基于波浪理论与预测学方法的国际男装流行色趋势预测研究
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摘要
流行色的趋势预测是一门实践性很强的学科。准确的流行色预测和研究体系不仅能够帮助企业明确服装市场的发展动向,还能提升服装企业自主研发的能力。目前,我国大多数的服装企业采用主观判断法对未来产品的流行色进行预测。但由于缺少时尚话语权和相对薄弱的趋势研发经历,这一预测的准确性并不是很高。同时,流行预测领域中最有影响力的机构往往对其预测流程和方法有着保密措施,企业只能直接购买最终的趋势色卡获得流行资讯。这些色卡往往存在有不能很好地与企业本身的定位和需求相结合的问题。因此,针对以往的流行色资料进行分析总结,研究并归纳出一套建立在客观历史数据基础上的流行色发展规律,并搭建相关的定量流行色预测体系能够有效地帮助企业解决上述问题,提高预测工作的准确性。本课题正是从这一背景出发,旨在为服装企业提供一个较为客观的定量流行色预测体系。准确的定性流行色预测对从业人员的专业性、经验性和权威性等方面的要求非常高,很难通过一套特定的方法总结并运用。但定量流行色预测只用针对以往的客观数据进行观察,并从中找寻其运动发展的规律性特征。因此,服装从业人员只要具备有一定的流行色与预测学知识,定量流行色预测比定性流行色预测更容易掌握和理解。
本文以男装流行色预测作为突破点,在现有流行色预测方法的基础上,结合艾略特波浪理论和相关预测方法,建立起男装流行色定量预测的模型。该研究有着三个方面的创新点：首先,从理论上丰富了流行色预测研究。将经济学中波浪理论的相关概念和模型引入到流行色的预测中,借助流行色发展的周期性规律和男性消费与审美心理的调研,首次提出男装流行色特有的波浪理论与形态。该理论的提出能够帮助服装从业者更好地了解流行色波动的规律,并为具体的预测工作提供指导。其次是预测方法的创新,本文采用多个函数模型进行拟合的方式,并根据男装流行色波浪理论和各个函数的误差大小选择最为合适的预测模型,有效地提高了预测的准确率。再次,在流行色数值化处理方案上有着创新。通过引入计算机色彩系统,丰富了服装流行色由图像向数值转换的方法,简化了转换的流程,并在一定程度上提高了色彩取样的准确性。本课题提出的男装流行色定量预测模型利用历年男装信息中的红色系色彩作为实验对象,最终验证了男装流行色波浪理论的正确性,并通过采用具体的预测模型建立起以波浪理论为指导的男装定量流行色预测体系。其具体的研究思路与工作如下：
本文首先研究了流行色与流行色预测的相关知识。明确了流行色的概念、特点,引发流行色产生的各种因素,并重点阐述了流行色周期理论,得出流行色变化存在有周期性规律这一事实。尽管这一周期并非有着完全固定的循环时间,但基本保持有一定的形态特征。对这一形态变化的进一步探寻成为本课题中男装流行色波浪理论建立的基础。其次,分析获取流行色的途径和方法,介绍现有流行色预测机构并总结了主要的流行色预测方法和流程。从这一研究中,分析出定性流行色预测与定量流行色预测的优劣势,肯定了定量流行色预测的实用性,并提出提高定量流行色预测准确度有着两个关键要素,即保障实验数据的客观性以及选择预测模型的合理性是非常重要的。
第三章建立了数字化色彩系统。这一色彩系统的建立是帮助记录、存储、查阅历年流行色信息的有效途径,并能为接下来的流行走向判断提供更直观、更便于计算机进行模拟分析的数据。本章首先研究了色彩和表色系统的相关理论。将色彩系统按照色环、色立体、计算机色彩系统等几个类别进行分类说明,并进一步归纳了主要色彩系统相对应的表色方法,发现不同色彩系统的表色方法有着很大的差异。传统色立体在色彩展现上直观、便捷、容易理解,但色彩数值化过程相对复杂。色谱使色彩检索、操作和应用更方便、准确,但其表色规则不易做到统一性和规范性。而计算机色彩系统虽然赋值简洁,易于数学模型的计算,却也同样存在表色规则与人们对色彩的理解相差较远的问题。因此,针对数据来源的特点和预测的需求选择合适的色彩系统和相关表色方法,才能简化数据的转化过程并提高实验数据的准确性。本文即根据这一背景选择HSB表色体系作为色彩转换的工具。本章的第二部分对数字图形处理进行探索,并将图形处理的三个层次作为框架依据,利用计算机设备、软件与相关色彩系统构建起数字化色彩系统。
第四章提出了男装流行色波浪理论。重点探讨了经济学中波浪理论的基本形态和特征以及波浪理论的优劣势。受该波浪理论的启发,本章在现有流行色周期研究和对男性消费者进行调研的基础上,从色彩的流行度、色相、明度和饱和度四个方面提出各自的波浪运动形态。这四类波浪的基本形态均由向上的驱动浪和向下的调整浪组成。其中,流行度和色相的波动形态与原波浪理论的形态非常相似,本文将其分别归纳为5浪驱动加3浪调整的结构和3浪驱动加3浪调整的结构。而色彩的明度和饱和度由于受到季节的波动较大,其振动发展的频率快且较为规律。在男性消费者调研的基础上,将该波浪形态确定为1浪驱动加1浪调整的结构。同时指出,该男装流行色波浪理论需要得到历史数据的验证。由于在本研究之前,并没有出现过任何具体的针对流行色演变规律的成果,因此该理论是否符合男装流行色的发展形态还需要得到历史数据的验证与调整,才能够作为判定依据运用到具体的预测工作中去。该流行色波浪理论并非一种具体的预测模型和工具,但能够为流行色的分析提供一种前后关系,帮助预测工作者理解某一色彩在整体流行色波动中所处的环节,并根据其前后关系推断未来发展的方向。借助合理的预测学模型,在男装流行色波浪理论的指导下能进一步推算出预测点的具体数值。
