我国天然气安全评价与预警系统研究
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摘要
天然气因其清洁、低污染等特点被誉为21世纪的能源,很多国家都将其列为首选燃料,并逐步计划加大其在能源消费中的占有比例。根据《BP世界能源统计2012》数据表明,截止到2011年底,全球天然气消费量达3.2万亿立方米,较2010年增长2.2%,其中消费量增长速度最快的是中东地区,为6.9%。未来,天然气作为清洁能源,将在环保问题日益受重视的新能源时代持续发挥重要作用。根据国际能源署的预测,无论是在现有政策不变或是加大控制温室气体排放的刺激政策下,到2030年,天然气都将成为化石能源中唯一保持需求增长的能源。我国天然气市场需求也日益旺盛,即使是在金融危机影响下导致经济迅速下滑、能源供应和需求显着下降的当今世界,中国的天然气消费量仍保持着两位数的增长率。
然而,我国是一个“缺油少气”的国家,截止到2011年底,中国天然气探明储量为3.1万亿立方米,占世界总探明储量的1.5%,储产比为29.8年,远远低于世界平均水平63.6年；与此同时,我国的天然气消费量居于全球第四位,较2010年增幅高达21.5%,因此,也导致了我国天然气供应与需求之间的差距不断扩大,对外依存度也逐年增高,2011年中国天然气的供需缺口已达到282亿立方米’。据学者推算,2011年国内天然气进口量将达到460亿立方米,预计到2015年,我国需要从国外进口量占国内天然气总消费量的三成。另一方面,我国天然气市场存在严重的计划经济特征,国家将天然气作为公共事业来供给,人为地压低了天然气的出售价格,这就导致天然气价格一直低于国际平均价格,在这种定价方式下,许多国际天然气巨头由于无法获利只得退出国内市场。扭曲的天然气价格给我国天然气供求造成了严重的矛盾,一方面天然气低价供给使得其在消费过程中大量浪费,另一方面市场价格不能反映真正的供求对比情况使得天然气供给严重降低。
这意味着我国天然气工业在资源储存量、供给能力、市场调节等方面存在着诸多问题,天然气资源的安全问题已经成为关系我国经济发展和社会稳定的重大战略问题,如何对我国天然气资源的安全现状进行细致、全面的评价,并在此基础上进行天然气安全预警分析,建立合理的监测预警系统,是推进我国经济发展、社会进步、军事和外交安全的重要举措,更是保障我国能源安全健康发展的重点。
本文首先全面分析影响天然气安全的关键因素,根据其确定评价指标并建立天然气安全预警指标体系；紧接着对影响天然气安全的评价指标进行预测,天然气的未来安全水平,并开发安全评价预警软件对天然气安全状态进行评价预警,揭示不安全因素形成的早期征兆,为天然气安全预防和控制提供决策依据。
通过较为系统的研究,论文主要的成果如下：
1、总结国内外学者在石油安全预警研究的基础上,探索性的对我国天然气安全预警进行研究,根据构建预警指标体系的原则建立天然气安全预警评价指标体系,在此基础上采用层次分析法确定了各预警指标的权重,并对预警指标体系进行评价,分析了我国天然气安全现状及对未来几年我国天然气的安全状况进行预警。
2、通过收集2007年-2011年我国天然气安全预警指标等相关数据,针对预警指标的不同特点以及预测的难度,运用ARIMA-AR-VAR-GM(1,1)的组合模型、曲线回归法、Elamn神经网络等方法对我国天然气安全预警指标体系中各项指标分别进行预测,并对得出的结果进行分析,增强了方法的可靠性以及数据的准确性。
3、利用AHP-GRA-TOPSIS法评价我国目前天然气安全状况并对未来一段时期内的天然气安全发展态势进行预警。具体方法步骤：(1)层次分析法计算出评价指标的综合权重；(2)用灰色关联分析方法通过比较数据列的几何形状相似程度来判断其联系是否紧密,从而确定样本(方案)之间的关联程度；(3)使用TOPSIS方法可以确定各项指标的正理想值和负理想值,得出各方案与最优方案的接近程度,给出各方案的排序。因此,利用层次分析法的指标权重和基于灰色关联度和Euclid距离的改进TOPSIS多属性决策方法,可以充分利用各自优势,给出更加合理的评价结果。
4、编制天然气安全评价预警软件,解决了天然气安全预警中信息数据输入量大、易产生错误、可操作性差的问题,减轻了劳动强度并且方便各种安全信息的管理和预警；软件对影响天然气安全的各因素、指标的趋势进行监控,对天然气安全的当前态势和未来趋势进行预测。
5、对如何保障我国天然气安全提出相应的对策措施与建议。
Natural gas has been known as the twenty-first Century's energy because of its cleanness, low pollution, many countries have regarded natural gas as the preferred fuel, and plans to gradually increase its proportion of the possession in energy consumption. According to the "BP World Energy Statistics2012", until the end of2011, the global consumption of natural gas was amounted to3.2trillion cubic meters, representing an increase of2.2%over2010,while the Middle East has the fastest growth of natural gas consumption,6.9%.. In future, Natural gas as a clean energy, will continue to play an important role in the new energy era with environmental problems have become increasingly severe. According to the International Energy Agency, whether in the existing policy unchanged or increased greenhouse gas emissions control stimulus policy, by2030, natural gas will become the only energy of fossil fuels with growing demand. The market demand of natural gas in China is increasingly vigorous, even lead to economic decline rapidly, energy supply and demand significantly decreased in the world under the influence of the financial crisis, China's natural gas consumption is still maintained two-digit growth.
