上海中心城区暴雨积水机理分析
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摘要
上海,位于东海之滨,亚洲第一大河长江的入海口及亚太城市群的地理中心,全市总面积6340km2。长江三角洲地区地势平坦低洼,河网纵横交错,气候四季分明、降水丰沛。作为长三角第一大城市,2011年上海共有常住人口2302万,GDP产值19195.69亿元,约占全国总产值的4.07%,是我国经济发展最快、人口密度最大、城市化水平最高的地区。城市建设是经济发展的基础,实现上海城市的全面、健康、协调、可持续建设,规避可能由高速城市化引起的城市水文灾害,对长三角地区乃至全国经济的发展都有着举足轻重的作用。
暴雨积水,是制约世界各大主要沿海城市发展的城市水文灾害之一；“看海”,已成为许多沿海城市的一道独特风景。近年来,在全球变暖及区域相对海平面上升的影响下,沿海城市的暴雨积水灾害研究已成为国际学术界及各国城市水文学家普遍关注的热点问题和科学前沿。通过系统梳理与借鉴前人研究成果,探讨了沿海城市暴雨积水的成因,分析主要驱动因子的时空分布演化特征。同时,提出了沿海城市暴雨积水概念模型,并以上海历年主要暴雨积水事件为依据,对上海中心城区暴雨积水过程进行模拟及情景分析。在针对大量基础数据资料进行综合分析及模型构建基础之上,主要研究工作和结论如下：
(1)总结了沿海城市暴雨积水灾害的主要驱动因子,及其相互之问的关联与制约。在相对海平面上升带动下,沿海城市感潮河道的高低潮位相应抬高,潮流对入海河流的顶托作用增强,直接造成入河雨水管网系统排水能力。同时,在全球变化影响下,长江中下游地区的突发性降水事件呈逐年增多且频率集中趋势。加之快速的城市化发展在一定程度上不利于暴雨发生时下垫面对雨水径流的渗透,导致低洼地段向外排水能力急剧下降。此外,原有排水管网系统陈旧落后,致使城市自流排水发生困难、低洼地排水不畅、泵站抽排效率降低、市区积水时间延长、积水水位加深、内涝灾害的发生频率及严重程度增加。
(2)选取上海中心城区作为典型研究区,深入分析了上海城区降水、河网及土地利用的时空演化特征。结果显示,降水作为上海积水内涝灾害的首要制约因素,年际变化呈“三上三下”趋势,总量略有减小但无明显突变。汛期降水作为全年降水的重要组成部分,在20世纪80年代后有明显增长。夏季降水量自90年代末以来增加明显,其中以8月份降水量的增加表现得尤为显著,而春季降水量则自2006年开始出现明显减少。各主要年份降水天数与总量一样呈减少趋势,但汛期降水天数则有小幅回升。同时,大于等于25mm／50mm日降水量的天数却有所增加。说明上海近年来虽然降水总量略有减少,但降水分布趋于集中,且降水强度更大、暴雨出现频率更高、连续降水天数增长明显。受筑路、建房等影响,除黄浦江与苏州河外,市区河道以浦西苏州河以南为中心向四周迅速消散。河网密度与长度持续下降,河道对积水的自然排泄功能基本消失,与上海城市化发展的趋势基本一致,说明城市化对上海市区河网结构演化起着直接作用。土地覆盖及利用变化导致路面硬化程度不断加大,雨水渗透率急剧降低,市区地表径流系数随城市化率不断提高,已超过0.7ψ,大大增加了城区暴雨积水的发生机率。快速城市化过程中,虹口、闸北、黄浦、徐汇等中心城区落后的排水管网体系仍无法满足日益增长的排水需求,积水点较往年虽有所减少,但如遇“百年一遇”或“千年一遇”暴雨时积水问题仍较为严重,也成为诱发暴雨积水的重要因素。
(3)以中心城区积水多发路段为例,构建适用的暴雨积水模型。运用SWMM1D水动力模型与FloodMap2D数值模型,通过松散耦合方式构建完成上海中心城区暴雨积水模型。并以安福路常熟路路口积水监测点积水深度为例,对耦合模型进行校正,对比分析4种不同的曼宁系数值及其误差率,得到适合该区域的模型参数,即管网糙率为0.013,且与实际监测点水深深度拟合度最高。以上海2008年8月25日暴雨积水事件为基础开展模型的校正与验证。模拟结果虽在水淹范围与时间上存在一定误差及滞后性,但与上海水务局实时监测统系所采集的数据总体情况基本一致,在不考虑中心绿化隔离带的假设下,水深约为0.1～0.3m左右。其中,安福路常熟路路口处积水最为严重,溢水处由于受地势等因素影响最深处水深达0.5m左右。基于60年上海徐家汇站极端降水量数据,利用P-Ⅲ频率分析计算了极端日降水的重现周期,发现不同重现期降水量均有明显增加,“百年一遇”暴雨雨量缩短为50a一遇,“千年一遇”的暴雨重现期缩短至仅为385a一遇。
