007.
WMO.Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:1991.WMO/UNEP.1992.
WMO-ICSU Joint Orgnizing Committee.GARP Publication Series,No.16.1975.
Worldwatch Institute.Powering China's Development:the Role of Renewable Energy.2007.http://www.worldwatch.org
WRI(World Resource Institute).CO2 emissions series data.www.wri.org.2007
Zwerver S,van Rompaey R S A R,Kok M T J,et al.eds.Climate Change Research Evaluation and Policy Implications.Elsevier.1995.
毕思文,许强.地球系统科学.科学出版社,2003a.
毕思文.地球系统科学导论.科学出版社,2003b.
巢清尘.地球系统科学、全球变化与可持续发展.气象科技,1999(4):9-13.
第一纺织网.石脑油行业2007年1-8月份经济运行分析.http://ctc.webtextiles.com/info/info_view.asp?infoid=258266
甘肃省统计局.2007年甘肃年鉴.统计出版社,2007.
甘肃省统计局.甘肃年鉴2006.中国统计出版社.2006.
甘肃省统计信息网.甘肃省社会发展水平综合评价报告.http://www.gs.stats.gov.cn/doc/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=507.2007.
葛全胜,张丕远,纽春燕.关于气候变化影响的研究.地球科学进展,1989,(3):41-46.
郭来喜,姜德华.中国贫困地区环境类型研究.地理研究,1995,14(2):17.
国家发展改革委员会.中国应对气候变化国家方案.http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2007-06/O4/content_6196300.htm.2007年6月
国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室.中华人民共和国气候变化初始国家信息通报.http://www.ccchina.gov.cn.2005-01.
何建坤,刘滨.作为温室气体排放衡量指标的碳排放强度分析.清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(6):740-743.
何建坤.全球应对气候变化对我国的挑战与对策.科学新闻,2007,(13):14-16。
何建坤.在可持续发展框架下应对全球气候变化.科学时报,2006-06-12.
黄鼎成,林海,张志强.地球系统科学发展战略研究.气象出版社,2005.
科学技术部,国家发展改革委,外交部等.中国应对气候变化科技专项行动.www.most.gov.cn/twzb/twzbxgbd/200706/P020070615354869505471.pdf.2007年6月
李慎明,王逸舟.2007年全球政治与安全报告.社会科学文献出版社,2007.
梁优彩,伞锋/国家信息中心经济预测部.未来50年中国经济增长轨迹.经济参考报.http://www.chinafastener.biz/gb/news/124.htm..2002-12-04.
林而达,李玉娥.全球气候变化和温室气体清单编制方法,气象出版社,1998
路甬祥主编.中国可持续发展总纲(国家卷).科学出版社.2007.
门可佩,曾卫.中国未来50年人口发展预测研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2004,(3):12-17.
潘家华.后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考.气候变化研究进展,2005,(1):10-15.
潘家华.人文发展权限与发展中国家的基本碳排放需求.2002.http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3964.
彭胜潮 秦国英.地球系统科学.科学出版社,2003.
气候变化对农业影响及其对策课题组.气候变化对农业影响及其对策.北京大学出版社.1992.
秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,等.气候变化科学的最新认知.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2):63-73.
曲建升,葛全胜,张雪芹.全球变化及其相关科学概念的发展与比较.地球科学进展,2008,23(12).
曲建升,林海.地球系统科学的协调观测与预——WCRP未来10年战略框架.见:黄鼎成,
林海,张志强主编.地球系统科学发展战略研究.气象出版社,2005,p178-181.
曲建升,孙成权.全球变化研究中的“科学政治化”倾向.世界科技研究与发展,2004,26(2):78-83.
曲建升,王琴,曾静静,等.中国温室气体排放的区域分析.待发表.
曲建升,曾静静,张志强.国际主要温室气体数据集比较分析研究.地球科学进展,2008,23(01):44-51.
曲建升,张志强,林海.地球系统科学联盟(ESSP):框架与任务.见:黄鼎成,林海,张志强主编.地球系统科学发展战略研究.气象出版社,2005,p161-170.
曲建升,张志强,曾静静.气候变化科学研究的国际发展态势分析.科学观察,2008,3(4):24-31.
任国玉,徐影,罗勇.世界各国CO_2排放历史和现状.气象科技,2002,30(3):129-134.
邵锋.国际气候谈判中的国家利益和中国的方略.国际问题研究,2005,(4):45-47.
