气候变化背景下我国农业水热资源时空演变格局研究
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摘要
农业水热资源是开展农业区划、种植制度、作物布局和作物品种配置的重要依据，其数量及配置影响一个地区的农业生产基本格局。在全球气候变化的背景下，我国的农业水热资源已发生显著的变化，导致我国农业种植结构和作物布局也发生相应的改变。系统地分析50年来中国农业水热资源的时空演变格局，对合理高效利用农业资源，适应和减缓气候变化对农业生产的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文以我国及其十大农业种植区为研究对象，以逐日地面气象观测资料为数据源，结合土地覆盖数据、数字高程数据等空间数据，探讨地面气象观测资料缺失情况及其对气候变化趋势分析的影响，设计和编译了一套关于气象观测资料数据缺失的空间插补方法和程序，通过插补试验，提出了最优插补方案。在此基础上，阐明了全国及十大农业种植区作物生长季期间农业水热资源、农业界限温度与霜期的时空演变规律，在时间尺度上评估50年来在不同积温段下农业用地的空间动态变化，分析我国干湿气候演变趋势，从气象干旱角度估算50年来全国干旱发生的面积和强度。主要的研究结论如下：
（1）采用NN、IDW、IDWE、GIDW、MRLAD、GWR等6种空间插补方法进行插补试验，表明幂指数为2-3时IDW、IDWE、GIDW插补效果最优；最优的搜索半径和插补台站数分别为250km～500km和6～20个；较传统方法，基于高程的插补方法可显著提高气温的插补精度，但对其他气象要素插补效果的改善不明显；各气象要素的插补误差在年内存在明显的差异；最优的插补方案为降水量、日照时数、平均风速、相对湿度适宜采用IDW法，日平均气温、日最低气温、日最高气温更适宜采用GIDW或GWR。
（2）50年来，作物生长季期间全国积温和日平均气温都显著增加，而日较差、日照时数和太阳辐射量都显著减少，而期间的全国平均降水量和潜在蒸散量变化不明显，且在区域上存在差异。在“西南—东北”一线降水量、有效降水量和有效降水次数明显较少，而在“东南—西北”一线呈增加的趋势。影响生长季期间农业水热资源量的主要因素是年内气候资源的多寡，其次是生长季持续时间的长短，但这种影响存在区域不一致性。
（3）全国稳定通过0℃、10℃的初日显著提前，终日延后，持续日数增加，积温提高50～90℃/10a，突变时间主要集中在20世纪80年代后期至90年代中期；同时，初霜日显著延后，终霜日提前，无霜期增加2.5～5d/10a。
（4）低积温段内的耕地面积、林地和草地面积在减少，高积温段内的面积在增加。较20世纪60年代，20世纪初期我国≥0℃积温段Ⅰ、≥0℃积温段Ⅱ、≥0℃积温段Ⅳ耕地面积分别减少了7.74%、32.42%、8.39%，≥0℃积温段Ⅴ耕地面积增加43.66%；≥10℃积温段Ⅱ、≥10℃积温段Ⅳ耕地面积分别减少35.14%和20.80%，≥10℃积温段Ⅴ耕地增加21.05%。
（5）在“西南—东北”一带趋于干旱，在“东南—西北”一带趋于湿润化。21世纪初期较1960年我国极干旱区、半干旱区面积分别增加了56.92%和28.13%，干旱区和半湿润区面积分布减少了12.30%和11.43%。全国干旱面积整体上呈弱的下降趋势，但区域上存在不一致性。东北、华北、西南和华南干旱面积都显著增加，东南沿海、西北内陆和青藏高原干旱面积有所减少。
论文主要创新点：
（1）提出针对气象资料数据缺失的空间插补方法和最优插补方案。结合空间插值方法和理论，设计和编译一套关于气象观测资料数据缺失问题的空间插补方法和程序，通过插补试验，探讨幂指数大小、搜索半径、插补点数、是否考虑高程等因素对气象要素插补精度的影响，提出针对不同气象要素的最优插补方案。
（2）揭示我国作物生长季期间农业水热资源的时空演变格局。以稳定通过5℃界限温度的时间段作为作物生长季划分的标准，较系统地揭示全国及十大农业种植区域热量（积温、日平均气温、日较差、日照时数、太阳辐射）、水分（降水量、有效降水量、降水次数、潜在蒸散量）的时空演变格局。
（3）估算不同积温段下农业用地和干湿气候类型的空间动态变化。将积温和干湿气候类型的动态变化与土地覆盖数据集相结合，在时间尺度上估算不同积温段下耕地和干湿气候类型区域的空间动态变化。
The agricultural water and thermal resources is an important basis of agricultural zoning, croppingsystems, crop distribution and crop varieties configuration, and its number and allocation determines thebasic agricultural production conditions in a region. China's agricultural water geothermal resources hasbeen a significant change with global warming in last50years, resulting in the significant change ofChina's agricultural planting structure and crop distribution. Systematic analysis of the spatial andtemporal variability and trends of the China Agricultural water and thermal resources in the past50years has an important practical significance to the efficient use of agricultural resource, and adaptationand mitigation of climate change on agricultural production.
