中国城镇居民消费需求变动及影响因素研究
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摘要
消费既是生产的最终目的和归宿,又是社会再生产的起点和一国经济平稳发展的持久性动力。2008年爆发的全球性金融危机重创了世界各国的实体经济,我国长期倚重出口和投资拉动的发展方式受到了严俊挑战。针对我国外需市场的萎缩和发展模式的粗放效应,“十二五规划”将扩大国内消费需求提到了经济发展的战略核心地位。因此,研究居民消费需求,特别是研究制约城镇居民消费需求的相关因素,对于扩大内需和加快经济发展方式转变具有重要的现实意义。
本文首先对已有的消费理论和研究文献进行了回顾和梳理,然后分析了改革开放以来我国城镇居民消费需求的变动及其对经济增长的影响。研究中发现,稳定和提高城镇居民消费需求有利于经济的长期稳定增长,但目前我国城镇居民的消费却存在消费倾向下降、消费结构升级缓慢等问题。所以,本文基于不同的消费理论分别从三个角度分析了制约我国城镇居民消费需求扩大的因素:(1)从收入分配状况角度入手,通过建立ARDL模型和边界检验法分析了收入分配差距对平均消费倾向的影响,发现无论在长期还是短期中,城镇居民收入差距的扩大都会显著降低居民的平均消费倾向。从收入来源来看,我国目前居民的财产性收入差距最大,同时,财产性收入的增加可以显著的增加消费。(2)制度变迁中的不确定性对城镇居民的消费决策具有较大影响。基于城镇居民储蓄调查的问卷结果,本文选择1999年4季度到2009年4季度的相关数据对我国城镇居民面临的不确定性进行了测度,并通过建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数分析了收入不确定性、支出不确定性和金融资产收益不确定性对城镇居民消费的影响。(3)分析了流动性约束对居民消费跨期选择的影响。基于Shea提出的检验流动性约束的非对称性方法,通过建立变系数面板数据模型分析了城镇居民不同收入阶层所面临的流动性约束,同时还检验了“短视行为”和“前景理论”。验证结果表明,低收入者面临较强的流动性约束,而个人消费信贷的发展可以缓解流动性约束。最后,从三个方面提出了相关的政策性建议,以期引导居民的消费行为,促进居民消费需求的增加,保证经济的可持续发展。
In about 30 years after reform and open policy was carried out, China has made great achievement on economic construction. Along with the increasing of residents income, there are new changes appearing in consumption content, consumption structure and consumption way. Consumption has a greater influence on the development of economy. However, from 1980s,“unusual”phenomenon has appeared in our consumption domain: from macroscopic level, it reflects that social income distribution rate is reducing continuously, consumption rate is lower; from microscopic level, it shows that residents’consumption tendency is reducing in a large scale, especially after 1990s, the residents consumption tendency is reducing obviously. Now consumption power insufficiency has become an important factor to restrict our economic development. How to enhance residents’consumption to lead economic increasing is a focal point concerned by all people in society.“125th-year”also takes expanding domestic demand as a central problem of economic development. Above all, the research about residents’consumption, especially about the factors that restrict residents’consumption demand, is of great importance toward enlarging demand and quickening the transformation of economic development style.
This dissertation takes economic system vicissitude as background and urban household consumption as the object of study. Based on the research result that exists nowadays, it reviews changes of residents consumption demand in China systematically. It analyzes the influence made by residents’consumption upon economic development and the main problem exists in residents’consumption. It is based on introducing and analyzing consumption theory, from income distribution, uncertainty and liquidity constraint aspects, uses different kinds of measurement to analyze and examine the factors that influence residents’consumption, at last it gives advices to solute residents’consumption demand. Main content and conclusion are as follows:
In chapter two and three, at first, this dissertation organizes evolution and development of western consumption theory near modern age and it makes a brief narration of the research report about consumption problem in China and abroad. While it utilizes western consumption theory, it also analyzes consumption problem combined with China’s national condition. Then reviews urban household consumption changes after reform and open policy, from consumption level and consumption structure these two aspects it illustrates our urban household consumption evolution. After reform and opening up, our urban household consumption level and life quality have improved significantly, along with the development of social economy, urban household consumption structure is escalating. It means changing from survival consumption to enjoyable and developing consumption. However, from1990s, our urban household consumption tendency is reducing, deposit tendency is rising, consumption structure upgrade is slower and consumption demand is insufficiency. On the other hand, from macro perspective aspect it investigates the influence urban household consumption puts on economic development; analyzing urban household consumption’s stimulating effect to economic increasing. Study found that household consumption in China's contribution to economic growth mainly from urban residents, the reason is the continuous progress of urbanization in recent years. Again, this paper, based on state space model of the variable parameters to verify the growth rate of urban household consumption growth rate of the dynamic effects on the economy, and concluded that: changes in urban household consumption is influencing the economic growth gradually, investment demand Changes’influencing for economic growth is weakened, promoting the urban household consumption demand is good for long-term economic growth and stability. Finally, the paper from the income distribution, uncertainty in the institutional change and liquidity constraints these three perspectives analyzes the factors of urban household demand expansion and buried effective countermeasures Under a hint for thinking consumption household demand.
