黄淮地区夏季降水异常成因及降尺度预测方法研究
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摘要
黄淮区域地处我国南方雨量丰沛和北方干旱少雨的过渡地带，气候异常成因复杂，预测准确率较低。本文利用400个资料较为完整、分布均匀的站点降水资料，利用REOF技术，将中国降水分成13个区。选择定义的黄淮地区夏季降水为研究对象，分析了在厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜背景下该区域夏季降水异常的成因、外强迫因子及其影响机制。在此基础上，研发动力与统计相结合的降尺度解释应用预测方法，并分析了该方法在以黄淮地区为主的区域气候预报能力。主要结论如下：
（1）根据夏季降水资料，将全国划分为13个区域，这种分区结果使得对全国（尤其是中西部地区）的分区更加清晰和完整。其中将（30oN-36.5oN,105oE-125oE）的区域定义为黄淮地区，包括山西南部、陕西南部、河南、山东大部、江苏、安徽、湖北北部等地区，作为本文的分析和预报对象。
（2）厄尔尼诺背景下，黄淮地区夏季降水偏多时，黄淮地区上空存在北风和西南风的切变，副高偏强，影响黄淮地区夏季降水的海温关键区主要位于热带印度洋和西太平洋区域、亲潮区域和北大西洋中部区域；拉尼娜背景下，黄淮地区夏季降水偏多时，东亚夏季风偏强，极涡偏强，副高偏弱，影响黄淮地区夏季降水的海温关键区主要位于南印度洋、北赤道流和大西洋赤道附近。在厄尔尼诺背景下，热带印度洋海温的全区一致型往往导致黄淮地区夏季降水偏多，在拉尼娜背景下，南印度洋海温的负偶极子型往往导致黄淮区域夏季降水偏多。
（3）当赤道中东太平洋处于厄尔尼诺背景时，热带印度洋海温偏高（低）时，南亚高压偏强（弱），500hPa副热带高压偏强（弱），副高西北侧向黄淮地区输送水汽偏多（少），黄淮地区降水偏多（少）。当赤道中东太平洋处于拉尼娜背景时，前期冬季副热带印度洋海温呈负偶极子模态时，夏季印度洋海盆海温以偏低为主，南半球印度洋上空出现反气旋式环流，阿拉伯海及孟加拉湾上空也出现反气旋式环流，东亚夏季风偏强，水汽大值区流经黄淮地区上空，黄淮地区降水偏多；当前期冬季副热带印度洋海温为正偶极子时，夏季印度洋海盆海温以偏高为主，印度洋上空气旋式环流，105°E越赤道气流偏强，使得中国东部及近海上空出现气旋式环流，副热带高压明显偏东，水汽大值区流经中国东部近海上空，黄淮地区降水偏少。
（4）利用国家气候中心研发的第一代海气耦合模式回算的夏季环流场，结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，研发降尺度解释应用方法。交叉检验结果表明：基于模式高技巧信息的解释应用方法能够明显地提高季节降水预测准确率，并且模式输出的要素技巧在很大程度上影响了解释应用的预测能力。该方法对黄淮地区预测准确率仅达到62.5%。
(5)利用国家气候中心新开发的第二代海陆气冰气候系统模式回报的环流场，筛选出对黄淮地区夏季降水有明确物理意义并且能够被模式模拟出的同期环流因子，利用最优子集回归作为转换函数，去除长期变化趋势分量，建立动力与统计相结合的降尺度预测模型，该模型对黄淮地区夏季降水的趋势预测准确率达到75～85%。发展动力与统计相结合的降尺度预测方法，对提高区域降水的预测能力有一定的可行性。
Huanghuai area lies in the transition band of plentiful rainfall area and arid area.Cause of climate anomaly is complicated. Accuracy rate of summer rainfall predictionis low. In this paper, using400stations rainfall data，evenly distributed all overChina, using orthogonal REOF technology, the rainfall in China is divided into13areas. The summer precipitation in Huang Huai area is selected as the researchobject.Under the background of El Nino and La Nina, the cause of the regionalsummer precipitation anomaly, external forcing and its influence mechanism arestudied. Based on the detrended data, a downscaling interpretation and applicationprediction method is developed. The main results of this research can be summarrizedin the following items:
(1)The result of13regions division makes the partition results in the Midwestdivision more clear and complete. Huanghuai area include The area(30oN-36.5oN,105oE-125oE) is defined as Huanghuai,including suoth of Shanxi,Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, North of Hubei. It is the studying object in thispaper.
