面向生态文明的水资源综合调控研究
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摘要
“建设生态文明”是我国面对资源约束趋紧、环境污染严重、生态系统退化的严峻形势提出的新的发展思路与模式。在水资源的开发、利用和保护中贯彻生态文明,必须把“水资源—经济社会—生态环境”作为一个系统来观察,分析水资源的稳定供给、经济社会发展和生态环境保护三者间内在协同机制,寻找最合适的水资源开发利用和生态环境保护路径。本文以建设区域生态文明为前提,保障经济社会和生态环境的协调稳定发展为目标,提出面向生态文明的水资源综合调控。探索面向生态文明的水资源综合调控关键技术与方法,科学合理配置区域水资源。
本文分为理论和应用实例两部分。其中第一章至第三章为理论部分,主要介绍面向生态文明的水资源综合调控理论与方法；第四章至第六章为应用实例,主要介绍了构建的理论体系框架和关键技术在洞庭湖的应用；第七章对全文进行了总结,归纳了论文的主要创新点、取得的主要研究成果、存在的不足和下一步研究展望。通过对面向生态文明水资源综合调控技术的研究,得到以下初步结论：
(1)对水资源的调控,其目的归根到底是为人服务,使人能够认识到的水资源利用效益的多元性,从而在进行水资源配置时更能兼收并蓄,从而对取水、用水、耗水和排水进行调控,使得调控后的取用耗排更科学合理,实现综合效益的最优化。
(2)面向生态文明的水资源调控模型可以模拟水资源合理配置的水循环响应状况,并实时动态配置和模拟,模拟经济发展规模及产业结构调整下工农业、生活、生态环境的用水过程,并在每个规划水平年,按照给定的用水水平逐月进行长系列供用平衡模拟,合理配置研究区域水资源。
结合洞庭湖的区情水情,开展了面向生态文明的洞庭湖水资源综合调控,得到以下初步结论：
(1)通过对洞庭湖区水资源演变规律分析,从上世纪八十年代到九十年代中期,洞庭湖区年降水的增长趋势较为明显,而进入二十一世纪后降水量后呈现减少的趋势。洞庭湖区湘、资、沅、澧四水的水资源情势未发生明显变化；但三口河系水资源量呈现出一定的下降趋势,而且枯水期径流的下降趋势尤为明显。三峡工程运行以后,上荆江(枝城—藕池口)段河床下切导致三口分流量进一步减少,对荆南三口地区水资源开发利用产生了不利影响。
(2)在洞庭湖区生态文明建设中,要求将生态文明理念融入到水资源开发和保护中去,要尽快形成区域水资源统一配置格局,进一步研究洞庭湖生态需水量,完善重点区域水资源调配体系。
(3)针对洞庭湖区水资源问题时空变异性突出的特点,以流域水循环过程为基础,根据流域产汇流特点并结合现有水利工程的情况,将行政单元结合其取用水的水力联系进行划分,将湖区水资源系统概化为一个涵盖水资源取、用、耗、排过程的多层次物理模型。洞庭湖区水资源配置结果如下：2008现状水平年在P=50%、P=75%和95%保证率下缺水量分别为2.24亿m3、11.82亿m3和22.84亿m3,湖区综合缺水率分别为2.49%、12.15%和21.13%；2020水平年在P=50%、P=75%和P=95%情况下缺水量分别为3.22亿m3、13.64亿m3和26.13亿m3,缺水率分别为2.90%、11.45%和19.98%；2030水平年在P=50%、P=75%和P=95%情况下缺水量分别为2.84亿m3、12.57亿m3和25.06亿m3,缺水率分别为2.31%、9.65%和17.67%。
(4)与现状水平年相比,在充分考虑节水、挖潜并适当新增供水工程的情况下,通过水资源合理配置,洞庭湖区的用水保证程度得到了提高,总体缺水率呈现出一定的下降趋势,但仍存在一定程度的供需缺口。一方面需要进行供水设施的更新改造、水库的除险加固、内湖与哑河的整治与开发利用等；一方面需要适当新增部分蓄、引、提水利工程,扩大湖区供水能力以满足经济社会发展的需求。在缺水逐渐突显的荆南三口地区,可建立闸控工程适当增大从长江的引水量,增大枯水期三口河系的分流量,缓解该地区的水资源供需矛盾。
In this thesis, the objectives of the research are to ensure the coordinated development of socio-economic and ecological environment in the region by analyzing the water issues in-depth and systematically, and to propose an ecological civilization oriented integrated water resources regulation model, which would enable the scientific, structural and rational allocation of regional water resources and water use. Such a scheme would support the sustainable development of a social economy.
