基于时间尺度的区域水资源优化配置研究
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摘要
水资源是人类社会生存与发展中不可替代的重要自然资源及生态环境系统的基本要素;同时,随着人口的增长和工农业生产的发展,水资源所面临的危机日益严重,加上生态环境失调,已严重阻碍了我国经济社会的持续发展。因此,对区域水资源进行合理规划与利用势在必行,尤其在水资源供需紧张的西北内陆干旱区,水资源系统作为一个多目标、多层次的复杂系统,建立合理的水资源优化配置模型,具有十分重要的实践意义。本文在阅读整理国内外水资源优化配置和水资源可持续利用理论及分析方法的基础上,应用改进的BP人工神经网络、指标分析法和多目标规划法分别对甘肃省瓜州县进行需水预测分析和时间尺度水资源优化配置,得到以下几点结论:
1、运用改进的BP人工神经网络和指标分析法分别对瓜州县需水量进行了初步预测,通过对比分析预测结果表明:采用指标分析法所得到的预测结果总体效果较好;改进的BP人工神经网络较适合于较短时期的预测,其精度相对指标分析法高;对于长期预测,从运算角度看,由于BP神经网络本身存在的缺陷,使得运算量大,与指标分析法相比,达到期望值所需时间长,消耗人力多。
2、从瓜州县水资源开发利用现状出发,分析了在水资源开发利用中存在的问题,提出了针对瓜州县水资源开发利用过程中可能改进的措施。主要体现在随着瓜州县经济社会的发展,节水型社会建设的大力推进,用水结构改变,在生态用水得到保障的基础上,社会经济收入逐步提高,农业用水总量逐步减少,工业用水和废水回用量逐渐增加。
3、从多目标规划原则出发,基于水资源多用户问题,采用工业、农业、生活多目标规划法,以实现区域水资源效益最大化为目标函数,按照约束条件的客观性与主观性,给出相应的非劣解;通过调用Matlab优化工具箱的优化函数,得到适合瓜州县的合理配置有限水资源方案及相应最大效益。2010规划水平年需水总量为5.8311×10~8m~3,2015年为5.8518×10~8m~3,2020年为6.0895×10~8m~3;各规划水平年行业用水总效益分别为7.2645×10~8元、11.9453×10~8元和13.3284×10~8元。
Water resources are the basic elements and important natural resources in the developing of human society and environment system.With the population increasing,the social and economic rapid development,and the people's living standard improvement,the inconsistency of water supply and requirement is becoming more and more obtrusive,and adding to the maladjustment of environment system that counteracted our economical develop seriously.All these illogicalities are much more evidence.This paper based on the theory and methods of water resource optimal allocation and water resource sustainable utilization,applying three models that including improved BP artificial neural networks,index analytical method and multi-objection optimization planning to forecast the water consumption amount of Guazhou County in Gansu Province. Several aspects content are included in this paper as following:
First of all,this paper mainly made use of improved BP artificial neural networks and index analytical method to forecast the water consumption amount of Guazhou County in Gansu Province.These two results show that the index analytical method represent more perfect in total than the improved BP artificial neural networks.And there are some bugs for improved BP artificial neural networks self,so as to long term prognosis,it would demand much more time and power to get logical outcomes,even for short time forecasting,the precision of improved BP artificial neural networks is higher.
Secondly,in this article,analyzed the water resource's characteristic and the existing condition of Guazhou County and the issues that are still remain in,and bring out some likelihood steps to improve actuality.And along with economy development,building of water saving society, changing of water using structure of Guazhou County,economy earning is gradually increasing. The amount of irrigation water will be decrease step by step,while the water use in industry is gain more,and the technical progress will lead to more recycle water use in production.
