雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心构建的理论与运行机制研究
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摘要
在西部大开发和国家能源战略实施的背景下,我国水电开发进入快速建设期,已建、在建和待建水电工程规模庞大,对水电工程项目开发管理、梯级电站联合优化运行以及流域生态环境统筹保护等问题的研究都极具挑战性和开创性。雅砻江流域梯级水电开发也面临着许多关键科学问题和工程技术难题,这些问题的研究往往横跨多个学科,涉及多个领域,仅依靠流域水电开发企业自身的科研实力很难解决,需要企业、高校和科研院所等多方协同参与、共同解决,因此,构建雅砻江流域水电开发虚拟研究中心具有十分重要的现实和社会意义。
本文研究以雅砻江流域水电梯级开发的工程实践为背景,引入信息论、系统论、对策论、控制论和协同论等多学科综合交叉研究的理论与方法,探索并建立基于复杂性科学理论、运用现代信息科学方法与技术手段的虚拟组织管理模式的理论与方法,深入系统地开展了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心构建的理论与运行机制研究,主要研究内容和创新性成果包括：
(1)针对雅砻江流域水电梯级综合开发的特点和二滩公司技术创新的需求特性,论证了成立雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心的必要性和可行性,设计了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心组织结构；解析了虚拟研究中心伙伴优选决策过程中的信息模糊性和不确定性,建立了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心伙伴优选决策评价体系,提出了一种基于SVM-FAHP的优选决策模型,解决了虚拟研究中心综合评价中伙伴数量过多导致的优选决策效率低和精度差等问题,为雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心的组建与运行提供决策支持。
(2)探讨研究了虚拟研究中心的信任机制、利益分配机制、激励机制、决策机制和协调机制,提出了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心联合管理、纵向管理和自主管理三种项目管理模式；为解决虚拟研究中心知识共享中存在的机会主义行为和自我保护意识等问题,建立了一种基于Stackelberg主从博弈的虚拟研究中心知识共享决策模型,推求了博弈过程中知识共享决策总体投入的均衡值、各成员的知识共享率及知识共享总体收益,解析了影响博弈结果的各参数之间的相互关系,研究表明基于Stackelberg博弈的优先决策模型有利于虚拟研究中心项目小组整体绩效的提升。
(3)构建敏捷化、柔性化和分布式的虚拟研究中心知识管理系统,可直接提高虚拟研究中心的创新力和竞争力。分析了知识管理系统组成和虚拟研究中心知识管理特点,提出了一种基于Web Service的虚拟研究中心知识管理系统模型,构建了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心知识管理系统,可促进虚拟研究中心知识成果的有效管理,实现知识资源的交流、共享和创新,提高虚拟研究中心在复杂环境下的竞争能力。
(4)研究了虚拟研究中心的发展对策,探讨了虚拟研究中心解体与转型的组织模式,对虚拟研究中心的解体形式、绩效评价及解体事务处理等进行了分析研究；针对虚拟研究中心综合绩效评价中定性指标难以量化以及某些指标之间相互耦合等问题,建立了综合绩效评价指标体系,提出了一种基于TFN-ANP的综合绩效评价模型,构建了指标非线性组合关系的多属性绩效综合评价模型与算法,为虚拟研究中心降低项目运行成本,提高运营绩效提供决策支持。
(5)以虚拟研究中心构建的相关理论研究成果为指导,通过业务流程重构,设计了虚拟研究中心管理模式及其信息流程的映射关系和支持负载均衡策略的集成拓扑结构,构建了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心信息平台,提出了基于分布式对象中间组件技术的三层软件体系架构模型,实现了虚拟研究中心知识共享、信息发布、项目管理和成员管理等高级应用功能,此外,还分析展望了雅砻江虚拟研究中心信息平台的应用与推广前景。
With the deepening of the hydropower bases of Southwest China, it become more and more challenging and groundbreaking for the development and management of large hydropower projects, valley ecosystem environmental protection and joint optimization of cascade hydropower station. It is also confronted with many key scientific issues and technical problems during the process of cascade hydropower development of Yalong river basin. Generally, these kind of problems are across multiple disciplines and involve in a number of areas, thus it is very difficult to solve these problems completely by the research strength of the hydropower development enterprises themselves. It needs to combine the enterprises, universities and research institutes to collaborative solve these problems, which mean it has great practical and social significance to the Yalong river Virtual Research Center (VRC).
Background of the cascade hydropower development of Yalong river basin, this research introduce of information theory, system theory, game theory, cybernetics, synergetics and other theories and methods, explore and establish the virtual organization management theory and methods based on the complex science theory, modern information methods and technical means, research the principle and operating mechanism of Yalong river VRC, and the main contents and innovative results are listed as follows.
