国际智力回流的技术扩散效应研究
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摘要
随着经济全球化的深入发展,世界各国综合国力的竞争,归根到底是各国人才的竞争。一国能否持续快速发展,很大程度上取决于其高素质人才存量的多寡,以及这些人才能否得到充分合理的开发、利用与管理。人力资本,尤其是高能力、高素质的人力资本作为一国经济发展不可或缺的要素,正成为各国竞相争夺的宝贵资源。世界移民报告显示,截至2010年,全世界约有2.1亿人在出生国以外工作,地球上每35人中就有1人是移民,而每10名受过高等教育的移民中就有6名来自发展中国家和地区。在发展中国家与发达国家人才资源拥有量存在着极大差距的同时,造成发展中国家大量人才外流甚至流失,这已成为制约发展中国家经济社会发展的重要“瓶颈”。
20世纪80、90年代起,全球性海外人才回流现象开始大量出现。比如亚洲四小龙之一的韩国在进入20世纪80年代后,其外流人才纷纷回国,特别是90年代以后,人才回归率达60%,归国人才在韩国创新型国家建设中发挥了先锋队作用。中国将有国外学习或者工作经验的学成回国留学人员称为海归,据中国国家留学基金委统计,改革开放以来,留学回国人员总数达81.84万人,有72.02%的留学人员学成后选择回国发展,他们对中国科教文卫事业的发展做出了突出贡献。
作为国际智力回流的主体,海外留学归国人员是一国技术进步的重要推动力。本文基于国际智力回流的视角,在人力资本异质性的开放经济框架内,将国际智力回流引入生产函数,从理论上探讨了智力回流与回流国技术进步的关系。在理论分析的基础上,本文进一步构造中国智力回流指标,将其引入国际研发溢出的计量模型,利用中国省际面板数据模型分析海归对中国不同地区技术进步的影响。检验结果表明海归技术溢出效应显著,但在我国不同地区间具有显著的差异性,并且在使用多个工具变量解决变量内生性问题后,该结论依然稳健。本文进一步运用Hansen(1999)提出的门限检验方法对影响海归技术扩散效应的若干因素及其门限特征进行检验,并从财政收入、经济发展水平、科研投入水平、人力资本状况以及金融市场效率等方面测算了引发海归积极技术外溢效应的门限水平。最后,根据实证结果提出吸引海外人才回流的政策建议。
Comprehensively along with the knowledge economy, the person with the high quality becomes the resources of strategic importance to the economic development and international competition in the21st century for every country. In some way, whether a country can develop persistently and fleetly depends on whether the country have plenty of high-tech talents as well as whether these talents are properly developed, made use of, deployed and managed. Human capital, especially the high-quality human capital as an essential element of economic development for a country, is becoming a valuable resource for competing countries. World Migration Report shows that there are around210million people working outside their countries of birth on Earth as of2010, where1in every35people is immigrant, and six people are from developing countries and regions among every10highly educated migrants. Adds in the global scope talented person's shortage, developed countries attract a lot of talented people from developing nations. This has become the "bottle-neck" that restricts the development of our country's economy and society.
From the80s and90s of twentieth Century, the phenomenon of global overseas backflow began to appear in great quantities. Such as one of the East Asian tigers Korea in nineteen eighties, the brain drainers went back to the motherland in succession, especially after90time, the returning rate reached60%, and the returned talents played a vanguard role in innovation-oriented national construction of Korea. We called people who have the experience of studying or working abroad in China returnees. According to the China Scholarship Council statistics, the total number of returnees in China has reached632200since "the cub" originated from Qing Dynasty to the year of2010, they have made great contributions to the development of China's health, science and education.
As the main part of international intellectual return, returnees are important forces for their home countries'technological progress. With the assumption of workers'heterogeneous talents, this paper analyses the effects of returnees on technology innovation by introducing the brain backflow into the innovation function within the framework of an open economy. Furthermore, by constructing the indicator of brain backflow and introducing returnees into the international R&D spillovers econometric model, we test the technological progress effects of returnees in various regions of China by using Chinese provincial panel data. The results show that returnees have played an important role in technological progress in various regions of China, but there are differences in the degree of contribution, and the conclusion remains robust after the use of multiple tools to solve problems of endogenous variables. On this basis, we set a threshold model to measure the threshold level of local fiscal revenue, economic development, scientific research level, human capital and financial market efficiency which can cause positive spillover effects of returnees. Finally, according to empirical results, we propose policy recommendations to attract talents backflow.
