中国书画艺术品市场泡沫化问题的计量分析
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摘要
中国传统文化源远流长，其中独有的书画艺术品的魅力在海内外享有极高的盛誉。由于书画艺术品本身天然地具有的稀缺性和不可再生性,从而使其市场价格有着坚韧上扬的刚性，即使在金融危机时期也不例外。正因为如此,近几年来随着我国艺术品市场的快速发展，书画艺术品市场呈现出了泡沫化趋势。高价值的中国书画艺术品已占据了百分之八十以上的艺术品市场份额，成为了艺术品投资市场的生力军。它不仅领跑艺术品拍卖市场，引导艺术品投资方向，甚至于对国际艺术品投资和拍卖行情都产生了较大的影响。正如艺术品市场专家李彦君（2012）说：“齐白石的书画，可以说前五年能够见到一百万一张的，甚至都是十分少见的现象，然而现在突然竞涨到四个多亿，你想一下这是多么大的跨度。应该说是十足的泡沫了，我们商代的青铜器，我们唐代的金银器，包括甚至明代的画、宋代的画也没有卖这么高的，所以这个是泡沫，这一点是毫无疑问。”
中国艺术品市场从摆脱地摊式经营,到以竞拍方式为交易特征的拍卖市场出现，形成与国际接轨的拍卖市场算起,才经历不过10多年时间。泡沫化的出现,显然不利于刚刚兴起而且方兴未艾的中国书画艺术品市场的健康发展,因此,对中国书画艺术品市场发展现状和泡沫化趋势进行计量分析,揭示存在的问题,探讨规范中国书画艺术品市场发展之路,对促进中国书画艺术品市场健康、可持续发展有着重要理论和现实意义。
论文研究内容共由五部分构成:
第一部分为第一章绪论,主要阐述论文的选题背景与研究的理论和现实意义,本文研究的内容及结构安排、研究思路与方法,以及本文创新点和不足之处。
第二部分为第二章,着重介绍有关艺术品市场国内外文献相关的经济学研究,通过对国内外研究相关文献的梳理，来寻找从经济学角度适用于分析书画艺术品市场的科学的理论脉络和实证分析方法，建立研究中国书画艺术品泡沫化问题正确视点。
第三部分是第三、四、五章为本文研究的核心,着重分析中国书画艺术品市场发展现状、所呈现出的泡沫化的表现形态及发展趋势。泡沫化对中国书画艺术品市场发展带来的评价体系混乱、价格严重偏离价值轨道、投机行为横行、赝品泛滥以及偷漏税严重等一系列负面效应；运用统计学、计量经济学时间序列分析和博弈论等模型和方法，对中国书画艺术品市场所出现的泡沫化进行定性与定量相结合的实证分析；在此基础上，进一步探索造成中国书画艺术品市场出现泡沫化的影响因素。
第四部分为第六章,着重介绍国外一些成熟的艺术品市场在价值评估体系构建、画廊交易制度创新与改进、艺术品市场租赁市场建设和税收制度设计等方面的经验。目的是为规范我国书画艺术品市场,使其健康发展提供可借鉴的经验和启示。
第五部分为本文的第七章,本章内容是在前面各章分析研究的基础上,对如何去泡沫化,形成良好的文化价值观,建立完善的交易制度,保持中国书画艺术品市场健康可持续发展,使其带动中国整个文化产业发展,丰富人们精神文化生活,提出一系列对策建议。内容包括如何为投资者服务尝试开发艺术金融产品,完善书画真伪鉴定的技术设施,强化对书画等艺术品税收漏洞的监管和建立艺术品退市制度等。
本文创新之处主要体现在以下方面:一是在我国首次提出并以经济学视角,采用规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合方法,对中国书画艺术品市场的泡沫化问题进行研究;二是对艺术家应如何享有其作品的产权给出了明确的界定。艺术家对其作品所享有的产权，不仅应包括一次拍卖的收益权，而且还应包括艺术家创作该作品若干年以后的若干次拍卖的增值部分的一个固定比率,这与艺术家追续权（droit de suite）的概念一致,它与著作者对其著作所享有的版权也是一致的概念。对艺术品的产权进行明晰地分割和界定，能够从根本上治理目前中国书画艺术品拍卖市场上的合谋现象，促使画廊与拍卖公司对于底价的合谋问题以及艺术品评估结论的虚假不实问题得到彻底的改革。这样就可避免艺术家及其法定继承人或者指定继承人在短期内希冀对艺术家的作品的价值产生市场上的抬价倾向与严重高估，投资者和收藏者对书画艺术品拍卖底价和艺术家对所谓“身价”的热望与追求可因艺术家追续权的确立而冰释，因为他可能要为若干年后的若干次“流拍”付出很多代价，得不偿失。
本文不足之处:由于很难收集到中国书画艺术品市场的私下交易的数据,而私下交易泛滥正是艺术品市场难以被约束和规范的重要原因之一,所以本文在实证分析方面还不够充分。
经验证明，一个国家的艺术品市场的发展不可能一蹴而就，同样,中国书画艺术品的发展也将是一个漫长的过程。在如何使其规范化与世界接轨,健康可持续发展,为中国书画灿烂的文明提供创造、包装、流通、消费的理想的制度与市场环境，它不仅是艺术领域专业人士面前的研究课题,更是需要当代经济学家们集体研究的崭新课题,但愿本文能为此起到启发深思的作用。
Chinese traditional culture has an amazing long history, that’s why the uniquecharm of Chinese painting and calligraphy art can enjoy high reputation at home andabroad. Due to the scarcity of painting and calligraphy art, it has the natural limit andnon-renewable, the market price have been rather rigid. Under the financial crisis,thetrend didn’t change.With the rapid development in recent years, Chinese painting andcalligraphy art market is showing a obvious tendency of the bubbles. Chinese high valuepainting and calligraphy art has occupied more than eighty percent of the market share,as a critical part of art investment, it not only leads art auction market,but still guide theart investment direction.Even on the investment stategy design and auction for theinternational art item has a great influence. As the art market experts Li Yanjun (2012)said:"Qi Baishi's calligraphy and painting, can be seldom seen one million one five yearsago, but all of a sudden it bid up to four hundred million.Can you imgine how big thespan is? It should be said an absolute bubble.The Shang Dynasty bronze, gold or silverbottles and the Tang Dynasty tea pot, including paintings since the Ming Dynasty, theSong Dynasty calligraphy also climb to such top price level, so this is a bubble, whichshould be without doubt."
