中国城乡居民收入差距问题研究
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摘要
改革开放后,中央的工作重心转移到经济建设上来。中国的经济发展战略从此有了根本性的转变。我国人民的物质文化生活水平开始有了较大幅度的提高,此时的以农村改革为开端的经济改革,是有助于城乡居民收入差距的缩小的。事实上,城乡居民收入比也从1978年的2.57下降到1985年的1.86。但是随着市场化取向的改革的不断深化,经济体制改革的中心开始由农村转移到城市,我国城乡居民的收入差距又逐步扩大了。如何有效解决我国城乡居民的收入差距问题,实际上已成为加快我国改革开放的步伐,保持经济建设所必需的繁荣稳定的局面时所必须面对的迫切问题。
本文从我国城乡收入差距的实际状况出发,以改革开放以来历年的中国统计年鉴所公布的数据为基础,结合前人已有的研究成果,采用描述统计学的方法对改革开放以来,我国的城乡收入差距状况进行了回顾,将中国改革开放以来城乡收入差距的变动分为四个阶段,具体分析了各个阶段的特点及各个阶段形成的原因,并且对各省区的城乡收入差距状况与全国的情况加以比较,系统且有重点地探讨了当前影响城乡居民收入差距的主要因素,并在此基础上有针对性地提出了解决城乡居民收入差距问题的对策性建议。
本文的理论分析部分,对过去城乡收入研究的成果和近年的进展作了系统的归纳和总结,指出了当前研究中存在的不足,明确了城乡收入差距研究的切入点和今后研究的方向。
在理论分析基础上,文中运用了大量的统计学和计量经济学为主要工具的实证研究方法。尤其在我国城乡居民收入差距影响因素研究方面,本文利用了相关分析,回归分析,协整理论,格兰杰因果检验以及西方经济学中的弹性理论,得出了各个因素对于城乡收入差距影响的量化结果,因此所得到的结论具有更强的操作性,这可以说也是本文的一个特色。此外,在进行区域对比和影响城乡收入差距的因素分析时,本文利用了城乡教育差距指标和地区经济发展状况指标等多个指标,专门用以从截面上考察我国地区间城乡收入差距状况,在理论和实践操作上,应该说是研究该问题的一种行之有效的方法。
根据理论与实证分析,本文得出的结论认为:我国在解决城乡收入差距的问题上虽然已经做出了很大的努力,但是由于财政实力有限以及其他种种经济制度上的因素,城乡收入差距仍然在不断拉大。因此为使城乡居民收入差距能够逐步缩小,必须有针对性的采取相应的措施。
本文的创新之处在于没有采用传统的指标例如基尼系数、泰尔指数等来考察中国的城乡收入差距,而是紧密结合当前中国城乡收入差距的现状,从城乡收入差距的影响因素出发,多角度的衡量各种因素对于城乡收入差距的影响,并建立了统计模型,对各因素的影响程度加以量化,从而弥补了以往研究中如果从多因素角度考虑城乡收入差距问题时多采用定性分析而从某个因素角度考虑该问题时理论分析过于单薄的不足。
The gravity of the central work has shifted to the economic development since the reform and opening policy was taken. The strategy of economic development in China henceforth had the fundamental transformation. The living standard of our people's material and culture has started to have much enhancement. In this time our government took the countryside reform as the beginning of economic reform and it was helpful to the reduction of the city and countryside inhabitant income gap. In fact, the ratio of the city to countryside inhabitant income also dropped from 2.57 in 1978 to 1.86 in 1985. But with the unceasing deepening of marketability orientation reform, the economic restructuring center has started from the countryside to the city. The gap of city and countryside inhabitant's income expands gradually in our country. In fact how we should solve the question of the differential between the city and countryside inhabitant's income effectively has become an urgent question we must face when we speed up the step of the reform and opening policy and maintain the prosperity and stablility that are necessary for economic development.
