松辽盆地兴城气田火山岩储层天然气开发技术经济评价
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摘要
随着油气勘探开发技术水平的提高,在我国松辽盆地北部深层火山岩储层中发现了大规模的天然气藏,其储量规模预计可达到3～5千亿立方米。但是深层天然气的勘探开发在我国还处于起步阶段,随着我国环境保护、优化能源结构和可持续发展战略的实施,深层天然气开发的技术经济评价会越来越受到政府和企业各级决策者的重视。深层火山岩储层天然气开发技术经济评价及风险性决策研究是一项非常复杂的系统性工作,本文针对火山岩气藏具有岩石类型多、岩性复杂、岩性岩相变化快、储层微裂缝发育、物性差、非均质性强、开发难度大的特点,在规范了其开发的技术经济评价程序的基础上,采用多学科方法对深层火山岩储层天然气开发方案进行了系统的综合研究与评价。
在天然气的开采特别是松辽盆地兴城气田火山岩储层天然气开采过程中,会出现气井出水的现象,使得气井逐渐失去自喷能力,严重影响了气井采收率及生产产量。针对这种情况下,本文从技术和经济两个方面建立了排水采气技术选择的指标体系,并采用改进的区间数据包络分析法(DEA)对其技术进行了评价和优选,改进后模型的效率指数可以大于1,减少了区间效率指数的相互重叠,为更好地选择深层天然气排水采气技术的奠定了基础。同时,通过投影分析,指出非有效的排水采气技术的不足之处,以及可以改进的幅度,为深层火山岩储层天然气开发方案的设计提供可靠的依据。
根据优选出的排水采气技术的实际状况,在归纳出深层火山岩天然气开发方案设计的技术经济特点的基础上,按照气田开发方案设计的原理和程序,提出了兴城火山岩储层开发方案的设计时,在选择开发方式、划分开发层系和确定开发井网这三个方面应重点的考虑问题,并采用改进后的TOPSIS法对开发方案进行了优选。
为了降低深层火山岩储层开发方案的风险,采用概率分析方法对优选出的开发方案的风险进行了分析,在确定出风险补偿率的基础上,建立了新的开发方案的评价模型,并对已选出的开发方案进行了评价,为降低开发风险提供了科学的决策依据。同时从资源评价结果的不确定性、开发评价结果的不确定性、工程评价结果的不确定性和经济评价结果的不确定性四个方面阐述了风险的来源,提出了相应的防范措施。
Along with the technology improvement of the oil and gas exploration and development, a large-scale of natural gas in the deep-seated volcanic reservoir has been found in the northern part of Songliao Basin in China. It is estimated that the reserve could reach 300 to 500 billion cubic meters. However, deep natural gas exploration and development in China is still in its infancy. As the strategy of protecting environment, optimizing the energy structure and promoting the sustainable development in China has been implemented, government and business decision-makers at all levels will increasingly pay attention to the technical and economic evaluation on deep-seated gas development. The technical and economic evaluation on deep-seated gas exploration and the according risk decision making is a complex and systemic research. According to the volcanic reservoir gas characteristics including various lava types, complex lithology, quick changes of lithofacies, micro-fracture of the reservoir, poor physical properties, strong heterogeneity and tough development, the thesis standardizes the technical and economic evaluation procedures of the development, and uses a multidisciplinary approach to systematically and comprehensively study and evaluate the deep-seated volcanic reservoir gas development program.
There might be the phenomenon of water wells during the process of natural gas exploitation, especially in Xingcheng Volcanic reservoir in Songliao Basin Gas Field, which makes the gas wells have gradually lost their self-spraying ability and seriously affects the recovery and the production capacity. In view of this situation, the thesis establishes an index system for gas drainage technology options from technical and economic perspectives. It adopts improved interval data envelopment analysis to evaluate and optimize its technology. The efficiency index of the improved model can be greater than 1, which reduces the mutual overlap of the interval efficiency indices and lays the foundation for the better choice of the deep-seated gas drainage technology. At the same time, through the projection analysis, it points out the inadequacies of the non-effective gas drainage technology, as well as the range of improvements, which provide a reliable basis for the deep-seated volcanic reservoir gas development program.
According to the actual situation of the optimum gas drainage technology, the paper sums up the technical and economic characteristics of the deep-seated gas development program, and puts forward the key points in the choice of development methods, development layer division and the development pattern determination based on the principles and procedures designed in the program. Then it adopts the improved TOPSIS method to optimize the development program.
