北疆地区干旱监测分析研究
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摘要
干旱已成全球普遍存在的问题,旱灾也已成为近半个世纪以来频繁发生的世界性重大自然灾害,已经严重地影响到人们的生产生活、人类的生存环境、社会的可持续发展。为了合理利用水资源,对干旱进行监测分析研究,掌握干旱发生的规律及时空变化,对旱灾进行有效的防治,抗旱救灾,减少旱灾造成的损失,促进农业发展、经济增长、社会进步具有重要的意义。
本文在总结国内外干旱研究现状的基础上,详细论述了地面干旱监测和遥感干旱监测两种手段。首先,对气象业务常用的三种地面干旱监测指标:降水距平百分率、标准化降水指数、综合干旱指数分别进行统计,分析了各个指标反映的干旱程度在北疆的时空分布状况。其次,根据北疆地区发生的旱灾,分析三种指数对旱灾的响应程度,对其适宜性进行分析,确定了适宜北疆地区的干旱指数。第三,对MODIS数据进行预处理,并对云、雪和水体进行判识。第四,结合GIS技术,提出一种分象元建立不同模型的方法,建立了热惯量法及植被供水指数相结合的遥感干旱监测综合模型,并进行检验,在误差范围内,达到了一定的精度。最后,应用遥感综合模型和地面干旱监测指数分别对北疆地区2008年的干旱程度进行对比监测分析。两类监测方法的结果表明,2008年北疆地区干旱严重,在4月旱情就开始出现,5月底到6月初最为严重,9月旱情减轻,但局部地区仍然严重,并提出了简要的抗旱减灾方案。
The drought has already become a widespread problem of the world. The frequent occurrence of drought has become one of the heavy natural disasters around the world. Drought has severely affected the production, the living environment, and the sustainable social development. Researching on drought and mastering the regulation of time and space variety,have important meaning on preventing drought, reducing the lose caused by drought, enhancing the agriculture development, promoting economy growth, and accelerating the society progress.
In this study,the technology of ground monitoring and remote sensing for drought based on current research of drought are dissertated in detail. At first,three kinds of ground drought monitor index: the percentage rainfall apart from even,standard precipitation index number and comprehensive dry index number, which are usually used in meteorological business,are analyzed to display the distribution of time and space of the drought degree in the North of Xinjiang. Secondly, the response degree and fitness of three kinds of index numbers to the drought are analyzed, and the drought index which is fit of the north of Xinjiang is fixed on with the analysis. Thirdly, the method of identifying cloud, snow and the water is proposed by processing the MODIS data. Fourthly, a new method that building dirfferent model according to every pix is advanced. A synthetical model of drought monitoring by remote sensing, which combining thermal inertia and water supply index of plant, is created. The model is tested, and the results display that it has certain accuracy within the scope of error margin. Finally, remote sensing synthtical model and ground drought monitor index are applied to analyze the degree of drought in the north of Xinjiang in 2008. The results display that drought, which starts in April, gets most serious in June and ease in September, is severe in north region of Xinjiang in 2008. A drought relief strategy is also briefly proposed for this situation.
本文在总结国内外干旱研究现状的基础上,详细论述了地面干旱监测和遥感干旱监测两种手段。首先,对气象业务常用的三种地面干旱监测指标:降水距平百分率、标准化降水指数、综合干旱指数分别进行统计,分析了各个指标反映的干旱程度在北疆的时空分布状况。其次,根据北疆地区发生的旱灾,分析三种指数对旱灾的响应程度,对其适宜性进行分析,确定了适宜北疆地区的干旱指数。第三,对MODIS数据进行预处理,并对云、雪和水体进行判识。第四,结合GIS技术,提出一种分象元建立不同模型的方法,建立了热惯量法及植被供水指数相结合的遥感干旱监测综合模型,并进行检验,在误差范围内,达到了一定的精度。最后,应用遥感综合模型和地面干旱监测指数分别对北疆地区2008年的干旱程度进行对比监测分析。两类监测方法的结果表明,2008年北疆地区干旱严重,在4月旱情就开始出现,5月底到6月初最为严重,9月旱情减轻,但局部地区仍然严重,并提出了简要的抗旱减灾方案。
The drought has already become a widespread problem of the world. The frequent occurrence of drought has become one of the heavy natural disasters around the world. Drought has severely affected the production, the living environment, and the sustainable social development. Researching on drought and mastering the regulation of time and space variety,have important meaning on preventing drought, reducing the lose caused by drought, enhancing the agriculture development, promoting economy growth, and accelerating the society progress.