In this thesis, the Dongting Lake is chosen as the research pilot area due to the prevailing water stressed issues. Based on the current situation of water resources, as well as the needs for future eco-civilization construction and socio-economic development, a comprehensive structure for ecological civilization-oriented water resources allocation scheme has been proposed. At the same time, the issue of a rationalized water resources allocation system has been examined. The proposed allocation scheme has been applied to allocate and adjust the water supply and water demand structure in the Dongting Lake area. The proposed scheme will also improve the efficiency and effectiveness of regional water resources utilization through the development of a water-saving society. Furthermore, it will also enable the realization of a full control of water resources in time and spatial, and achieve stable development of socio-economic and ecological environment. The main content of the thesis are as follows:
(1) Set out the theoretical basis for ecological civilization-oriented integrated control and regulation of water resources
Water resource is the core constraint of the construction of ecological civilization. The theoretical basis for ecological civilization oriented water resources control includes3parts: macro-economics, green development theory and ethical basis. The purpose of water resources regulation is to serve human beings, enable people to recognize the diversity of water use efficiency, thereby to control the process of water intake, water use, water consumption, and drainage, in order to allocate the water resources more scientifically and optimize overall efficiency.
(2) Established an ecological civilization oriented river basin water resources control model
Based on the needs, objectives, constraints, and regional ecological civilization requirement for water resources control, an ecological civilization oriented water resources control model was developed. The model can be divided into five layers:regional macroeconomic forecasting model, the ecosystem succession model, water resources carrying capacity model, water system evolution model, and rationalised economic-ecosystem water resources simulation model. This model can simulate the water cycle response to the rational allocation of water resources, and realize the real-time dynamic configuration and simulation. For example the model can simulate the scale of economic development, and the industrial, agricultural, and domestic water use process under the industrial restructure, and continuous monthly water balance between supply and consumption at a given water consumption level.
(3) Analysis of the needs of ecological civilization oriented water resources control The annual rainfall in the Dongting Lake area showed a significant upward trend from the1980's to the mid1990's, but decreased after that period. In the21st century the Dongting Lake area enters a dry period. The water resources situation did not change significantly in the Xiang, Zi, Yuan, and Li Rivers, but the runoff showing a decrease trend in the Sankou river system, which is particularly evident in the dry season. After the operation of the Three Gorges Project, the dredging of riverbed in Jingjiang (between Zhicheng and Ouchi) lead to further runoff reduction, which had a negative impact on the Jingnan Sankou region. In the Dongting Lake area of ecological civilization construction, requires the concept of ecological civilization into the development and protection of water resources, the formation of a unified regional water resources allocation pattern, and further study of ecological water demand, and continuous monthly water balance between supply and consumption at a given water consumption level in the Dongting Lake area.
(4) Application of the ecological civilization-based rational water resources allocation scheme in the Dongting Lake area
According to the results of water supply and demand balance, the water resources in Dongting Lake area situation is as follows:(i) the water shortage at the50%,75%and95%guarantee rate in the status quo level year of2008are224million m3,1182million m3and2284million m3respectively,(ii) water shortage ratio in the Lake District are2.49%,12.15%and21.13%;(iii) In2020level year, the water shortage at50%,75%and95%guarantee rate are322million m3,1364million m3and2613million m3;(iv) water shortage ratio are2.90%,11.45%and19.98%.(v) In2030level year, the water shortage volume at50%,75%and95%are284million m3,1257million m3and2506million m3, and the shortage ratio are2.31%,9.65%and17.67%.
As can be seen from the above results, full considerations were given to water saving, the potential, and appropriateness of new water supply projects, and through the rational allocation of water resources, the assurance of water supply in the Dongting Lake area has been improved compared with the status quo level year. The overall water shortage rate shows a downward trend, but there are still a gap between water supply and demand to some certain extent. On the one hand there is a need for improving of the water supply facilities, reservoir reinforcement, inland rivers and lakes, harnessing and their further development and utilization. On the one hand, there is a need for new and appropriate water conservancy projects in order to expand the water supply capacity to meet the fast economic and social development needs in the Lake District. For the Jingnan-Sankou water resource deterforation region, sluice gates will increase the amount of diverted water from the Yangtze River, promote the construction of river remediation, river and lake connectivity projects, and other ancillary works.