(1)According to the demand characteristics of Ertan company technological innovation and the engineering background of hydropower development of Yalong river basin, the necessity and feasibility for the formation of the Yalong river VRC are demonstrate firstly and the Yalong river VRC organization structure is designed. Secondly, the complexity and the uncertainty in selecting partner of VRC are revealed, then a novel evaluation model based on support vector machine and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (SVM-FAHP) is proposed. The problems caused by too many cooperative partners are solved and the classification precision and decision-making efficiency are both improved. This research results can provide decision supports for VRC's formation and operation.
(2)The trust mechanism, benefit distribution mechanism, incentive mechanism, decision mechanism and coordination mechanism of the Yalong river VRC are discussed and studied. Three project management models such as joint management, vertical management and independent management are also proposed. To solve the problems caused by the opportunism and self-protection of knowledge sharing in virtual research center (VRC), a knowledge sharing decision model based on Stackelberg leader-follower game is proposed. The equilibrium values of relevant efforts made by both parties in knowledge sharing, the knowledge sharing rates of members and the total expected gain from knowledge sharing are determined in the decision-making process. Then the relationship among the parameters of game results was analyzed. The results show that it is an effective way for members of VRC to maximize the benefits of each other and improve the project team performance by building the knowledge sharing decision model proposed above.
(3)It can directly promote innovation and competitiveness ability of VRC to build a knowledge management system which has agility, flexibility and distributed characters. Based on the analysis of system components and features of Knowledge management system, a comprehensive model of the knowledge management system (KMS) of the virtual research center based on Web Service is proposed. Then the knowledge management system of the virtual research center of Yalong river hydropower development is built. The results show that it is an effective way for VRC to realize sharing, communication and innovation of knowledge and enhance the VRC's competitiveness in a complex environment through building a knowledge management system based on the Web Service model.
(4)To solve the problems caused by the fuzzy decision making, quantifying the qualitative indexes and dealing with the interdependence and interaction of some indexes during the process of VRC performance evaluation, an index evaluation system is first established and the interactive relationships of the evaluation indexes are analyzed. Then the method of evaluating comprehensive performance based on triangle fuzzy analytic network process is proposed. A multi-criteria complex evaluation model and arithmetic are constructed with nonlinear combination of indexes relations. The research can provide decision supports for VRC to reduce project operating costs and improve operational performance.
(5)According to the demand of technological innovation and research management of Ertan company, Research work take the knowledge management theoretical research results of VRC as a guide, and design the VRC project management model, analyze the mapping relationship of VRC information flow and establish integrated topology which can support load balancing strategy by the business process reengineering. Then the advanced application functions of information platform for Yalong river VRC are realized. Finally the future development of Yalong River VRC information platform is expected. In addition, the disintegration forms for VRC and its development strategies are also analyzed and discussed.
本文研究以雅砻江流域水电梯级开发的工程实践为背景,引入信息论、系统论、对策论、控制论和协同论等多学科综合交叉研究的理论与方法,探索并建立基于复杂性科学理论、运用现代信息科学方法与技术手段的虚拟组织管理模式的理论与方法,深入系统地开展了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心构建的理论与运行机制研究,主要研究内容和创新性成果包括：
(1)针对雅砻江流域水电梯级综合开发的特点和二滩公司技术创新的需求特性,论证了成立雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心的必要性和可行性,设计了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心组织结构；解析了虚拟研究中心伙伴优选决策过程中的信息模糊性和不确定性,建立了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心伙伴优选决策评价体系,提出了一种基于SVM-FAHP的优选决策模型,解决了虚拟研究中心综合评价中伙伴数量过多导致的优选决策效率低和精度差等问题,为雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心的组建与运行提供决策支持。
(2)探讨研究了虚拟研究中心的信任机制、利益分配机制、激励机制、决策机制和协调机制,提出了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心联合管理、纵向管理和自主管理三种项目管理模式；为解决虚拟研究中心知识共享中存在的机会主义行为和自我保护意识等问题,建立了一种基于Stackelberg主从博弈的虚拟研究中心知识共享决策模型,推求了博弈过程中知识共享决策总体投入的均衡值、各成员的知识共享率及知识共享总体收益,解析了影响博弈结果的各参数之间的相互关系,研究表明基于Stackelberg博弈的优先决策模型有利于虚拟研究中心项目小组整体绩效的提升。
(3)构建敏捷化、柔性化和分布式的虚拟研究中心知识管理系统,可直接提高虚拟研究中心的创新力和竞争力。分析了知识管理系统组成和虚拟研究中心知识管理特点,提出了一种基于Web Service的虚拟研究中心知识管理系统模型,构建了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心知识管理系统,可促进虚拟研究中心知识成果的有效管理,实现知识资源的交流、共享和创新,提高虚拟研究中心在复杂环境下的竞争能力。
(4)研究了虚拟研究中心的发展对策,探讨了虚拟研究中心解体与转型的组织模式,对虚拟研究中心的解体形式、绩效评价及解体事务处理等进行了分析研究；针对虚拟研究中心综合绩效评价中定性指标难以量化以及某些指标之间相互耦合等问题,建立了综合绩效评价指标体系,提出了一种基于TFN-ANP的综合绩效评价模型,构建了指标非线性组合关系的多属性绩效综合评价模型与算法,为虚拟研究中心降低项目运行成本,提高运营绩效提供决策支持。
(5)以虚拟研究中心构建的相关理论研究成果为指导,通过业务流程重构,设计了虚拟研究中心管理模式及其信息流程的映射关系和支持负载均衡策略的集成拓扑结构,构建了雅砻江水电开发虚拟研究中心信息平台,提出了基于分布式对象中间组件技术的三层软件体系架构模型,实现了虚拟研究中心知识共享、信息发布、项目管理和成员管理等高级应用功能,此外,还分析展望了雅砻江虚拟研究中心信息平台的应用与推广前景。