The paper illustrates the effects of the data gaps of china’s surface climatological observationaldata on climate change trends, and then a set of interpolation programs for meteorological missing datais designed and compiled with spatial interpolation methods. Through interpolation trial, we put forwardthe optimal interpolation scheme. On this basis, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability andtrends of agriculture water and thermal resources, agricultural critical temperature and frost period.Dynamic change of agricultural land area in different accumulated temperature sections is analyzedfrom the time scale. Further, we analyze the wetness and dryness change in China, and estimate thedrought area and intensity. The major conclusions are as follows:
(1) The different spatial interpolation algorithms are compiled and evaluated to bridge the missinggaps of meteorological observational dataset. The algorithms used are deterministic methods such asNN, IDW, IDWE, GIDW, MRLAD, GWR. The cross validation of the results indicates that the optimalexponent of the IDW, IDWE, GIDW is2-3, and the optimal search radius is250km to500km, and theoptimal interpolation number of station is6-20. When temperature is interpolated, the elevation-aidedinterpolations (EAI) are significantly better than bivariate interpolations. However, the EAIimprovement isn't significant when other climate resources are interpolated. Furthermore, theinterpolation errors of various meteorological elements are obvious differences in the calendar months.Precipitation, sunshine hours, average wind speed, relative humidity is suitable to the IDW algorithm,and temperature is preferable to the GIDW or GWR algorithm.
(2) The national average accumulated temperature and daily average temperature are significantlyincreasing in the past50years in crop growing season, and however diurnal, sunshine hours and solarradiation are significantly decreasing. At the same time, the national average precipitation and potentialevapotranspiration don't change on the whole, and however the changes differ from region to region.The precipitation and the amount and number of effective precipitation has fell in the southwest andnortheast China, and also has rose in the southeast and northeast China. The primary factor determiningthe amount of agricultural resources is the amount of climatic resources in calendar year, and thesecondary is the duration of growing season. However, the primary factor also can vary from regions.
(3) The trends of agricultural critical temperature (0℃,10℃) present the characteristics of first daybecoming earlier, terminal day postponing, duration prolonging, and the accumulated temperatureincreasing by50-90℃/10a, and mutations occurring mainly in the late1980s to the mid-1990s.Similarly, the first frost date significantly delayed, the last frost date became earlier, and the frost-freeperiod increased by2.5-5d/10a.
(4) The areas of arable land, woodland and grassland in the section of low accumulatedtemperature were decreasing, and those in the section of high accumulated temperature were increasing.Compared with the1960s, the arable land areas in the section Ⅰ, section Ⅱ, and section Ⅳ ofaccumulated temperature over0℃(AT0℃) respectively decreased by7.74%,32.42%,8.39%, and theareas in the section Ⅴ increased by43.66%. Likewise, the arable land areas in the section Ⅱ, andsection Ⅳ of AT10℃also fell by35.14%and20.80%, and the areas in the section Ⅴ rose by21.05%.
(5) The climate in the southwest and northeast China became drought, and however the climate inthe southeast and northwest China became wet over past50years. Compared to1960s, the extremelyarid area and the semi-arid area respectively expanded by56.92%and28.13%. The arid area andsemi-humid area fell by12.30%and11.43%at the same time. The weak downward trend of droughtareas is detected, but trends differ from region to region. The drought areas in the northeast, southeast,and southern China have significantly rose, and the areas in the southeast coast, the northwest inlandhave declined.
The innovations of the research are as follows:
(1) A set of interpolation programs for meteorological missing data is designed and compiled withspatial interpolation methods and theories. The effect of the exponent size, search radius, the number ofinterpolation points, and the elevation on the interpolation accuracy is evaluated through interpolationtrials. The optimal interpolation scheme for the different meteorological elements is given.
(2) The first date and terminal date stably above5℃are regarded as the indicators of the first dateand terminal date of crop growing season. The spatial and temporal variability of agricultural water andthermal resources in the growing season is analyzed.
