大连港铁矿石码头竞争力研究
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摘要
参照发达国家发展水平,我国人均表观钢铁消费量“饱和点”约为450千克,按2015年我国人口13.5亿计算,钢铁表观消费量将达到6.1亿吨。在“改善钢铁产品进出口环境,实施适度灵活的出口税收政策,稳定国际市场份额”的政策下,预计到2015年,我国钢铁产量将达到6.4亿吨,折合粗钢6.78亿吨,考虑国内矿山规划建设进展,预测2015年,我国铁矿石进口总量为7.5-7.64亿吨。而矿石进口主要靠水运,近来各大矿石码头纷纷投资建设大吨位矿石码头,营口港在鲅鱼圈建设的30万吨级矿石码头预计今年10月交工,青岛港年底也准备在董家口港区建设世界最大的40万吨级矿石码头,在竞争不断加剧的情况下建立一套铁矿石码头竞争力评价指标体系显得尤为重要,它可为大连港正确的战略定位提供依据。
本文首先以介绍港口竞争力的理论入手,总结了铁矿石码头竞争力评价的意义,并为后文铁矿石码头竞争力评价指标体系的建立做了铺垫。
其次,对大连铁矿石码头的竞争态势作了分析。针对我国铁矿石码头分布特点,介绍了与大连港铁矿石码头形成竞争态势的北方10万吨级及以上矿石码头的分布及发展现状,将青岛、天津以及日照港矿石码头定位为远期竞争对手,将营口港定位为目前的主要竞争对手,并分别按照决定港口竞争力的六个方面因素将两码头一一做了对比,分析了各自发展优势及劣势。
再次,利用AHP-模糊综合评价模型对大连港铁矿石码头的竞争力作了评价。对于指标体系中各指标的权重由层次分析法方法计算得到,对于指标体系中的定性指标通过专家打分法计算隶属度,定量指标评价标准通过查阅国内外矿石码头发展的相关指标得出,并利用中间为三角形分布,偏大偏小为半梯形分布的隶属函数计算隶属度,得到评价指标的模糊综合评价矩阵,进行二级模糊综合评价,得到大连港铁矿石码头的竞争力水平为“中”
最后,为提升大连港铁矿石码头竞争力提出了以战略联盟争取货源、服务延伸以及适时建设40到60万吨矿石码头等发展策略。
Reference to the developed countries, the "saturation point" of the steel consumption per person is about 450 kilograms in china, if we assume that China's population will be 1.35 billion in 2015, then the total of the steel consumption will reach 610 million tons. In the policy of improving the environment of import and export of steel products, the implementation of appropriate and flexible export tax policy, stable international market share, China's steel output may be reach 640 million tons in 2015, equivalent to 678 million tons of crude steel, considering the domestic mining planning and construction progress, it's predicted that we will import 7.5-7.64 million tons iron-ore. The transportation ways of importing iron-ore were mainly by water, recently many ports have invested to construct the iron-ore wharf of large-tonnage, Yingkou Port is expected to complete and hand over a 300,000-ton ore dock in Bayuquan in this October, Qingdao Port is also preparing to build the largest ore dock in the world of 400,000-ton in Dongjiakou, in the case of increasing competition to establish a iron-ore wharf competitive evaluation index system is particularly important, it can provide evidence for Dalian Port to come up the right strategic.
This article started with the theory of the competitiveness of the port, summed up the meaning of competitiveness evaluation of the iron-ore wharf, and paving the way for iron-ore wharf competitiveness evaluation index system.
Secondly, it analyzed the competitive situation of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port. For the distribution of iron-ore wharf, then introduced with the distribution and development of the North 100,000 tons of iron-ore wharf which competed with Dalian port.according to the analysis, it considered the iron-ore wharf of Qingdao, Tianjin and Rizhao port are long-term competitors, and the Yingkou Port is the current main competitor. At the end of this section it compared the competitiveness of iron-ore wharf in Yingkou port with its in Dalian port in accordance with the decision of the six factors of the iron-ore wharf competitiveness, analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of each.
Thirdly, it evaluated the competitiveness of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The weights of each indicator in index system were calculated by the analytic hierarchy process, the membership of the qualitative indicators was calculated by expert scoring; the evaluation standards of the quantitative indicators of iron-ore wharf got through searching the relevant indicators of the iron-ore wharf in domestic and international, then the membership of the quantitative indicators were calculated by the membership function with in middle for the triangular distribution, left and right for the semi-trapezoidal distribution, in the end we got the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix and process 2-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, with the example of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port, it got the conclusion that its competitiveness level is "medium".