With the deepening of the hydropower bases of Southwest China, it become more and more challenging and groundbreaking for the development and management of large hydropower projects, valley ecosystem environmental protection and joint optimization of cascade hydropower station. It is also confronted with many key scientific issues and technical problems during the process of cascade hydropower development of Yalong river basin. Generally, these kind of problems are across multiple disciplines and involve in a number of areas, thus it is very difficult to solve these problems completely by the research strength of the hydropower development enterprises themselves. It needs to combine the enterprises, universities and research institutes to collaborative solve these problems, which mean it has great practical and social significance to the Yalong river Virtual Research Center (VRC).
Background of the cascade hydropower development of Yalong river basin, this research introduce of information theory, system theory, game theory, cybernetics, synergetics and other theories and methods, explore and establish the virtual organization management theory and methods based on the complex science theory, modern information methods and technical means, research the principle and operating mechanism of Yalong river VRC, and the main contents and innovative results are listed as follows.
(1)According to the demand characteristics of Ertan company technological innovation and the engineering background of hydropower development of Yalong river basin, the necessity and feasibility for the formation of the Yalong river VRC are demonstrate firstly and the Yalong river VRC organization structure is designed. Secondly, the complexity and the uncertainty in selecting partner of VRC are revealed, then a novel evaluation model based on support vector machine and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (SVM-FAHP) is proposed. The problems caused by too many cooperative partners are solved and the classification precision and decision-making efficiency are both improved. This research results can provide decision supports for VRC's formation and operation.
(2)The trust mechanism, benefit distribution mechanism, incentive mechanism, decision mechanism and coordination mechanism of the Yalong river VRC are discussed and studied. Three project management models such as joint management, vertical management and independent management are also proposed. To solve the problems caused by the opportunism and self-protection of knowledge sharing in virtual research center (VRC), a knowledge sharing decision model based on Stackelberg leader-follower game is proposed. The equilibrium values of relevant efforts made by both parties in knowledge sharing, the knowledge sharing rates of members and the total expected gain from knowledge sharing are determined in the decision-making process. Then the relationship among the parameters of game results was analyzed. The results show that it is an effective way for members of VRC to maximize the benefits of each other and improve the project team performance by building the knowledge sharing decision model proposed above.
(3)It can directly promote innovation and competitiveness ability of VRC to build a knowledge management system which has agility, flexibility and distributed characters. Based on the analysis of system components and features of Knowledge management system, a comprehensive model of the knowledge management system (KMS) of the virtual research center based on Web Service is proposed. Then the knowledge management system of the virtual research center of Yalong river hydropower development is built. The results show that it is an effective way for VRC to realize sharing, communication and innovation of knowledge and enhance the VRC's competitiveness in a complex environment through building a knowledge management system based on the Web Service model.
(4)To solve the problems caused by the fuzzy decision making, quantifying the qualitative indexes and dealing with the interdependence and interaction of some indexes during the process of VRC performance evaluation, an index evaluation system is first established and the interactive relationships of the evaluation indexes are analyzed. Then the method of evaluating comprehensive performance based on triangle fuzzy analytic network process is proposed. A multi-criteria complex evaluation model and arithmetic are constructed with nonlinear combination of indexes relations. The research can provide decision supports for VRC to reduce project operating costs and improve operational performance.
(5)According to the demand of technological innovation and research management of Ertan company, Research work take the knowledge management theoretical research results of VRC as a guide, and design the VRC project management model, analyze the mapping relationship of VRC information flow and establish integrated topology which can support load balancing strategy by the business process reengineering. Then the advanced application functions of information platform for Yalong river VRC are realized. Finally the future development of Yalong River VRC information platform is expected. In addition, the disintegration forms for VRC and its development strategies are also analyzed and discussed.
引文
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