中国虾产品主要出口市场需求及空间整合研究
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摘要
虾产品是我国优势出口农产品,占水产品出口总额的13.5%。美国、日本、欧盟和韩国是世界虾产品主要进口市场,也是我国的主要出口市场。然而,近年来由于受美元贬值、反倾销以及药物残留超标等因素的影响,我国虾产品对美出口面临更大的困难;同时日本经济增长缓慢,抑制了其对进口虾产品的需求;又加上韩国为保护本国产业发展在虾产品进口市场准入方面设置了更多的障碍,使得中国虾产品在亚洲市场开发进一步受阻;在欧盟市场,尽管2004年7月欧盟对中国对虾贸易实行解禁,为中国虾产品的国际市场开拓提供了新的市场机会,然而世界虾产品主要供给国在同一时期转战欧盟市场的行动使得欧盟虾产品市场竞争日趋激烈。所有这些都为中国虾产品出口增添了困难,但是,也正是这种国际市场环境,使得我国虾产品出口比以往任何时候更需理论的支持和指导。
鉴于此,本文在借鉴国内外相关研究成果的基础上,运用经典需求理论、差异化进口需求理论与实证模型、市场空间整合理论和方法,借助于当今主流计量分析工具,利用联合国粮农组织渔业统计数据库(FAO,FishstatPlus)、联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade)、美国国家海洋与大气管理局海洋渔业服务部在线数据库(NOAA's NMFS)、美国国际贸易委员会贸易数据库(USITC)、日本财务省贸易统计数据库(TSOMOF)、欧盟统计数据库(Eurostat)以及韩国贸易协会统计数据库(KITA)等,从局部市场需求和市场之间空间整合程度两个角度,深层次探讨中国虾产品在其主要出口市场的需求规律。
在进行局部市场需求分析时,本文首先从被研究国虾产品人均消费的变动趋势及市场供应品组成结构入手,指出进口虾产品在被研究国食品消费中的重要地位和市场机会。接着通过对被研究国虾产品进口结构、主要来源国国别结构和市场份额的变动规律以及进口市场集中度的分析,明确被研究国虾产品进口市场竞争格局和不同来源国的竞争绩效。然后,借助于计量分析工具EViews和SAS统计软件,以似然比检验(并结合Barten消费函数选择方法和需求系统的拟合度)作为模型选择的标准,对被研究国进口需求月度数据与差异化进口需求模型(Rotterdam模型、CBS模型、一阶差分AIDS模型、NBR模型和General模型)进行适宜度检验,从而确定被研究国进口需求系统弹性估计的最佳实证模型,在此基础上拟合进口需求系统实证模型,并据此计算出被研究国虾产品进口总支出对不同来源国(产地)、不同产品形式的虾产品的支出弹性、自价格弹性和交叉价格弹性。最后,对研究结果加以分析和评述。目的在于明晰中国虾产品主要出口市场(美国、日本、欧盟、韩国)的需求特点,以及各个市场的消费者对中国虾产品需求的变动规律;同时进一步明确同一市场上竞争对手的虾产品对我国产品的替代(或影响)程度。
在检验区域市场之间空间整合程度时,利用被研究国进口虾产品贸易数据和主要批发市场的虾产品交易价格数据,借助于Johansen协整检验法,从加总产品层面和细分品种层面分析虾产品市场的空间整合关系,目的在于检验我国虾产品主要出口市场之间价格是否具有共同的变动趋势以及价格传递的动力机制。
本文的研究结果显示:美国虾产品总体需求趋于稳定,中国出口美国的虾产品品种单一,不属消费者偏好的主流产品形式,使得美国进口总支出对中国虾产品缺乏弹性,而单位价格弹性和竞争对手交叉价格弹性进一步表明,在美国市场,中国虾产品的影响力较弱,泰国、厄瓜多尔和越南虾产品对中国产品具有显著的替代效应;日本对虾产品的需求总体处于饱和状态,较之于印度、泰国、印尼和越南产品,日本消费者对中国虾制品已形成一定的偏好,但在冷冻生虾市场,中国弱势地位明显;欧盟市场虾产品需求增长潜力较大,但不同成员国偏好的多样性决定了欧盟市场开拓的复杂性,其中西班牙消费者对中国冷冻虾及虾仁支出缺乏弹性,但竞争对手阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、摩洛哥、哥伦比亚虾产品的替代效应不显著;韩国虾产品消费偏好正在逐步发生转移,而韩国进口虾产品总支出对中国缺乏弹性,对越南接近单位弹性,这说明韩国消费者偏好越南的冷冻虾及虾仁,另外,由于出口至韩国的产品类别各异,中国与越南、泰国虾产品的替代效应不显著。从市场空间整合关系来看,美、日、欧、韩虾产品的价格变化存在一定的长期整合关系,不同市场之间整合程度、价格传递方向和强度与虾产品的产地、规格、贸易量直接相关。
本文在此基础上提出相应的对策建议,以期为中国虾产品出口企业提高国际市场份额、提升国际市场竞争力提供理论参考。
Shrimp is one of China's dominant agricultural exports, accounting for 13.5% in the total revenue of its aquatic export. The United States, Japan, the European Union and Korea are the four major shrimp import markets in the world, and are also the main export markets for Chinese shrimp. In recent years, China faces greater difficulty to export shrimp to the US market because of US dollar deflation and the introduction of practice against dumpling and excessive residual medicine; Japan reduces shrimp import demand because of its slower economy growth; To support its national industries, Korea set up more trade barriers to restrain foreign shrimp from entering its market and, as a result, China has greater in difficulty developing Asian shrimp market; In the EU market, although EU began to relieve restrictions on the import of Chinese shrimp in July 2004, the market has becoming increasingly competitive since then because more and more major world suppliers entered this market. These market dynamics have provided huge difficulties to Chinese shrimp exporters, but, at the same time, they make it more necessary than ever to provide theoretical support and guidance to these exporters.