(4)以验证后的耦合模型为基础,以上海10a一遇、50a一遇、200a一遇及极端环境条件(“千年一遇”)为情景,分别展开沿海城市暴雨积水灾害过程建模及情景模拟。结果表明：出水口溢出水流量与降水量关系密切,且存在一定的滞后性,在历时3h的暴雨过程中,暴雨雨峰一般出现在1～1.5h,而相应的溢出水流峰值则出现在1.5h左右。10a一遇、50a一遇及200a一遇的模拟结果主要表现为三个特征：1)最大积水深度和积水范围随暴雨重现期不断增大而增加,且以基本满足R2=0.9922的对数趋势逐渐递增；2)受房屋影响,房屋密集处积水漫溢速度较慢,但受淹时间也相对较长；3)路口或拐弯处比其他区域更易形成积水,且延续时间更长。对极端环境下的暴雨积水模拟的特点及主要危害有：1)全过程中建模区内大范围受淹,最大积水面积达23600m2；2)积水深度极大,表现出明显的先增后减趋势,而管网的溢出水峰值相较与其他情景模式而言并未出现太大波动；3)积水范围空间分布不均匀。
(5)同时,基于不同暴雨重现期,对概化后不同管径大小的排水管网系统进行模拟,以得到各暴雨重现期下的最小管径容量。通过计算得到,在现有排水管网系统埋深不变且仅考虑排水管网系统自身容量的前提下,建模区内“10a-遇”、“50a一遇”、“100a一遇”、“200a一遇”及“1000a一遇”暴雨重现期内的排水管网系统敷设的理想管径分别应为Φ=450mm、Φ=600mm、Φ=700mm、Φ=800mm及Φ=1000mm。同时,通过对未来不同暴雨重现期理想管网改造的投入费用计算得到,在现有排水管网设计基础上,建模区内“10a一遇”、“50a-遇”、“100a一遇”、“200a一遇”及“1000a一遇”暴雨的排水设计改造费用分别为908.6万元、1517.4万元、1725.0万元、1859.8万元及2018.3万元。
Shanghai, by the estuary of Yangtze River and the geographic center of the Asia-Pacific urban agglomeration, located in East China Sea, the total area is6340km2. There is a flat low-lying terrain and a criss-cross river network, with four distinct seasons and abundant precipitation, in the Yangtze River Delta region. As the largest city in the Yangtze River Delta with the total resident population of23.02million, and GDP output value of1.92trillion RMB that accounting for4.07%of the country, Shanghai becomes the most prosperous economic development, highest population density, and fastest urbanization level of China. Urban construction is the foundation of economic development, it plays a pivotal role that achieving Shanghai's comprehensive, healthy, harmonious and sustainable construction, while avoiding urban hydrology disaster that maybe caused by rapid urbanization, in the development of the Yangtze River Delta region as well as the national economy.