孙成权,曲建升.国际地球科学发展态势.地球科学进展,2002,17(3):344-347.
新华网.中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要.http://news.xinhuanet.com/misc/2006-03/16/content_4309517_1.htm.2006.
杨晓光,王传胜,盛科荣.基于自然和人文因素的中国欠发达地区类型划分和发展模式研究.中国科学院研究生院学报,2006,23(1):97-104.
姚玉鹏,马福臣.关于我国开展地球系统研究战略概念模型的讨论.地球科学进展,2004,20(2):144-148.
叶笃正,符淙斌,董文杰.全球变化科学进展与未来趋势.地球科学进展,2002,17(4):467-469.
叶笃正,符淙斌.全球变化科学领域的若干研究进展.中国科学院院刊,2004,19(5):336-341.
张兰生,方修琦,等.全球变化.北京:高等教育出版社,2000.
张天理,甘肃省中长期科学和技术发展规划.甘肃科学技术出版社,2007.p213-250.
张志强,曲建升,曾静静.温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析研究.地理学报,2008,63(7):693-702.
中国气候变化国别研究组.中国气候变化国别研究.清华大学出版社.2000.
中国气候变化网.气候变化国际谈判中各主要利益集团的立场.http://www.cma.gov.cn/old_cma_new/qhbh/jczx/t20050922_98448.phtml.2005.
中国气候变化信息网.中国面临气候变化七大挑战,组合拳力促节能减排.http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=8252.2007-06-25
中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所.中国未来社会经济情景研究.http://www.ami.ac.cn/C5/Presentations/OianDao%20Lake/SocialScenarios.ppt.2005.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2004年中国能源统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2004.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2005年中国能源统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2005.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2006年中国能源统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2006a.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2006年中国统计年鉴,北京:中国统计出版社,2006b.
周光召.科学技术的发展趋势和它对社会的作用.科技导报,1996.
周广胜,许振柱,王玉辉.全球变化的生态系统适应性.地球科学进展,2004,19(4):642-649..
Ahmad N.A Framework For Estimating Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods.OECD, Paris.2003.
Andres, R.J., D.J.Fielding, G.Marland, et al.Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use, 1751-1950.Tellus, 1999.51B: 759-65.
Arrhenius E, Waltz T W.The Greenhouse Effevt: Implications for Economic Development.The World Bank, Washington D C.1990.
Ausubel J, Biswas A K, eds.Climate Constraints and Human activities.Pergamon Press, Oxford.1980.
Berry E W.Tree Ancestors: a Glimpse into the Past.Illus, Baltimore.1923.
Boden, T.A., G.Marland, and R.J.Andres.Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO_2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950-1992.ORNL/CDIAC-90, NDP-30/R6.Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S.Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.1995.
Bolin B, Degens E T, Kempe S, et al.eds.The Clobal Carbon Cycle.John Wiley & Sons, New York.1977.
Brooks C E P.Climate through the Age: a Study of the Climatic Factors and their Variations.Illus,London.1926.
CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center) .Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO_2 Emissions, http://cdiac.ornl.gov.2007.
Clark W C, ed.Carbon Dioxide Review.Clarendon Press,Oxford;Oxford University Press,New York.1982.
Clark W C, Holling C S.Sustainable development of the biosphere: Human activities and global change.In: Malone T F, Roederer, eds.Global Change.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK.1985.474-490.
Clark W C, Munn R E, eds.Sustainable Development of the Biosphere.Cambridge University Press/ⅡASA, Cambridge/Laxenburg.1986
Dachnowski A P.The correlation of time units and climatic changes in peat deposits of the United States and Europe.Natl.Acad.Sci.Proc.,1922,8(7):225-231.
Department of Agriculture, United States.Climate and Man, Yearbook of Agriculture.Washington D C: United States Government Printing Office.1941.
Di Castri F.Global crises and the environment.Study week on a modern approach to the protection of the environment.Vatican City,1989.7-39.
Eggelston S, Buendia L, Miwa K, et al.2006IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) for the IPCC.2006.
EIA (Energy Information Administration) .Energy-related emissions data & environmental analyses.http://ww w.eia.doe.gov/environment.html.2007.
ESSP.The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change.http://www.sciconf.igbp.kva.se/fr.html.July,2001.
Etemad, B., J.Luciani, P.Bairoch, and J.-C.Toutain.World Energy Production 1800-1985.Librarie DROZ, Switzerland.1991.