However, China is the country of " lack of petroleum and natural gas ", by the end of2011, China's natural gas proven reserves of3.1cubic meters, accounting for the world total proven reserves1.5%, reserve and production ratio is29.8years, far below the world average of63.6years; at the same time, natural gas consumption in China ranks the4th in the world, increasing21.5%compared to2010, which cause the widening gap between China's natural gas supply and demand and the foreign dependency rate increasing year by year. the gap of natural gas supply and demand of China in2011has reached28.2billion cubic meters. In addition, according to the relevant experts' estimation by2015China will have more than30%of the natural gas dependence on foreign imports. However, the formation of the China's gas price" cost plus method " is still in the planned economy period, the residents to use gas as welfare and the price is relatively low, leading to price upside down, making foreign gas having no advantage in price competition, only to withdraw from Chinese market. This kind of price distortions with a rapid expansion of shortage between demand and supply, makes residents having no consciousness of saving natural gas resources because of its low prices; and causes the "gas shortage" because the market is not standardized.
This means that there are many problems in the storage quantity, supply capacity, market regulation of China's natural gas industry and safety problems of natural gas resources has become a major strategic issue in China's economic development and social stability, how to natural gas resources in China's security situation evaluation and detailed, comprehensive, and based on the analysis of natural gas safety early warning, monitoring and early warning systems to establish reasonable evaluation, are important measures to promote China's economic development, social progress, military and diplomatic security, more is to safeguard China's energy security and healthy development of the key.
This thesis firstly analyzes the key factors affecting the safety of natural gas, according to the evaluation index and the establishment of natural gas safety early warning index system; followed by the prediction of impact assessment index of gas safety, gas safety level in future, and evaluate the security status of the development of early warning for natural gas safety warning system, early warning signs reveal the formation of unsafe factors, for the safety of natural gas prevention and to provide basis for decision making and control.
By the systematic research, the main results are as follows:
1.with summarizing the domestic and foreign scholars' researches of oil security early warning, this thesis conducts a research of early warning of natural gas safety in China, natural gas safety early warning indicators were selected according to the constructing principle of early warning system, established the gas safety early warning evaluation index system, the weights of the indexes by analytic hierarchy process, and based on the evaluation of the early warning index, analysis of the safety status of safety situation and the early warning of natural gas in our country the next few years,.
2. Through the collection of2007-2011years of relevant data of China's natural gas safety early warning indicators, according to different characteristics of early warning indicators and the difficulty of predicting using ARIMA-AR-VAR-GM (1,1) model, Curve regression method, Elamn neural network respectively to each index of natural gas in our country security early warning index system respectively forecast, and on the results of the analysis, the reliability of the method is verified and the data is accurate.
3. Using AHP-GRA-TOPSIS method to evaluate the safety of natural gas in China at present and the warning of the safety of natural gas development trend of the coming period. The method comprises the following steps:(1) the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the comprehensive evaluation index weights;(2) by comparing the data with method of grey correlation analysis to determine the geometry similarity relation is close, so as to determine the degree of correlation between samples (scheme);(3) the TOPSIS method can determine the positive ideal indexes value and the negative ideal value, the close degree of each scheme and optimum scheme is given, the ranking of the alternatives. Therefore, using the index weight with AHP and grey correlation degree based on improved TOPSIS distance and Euclid distance of the multiple attribute decision making method, can make full use of their respective advantages, give more reasonable evaluation results.