Rainstorm waterlogging is one of the urban hydrology disasters to restrict the development of major coastal urban of the world,"to see the sea", has become a unique landscape of it. Recent years, in the context of global warming and regional relative sea level rise, coastal cities waterlogging disasters have been the hotspots in international academia as well as the frontiers of science in research field. On the basis of the achievements of previous development in waterlogging disasters research, this research presents the reasons of coastal urban waterlogging and analyzes the temporal evolution characteristics of main driving factors. Moreover, the theoretical model of coastal urban rainstorm waterlogging will be built to simulate and analyze the scenario of waterlogging process in the City of Shanghai based on the over years waterlogging events. The main research work and conclusions can be summed up as follows:
1) Summarizes the main driving factor of the coastal urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, and their mutual relationships and constraints. Driven by the relative sea-level rise, the high and low tide of tidal rivers were raised correspondingly, and the trend was enhanced on the backwater effect of the rivers into the sea, then that will cause the capacity of drainage system reduced in directly. At the same time, under the influence of global change, the sudden precipitation events of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region was increasing year by year as well as concentrating frequency. Combined with rapid urbanization development to a certain extent, it is not conducive to infiltrate runoff through the underlying surface when a rainstorm occurs, that resulting in a sharp decline of outside drainage capacity in the low-lying areas. In addition, the existing drainage network system were outdated, resulting in difficulties on urban gravity drainage, poor drainage on low-lying, low efficiency on pumping stations, long time and deepening on waterlogging, and increased frequency and severity on waterlogging disasters.
2) Choose the City of Shanghai as a typical study area, in-depth analysis of the spatial evolution of rainfall, land use and river network. The results showed that, precipitation as the primary constraint of waterlogging disasters, it was "three up and downs" in inter-annual variability and the total amount decreases slightly but no obvious mutations. Flood season precipitation as an important part of the year has a significant increased at the late of1980s, and summer precipitation since the end of1990s has also increase obviously which particularly has been remarkable in August, while spring rainfall has a clearly reduced since2006. Major year precipitation days have also decreased but flood season rainfall days were rally slightly. At the same time, it was an ease up on days of daily rainfall which exceeding25mm and50mm. It indicated the concentrating distribution and large intensity on precipitation, higher frequency on storm rainfall, and substantial extension on consecutive days. In addition to the Huangpu River and Suzhou Creek, affected by roads, housing, etc., the urban rivers both between west of Huangpu River and south of Suzhou Creek as the center around to dissipate quickly. Density and length of river network continue to decline, and then the function of natural waterlogging discharge was disappeared basically. With the same trend of Shanghai's urbanization, it means urbanization plays a direct role in river network structure evolution. LUCC leads to increase the degree of road sclerosis, permeability of rainfall sharply reduced, the surface runoff coefficient was continuously consistent with improved urbanization rate that was exceeding0.7ψ already, and the risk of urban rainstorm waterlogging was tremendously rose. In the process of rapid urbanization, backward sewer network system in the City, such as Hongkou, Zhabei, Huangpu and Xuhui, is able to uncomfortable the increasing demand of drainage. In case of rainfall storm with100a or1000a return period, there is still had a serious waterlogging problem despite the points have a gently diminished than before, and it has also became a key factor in storm waterlogging induced.
3) As an example on part of the roads which prone to waterlogging in the centre of City, construction the rainfall storm waterlogging model. Used SWMM ID hydrodynamic model and FloodMap2D numerical model, constructing the rainfall storm waterlogging model in the City of Shanghai through the loose coupling. And, calibrating the coupled model with the depth of waterlogging form the monitoring point nearby the cross of Anfu and Changshu road, analyzing four kinds of Manning's roughness coefficient and its error rate, get the parameters in the model is0.013which is goodness of fit the actual monitoring. Utilize the25th August,2008waterlogging event as the foundation of model verification. The simulation results showed that the result is basically consistent the data collected from real-time monitoring systems by Shanghai Water Bureau in the overall situation although there is existed some errors and lag in inundation scope and waterlogging time, and the depth of water is above0.1～0.3m according with the hypothesis of without considering greening belt. And, most serious of waterlogging appeared at the junction of Anfu and Changshu road, and the most depth of overflow is among0.5～0.6m that due to terrain and other factors. Based on the extreme precipitation data of recent60a form Xujiahui Meteorology Station and analysis method of P-Ⅲ frequency, calculate the return period of the extreme precipitation. It found that the precipitation at different return period had a significant increased,100a return period shortened into50a and1000a return period is only to385a.