Chapter four, first from theoretical aspect it analysis the income distribution‘s impact on residents consumption, and summarizes the existing methods of measuring inequality in income distribution. Second, based on the history of the income distribution system reform process, it uses urban residents income through packet data and the income sources from different provinces, urban residents in China were calculated by Gini index and Theil index, income distribution gap is divided into the gap between groups and between group in different regions, it uses the relevant index of income distribution reflects the perspective of income distribution inequality of our current situation. Finally, the ARDL model test income distribution gap’s impact on the urban consumption tendency; at the same time, panel data model is used to analyze different income sources’impact on urban household consumption. The results show that the widening of income distribution gap is the important reason of decline of average urban household consumption tendency, of which the biggest difference is property income, property income and wage income gap show an expanding tendency year by year.
Chapter five, it talks about influence based on the precautionary saving theory of uncertainty on consumer behavior. First, it focuses on the economic system exchanging process; urban residents in China during the changing are facing the two uncertainties (the uncertainty of income, expenditure uncertainty). According to the People's Bank of China's urban household savings survey results, by selecting the appropriate indicators measure a variety of urban residents who are facing the uncertainty. Using 1999-2009 quarterly data, it establishes VAR model and analyzes the uncertainties’impact on urban household consumption. The results shows that since the 4th quarter of 1999, income uncertainty and uncertainty expenditure increases motive urban residents to have a strong precautionary saving intention, thereby it can reduce consumption; uncertainty in the expenditure of education and living expenses has a greater impact on consumer demand, but little effect on health care expense. This phenomenon shows that in China medical insurance system reform has achieved some success in recent years; from the financial assets income uncertainty point of view, the rate of urban residents in China had some income effect, and stock return volatility’s impact on consumption of urban residents in China is mainly the substitution effect.
Chapter six, it first analyzes liquidity constraint’s influence on residents’consumption and explain the“excess sensitivity”and“myopic behavior”of residents’consumption, then analysis the liquidity constraint from the consumption credit point of view. At last, it takes the test model of liquidity constraint by Shea in 1995 and builds the SUR model by using the data from 1986 to 2009 to empirically test the liquidity constraint of different income stratum. The result shows that the lower the income is, the more excess sensitive consumer is. Myopic behavior generally exists in our urban residents. Before 1996, China's low-income groups faced strong liquidity constraints, middle-income and high income groups’consumption behavior corresponded to the“prospect theory”. After 1996, the development of individual consumption credit greatly eases the liquidity constraints, the lowest income stratum’s consumer behavior also correspond to the“prospect theory”.
Finally, on the base of the above, it proposes policy recommendations to promote the consumption of urban residents demand: speeding up financial reforms, giving full play to the tax regulation of the income distribution; deepening the reform of the income distribution system in monopoly industries, reducing the income distribution gap between industries; enhancing anti-corruption vigor, banning illegal income and gray income; improving the social security system, stabilizing future expectations to reduce residents’precautionary savings motive; improving the financial system, vigorously develop the consumer credit market; easing liquidity constraints of urban residents, release consumption potential effectively.