European Communities.EU Action against Climate Change: EU emissions trading—an open scheme promoting global innovation.2005.
Firor J.The Changing Atmosphere: A Global Challenge.Yale University Press, New Haven & London.1990.
Fleagle R G..Global Environmental Change:Interactions of Science, Policy, and Politics in the United States.London: Praeger Publishers.1994
Fleming J R.Historical Perspectives on Climate Change.Oxford University Press,US: 1998.
Friedman H.The science of global change: an overview.In: Malone T F, Roederer J G eds.Global Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.1985.
GCRIO.U.S.Global Change Research Act of 1990, Public Law 101-606(11/16/90) 104 Stat.3096-3104.http://www.gcrio.org/gcact1990.html 1990.
HM Treasury.Stern review: the economics of climate change.2006-12-20.http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/
Houghton J T, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums J J, Eds.Scientific Assessment of Climate change.-Report of Working Group I.Cambridge University Press, UK.1990.
Houghton J T, Meira Filho LG, Lim B,et,al.Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.IPCC/OECD/IEA.UK Meteorological Office, Bracknell.1996.
Houghton J.Global Warming: the Compete Briefing.3rd Edition.Cambridge.2004.
IEA.CO_2 Emissions from Fuel Combustions 1971-2005.www.iea.org.2007a.
EEA.World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, www.iea.org.2007b.
IGBP.The new and evolving IGBP.Global Change Newsletter,2002,No 50,1-3.
IHDP.Strategic Plan 2007-2015: Framing Worldwide Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change.http://www.ihdp.uni-bonn.de/Pdf_filesAVebStratPlan.pdf
IPCC.Climate Change 2001: Summary for Policymakers.Cambridge University Press.2001.
IPCC.Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.Summary for Policymakers.http://www.ipcc.ch.2007a.
IPCC.Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.Summary for Policymakers.http://www.ipcc.ch.2007b.
IPCC.Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.Summary for Policymakers.http://www.ipcc.ch.2007c.
IPCC.Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change.Cambridge University Press.1995.
IPCC.Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.1990.
IPCC.IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario :Summary for Policymakers.IPCC,2000.
Jaeger J, ed.Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change: A Summary of Discussions and Recommendations of the Workshops in Villach and Bellagio.WM0.1988.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).Global Change: Impacts on Habitability, a Scientific Basis for Assessment, a report by the Executive Committee of a workshop held at Woods Hole, Mass.,June 21-26,1982.
Korec R J,ed.Atmospheric Quality and Climate Change.Papers of the Second Carolina Geographical Symposium.1975.
Lamb H H.Climate, History and the Modern World.2~(nd) edition.Routledge, London and New York.1995.
Lamb H H.The Changing Climate.Methuen Co Ltd.1966.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.Energy and Climate Change.Lewis Publishers.1990.
Malone T F, Roederer J G, eds.Global Change.Proceedings of a Symposium Sponsored by ICSU,Ottawa,Canada, 25 Sept.,1984.ICSU Press.1984.
Marland G, and Rotty R M.Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels: A procedure for estimation and results for 1950-82.Tellus, 1984, 36(B):232-61.
Marsh G P.Man and nature or physical geography as modified by human action.Scribner,New York.1864
Meadows D H, Meadows D L, Randers J, et,al.The Limits to Growth.Universe Books, New York, USA.1972.
Mendonca B G, ed.Geopgysical Monitoring for Climate Change No.7, Ummary Report 1978.NOAA.1979.
Miller C A, Edwards P W.Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance.The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.2001.
Molina M J, Rowland F S.Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: chlorine atomic catalysed destruction of ozone.Nature, 1974, 249: 810-814.
NASA Advisory Council.Earth System Science: A Closest View.NASA, Washington D C.1988.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.China now no.1 in CO_2 emissions; USA in second position.http://www.mnp.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/moreinfo/ChinanownolinCO2emissionsUSAins econdposition.html.2007-06-19.
Noewine J.Climate and Human Ecology.Houston, Texas: D.Armstrong CO., Inc.,Publishers.1977.
NRC (National Research Council).Changing Climate: Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee.Washington DC: National Academy Press.1983.
NRC.Global Change in the Geosphere-Biosphere: Initial Priorities for an IGBP.Washington DC:National Academy Press.1986.
