我国房地产金融政策及实效研究
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摘要
房地产业作为资本密集型产业,与金融政策变化关系密切。随着我国房地产市场的发展,房地产业对金融政策的敏感度不断提高,金融政策已成为调控房地产业发展的重要工具。正确的房地产金融政策决策是建立在对前期的金融政策效果的正确评价和对当前房地产市场形势及其未来走势的正确分析预测基础之上的。因此制定行之有效的房地产金融政策的第一步就是对前期金融政策的制订和实施效果进行总结和评价。本文所做的正是这一工作:对前期的房地产金融政策的力度及效果等进行实证研究,希望找出其成功经验和不足之处,为制定更完善的房地产金融政策,指导和调控我国的房地产市场的发展服务。
在文章的第一部分,笔者在系统研究相关文献的基础上,总结了房地产周期和房地产金融政策的关系,并从理论上提出了房地产金融政策影响房地产周期的途径,包括:央行的货币供应政策、调控政策、监管政策、利率政策和商业银行的信贷政策等等.接着,分三个阶段介绍和分析了90年代以来我国的房地产金融政策的内容和实效,重点是98年以来两个阶段的房地产金融政策的实效.
第二部分,笔者对我国房地产金融政策进行了总结与反思。我国的房地产金融政策变化的趋势表现在:中央银行对于房地产市场走向的关注度日益提高;房地产金融政策正逐步改变其力度和结构;房地产金融调控政策正走向预防性、间接化和多元化。影响房地产金融政策效应的因素有其自身的问题和外界的影响。自身的问题包括政策缺乏一致性,缺少“靶向”准确的调控工具,对地区差异和结构性差异重视不够。外界的不利因素主要有:政府的双重角色;银行的过度支持和公众对房地产市场的心理预期。最后,总结了我国房地产金融政策的经验教训:实施时机把握不准;行政手段过多;制度设计不完善。
在论文的最后两部分,结合我国房地产发展的实际,提出了完善我国房地产金融政策及增强其实效的建议。完善房地产金融政策的建议有:坚持金融支持房地产市场发展的基本方向;注重长效机制,保持政策的连贯性;选择合适的金融政策调控方式、实施的时机和力度;注重“地区差异”和“结构性差异”。
增强我国房地产金融政策实效的配套措施包括:改变地方政府的双重身份;拓宽投资渠道;加强各种政策之间的协调;加强房地产交易市场和金融市场基础设施建设;健全房地产金融法律环境和建立健全房地产市场监测、预警和稳定机制等等。
As a capital-intensive industry, the real estate industry has a close relation with financial policy. With the development of our real estate market, the real estate industry's sensitive to financial policy raises continuously, the financial policy has become an important tool to control the development of the real estate industry. The establishment of right real estate financial policies is based on the right evaluation of the early financial policy effectives and forecasting of the future trend .So the first step to set up a valid real estate financial policy is to carry on summary and evaluate to the early financial policies. What this text does is exactly this work. The writer carries on a substantial evidence research on the early real estate financial policies, hoping to find out its strengths and weakness, in order to draw up a more perfect real estate financial policy to guide and adjust the real estate market.
In the first part of the article, on the study of related documents, the writer summarizes the relationship between the real estate financial policy and the real estate period, and puts forward the path that the real estate financial policies influence real estate period from the theories, including: credit policies, housing policies and supervision policies etc.. Next, the writer introduces and analyses the contents and real results of the real estate financial policy after 90's from four stages .the point is effectiveness of real estates financial policies of two stages over 1998 years.
In the second part, the writer carries on summary and introspects to the financial policy of our real estate. The trend of our real estate financial policy demonstrates in the following: the National Central Bank's concern toward real estate market alignment lives a benefit exaltation; the real estate financial policy changes its strength and structure gradually; the real estate financial policy adjusts to be heading, indirect and diversification. The factor that influences the real estate financial policy effect includes the problem of itself and the influence of the external world. The problem of itself includes: the policies lack consistency, the side effect leads greatly, valuing to region difference and structure difference are not enough. The disadvantageous factor of the external world mainly includes: The dual role of the government; Excessive support of banks and the mental expectation to real estate market of the public. Tallied up the experience preempts of our real estate financial policies finally: adjusting the empty opportune moment confidence prohibits; the administration means is excessive, the system design is not perfect.
In the last two parts, combining actual develops of our real estate, the writer puts forward some advice to perfect the financial policy and strengthen effect. The suggestions that perfect real estate financial policy includes: the basic direction insisted finance supporting the development of the real estate market; paying attention to a long effect mechanism and keeping the coherent of policy; choosing the suitable controlling opportunity; paying attention to "region difference" and "structure difference".
