基于气候变化的豫西冬小麦保护性耕作效果模拟研究
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摘要
干旱、水土流失、土壤退化等是制约豫西黄土丘陵区旱作农业发展的主要因素。为维持该区农业的可持续性发展,提高有限降水资源的利用率,改善农田土壤环境,研究区以改革和优化农田耕作技术为突破口,发展保护性耕作技术,并取得了较好的效果。近年来,因CO2浓度的升高而导致的全球气候变暖的事实已得到全世界的公认,气候变化对作物生长、经济发展和环境保护等方面的影响也已经受到研究者的关注。特别是在无灌溉条件的旱作雨养农业区,气候是影响作物生长发育的首要因子。因此,在未来气候变化条件下,利用计算机技术科学评价豫西黄土丘陵区保护性耕作技术的效果对于该区应对未来气候变化带来的影响、提高水分生产力、促进旱作农业的可持续发展具有重要的意义和实用价值。
依据黄土丘陵区特点,采用作物模型模拟方法研究全球气候变化条件下,保护性耕作对豫西冬小麦生育环境及其生长发育过程、产量等的影响。在气候变化情景分析中,选取IPCC气候分析报告中的最新温室气体排放方案(SRES)中的A2和B2情景,利用气候模型和天气发生器产生未来长时间系列逐日气象数据,借助DSSAT作物模型,以中国豫西黄土丘陵区孟津县的冬小麦保护性耕作为研究对象,预测分析了未来气候条件下不同耕作方式冬小麦的生长发育指标、产量和水分平衡状况,对未来气候条件下冬小麦保护性耕作的效果进行了评价。论文的主要研究成果有：
1)分析了DSSAT模型的地区适宜性并建立了模型参数体系：利用研究区的田间试验资料完成了DSSAT模型数据库的构建,并对模型进行了验证分析,验证结果表明,模型在对豫西冬小麦生长发育及土壤水分的模拟中显示出良好的适宜性。对冬小麦的叶面积指数、产量和农田土壤水分动态、水分利用效率等的模拟中模拟值与实测值均表现出较好的一致性,RMSE误差值较小,适合豫西坡耕地的冬小麦模拟研究；
2)在A2和B2两种气候情景下,研究区的CO2浓度和平均气温都将升高,降水也会大幅度的增加。气候变化后对研究区冬小麦的生产带来了一定的益处；
3)模型模拟结果表明,在A2和B2两种气候情景下,无论是否考虑CO2的肥效作用,豫西黄土丘陵区旱作冬小麦的产量在未来气候变化情景下都表现出显著的增产趋势。结论认为,未来气温的变化对研究区冬小麦生长的负效应不明显,降水量的增加对未来冬小麦产量的增加起到了主导作用；
4)气候变化后,模型预测结果表明,试验区四种耕作处理下冬小麦的生育期均有缩短,CO2浓度的变化不会对冬小麦的生育期产生影响；四种耕作处理下冬小麦的土壤蒸发量、蒸腾量及水分生产力均有增加；未来气候下冬小麦生物产量将随着CO2浓度的升高而增加;
5)未来气候条件下,豫西黄土丘陵区的降水量、蒸发蒸腾量和农田耗水量均有增加,作物产量也会相应提高,这对发挥干旱半干旱地区冬小麦生产潜力、缓解粮食供应压力起到了积极地作用。相比较可知,采用免耕覆盖处理措施的冬小麦产量预测值增长率最大,对气候变化响应的敏感度最高。
研究结果表明,在未来气候条件下,为减少气温升高对冬小麦生长带来的危害,合理有效地利用未来降水增加的有利条件,孟津县未来冬小麦保护性耕作适宜的耕作模式应为免耕覆盖处理。
Drought, soil erosion and soil degradation are main factors that restricting the agricultural development on the Loess Plateau dry-land in the western region of Henan Province for a long time. Looking for a breakthrough, the researchers reform and optimize the conservation tillage techniques to maintain the sustainable development of agriculture in the area, enhance the utilization efficiency of limited precipitation and improve the soil environment. Then, the encouraging consequence is emerging. In recent years, resulting from the high concentration of green house gases, the global warming has been recognized in all over the world. The impact of climate change on crop growth, economic development and environment protection are more and more concerned by both scholars and officers. The climate condition becomes the primary factor effecting crop growth and development, especially in the agricultural regions of dry rain-fed, such as the West Henan Loess hilly region where the crop yield mostly depends on the weather. Therefore, it is theoretically and practically significant to study on the effect of conservation tillage with the crop model under future climate scenarios in this region.
