群决策结果的可信性评估及决策机制改进研究
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摘要
群决策可能是追求决策方案更完备,也可能是追求决策结果(评价结果)在已有方案集内更准确,但更多的是先追求决策方案的完备性,再实现决策结果的准确性。本文假设决策方案是完备的,只对群决策结果的准确性做研究,即对群决策结果做可信性评估,并在评估的基础上对群决策机制提出新的改进方法。本文将专家的决策结果分为基于方案独立评价的确定性决策结果、基于方案比较评价的确定性决策结果、基于方案独立评价的模糊决策结果和基于方案比较评价的模糊决策结果四类,分别给出可信性评估方法。评估方法分为定性评估(即给出决策结果是否可接受的判断)和定量评估(只给出决策结果的可信度,但不给出具体判断)。可信性评估的主要依据是决策偏差,而决策偏差正是本文中群决策机制改进的重要依据,因此,决策结果的可信性评估可促进决策机制改进,而决策机制的改进又可以减小决策偏差。
本文认为专家对方案评价的主要依据是决策规则和方案本身,但决策中还存在决策人主观因素和随机因素的影响,后两种因素可能会对群决策结果的准确性产生较大的影响。本文正是通过对专家所给评价结果数据的分析,对群决策中专家、方案以及群结果的可信性做出定性或定量的评估。本文中的可信性评估按上面决策结果的分类分别做研究。
基于方案独立评价的确定性决策结果,即专家对每个方案均给出明确的评价值。本文假设专家对方案的评价值在仅受随机因素的影响下服从正态分布。文中将专家的评价值做适当变换,使所有数据均服从标准正态分布。然后,利用数理统计中的χ2统计量、F统计量和方差分析方法分别从不同的角度对决策结果做统计分析,最后对群决策结果的可信性做出全面的评估。
基于方案比较评价的确定性决策结果,又分为方案全排序决策结果和两两比较的判断矩阵决策结果。对全排序决策结果,本文利用数理统计中的t统计量和信息熵对专家的全排序决策结果的可信性做出定性和定量评估。对于判断矩阵决策结果,本文以判断矩阵的三元素一致性定义为基础,并以此作为决策结果可信性评估的依据,利用数理统计方法中的t统计量对专家的可信性、方案评价的可信性以及群结果的可信性做出评估。
基于方案独立评价的模糊决策结果,即专家对每个方案的评价结果是多个值或一个区间,并可给每个评价值赋予隶属度。本文对这一模糊决策结果的可信性评估主要依据专家评价结果的模糊度和一致度,模糊度是用来度量专家对方案评价结果的模糊程度。一致度是指专家对方案的评价结果与群评价结果或其他专家评价结果之间的一致程度。群评价结果的可信性是对所有专家评价结果可信性的综合。
基于方案比较评价的模糊决策结果,分为全排序的方案模糊位次决策结果和方案两两比较的模糊判断矩阵决策结果。对于模糊位次决策结果,本文利用信息熵度量专家决策结果的模糊度和一致度,最后,综合专家的模糊度和一致度,对专家决策结果的可信度给出一个评价值。对于模糊判断矩阵决策结果,本文仍以模糊度和一致度作为专家决策结果可信性评估的依据。群决策结果的可信性是对所有专家决策结果可信性的综合。
本文提出新的群决策机制改进方法,将群决策过程视为专家之间的完全信息静态博弈和决策发起人与专家之间(设专家与决策发起人之间存在利益冲突)的主从博弈两种均衡的实现过程。文中引入专家的投入偏差函数和偏差罚函数,通过对决策发起人与专家之间三种博弈模型的均衡分析,最终得出结论,加入偏差罚函数的博弈模型才能实现委托代理的激励相溶约束,决策发起人可以通过设定决策偏差的上限阀值改变均衡点,提高群决策的效率和决策结果的可信性。
Group decision making (GDM) may be in pursuit of completeness of alternatives, may be in pursuit of accuracy of results among specific set of alternatives. But most of GDM need them both. This thesis suppose that the set of alternatives is completeness, so only the accuracy of results is studied, that is only credibility evaluation of results of GDM is concerned. And a new method to develop mechanism of GDM based on credibility evaluation is proposed. The results of GDM are divided into four categories; evaluation method of each is studied. Evaluation method is divided into qualitative evaluation method and quantitative evaluation method. The basis of credibility evaluation is bias in decision making. The bias is also important basis of method to develop mechanism of GDM. So credibility evaluation of results can promote the improvement of decision making mechanism, while the improvement of decision making mechanism can reduce the bias of results.
