玛纳斯河流域径流对气候变化的响应研究
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摘要
近百年来全球气候正以前所未有的速度变暖,由此引发的冰川消融、极端气候、粮食减产、海平面上升、物种灭绝和空气污染等一系列问题越来越引起人们的关注。玛纳斯河发源于天山北坡依连哈比尔尕山冰川地带,是准噶尔内陆区冰川数量最多、规模最大的一条河流,冰川面积692.5km2,全长324km。作为新疆干旱区典型的内陆河,研究气候变化对流域径流变化的影响,对玛纳斯河流域生态环境、农业生产与居民生活的可持续发展起着至关重要的作用。
本文以玛纳斯河为典型研究流域,采用水文模型模拟的方法,应用含融雪结构的新安江模型模拟研究区实测径流过程,并对其结果进行分析与检验,模拟精度较好,模拟径流过程基本符合实际径流过程的变化趋势,拟将其作为预测的基本模型。
为研究流域气候变化的趋势,利用研究区实测水文资料(实测日平均气温及降水资料)对研究区气候特征进行分析,得出玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站30年气温呈上升的趋势,其中1958～1979年气温呈缓慢波动下降的趋势,1980～1987年气温呈明显上升的趋势,气温平均升高幅度达1.2℃；降水量呈下降趋势,其中1958～1972年降水量变化不大,1980～1987年降水量逐渐减少,但下降幅度较小。本文选用研究区1983～1987年资料,以各年日平均气温、降水、蒸发以及径流作为输入,利用已建好的分布式水文模型来模拟不同气候情景下径流的形成过程,采用模拟方案为：降水不变,年均气温增加1℃和2℃；气温不变,年降水减少和增加20%。结果表明,在气温升高1℃的情况下,1983～1987年各年径流分别增加了29.80%、22.72%、28.58%、43.26%和36.54%,平均增幅为32.18%;在气温升高2℃的情况下,1983～1987年各年径流分别增加了57.72%、50.26%、61.79%、81.75%和24.33%,平均增幅为55.17%。当降水增加20%时,1983～1987年各年径流变化量分别为10.98%、-3.35%、5.97%、11.20%、16.22%；当降水减少20%时,各年径流变化量分别为1.01%、-14.85%、-8.26%、6.21%、2.01%。流域径流变化对气温变化基本呈正响应,即径流量随气温的升高呈现增多的趋势,而降水的增加与减少对径流的影响较小,各年径流总量变化不明显。由此得出,玛纳斯河流域年径流过程对气温变化的响应比对降水变化的响应更为显著。
The global climate is warming at an unprecedented rate in past century, a range of issues have been triggered such as melting of glaciers, extreme weather, food production, rising sea levels, species extinction and air pollution, this issues is more and more cause for concern. Manas river originates from glacier area of YiLianHabi Er Ga mountains that in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain, it is the largest river which has the largest number of glaciers in Junggar Basin, the length of river is 324km, the area of glacier is 692.5km2. As a typical inland arid area in Xinjiang River, study of climate change impact on runoff change plays a vital role on local ecological environment, agricultural production and sustainable development.
This article takes Manas river as the model research basin, uses the hydrology model simulation method, uses including Xin'an river model with the thaw structure to make a simulation of the runoff processes of the research area in 1958～1987, then to carry on the analysis and the examination to its result. The analogue result basically conforms to the trend of the actual runoff process.
In order to study the variation trend of the basin climatic, we use the research area actual hydrological data (actual daily average temperature and precipitation data) to carry on the analysis to the climate character of the research area, to obtain the temperature rise tendency of the Kensiwate hydrological station in Manas river basin in 30 years. The results are:during 1958～1979, the temperature assumed the tendency which presents with slow undulation drop, during 1980～1987, there was a marked rise in temperature, the temperature average ascension scope reached 1.2℃; the precipitation assumes drop tendency, during 1958～1972, precipitation change was not obvious, during 1980～1987, precipitation reduced gradually, but the drop scope was small. This article selects the research area data in 1983～1987, using distributional hydrology model constructed to simulate the runoff forming process under different climate scenes. The simulation plan is:the precipitation is invariable, and the daily temperature increases 1℃and 2℃; the temperature is invariable, and the daily precipitation reduces and increases 20%.
The results indicates that under the situation the temperature elevates every degree Celsius, the annual runoff during 1983～1987 separately increases 29.80%,22.72%,28.58%,43.26% and 36.54%, the average increase range is 32.18%; under the situation the temperature elevates every two degrees Celsius, the annual runoff during 1983～1987 separately increases 57.72%,50.26%,61.79%,81.75% and 24.33%, the average increase range is 55.17%. When the precipitation increases 20%, the annual runoff change during 1983～1987 respectively is 10.98%,-3.35%,5.97%,11.20%,16.22%; When the precipitation reduces 20%, the annual runoff change respectively is 1.01%,-14.85%,-8.26%,6.21%,2.01%.