NRC.Research Strategies for the U.S.Global Change Research Program.National Academy Press, Washington D C,.1990
NRC.Toward an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program: A Study of Global Change.Washington DGNational Academy Press.1983.
NRC.Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.Washington DC:National Academy Press.1988.
Penck A.The shifting of the climate belts.Scot.Geog.Mag.(Illus), 1914,30:281-293.
Price M F.Global change:defining the Ill-defined.Environment, 1989,31(8):18-20,42,44.
Price M F.Humankind in the biosphere: The evolution of international interdisciplinary reseach.Global Environmental Change, 1990, l(Dec):3-13.
Rotmans J, Bert De Vries.Perspectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach.Cambridge University Press, 1997.
Ruddiman W,Thomson J.The case for human causes of increasedatmospheric CH4 over the last 5000 years.Quaternary Science Reviews, 2001, 20:1769-1777.
Ruddiman W.The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago.Climatic Change,2003,61:261-293
Stern P C, Young O R, Druckman D,eds.Glibal Environmental Change.National Academy Press,Washington D C.1992
The Norwegian Nobel Committee.The Nobel Peace Prize for 2007.http://nobelprize.org.2007-10-12.
Thomas W L ed.Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth.University of Chicago,Chichago,USA.1956.
Trenberth K E,ed.Climate System Modeling.Cambridge University Press.1989.
Turner IIB L, Kasperson R E, Meyer W B, et al.Two type of global environmental change.Global Environmental Change, 1990,1(4): 14-22
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Who Owns China's Carbon Emissions? Tyndall Briefing Note No.23, October 2007.
UNDP.Human Development Report 2007/2008.Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World.2007.
UNFCCC.Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data.http://unfccc.int/2860.php
UNFCCC.Kyoto Protocol, http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
United Nations.2003 Energy Statistics Yearbook.United Nations Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.Statistics Division,New York.2006.
US Census Bureau.IDB-Rank Countries by Population.http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/
US Energy Information Administration.International Energy Annual 2004.
Vernadsky V I.The Biosphere and the Noosphere.American Scientist,1945,33(1):1-12.
WCRP.WCRP Strategic Framework for 2005-2015:Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System.2005.
Weber C L,Matthews H S.Embodied environmental emissions in US international trade 1997-2004.Environ.Sci.Technol.,2007,41(14):4875-4881.
WMO.Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2006.2007.
WMO.Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:1991.WMO/UNEP.1992.
WMO-ICSU Joint Orgnizing Committee.GARP Publication Series,No.16.1975.
Worldwatch Institute.Powering China's Development:the Role of Renewable Energy.2007.http://www.worldwatch.org
WRI(World Resource Institute).CO2 emissions series data.www.wri.org.2007
Zwerver S,van Rompaey R S A R,Kok M T J,et al.eds.Climate Change Research Evaluation and Policy Implications.Elsevier.1995.
毕思文,许强.地球系统科学.科学出版社,2003a.
毕思文.地球系统科学导论.科学出版社,2003b.
巢清尘.地球系统科学、全球变化与可持续发展.气象科技,1999(4):9-13.
第一纺织网.石脑油行业2007年1-8月份经济运行分析.http://ctc.webtextiles.com/info/info_view.asp?infoid=258266
甘肃省统计局.2007年甘肃年鉴.统计出版社,2007.
甘肃省统计局.甘肃年鉴2006.中国统计出版社.2006.
甘肃省统计信息网.甘肃省社会发展水平综合评价报告.http://www.gs.stats.gov.cn/doc/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=507.2007.
葛全胜,张丕远,纽春燕.关于气候变化影响的研究.地球科学进展,1989,(3):41-46.
郭来喜,姜德华.中国贫困地区环境类型研究.地理研究,1995,14(2):17.
国家发展改革委员会.中国应对气候变化国家方案.http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2007-06/O4/content_6196300.htm.2007年6月
国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室.中华人民共和国气候变化初始国家信息通报.http://www.ccchina.gov.cn.2005-01.
何建坤,刘滨.作为温室气体排放衡量指标的碳排放强度分析.清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(6):740-743.
何建坤.全球应对气候变化对我国的挑战与对策.科学新闻,2007,(13):14-16。
何建坤.在可持续发展框架下应对全球气候变化.科学时报,2006-06-12.
黄鼎成,林海,张志强.地球系统科学发展战略研究.气象出版社,2005.