(3) The spatial dynamic change of the arable land areas in the different sections of accumulatedtemperature and the dryness&wetness climate are estimated on the decadal time scale.
本文以我国及其十大农业种植区为研究对象，以逐日地面气象观测资料为数据源，结合土地覆盖数据、数字高程数据等空间数据，探讨地面气象观测资料缺失情况及其对气候变化趋势分析的影响，设计和编译了一套关于气象观测资料数据缺失的空间插补方法和程序，通过插补试验，提出了最优插补方案。在此基础上，阐明了全国及十大农业种植区作物生长季期间农业水热资源、农业界限温度与霜期的时空演变规律，在时间尺度上评估50年来在不同积温段下农业用地的空间动态变化，分析我国干湿气候演变趋势，从气象干旱角度估算50年来全国干旱发生的面积和强度。主要的研究结论如下：
（1）采用NN、IDW、IDWE、GIDW、MRLAD、GWR等6种空间插补方法进行插补试验，表明幂指数为2-3时IDW、IDWE、GIDW插补效果最优；最优的搜索半径和插补台站数分别为250km～500km和6～20个；较传统方法，基于高程的插补方法可显著提高气温的插补精度，但对其他气象要素插补效果的改善不明显；各气象要素的插补误差在年内存在明显的差异；最优的插补方案为降水量、日照时数、平均风速、相对湿度适宜采用IDW法，日平均气温、日最低气温、日最高气温更适宜采用GIDW或GWR。
（2）50年来，作物生长季期间全国积温和日平均气温都显著增加，而日较差、日照时数和太阳辐射量都显著减少，而期间的全国平均降水量和潜在蒸散量变化不明显，且在区域上存在差异。在“西南—东北”一线降水量、有效降水量和有效降水次数明显较少，而在“东南—西北”一线呈增加的趋势。影响生长季期间农业水热资源量的主要因素是年内气候资源的多寡，其次是生长季持续时间的长短，但这种影响存在区域不一致性。
（3）全国稳定通过0℃、10℃的初日显著提前，终日延后，持续日数增加，积温提高50～90℃/10a，突变时间主要集中在20世纪80年代后期至90年代中期；同时，初霜日显著延后，终霜日提前，无霜期增加2.5～5d/10a。
（4）低积温段内的耕地面积、林地和草地面积在减少，高积温段内的面积在增加。较20世纪60年代，20世纪初期我国≥0℃积温段Ⅰ、≥0℃积温段Ⅱ、≥0℃积温段Ⅳ耕地面积分别减少了7.74%、32.42%、8.39%，≥0℃积温段Ⅴ耕地面积增加43.66%；≥10℃积温段Ⅱ、≥10℃积温段Ⅳ耕地面积分别减少35.14%和20.80%，≥10℃积温段Ⅴ耕地增加21.05%。
（5）在“西南—东北”一带趋于干旱，在“东南—西北”一带趋于湿润化。21世纪初期较1960年我国极干旱区、半干旱区面积分别增加了56.92%和28.13%，干旱区和半湿润区面积分布减少了12.30%和11.43%。全国干旱面积整体上呈弱的下降趋势，但区域上存在不一致性。东北、华北、西南和华南干旱面积都显著增加，东南沿海、西北内陆和青藏高原干旱面积有所减少。
论文主要创新点：
（1）提出针对气象资料数据缺失的空间插补方法和最优插补方案。结合空间插值方法和理论，设计和编译一套关于气象观测资料数据缺失问题的空间插补方法和程序，通过插补试验，探讨幂指数大小、搜索半径、插补点数、是否考虑高程等因素对气象要素插补精度的影响，提出针对不同气象要素的最优插补方案。
（2）揭示我国作物生长季期间农业水热资源的时空演变格局。以稳定通过5℃界限温度的时间段作为作物生长季划分的标准，较系统地揭示全国及十大农业种植区域热量（积温、日平均气温、日较差、日照时数、太阳辐射）、水分（降水量、有效降水量、降水次数、潜在蒸散量）的时空演变格局。
（3）估算不同积温段下农业用地和干湿气候类型的空间动态变化。将积温和干湿气候类型的动态变化与土地覆盖数据集相结合，在时间尺度上估算不同积温段下耕地和干湿气候类型区域的空间动态变化。
The agricultural water and thermal resources is an important basis of agricultural zoning, croppingsystems, crop distribution and crop varieties configuration, and its number and allocation determines thebasic agricultural production conditions in a region. China's agricultural water geothermal resources hasbeen a significant change with global warming in last50years, resulting in the significant change ofChina's agricultural planting structure and crop distribution. Systematic analysis of the spatial andtemporal variability and trends of the China Agricultural water and thermal resources in the past50years has an important practical significance to the efficient use of agricultural resource, and adaptationand mitigation of climate change on agricultural production.
