西北太平洋几类大尺度环流型对热带气旋生成的影响及其机理
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摘要
在夏季的热带西太平洋,低层环流的变化是控制西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成的最关键的因子之一。因此,西北太平洋上的低层大尺度环流型对TC生成的影响和机理是近年来台风气候学研究的重点问题之一。本文利用热带气旋最佳路径、全球再分析等资料,对热带气旋生成期间的大尺度环流型进行分类,通过资料分析、能量诊断和数值模拟方法,系统地研究了西北太平洋上空低层大尺度环流型对热带气旋生成的影响及其机理。得到的主要结论如下：
1.夏季西北太平洋上影响热带气旋生成的低层大尺度环流型主要有五种,分别是：切变型(MS),辐合型(MC),季风涡旋型(MG),倒槽型(RMT)和东风型(TE)。其中,MS和MC型是最主要的两种TC生成环流型,分别占了总数的32.5%和33.3%,这是由于这两种环流型为TC的生成提供了较好的涡度、散度等动力因子。通过诊断不同的大尺度环流型中正压能量转换的情况,可以发现MS、MC和RMT型的TC生成情况与正压能量转换的联系较好,这三类TC生成期间的动能增长主要来源于基本气流的辐合和切变；而对于在MG和TE型环流下生成的TC,正压能量转换导致的扰动动能增长与TC生成的区域并不一致,TC发展所需的动能增长可能与其他的机制有关。
2.西北太平洋热带气旋的生成位置和数量的年际变化明显受到西太平洋上空越赤道气流的影响。结果表明：热带气旋生成数量的年际变化与越赤道气流活动有较好的关系：在6-10月期间,热带西北太平洋中部和东南部的TC生成数量与125°E以及150°E的越赤道气流强度呈显著的正相关,而热带西太平洋北部(25°N以北)的TC生成频次与这两支越赤道气流的强度呈负相关。经过分析发现,越赤道气流通过影响西北太平洋季风槽的东伸和西退,导致西北太平洋上空呈现不同的切变与辐合环流型,从而影响热带气旋生成的位置和数量。
3.2004年和2006年夏季西北太平洋的大尺度环流有着比较明显的区别。因此,利用再分析资料对2004年和2006年7-9月的TC个例进行了较为细致的对比分析。其结果表明：2004年7-9月控制西北太平洋上空的环流型主要是MC型,其纬向风辐合主要位于西北太平洋的中、东侧,受其影响,此区域具有强的低层相对涡度,强的高层散度,小的垂直风切和充足的水汽等利于TC生成的环境因子,因此2004年7-9月在西北太平洋中、东侧上空TC生成较多；而2006年7-9月控制西北太平洋上空的环流型主要是MS型,其纬向风的经向切变主要位于西北太平洋西侧及南海上空,此区域具有上述利于TC生成的环境因子,因此,2006年7-9月西北太平洋两侧和南海上空TC生成较多。并且,利用滤波方法和正压能量转换理论分析了主要由MC型大尺度环流型控制的2004年8月1-30日与主要由MS型大尺度环流型控制的2006年9月10-26日西北太平洋上空对流层低层3-8d周期的涡旋波列及其动能倾向的演变,其结果也表明了2004年8月1-30日西北太平洋涡旋波列及其正涡旋动能倾向分布强且主要位于西北太平洋中、东侧上空,而2006年9月10-26日西北太平洋上涡旋波列及其正涡旋动能倾向分布比2004年8月1-30日弱且主要位于西北太平洋西侧和南海上空。
4.使用WRF区域气候模式成功模拟了2004年7月-9月的热带气旋活动情况。虽然由于物理过程或者热带气旋识别方法等问题,模拟的热带气旋相对实况较小,但是模式能够较好地抓住西北太平洋的大尺度环流型、3-8天扰动活动等情况,为TC的生成提供了良好的背景环境。
The variation of large-scale low-level circulation is one of the key factors in controlling the genesis of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in summer. Thus, it is one of the most important isuses that the influence and mechanism of low-level circulation patterns on tropical cyclogenesis. Using the best track and the reanalysis data, several typical large-scale patterns are identified during the period of tropical cyclogenesis. The influence of large-scale circulation patterns on tropical cyclogenesis and its mechanism is systematically explored in this dissertation by using data analysis, energy diagnosis, and numerical simulation. The follows are the main results:
(1) Present study classifies five large-scale circulation patterns in association with the tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the period1991-2010:the monsoon shear (MS), the monsoon confluence (MC), the reverse-oriented monsoon trough (RMT), the monsoon gyre (MG), and the trade wind easterlies (TE). The first three patterns account for about80%of tropical cyclogeneses. Through a diagnosis of energetics, it is found that the tropical cyclogenesis in the MS, MC, and RMT patterns is highly associated with the barotropic energy conversion. Analysis shows that the horizontal shear of basic zonal flow provides a favorable condition for the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) growth in the MS pattern. When a TC forms in the MC pattern, the horizontal shear and convergence of basic zonal flow are both important for the EKE growth. When the basic flow is the RMT pattern, in addition to the horizontal shear of basic flow, zonal and meridional wind convergence play an important role for tropical cyclogenesis over the WNP and the South China Sea, respectively. However, the barotropic energy conversion appears not to be a main mechanism for the EKE growth in the MG and TE patterns.