4. On the basis of natural gas security early warning index system, the natural gas safety evaluation and early warning software was established, which solves the problems of large input amount of information data of natural gas safety warning. its proneness to errors and poor operability, reducing the labor intensity and is convenient for all kinds of safety information management and early warning. index of each factors, influence the software of the natural gas safety trend monitoring and prediction, and forecast the current situation and future trends of natural gas safety.
5. To put forward the countermeasures and suggestions of how to guarantee the safety of China's natural gas.
然而,我国是一个“缺油少气”的国家,截止到2011年底,中国天然气探明储量为3.1万亿立方米,占世界总探明储量的1.5%,储产比为29.8年,远远低于世界平均水平63.6年；与此同时,我国的天然气消费量居于全球第四位,较2010年增幅高达21.5%,因此,也导致了我国天然气供应与需求之间的差距不断扩大,对外依存度也逐年增高,2011年中国天然气的供需缺口已达到282亿立方米’。据学者推算,2011年国内天然气进口量将达到460亿立方米,预计到2015年,我国需要从国外进口量占国内天然气总消费量的三成。另一方面,我国天然气市场存在严重的计划经济特征,国家将天然气作为公共事业来供给,人为地压低了天然气的出售价格,这就导致天然气价格一直低于国际平均价格,在这种定价方式下,许多国际天然气巨头由于无法获利只得退出国内市场。扭曲的天然气价格给我国天然气供求造成了严重的矛盾,一方面天然气低价供给使得其在消费过程中大量浪费,另一方面市场价格不能反映真正的供求对比情况使得天然气供给严重降低。
这意味着我国天然气工业在资源储存量、供给能力、市场调节等方面存在着诸多问题,天然气资源的安全问题已经成为关系我国经济发展和社会稳定的重大战略问题,如何对我国天然气资源的安全现状进行细致、全面的评价,并在此基础上进行天然气安全预警分析,建立合理的监测预警系统,是推进我国经济发展、社会进步、军事和外交安全的重要举措,更是保障我国能源安全健康发展的重点。
本文首先全面分析影响天然气安全的关键因素,根据其确定评价指标并建立天然气安全预警指标体系；紧接着对影响天然气安全的评价指标进行预测,天然气的未来安全水平,并开发安全评价预警软件对天然气安全状态进行评价预警,揭示不安全因素形成的早期征兆,为天然气安全预防和控制提供决策依据。
通过较为系统的研究,论文主要的成果如下：
1、总结国内外学者在石油安全预警研究的基础上,探索性的对我国天然气安全预警进行研究,根据构建预警指标体系的原则建立天然气安全预警评价指标体系,在此基础上采用层次分析法确定了各预警指标的权重,并对预警指标体系进行评价,分析了我国天然气安全现状及对未来几年我国天然气的安全状况进行预警。
2、通过收集2007年-2011年我国天然气安全预警指标等相关数据,针对预警指标的不同特点以及预测的难度,运用ARIMA-AR-VAR-GM(1,1)的组合模型、曲线回归法、Elamn神经网络等方法对我国天然气安全预警指标体系中各项指标分别进行预测,并对得出的结果进行分析,增强了方法的可靠性以及数据的准确性。
3、利用AHP-GRA-TOPSIS法评价我国目前天然气安全状况并对未来一段时期内的天然气安全发展态势进行预警。具体方法步骤：(1)层次分析法计算出评价指标的综合权重；(2)用灰色关联分析方法通过比较数据列的几何形状相似程度来判断其联系是否紧密,从而确定样本(方案)之间的关联程度；(3)使用TOPSIS方法可以确定各项指标的正理想值和负理想值,得出各方案与最优方案的接近程度,给出各方案的排序。因此,利用层次分析法的指标权重和基于灰色关联度和Euclid距离的改进TOPSIS多属性决策方法,可以充分利用各自优势,给出更加合理的评价结果。
4、编制天然气安全评价预警软件,解决了天然气安全预警中信息数据输入量大、易产生错误、可操作性差的问题,减轻了劳动强度并且方便各种安全信息的管理和预警；软件对影响天然气安全的各因素、指标的趋势进行监控,对天然气安全的当前态势和未来趋势进行预测。
5、对如何保障我国天然气安全提出相应的对策措施与建议。
Natural gas has been known as the twenty-first Century's energy because of its cleanness, low pollution, many countries have regarded natural gas as the preferred fuel, and plans to gradually increase its proportion of the possession in energy consumption. According to the "BP World Energy Statistics2012", until the end of2011, the global consumption of natural gas was amounted to3.2trillion cubic meters, representing an increase of2.2%over2010,while the Middle East has the fastest growth of natural gas consumption,6.9%.. In future, Natural gas as a clean energy, will continue to play an important role in the new energy era with environmental problems have become increasingly severe. According to the International Energy Agency, whether in the existing policy unchanged or increased greenhouse gas emissions control stimulus policy, by2030, natural gas will become the only energy of fossil fuels with growing demand. The market demand of natural gas in China is increasingly vigorous, even lead to economic decline rapidly, energy supply and demand significantly decreased in the world under the influence of the financial crisis, China's natural gas consumption is still maintained two-digit growth.