This thesis embarks from the differential of the city and countryside income in China on the actual condition, takes the data that have been announced by Chinese statistics yearbook in all previous years as the foundation from 1978 to 2006, unifies the research results of the predecessor, uses the method of the descriptive statistics to review the changes of the city and countryside income differetial, divides the changes into four stages, analyzes characters and reasons of creation at each stage specifically, and compares the condition in various provincial capital areas city and countryside income differential with the national situation. This thesis also discusses the influence of primary factors systematically and emphatically, and pointedly proposes the countermeasure suggestion to solve the questionthe of the city and countryside inhabitant income differential.
This thesis has made the systematical induction and summary to the achievement in past and progress in recent years about the city and countryside income research, pointed out the existing insufficiency in current research, made the breakthrough point and the next research direction the city and countryside income differential research clear in the theoretical analysis part.
This thesis has utilized the massive statistics and econometrics methods as the main tool of real diagnostic research technique on the basis of theoretical analysis . Especially in influence factor research aspect of the city and countryside inhabitant income differential, this thesis has used the correlation analysis, the regression analysis, the cointegration theory, the Granger cause and effect examination as well as the elasticity theory in western microeconomics, obtained the quantification results of influence of each factor regarding the city and countryside income differential, therefore the conclusion has a stronger operationality, and we may say this is a characteristic of this thesis. In addition, when carrying on the regional contrasts and analyzing the factors that affect the city and countryside income differential, this thesis has used the city and countryside education disparity target and the local economic development condition target and other targets specially to inspect the city and countryside income differential condition from the section in various areas in China. This method is a effective method on the theory and practice operation.
According to the theory and the real diagnostic analysis, the conclusion which this thesis obtains thought that although our government has already made very great endeavor to solve the problem of the city and countryside income differential, the city and countryside income differential is still unceasingly enlarging because of fiscal solvency limited as well as other all sorts of economic system factors. Therefore for making the differential of the city and countryside inhabitant income reduce gradually, we must pointedly take the corresponding measure.
The innovation place of this article lies in it does not use the traditional target such as Gini coefficient, Theil index to inspect the city and countryside income differential in China, but closely unites the present situation of the city and countryside income differential in China, embarks from the influence factor of the city and countryside income differential, weights each kind of factor regarding the city and countryside income differential influence in multiple perspectives, establishes the statistical model, performs the quantification to influence of various factors, thus makes up the insufficiency in former study on the city and countryside income differential question that if people study it usually using the qualitative analysis method when from the multi-factor angle and however, almost not using the theoretical analysis method from some factor angle.
本文从我国城乡收入差距的实际状况出发,以改革开放以来历年的中国统计年鉴所公布的数据为基础,结合前人已有的研究成果,采用描述统计学的方法对改革开放以来,我国的城乡收入差距状况进行了回顾,将中国改革开放以来城乡收入差距的变动分为四个阶段,具体分析了各个阶段的特点及各个阶段形成的原因,并且对各省区的城乡收入差距状况与全国的情况加以比较,系统且有重点地探讨了当前影响城乡居民收入差距的主要因素,并在此基础上有针对性地提出了解决城乡居民收入差距问题的对策性建议。
本文的理论分析部分,对过去城乡收入研究的成果和近年的进展作了系统的归纳和总结,指出了当前研究中存在的不足,明确了城乡收入差距研究的切入点和今后研究的方向。
在理论分析基础上,文中运用了大量的统计学和计量经济学为主要工具的实证研究方法。尤其在我国城乡居民收入差距影响因素研究方面,本文利用了相关分析,回归分析,协整理论,格兰杰因果检验以及西方经济学中的弹性理论,得出了各个因素对于城乡收入差距影响的量化结果,因此所得到的结论具有更强的操作性,这可以说也是本文的一个特色。此外,在进行区域对比和影响城乡收入差距的因素分析时,本文利用了城乡教育差距指标和地区经济发展状况指标等多个指标,专门用以从截面上考察我国地区间城乡收入差距状况,在理论和实践操作上,应该说是研究该问题的一种行之有效的方法。
根据理论与实证分析,本文得出的结论认为:我国在解决城乡收入差距的问题上虽然已经做出了很大的努力,但是由于财政实力有限以及其他种种经济制度上的因素,城乡收入差距仍然在不断拉大。因此为使城乡居民收入差距能够逐步缩小,必须有针对性的采取相应的措施。
本文的创新之处在于没有采用传统的指标例如基尼系数、泰尔指数等来考察中国的城乡收入差距,而是紧密结合当前中国城乡收入差距的现状,从城乡收入差距的影响因素出发,多角度的衡量各种因素对于城乡收入差距的影响,并建立了统计模型,对各因素的影响程度加以量化,从而弥补了以往研究中如果从多因素角度考虑城乡收入差距问题时多采用定性分析而从某个因素角度考虑该问题时理论分析过于单薄的不足。