本文分为理论和应用实例两部分。其中第一章至第三章为理论部分,主要介绍面向生态文明的水资源综合调控理论与方法；第四章至第六章为应用实例,主要介绍了构建的理论体系框架和关键技术在洞庭湖的应用；第七章对全文进行了总结,归纳了论文的主要创新点、取得的主要研究成果、存在的不足和下一步研究展望。通过对面向生态文明水资源综合调控技术的研究,得到以下初步结论：
(1)对水资源的调控,其目的归根到底是为人服务,使人能够认识到的水资源利用效益的多元性,从而在进行水资源配置时更能兼收并蓄,从而对取水、用水、耗水和排水进行调控,使得调控后的取用耗排更科学合理,实现综合效益的最优化。
(2)面向生态文明的水资源调控模型可以模拟水资源合理配置的水循环响应状况,并实时动态配置和模拟,模拟经济发展规模及产业结构调整下工农业、生活、生态环境的用水过程,并在每个规划水平年,按照给定的用水水平逐月进行长系列供用平衡模拟,合理配置研究区域水资源。
结合洞庭湖的区情水情,开展了面向生态文明的洞庭湖水资源综合调控,得到以下初步结论：
(1)通过对洞庭湖区水资源演变规律分析,从上世纪八十年代到九十年代中期,洞庭湖区年降水的增长趋势较为明显,而进入二十一世纪后降水量后呈现减少的趋势。洞庭湖区湘、资、沅、澧四水的水资源情势未发生明显变化；但三口河系水资源量呈现出一定的下降趋势,而且枯水期径流的下降趋势尤为明显。三峡工程运行以后,上荆江(枝城—藕池口)段河床下切导致三口分流量进一步减少,对荆南三口地区水资源开发利用产生了不利影响。
(2)在洞庭湖区生态文明建设中,要求将生态文明理念融入到水资源开发和保护中去,要尽快形成区域水资源统一配置格局,进一步研究洞庭湖生态需水量,完善重点区域水资源调配体系。
(3)针对洞庭湖区水资源问题时空变异性突出的特点,以流域水循环过程为基础,根据流域产汇流特点并结合现有水利工程的情况,将行政单元结合其取用水的水力联系进行划分,将湖区水资源系统概化为一个涵盖水资源取、用、耗、排过程的多层次物理模型。洞庭湖区水资源配置结果如下：2008现状水平年在P=50%、P=75%和95%保证率下缺水量分别为2.24亿m3、11.82亿m3和22.84亿m3,湖区综合缺水率分别为2.49%、12.15%和21.13%；2020水平年在P=50%、P=75%和P=95%情况下缺水量分别为3.22亿m3、13.64亿m3和26.13亿m3,缺水率分别为2.90%、11.45%和19.98%；2030水平年在P=50%、P=75%和P=95%情况下缺水量分别为2.84亿m3、12.57亿m3和25.06亿m3,缺水率分别为2.31%、9.65%和17.67%。
(4)与现状水平年相比,在充分考虑节水、挖潜并适当新增供水工程的情况下,通过水资源合理配置,洞庭湖区的用水保证程度得到了提高,总体缺水率呈现出一定的下降趋势,但仍存在一定程度的供需缺口。一方面需要进行供水设施的更新改造、水库的除险加固、内湖与哑河的整治与开发利用等；一方面需要适当新增部分蓄、引、提水利工程,扩大湖区供水能力以满足经济社会发展的需求。在缺水逐渐突显的荆南三口地区,可建立闸控工程适当增大从长江的引水量,增大枯水期三口河系的分流量,缓解该地区的水资源供需矛盾。
In this thesis, the objectives of the research are to ensure the coordinated development of socio-economic and ecological environment in the region by analyzing the water issues in-depth and systematically, and to propose an ecological civilization oriented integrated water resources regulation model, which would enable the scientific, structural and rational allocation of regional water resources and water use. Such a scheme would support the sustainable development of a social economy.