本文首先对已有的消费理论和研究文献进行了回顾和梳理,然后分析了改革开放以来我国城镇居民消费需求的变动及其对经济增长的影响。研究中发现,稳定和提高城镇居民消费需求有利于经济的长期稳定增长,但目前我国城镇居民的消费却存在消费倾向下降、消费结构升级缓慢等问题。所以,本文基于不同的消费理论分别从三个角度分析了制约我国城镇居民消费需求扩大的因素:(1)从收入分配状况角度入手,通过建立ARDL模型和边界检验法分析了收入分配差距对平均消费倾向的影响,发现无论在长期还是短期中,城镇居民收入差距的扩大都会显著降低居民的平均消费倾向。从收入来源来看,我国目前居民的财产性收入差距最大,同时,财产性收入的增加可以显著的增加消费。(2)制度变迁中的不确定性对城镇居民的消费决策具有较大影响。基于城镇居民储蓄调查的问卷结果,本文选择1999年4季度到2009年4季度的相关数据对我国城镇居民面临的不确定性进行了测度,并通过建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数分析了收入不确定性、支出不确定性和金融资产收益不确定性对城镇居民消费的影响。(3)分析了流动性约束对居民消费跨期选择的影响。基于Shea提出的检验流动性约束的非对称性方法,通过建立变系数面板数据模型分析了城镇居民不同收入阶层所面临的流动性约束,同时还检验了“短视行为”和“前景理论”。验证结果表明,低收入者面临较强的流动性约束,而个人消费信贷的发展可以缓解流动性约束。最后,从三个方面提出了相关的政策性建议,以期引导居民的消费行为,促进居民消费需求的增加,保证经济的可持续发展。
In about 30 years after reform and open policy was carried out, China has made great achievement on economic construction. Along with the increasing of residents income, there are new changes appearing in consumption content, consumption structure and consumption way. Consumption has a greater influence on the development of economy. However, from 1980s,“unusual”phenomenon has appeared in our consumption domain: from macroscopic level, it reflects that social income distribution rate is reducing continuously, consumption rate is lower; from microscopic level, it shows that residents’consumption tendency is reducing in a large scale, especially after 1990s, the residents consumption tendency is reducing obviously. Now consumption power insufficiency has become an important factor to restrict our economic development. How to enhance residents’consumption to lead economic increasing is a focal point concerned by all people in society.“125th-year”also takes expanding domestic demand as a central problem of economic development. Above all, the research about residents’consumption, especially about the factors that restrict residents’consumption demand, is of great importance toward enlarging demand and quickening the transformation of economic development style.
This dissertation takes economic system vicissitude as background and urban household consumption as the object of study. Based on the research result that exists nowadays, it reviews changes of residents consumption demand in China systematically. It analyzes the influence made by residents’consumption upon economic development and the main problem exists in residents’consumption. It is based on introducing and analyzing consumption theory, from income distribution, uncertainty and liquidity constraint aspects, uses different kinds of measurement to analyze and examine the factors that influence residents’consumption, at last it gives advices to solute residents’consumption demand. Main content and conclusion are as follows:
In chapter two and three, at first, this dissertation organizes evolution and development of western consumption theory near modern age and it makes a brief narration of the research report about consumption problem in China and abroad. While it utilizes western consumption theory, it also analyzes consumption problem combined with China’s national condition. Then reviews urban household consumption changes after reform and open policy, from consumption level and consumption structure these two aspects it illustrates our urban household consumption evolution. After reform and opening up, our urban household consumption level and life quality have improved significantly, along with the development of social economy, urban household consumption structure is escalating. It means changing from survival consumption to enjoyable and developing consumption. However, from1990s, our urban household consumption tendency is reducing, deposit tendency is rising, consumption structure upgrade is slower and consumption demand is insufficiency. On the other hand, from macro perspective aspect it investigates the influence urban household consumption puts on economic development; analyzing urban household consumption’s stimulating effect to economic increasing. Study found that household consumption in China's contribution to economic growth mainly from urban residents, the reason is the continuous progress of urbanization in recent years. Again, this paper, based on state space model of the variable parameters to verify the growth rate of urban household consumption growth rate of the dynamic effects on the economy, and concluded that: changes in urban household consumption is influencing the economic growth gradually, investment demand Changes’influencing for economic growth is weakened, promoting the urban household consumption demand is good for long-term economic growth and stability. Finally, the paper from the income distribution, uncertainty in the institutional change and liquidity constraints these three perspectives analyzes the factors of urban household demand expansion and buried effective countermeasures Under a hint for thinking consumption household demand.
Chapter four, first from theoretical aspect it analysis the income distribution‘s impact on residents consumption, and summarizes the existing methods of measuring inequality in income distribution. Second, based on the history of the income distribution system reform process, it uses urban residents income through packet data and the income sources from different provinces, urban residents in China were calculated by Gini index and Theil index, income distribution gap is divided into the gap between groups and between group in different regions, it uses the relevant index of income distribution reflects the perspective of income distribution inequality of our current situation. Finally, the ARDL model test income distribution gap’s impact on the urban consumption tendency; at the same time, panel data model is used to analyze different income sources’impact on urban household consumption. The results show that the widening of income distribution gap is the important reason of decline of average urban household consumption tendency, of which the biggest difference is property income, property income and wage income gap show an expanding tendency year by year.
