水库大坝防洪应急调度问题的研究
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摘要
洪水灾害是世界上最严重的自然灾害之一，我国又是世界上水灾频发且影响范围较广泛的国家之一。在被保护区域的河道上修建水库，调蓄洪水、消减洪峰；利用水库拦蓄的水量满足灌溉、发电、供水等发展经济的需要，达到兴利除害的目的。然而，当水库大坝遭遇特大洪水、地震等突发事件时，可能会发生危及安全的事故甚至溃决，将会严重影响下游公共安全，威胁生命、经济与社会环境。本文以岗南、黄壁庄梯级水库为例，研究了梯级水库遭遇突发事件时，如何通过水库联合应急调度，降低下游保护区的洪灾损失。主要研究内容及结论如下：
⑴岗南水库出现险情，针对上游不同标准入库洪水，应用应急泄洪调度对梯级水库调洪。结果表明，入库洪水标准越高，对岗南水库险情越不利，黄壁庄水库消峰作用越小。
⑵黄壁庄水库出现险情，针对上游不同标准入库洪水，应用应急泄洪调度对梯级水库调洪。结果显示，入库洪水标准越高，岗南水库起到拦蓄洪水减少出库流量的作用越小，对黄壁庄水库险情越不利。
⑶对不同预泄时间情况下岗南水库溃坝洪水过程进行模拟，黄壁庄水库分别按调度规则控泄和以最大泄洪能力泄流两种模式对上游岗南水库预泄溃坝洪水进行调度。结果显示，岗南水库预泄时间越长，溃坝洪水对下游防护区造成的洪灾损失越小。黄壁庄水库按调度规则控泄优于以最大泄洪能力泄流的调度模式。
⑷采用AR (1)对岗南、黄壁庄水库入库洪水过程进行模拟，应用MC法计算梯级水库漫坝概率。分别对岗南水库出现险情和黄壁庄水库出现险情两种情况下梯级水库联合应急调度结果做风险分析，结果表明：黄壁庄水库出现险情时梯级水库的漫坝风险度要高于岗南水库出现险情的情况。同时可以得出：特别注意水库的安全检测，及时对大坝进行除险加固，尽量避免黄壁庄水库失事。
Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. Theinfluence of flood disaster that happened widely spreaded over our country.Reservoirs could be built on the upstream of protected area for promoting thebeneficial and abolishing the harmful. The flood control effect of reservoir is wellnotable, because it can store the flood and cuts down the flood peak flow rate.Thewater can meet the need of economic development,such as irrigation、power、watersupply and so on. However,once the emergent event occurs,for example catastrophicflood, earthquake, reservoirs will be unsafety even break which will threaten people’slife and result in bad effect on public security, economic development andenvironmental protection. Taking the Gang Nan and Huang Bizhuang cascadereservoirs as an example,the methods for reservoirs emergency regulation was studiedfor reduce flood losses when one of the cascade reservoirs is in danger. The mainresearch contents and conclusion analysis are as follows:
⑴Different standards of flood flow into Gangnan reservoir and Huangbizhuangreservoir as the former is in danger. After emergency flood control operating,theresults show that the higher standand of flood,the more danger to Gangnan reservoirand the less effect on cutting flood peak by Huangbizhuang reservoir.
⑵Different standards of flood flow into Gangnan reservoir and Huangbizhuangreservoir as the latter is in danger. After emergency flood control operating,the resultsshow that the effect of Gangnan reservoir is less,Huangbizhuang reservoir is moredangerous when the flood standard is hihger.
⑶Simulated on differences of advanced-releasing time occasions, Gangnanreservoir dam break flood is both regulated by scheduling rule of flood controloperation and discharged by flood discharge capacity of Huangbizhuang reservoir.The results indicate that advanced-releasing time of Gangnan reservoir is longer andthe dam break flood losses is smaller. The former model is better than the latter one.