The gravity of the central work has shifted to the economic development since the reform and opening policy was taken. The strategy of economic development in China henceforth had the fundamental transformation. The living standard of our people's material and culture has started to have much enhancement. In this time our government took the countryside reform as the beginning of economic reform and it was helpful to the reduction of the city and countryside inhabitant income gap. In fact, the ratio of the city to countryside inhabitant income also dropped from 2.57 in 1978 to 1.86 in 1985. But with the unceasing deepening of marketability orientation reform, the economic restructuring center has started from the countryside to the city. The gap of city and countryside inhabitant's income expands gradually in our country. In fact how we should solve the question of the differential between the city and countryside inhabitant's income effectively has become an urgent question we must face when we speed up the step of the reform and opening policy and maintain the prosperity and stablility that are necessary for economic development.
This thesis embarks from the differential of the city and countryside income in China on the actual condition, takes the data that have been announced by Chinese statistics yearbook in all previous years as the foundation from 1978 to 2006, unifies the research results of the predecessor, uses the method of the descriptive statistics to review the changes of the city and countryside income differetial, divides the changes into four stages, analyzes characters and reasons of creation at each stage specifically, and compares the condition in various provincial capital areas city and countryside income differential with the national situation. This thesis also discusses the influence of primary factors systematically and emphatically, and pointedly proposes the countermeasure suggestion to solve the questionthe of the city and countryside inhabitant income differential.
This thesis has made the systematical induction and summary to the achievement in past and progress in recent years about the city and countryside income research, pointed out the existing insufficiency in current research, made the breakthrough point and the next research direction the city and countryside income differential research clear in the theoretical analysis part.
This thesis has utilized the massive statistics and econometrics methods as the main tool of real diagnostic research technique on the basis of theoretical analysis . Especially in influence factor research aspect of the city and countryside inhabitant income differential, this thesis has used the correlation analysis, the regression analysis, the cointegration theory, the Granger cause and effect examination as well as the elasticity theory in western microeconomics, obtained the quantification results of influence of each factor regarding the city and countryside income differential, therefore the conclusion has a stronger operationality, and we may say this is a characteristic of this thesis. In addition, when carrying on the regional contrasts and analyzing the factors that affect the city and countryside income differential, this thesis has used the city and countryside education disparity target and the local economic development condition target and other targets specially to inspect the city and countryside income differential condition from the section in various areas in China. This method is a effective method on the theory and practice operation.
According to the theory and the real diagnostic analysis, the conclusion which this thesis obtains thought that although our government has already made very great endeavor to solve the problem of the city and countryside income differential, the city and countryside income differential is still unceasingly enlarging because of fiscal solvency limited as well as other all sorts of economic system factors. Therefore for making the differential of the city and countryside inhabitant income reduce gradually, we must pointedly take the corresponding measure.
The innovation place of this article lies in it does not use the traditional target such as Gini coefficient, Theil index to inspect the city and countryside income differential in China, but closely unites the present situation of the city and countryside income differential in China, embarks from the influence factor of the city and countryside income differential, weights each kind of factor regarding the city and countryside income differential influence in multiple perspectives, establishes the statistical model, performs the quantification to influence of various factors, thus makes up the insufficiency in former study on the city and countryside income differential question that if people study it usually using the qualitative analysis method when from the multi-factor angle and however, almost not using the theoretical analysis method from some factor angle.