Chinese art market stands up from street business and develops into bidding-fortype of transaction characteristics of the auction market, finally steps into being linedwith international standards auction market.This process experienced more than10years.Bubbles naturally appears, but it is a bad news for the healthy development of the artmarket.In attempt to unfolding Chinese painting and calligraphy art market, therefore,dependent on analyzing the difficulties of the development of Chinese painting andcalligraphy art market,describing the bubble tendency, revealing the existing problems,regulating the institutional environment of Chinese painting and calligraphy art marketroad.The final end of this thesis is to interpret the important theory and its practicalsignificance and promote health degree of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market.Sustainable development is critical for this special market.
The paper consists of five parts:
The first part is the first chapter called by the introduction, mainly presents the research background and makes clear where the theoretical and practical significance liesin, arranges the content and structure, points out research ideas and methods of this study,and indicate the innovations and shortcomings.
The second part is also the second chapter, focuses on review of the economicstheory of the art market,including domestic and foreign literature related.Through thelong research list on the literature at home and abroad to find out what theory and whatperspective is applicable to the analysis of painting and calligraphy art market.Theempirical analysis method is also investigate in attempt to base research on building ofEconomectrics theory. Chinese calligraphy and painting works of art bubbles can attainthe relatively scientific and comprehensive viewpoint.
The third part as the core of the whole article includes the third, the fourth or fifthchapter.It focuses on the analysis of bubble’s tracking and development trend. Chinesepainting and calligraphy art market showed that the bubbles not only brought thedevelopment of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market on evaluation system,butalso the chaos of prices which seriously deviates from the normal orbit.Then thespeculation prevalent, serious tax evasion and other series of negative effects lined up.We can use the modern model and methods of statistics, econometrics, time seriesanalysis and game theory in investigating this art market.The bubbles which appears onChinese calligraphy and painting art market is not impossible for qualitative andquantitative empirical analysis.So,on this solid basis, further analysis of the causes ofinfluencing factors of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market bubble becomespossible.
The fourth part is the sixth chapter, introduces evaluation system constructiondesign, their innovations and improvements of gallery management, art market rentalmarket, trading system construction and the tax system design of foreign mature artmarkets. These experiences have value for the purpose of standardizing the market ofChinese calligraphy and painting art, transforming it into healthy development road.