第五章主要介绍了预测和相关的预测方法。首先,对预测的基本概念进行阐述,并归纳整理了预测的常见分类,探讨了预测学的原理与主要方法。其次,重点阐述了时间序列预测法中的趋势外推法,并将其作为本课题进行男装流行色预测的模型,对趋势外推法的特点、种类以及具体的模型进行了研究。
第六章是在结合了前五章的研究与成果基础上进行的流行色预测实验,并提出了基于波浪理论的国际男装流行色预测体系。本章首先阐述了该预测体系的方法和流程,包括有：(1)男装流行色数字化样本数据库的建立。(2)男装流行色波浪理论的检验与调整。(3)基于男装流行色波浪理论的初步判定。(4)确定趋势预测模型。(5)预测并评估误差。其次,将HSB作为本课题的表色体系,对流行色原始图像信息进行转化,建立起实验所需的男装流行色数字信息库,并以红色系的色彩作为实验对象,依照上述流程对色彩的流行度、色相、明度和饱和度数值进行预测和验证。通过该实验中对历史流行色数据的分析,发现男装流行色波浪理论与历史数据的发展是基本相符的,并利用历史数据散点图的信息进一步调整补充了该流行色波浪理论。通过男装流行色波浪理论分析预测点的发展阶段,初步判断该预测点的发展方向,并将此作为选择具体趋势预测模型的依据,利用具体的函数模型运算出预测点的数值。实验证明,通过波浪理论判定后的流行色定量预测有着很高的准确性,将色彩的三个参数进行组合和还原后,预测出的色彩样貌与实际信息的差异非常小。最终验证了该理论和模型的正确性和实用性。
Fashion color forecasting is a practical subject. Exact color prediction can not only help fashion brands realize the development of fashion market, but also advance its independent research ability. Recently, most fashion companies in China use the subjective judgment which is a mainstream method now to predict future fashion color. But, as those brands are weak having a saying in the fashion field and do not have enough experience of trend research, this subjective judgment is usually fallibility. Meanwhile, the most influential trend research institutes in fashion have very tight security measures about the forecasting method. Fashion companies in China can just only get the final trend book from them, which may have a big problem to meet the brand's own needs and characteristic. As a result, based on the analysis of historical fashion color resources, summarizing and proposing an effective law of development for fashion color is very helpful. Establish the quantitative forecasting for fashion color can help fashion brands solve such above problems and improve the veracity of prediction. Based on this background, this paper is directed at provide an objective quantitative forecasting system for fashion color. As qualitative forecast demands high specialty, experience and authority, it's hard to find a way to summarize a particular method which is applicable to most fashion companies. But, quantitative forecast just need observe the objective historical data and analyze the character of its development. So, compared to the qualitative forecast, if the researcher has knowledge in fashion color and forecasting, quantitative forecast is much easier to understand.