The integrations which strengthen the financial policy results includes, changing the dual identity of local government; opening wide investment outlet; strengthening the coordination of various policies: improving real estate financial law environment and building up sound monitor, warn and stability mechanism。
在文章的第一部分,笔者在系统研究相关文献的基础上,总结了房地产周期和房地产金融政策的关系,并从理论上提出了房地产金融政策影响房地产周期的途径,包括:央行的货币供应政策、调控政策、监管政策、利率政策和商业银行的信贷政策等等.接着,分三个阶段介绍和分析了90年代以来我国的房地产金融政策的内容和实效,重点是98年以来两个阶段的房地产金融政策的实效.
第二部分,笔者对我国房地产金融政策进行了总结与反思。我国的房地产金融政策变化的趋势表现在:中央银行对于房地产市场走向的关注度日益提高;房地产金融政策正逐步改变其力度和结构;房地产金融调控政策正走向预防性、间接化和多元化。影响房地产金融政策效应的因素有其自身的问题和外界的影响。自身的问题包括政策缺乏一致性,缺少“靶向”准确的调控工具,对地区差异和结构性差异重视不够。外界的不利因素主要有:政府的双重角色;银行的过度支持和公众对房地产市场的心理预期。最后,总结了我国房地产金融政策的经验教训:实施时机把握不准;行政手段过多;制度设计不完善。
在论文的最后两部分,结合我国房地产发展的实际,提出了完善我国房地产金融政策及增强其实效的建议。完善房地产金融政策的建议有:坚持金融支持房地产市场发展的基本方向;注重长效机制,保持政策的连贯性;选择合适的金融政策调控方式、实施的时机和力度;注重“地区差异”和“结构性差异”。
增强我国房地产金融政策实效的配套措施包括:改变地方政府的双重身份;拓宽投资渠道;加强各种政策之间的协调;加强房地产交易市场和金融市场基础设施建设;健全房地产金融法律环境和建立健全房地产市场监测、预警和稳定机制等等。
As a capital-intensive industry, the real estate industry has a close relation with financial policy. With the development of our real estate market, the real estate industry's sensitive to financial policy raises continuously, the financial policy has become an important tool to control the development of the real estate industry. The establishment of right real estate financial policies is based on the right evaluation of the early financial policy effectives and forecasting of the future trend .So the first step to set up a valid real estate financial policy is to carry on summary and evaluate to the early financial policies. What this text does is exactly this work. The writer carries on a substantial evidence research on the early real estate financial policies, hoping to find out its strengths and weakness, in order to draw up a more perfect real estate financial policy to guide and adjust the real estate market.
In the first part of the article, on the study of related documents, the writer summarizes the relationship between the real estate financial policy and the real estate period, and puts forward the path that the real estate financial policies influence real estate period from the theories, including: credit policies, housing policies and supervision policies etc.. Next, the writer introduces and analyses the contents and real results of the real estate financial policy after 90's from four stages .the point is effectiveness of real estates financial policies of two stages over 1998 years.
In the second part, the writer carries on summary and introspects to the financial policy of our real estate. The trend of our real estate financial policy demonstrates in the following: the National Central Bank's concern toward real estate market alignment lives a benefit exaltation; the real estate financial policy changes its strength and structure gradually; the real estate financial policy adjusts to be heading, indirect and diversification. The factor that influences the real estate financial policy effect includes the problem of itself and the influence of the external world. The problem of itself includes: the policies lack consistency, the side effect leads greatly, valuing to region difference and structure difference are not enough. The disadvantageous factor of the external world mainly includes: The dual role of the government; Excessive support of banks and the mental expectation to real estate market of the public. Tallied up the experience preempts of our real estate financial policies finally: adjusting the empty opportune moment confidence prohibits; the administration means is excessive, the system design is not perfect.
In the last two parts, combining actual develops of our real estate, the writer puts forward some advice to perfect the financial policy and strengthen effect. The suggestions that perfect real estate financial policy includes: the basic direction insisted finance supporting the development of the real estate market; paying attention to a long effect mechanism and keeping the coherent of policy; choosing the suitable controlling opportunity; paying attention to "region difference" and "structure difference".
The integrations which strengthen the financial policy results includes, changing the dual identity of local government; opening wide investment outlet; strengthening the coordination of various policies: improving real estate financial law environment and building up sound monitor, warn and stability mechanism。
引文
[1]罗运民,张兴智.马克思政治经济学原理[M].第 2 版.北京:光明日报出版社,1999.45-47.