Decision rule and alternatives are main basis of credibility evaluation. There are also subjective factors and random factors can influence the credibility evaluation. The thesis gives credibility evaluation of results of GDM based on the analysis of results given by experts. The evaluation methods of four categories are as follow.
Certainty decision results based on independent assessment of alternatives, the evaluation value of alternative that expert gives obeys normal distribution on the assumption that evaluation value is only influenced by random factor. The evaluation value is transformed appropriately, the transformed evaluation value obeys standard normal distribution. Then Chi-square statistic F statistic and variance analysis are used to make statistical analysis of results of GDM. Finally, overall credibility evaluation of results of GDM is given.
Certain results of DM based on comparison evaluation are divided into rank-based results and matrix-based results. For rank-based results, qualitative evaluation and quantitative evaluation of credibility of results are obtained by t statistic and information entropy, respectively. For matrix-based results, credibility evaluation of experts and alternatives are obtained by t statistic based on three-element consistency.
Fuzzy results of DM based on evaluation independently, that is the evaluation value of alternative is multi-valued or an interval. The credibility evaluation of fuzzy results is given based on ambiguity and consistency. The ambiguity is used to measure the degree of vagueness of results. The consistency is used to measure the degree of agreement among experts. Credibility evaluation of group is synthesis of credibility evaluation of experts.
Fuzzy results of DM based on comparison evaluation are divided into fuzzy rank-based results and fuzzy matrix-based results. For fuzzy rank-based results, information entropy is employed to measure ambiguity and consistency of results. Finally the credibility evaluation result is presented. For fuzzy matrix-based results, the credibility evaluation is obtained according to ambiguity and consistency of results. Credibility evaluation of group is synthesis of credibility evaluation of experts.
A new method to improve group-decision-making mechanism is proposed. The group-decision-making process is taken as a dynamic process, during which Nash equilibrium and sub game-perfect Nash equilibrium are obtained. In the thesis, input-bias function and bias penalty function are proposed. By equilibrium analysis of three typical game models, a result, that incentive compatibility constraint can be realized in game model through penalty function, is obtained. Sponsor can change equilibrium point through selection of threshold of deviations, so as to improve the efficiency and credibility of GDM.
本文认为专家对方案评价的主要依据是决策规则和方案本身,但决策中还存在决策人主观因素和随机因素的影响,后两种因素可能会对群决策结果的准确性产生较大的影响。本文正是通过对专家所给评价结果数据的分析,对群决策中专家、方案以及群结果的可信性做出定性或定量的评估。本文中的可信性评估按上面决策结果的分类分别做研究。
基于方案独立评价的确定性决策结果,即专家对每个方案均给出明确的评价值。本文假设专家对方案的评价值在仅受随机因素的影响下服从正态分布。文中将专家的评价值做适当变换,使所有数据均服从标准正态分布。然后,利用数理统计中的χ2统计量、F统计量和方差分析方法分别从不同的角度对决策结果做统计分析,最后对群决策结果的可信性做出全面的评估。
基于方案比较评价的确定性决策结果,又分为方案全排序决策结果和两两比较的判断矩阵决策结果。对全排序决策结果,本文利用数理统计中的t统计量和信息熵对专家的全排序决策结果的可信性做出定性和定量评估。对于判断矩阵决策结果,本文以判断矩阵的三元素一致性定义为基础,并以此作为决策结果可信性评估的依据,利用数理统计方法中的t统计量对专家的可信性、方案评价的可信性以及群结果的可信性做出评估。
基于方案独立评价的模糊决策结果,即专家对每个方案的评价结果是多个值或一个区间,并可给每个评价值赋予隶属度。本文对这一模糊决策结果的可信性评估主要依据专家评价结果的模糊度和一致度,模糊度是用来度量专家对方案评价结果的模糊程度。一致度是指专家对方案的评价结果与群评价结果或其他专家评价结果之间的一致程度。群评价结果的可信性是对所有专家评价结果可信性的综合。
基于方案比较评价的模糊决策结果,分为全排序的方案模糊位次决策结果和方案两两比较的模糊判断矩阵决策结果。对于模糊位次决策结果,本文利用信息熵度量专家决策结果的模糊度和一致度,最后,综合专家的模糊度和一致度,对专家决策结果的可信度给出一个评价值。对于模糊判断矩阵决策结果,本文仍以模糊度和一致度作为专家决策结果可信性评估的依据。群决策结果的可信性是对所有专家决策结果可信性的综合。
本文提出新的群决策机制改进方法,将群决策过程视为专家之间的完全信息静态博弈和决策发起人与专家之间(设专家与决策发起人之间存在利益冲突)的主从博弈两种均衡的实现过程。文中引入专家的投入偏差函数和偏差罚函数,通过对决策发起人与专家之间三种博弈模型的均衡分析,最终得出结论,加入偏差罚函数的博弈模型才能实现委托代理的激励相溶约束,决策发起人可以通过设定决策偏差的上限阀值改变均衡点,提高群决策的效率和决策结果的可信性。