This paper selects menswear fashion color forecast as the point of penetration. Based on the existing fashion color prediction methods, combining wave principle and relative prediction method, this paper builds the menswear fashion color quantitative forecasting model. This subject has3innovations:firstly, theory creation on fashion color forecasting. Introduce in the wave principle which is used in the economics. Based on the fashion color cycle and the aesthetic psychology of male consumer, this paper supposes a menswear fashion color wave principle. This principle can help researcher understand the development of fashion color and be guidance for concrete prediction. Secondly, the creation on forecasting method. This paper uses multiple function models and chooses the most suitable one as the prediction model according to the menswear fashion color wave principle and the error size of each function models. This can enhance the accuracy of prediction. Thirdly, the technical creation on fashion color numeration. By introducing in the computer color system, this paper enriches the translation method through color image to data, simplifies the translation program and enhances the accuracy of color sampling. This menswear fashion color forecasting model uses red hue of historical menswear color information as the subject of experiment and finally verifies the accuracy of menswear fashion color wave principle. By using the exact prediction method, this subject builds the menswear fashion color quantitative forecasting model. The research frames and methods in this paper are as follows:
At first, this paper studies the basic knowledge of fashion color and fashion color forecast, illuminate the concept and characteristic of fashion color and analyze the elements which has great impact on fashion color. This section emphasizes on the fashion color cycle theory and points out that fashion color changes rhythmically. Although this cycle doesn't have fixed circulation time, but the basic form of color cycle is changeless. The further study of this color cycle becomes the basis of menswear color principle in this paper. The second, the author analyzes the methods and channel to obtain fashion color information and introduces the fashion color forecasting institutes and their prediction processing. From the comparison of advantage and disadvantage between qualitative forecast and quantitative forecast, quantitative forecast for fashion color prediction is adjudged more practical. These papers also points out that assures the objectivity of the data and select a suitable forecasting model is very important to improve accuracy.
Chapter Three pays attention to the digital color system. To build such a system is an effective way to record, consult historical fashion color information and can provide more convenient data for color forecasting. This chapter first studies the theory of color and color numeration system. It is divided into color circle, color solid and computer color system and so on. The author analyzes the numeration method of each color system and points out that there is great difference between each color numeration system. The traditional color solid is very convenient and intuitionist for understanding, but very complex for transformation. Color chromatograph is easy for color searching and operation, but the rules for numeration is lack of unity. The computer system can transfer color image to very simple data and is convenient for the calculation, but it also has the problem of understanding. So, to choose an appropriate color system according to the characteristic of data and the demand of prediction is very important to achieve a efficient and convenient data transformation. This paper chooses HSB color system as the tool for image transformation. In the second section of this chapter, the author studies the digital image processing and according to the3level requirements, built a digital color system using computer, software and relative color system.
In the forth chapter, the author proposes the menswear color wave principle. Wave principle in economics was studied and inspired by this principle, this paper propose wave principles for fashion degree, hue, saturation and brightness which is based on the study of fashion color cycle and research of male consumer investigation. Those four wave principle are basically composed of drive wave and adjust wave. The wave principle for fashion degree and hue are very similar to the original wave theory. This paper concludes them into2structures, the first is composed by5drive wave and3adjust wave and the second is composed by3drive wave and3adjust wave. As the fluctuate of saturation and brightness is affected by season, the vibration is quick and regular. In this paper, the author supposes the basic wave form is composed by1drive wave and1adjust wave according to the consumer investigation. As no such theory and principle about fashion color change exists before this paper, this menswear color wave principle must be authenticated by historical color data before the application. Also, this wave principle is not a concrete forecasting model, but it can provide a relationship for fashion color prediction and help the stuff understanding the position of the color each season when compared to the whole color development. By using its principle we can forecast the direction of the future color development and with a suitable forecasting model to calculate the exact data of the future color under the principle's guide.
The chapter5introduces the knowledge of forecasting and prediction method. Firstly, describes the concept of forecast and analyzes the most common categories and method of forecast. Secondly, the author illustrates the prediction extrapolation models and chooses it as the final model for the menswear fashion color forecast experiment in this paper.