The fifth part is in the seventh chapter.This chapter is based on the above analysisand research and devoted to point out concretely how to weaken bubbles trend and renewcultural value.In addition to give suggestions on establishing and improving the currenttrading system, on maintaining a healthy and sustainable development process of Chinese painting and calligraphy art marke.As concern to promote the development ofcultural industry in China,to emplify upper class people's spiritual and cultural life,thispart put forward a series of measures.These measures include how to direct the investorswho try to invest into financial products of art fund, how to improve the technical barrierto identify the authenticity of painting and calligraphy,how to revise art tax loopholes tostrengthen supervision,and how to establish the delisting criteria of art share transactions.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects.Firstly,it isthe first time to put forward the perspective of economics of art market, using normativeanalysis combined with empirical analysis, combining qualitative analysis andquantitative analysis method, to study bubble problem on Chinese calligraphy andpainting art market.Secondly,The suggestions are given on how to enjoy their property ofart pieces by an artist. This right is not ye recognized or even clearly defined in China.Artists and his legal successors should enjoy wo rks pro perty rights, should have theright to ask for not only an auction revenue for only one time, but also should have theright to ask a fixed ratio of value-added part of auction revenue during a certain numberof years after the artist died.That is the basic meaning of droit de suite, it is consistentwith the copyright enjoyed by authors. With a clear definition and segmentation of artproperty, collusion phenomenon can be fundamentally controlled.And the prcingbehavior of calligraphy and painting works of art auction market can avoid thecollusion.It is happened between the gallery with auction companies on reserve pricedetermining and art’s true or false assessment.This fearful problem can be thoroughlyreformed by droit de suite. This right prevents the artist and their heirs seek for highassessment or high market value of his works in the short term.They just lose theincentive to obtain overvalued sum by market.Investors and collectors of Chinesepainting and calligraphy art auction also desperately need this right being recognized.Dueto artists "worth" pursuit,the auction market become abnormal.The evil result is illiquilityof art piece,and a several years’s illiquidity means artist and their heir have no gain.
Inadequacies of this article: It is so difficult to collect private transactions data ofChinese calligraphy and painting art market,but private transactions flooding is still oneof the important reasons for the confusion and hardness to restrain of aution market.Dueto this difficulty from database, in this paper, the empirical analysis is impossible to be thourough or done at all.
Experience has proved that the development of a national art market could not beaccomplished at one stroke, in similar reson, the development of Chinese calligraphy andpainting works of art will also be a very long process.How can we make it smoothly intothe advanced leve,how can we make it get access to he rest of the world, how can wepush it into sustainable development road, and howe can we design the complete systemfor provides institution to the creation, packaging, circulation, consumption of art piece isan urgent problem or task.Chinese painting and calligraphy have unique,splendidcivilization,but the market environment lies in low level. The gap problem need not onlythe researchers of art area,but the contemporary economists to join in.I hope this papercan play a some role to arise the pondering.
