印度对外贸易政策改革绩效研究
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摘要
摆脱了英国近200年的殖民统治,为了发展本国经济,实现自力更生,印度选择了政府主导型发展模式,积极推行进口替代贸易战略,直到1991年,印度才开始全面经济改革,由政府主导型经济转向市场经济,并放弃进口替代贸易战略,实行外向型贸易战略。从独立到今天,印度的贸易政策演进历程可以分为四个时期。
(1)贸易严格管制时期(1947-1975)。复杂的许可证制度是当时代表性的管制手段。(2)贸易自由化改革萌芽时期(1976-1984)。这一时期,由于国际收支问题,印度对几种资本品的进口管制开始松动。(3)贸易自由化改革尝试时期(1985-1990)。这一时期,拉·甘地政府进行了更大范围的,幅度更大的大胆的改革尝试,但是关税很高,而且放松管制的项目也多是国内不能生产或不能实现完全替代的。这次改革尝试为1991年的全面经济改革奠定了基础。(4)贸易自由化全面改革及深化时期(1991年至今)。1991年的全面经济改革确定了外向型贸易发展战略,贸易限制大幅减少。此后的政府继续了这一改革方向,进行了更深层次、更大范围的贸易政策改革。
从上世纪70年代中期的改革萌芽,到1991年的全面改革,再经过之后的不断深化与调整,印度的贸易政策改革经历了30多年的时间。可以看出印度的贸易政策改革是谨慎的、渐进式的。这漫长的改革实践到底对印度的经济发展及人民福利产生了何种影响是论文主要关心的问题。这也是许多实行贸易政策改革的发展中国家所关注的问题。
论文主要从三个方面对上述主题进行了研究,即印度对外贸易政策改革的经济增长效应、产业结构效应及就业效应。前两个效应可以综合反映印度贸易政策对印度经济发展的影响,就业效应可以揭示贸易政策的福利效应。
首先,印度贸易政策改革的经济增长效应。关于贸易政策与经济增长关系的理论主要可以归为三类：经济增长理论、贸易理论及制度理论,这些理论从不同角度,探讨了贸易政策可能对经济增长产生的影响,指出了贸易政策对经济增长产生影响的途径,如提高经济效率、储蓄率,促进技术进步、资本积累等。制度理论强调了制度环境与贸易政策协调性的重要性。总之,主流观点认为贸易自由化是有利的。
论文使用印度1975-2008年的数据,利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法研究了印度贸易政策改革对印度经济增长的影响,结果验证了主流理论的预测,印度贸易政策改革通过促进资本积累对印度经济增长产生了积极作用。
其次,印度贸易政策改革的产业结构效应。关于贸易政策与产业结构关系的理论,主要包括两类：产业理论及贸易理论,产业理论指出了产业结构对经济发展的意义,同时也指出贸易将改变一国产业发展的需求及供给条件,从而引起一国产业结构的变化。许多产业经济学家都强调了对外贸易政策对产业发展的作用,并将贸易战略纳入工业发展战略中；贸易理论中的幼稚产业保护理论及战略性贸易政策理论都是针对产业发展的理论,自由贸易政策的相关理论(比较优势理论、要素禀赋理论)强调一国的比较优势及要素禀赋是一国产业结构的决定因素。动态比较优势理论,强调一国的比较优势不是一成不变的,一国可以通过适当的贸易政策培养有利于国家发展的潜在的比较优势。产品生命周期理论与赤松要的雁型理论,也都间接揭示了贸易政策将会影响一国的产业结构发展。
从印度的产业结构来看,印度的产业发展路径不同于多数国家,印度没有经历第二产业为主的产业发展阶段便进入以第三产业为主的阶段。印度的贸易政策对第三产业的发展产生了积极作用。战略性贸易政策在软件业的实施,极大地促进了印度IT产业的发展,推动了服务贸易结构的升级。论文中对软件等服务出口开放度及服务业产出份额的回归分析表明印度的战略性贸易政策推动了整个服务产业的发展；使用1981-2006年的数据对印度商品贸易开放度及工业投资进行协整检验的结果显示,印度的贸易政策改革对工业投资也有积极的影响。总之,印度的贸易政策改革促进了产业结构升级,但是贸易政策对工业的积极作用还有待进一步释放。
最后,印度贸易政策改革的就业效应。关于贸易政策与就业关系的阐述主要有H-O模型、Stolper-Samuelson模型、Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson模型、专用要素模型及超保护贸易理论等。前四种模型主要探讨了由于国际贸易将影响国内产品的相对价格,进而对要素需求、要素价格产生影响。超保护贸易理论强调贸易顺差对就业的扩大作用。
从印度的就业情况来看,除了IT行业外,印度的贸易政策改革没有产生明显的就业拉动作用,使用印度1981-2007年的工厂工人就业人数,工资支出及贸易开放度数据进行Johansen协整检验,结果显示印度的对外贸易政策对工厂固定工人就业产生了消极影响。
综上所述,总体看来,印度的贸易政策改革促进了印度的经济发展,但是就业拉动效应不大,对工厂工人就业甚至产生消极作用。印度政府应该积极总结经验教训,立足本国经济及人力资本情况进行政策调整,在促进本国经济平衡发展的同时,扩大就业。
Freed from the British colonialism which had reigned over India for about 200 years, to promote the economic development, Indian government chose the government-oriented economy, pushing forward the strategy of import substitution. Not until 1991, did India begin its all-round economic reforms, shifting from government-oriented to market-oriented economy and substituting outward looking trade strategy for import substitution. From India's independence till now, the evolution of Indian trade policy can be divided into four phases:
The first is the phase of strict restriction on trade (1947-1974), when complicated system of licensing was one of the typical measures taken to regulate trade. The second is the budding phase of free trade reform(1975-1984), when, because of poor international payment conditions, Indian government began to relax the regulation of a few capital goods. The third is the phase of attempting free trade reform(1985-1990), when Rajiv Gandhi made a bold attempt to involve more items in the reform. However, the tariffs were high and the relaxed items were those that could not be produced or could not be substituted perfectly domestically. The reform attempt laid foundation for the subsequent all-round economic reforms. The fourth is the phase of all-round reform and its deepening(1991 till now), when outward-looking strategy was determined and trade restrictions were greatly reduced. The succeeding governments continue the reform and deeper and wider-range of reforms have been carried out.
From the budding phase beginning from the mid-70s, and the all-round economic reform in 1991, till the deeper adjustment towards free trade, the trade policy reform has lasted for more than 30 years, which shows a cautious and progressive course. What on earth the trade reform has brought to India's economy and people is what the paper is most concerned about, which is also what the developing countries that have adopted free trade reforms are concerned about.
The paper explores the subject from three respects - they are the effects of Indian trade policy reforms on the economic growth, on industrial structure and on employment. The first two together reflect the effect on economic development and the employment effect reveals the welfare effect of trade policy reforms.
First, the effect of Indian trade policy reform on economic growth. Theories on the relationship between trade policies and economic growth fall into three perspectives:the perspective of growth theory, the perspective of trade theory and the perspective of institution theories. These theories expound the effects of foreign trade policy on economic growth, pointing out how foreign trade might influence economic growth, by way of increasing economic efficiency, saving rate, and boosting technological progress, capital accumulation, etc.. The institutional perspective emphasizes the coordination between trade policy and institutional environment. In a word, the mainstream theories believe that free trade will be beneficial.
With 1975-2008 data, employing econometrical methods of co-integration and Granger Causality, the paper studies the effects of Indian free trade reform on India's economic growth. The findings show that India's free trade reform has contributed to Indian economic growth by enhancing capital accumulation, which confirms the predictions of mainstream theories.