The last chapter is the experiment for fashion color forecast according to the research and achievement based on the anterior chapter and proposes a menswear fashion color forecasting system which is based on wave principle. This chapter first describes the method and processing of this prediction system, including:(1) Building the digital menswear fashion color database.(2) Verifying tne menswear fashion color wave principle.(3) Predicting the direction of future according to this wave principle.(4) Selecting a forecasting model.(5) Predicting and verifying. Secondly, this paper uses the HSB numeration system to transfer color image into data and builds a digital menswear fashion color database for this experiment. In the experiment, the author chooses red hue as experimental object and predicts and validates the data of popularity value, hue, brightness and saturation according to this forecasting process. Through the analysis of historical fashion color data, this paper finds that the menswear fashion color wave principle actions accord with the development of historical color data. Based on the characteristic of historical data, this paper adjusts and amends the original wave form. Using it to judge the developing period of each color, designers can easily find the direction of the future color movements. Then using it as the standard to choose the exact prediction method and calculates the data of predictive point. The experimental result shows:this prediction model possesses very high accuracy after the decision of menswear fashion color wave principle. After the combination and translation of these3color elements, the predicted color is very similar to the actual result. This paper finally proved the correctness and practicability of this principle and prediction model.
本文以男装流行色预测作为突破点,在现有流行色预测方法的基础上,结合艾略特波浪理论和相关预测方法,建立起男装流行色定量预测的模型。该研究有着三个方面的创新点：首先,从理论上丰富了流行色预测研究。将经济学中波浪理论的相关概念和模型引入到流行色的预测中,借助流行色发展的周期性规律和男性消费与审美心理的调研,首次提出男装流行色特有的波浪理论与形态。该理论的提出能够帮助服装从业者更好地了解流行色波动的规律,并为具体的预测工作提供指导。其次是预测方法的创新,本文采用多个函数模型进行拟合的方式,并根据男装流行色波浪理论和各个函数的误差大小选择最为合适的预测模型,有效地提高了预测的准确率。再次,在流行色数值化处理方案上有着创新。通过引入计算机色彩系统,丰富了服装流行色由图像向数值转换的方法,简化了转换的流程,并在一定程度上提高了色彩取样的准确性。本课题提出的男装流行色定量预测模型利用历年男装信息中的红色系色彩作为实验对象,最终验证了男装流行色波浪理论的正确性,并通过采用具体的预测模型建立起以波浪理论为指导的男装定量流行色预测体系。其具体的研究思路与工作如下：
本文首先研究了流行色与流行色预测的相关知识。明确了流行色的概念、特点,引发流行色产生的各种因素,并重点阐述了流行色周期理论,得出流行色变化存在有周期性规律这一事实。尽管这一周期并非有着完全固定的循环时间,但基本保持有一定的形态特征。对这一形态变化的进一步探寻成为本课题中男装流行色波浪理论建立的基础。其次,分析获取流行色的途径和方法,介绍现有流行色预测机构并总结了主要的流行色预测方法和流程。从这一研究中,分析出定性流行色预测与定量流行色预测的优劣势,肯定了定量流行色预测的实用性,并提出提高定量流行色预测准确度有着两个关键要素,即保障实验数据的客观性以及选择预测模型的合理性是非常重要的。
第三章建立了数字化色彩系统。这一色彩系统的建立是帮助记录、存储、查阅历年流行色信息的有效途径,并能为接下来的流行走向判断提供更直观、更便于计算机进行模拟分析的数据。本章首先研究了色彩和表色系统的相关理论。将色彩系统按照色环、色立体、计算机色彩系统等几个类别进行分类说明,并进一步归纳了主要色彩系统相对应的表色方法,发现不同色彩系统的表色方法有着很大的差异。传统色立体在色彩展现上直观、便捷、容易理解,但色彩数值化过程相对复杂。色谱使色彩检索、操作和应用更方便、准确,但其表色规则不易做到统一性和规范性。而计算机色彩系统虽然赋值简洁,易于数学模型的计算,却也同样存在表色规则与人们对色彩的理解相差较远的问题。因此,针对数据来源的特点和预测的需求选择合适的色彩系统和相关表色方法,才能简化数据的转化过程并提高实验数据的准确性。本文即根据这一背景选择HSB表色体系作为色彩转换的工具。本章的第二部分对数字图形处理进行探索,并将图形处理的三个层次作为框架依据,利用计算机设备、软件与相关色彩系统构建起数字化色彩系统。