4) Based on the after testing coupled model, and with the10a,50a,200a and1000a return period as the background, started the process modeling and scenario simulation of coastal urban rainfall storm waterlogging disaster. The conclusion shows that:there is a closed relationship between precipitation and overflow, and the hysteretic has existed. Based on the after testing coupled model, and with the10a,50a,200a and1000a return period as the background, started the process modeling and scenario simulation of coastal urban rainfall storm waterlogging disaster. The conclusion shows that:there is a closed relationship between precipitation and overflow, and the hysteretic has existed. In a process of last3h rainfall storm, the peak of rainfall always appears in1～1,5h, and the corresponding overflow's peak is appeared around1.5h. The performance of simulation results with10a,50a, and200a return periods as the following three aspects:i)the largest depth and scope of waterlogging are continuously increased with increasing rainfall storm return period; ii)influenced by house, the speed of overflow is slow in the dense area of house but also a relatively long time; iii)crossing or turning of the roads are more easily to become waterlogging than other place, and also last longer. The characteristics and hazards of simulation under the extreme environment (1000a return period) also as the following three aspects:i)there is a wide range of waterlogging in the modeling area in the whole process with a biggest area of23600m2; ii)the depth of water shows an obviously decreased trend after increased, but there is an unobvious fluctuation by the peak of overflow compared with other scenarios; iii)the space distribution of waterlogging range is uneven.
5) At the same time, based on different rainstorm return period, generalized to after the different size diameters drainage network simulation system, in order to get the return period of rainstorm under minimum diameter capacity. Through the calculated, the existing drainage sewer system unchanged and only consider buried deep drainage sewer system itself capacity, under the premise of modeling zone10a return period,50a return period,100a return period,200a return period and1000a return period rainstorm return period the drainage system of ideal diameter are Φ=450mm,Φ=600mm,Φ=700mm,Φ=800mm and Φ=1000mm, and while the modification cost are9.086million yuan,15.174million yuan,17.25million yuan,18.598million yuan and20.183million yuan respectively.
暴雨积水,是制约世界各大主要沿海城市发展的城市水文灾害之一；“看海”,已成为许多沿海城市的一道独特风景。近年来,在全球变暖及区域相对海平面上升的影响下,沿海城市的暴雨积水灾害研究已成为国际学术界及各国城市水文学家普遍关注的热点问题和科学前沿。通过系统梳理与借鉴前人研究成果,探讨了沿海城市暴雨积水的成因,分析主要驱动因子的时空分布演化特征。同时,提出了沿海城市暴雨积水概念模型,并以上海历年主要暴雨积水事件为依据,对上海中心城区暴雨积水过程进行模拟及情景分析。在针对大量基础数据资料进行综合分析及模型构建基础之上,主要研究工作和结论如下：
(1)总结了沿海城市暴雨积水灾害的主要驱动因子,及其相互之问的关联与制约。在相对海平面上升带动下,沿海城市感潮河道的高低潮位相应抬高,潮流对入海河流的顶托作用增强,直接造成入河雨水管网系统排水能力。同时,在全球变化影响下,长江中下游地区的突发性降水事件呈逐年增多且频率集中趋势。加之快速的城市化发展在一定程度上不利于暴雨发生时下垫面对雨水径流的渗透,导致低洼地段向外排水能力急剧下降。此外,原有排水管网系统陈旧落后,致使城市自流排水发生困难、低洼地排水不畅、泵站抽排效率降低、市区积水时间延长、积水水位加深、内涝灾害的发生频率及严重程度增加。
(2)选取上海中心城区作为典型研究区,深入分析了上海城区降水、河网及土地利用的时空演化特征。结果显示,降水作为上海积水内涝灾害的首要制约因素,年际变化呈“三上三下”趋势,总量略有减小但无明显突变。汛期降水作为全年降水的重要组成部分,在20世纪80年代后有明显增长。夏季降水量自90年代末以来增加明显,其中以8月份降水量的增加表现得尤为显著,而春季降水量则自2006年开始出现明显减少。各主要年份降水天数与总量一样呈减少趋势,但汛期降水天数则有小幅回升。同时,大于等于25mm／50mm日降水量的天数却有所增加。说明上海近年来虽然降水总量略有减少,但降水分布趋于集中,且降水强度更大、暴雨出现频率更高、连续降水天数增长明显。受筑路、建房等影响,除黄浦江与苏州河外,市区河道以浦西苏州河以南为中心向四周迅速消散。河网密度与长度持续下降,河道对积水的自然排泄功能基本消失,与上海城市化发展的趋势基本一致,说明城市化对上海市区河网结构演化起着直接作用。土地覆盖及利用变化导致路面硬化程度不断加大,雨水渗透率急剧降低,市区地表径流系数随城市化率不断提高,已超过0.7ψ,大大增加了城区暴雨积水的发生机率。快速城市化过程中,虹口、闸北、黄浦、徐汇等中心城区落后的排水管网体系仍无法满足日益增长的排水需求,积水点较往年虽有所减少,但如遇“百年一遇”或“千年一遇”暴雨时积水问题仍较为严重,也成为诱发暴雨积水的重要因素。