However, China is the country of " lack of petroleum and natural gas ", by the end of2011, China's natural gas proven reserves of3.1cubic meters, accounting for the world total proven reserves1.5%, reserve and production ratio is29.8years, far below the world average of63.6years; at the same time, natural gas consumption in China ranks the4th in the world, increasing21.5%compared to2010, which cause the widening gap between China's natural gas supply and demand and the foreign dependency rate increasing year by year. the gap of natural gas supply and demand of China in2011has reached28.2billion cubic meters. In addition, according to the relevant experts' estimation by2015China will have more than30%of the natural gas dependence on foreign imports. However, the formation of the China's gas price" cost plus method " is still in the planned economy period, the residents to use gas as welfare and the price is relatively low, leading to price upside down, making foreign gas having no advantage in price competition, only to withdraw from Chinese market. This kind of price distortions with a rapid expansion of shortage between demand and supply, makes residents having no consciousness of saving natural gas resources because of its low prices; and causes the "gas shortage" because the market is not standardized.
This means that there are many problems in the storage quantity, supply capacity, market regulation of China's natural gas industry and safety problems of natural gas resources has become a major strategic issue in China's economic development and social stability, how to natural gas resources in China's security situation evaluation and detailed, comprehensive, and based on the analysis of natural gas safety early warning, monitoring and early warning systems to establish reasonable evaluation, are important measures to promote China's economic development, social progress, military and diplomatic security, more is to safeguard China's energy security and healthy development of the key.
This thesis firstly analyzes the key factors affecting the safety of natural gas, according to the evaluation index and the establishment of natural gas safety early warning index system; followed by the prediction of impact assessment index of gas safety, gas safety level in future, and evaluate the security status of the development of early warning for natural gas safety warning system, early warning signs reveal the formation of unsafe factors, for the safety of natural gas prevention and to provide basis for decision making and control.
By the systematic research, the main results are as follows:
1.with summarizing the domestic and foreign scholars' researches of oil security early warning, this thesis conducts a research of early warning of natural gas safety in China, natural gas safety early warning indicators were selected according to the constructing principle of early warning system, established the gas safety early warning evaluation index system, the weights of the indexes by analytic hierarchy process, and based on the evaluation of the early warning index, analysis of the safety status of safety situation and the early warning of natural gas in our country the next few years,.
2. Through the collection of2007-2011years of relevant data of China's natural gas safety early warning indicators, according to different characteristics of early warning indicators and the difficulty of predicting using ARIMA-AR-VAR-GM (1,1) model, Curve regression method, Elamn neural network respectively to each index of natural gas in our country security early warning index system respectively forecast, and on the results of the analysis, the reliability of the method is verified and the data is accurate.
3. Using AHP-GRA-TOPSIS method to evaluate the safety of natural gas in China at present and the warning of the safety of natural gas development trend of the coming period. The method comprises the following steps:(1) the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the comprehensive evaluation index weights;(2) by comparing the data with method of grey correlation analysis to determine the geometry similarity relation is close, so as to determine the degree of correlation between samples (scheme);(3) the TOPSIS method can determine the positive ideal indexes value and the negative ideal value, the close degree of each scheme and optimum scheme is given, the ranking of the alternatives. Therefore, using the index weight with AHP and grey correlation degree based on improved TOPSIS distance and Euclid distance of the multiple attribute decision making method, can make full use of their respective advantages, give more reasonable evaluation results.
4. On the basis of natural gas security early warning index system, the natural gas safety evaluation and early warning software was established, which solves the problems of large input amount of information data of natural gas safety warning. its proneness to errors and poor operability, reducing the labor intensity and is convenient for all kinds of safety information management and early warning. index of each factors, influence the software of the natural gas safety trend monitoring and prediction, and forecast the current situation and future trends of natural gas safety.
5. To put forward the countermeasures and suggestions of how to guarantee the safety of China's natural gas.
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