Chapter five, it talks about influence based on the precautionary saving theory of uncertainty on consumer behavior. First, it focuses on the economic system exchanging process; urban residents in China during the changing are facing the two uncertainties (the uncertainty of income, expenditure uncertainty). According to the People's Bank of China's urban household savings survey results, by selecting the appropriate indicators measure a variety of urban residents who are facing the uncertainty. Using 1999-2009 quarterly data, it establishes VAR model and analyzes the uncertainties’impact on urban household consumption. The results shows that since the 4th quarter of 1999, income uncertainty and uncertainty expenditure increases motive urban residents to have a strong precautionary saving intention, thereby it can reduce consumption; uncertainty in the expenditure of education and living expenses has a greater impact on consumer demand, but little effect on health care expense. This phenomenon shows that in China medical insurance system reform has achieved some success in recent years; from the financial assets income uncertainty point of view, the rate of urban residents in China had some income effect, and stock return volatility’s impact on consumption of urban residents in China is mainly the substitution effect.
Chapter six, it first analyzes liquidity constraint’s influence on residents’consumption and explain the“excess sensitivity”and“myopic behavior”of residents’consumption, then analysis the liquidity constraint from the consumption credit point of view. At last, it takes the test model of liquidity constraint by Shea in 1995 and builds the SUR model by using the data from 1986 to 2009 to empirically test the liquidity constraint of different income stratum. The result shows that the lower the income is, the more excess sensitive consumer is. Myopic behavior generally exists in our urban residents. Before 1996, China's low-income groups faced strong liquidity constraints, middle-income and high income groups’consumption behavior corresponded to the“prospect theory”. After 1996, the development of individual consumption credit greatly eases the liquidity constraints, the lowest income stratum’s consumer behavior also correspond to the“prospect theory”.
Finally, on the base of the above, it proposes policy recommendations to promote the consumption of urban residents demand: speeding up financial reforms, giving full play to the tax regulation of the income distribution; deepening the reform of the income distribution system in monopoly industries, reducing the income distribution gap between industries; enhancing anti-corruption vigor, banning illegal income and gray income; improving the social security system, stabilizing future expectations to reduce residents’precautionary savings motive; improving the financial system, vigorously develop the consumer credit market; easing liquidity constraints of urban residents, release consumption potential effectively.
引文
①中国人民银行城镇居民调查问卷的数据均来自于《中国城镇居民储蓄状况调查与研究》,中国金融出版社,2010
②用城镇居民消费价格指数的月度环比和月度同比数据,计算得到以2000年12月价格为基期的我国城镇居民消费价格指数定基月度数据,用季度内月份的城镇居民消费价格定基指数的平均值作为城镇居民消费价格指数的定基季度数据。数据均来自于中经网统计数据库。
③本文利用《中经网数据库》公布的城镇居民居住价格指数的月度同比和环比数据计算出以2000年12月为基期的定基城镇居民价格指数月度数据,取每个季度的月份平均值作为定基的城镇居民价格指数季度数据,进而计算出城镇居民价格指数季度同比数据。本文其他的定基价格指数季度数据计算方法与此相同。
④房屋销售价格指数季度同比数据来自于RESSET金融研究数据库。
⑥项俊波:《结构经济学——从结构视角看中国经济》,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2009年出版,116页。
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②用城镇居民消费价格指数的月度环比和月度同比数据,计算得到以2000年12月价格为基期的我国城镇居民消费价格指数定基月度数据,用季度内月份的城镇居民消费价格定基指数的平均值作为城镇居民消费价格指数的定基季度数据。数据均来自于中经网统计数据库。
③本文利用《中经网数据库》公布的城镇居民居住价格指数的月度同比和环比数据计算出以2000年12月为基期的定基城镇居民价格指数月度数据,取每个季度的月份平均值作为定基的城镇居民价格指数季度数据,进而计算出城镇居民价格指数季度同比数据。本文其他的定基价格指数季度数据计算方法与此相同。
④房屋销售价格指数季度同比数据来自于RESSET金融研究数据库。
⑥项俊波:《结构经济学——从结构视角看中国经济》,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2009年出版,116页。
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