(3)以中心城区积水多发路段为例,构建适用的暴雨积水模型。运用SWMM1D水动力模型与FloodMap2D数值模型,通过松散耦合方式构建完成上海中心城区暴雨积水模型。并以安福路常熟路路口积水监测点积水深度为例,对耦合模型进行校正,对比分析4种不同的曼宁系数值及其误差率,得到适合该区域的模型参数,即管网糙率为0.013,且与实际监测点水深深度拟合度最高。以上海2008年8月25日暴雨积水事件为基础开展模型的校正与验证。模拟结果虽在水淹范围与时间上存在一定误差及滞后性,但与上海水务局实时监测统系所采集的数据总体情况基本一致,在不考虑中心绿化隔离带的假设下,水深约为0.1～0.3m左右。其中,安福路常熟路路口处积水最为严重,溢水处由于受地势等因素影响最深处水深达0.5m左右。基于60年上海徐家汇站极端降水量数据,利用P-Ⅲ频率分析计算了极端日降水的重现周期,发现不同重现期降水量均有明显增加,“百年一遇”暴雨雨量缩短为50a一遇,“千年一遇”的暴雨重现期缩短至仅为385a一遇。
(4)以验证后的耦合模型为基础,以上海10a一遇、50a一遇、200a一遇及极端环境条件(“千年一遇”)为情景,分别展开沿海城市暴雨积水灾害过程建模及情景模拟。结果表明：出水口溢出水流量与降水量关系密切,且存在一定的滞后性,在历时3h的暴雨过程中,暴雨雨峰一般出现在1～1.5h,而相应的溢出水流峰值则出现在1.5h左右。10a一遇、50a一遇及200a一遇的模拟结果主要表现为三个特征：1)最大积水深度和积水范围随暴雨重现期不断增大而增加,且以基本满足R2=0.9922的对数趋势逐渐递增；2)受房屋影响,房屋密集处积水漫溢速度较慢,但受淹时间也相对较长；3)路口或拐弯处比其他区域更易形成积水,且延续时间更长。对极端环境下的暴雨积水模拟的特点及主要危害有：1)全过程中建模区内大范围受淹,最大积水面积达23600m2；2)积水深度极大,表现出明显的先增后减趋势,而管网的溢出水峰值相较与其他情景模式而言并未出现太大波动；3)积水范围空间分布不均匀。
(5)同时,基于不同暴雨重现期,对概化后不同管径大小的排水管网系统进行模拟,以得到各暴雨重现期下的最小管径容量。通过计算得到,在现有排水管网系统埋深不变且仅考虑排水管网系统自身容量的前提下,建模区内“10a-遇”、“50a一遇”、“100a一遇”、“200a一遇”及“1000a一遇”暴雨重现期内的排水管网系统敷设的理想管径分别应为Φ=450mm、Φ=600mm、Φ=700mm、Φ=800mm及Φ=1000mm。同时,通过对未来不同暴雨重现期理想管网改造的投入费用计算得到,在现有排水管网设计基础上,建模区内“10a一遇”、“50a-遇”、“100a一遇”、“200a一遇”及“1000a一遇”暴雨的排水设计改造费用分别为908.6万元、1517.4万元、1725.0万元、1859.8万元及2018.3万元。
Shanghai, by the estuary of Yangtze River and the geographic center of the Asia-Pacific urban agglomeration, located in East China Sea, the total area is6340km2. There is a flat low-lying terrain and a criss-cross river network, with four distinct seasons and abundant precipitation, in the Yangtze River Delta region. As the largest city in the Yangtze River Delta with the total resident population of23.02million, and GDP output value of1.92trillion RMB that accounting for4.07%of the country, Shanghai becomes the most prosperous economic development, highest population density, and fastest urbanization level of China. Urban construction is the foundation of economic development, it plays a pivotal role that achieving Shanghai's comprehensive, healthy, harmonious and sustainable construction, while avoiding urban hydrology disaster that maybe caused by rapid urbanization, in the development of the Yangtze River Delta region as well as the national economy.
Rainstorm waterlogging is one of the urban hydrology disasters to restrict the development of major coastal urban of the world,"to see the sea", has become a unique landscape of it. Recent years, in the context of global warming and regional relative sea level rise, coastal cities waterlogging disasters have been the hotspots in international academia as well as the frontiers of science in research field. On the basis of the achievements of previous development in waterlogging disasters research, this research presents the reasons of coastal urban waterlogging and analyzes the temporal evolution characteristics of main driving factors. Moreover, the theoretical model of coastal urban rainstorm waterlogging will be built to simulate and analyze the scenario of waterlogging process in the City of Shanghai based on the over years waterlogging events. The main research work and conclusions can be summed up as follows:
1) Summarizes the main driving factor of the coastal urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, and their mutual relationships and constraints. Driven by the relative sea-level rise, the high and low tide of tidal rivers were raised correspondingly, and the trend was enhanced on the backwater effect of the rivers into the sea, then that will cause the capacity of drainage system reduced in directly. At the same time, under the influence of global change, the sudden precipitation events of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region was increasing year by year as well as concentrating frequency. Combined with rapid urbanization development to a certain extent, it is not conducive to infiltrate runoff through the underlying surface when a rainstorm occurs, that resulting in a sharp decline of outside drainage capacity in the low-lying areas. In addition, the existing drainage network system were outdated, resulting in difficulties on urban gravity drainage, poor drainage on low-lying, low efficiency on pumping stations, long time and deepening on waterlogging, and increased frequency and severity on waterlogging disasters.
2) Choose the City of Shanghai as a typical study area, in-depth analysis of the spatial evolution of rainfall, land use and river network. The results showed that, precipitation as the primary constraint of waterlogging disasters, it was "three up and downs" in inter-annual variability and the total amount decreases slightly but no obvious mutations. Flood season precipitation as an important part of the year has a significant increased at the late of1980s, and summer precipitation since the end of1990s has also increase obviously which particularly has been remarkable in August, while spring rainfall has a clearly reduced since2006. Major year precipitation days have also decreased but flood season rainfall days were rally slightly. At the same time, it was an ease up on days of daily rainfall which exceeding25mm and50mm. It indicated the concentrating distribution and large intensity on precipitation, higher frequency on storm rainfall, and substantial extension on consecutive days. In addition to the Huangpu River and Suzhou Creek, affected by roads, housing, etc., the urban rivers both between west of Huangpu River and south of Suzhou Creek as the center around to dissipate quickly. Density and length of river network continue to decline, and then the function of natural waterlogging discharge was disappeared basically. With the same trend of Shanghai's urbanization, it means urbanization plays a direct role in river network structure evolution. LUCC leads to increase the degree of road sclerosis, permeability of rainfall sharply reduced, the surface runoff coefficient was continuously consistent with improved urbanization rate that was exceeding0.7ψ already, and the risk of urban rainstorm waterlogging was tremendously rose. In the process of rapid urbanization, backward sewer network system in the City, such as Hongkou, Zhabei, Huangpu and Xuhui, is able to uncomfortable the increasing demand of drainage. In case of rainfall storm with100a or1000a return period, there is still had a serious waterlogging problem despite the points have a gently diminished than before, and it has also became a key factor in storm waterlogging induced.