Group decision making (GDM) may be in pursuit of completeness of alternatives, may be in pursuit of accuracy of results among specific set of alternatives. But most of GDM need them both. This thesis suppose that the set of alternatives is completeness, so only the accuracy of results is studied, that is only credibility evaluation of results of GDM is concerned. And a new method to develop mechanism of GDM based on credibility evaluation is proposed. The results of GDM are divided into four categories; evaluation method of each is studied. Evaluation method is divided into qualitative evaluation method and quantitative evaluation method. The basis of credibility evaluation is bias in decision making. The bias is also important basis of method to develop mechanism of GDM. So credibility evaluation of results can promote the improvement of decision making mechanism, while the improvement of decision making mechanism can reduce the bias of results.
Decision rule and alternatives are main basis of credibility evaluation. There are also subjective factors and random factors can influence the credibility evaluation. The thesis gives credibility evaluation of results of GDM based on the analysis of results given by experts. The evaluation methods of four categories are as follow.
Certainty decision results based on independent assessment of alternatives, the evaluation value of alternative that expert gives obeys normal distribution on the assumption that evaluation value is only influenced by random factor. The evaluation value is transformed appropriately, the transformed evaluation value obeys standard normal distribution. Then Chi-square statistic F statistic and variance analysis are used to make statistical analysis of results of GDM. Finally, overall credibility evaluation of results of GDM is given.
Certain results of DM based on comparison evaluation are divided into rank-based results and matrix-based results. For rank-based results, qualitative evaluation and quantitative evaluation of credibility of results are obtained by t statistic and information entropy, respectively. For matrix-based results, credibility evaluation of experts and alternatives are obtained by t statistic based on three-element consistency.
Fuzzy results of DM based on evaluation independently, that is the evaluation value of alternative is multi-valued or an interval. The credibility evaluation of fuzzy results is given based on ambiguity and consistency. The ambiguity is used to measure the degree of vagueness of results. The consistency is used to measure the degree of agreement among experts. Credibility evaluation of group is synthesis of credibility evaluation of experts.
Fuzzy results of DM based on comparison evaluation are divided into fuzzy rank-based results and fuzzy matrix-based results. For fuzzy rank-based results, information entropy is employed to measure ambiguity and consistency of results. Finally the credibility evaluation result is presented. For fuzzy matrix-based results, the credibility evaluation is obtained according to ambiguity and consistency of results. Credibility evaluation of group is synthesis of credibility evaluation of experts.
A new method to improve group-decision-making mechanism is proposed. The group-decision-making process is taken as a dynamic process, during which Nash equilibrium and sub game-perfect Nash equilibrium are obtained. In the thesis, input-bias function and bias penalty function are proposed. By equilibrium analysis of three typical game models, a result, that incentive compatibility constraint can be realized in game model through penalty function, is obtained. Sponsor can change equilibrium point through selection of threshold of deviations, so as to improve the efficiency and credibility of GDM.
引文
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