第四章提出了男装流行色波浪理论。重点探讨了经济学中波浪理论的基本形态和特征以及波浪理论的优劣势。受该波浪理论的启发,本章在现有流行色周期研究和对男性消费者进行调研的基础上,从色彩的流行度、色相、明度和饱和度四个方面提出各自的波浪运动形态。这四类波浪的基本形态均由向上的驱动浪和向下的调整浪组成。其中,流行度和色相的波动形态与原波浪理论的形态非常相似,本文将其分别归纳为5浪驱动加3浪调整的结构和3浪驱动加3浪调整的结构。而色彩的明度和饱和度由于受到季节的波动较大,其振动发展的频率快且较为规律。在男性消费者调研的基础上,将该波浪形态确定为1浪驱动加1浪调整的结构。同时指出,该男装流行色波浪理论需要得到历史数据的验证。由于在本研究之前,并没有出现过任何具体的针对流行色演变规律的成果,因此该理论是否符合男装流行色的发展形态还需要得到历史数据的验证与调整,才能够作为判定依据运用到具体的预测工作中去。该流行色波浪理论并非一种具体的预测模型和工具,但能够为流行色的分析提供一种前后关系,帮助预测工作者理解某一色彩在整体流行色波动中所处的环节,并根据其前后关系推断未来发展的方向。借助合理的预测学模型,在男装流行色波浪理论的指导下能进一步推算出预测点的具体数值。
第五章主要介绍了预测和相关的预测方法。首先,对预测的基本概念进行阐述,并归纳整理了预测的常见分类,探讨了预测学的原理与主要方法。其次,重点阐述了时间序列预测法中的趋势外推法,并将其作为本课题进行男装流行色预测的模型,对趋势外推法的特点、种类以及具体的模型进行了研究。
第六章是在结合了前五章的研究与成果基础上进行的流行色预测实验,并提出了基于波浪理论的国际男装流行色预测体系。本章首先阐述了该预测体系的方法和流程,包括有：(1)男装流行色数字化样本数据库的建立。(2)男装流行色波浪理论的检验与调整。(3)基于男装流行色波浪理论的初步判定。(4)确定趋势预测模型。(5)预测并评估误差。其次,将HSB作为本课题的表色体系,对流行色原始图像信息进行转化,建立起实验所需的男装流行色数字信息库,并以红色系的色彩作为实验对象,依照上述流程对色彩的流行度、色相、明度和饱和度数值进行预测和验证。通过该实验中对历史流行色数据的分析,发现男装流行色波浪理论与历史数据的发展是基本相符的,并利用历史数据散点图的信息进一步调整补充了该流行色波浪理论。通过男装流行色波浪理论分析预测点的发展阶段,初步判断该预测点的发展方向,并将此作为选择具体趋势预测模型的依据,利用具体的函数模型运算出预测点的数值。实验证明,通过波浪理论判定后的流行色定量预测有着很高的准确性,将色彩的三个参数进行组合和还原后,预测出的色彩样貌与实际信息的差异非常小。最终验证了该理论和模型的正确性和实用性。
Fashion color forecasting is a practical subject. Exact color prediction can not only help fashion brands realize the development of fashion market, but also advance its independent research ability. Recently, most fashion companies in China use the subjective judgment which is a mainstream method now to predict future fashion color. But, as those brands are weak having a saying in the fashion field and do not have enough experience of trend research, this subjective judgment is usually fallibility. Meanwhile, the most influential trend research institutes in fashion have very tight security measures about the forecasting method. Fashion companies in China can just only get the final trend book from them, which may have a big problem to meet the brand's own needs and characteristic. As a result, based on the analysis of historical fashion color resources, summarizing and proposing an effective law of development for fashion color is very helpful. Establish the quantitative forecasting for fashion color can help fashion brands solve such above problems and improve the veracity of prediction. Based on this background, this paper is directed at provide an objective quantitative forecasting system for fashion color. As qualitative forecast demands high specialty, experience and authority, it's hard to find a way to summarize a particular method which is applicable to most fashion companies. But, quantitative forecast just need observe the objective historical data and analyze the character of its development. So, compared to the qualitative forecast, if the researcher has knowledge in fashion color and forecasting, quantitative forecast is much easier to understand.