Second, the effect of Indian trade policy reform on indusrial structure. Theories on the relationship between trade policy and industrial structure comprise two categories: one is the industrial perspective and the other is the trade perspective. The industrial theory points out the importance of industrial upgrading to economic development. By affecting the demand and supply conditions that are connected with the industrial development, foreign trade will lead to the change of industrial structure. Many industrial economists stress the impact of foreign trade policy on industrial development, and include trade strategy in the strategy of industrial development. In trade theory, both infant industry theory and strategic trade policy are directed at industries, and free trade theories (comparative advantage, factor endowment) believe the industrial structure should conform to the country's comparative advantage and factor endowment. The dynamic comparative advantage theory claims that the comparative advantage does not stay constant, so a country can develop its potential comparative advantage by adopting proper policies. The product cycle theory and Kaname Akamatsu's wild goose theory also indirectly reveals that a country's foreign trade policy will influence its industrial structure.
As far as Indian industrial structure is concerned, it is different from most of other countries. Skipping the period of having the second industry as the main ingredient, India enters the phase of having the tertiary industry as the dominating element. India's trade policy has played a positive role in the development of the tertiary industry. The implementation of strategic trade policy boosts the development of IT industry greatly, propelling the upgrading of Indian trade in services. The co-integration test of openness of export of services and service industry reveals India's export in services plays a positive role in the development of service industry. The results of co-integration test with 1981-2006 data show that India's trade reform has a positive influence on investment in the second industry. In sum, Indian trade policy reform helps to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but its boosting effect on the second industry are yet to be achieved.
Finally, the effect of Indian trade policy reform on employment. The main elaboration on the relationship between trade policy and employment lies in H-O model, S-S model, H-O-S model, specific factor model and super-protective trade theory, etc. The first four models discuss the possible changes of factor demands and factor prices owing to the change of relative prices of domestic goods brought about by foreign trade activities. Super-protective trade theory emphasizes the positive role of trade surplus in expanding employment.
As to the employment effect, except for IT industry, the trade policy does not show an obvious positive impact. With 1981-2007 data, by using Johansen co-integration method, the paper finds that Indian foreign trade policy has a negative influence on the factory employment.
To sum up, Indian trade policy reform plays a positive role in its economic development, but it is not ideal to expand employment. It even has a negative effect on factory employment. Indian government should draw lessons from the past, and make adjustments based on the country's economic conditions and the structure of human resource, to boost the balanced economic development and employment as well.
