水电工程工期风险评价中的权重分析研究
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摘要
大型水利水电工程项目是一种投资大、周期长、内部结构综合复杂、涉及因素众多的复杂开放系统。影响该系统的风险因素众多,影响关系错综复杂,工程施工面临的风险较大,因此管理者随时随地的掌握工程面临的风险状况并及时分析产生风险的原因极其重要。
对工程项目进行风险分析的方法,国内外很多学者进行了大量的研究探讨,也给出多种用于风险分析评价的方法,但是这些方法本身都存在固有缺陷;即使目前得到大家一致认可和广泛运用的模糊综合评价法也存在其自身缺陷。
大型水电站项目是我国重要的基础设施建设项目,是关系到国计民生的重要工程。但对于水电站建设,目前还没有建立完整的评价模型,给出完整的风险分析方法。本文通过对大型水电站建设进行全面分析,建立水电站建设工期风险评价模型,运用改进的模糊综合评价方法对其进行风险评价。目前大家广泛运用的模糊综合评价中权重的确定方法,多是采用专家打分法或者是根据专家经验直接给出权重,这种方法确定的权重缺乏科学依据,同样的项目不同的专家会得出不同的结论,风险评价的结果容易得到异议。
本文使用改进模糊层次分析法确定权重,大大减少人为因素对评价结果的影响,基础理论和工程实例数据证明用模糊层次分析法确定的权重更加科学可信,准确度更高。本文将模糊层次分析法与模糊综合评判相结合,对大型水利工程施工风险进行综合评价。
本文对大型水利工程施工风险的研究,主要有以下几个方面:
1.详细分析运用模糊层次分析法确定权重的优越性,建立大型水利工程层次评估体系结构,从而将繁杂的水电站施工风险评估指标条理化和层次化。
2.以层次分析法为基础,提出了基于改进模糊层次分析法的大型水利工程施工风险模糊评判方法,改进模糊层次分析法确定权重,运用程序实现计算过程。模糊层次分析法采用三标度,使得专家很容易对两两因素做出决策,大大减少人为原因对评价结果的影响;而且由优先判断矩阵改造而成的模糊一致性矩阵满足一致性条件,无需再进行一致性检验,该方法简单,更容易掌握。另外,也可大大减少迭代次数,提高收敛速度,满足计算精度的要求。
3.工程实例:对我国某著名水电站项目进行施工风险评价,建立水电站施工风险的层次评估体系模型,专家经验结合工程实际确定评价体系的评价指标,根据风险状态进行分级,选择三角函数作为底层指标的隶属函数,确定各底层指标的隶属函数的参数,将底层评估指标的评估值模糊化,依据模糊综合评判的思路,完成了水电站施工风险的评估。
Large-scale water conservancy and hydropower project is such open systems: large investment、long cycle, the internal structure is complex and the systems involve many complex factors. There are the many factors who have impacts on system , and all the factors have the complex relationship between each other.The risk which the project faces is very complex, so the manager should control risk in time and analysis the reason of the risk.
Many scholars have carry out much research about the project risk analysis approach, and presentrd variety of risk analysis methods. But these methods have their own inherent defects, even fuzzy synthetic discrimination which have been recognized and wide used, have ite shortcomings.
Large-scale water conservancy and hydropower project is an important infrastructure, but there is not a complete evaluation model about it, and give a orbicular risk analysis method.This thesis analysis the whole construction of the large hydropower station,and establish risk assessment models,and then use the improved fuzzy synthetic discrimination to determine the weight.The methods of weight we use before is directly based on the experience of experts, this method of determine weight is lack of scientific basis, and different experta have different conclusions.
The thesis uses the further improved fuzzy AHP to determine weight, the result is more credible and more accuracy. This thesis combines FAHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation , then apply them to large-scale water conservancy construction risk evaluation.
In this thesis, the research about the risk of large-scale water conservancy construction mainly includes the following areas:
1. the thesis expounds ascendancy of using the fuzzy AHP to determine the weight, and establish the model of large-scale water-level assessment, make complicated risk assessment indicators well-organized and hierarchical.
2. Based on the FAHP,the thesis brings forward a comprehensive risk assessment methods about large-scale water conservancy construction, and use program to calculate. FAHP adopts three-scale. So the experts can easily make judgement about two factors, which is more important than the other.In this thesis matrix transforms from the priority matrix to the fuzzy consistent matrix, the result meet the conditions of consistency, no longer need to carry out the consistency test. The method is simple and easier to master. In addition, it can also greatly reduce the number of iterations, improve the convergence rate, meet the requirements of accuracy.
3. The example: the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of risk about a Hydropower Construction of China. In the thesis,the author establishs risk assessment model system. According to national norms ,the author determine the appropriate evaluation criteria for the assessment and confirm the state of risk classification, choose the trigonometric function as an indicator of the underlying membership function, use it to determine Membership functions of the underlying indicators . The membership function of the parameters underlying would assess the indicators to assess the value of fuzzy, based on the fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of ideas, complete risk assessment of the project.