Finally, to enhance the competitiveness of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port, this paper proposed a alliance strategic for the iron-ore, extension services and constructing 400,000 to 600,000 tons of iron-ore wharf at right time and some other strategic.
本文首先以介绍港口竞争力的理论入手,总结了铁矿石码头竞争力评价的意义,并为后文铁矿石码头竞争力评价指标体系的建立做了铺垫。
其次,对大连铁矿石码头的竞争态势作了分析。针对我国铁矿石码头分布特点,介绍了与大连港铁矿石码头形成竞争态势的北方10万吨级及以上矿石码头的分布及发展现状,将青岛、天津以及日照港矿石码头定位为远期竞争对手,将营口港定位为目前的主要竞争对手,并分别按照决定港口竞争力的六个方面因素将两码头一一做了对比,分析了各自发展优势及劣势。
再次,利用AHP-模糊综合评价模型对大连港铁矿石码头的竞争力作了评价。对于指标体系中各指标的权重由层次分析法方法计算得到,对于指标体系中的定性指标通过专家打分法计算隶属度,定量指标评价标准通过查阅国内外矿石码头发展的相关指标得出,并利用中间为三角形分布,偏大偏小为半梯形分布的隶属函数计算隶属度,得到评价指标的模糊综合评价矩阵,进行二级模糊综合评价,得到大连港铁矿石码头的竞争力水平为“中”
最后,为提升大连港铁矿石码头竞争力提出了以战略联盟争取货源、服务延伸以及适时建设40到60万吨矿石码头等发展策略。
Reference to the developed countries, the "saturation point" of the steel consumption per person is about 450 kilograms in china, if we assume that China's population will be 1.35 billion in 2015, then the total of the steel consumption will reach 610 million tons. In the policy of improving the environment of import and export of steel products, the implementation of appropriate and flexible export tax policy, stable international market share, China's steel output may be reach 640 million tons in 2015, equivalent to 678 million tons of crude steel, considering the domestic mining planning and construction progress, it's predicted that we will import 7.5-7.64 million tons iron-ore. The transportation ways of importing iron-ore were mainly by water, recently many ports have invested to construct the iron-ore wharf of large-tonnage, Yingkou Port is expected to complete and hand over a 300,000-ton ore dock in Bayuquan in this October, Qingdao Port is also preparing to build the largest ore dock in the world of 400,000-ton in Dongjiakou, in the case of increasing competition to establish a iron-ore wharf competitive evaluation index system is particularly important, it can provide evidence for Dalian Port to come up the right strategic.
This article started with the theory of the competitiveness of the port, summed up the meaning of competitiveness evaluation of the iron-ore wharf, and paving the way for iron-ore wharf competitiveness evaluation index system.
Secondly, it analyzed the competitive situation of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port. For the distribution of iron-ore wharf, then introduced with the distribution and development of the North 100,000 tons of iron-ore wharf which competed with Dalian port.according to the analysis, it considered the iron-ore wharf of Qingdao, Tianjin and Rizhao port are long-term competitors, and the Yingkou Port is the current main competitor. At the end of this section it compared the competitiveness of iron-ore wharf in Yingkou port with its in Dalian port in accordance with the decision of the six factors of the iron-ore wharf competitiveness, analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of each.
Thirdly, it evaluated the competitiveness of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The weights of each indicator in index system were calculated by the analytic hierarchy process, the membership of the qualitative indicators was calculated by expert scoring; the evaluation standards of the quantitative indicators of iron-ore wharf got through searching the relevant indicators of the iron-ore wharf in domestic and international, then the membership of the quantitative indicators were calculated by the membership function with in middle for the triangular distribution, left and right for the semi-trapezoidal distribution, in the end we got the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix and process 2-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, with the example of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port, it got the conclusion that its competitiveness level is "medium".
Finally, to enhance the competitiveness of iron-ore wharf in Dalian port, this paper proposed a alliance strategic for the iron-ore, extension services and constructing 400,000 to 600,000 tons of iron-ore wharf at right time and some other strategic.
