胜利油田水资源综合利用工程规划研究
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摘要
近年来，随着胜利油田经济的多元化发展和城镇化进程的加快，必然导致对水资源需求量的增加，与此同时，黄河流域在近十几年来同样经历了一个经济高速发展期，流域内的耗水量大幅度增加，黄河河口段来水量不断减少，断流时间越来越长，造成了以黄河为主要水源的胜利油田供需矛盾不断加剧，供水工程暴露的一些问题亟待解决。本文在分析胜利油田水资源开发利用现状的基础上，重点研究了胜利油田用水发展趋势和供需平衡状况，分析论证了工程规模、措施以及工程优化等问题。具体工作如下：
针对水资源开发利用工程决策中的不确定性问题和非结构性因素等问题的特点，将现有的模糊优化理论引入水资源开发利用工程规划决策问题中，提高工程规划的决策的科学性、合理性和准确性，取得了较好的效果，并产生了较大的实用价值。
通过对规划区内地下水可供水量、黄河水可引进水量与污水回用之和构成规划区内可供水总量的分析和对社会经济发展指标分析和预测，利用曲水弹性系数法、用水积水增长率法、灰色理论法、趋势法等多种方法对规划区内的需水量进行预测，并对不同的方法预测成果评价，最后确定较优的预测值。利用其分析结果对规划区内的水量供需平衡问题进行分析，并得出下一步的规划结论。
本文提出了一种确定出、入水库工程规模，水库蒸发、渗流水损失的方法。利用前述方法先得到各种计算参数，然后运行平原水库规模调节计算程序，得出各区规划水平所需工业水库库容和农业水库库容。
In recent years, with the development of the economy in Shengli oil-field, the water resources demand has increasingly added. At the same time, the yellow river valley economy has gain the significant increment in the last ten years, so its water use continually increases. The water measure of the yellow river mouth in Shengli oil-field continuously has reduced, and breaking flowing time has become more and more , resulting in the contradict with oil-field supply and demand turning worse continuously. On the foundation of the analysis of the water resources actuality in Shengli oil-field water resources, the paper points at the study of the characteristics of the Shengli oil-field water resources and use the water development trend with the equilibrium condition in supply and demand, and the analysis of engineering scale, measure and engineering optimum. The main work is as follows:
The author makes use of the engineering fuzzy optimum design that aim at analysis of engineering uncertainty factors, in order to get making-decision of hydraulic engineering increase science, rationality of the decision. It results in engineering programming with accuracy, obtained the good result and practical value.
The author analyses supply water quantity of groundwater, the Yellow River water and the dirty water that can be reuse, and predicts society and economy factors. Then the water flexibility coefficient method and gray theories method, trend method etc are made use of in order to program the needs of water and these methods was evaluated to make sure the reasonable estimate value finally. On the foundation of its analysis result the equilibrium problem in supply and demand is proceeded the analysis to gain the next programming conclusions.
The paper presents the method that makes sure the reservoir engineering scale and flowing water loses. According to the above certain calculation parameter, the author make use of the plain reservoir scale program in order to program the industry reservoir scale and the agriculture reservoir scale.
针对水资源开发利用工程决策中的不确定性问题和非结构性因素等问题的特点，将现有的模糊优化理论引入水资源开发利用工程规划决策问题中，提高工程规划的决策的科学性、合理性和准确性，取得了较好的效果，并产生了较大的实用价值。
通过对规划区内地下水可供水量、黄河水可引进水量与污水回用之和构成规划区内可供水总量的分析和对社会经济发展指标分析和预测，利用曲水弹性系数法、用水积水增长率法、灰色理论法、趋势法等多种方法对规划区内的需水量进行预测，并对不同的方法预测成果评价，最后确定较优的预测值。利用其分析结果对规划区内的水量供需平衡问题进行分析，并得出下一步的规划结论。
本文提出了一种确定出、入水库工程规模，水库蒸发、渗流水损失的方法。利用前述方法先得到各种计算参数，然后运行平原水库规模调节计算程序，得出各区规划水平所需工业水库库容和农业水库库容。
In recent years, with the development of the economy in Shengli oil-field, the water resources demand has increasingly added. At the same time, the yellow river valley economy has gain the significant increment in the last ten years, so its water use continually increases. The water measure of the yellow river mouth in Shengli oil-field continuously has reduced, and breaking flowing time has become more and more , resulting in the contradict with oil-field supply and demand turning worse continuously. On the foundation of the analysis of the water resources actuality in Shengli oil-field water resources, the paper points at the study of the characteristics of the Shengli oil-field water resources and use the water development trend with the equilibrium condition in supply and demand, and the analysis of engineering scale, measure and engineering optimum. The main work is as follows:
The author makes use of the engineering fuzzy optimum design that aim at analysis of engineering uncertainty factors, in order to get making-decision of hydraulic engineering increase science, rationality of the decision. It results in engineering programming with accuracy, obtained the good result and practical value.