In order to reduce the risks of the program, the paper uses probability analysis method to analyze the risks of the optimized one. Based on the determination of the risk rate of compensation, it establishes a new evaluation model, which evaluates the program and provides a scientific basis for decision-making. At the same time, it illustrates the risk sources from the perspectives of uncertain resources evaluation results, uncertain development evaluation results, uncertain project evaluation results and uncertain economy evaluation results, and also proposes the corresponding preventive measures.
在天然气的开采特别是松辽盆地兴城气田火山岩储层天然气开采过程中,会出现气井出水的现象,使得气井逐渐失去自喷能力,严重影响了气井采收率及生产产量。针对这种情况下,本文从技术和经济两个方面建立了排水采气技术选择的指标体系,并采用改进的区间数据包络分析法(DEA)对其技术进行了评价和优选,改进后模型的效率指数可以大于1,减少了区间效率指数的相互重叠,为更好地选择深层天然气排水采气技术的奠定了基础。同时,通过投影分析,指出非有效的排水采气技术的不足之处,以及可以改进的幅度,为深层火山岩储层天然气开发方案的设计提供可靠的依据。
根据优选出的排水采气技术的实际状况,在归纳出深层火山岩天然气开发方案设计的技术经济特点的基础上,按照气田开发方案设计的原理和程序,提出了兴城火山岩储层开发方案的设计时,在选择开发方式、划分开发层系和确定开发井网这三个方面应重点的考虑问题,并采用改进后的TOPSIS法对开发方案进行了优选。
为了降低深层火山岩储层开发方案的风险,采用概率分析方法对优选出的开发方案的风险进行了分析,在确定出风险补偿率的基础上,建立了新的开发方案的评价模型,并对已选出的开发方案进行了评价,为降低开发风险提供了科学的决策依据。同时从资源评价结果的不确定性、开发评价结果的不确定性、工程评价结果的不确定性和经济评价结果的不确定性四个方面阐述了风险的来源,提出了相应的防范措施。
Along with the technology improvement of the oil and gas exploration and development, a large-scale of natural gas in the deep-seated volcanic reservoir has been found in the northern part of Songliao Basin in China. It is estimated that the reserve could reach 300 to 500 billion cubic meters. However, deep natural gas exploration and development in China is still in its infancy. As the strategy of protecting environment, optimizing the energy structure and promoting the sustainable development in China has been implemented, government and business decision-makers at all levels will increasingly pay attention to the technical and economic evaluation on deep-seated gas development. The technical and economic evaluation on deep-seated gas exploration and the according risk decision making is a complex and systemic research. According to the volcanic reservoir gas characteristics including various lava types, complex lithology, quick changes of lithofacies, micro-fracture of the reservoir, poor physical properties, strong heterogeneity and tough development, the thesis standardizes the technical and economic evaluation procedures of the development, and uses a multidisciplinary approach to systematically and comprehensively study and evaluate the deep-seated volcanic reservoir gas development program.
There might be the phenomenon of water wells during the process of natural gas exploitation, especially in Xingcheng Volcanic reservoir in Songliao Basin Gas Field, which makes the gas wells have gradually lost their self-spraying ability and seriously affects the recovery and the production capacity. In view of this situation, the thesis establishes an index system for gas drainage technology options from technical and economic perspectives. It adopts improved interval data envelopment analysis to evaluate and optimize its technology. The efficiency index of the improved model can be greater than 1, which reduces the mutual overlap of the interval efficiency indices and lays the foundation for the better choice of the deep-seated gas drainage technology. At the same time, through the projection analysis, it points out the inadequacies of the non-effective gas drainage technology, as well as the range of improvements, which provide a reliable basis for the deep-seated volcanic reservoir gas development program.
According to the actual situation of the optimum gas drainage technology, the paper sums up the technical and economic characteristics of the deep-seated gas development program, and puts forward the key points in the choice of development methods, development layer division and the development pattern determination based on the principles and procedures designed in the program. Then it adopts the improved TOPSIS method to optimize the development program.
In order to reduce the risks of the program, the paper uses probability analysis method to analyze the risks of the optimized one. Based on the determination of the risk rate of compensation, it establishes a new evaluation model, which evaluates the program and provides a scientific basis for decision-making. At the same time, it illustrates the risk sources from the perspectives of uncertain resources evaluation results, uncertain development evaluation results, uncertain project evaluation results and uncertain economy evaluation results, and also proposes the corresponding preventive measures.
引文
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