In this study,the technology of ground monitoring and remote sensing for drought based on current research of drought are dissertated in detail. At first,three kinds of ground drought monitor index: the percentage rainfall apart from even,standard precipitation index number and comprehensive dry index number, which are usually used in meteorological business,are analyzed to display the distribution of time and space of the drought degree in the North of Xinjiang. Secondly, the response degree and fitness of three kinds of index numbers to the drought are analyzed, and the drought index which is fit of the north of Xinjiang is fixed on with the analysis. Thirdly, the method of identifying cloud, snow and the water is proposed by processing the MODIS data. Fourthly, a new method that building dirfferent model according to every pix is advanced. A synthetical model of drought monitoring by remote sensing, which combining thermal inertia and water supply index of plant, is created. The model is tested, and the results display that it has certain accuracy within the scope of error margin. Finally, remote sensing synthtical model and ground drought monitor index are applied to analyze the degree of drought in the north of Xinjiang in 2008. The results display that drought, which starts in April, gets most serious in June and ease in September, is severe in north region of Xinjiang in 2008. A drought relief strategy is also briefly proposed for this situation.
引文
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[8]姚玉壁,张存杰,邓振镛等.气象、农业干旱指数综述[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(1):185-189.
[9]杨金虎,杨启国,姚玉璧等.中国西北夏季干旱指数研究.资源科学[J].2006,28(3):17-22.
[10]杨小利.西北地区气象干旱监测指数的研究和应用[J].气象.2007,33(8):90-96.
[11]周秉荣.基于EOS/MODIS的青海省春季干旱监测模型研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2007.
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[14]Price J C.Thermal inertia mapping:a new view of the earth[Jl.J GeoPhys Res.1977,82:2582.
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[16]Reed,B.C.Using remote sensing and Geogarphic Information Systems for analyzing landscape drought interaction. Intenrational Journal of Remote Sensing.1993 ,14:3489-3503.
[17]Leiji,Albert J.Peters.Assessing vegetation response to drought in the northen Great plains using vegetation and drought indices. Remote Sensing of Environment.2003,85-98.
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[19]刘良明.基于EOS/MODIS数据的遥感干旱预警模型研究[D].湖南:武汉大学,2004.
[20]田国良.热红外遥感[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2006.278-331.
[21]肖乾广、陈维英、郭亮等.用气象卫星监测土壤水分的试验研究[J].应用气象学报,1991.
[22]郭妮,陈添宇,雷建勤,等.用NOAA卫星可见光和红外资料估算甘肃省东部农田区土壤湿度[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(2):212-218.
[23]王鹏新,龚健雅,李小文.条件植被温度指数及其在干旱监测中的应用[]J.武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2001,26:412-418.
[24]齐述华,王长耀,牛铮,等.利用温度植被旱情指数(TVDI)进行全国旱情监测研究[J].遥感学报,2003,7(5):420-423.
[25]范辽生,姜纪红,盛晖等.利用用温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)方法反演杭州伏旱期土壤水分.中国农业气象.2009,30(2):230-234
[26]吴孟泉,温度植被干旱指数TVDI在复杂山区干旱监测的应用研究[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):30-35.
[27]冉琼.全国土壤湿度及其变化的遥感反演与分析[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2005.
[28]闫娜娜.基于遥感指数的旱情监测方法研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2005.
[29]冯蜀青,肖建设,校瑞香.利用卫星遥感对干旱进行实时监测和预警[J].青海气象.2005,4:13-16.
[30]张文宗姚树然赵春雷等,利用MODIS资料监测和预警干旱新方法[J].气象科技,2006,34(4):501-504.
[31]李秀花.中国西北干旱区1981-2001年NDVI与气候变化的关系分析[D].新疆:新疆大学,2006.
[32]盛绍学,马晓群,荀尚培等.基于GIS的安徽省干旱遥感监测与评估研究[J].自然灾害学报.2003,12(1):151-157.
[33]宋连春,邓振镛,董安祥等.干旱[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.1-162.
[34]张家宝,史玉光等.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.141-145.
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