20世纪80、90年代起,全球性海外人才回流现象开始大量出现。比如亚洲四小龙之一的韩国在进入20世纪80年代后,其外流人才纷纷回国,特别是90年代以后,人才回归率达60%,归国人才在韩国创新型国家建设中发挥了先锋队作用。中国将有国外学习或者工作经验的学成回国留学人员称为海归,据中国国家留学基金委统计,改革开放以来,留学回国人员总数达81.84万人,有72.02%的留学人员学成后选择回国发展,他们对中国科教文卫事业的发展做出了突出贡献。
作为国际智力回流的主体,海外留学归国人员是一国技术进步的重要推动力。本文基于国际智力回流的视角,在人力资本异质性的开放经济框架内,将国际智力回流引入生产函数,从理论上探讨了智力回流与回流国技术进步的关系。在理论分析的基础上,本文进一步构造中国智力回流指标,将其引入国际研发溢出的计量模型,利用中国省际面板数据模型分析海归对中国不同地区技术进步的影响。检验结果表明海归技术溢出效应显著,但在我国不同地区间具有显著的差异性,并且在使用多个工具变量解决变量内生性问题后,该结论依然稳健。本文进一步运用Hansen(1999)提出的门限检验方法对影响海归技术扩散效应的若干因素及其门限特征进行检验,并从财政收入、经济发展水平、科研投入水平、人力资本状况以及金融市场效率等方面测算了引发海归积极技术外溢效应的门限水平。最后,根据实证结果提出吸引海外人才回流的政策建议。
Comprehensively along with the knowledge economy, the person with the high quality becomes the resources of strategic importance to the economic development and international competition in the21st century for every country. In some way, whether a country can develop persistently and fleetly depends on whether the country have plenty of high-tech talents as well as whether these talents are properly developed, made use of, deployed and managed. Human capital, especially the high-quality human capital as an essential element of economic development for a country, is becoming a valuable resource for competing countries. World Migration Report shows that there are around210million people working outside their countries of birth on Earth as of2010, where1in every35people is immigrant, and six people are from developing countries and regions among every10highly educated migrants. Adds in the global scope talented person's shortage, developed countries attract a lot of talented people from developing nations. This has become the "bottle-neck" that restricts the development of our country's economy and society.
From the80s and90s of twentieth Century, the phenomenon of global overseas backflow began to appear in great quantities. Such as one of the East Asian tigers Korea in nineteen eighties, the brain drainers went back to the motherland in succession, especially after90time, the returning rate reached60%, and the returned talents played a vanguard role in innovation-oriented national construction of Korea. We called people who have the experience of studying or working abroad in China returnees. According to the China Scholarship Council statistics, the total number of returnees in China has reached632200since "the cub" originated from Qing Dynasty to the year of2010, they have made great contributions to the development of China's health, science and education.
As the main part of international intellectual return, returnees are important forces for their home countries'technological progress. With the assumption of workers'heterogeneous talents, this paper analyses the effects of returnees on technology innovation by introducing the brain backflow into the innovation function within the framework of an open economy. Furthermore, by constructing the indicator of brain backflow and introducing returnees into the international R&D spillovers econometric model, we test the technological progress effects of returnees in various regions of China by using Chinese provincial panel data. The results show that returnees have played an important role in technological progress in various regions of China, but there are differences in the degree of contribution, and the conclusion remains robust after the use of multiple tools to solve problems of endogenous variables. On this basis, we set a threshold model to measure the threshold level of local fiscal revenue, economic development, scientific research level, human capital and financial market efficiency which can cause positive spillover effects of returnees. Finally, according to empirical results, we propose policy recommendations to attract talents backflow.
引文
19 王辉耀,《海归时代》,北京：中央编译出版社,2005年；《国家战略—人才改变世界》,北京：人民出版社,2010年。
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[2]Adda, J., and C.Dustmann,2006, "A Dynamic Model of Return Migration", IZA Ninth Summer School Paper.
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[6]Audretsch, D.B., and M.P. Feldman,1996, "R&D Spillovers and the Geography of Innovation and Production", American Economic Review, No.86.
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