Based on the characteristics of loess hilly region, this study used the IPCC SRES green house gases emission scenarios A2 and B2 as simulation, combining with the climate model and weather generator, to provide long term future daily weather data. Aiming at studying on the conservation tillage of winter wheat in this region under future climate scenarios, we applied the DSSAT crop model to simulate growth and development process and production of winter wheat that was managed by four kinds of conservation tillages. In addition, we also evaluated the effect of conservation tillage in the future. The main achievements of this study are as follows:
1) Analyzed the regional suitability of DSSAT model and established parameter system of model. We established DSSAT model database and validated it, the DSSAT model verification results showed good suitability in winter wheat growth and development and soil moisture simulations in the western region of Henan province.
2) According to the future climate prediction, the CO2 concentration and the average temperature and precipitation will increase under A2 and B2 climate scenarios in 2020,2050 and 2080 in the western region of Henan. And the winter wheat growth will be improved in the future climate condition.
3) The model simulation indicates that the yield of winter wheat will increase, irrelevant to the fertilizer effect of CO2 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios in this region. So, we believe that the future temperature change hasn't shown obvious negative effect on the growth of winter wheat and the yield of winter wheat will increase because of the accordingly increased precipitation.
4) Under the climate change situation, the model prediction results show that the growth period of winter wheat, managing with four tillage-treatments, is not sensitive to the change of CO2 concentration. Under four kinds of tillage-treatments, soil evapotranspiration and water productivity are elevated. In the future climate conditions, biological yield of winter wheat will increase, along with the rise of CO2 concentration.
5) In the future climate conditions, the precipitation, evapotranspiration, cropland water consumption and crop yields will mount in the western region of Henan; the crop yield increase in this arid and semi-arid area will alleviate the pressure of the increasing population, and gradually improve the food-shortage situation. Relatively, using zero tillage with cover-treatment measures of winter wheat, one of the four tillage-treatments, we can obtain the best growth rate of simulated yield and its response sensitivity to climate change is maximum.
Generally, our study demonstrates that in order to avoid the harm on the winter wheat growth from the warm temperature, and rationally and effectively take the advantage of precipitation under the future climate conditions, the most feasible conservation tillage model should be the zero tillage with cover-treatment measures in the western region of Henan.
依据黄土丘陵区特点,采用作物模型模拟方法研究全球气候变化条件下,保护性耕作对豫西冬小麦生育环境及其生长发育过程、产量等的影响。在气候变化情景分析中,选取IPCC气候分析报告中的最新温室气体排放方案(SRES)中的A2和B2情景,利用气候模型和天气发生器产生未来长时间系列逐日气象数据,借助DSSAT作物模型,以中国豫西黄土丘陵区孟津县的冬小麦保护性耕作为研究对象,预测分析了未来气候条件下不同耕作方式冬小麦的生长发育指标、产量和水分平衡状况,对未来气候条件下冬小麦保护性耕作的效果进行了评价。论文的主要研究成果有：
1)分析了DSSAT模型的地区适宜性并建立了模型参数体系：利用研究区的田间试验资料完成了DSSAT模型数据库的构建,并对模型进行了验证分析,验证结果表明,模型在对豫西冬小麦生长发育及土壤水分的模拟中显示出良好的适宜性。对冬小麦的叶面积指数、产量和农田土壤水分动态、水分利用效率等的模拟中模拟值与实测值均表现出较好的一致性,RMSE误差值较小,适合豫西坡耕地的冬小麦模拟研究；
2)在A2和B2两种气候情景下,研究区的CO2浓度和平均气温都将升高,降水也会大幅度的增加。气候变化后对研究区冬小麦的生产带来了一定的益处；
3)模型模拟结果表明,在A2和B2两种气候情景下,无论是否考虑CO2的肥效作用,豫西黄土丘陵区旱作冬小麦的产量在未来气候变化情景下都表现出显著的增产趋势。结论认为,未来气温的变化对研究区冬小麦生长的负效应不明显,降水量的增加对未来冬小麦产量的增加起到了主导作用；
4)气候变化后,模型预测结果表明,试验区四种耕作处理下冬小麦的生育期均有缩短,CO2浓度的变化不会对冬小麦的生育期产生影响；四种耕作处理下冬小麦的土壤蒸发量、蒸腾量及水分生产力均有增加；未来气候下冬小麦生物产量将随着CO2浓度的升高而增加;
5)未来气候条件下,豫西黄土丘陵区的降水量、蒸发蒸腾量和农田耗水量均有增加,作物产量也会相应提高,这对发挥干旱半干旱地区冬小麦生产潜力、缓解粮食供应压力起到了积极地作用。相比较可知,采用免耕覆盖处理措施的冬小麦产量预测值增长率最大,对气候变化响应的敏感度最高。
研究结果表明,在未来气候条件下,为减少气温升高对冬小麦生长带来的危害,合理有效地利用未来降水增加的有利条件,孟津县未来冬小麦保护性耕作适宜的耕作模式应为免耕覆盖处理。