引文
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[2]迈克尔·波特著.竞争战略[M].北京：华夏出版社.2005：33-35
[3]迈克尔·波特著,竞争优势[M].北京：华夏出版社.2005：40-62
[4]Bird J H. Seaport Gateways of Australia[M]. London:Oxford University Press.1968: 27-71
[5]Bird J H. Seaports and Seaport Terminals[M]. London:Hutchinson.1971:1-26
[6]Hoare A G.British ports and their export hinterlands:A rapidly changing geography[J].Geografiska Annaler,1978,68(B):29-40
[7]Slack B. International transportation in North America and the development of inland load centers[J]. Professional Geographier.1990,42(1):72-83
[8]Haynes, K.E., Hsing, Y. M., Stough, R. R.. Regional port dynamics in the global economy:The case of Kaohsiung, Taiwan[J]. Matitime Policy&Management,1997,24:93-113
[9]Jose Tongzon. Efficiency measurement of selected Australia and other international ports using data envelopment analysis[J]. Transportation Research Part A.2001,35: 107-122
[10]Notteboom, T., Coeck, C., Van Den Broeck, J. Measuring and explaining the relative efficiency of container terminals by means of Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Models[J]. International Journal of Maritime Economics.2000,2:83-106
[11]Fleming, D. K.. World container port rankings [J]. Matitime Policy&Management.1997, 24:175-181
[12]Robinson, R.. Ports as elements in value-driven chain system:The new paradigm[J]. Matitime Policy&Management.2002,29:241-255
[13]Ha, M. S.. A study on the evaluation on service quality of major container ports in North-East Asian region and their cooperative scheme[J]. Korea International Commerce Review.2001,16(1):143-171
[14]Cullinane,K., Khanna, M.. Economics of scale in large container shios[J]. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.1999,33, (2):185-208
[15]Malchow, M., Kanafani, A.. A disaggregate analysis of factors influencing port selection[J]. Maritime Policy&Management.2001,28:265-277
[16]Haezendonck, E., Notteboom, T.. The competitive advantage of seaports[J]. Matitime Policy&Management.2002,29:126-145
[17]Carlos Perez-Labajos, Beatriz Blanco. Competitive policies for commercial sea ports in the EU[J]. Marine Policy.2004,28:553-556
[18]J. E. Lee-Partridge, T. S.H. Teo, V. K. G. Lim. Information technology management:the case of the port of Singapore Aushority[J]. Journal of sStrategic Information Systems.2000,9:85-99
[19]Jose Tongzon, Wu Heng. Port privatization efficiency and competitiveness:Some empirical evidence from contaimer ports(terminals)[J]. Transportation Research Part A.2005,39:405-424
[20]Wei Yim Yap, Jasmine S. L. Lam. Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia[J]. Transportation Research Part A 40.2006:35-61
[21]许长新,徐杏.上海与周边港口的国际竞争策略[J].深圳大学学报.2001,3：29-32
[22]龚义式.台湾港口的竞争力现状[J].集装箱化.1998,3： 25-27
[23]邹友家.上海港与周边港口竞争力的比较与分析[J].中国水运.1998,7：7-10
[24]台湾海运协会.台湾地区国际港港埠改善策略之研究[J].海运研究学刊.2002,9：2-6
[25]孙光圻.大连东北亚重要国际航运中心的基本概念和功能定位[J].大连海事大学学报(社会科学版),2004,1：15-18
[26]黄健元,严以新.港口集装箱运输竞争力综合评价指标体系的设计方案[J].水运管理.2004,9：1-4
[27]纪永波,苏萍.模糊优选模型在集装箱港口综合竞争力评价中的应用[J].水运科学研究.2005,4： 3-6
[28]朱晓光.大连港口竞争力评价问题研究[J].大连海事大学.2005
[29]陈双喜.港口竞争力评价模型与东北亚港口竞争力的评价[J].大连海事大学学报.2006,5： 39-43
[30]陈纪伟.青岛国际集装箱港口竞争力评价及发展策略研究[J].大连海事大学.2006
[31]匡海波,陈树文.基于熵权TOPSIS的港口综合竞争力评价模型研究与实证[J].企业管理.2007,10：157-162
[32]唐丽敏,刘翠莲,李雪芬.基于市场划分的集装箱港口竞争力评价[J].大连海事大学学报.2007,6： 116-119
[33]杨萌.论物流价值链整合对港口竞争力的影响[J].物流经济.2008,2：48-49
[34]何凯.黄渤海地区集装箱港口竞争力研究[J].上海交通大学.2009
[35]丁昌元.大连港在环渤海港口群中的竞争力研究[J].大连交通大学.2009
[36]宋毳毳.基于DEA方法的港口竞争力评价研究[J].大连海事大学.2010
[37]王伟民.营口港在东北物流中的运输成本优势研究[J].大连海事大学.2008
[38]赵冰.基于BP神经网络的港口竞争力评价研究[J].大连海事大学.2008
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