[2]李聪明.我国房地产周期波动与宏观经济关系研究[J].特区经济,2005(3):269-270.
[3]Stephen A. Pyhrr, Stephen E. Roulac, Waldo L. Born. Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications f r Investors and portfolio Managers in the Global Economy[J] .Journal of Real Estate Research, 1999(18):17-68.
[4]何国钊,曹振良,李晟.中国房地产周期研究[J].经济研究,1996(12 ):51-77.
[5] 谭 刚 . 房 地 产 周 期 波 动 — 理 论 、 实 证 与 政 策 分 析 [M]. 北 京 : 经 济 管 理 出 版社,2001.150-188.
[6]王文群.试论我国房地产周期波动与当前宏观调控政策取向[J].江西社会科学,2005(12),89-92.
[7]Mueller,G.R,S.Laposa.Rent Distributions Under Alternative Market Cycles,Paper presented atthe Twelfth Annual Meeting of the American Real Estate Society[M].South Lake Tahoe,1996.28-29.
[8]Case K E.The Real Estate Cycle and the Economy: Consequences of the Massachusetts Boom 1984-87[J]. Urban Studies, 1992,29(2): 171-183.
[9]房地产周期研究课题组.中国房地产周期波动[J].财贸经济,2002(7):26-33.
[10]金一鸣,徐鑫鑫.提高存款准备金率对房地产市场的影响及对策[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006(6):581-583.
[11]Chen Xiang.Interest Rate Adjustment: Economic Background and Impact on Rea Estate Market [J]. New Finance,2005(3):56-64.
[12]郁文达.房地产周期和金融政策[J].中国房地产金融,2003(9):8-12.
[13]黄燕,贾俊利,石秋霞.我国房地产金融政策一览[J].中国房地信息,2004(5):24-25.
[14]曲波,谢经荣,王玮.中国房地产周期波动的评介与探析[J].中国房地产金融,2003(2):10-13.
[15]伍旭川,汪守宏.中国房地产发展的历史路径[J].银行家,2005(7):94-95.
[16]胡彬.制度变迁中的中国房地产业[M].第 2 版.上海:上海财经出版社,2002.180-185.
[17]刘学成.中国房地产业周期波动理论与实证研究[D].天津:南开大学经济学院,2001.
[18]中国2003年房地产开发投资和商品房销售情况统计[M].中华人民共和国年鉴2004,http://www.bjinfobank.com。.
[19]齐淮钧.我国房地产市场发展状况分析[J].市场周刊,2004(9):44-49.
[20]谢家瑾.当前房地产市场与房价问题[J].城市开发,2005(4):4-9.
[22] WENG Fa-chun. The New Real Estate Policies and the Trend of Development of the Real Estate Market in Fu zhou. FUJIAN GEOGRAPHY[J],2005(4):22-29.
[23] WANG Jia-ting,ZHANG Huan-zhao.Positive Analysis that the Interest Rate Change Influences to the Real Estate Market in China[J].Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics,2006(1):54-59.
[24]徐琳.从中国2004～2005年的房地产政策来分析房地产的定价机制[J].商场现代化,2005(10):254-254.
[25]蒋家胜.我国货币政策的房地产价格传导机制研究[J].西华大学学报,2006(5):101-102.
[26]巴曙松. 房地产业发展与金融政策:发展脉络和趋势[J].福建金融,2005(9):4-10.
[27]童适平.中央银行学[M].第2版.上海:复旦大学出版社,2004.31-32.
[28]房淮,赵路兴,周江.房地产业宏观调控效果与前瞻[J].中国金融,2004(15):14-16.
[29]沈超群.房产新政中房地产金融调控的思考[J].法制与经济,2006(2):56-57.
[30]邹瑾.我国房地产金融政策的回顾与反思[J].商场现代化,2005(11),153-153.
[31]中国人民银行研究局课题组.中国房地产发展与金融支持[J].金时网,2004-3-13:1-2.
[32]李世平,孙寒冰,江美丽.对当前房地产政策的评价与思考[J] .市场分析,2005(8):182-183.
[33]王建.国家房地产政策的经济学思考[J].大众科技,2005(8):129-129.
[34]中国人民银行武汉分行金融研究处课题组.房地产商、购房者和商业银行“理性转向"--关于个人住房信贷政策调整后的政策效应的调查与思考[J].经济研究参考,2005(62):50-57.
[35]梁荣.对改善当前我国房地产金融政策法规的思考[J].现代经济探讨,2004(6),53-57.