The runoff of river basin in temperature changing is positively response, namely with a temperature rise, the runoff presents the trend of increased, and the influence of precipitation increase or decrease on runoff is small, the total quantity of annual runoff does not change significantly. From this study, we obtain that in Manas river basin the annual runoff process has obvious response to the change of temperature than to the precipitation.
本文以玛纳斯河为典型研究流域,采用水文模型模拟的方法,应用含融雪结构的新安江模型模拟研究区实测径流过程,并对其结果进行分析与检验,模拟精度较好,模拟径流过程基本符合实际径流过程的变化趋势,拟将其作为预测的基本模型。
为研究流域气候变化的趋势,利用研究区实测水文资料(实测日平均气温及降水资料)对研究区气候特征进行分析,得出玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站30年气温呈上升的趋势,其中1958～1979年气温呈缓慢波动下降的趋势,1980～1987年气温呈明显上升的趋势,气温平均升高幅度达1.2℃；降水量呈下降趋势,其中1958～1972年降水量变化不大,1980～1987年降水量逐渐减少,但下降幅度较小。本文选用研究区1983～1987年资料,以各年日平均气温、降水、蒸发以及径流作为输入,利用已建好的分布式水文模型来模拟不同气候情景下径流的形成过程,采用模拟方案为：降水不变,年均气温增加1℃和2℃；气温不变,年降水减少和增加20%。结果表明,在气温升高1℃的情况下,1983～1987年各年径流分别增加了29.80%、22.72%、28.58%、43.26%和36.54%,平均增幅为32.18%;在气温升高2℃的情况下,1983～1987年各年径流分别增加了57.72%、50.26%、61.79%、81.75%和24.33%,平均增幅为55.17%。当降水增加20%时,1983～1987年各年径流变化量分别为10.98%、-3.35%、5.97%、11.20%、16.22%；当降水减少20%时,各年径流变化量分别为1.01%、-14.85%、-8.26%、6.21%、2.01%。流域径流变化对气温变化基本呈正响应,即径流量随气温的升高呈现增多的趋势,而降水的增加与减少对径流的影响较小,各年径流总量变化不明显。由此得出,玛纳斯河流域年径流过程对气温变化的响应比对降水变化的响应更为显著。
The global climate is warming at an unprecedented rate in past century, a range of issues have been triggered such as melting of glaciers, extreme weather, food production, rising sea levels, species extinction and air pollution, this issues is more and more cause for concern. Manas river originates from glacier area of YiLianHabi Er Ga mountains that in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain, it is the largest river which has the largest number of glaciers in Junggar Basin, the length of river is 324km, the area of glacier is 692.5km2. As a typical inland arid area in Xinjiang River, study of climate change impact on runoff change plays a vital role on local ecological environment, agricultural production and sustainable development.
This article takes Manas river as the model research basin, uses the hydrology model simulation method, uses including Xin'an river model with the thaw structure to make a simulation of the runoff processes of the research area in 1958～1987, then to carry on the analysis and the examination to its result. The analogue result basically conforms to the trend of the actual runoff process.
In order to study the variation trend of the basin climatic, we use the research area actual hydrological data (actual daily average temperature and precipitation data) to carry on the analysis to the climate character of the research area, to obtain the temperature rise tendency of the Kensiwate hydrological station in Manas river basin in 30 years. The results are:during 1958～1979, the temperature assumed the tendency which presents with slow undulation drop, during 1980～1987, there was a marked rise in temperature, the temperature average ascension scope reached 1.2℃; the precipitation assumes drop tendency, during 1958～1972, precipitation change was not obvious, during 1980～1987, precipitation reduced gradually, but the drop scope was small. This article selects the research area data in 1983～1987, using distributional hydrology model constructed to simulate the runoff forming process under different climate scenes. The simulation plan is:the precipitation is invariable, and the daily temperature increases 1℃and 2℃; the temperature is invariable, and the daily precipitation reduces and increases 20%.
The results indicates that under the situation the temperature elevates every degree Celsius, the annual runoff during 1983～1987 separately increases 29.80%,22.72%,28.58%,43.26% and 36.54%, the average increase range is 32.18%; under the situation the temperature elevates every two degrees Celsius, the annual runoff during 1983～1987 separately increases 57.72%,50.26%,61.79%,81.75% and 24.33%, the average increase range is 55.17%. When the precipitation increases 20%, the annual runoff change during 1983～1987 respectively is 10.98%,-3.35%,5.97%,11.20%,16.22%; When the precipitation reduces 20%, the annual runoff change respectively is 1.01%,-14.85%,-8.26%,6.21%,2.01%.
The runoff of river basin in temperature changing is positively response, namely with a temperature rise, the runoff presents the trend of increased, and the influence of precipitation increase or decrease on runoff is small, the total quantity of annual runoff does not change significantly. From this study, we obtain that in Manas river basin the annual runoff process has obvious response to the change of temperature than to the precipitation.
引文
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