Drought, soil erosion and soil degradation are main factors that restricting the agricultural development on the Loess Plateau dry-land in the western region of Henan Province for a long time. Looking for a breakthrough, the researchers reform and optimize the conservation tillage techniques to maintain the sustainable development of agriculture in the area, enhance the utilization efficiency of limited precipitation and improve the soil environment. Then, the encouraging consequence is emerging. In recent years, resulting from the high concentration of green house gases, the global warming has been recognized in all over the world. The impact of climate change on crop growth, economic development and environment protection are more and more concerned by both scholars and officers. The climate condition becomes the primary factor effecting crop growth and development, especially in the agricultural regions of dry rain-fed, such as the West Henan Loess hilly region where the crop yield mostly depends on the weather. Therefore, it is theoretically and practically significant to study on the effect of conservation tillage with the crop model under future climate scenarios in this region.
Based on the characteristics of loess hilly region, this study used the IPCC SRES green house gases emission scenarios A2 and B2 as simulation, combining with the climate model and weather generator, to provide long term future daily weather data. Aiming at studying on the conservation tillage of winter wheat in this region under future climate scenarios, we applied the DSSAT crop model to simulate growth and development process and production of winter wheat that was managed by four kinds of conservation tillages. In addition, we also evaluated the effect of conservation tillage in the future. The main achievements of this study are as follows:
1) Analyzed the regional suitability of DSSAT model and established parameter system of model. We established DSSAT model database and validated it, the DSSAT model verification results showed good suitability in winter wheat growth and development and soil moisture simulations in the western region of Henan province.
2) According to the future climate prediction, the CO2 concentration and the average temperature and precipitation will increase under A2 and B2 climate scenarios in 2020,2050 and 2080 in the western region of Henan. And the winter wheat growth will be improved in the future climate condition.
3) The model simulation indicates that the yield of winter wheat will increase, irrelevant to the fertilizer effect of CO2 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios in this region. So, we believe that the future temperature change hasn't shown obvious negative effect on the growth of winter wheat and the yield of winter wheat will increase because of the accordingly increased precipitation.
4) Under the climate change situation, the model prediction results show that the growth period of winter wheat, managing with four tillage-treatments, is not sensitive to the change of CO2 concentration. Under four kinds of tillage-treatments, soil evapotranspiration and water productivity are elevated. In the future climate conditions, biological yield of winter wheat will increase, along with the rise of CO2 concentration.
5) In the future climate conditions, the precipitation, evapotranspiration, cropland water consumption and crop yields will mount in the western region of Henan; the crop yield increase in this arid and semi-arid area will alleviate the pressure of the increasing population, and gradually improve the food-shortage situation. Relatively, using zero tillage with cover-treatment measures of winter wheat, one of the four tillage-treatments, we can obtain the best growth rate of simulated yield and its response sensitivity to climate change is maximum.
Generally, our study demonstrates that in order to avoid the harm on the winter wheat growth from the warm temperature, and rationally and effectively take the advantage of precipitation under the future climate conditions, the most feasible conservation tillage model should be the zero tillage with cover-treatment measures in the western region of Henan.
引文
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