(2) The influence of the interannual variation of cross-equatorial flow (CEF) on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific is examined The results show that the number of TC formed over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific is well correlated with the variation of the cross-equatorial flows near125°E and150°E, and there is a significant negative correlation for the TC geneses over the northern part of the western North Pacific. The composite analyses show that during the strong-CEF-years, the variation of OLR, vertical wind shear between200-850hPa,850hPa relative vorticity and200hPa divergence are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific, vice versa. Moreover, it is also discussed from the barotropic energy conversion view that during the strong-CEF-years, the eastward of the monsoon trough leads to the rapid growth of the eddy kinetic energy over the western North Pacific, which is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis.
(3) The influence of large-scale circulations on tropical cyclogenesis during the year of2004and2006is analyzed. The result shows:the main large-scale pattern controls tropical cyclogenesis over the WNP is MC in July to September,2004, and is MS in the year of2006. The convergence of zonal wind, low-level vorticity, high-level divergence, vertical wind shear located at certain areas where tropical cyclone events occers. Moreover, the barotropic energy conversions during tropical cyclogenesis period in the year of2004and2006are calculated to analyze the3-8day wave train over the western North Pacific and the variation of eddy kinetic tendency. The result shows the large eddy kinetic growth areas are consistent with the tropical cyclone geneses in both2004and2006.
(4) By using WRF model, the tropical cyclogeneses during July,2004to September,2004are well simulated. Although the number of TC formation is smaller than those in the JTWC dataset, the features of large-scale circulation,3-8day bandpass filtered perturbation are well captured, which are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis.
1.夏季西北太平洋上影响热带气旋生成的低层大尺度环流型主要有五种,分别是：切变型(MS),辐合型(MC),季风涡旋型(MG),倒槽型(RMT)和东风型(TE)。其中,MS和MC型是最主要的两种TC生成环流型,分别占了总数的32.5%和33.3%,这是由于这两种环流型为TC的生成提供了较好的涡度、散度等动力因子。通过诊断不同的大尺度环流型中正压能量转换的情况,可以发现MS、MC和RMT型的TC生成情况与正压能量转换的联系较好,这三类TC生成期间的动能增长主要来源于基本气流的辐合和切变；而对于在MG和TE型环流下生成的TC,正压能量转换导致的扰动动能增长与TC生成的区域并不一致,TC发展所需的动能增长可能与其他的机制有关。
2.西北太平洋热带气旋的生成位置和数量的年际变化明显受到西太平洋上空越赤道气流的影响。结果表明：热带气旋生成数量的年际变化与越赤道气流活动有较好的关系：在6-10月期间,热带西北太平洋中部和东南部的TC生成数量与125°E以及150°E的越赤道气流强度呈显著的正相关,而热带西太平洋北部(25°N以北)的TC生成频次与这两支越赤道气流的强度呈负相关。经过分析发现,越赤道气流通过影响西北太平洋季风槽的东伸和西退,导致西北太平洋上空呈现不同的切变与辐合环流型,从而影响热带气旋生成的位置和数量。
3.2004年和2006年夏季西北太平洋的大尺度环流有着比较明显的区别。因此,利用再分析资料对2004年和2006年7-9月的TC个例进行了较为细致的对比分析。其结果表明：2004年7-9月控制西北太平洋上空的环流型主要是MC型,其纬向风辐合主要位于西北太平洋的中、东侧,受其影响,此区域具有强的低层相对涡度,强的高层散度,小的垂直风切和充足的水汽等利于TC生成的环境因子,因此2004年7-9月在西北太平洋中、东侧上空TC生成较多；而2006年7-9月控制西北太平洋上空的环流型主要是MS型,其纬向风的经向切变主要位于西北太平洋西侧及南海上空,此区域具有上述利于TC生成的环境因子,因此,2006年7-9月西北太平洋两侧和南海上空TC生成较多。并且,利用滤波方法和正压能量转换理论分析了主要由MC型大尺度环流型控制的2004年8月1-30日与主要由MS型大尺度环流型控制的2006年9月10-26日西北太平洋上空对流层低层3-8d周期的涡旋波列及其动能倾向的演变,其结果也表明了2004年8月1-30日西北太平洋涡旋波列及其正涡旋动能倾向分布强且主要位于西北太平洋中、东侧上空,而2006年9月10-26日西北太平洋上涡旋波列及其正涡旋动能倾向分布比2004年8月1-30日弱且主要位于西北太平洋西侧和南海上空。
4.使用WRF区域气候模式成功模拟了2004年7月-9月的热带气旋活动情况。虽然由于物理过程或者热带气旋识别方法等问题,模拟的热带气旋相对实况较小,但是模式能够较好地抓住西北太平洋的大尺度环流型、3-8天扰动活动等情况,为TC的生成提供了良好的背景环境。
The variation of large-scale low-level circulation is one of the key factors in controlling the genesis of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in summer. Thus, it is one of the most important isuses that the influence and mechanism of low-level circulation patterns on tropical cyclogenesis. Using the best track and the reanalysis data, several typical large-scale patterns are identified during the period of tropical cyclogenesis. The influence of large-scale circulation patterns on tropical cyclogenesis and its mechanism is systematically explored in this dissertation by using data analysis, energy diagnosis, and numerical simulation. The follows are the main results:
(1) Present study classifies five large-scale circulation patterns in association with the tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the period1991-2010:the monsoon shear (MS), the monsoon confluence (MC), the reverse-oriented monsoon trough (RMT), the monsoon gyre (MG), and the trade wind easterlies (TE). The first three patterns account for about80%of tropical cyclogeneses. Through a diagnosis of energetics, it is found that the tropical cyclogenesis in the MS, MC, and RMT patterns is highly associated with the barotropic energy conversion. Analysis shows that the horizontal shear of basic zonal flow provides a favorable condition for the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) growth in the MS pattern. When a TC forms in the MC pattern, the horizontal shear and convergence of basic zonal flow are both important for the EKE growth. When the basic flow is the RMT pattern, in addition to the horizontal shear of basic flow, zonal and meridional wind convergence play an important role for tropical cyclogenesis over the WNP and the South China Sea, respectively. However, the barotropic energy conversion appears not to be a main mechanism for the EKE growth in the MG and TE patterns.
(2) The influence of the interannual variation of cross-equatorial flow (CEF) on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific is examined The results show that the number of TC formed over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific is well correlated with the variation of the cross-equatorial flows near125°E and150°E, and there is a significant negative correlation for the TC geneses over the northern part of the western North Pacific. The composite analyses show that during the strong-CEF-years, the variation of OLR, vertical wind shear between200-850hPa,850hPa relative vorticity and200hPa divergence are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific, vice versa. Moreover, it is also discussed from the barotropic energy conversion view that during the strong-CEF-years, the eastward of the monsoon trough leads to the rapid growth of the eddy kinetic energy over the western North Pacific, which is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis.
(3) The influence of large-scale circulations on tropical cyclogenesis during the year of2004and2006is analyzed. The result shows:the main large-scale pattern controls tropical cyclogenesis over the WNP is MC in July to September,2004, and is MS in the year of2006. The convergence of zonal wind, low-level vorticity, high-level divergence, vertical wind shear located at certain areas where tropical cyclone events occers. Moreover, the barotropic energy conversions during tropical cyclogenesis period in the year of2004and2006are calculated to analyze the3-8day wave train over the western North Pacific and the variation of eddy kinetic tendency. The result shows the large eddy kinetic growth areas are consistent with the tropical cyclone geneses in both2004and2006.
(4) By using WRF model, the tropical cyclogeneses during July,2004to September,2004are well simulated. Although the number of TC formation is smaller than those in the JTWC dataset, the features of large-scale circulation,3-8day bandpass filtered perturbation are well captured, which are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis.
引文
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