科学技术部,国家发展改革委,外交部等.中国应对气候变化科技专项行动.www.most.gov.cn/twzb/twzbxgbd/200706/P020070615354869505471.pdf.2007年6月
李慎明,王逸舟.2007年全球政治与安全报告.社会科学文献出版社,2007.
梁优彩,伞锋/国家信息中心经济预测部.未来50年中国经济增长轨迹.经济参考报.http://www.chinafastener.biz/gb/news/124.htm..2002-12-04.
林而达,李玉娥.全球气候变化和温室气体清单编制方法,气象出版社,1998
路甬祥主编.中国可持续发展总纲(国家卷).科学出版社.2007.
门可佩,曾卫.中国未来50年人口发展预测研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2004,(3):12-17.
潘家华.后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考.气候变化研究进展,2005,(1):10-15.
潘家华.人文发展权限与发展中国家的基本碳排放需求.2002.http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3964.
彭胜潮 秦国英.地球系统科学.科学出版社,2003.
气候变化对农业影响及其对策课题组.气候变化对农业影响及其对策.北京大学出版社.1992.
秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,等.气候变化科学的最新认知.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2):63-73.
曲建升,葛全胜,张雪芹.全球变化及其相关科学概念的发展与比较.地球科学进展,2008,23(12).
曲建升,林海.地球系统科学的协调观测与预——WCRP未来10年战略框架.见:黄鼎成,
林海,张志强主编.地球系统科学发展战略研究.气象出版社,2005,p178-181.
曲建升,孙成权.全球变化研究中的“科学政治化”倾向.世界科技研究与发展,2004,26(2):78-83.
曲建升,王琴,曾静静,等.中国温室气体排放的区域分析.待发表.
曲建升,曾静静,张志强.国际主要温室气体数据集比较分析研究.地球科学进展,2008,23(01):44-51.
曲建升,张志强,林海.地球系统科学联盟(ESSP):框架与任务.见:黄鼎成,林海,张志强主编.地球系统科学发展战略研究.气象出版社,2005,p161-170.
曲建升,张志强,曾静静.气候变化科学研究的国际发展态势分析.科学观察,2008,3(4):24-31.
任国玉,徐影,罗勇.世界各国CO_2排放历史和现状.气象科技,2002,30(3):129-134.
邵锋.国际气候谈判中的国家利益和中国的方略.国际问题研究,2005,(4):45-47.
孙成权,曲建升.国际地球科学发展态势.地球科学进展,2002,17(3):344-347.
新华网.中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要.http://news.xinhuanet.com/misc/2006-03/16/content_4309517_1.htm.2006.
杨晓光,王传胜,盛科荣.基于自然和人文因素的中国欠发达地区类型划分和发展模式研究.中国科学院研究生院学报,2006,23(1):97-104.
姚玉鹏,马福臣.关于我国开展地球系统研究战略概念模型的讨论.地球科学进展,2004,20(2):144-148.
叶笃正,符淙斌,董文杰.全球变化科学进展与未来趋势.地球科学进展,2002,17(4):467-469.
叶笃正,符淙斌.全球变化科学领域的若干研究进展.中国科学院院刊,2004,19(5):336-341.
张兰生,方修琦,等.全球变化.北京:高等教育出版社,2000.
张天理,甘肃省中长期科学和技术发展规划.甘肃科学技术出版社,2007.p213-250.
张志强,曲建升,曾静静.温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析研究.地理学报,2008,63(7):693-702.
中国气候变化国别研究组.中国气候变化国别研究.清华大学出版社.2000.
中国气候变化网.气候变化国际谈判中各主要利益集团的立场.http://www.cma.gov.cn/old_cma_new/qhbh/jczx/t20050922_98448.phtml.2005.
中国气候变化信息网.中国面临气候变化七大挑战,组合拳力促节能减排.http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=8252.2007-06-25
中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所.中国未来社会经济情景研究.http://www.ami.ac.cn/C5/Presentations/OianDao%20Lake/SocialScenarios.ppt.2005.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2004年中国能源统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2004.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2005年中国能源统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2005.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2006年中国能源统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2006a.
中华人民共和国国家统计局编.2006年中国统计年鉴,北京:中国统计出版社,2006b.
周光召.科学技术的发展趋势和它对社会的作用.科技导报,1996.
周广胜,许振柱,王玉辉.全球变化的生态系统适应性.地球科学进展,2004,19(4):642-649..