The paper illustrates the effects of the data gaps of china’s surface climatological observationaldata on climate change trends, and then a set of interpolation programs for meteorological missing datais designed and compiled with spatial interpolation methods. Through interpolation trial, we put forwardthe optimal interpolation scheme. On this basis, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability andtrends of agriculture water and thermal resources, agricultural critical temperature and frost period.Dynamic change of agricultural land area in different accumulated temperature sections is analyzedfrom the time scale. Further, we analyze the wetness and dryness change in China, and estimate thedrought area and intensity. The major conclusions are as follows:
(1) The different spatial interpolation algorithms are compiled and evaluated to bridge the missinggaps of meteorological observational dataset. The algorithms used are deterministic methods such asNN, IDW, IDWE, GIDW, MRLAD, GWR. The cross validation of the results indicates that the optimalexponent of the IDW, IDWE, GIDW is2-3, and the optimal search radius is250km to500km, and theoptimal interpolation number of station is6-20. When temperature is interpolated, the elevation-aidedinterpolations (EAI) are significantly better than bivariate interpolations. However, the EAIimprovement isn't significant when other climate resources are interpolated. Furthermore, theinterpolation errors of various meteorological elements are obvious differences in the calendar months.Precipitation, sunshine hours, average wind speed, relative humidity is suitable to the IDW algorithm,and temperature is preferable to the GIDW or GWR algorithm.
(2) The national average accumulated temperature and daily average temperature are significantlyincreasing in the past50years in crop growing season, and however diurnal, sunshine hours and solarradiation are significantly decreasing. At the same time, the national average precipitation and potentialevapotranspiration don't change on the whole, and however the changes differ from region to region.The precipitation and the amount and number of effective precipitation has fell in the southwest andnortheast China, and also has rose in the southeast and northeast China. The primary factor determiningthe amount of agricultural resources is the amount of climatic resources in calendar year, and thesecondary is the duration of growing season. However, the primary factor also can vary from regions.
(3) The trends of agricultural critical temperature (0℃,10℃) present the characteristics of first daybecoming earlier, terminal day postponing, duration prolonging, and the accumulated temperatureincreasing by50-90℃/10a, and mutations occurring mainly in the late1980s to the mid-1990s.Similarly, the first frost date significantly delayed, the last frost date became earlier, and the frost-freeperiod increased by2.5-5d/10a.
(4) The areas of arable land, woodland and grassland in the section of low accumulatedtemperature were decreasing, and those in the section of high accumulated temperature were increasing.Compared with the1960s, the arable land areas in the section Ⅰ, section Ⅱ, and section Ⅳ ofaccumulated temperature over0℃(AT0℃) respectively decreased by7.74%,32.42%,8.39%, and theareas in the section Ⅴ increased by43.66%. Likewise, the arable land areas in the section Ⅱ, andsection Ⅳ of AT10℃also fell by35.14%and20.80%, and the areas in the section Ⅴ rose by21.05%.
(5) The climate in the southwest and northeast China became drought, and however the climate inthe southeast and northwest China became wet over past50years. Compared to1960s, the extremelyarid area and the semi-arid area respectively expanded by56.92%and28.13%. The arid area andsemi-humid area fell by12.30%and11.43%at the same time. The weak downward trend of droughtareas is detected, but trends differ from region to region. The drought areas in the northeast, southeast,and southern China have significantly rose, and the areas in the southeast coast, the northwest inlandhave declined.
The innovations of the research are as follows:
(1) A set of interpolation programs for meteorological missing data is designed and compiled withspatial interpolation methods and theories. The effect of the exponent size, search radius, the number ofinterpolation points, and the elevation on the interpolation accuracy is evaluated through interpolationtrials. The optimal interpolation scheme for the different meteorological elements is given.
(2) The first date and terminal date stably above5℃are regarded as the indicators of the first dateand terminal date of crop growing season. The spatial and temporal variability of agricultural water andthermal resources in the growing season is analyzed.
(3) The spatial dynamic change of the arable land areas in the different sections of accumulatedtemperature and the dryness&wetness climate are estimated on the decadal time scale.
引文
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