[2]李聪明.我国房地产周期波动与宏观经济关系研究[J].特区经济,2005(3):269-270.
[3]Stephen A. Pyhrr, Stephen E. Roulac, Waldo L. Born. Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications f r Investors and portfolio Managers in the Global Economy[J] .Journal of Real Estate Research, 1999(18):17-68.
[4]何国钊,曹振良,李晟.中国房地产周期研究[J].经济研究,1996(12 ):51-77.
[5] 谭 刚 . 房 地 产 周 期 波 动 — 理 论 、 实 证 与 政 策 分 析 [M]. 北 京 : 经 济 管 理 出 版社,2001.150-188.
[6]王文群.试论我国房地产周期波动与当前宏观调控政策取向[J].江西社会科学,2005(12),89-92.
[7]Mueller,G.R,S.Laposa.Rent Distributions Under Alternative Market Cycles,Paper presented atthe Twelfth Annual Meeting of the American Real Estate Society[M].South Lake Tahoe,1996.28-29.
[8]Case K E.The Real Estate Cycle and the Economy: Consequences of the Massachusetts Boom 1984-87[J]. Urban Studies, 1992,29(2): 171-183.
[9]房地产周期研究课题组.中国房地产周期波动[J].财贸经济,2002(7):26-33.
[10]金一鸣,徐鑫鑫.提高存款准备金率对房地产市场的影响及对策[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006(6):581-583.
[11]Chen Xiang.Interest Rate Adjustment: Economic Background and Impact on Rea Estate Market [J]. New Finance,2005(3):56-64.
[12]郁文达.房地产周期和金融政策[J].中国房地产金融,2003(9):8-12.
[13]黄燕,贾俊利,石秋霞.我国房地产金融政策一览[J].中国房地信息,2004(5):24-25.
[14]曲波,谢经荣,王玮.中国房地产周期波动的评介与探析[J].中国房地产金融,2003(2):10-13.
[15]伍旭川,汪守宏.中国房地产发展的历史路径[J].银行家,2005(7):94-95.
[16]胡彬.制度变迁中的中国房地产业[M].第 2 版.上海:上海财经出版社,2002.180-185.
[17]刘学成.中国房地产业周期波动理论与实证研究[D].天津:南开大学经济学院,2001.
[18]中国2003年房地产开发投资和商品房销售情况统计[M].中华人民共和国年鉴2004,http://www.bjinfobank.com。.
[19]齐淮钧.我国房地产市场发展状况分析[J].市场周刊,2004(9):44-49.
[20]谢家瑾.当前房地产市场与房价问题[J].城市开发,2005(4):4-9.
[22] WENG Fa-chun. The New Real Estate Policies and the Trend of Development of the Real Estate Market in Fu zhou. FUJIAN GEOGRAPHY[J],2005(4):22-29.
[23] WANG Jia-ting,ZHANG Huan-zhao.Positive Analysis that the Interest Rate Change Influences to the Real Estate Market in China[J].Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics,2006(1):54-59.
[24]徐琳.从中国2004～2005年的房地产政策来分析房地产的定价机制[J].商场现代化,2005(10):254-254.
[25]蒋家胜.我国货币政策的房地产价格传导机制研究[J].西华大学学报,2006(5):101-102.
[26]巴曙松. 房地产业发展与金融政策:发展脉络和趋势[J].福建金融,2005(9):4-10.
[27]童适平.中央银行学[M].第2版.上海:复旦大学出版社,2004.31-32.
[28]房淮,赵路兴,周江.房地产业宏观调控效果与前瞻[J].中国金融,2004(15):14-16.
[29]沈超群.房产新政中房地产金融调控的思考[J].法制与经济,2006(2):56-57.
[30]邹瑾.我国房地产金融政策的回顾与反思[J].商场现代化,2005(11),153-153.
[31]中国人民银行研究局课题组.中国房地产发展与金融支持[J].金时网,2004-3-13:1-2.
[32]李世平,孙寒冰,江美丽.对当前房地产政策的评价与思考[J] .市场分析,2005(8):182-183.
[33]王建.国家房地产政策的经济学思考[J].大众科技,2005(8):129-129.
[34]中国人民银行武汉分行金融研究处课题组.房地产商、购房者和商业银行“理性转向"--关于个人住房信贷政策调整后的政策效应的调查与思考[J].经济研究参考,2005(62):50-57.
[35]梁荣.对改善当前我国房地产金融政策法规的思考[J].现代经济探讨,2004(6),53-57.
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