中国艺术品市场从摆脱地摊式经营,到以竞拍方式为交易特征的拍卖市场出现，形成与国际接轨的拍卖市场算起,才经历不过10多年时间。泡沫化的出现,显然不利于刚刚兴起而且方兴未艾的中国书画艺术品市场的健康发展,因此,对中国书画艺术品市场发展现状和泡沫化趋势进行计量分析,揭示存在的问题,探讨规范中国书画艺术品市场发展之路,对促进中国书画艺术品市场健康、可持续发展有着重要理论和现实意义。
论文研究内容共由五部分构成:
第一部分为第一章绪论,主要阐述论文的选题背景与研究的理论和现实意义,本文研究的内容及结构安排、研究思路与方法,以及本文创新点和不足之处。
第二部分为第二章,着重介绍有关艺术品市场国内外文献相关的经济学研究,通过对国内外研究相关文献的梳理，来寻找从经济学角度适用于分析书画艺术品市场的科学的理论脉络和实证分析方法，建立研究中国书画艺术品泡沫化问题正确视点。
第三部分是第三、四、五章为本文研究的核心,着重分析中国书画艺术品市场发展现状、所呈现出的泡沫化的表现形态及发展趋势。泡沫化对中国书画艺术品市场发展带来的评价体系混乱、价格严重偏离价值轨道、投机行为横行、赝品泛滥以及偷漏税严重等一系列负面效应；运用统计学、计量经济学时间序列分析和博弈论等模型和方法，对中国书画艺术品市场所出现的泡沫化进行定性与定量相结合的实证分析；在此基础上，进一步探索造成中国书画艺术品市场出现泡沫化的影响因素。
第四部分为第六章,着重介绍国外一些成熟的艺术品市场在价值评估体系构建、画廊交易制度创新与改进、艺术品市场租赁市场建设和税收制度设计等方面的经验。目的是为规范我国书画艺术品市场,使其健康发展提供可借鉴的经验和启示。
第五部分为本文的第七章,本章内容是在前面各章分析研究的基础上,对如何去泡沫化,形成良好的文化价值观,建立完善的交易制度,保持中国书画艺术品市场健康可持续发展,使其带动中国整个文化产业发展,丰富人们精神文化生活,提出一系列对策建议。内容包括如何为投资者服务尝试开发艺术金融产品,完善书画真伪鉴定的技术设施,强化对书画等艺术品税收漏洞的监管和建立艺术品退市制度等。
本文创新之处主要体现在以下方面:一是在我国首次提出并以经济学视角,采用规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合方法,对中国书画艺术品市场的泡沫化问题进行研究;二是对艺术家应如何享有其作品的产权给出了明确的界定。艺术家对其作品所享有的产权，不仅应包括一次拍卖的收益权，而且还应包括艺术家创作该作品若干年以后的若干次拍卖的增值部分的一个固定比率,这与艺术家追续权（droit de suite）的概念一致,它与著作者对其著作所享有的版权也是一致的概念。对艺术品的产权进行明晰地分割和界定，能够从根本上治理目前中国书画艺术品拍卖市场上的合谋现象，促使画廊与拍卖公司对于底价的合谋问题以及艺术品评估结论的虚假不实问题得到彻底的改革。这样就可避免艺术家及其法定继承人或者指定继承人在短期内希冀对艺术家的作品的价值产生市场上的抬价倾向与严重高估，投资者和收藏者对书画艺术品拍卖底价和艺术家对所谓“身价”的热望与追求可因艺术家追续权的确立而冰释，因为他可能要为若干年后的若干次“流拍”付出很多代价，得不偿失。
本文不足之处:由于很难收集到中国书画艺术品市场的私下交易的数据,而私下交易泛滥正是艺术品市场难以被约束和规范的重要原因之一,所以本文在实证分析方面还不够充分。
经验证明，一个国家的艺术品市场的发展不可能一蹴而就，同样,中国书画艺术品的发展也将是一个漫长的过程。在如何使其规范化与世界接轨,健康可持续发展,为中国书画灿烂的文明提供创造、包装、流通、消费的理想的制度与市场环境，它不仅是艺术领域专业人士面前的研究课题,更是需要当代经济学家们集体研究的崭新课题,但愿本文能为此起到启发深思的作用。
Chinese traditional culture has an amazing long history, that’s why the uniquecharm of Chinese painting and calligraphy art can enjoy high reputation at home andabroad. Due to the scarcity of painting and calligraphy art, it has the natural limit andnon-renewable, the market price have been rather rigid. Under the financial crisis,thetrend didn’t change.With the rapid development in recent years, Chinese painting andcalligraphy art market is showing a obvious tendency of the bubbles. Chinese high valuepainting and calligraphy art has occupied more than eighty percent of the market share,as a critical part of art investment, it not only leads art auction market,but still guide theart investment direction.Even on the investment stategy design and auction for theinternational art item has a great influence. As the art market experts Li Yanjun (2012)said:"Qi Baishi's calligraphy and painting, can be seldom seen one million one five yearsago, but all of a sudden it bid up to four hundred million.Can you imgine how big thespan is? It should be said an absolute bubble.The Shang Dynasty bronze, gold or silverbottles and the Tang Dynasty tea pot, including paintings since the Ming Dynasty, theSong Dynasty calligraphy also climb to such top price level, so this is a bubble, whichshould be without doubt."
Chinese art market stands up from street business and develops into bidding-fortype of transaction characteristics of the auction market, finally steps into being linedwith international standards auction market.This process experienced more than10years.Bubbles naturally appears, but it is a bad news for the healthy development of the artmarket.In attempt to unfolding Chinese painting and calligraphy art market, therefore,dependent on analyzing the difficulties of the development of Chinese painting andcalligraphy art market,describing the bubble tendency, revealing the existing problems,regulating the institutional environment of Chinese painting and calligraphy art marketroad.The final end of this thesis is to interpret the important theory and its practicalsignificance and promote health degree of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market.Sustainable development is critical for this special market.