3) As an example on part of the roads which prone to waterlogging in the centre of City, construction the rainfall storm waterlogging model. Used SWMM ID hydrodynamic model and FloodMap2D numerical model, constructing the rainfall storm waterlogging model in the City of Shanghai through the loose coupling. And, calibrating the coupled model with the depth of waterlogging form the monitoring point nearby the cross of Anfu and Changshu road, analyzing four kinds of Manning's roughness coefficient and its error rate, get the parameters in the model is0.013which is goodness of fit the actual monitoring. Utilize the25th August,2008waterlogging event as the foundation of model verification. The simulation results showed that the result is basically consistent the data collected from real-time monitoring systems by Shanghai Water Bureau in the overall situation although there is existed some errors and lag in inundation scope and waterlogging time, and the depth of water is above0.1～0.3m according with the hypothesis of without considering greening belt. And, most serious of waterlogging appeared at the junction of Anfu and Changshu road, and the most depth of overflow is among0.5～0.6m that due to terrain and other factors. Based on the extreme precipitation data of recent60a form Xujiahui Meteorology Station and analysis method of P-Ⅲ frequency, calculate the return period of the extreme precipitation. It found that the precipitation at different return period had a significant increased,100a return period shortened into50a and1000a return period is only to385a.
4) Based on the after testing coupled model, and with the10a,50a,200a and1000a return period as the background, started the process modeling and scenario simulation of coastal urban rainfall storm waterlogging disaster. The conclusion shows that:there is a closed relationship between precipitation and overflow, and the hysteretic has existed. Based on the after testing coupled model, and with the10a,50a,200a and1000a return period as the background, started the process modeling and scenario simulation of coastal urban rainfall storm waterlogging disaster. The conclusion shows that:there is a closed relationship between precipitation and overflow, and the hysteretic has existed. In a process of last3h rainfall storm, the peak of rainfall always appears in1～1,5h, and the corresponding overflow's peak is appeared around1.5h. The performance of simulation results with10a,50a, and200a return periods as the following three aspects:i)the largest depth and scope of waterlogging are continuously increased with increasing rainfall storm return period; ii)influenced by house, the speed of overflow is slow in the dense area of house but also a relatively long time; iii)crossing or turning of the roads are more easily to become waterlogging than other place, and also last longer. The characteristics and hazards of simulation under the extreme environment (1000a return period) also as the following three aspects:i)there is a wide range of waterlogging in the modeling area in the whole process with a biggest area of23600m2; ii)the depth of water shows an obviously decreased trend after increased, but there is an unobvious fluctuation by the peak of overflow compared with other scenarios; iii)the space distribution of waterlogging range is uneven.
5) At the same time, based on different rainstorm return period, generalized to after the different size diameters drainage network simulation system, in order to get the return period of rainstorm under minimum diameter capacity. Through the calculated, the existing drainage sewer system unchanged and only consider buried deep drainage sewer system itself capacity, under the premise of modeling zone10a return period,50a return period,100a return period,200a return period and1000a return period rainstorm return period the drainage system of ideal diameter are Φ=450mm,Φ=600mm,Φ=700mm,Φ=800mm and Φ=1000mm, and while the modification cost are9.086million yuan,15.174million yuan,17.25million yuan,18.598million yuan and20.183million yuan respectively.
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