The author analyses supply water quantity of groundwater, the Yellow River water and the dirty water that can be reuse, and predicts society and economy factors. Then the water flexibility coefficient method and gray theories method, trend method etc are made use of in order to program the needs of water and these methods was evaluated to make sure the reasonable estimate value finally. On the foundation of its analysis result the equilibrium problem in supply and demand is proceeded the analysis to gain the next programming conclusions.
The paper presents the method that makes sure the reservoir engineering scale and flowing water loses. According to the above certain calculation parameter, the author make use of the plain reservoir scale program in order to program the industry reservoir scale and the agriculture reservoir scale.
引文
1．(美)莱斯特·布朗，等．中国缺水将动摇世界粮食安全．战略与管理，1998，(6)：72—80．
2．高振刚．资源经济论纲．管理世界，1992，(5)：184—188．
3．黄少安．产权经济学．山东人民出版社，1995．
4．李金昌．我国资源与环境．新华出版社，1988．
5．罗其友．21世纪节水农业持续推进的战略思考．农业技术经济，1999，(3)：5—9．
6．彭珂珊．走向21世纪困扰中国经济发展的水资源问题．科学管理研究，1997，(6)：4—8
7．许新宜，等．我国水资源保护现状与问题．管理世界，1990，(3)：177—178．
8．余天心，贾康．解决我国水资源危机出路的探讨．管理世界，1994，(4)：187—194．[责任编辑：包德坚]—431—
9．赵士洞，王礼茂．可持续发展的概念和内涵．自然资源学报，1996，11(3)．10-13
10．陈家琦．可持续的水资源开发与利用．自然资源学报，1995，10(3)：6-8．
11．夏军．可持续水资源系统管理研究与展望．水科学进展，1997，8(4)：14-17．
12．李金昌．试论资源可持续利用的评价指标．中国人口·资源与环境，1997，7(3)：7-9．
12. Zadeh L A., Fuzzy Sets as a Basis for a Theory of Possibility, Fuzzy Sets and System, 1978(1)
13．王光远，工程软设计理论，科学出版社，1992
14．陈守煜，系统模糊决策理论与应用，大连理工大学出版社，1994
15．陈守煜，工程模糊集理论与应用，国防工业出版社，1998
16．何新贵，模糊知识处理的理论与技术，国防工业出版社，1991
17．陈守煜，多阶段多目标决策系统模糊优选理论及其应用，水利学报，1990，(1)
18．陈守煜，模糊优选理论与模型，应用数学，1993，(1)
19．陈守煜，赵英琪，系统层次分析模糊优选模型，水利学报，1988，(10)
20．何新贵，模糊集间的语意关联度及其应用，软件学报，1993(2)
2．高振刚．资源经济论纲．管理世界，1992，(5)：184—188．
3．黄少安．产权经济学．山东人民出版社，1995．
4．李金昌．我国资源与环境．新华出版社，1988．
5．罗其友．21世纪节水农业持续推进的战略思考．农业技术经济，1999，(3)：5—9．
6．彭珂珊．走向21世纪困扰中国经济发展的水资源问题．科学管理研究，1997，(6)：4—8
7．许新宜，等．我国水资源保护现状与问题．管理世界，1990，(3)：177—178．
8．余天心，贾康．解决我国水资源危机出路的探讨．管理世界，1994，(4)：187—194．[责任编辑：包德坚]—431—
9．赵士洞，王礼茂．可持续发展的概念和内涵．自然资源学报，1996，11(3)．10-13
10．陈家琦．可持续的水资源开发与利用．自然资源学报，1995，10(3)：6-8．
11．夏军．可持续水资源系统管理研究与展望．水科学进展，1997，8(4)：14-17．
12．李金昌．试论资源可持续利用的评价指标．中国人口·资源与环境，1997，7(3)：7-9．
12. Zadeh L A., Fuzzy Sets as a Basis for a Theory of Possibility, Fuzzy Sets and System, 1978(1)
13．王光远，工程软设计理论，科学出版社，1992
14．陈守煜，系统模糊决策理论与应用，大连理工大学出版社，1994
15．陈守煜，工程模糊集理论与应用，国防工业出版社，1998
16．何新贵，模糊知识处理的理论与技术，国防工业出版社，1991
17．陈守煜，多阶段多目标决策系统模糊优选理论及其应用，水利学报，1990，(1)
18．陈守煜，模糊优选理论与模型，应用数学，1993，(1)
19．陈守煜，赵英琪，系统层次分析模糊优选模型，水利学报，1988，(10)
20．何新贵，模糊集间的语意关联度及其应用，软件学报，1993(2)