对工程项目进行风险分析的方法,国内外很多学者进行了大量的研究探讨,也给出多种用于风险分析评价的方法,但是这些方法本身都存在固有缺陷;即使目前得到大家一致认可和广泛运用的模糊综合评价法也存在其自身缺陷。
大型水电站项目是我国重要的基础设施建设项目,是关系到国计民生的重要工程。但对于水电站建设,目前还没有建立完整的评价模型,给出完整的风险分析方法。本文通过对大型水电站建设进行全面分析,建立水电站建设工期风险评价模型,运用改进的模糊综合评价方法对其进行风险评价。目前大家广泛运用的模糊综合评价中权重的确定方法,多是采用专家打分法或者是根据专家经验直接给出权重,这种方法确定的权重缺乏科学依据,同样的项目不同的专家会得出不同的结论,风险评价的结果容易得到异议。
本文使用改进模糊层次分析法确定权重,大大减少人为因素对评价结果的影响,基础理论和工程实例数据证明用模糊层次分析法确定的权重更加科学可信,准确度更高。本文将模糊层次分析法与模糊综合评判相结合,对大型水利工程施工风险进行综合评价。
本文对大型水利工程施工风险的研究,主要有以下几个方面:
1.详细分析运用模糊层次分析法确定权重的优越性,建立大型水利工程层次评估体系结构,从而将繁杂的水电站施工风险评估指标条理化和层次化。
2.以层次分析法为基础,提出了基于改进模糊层次分析法的大型水利工程施工风险模糊评判方法,改进模糊层次分析法确定权重,运用程序实现计算过程。模糊层次分析法采用三标度,使得专家很容易对两两因素做出决策,大大减少人为原因对评价结果的影响;而且由优先判断矩阵改造而成的模糊一致性矩阵满足一致性条件,无需再进行一致性检验,该方法简单,更容易掌握。另外,也可大大减少迭代次数,提高收敛速度,满足计算精度的要求。
3.工程实例:对我国某著名水电站项目进行施工风险评价,建立水电站施工风险的层次评估体系模型,专家经验结合工程实际确定评价体系的评价指标,根据风险状态进行分级,选择三角函数作为底层指标的隶属函数,确定各底层指标的隶属函数的参数,将底层评估指标的评估值模糊化,依据模糊综合评判的思路,完成了水电站施工风险的评估。
Large-scale water conservancy and hydropower project is such open systems: large investment、long cycle, the internal structure is complex and the systems involve many complex factors. There are the many factors who have impacts on system , and all the factors have the complex relationship between each other.The risk which the project faces is very complex, so the manager should control risk in time and analysis the reason of the risk.
Many scholars have carry out much research about the project risk analysis approach, and presentrd variety of risk analysis methods. But these methods have their own inherent defects, even fuzzy synthetic discrimination which have been recognized and wide used, have ite shortcomings.
Large-scale water conservancy and hydropower project is an important infrastructure, but there is not a complete evaluation model about it, and give a orbicular risk analysis method.This thesis analysis the whole construction of the large hydropower station,and establish risk assessment models,and then use the improved fuzzy synthetic discrimination to determine the weight.The methods of weight we use before is directly based on the experience of experts, this method of determine weight is lack of scientific basis, and different experta have different conclusions.
The thesis uses the further improved fuzzy AHP to determine weight, the result is more credible and more accuracy. This thesis combines FAHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation , then apply them to large-scale water conservancy construction risk evaluation.
In this thesis, the research about the risk of large-scale water conservancy construction mainly includes the following areas:
1. the thesis expounds ascendancy of using the fuzzy AHP to determine the weight, and establish the model of large-scale water-level assessment, make complicated risk assessment indicators well-organized and hierarchical.
2. Based on the FAHP,the thesis brings forward a comprehensive risk assessment methods about large-scale water conservancy construction, and use program to calculate. FAHP adopts three-scale. So the experts can easily make judgement about two factors, which is more important than the other.In this thesis matrix transforms from the priority matrix to the fuzzy consistent matrix, the result meet the conditions of consistency, no longer need to carry out the consistency test. The method is simple and easier to master. In addition, it can also greatly reduce the number of iterations, improve the convergence rate, meet the requirements of accuracy.
3. The example: the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of risk about a Hydropower Construction of China. In the thesis,the author establishs risk assessment model system. According to national norms ,the author determine the appropriate evaluation criteria for the assessment and confirm the state of risk classification, choose the trigonometric function as an indicator of the underlying membership function, use it to determine Membership functions of the underlying indicators . The membership function of the parameters underlying would assess the indicators to assess the value of fuzzy, based on the fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of ideas, complete risk assessment of the project.
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