(1)贸易严格管制时期(1947-1975)。复杂的许可证制度是当时代表性的管制手段。(2)贸易自由化改革萌芽时期(1976-1984)。这一时期,由于国际收支问题,印度对几种资本品的进口管制开始松动。(3)贸易自由化改革尝试时期(1985-1990)。这一时期,拉·甘地政府进行了更大范围的,幅度更大的大胆的改革尝试,但是关税很高,而且放松管制的项目也多是国内不能生产或不能实现完全替代的。这次改革尝试为1991年的全面经济改革奠定了基础。(4)贸易自由化全面改革及深化时期(1991年至今)。1991年的全面经济改革确定了外向型贸易发展战略,贸易限制大幅减少。此后的政府继续了这一改革方向,进行了更深层次、更大范围的贸易政策改革。
从上世纪70年代中期的改革萌芽,到1991年的全面改革,再经过之后的不断深化与调整,印度的贸易政策改革经历了30多年的时间。可以看出印度的贸易政策改革是谨慎的、渐进式的。这漫长的改革实践到底对印度的经济发展及人民福利产生了何种影响是论文主要关心的问题。这也是许多实行贸易政策改革的发展中国家所关注的问题。
论文主要从三个方面对上述主题进行了研究,即印度对外贸易政策改革的经济增长效应、产业结构效应及就业效应。前两个效应可以综合反映印度贸易政策对印度经济发展的影响,就业效应可以揭示贸易政策的福利效应。
首先,印度贸易政策改革的经济增长效应。关于贸易政策与经济增长关系的理论主要可以归为三类：经济增长理论、贸易理论及制度理论,这些理论从不同角度,探讨了贸易政策可能对经济增长产生的影响,指出了贸易政策对经济增长产生影响的途径,如提高经济效率、储蓄率,促进技术进步、资本积累等。制度理论强调了制度环境与贸易政策协调性的重要性。总之,主流观点认为贸易自由化是有利的。
论文使用印度1975-2008年的数据,利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法研究了印度贸易政策改革对印度经济增长的影响,结果验证了主流理论的预测,印度贸易政策改革通过促进资本积累对印度经济增长产生了积极作用。
其次,印度贸易政策改革的产业结构效应。关于贸易政策与产业结构关系的理论,主要包括两类：产业理论及贸易理论,产业理论指出了产业结构对经济发展的意义,同时也指出贸易将改变一国产业发展的需求及供给条件,从而引起一国产业结构的变化。许多产业经济学家都强调了对外贸易政策对产业发展的作用,并将贸易战略纳入工业发展战略中；贸易理论中的幼稚产业保护理论及战略性贸易政策理论都是针对产业发展的理论,自由贸易政策的相关理论(比较优势理论、要素禀赋理论)强调一国的比较优势及要素禀赋是一国产业结构的决定因素。动态比较优势理论,强调一国的比较优势不是一成不变的,一国可以通过适当的贸易政策培养有利于国家发展的潜在的比较优势。产品生命周期理论与赤松要的雁型理论,也都间接揭示了贸易政策将会影响一国的产业结构发展。
从印度的产业结构来看,印度的产业发展路径不同于多数国家,印度没有经历第二产业为主的产业发展阶段便进入以第三产业为主的阶段。印度的贸易政策对第三产业的发展产生了积极作用。战略性贸易政策在软件业的实施,极大地促进了印度IT产业的发展,推动了服务贸易结构的升级。论文中对软件等服务出口开放度及服务业产出份额的回归分析表明印度的战略性贸易政策推动了整个服务产业的发展；使用1981-2006年的数据对印度商品贸易开放度及工业投资进行协整检验的结果显示,印度的贸易政策改革对工业投资也有积极的影响。总之,印度的贸易政策改革促进了产业结构升级,但是贸易政策对工业的积极作用还有待进一步释放。
最后,印度贸易政策改革的就业效应。关于贸易政策与就业关系的阐述主要有H-O模型、Stolper-Samuelson模型、Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson模型、专用要素模型及超保护贸易理论等。前四种模型主要探讨了由于国际贸易将影响国内产品的相对价格,进而对要素需求、要素价格产生影响。超保护贸易理论强调贸易顺差对就业的扩大作用。
从印度的就业情况来看,除了IT行业外,印度的贸易政策改革没有产生明显的就业拉动作用,使用印度1981-2007年的工厂工人就业人数,工资支出及贸易开放度数据进行Johansen协整检验,结果显示印度的对外贸易政策对工厂固定工人就业产生了消极影响。
综上所述,总体看来,印度的贸易政策改革促进了印度的经济发展,但是就业拉动效应不大,对工厂工人就业甚至产生消极作用。印度政府应该积极总结经验教训,立足本国经济及人力资本情况进行政策调整,在促进本国经济平衡发展的同时,扩大就业。
Freed from the British colonialism which had reigned over India for about 200 years, to promote the economic development, Indian government chose the government-oriented economy, pushing forward the strategy of import substitution. Not until 1991, did India begin its all-round economic reforms, shifting from government-oriented to market-oriented economy and substituting outward looking trade strategy for import substitution. From India's independence till now, the evolution of Indian trade policy can be divided into four phases:
The first is the phase of strict restriction on trade (1947-1974), when complicated system of licensing was one of the typical measures taken to regulate trade. The second is the budding phase of free trade reform(1975-1984), when, because of poor international payment conditions, Indian government began to relax the regulation of a few capital goods. The third is the phase of attempting free trade reform(1985-1990), when Rajiv Gandhi made a bold attempt to involve more items in the reform. However, the tariffs were high and the relaxed items were those that could not be produced or could not be substituted perfectly domestically. The reform attempt laid foundation for the subsequent all-round economic reforms. The fourth is the phase of all-round reform and its deepening(1991 till now), when outward-looking strategy was determined and trade restrictions were greatly reduced. The succeeding governments continue the reform and deeper and wider-range of reforms have been carried out.