The paper consists of five parts:
The first part is the first chapter called by the introduction, mainly presents the research background and makes clear where the theoretical and practical significance liesin, arranges the content and structure, points out research ideas and methods of this study,and indicate the innovations and shortcomings.
The second part is also the second chapter, focuses on review of the economicstheory of the art market,including domestic and foreign literature related.Through thelong research list on the literature at home and abroad to find out what theory and whatperspective is applicable to the analysis of painting and calligraphy art market.Theempirical analysis method is also investigate in attempt to base research on building ofEconomectrics theory. Chinese calligraphy and painting works of art bubbles can attainthe relatively scientific and comprehensive viewpoint.
The third part as the core of the whole article includes the third, the fourth or fifthchapter.It focuses on the analysis of bubble’s tracking and development trend. Chinesepainting and calligraphy art market showed that the bubbles not only brought thedevelopment of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market on evaluation system,butalso the chaos of prices which seriously deviates from the normal orbit.Then thespeculation prevalent, serious tax evasion and other series of negative effects lined up.We can use the modern model and methods of statistics, econometrics, time seriesanalysis and game theory in investigating this art market.The bubbles which appears onChinese calligraphy and painting art market is not impossible for qualitative andquantitative empirical analysis.So,on this solid basis, further analysis of the causes ofinfluencing factors of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market bubble becomespossible.
The fourth part is the sixth chapter, introduces evaluation system constructiondesign, their innovations and improvements of gallery management, art market rentalmarket, trading system construction and the tax system design of foreign mature artmarkets. These experiences have value for the purpose of standardizing the market ofChinese calligraphy and painting art, transforming it into healthy development road.
The fifth part is in the seventh chapter.This chapter is based on the above analysisand research and devoted to point out concretely how to weaken bubbles trend and renewcultural value.In addition to give suggestions on establishing and improving the currenttrading system, on maintaining a healthy and sustainable development process of Chinese painting and calligraphy art marke.As concern to promote the development ofcultural industry in China,to emplify upper class people's spiritual and cultural life,thispart put forward a series of measures.These measures include how to direct the investorswho try to invest into financial products of art fund, how to improve the technical barrierto identify the authenticity of painting and calligraphy,how to revise art tax loopholes tostrengthen supervision,and how to establish the delisting criteria of art share transactions.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects.Firstly,it isthe first time to put forward the perspective of economics of art market, using normativeanalysis combined with empirical analysis, combining qualitative analysis andquantitative analysis method, to study bubble problem on Chinese calligraphy andpainting art market.Secondly,The suggestions are given on how to enjoy their property ofart pieces by an artist. This right is not ye recognized or even clearly defined in China.Artists and his legal successors should enjoy wo rks pro perty rights, should have theright to ask for not only an auction revenue for only one time, but also should have theright to ask a fixed ratio of value-added part of auction revenue during a certain numberof years after the artist died.That is the basic meaning of droit de suite, it is consistentwith the copyright enjoyed by authors. With a clear definition and segmentation of artproperty, collusion phenomenon can be fundamentally controlled.And the prcingbehavior of calligraphy and painting works of art auction market can avoid thecollusion.It is happened between the gallery with auction companies on reserve pricedetermining and art’s true or false assessment.This fearful problem can be thoroughlyreformed by droit de suite. This right prevents the artist and their heirs seek for highassessment or high market value of his works in the short term.They just lose theincentive to obtain overvalued sum by market.Investors and collectors of Chinesepainting and calligraphy art auction also desperately need this right being recognized.Dueto artists "worth" pursuit,the auction market become abnormal.The evil result is illiquilityof art piece,and a several years’s illiquidity means artist and their heir have no gain.
Inadequacies of this article: It is so difficult to collect private transactions data ofChinese calligraphy and painting art market,but private transactions flooding is still oneof the important reasons for the confusion and hardness to restrain of aution market.Dueto this difficulty from database, in this paper, the empirical analysis is impossible to be thourough or done at all.
Experience has proved that the development of a national art market could not beaccomplished at one stroke, in similar reson, the development of Chinese calligraphy andpainting works of art will also be a very long process.How can we make it smoothly intothe advanced leve,how can we make it get access to he rest of the world, how can wepush it into sustainable development road, and howe can we design the complete systemfor provides institution to the creation, packaging, circulation, consumption of art piece isan urgent problem or task.Chinese painting and calligraphy have unique,splendidcivilization,but the market environment lies in low level. The gap problem need not onlythe researchers of art area,but the contemporary economists to join in.I hope this papercan play a some role to arise the pondering.
引文
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