This paper selects menswear fashion color forecast as the point of penetration. Based on the existing fashion color prediction methods, combining wave principle and relative prediction method, this paper builds the menswear fashion color quantitative forecasting model. This subject has3innovations:firstly, theory creation on fashion color forecasting. Introduce in the wave principle which is used in the economics. Based on the fashion color cycle and the aesthetic psychology of male consumer, this paper supposes a menswear fashion color wave principle. This principle can help researcher understand the development of fashion color and be guidance for concrete prediction. Secondly, the creation on forecasting method. This paper uses multiple function models and chooses the most suitable one as the prediction model according to the menswear fashion color wave principle and the error size of each function models. This can enhance the accuracy of prediction. Thirdly, the technical creation on fashion color numeration. By introducing in the computer color system, this paper enriches the translation method through color image to data, simplifies the translation program and enhances the accuracy of color sampling. This menswear fashion color forecasting model uses red hue of historical menswear color information as the subject of experiment and finally verifies the accuracy of menswear fashion color wave principle. By using the exact prediction method, this subject builds the menswear fashion color quantitative forecasting model. The research frames and methods in this paper are as follows:
At first, this paper studies the basic knowledge of fashion color and fashion color forecast, illuminate the concept and characteristic of fashion color and analyze the elements which has great impact on fashion color. This section emphasizes on the fashion color cycle theory and points out that fashion color changes rhythmically. Although this cycle doesn't have fixed circulation time, but the basic form of color cycle is changeless. The further study of this color cycle becomes the basis of menswear color principle in this paper. The second, the author analyzes the methods and channel to obtain fashion color information and introduces the fashion color forecasting institutes and their prediction processing. From the comparison of advantage and disadvantage between qualitative forecast and quantitative forecast, quantitative forecast for fashion color prediction is adjudged more practical. These papers also points out that assures the objectivity of the data and select a suitable forecasting model is very important to improve accuracy.
Chapter Three pays attention to the digital color system. To build such a system is an effective way to record, consult historical fashion color information and can provide more convenient data for color forecasting. This chapter first studies the theory of color and color numeration system. It is divided into color circle, color solid and computer color system and so on. The author analyzes the numeration method of each color system and points out that there is great difference between each color numeration system. The traditional color solid is very convenient and intuitionist for understanding, but very complex for transformation. Color chromatograph is easy for color searching and operation, but the rules for numeration is lack of unity. The computer system can transfer color image to very simple data and is convenient for the calculation, but it also has the problem of understanding. So, to choose an appropriate color system according to the characteristic of data and the demand of prediction is very important to achieve a efficient and convenient data transformation. This paper chooses HSB color system as the tool for image transformation. In the second section of this chapter, the author studies the digital image processing and according to the3level requirements, built a digital color system using computer, software and relative color system.
In the forth chapter, the author proposes the menswear color wave principle. Wave principle in economics was studied and inspired by this principle, this paper propose wave principles for fashion degree, hue, saturation and brightness which is based on the study of fashion color cycle and research of male consumer investigation. Those four wave principle are basically composed of drive wave and adjust wave. The wave principle for fashion degree and hue are very similar to the original wave theory. This paper concludes them into2structures, the first is composed by5drive wave and3adjust wave and the second is composed by3drive wave and3adjust wave. As the fluctuate of saturation and brightness is affected by season, the vibration is quick and regular. In this paper, the author supposes the basic wave form is composed by1drive wave and1adjust wave according to the consumer investigation. As no such theory and principle about fashion color change exists before this paper, this menswear color wave principle must be authenticated by historical color data before the application. Also, this wave principle is not a concrete forecasting model, but it can provide a relationship for fashion color prediction and help the stuff understanding the position of the color each season when compared to the whole color development. By using its principle we can forecast the direction of the future color development and with a suitable forecasting model to calculate the exact data of the future color under the principle's guide.
The chapter5introduces the knowledge of forecasting and prediction method. Firstly, describes the concept of forecast and analyzes the most common categories and method of forecast. Secondly, the author illustrates the prediction extrapolation models and chooses it as the final model for the menswear fashion color forecast experiment in this paper.
The last chapter is the experiment for fashion color forecast according to the research and achievement based on the anterior chapter and proposes a menswear fashion color forecasting system which is based on wave principle. This chapter first describes the method and processing of this prediction system, including:(1) Building the digital menswear fashion color database.(2) Verifying tne menswear fashion color wave principle.(3) Predicting the direction of future according to this wave principle.(4) Selecting a forecasting model.(5) Predicting and verifying. Secondly, this paper uses the HSB numeration system to transfer color image into data and builds a digital menswear fashion color database for this experiment. In the experiment, the author chooses red hue as experimental object and predicts and validates the data of popularity value, hue, brightness and saturation according to this forecasting process. Through the analysis of historical fashion color data, this paper finds that the menswear fashion color wave principle actions accord with the development of historical color data. Based on the characteristic of historical data, this paper adjusts and amends the original wave form. Using it to judge the developing period of each color, designers can easily find the direction of the future color movements. Then using it as the standard to choose the exact prediction method and calculates the data of predictive point. The experimental result shows:this prediction model possesses very high accuracy after the decision of menswear fashion color wave principle. After the combination and translation of these3color elements, the predicted color is very similar to the actual result. This paper finally proved the correctness and practicability of this principle and prediction model.
引文
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