⑷S easonal AR (1) model was used to simulate the Gangnan and Huangbizhuangreservoirs inflow flood.Risks are both evaluated in the case of Gangnan reservoir damis in danger and Huangbizhuang reservoir is in danger.The results show that theformer’s dam overtopping risk degree of cascade reservoirs is lower than thelatter’s.The security of reservoir dam will be paide attention, dangerous reservoirdanger control and reinforcement can avoid reservoir accident.
⑴岗南水库出现险情，针对上游不同标准入库洪水，应用应急泄洪调度对梯级水库调洪。结果表明，入库洪水标准越高，对岗南水库险情越不利，黄壁庄水库消峰作用越小。
⑵黄壁庄水库出现险情，针对上游不同标准入库洪水，应用应急泄洪调度对梯级水库调洪。结果显示，入库洪水标准越高，岗南水库起到拦蓄洪水减少出库流量的作用越小，对黄壁庄水库险情越不利。
⑶对不同预泄时间情况下岗南水库溃坝洪水过程进行模拟，黄壁庄水库分别按调度规则控泄和以最大泄洪能力泄流两种模式对上游岗南水库预泄溃坝洪水进行调度。结果显示，岗南水库预泄时间越长，溃坝洪水对下游防护区造成的洪灾损失越小。黄壁庄水库按调度规则控泄优于以最大泄洪能力泄流的调度模式。
⑷采用AR (1)对岗南、黄壁庄水库入库洪水过程进行模拟，应用MC法计算梯级水库漫坝概率。分别对岗南水库出现险情和黄壁庄水库出现险情两种情况下梯级水库联合应急调度结果做风险分析，结果表明：黄壁庄水库出现险情时梯级水库的漫坝风险度要高于岗南水库出现险情的情况。同时可以得出：特别注意水库的安全检测，及时对大坝进行除险加固，尽量避免黄壁庄水库失事。
Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. Theinfluence of flood disaster that happened widely spreaded over our country.Reservoirs could be built on the upstream of protected area for promoting thebeneficial and abolishing the harmful. The flood control effect of reservoir is wellnotable, because it can store the flood and cuts down the flood peak flow rate.Thewater can meet the need of economic development,such as irrigation、power、watersupply and so on. However,once the emergent event occurs,for example catastrophicflood, earthquake, reservoirs will be unsafety even break which will threaten people’slife and result in bad effect on public security, economic development andenvironmental protection. Taking the Gang Nan and Huang Bizhuang cascadereservoirs as an example,the methods for reservoirs emergency regulation was studiedfor reduce flood losses when one of the cascade reservoirs is in danger. The mainresearch contents and conclusion analysis are as follows:
⑴Different standards of flood flow into Gangnan reservoir and Huangbizhuangreservoir as the former is in danger. After emergency flood control operating,theresults show that the higher standand of flood,the more danger to Gangnan reservoirand the less effect on cutting flood peak by Huangbizhuang reservoir.
⑵Different standards of flood flow into Gangnan reservoir and Huangbizhuangreservoir as the latter is in danger. After emergency flood control operating,the resultsshow that the effect of Gangnan reservoir is less,Huangbizhuang reservoir is moredangerous when the flood standard is hihger.
⑶Simulated on differences of advanced-releasing time occasions, Gangnanreservoir dam break flood is both regulated by scheduling rule of flood controloperation and discharged by flood discharge capacity of Huangbizhuang reservoir.The results indicate that advanced-releasing time of Gangnan reservoir is longer andthe dam break flood losses is smaller. The former model is better than the latter one.
⑷S easonal AR (1) model was used to simulate the Gangnan and Huangbizhuangreservoirs inflow flood.Risks are both evaluated in the case of Gangnan reservoir damis in danger and Huangbizhuang reservoir is in danger.The results show that theformer’s dam overtopping risk degree of cascade reservoirs is lower than thelatter’s.The security of reservoir dam will be paide attention, dangerous reservoirdanger control and reinforcement can avoid reservoir accident.
引文
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