In this thesis, the Dongting Lake is chosen as the research pilot area due to the prevailing water stressed issues. Based on the current situation of water resources, as well as the needs for future eco-civilization construction and socio-economic development, a comprehensive structure for ecological civilization-oriented water resources allocation scheme has been proposed. At the same time, the issue of a rationalized water resources allocation system has been examined. The proposed allocation scheme has been applied to allocate and adjust the water supply and water demand structure in the Dongting Lake area. The proposed scheme will also improve the efficiency and effectiveness of regional water resources utilization through the development of a water-saving society. Furthermore, it will also enable the realization of a full control of water resources in time and spatial, and achieve stable development of socio-economic and ecological environment. The main content of the thesis are as follows:
(1) Set out the theoretical basis for ecological civilization-oriented integrated control and regulation of water resources
Water resource is the core constraint of the construction of ecological civilization. The theoretical basis for ecological civilization oriented water resources control includes3parts: macro-economics, green development theory and ethical basis. The purpose of water resources regulation is to serve human beings, enable people to recognize the diversity of water use efficiency, thereby to control the process of water intake, water use, water consumption, and drainage, in order to allocate the water resources more scientifically and optimize overall efficiency.
(2) Established an ecological civilization oriented river basin water resources control model
Based on the needs, objectives, constraints, and regional ecological civilization requirement for water resources control, an ecological civilization oriented water resources control model was developed. The model can be divided into five layers:regional macroeconomic forecasting model, the ecosystem succession model, water resources carrying capacity model, water system evolution model, and rationalised economic-ecosystem water resources simulation model. This model can simulate the water cycle response to the rational allocation of water resources, and realize the real-time dynamic configuration and simulation. For example the model can simulate the scale of economic development, and the industrial, agricultural, and domestic water use process under the industrial restructure, and continuous monthly water balance between supply and consumption at a given water consumption level.
(3) Analysis of the needs of ecological civilization oriented water resources control The annual rainfall in the Dongting Lake area showed a significant upward trend from the1980's to the mid1990's, but decreased after that period. In the21st century the Dongting Lake area enters a dry period. The water resources situation did not change significantly in the Xiang, Zi, Yuan, and Li Rivers, but the runoff showing a decrease trend in the Sankou river system, which is particularly evident in the dry season. After the operation of the Three Gorges Project, the dredging of riverbed in Jingjiang (between Zhicheng and Ouchi) lead to further runoff reduction, which had a negative impact on the Jingnan Sankou region. In the Dongting Lake area of ecological civilization construction, requires the concept of ecological civilization into the development and protection of water resources, the formation of a unified regional water resources allocation pattern, and further study of ecological water demand, and continuous monthly water balance between supply and consumption at a given water consumption level in the Dongting Lake area.
(4) Application of the ecological civilization-based rational water resources allocation scheme in the Dongting Lake area
According to the results of water supply and demand balance, the water resources in Dongting Lake area situation is as follows:(i) the water shortage at the50%,75%and95%guarantee rate in the status quo level year of2008are224million m3,1182million m3and2284million m3respectively,(ii) water shortage ratio in the Lake District are2.49%,12.15%and21.13%;(iii) In2020level year, the water shortage at50%,75%and95%guarantee rate are322million m3,1364million m3and2613million m3;(iv) water shortage ratio are2.90%,11.45%and19.98%.(v) In2030level year, the water shortage volume at50%,75%and95%are284million m3,1257million m3and2506million m3, and the shortage ratio are2.31%,9.65%and17.67%.
As can be seen from the above results, full considerations were given to water saving, the potential, and appropriateness of new water supply projects, and through the rational allocation of water resources, the assurance of water supply in the Dongting Lake area has been improved compared with the status quo level year. The overall water shortage rate shows a downward trend, but there are still a gap between water supply and demand to some certain extent. On the one hand there is a need for improving of the water supply facilities, reservoir reinforcement, inland rivers and lakes, harnessing and their further development and utilization. On the one hand, there is a need for new and appropriate water conservancy projects in order to expand the water supply capacity to meet the fast economic and social development needs in the Lake District. For the Jingnan-Sankou water resource deterforation region, sluice gates will increase the amount of diverted water from the Yangtze River, promote the construction of river remediation, river and lake connectivity projects, and other ancillary works.
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