From the budding phase beginning from the mid-70s, and the all-round economic reform in 1991, till the deeper adjustment towards free trade, the trade policy reform has lasted for more than 30 years, which shows a cautious and progressive course. What on earth the trade reform has brought to India's economy and people is what the paper is most concerned about, which is also what the developing countries that have adopted free trade reforms are concerned about.
The paper explores the subject from three respects - they are the effects of Indian trade policy reforms on the economic growth, on industrial structure and on employment. The first two together reflect the effect on economic development and the employment effect reveals the welfare effect of trade policy reforms.
First, the effect of Indian trade policy reform on economic growth. Theories on the relationship between trade policies and economic growth fall into three perspectives:the perspective of growth theory, the perspective of trade theory and the perspective of institution theories. These theories expound the effects of foreign trade policy on economic growth, pointing out how foreign trade might influence economic growth, by way of increasing economic efficiency, saving rate, and boosting technological progress, capital accumulation, etc.. The institutional perspective emphasizes the coordination between trade policy and institutional environment. In a word, the mainstream theories believe that free trade will be beneficial.
With 1975-2008 data, employing econometrical methods of co-integration and Granger Causality, the paper studies the effects of Indian free trade reform on India's economic growth. The findings show that India's free trade reform has contributed to Indian economic growth by enhancing capital accumulation, which confirms the predictions of mainstream theories.
Second, the effect of Indian trade policy reform on indusrial structure. Theories on the relationship between trade policy and industrial structure comprise two categories: one is the industrial perspective and the other is the trade perspective. The industrial theory points out the importance of industrial upgrading to economic development. By affecting the demand and supply conditions that are connected with the industrial development, foreign trade will lead to the change of industrial structure. Many industrial economists stress the impact of foreign trade policy on industrial development, and include trade strategy in the strategy of industrial development. In trade theory, both infant industry theory and strategic trade policy are directed at industries, and free trade theories (comparative advantage, factor endowment) believe the industrial structure should conform to the country's comparative advantage and factor endowment. The dynamic comparative advantage theory claims that the comparative advantage does not stay constant, so a country can develop its potential comparative advantage by adopting proper policies. The product cycle theory and Kaname Akamatsu's wild goose theory also indirectly reveals that a country's foreign trade policy will influence its industrial structure.
As far as Indian industrial structure is concerned, it is different from most of other countries. Skipping the period of having the second industry as the main ingredient, India enters the phase of having the tertiary industry as the dominating element. India's trade policy has played a positive role in the development of the tertiary industry. The implementation of strategic trade policy boosts the development of IT industry greatly, propelling the upgrading of Indian trade in services. The co-integration test of openness of export of services and service industry reveals India's export in services plays a positive role in the development of service industry. The results of co-integration test with 1981-2006 data show that India's trade reform has a positive influence on investment in the second industry. In sum, Indian trade policy reform helps to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but its boosting effect on the second industry are yet to be achieved.
Finally, the effect of Indian trade policy reform on employment. The main elaboration on the relationship between trade policy and employment lies in H-O model, S-S model, H-O-S model, specific factor model and super-protective trade theory, etc. The first four models discuss the possible changes of factor demands and factor prices owing to the change of relative prices of domestic goods brought about by foreign trade activities. Super-protective trade theory emphasizes the positive role of trade surplus in expanding employment.
As to the employment effect, except for IT industry, the trade policy does not show an obvious positive impact. With 1981-2007 data, by using Johansen co-integration method, the paper finds that Indian foreign trade policy has a negative influence on the factory employment.
To sum up, Indian trade policy reform plays a positive role in its economic development, but it is not ideal to expand employment. It even has a negative effect on factory employment. Indian government should draw lessons from the past, and make adjustments based on the country's economic conditions and the structure of human resource, to boost the balanced economic development and employment as well.
引文
①[印]桑贾亚·巴鲁.印度崛起的战略影响[M].中信出版社,2002：2
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