(2)Under the background of El Nino, when the precipitation is more inHuanghuai Area, shear line between North and Southwest wind appears on theHuanghuai Area. The Subtropical High is stronger.The key areas which influencesummer precipitation in Huanghuai area mainly locate in tropical India ocean and theWestern Pacific region, the Oyashio region, the central North Atlantic region. Underthe background of La Nina, when the precipitation is more in Huanghuai Area, theEASM and polar vortex are stronger,the Subtropical High is weaker. The key areaswhich influence summer precipitation in Huanghuai area mainly locate in SouthernIndia Ocean, near the North Equatorial current and equatorial the Atlantic.Accordance in the tropical India ocean SST will make the precipitation in HuanghuaiArea more under the background of El Nino. But the negative dipole in SouthernIndia Ocean will make the precipitation in Huanghuai Area more under thebackground of La Nina.
(3) Under the background of El Nino, warmer(colder) SST in tropical IndiaOcean, result in stronger (weaker) South Asia High and Subtropical High.Thus thewater vapor transportation along the northwest side of Subtropical High is more (less)and the precipitation in Huanghuai Area is more(less). Under the background of LaNina, if negative dipole mode in subtropical India Ocean in early winter appeared,SST in India Ocean wuold be low by the summer. Anticyclone would be over thesouthern hemisphere India Ocean and the bay of Bengal, Arabia Sea. The strongerEast Asian summer Monsoon led to more precipitation in Huanghuai area. If positivedipole mode in subtropical India Ocean in early winter appeared, SST in India Oceanwuold be high by the summer. Cyclone would be over the southern hemisphere IndiaOcean. The stronger East Asian summer Monsoon led to more precipitation inHuanghuai area. The stronger cross-equator flow near105°E led to cycloniccirculation on the East of China. Subtropical High was easterly. The precipitation wasless in Huanghuai Area.
(4) Based on the hindcast data of the second generation Coupled-Ocean GeneralClimate Model of National Climate Center, the historical reanalysis data, adownscling method is developed. One-year out cross-validation tests indicate that thedownscaling method is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomalyacross most of China with high and stable accuracy,and is much better than the directCGCM/NCC prediction. The forecast accuracy to the precipitation in NorthernXinjiang, Southern Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet, North China, Southeast Coast, theYangtze River and Guangxi region exceed67%. But in Huanghuai Area the forecastaccuracy is only62.5%.
(5)Based on the hindcast data of the second generation Coupled-Ocean GeneralClimate Model of National Climate Center, the historical reanalysis data, theCorresponding Period circulation factors, which have physical meaning to theprecipitation in Huanghuai Area in Summer and can be simulated by the Model,willbe selected. The trendancy of the factors and the predictand will be eliminated. Adownscaling method is developed. The forecast accuracy of this method to theprecipitation in Huanghuai Area in Summer can reach75～85%. It is feasible toimprove the ability to prediction of regional precipitation to research and developdownscaling method in the future.
（1）根据夏季降水资料，将全国划分为13个区域，这种分区结果使得对全国（尤其是中西部地区）的分区更加清晰和完整。其中将（30oN-36.5oN,105oE-125oE）的区域定义为黄淮地区，包括山西南部、陕西南部、河南、山东大部、江苏、安徽、湖北北部等地区，作为本文的分析和预报对象。
（2）厄尔尼诺背景下，黄淮地区夏季降水偏多时，黄淮地区上空存在北风和西南风的切变，副高偏强，影响黄淮地区夏季降水的海温关键区主要位于热带印度洋和西太平洋区域、亲潮区域和北大西洋中部区域；拉尼娜背景下，黄淮地区夏季降水偏多时，东亚夏季风偏强，极涡偏强，副高偏弱，影响黄淮地区夏季降水的海温关键区主要位于南印度洋、北赤道流和大西洋赤道附近。在厄尔尼诺背景下，热带印度洋海温的全区一致型往往导致黄淮地区夏季降水偏多，在拉尼娜背景下，南印度洋海温的负偶极子型往往导致黄淮区域夏季降水偏多。
（3）当赤道中东太平洋处于厄尔尼诺背景时，热带印度洋海温偏高（低）时，南亚高压偏强（弱），500hPa副热带高压偏强（弱），副高西北侧向黄淮地区输送水汽偏多（少），黄淮地区降水偏多（少）。当赤道中东太平洋处于拉尼娜背景时，前期冬季副热带印度洋海温呈负偶极子模态时，夏季印度洋海盆海温以偏低为主，南半球印度洋上空出现反气旋式环流，阿拉伯海及孟加拉湾上空也出现反气旋式环流，东亚夏季风偏强，水汽大值区流经黄淮地区上空，黄淮地区降水偏多；当前期冬季副热带印度洋海温为正偶极子时，夏季印度洋海盆海温以偏高为主，印度洋上空气旋式环流，105°E越赤道气流偏强，使得中国东部及近海上空出现气旋式环流，副热带高压明显偏东，水汽大值区流经中国东部近海上空，黄淮地区降水偏少。
（4）利用国家气候中心研发的第一代海气耦合模式回算的夏季环流场，结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，研发降尺度解释应用方法。交叉检验结果表明：基于模式高技巧信息的解释应用方法能够明显地提高季节降水预测准确率，并且模式输出的要素技巧在很大程度上影响了解释应用的预测能力。该方法对黄淮地区预测准确率仅达到62.5%。
(5)利用国家气候中心新开发的第二代海陆气冰气候系统模式回报的环流场，筛选出对黄淮地区夏季降水有明确物理意义并且能够被模式模拟出的同期环流因子，利用最优子集回归作为转换函数，去除长期变化趋势分量，建立动力与统计相结合的降尺度预测模型，该模型对黄淮地区夏季降水的趋势预测准确率达到75～85%。发展动力与统计相结合的降尺度预测方法，对提高区域降水的预测能力有一定的可行性。