引文
[1]江泽民:《在中国共产党第十六次全国代表大会上的报告》2002年11月
[2]引自2004年中央一号文件。
[1]李子奈、潘文卿:《计量经济学》(第二版)高等教育出版社2005年4月第2版
[1]李子奈、潘文卿:《计量经济学》(第二版)高等教育出版社2005年4月第2版
[1]张立军、湛泳:《中国农村金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响-基于1978至2004年数据的检验》中央财经大学学报2006年第5期
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[3]杨宜勇等.收入分配体制改革攻坚中国水利水电出版社2005年1月第1版
[4]陈宗胜 周云波.再论改革与发展中的收入分配经济科学出版社2002年8月第1版
[5]卢嘉瑞等.中国现阶段收入分配差距问题研究 人民出版社2003年6月第1版
[6]白菊红.农村人力资本积累与农民收入研究中国农业出版社2004年4月第1版
[7]李实等.中国居民收入分配实证分析社会科学文献出版社2000年9月第1版
[8]黄祖辉等.中国“三农”问题理论、实证与对策浙江大学出版社2005年6月第1版
[9]权衡.“收入分配-经济增长”的现代分析:转型期中国经验与理论 上海社会科学院出版社2004年9月第1版
[10]马从辉.开放经济条件下居民收入分配问题研究中国财政经济出版社2004年3月第1版
[11]孔泾源.中国居民收入分配理论与政策 中国计划出版社2005年11月第1版
[12]李爽.中国城镇居民收入差距研究 中国计划出版社2002年11月第1版
[13]景天魁.收入差距与利益协调黑龙江人民出版社2006年1月第1版
[14]孔泾源.中国居民收入分配年度报告(2004)经济科学出版社2005年1月第1版
[15]李子奈 潘文卿.计量经济学(第二版)高等教育出版社2005年4月第2版
[16]孙敬水.计量经济学清华大学出版社2004年9月第1版
[17]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用中国统计出版社2002年10月第1版
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[2]引自2004年中央一号文件。
[1]李子奈、潘文卿:《计量经济学》(第二版)高等教育出版社2005年4月第2版
[1]李子奈、潘文卿:《计量经济学》(第二版)高等教育出版社2005年4月第2版
[1]张立军、湛泳:《中国农村金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响-基于1978至2004年数据的检验》中央财经大学学报2006年第5期
[1]向书坚.中国收入分配格局研究 中国财政经济出版社2000年7月第1版
[2]张平.增长与分享居民收入分配的理论与实证社会科学文献出版社2003年4月第1版
[3]杨宜勇等.收入分配体制改革攻坚中国水利水电出版社2005年1月第1版
[4]陈宗胜 周云波.再论改革与发展中的收入分配经济科学出版社2002年8月第1版
[5]卢嘉瑞等.中国现阶段收入分配差距问题研究 人民出版社2003年6月第1版
[6]白菊红.农村人力资本积累与农民收入研究中国农业出版社2004年4月第1版
[7]李实等.中国居民收入分配实证分析社会科学文献出版社2000年9月第1版
[8]黄祖辉等.中国“三农”问题理论、实证与对策浙江大学出版社2005年6月第1版
[9]权衡.“收入分配-经济增长”的现代分析:转型期中国经验与理论 上海社会科学院出版社2004年9月第1版
[10]马从辉.开放经济条件下居民收入分配问题研究中国财政经济出版社2004年3月第1版
[11]孔泾源.中国居民收入分配理论与政策 中国计划出版社2005年11月第1版
[12]李爽.中国城镇居民收入差距研究 中国计划出版社2002年11月第1版
[13]景天魁.收入差距与利益协调黑龙江人民出版社2006年1月第1版
[14]孔泾源.中国居民收入分配年度报告(2004)经济科学出版社2005年1月第1版
[15]李子奈 潘文卿.计量经济学(第二版)高等教育出版社2005年4月第2版
[16]孙敬水.计量经济学清华大学出版社2004年9月第1版
[17]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用中国统计出版社2002年10月第1版
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