Thirdly,bases on the principle of multi-objection optimization,adopting multi-objection optimization planning including industry,agriculture and daily life needs,constructing mathematical model which is aimed at maximum benefit of urban water resources.Due to the objectivity and subjectivity of qualification inhibit,we can get several non-inferior solutions.And carefully studying the goal-attaining function of Matlab toolbox and applying different optimum scenarios,this paper has analyzed and put forward optimization scenarios in different years,and the finally scheme may help realize the effective control of water resources allocation.The demanding of water resource is 5.8311×10~8m~3,5.8518×10~8m~3 and 6.0895×10~8m~3 in year 2010,2015 and 2020 respectively:and the total benefit in year 2010,2015 and 2020of all department is 7.2645×10~8 RMB、11.9453×10~8 RMB and 13.3284×10~8 RMB。
1、运用改进的BP人工神经网络和指标分析法分别对瓜州县需水量进行了初步预测,通过对比分析预测结果表明:采用指标分析法所得到的预测结果总体效果较好;改进的BP人工神经网络较适合于较短时期的预测,其精度相对指标分析法高;对于长期预测,从运算角度看,由于BP神经网络本身存在的缺陷,使得运算量大,与指标分析法相比,达到期望值所需时间长,消耗人力多。
2、从瓜州县水资源开发利用现状出发,分析了在水资源开发利用中存在的问题,提出了针对瓜州县水资源开发利用过程中可能改进的措施。主要体现在随着瓜州县经济社会的发展,节水型社会建设的大力推进,用水结构改变,在生态用水得到保障的基础上,社会经济收入逐步提高,农业用水总量逐步减少,工业用水和废水回用量逐渐增加。
3、从多目标规划原则出发,基于水资源多用户问题,采用工业、农业、生活多目标规划法,以实现区域水资源效益最大化为目标函数,按照约束条件的客观性与主观性,给出相应的非劣解;通过调用Matlab优化工具箱的优化函数,得到适合瓜州县的合理配置有限水资源方案及相应最大效益。2010规划水平年需水总量为5.8311×10~8m~3,2015年为5.8518×10~8m~3,2020年为6.0895×10~8m~3;各规划水平年行业用水总效益分别为7.2645×10~8元、11.9453×10~8元和13.3284×10~8元。
Water resources are the basic elements and important natural resources in the developing of human society and environment system.With the population increasing,the social and economic rapid development,and the people's living standard improvement,the inconsistency of water supply and requirement is becoming more and more obtrusive,and adding to the maladjustment of environment system that counteracted our economical develop seriously.All these illogicalities are much more evidence.This paper based on the theory and methods of water resource optimal allocation and water resource sustainable utilization,applying three models that including improved BP artificial neural networks,index analytical method and multi-objection optimization planning to forecast the water consumption amount of Guazhou County in Gansu Province. Several aspects content are included in this paper as following:
First of all,this paper mainly made use of improved BP artificial neural networks and index analytical method to forecast the water consumption amount of Guazhou County in Gansu Province.These two results show that the index analytical method represent more perfect in total than the improved BP artificial neural networks.And there are some bugs for improved BP artificial neural networks self,so as to long term prognosis,it would demand much more time and power to get logical outcomes,even for short time forecasting,the precision of improved BP artificial neural networks is higher.
Secondly,in this article,analyzed the water resource's characteristic and the existing condition of Guazhou County and the issues that are still remain in,and bring out some likelihood steps to improve actuality.And along with economy development,building of water saving society, changing of water using structure of Guazhou County,economy earning is gradually increasing. The amount of irrigation water will be decrease step by step,while the water use in industry is gain more,and the technical progress will lead to more recycle water use in production.
Thirdly,bases on the principle of multi-objection optimization,adopting multi-objection optimization planning including industry,agriculture and daily life needs,constructing mathematical model which is aimed at maximum benefit of urban water resources.Due to the objectivity and subjectivity of qualification inhibit,we can get several non-inferior solutions.And carefully studying the goal-attaining function of Matlab toolbox and applying different optimum scenarios,this paper has analyzed and put forward optimization scenarios in different years,and the finally scheme may help realize the effective control of water resources allocation.The demanding of water resource is 5.8311×10~8m~3,5.8518×10~8m~3 and 6.0895×10~8m~3 in year 2010,2015 and 2020 respectively:and the total benefit in year 2010,2015 and 2020of all department is 7.2645×10~8 RMB、11.9453×10~8 RMB and 13.3284×10~8 RMB。
引文
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