Huanghuai area lies in the transition band of plentiful rainfall area and arid area.Cause of climate anomaly is complicated. Accuracy rate of summer rainfall predictionis low. In this paper, using400stations rainfall data，evenly distributed all overChina, using orthogonal REOF technology, the rainfall in China is divided into13areas. The summer precipitation in Huang Huai area is selected as the researchobject.Under the background of El Nino and La Nina, the cause of the regionalsummer precipitation anomaly, external forcing and its influence mechanism arestudied. Based on the detrended data, a downscaling interpretation and applicationprediction method is developed. The main results of this research can be summarrizedin the following items:
(1)The result of13regions division makes the partition results in the Midwestdivision more clear and complete. Huanghuai area include The area(30oN-36.5oN,105oE-125oE) is defined as Huanghuai,including suoth of Shanxi,Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, North of Hubei. It is the studying object in thispaper.
(2)Under the background of El Nino, when the precipitation is more inHuanghuai Area, shear line between North and Southwest wind appears on theHuanghuai Area. The Subtropical High is stronger.The key areas which influencesummer precipitation in Huanghuai area mainly locate in tropical India ocean and theWestern Pacific region, the Oyashio region, the central North Atlantic region. Underthe background of La Nina, when the precipitation is more in Huanghuai Area, theEASM and polar vortex are stronger,the Subtropical High is weaker. The key areaswhich influence summer precipitation in Huanghuai area mainly locate in SouthernIndia Ocean, near the North Equatorial current and equatorial the Atlantic.Accordance in the tropical India ocean SST will make the precipitation in HuanghuaiArea more under the background of El Nino. But the negative dipole in SouthernIndia Ocean will make the precipitation in Huanghuai Area more under thebackground of La Nina.
(3) Under the background of El Nino, warmer(colder) SST in tropical IndiaOcean, result in stronger (weaker) South Asia High and Subtropical High.Thus thewater vapor transportation along the northwest side of Subtropical High is more (less)and the precipitation in Huanghuai Area is more(less). Under the background of LaNina, if negative dipole mode in subtropical India Ocean in early winter appeared,SST in India Ocean wuold be low by the summer. Anticyclone would be over thesouthern hemisphere India Ocean and the bay of Bengal, Arabia Sea. The strongerEast Asian summer Monsoon led to more precipitation in Huanghuai area. If positivedipole mode in subtropical India Ocean in early winter appeared, SST in India Oceanwuold be high by the summer. Cyclone would be over the southern hemisphere IndiaOcean. The stronger East Asian summer Monsoon led to more precipitation inHuanghuai area. The stronger cross-equator flow near105°E led to cycloniccirculation on the East of China. Subtropical High was easterly. The precipitation wasless in Huanghuai Area.
(4) Based on the hindcast data of the second generation Coupled-Ocean GeneralClimate Model of National Climate Center, the historical reanalysis data, adownscling method is developed. One-year out cross-validation tests indicate that thedownscaling method is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomalyacross most of China with high and stable accuracy,and is much better than the directCGCM/NCC prediction. The forecast accuracy to the precipitation in NorthernXinjiang, Southern Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet, North China, Southeast Coast, theYangtze River and Guangxi region exceed67%. But in Huanghuai Area the forecastaccuracy is only62.5%.
(5)Based on the hindcast data of the second generation Coupled-Ocean GeneralClimate Model of National Climate Center, the historical reanalysis data, theCorresponding Period circulation factors, which have physical meaning to theprecipitation in Huanghuai Area in Summer and can be simulated by the Model,willbe selected. The trendancy of the factors and the predictand will be eliminated. Adownscaling method is developed. The forecast accuracy of this method to theprecipitation in Huanghuai Area in Summer can reach75～85%. It is feasible toimprove the ability to prediction of regional precipitation to research and developdownscaling method in the future.
引文
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