In view of these dynamics, this dissertation, based upon past research results in this field and with the aid of modern econometric instruments, applies classical demand theory, Differentiated Import Demand Models, and Spatial Market Integration theory and method, both at local market and inter-market level, to analyze data from FAO, UN Comtrade, NOAA's NMFS, USITC, TSOMOF, Eurostat and KITA to explore the demand rules of Chinese shrimp in its major export markets.
When analyzing local market demand, this dissertation starts by analyzing the trend of per capita shrimp consumption for the import countries and the composition of market offerings, and then demonstrates the importance of shrimp to consumers in these countries and market opportunities for shrimp exporters. Then, it analyzes the composition of shrimp importers, and the evolution of market shares and market concentration to identify the competition dynamics in the shrimp import markets and relative competition performance of major competitors. Then, with the aid of EViews and SAS and according to the fitness between the monthly data for import countries and the Source Differentiated Import Demand Models (Rotterdam Model, CBS Model, first difference AIDS Model, NBR Model and the General Model), which is represented by likelihood ratio (combined with Barten's model choice criteria and the fitness indexes of demand systems), the suitability of the models is tested to determine the best model for empirical research. The chosen models are then fitted and expenditure elasticities for different sources and varieties, own price elasticities and cross price elasticities are calculated. Finally, research results are summarized and commented in order to characterize the major import markets for Chinese shrimp and the substitution effects between competitors.
When analyzing inter-market spatial integration, this dissertation analyzes trade data and major wholesales market data of import markets to identify the degree of inter-market integration by Johansen co-integration test, both at aggregate and separate level, in order to test whether there exist common trends in prices between different markets and the dynamics of price transition.
The research results shows that the US demand for shrimp tend to stabilize and Chinese shrimp has limited influence in this market because of its lack of variety, which is represented by expenditure inelasticity, unity own price elasticity and cross price elasticity and the fact that shrimps from Thailand, Ecuador and Vietnam have significant substitution effect on Chinese shrimp. Japanese demand for shrimp has been saturated. Although Japanese consumers prefer Chinese shrimp product to those of India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, as far as frozen shrimp is concerned, Chinese product is in an inferior position. There exist considerable potential for growth in the UN market, but the existence of huge preference variety of its member countries poses difficulty in developing this market. Spanish demand for Chinese frozen shrimps&prawns is inelastic and the substitution effect of Argentina, Ecuador, Morocco, and Colombia's shrimp on Chinese is insignificant. In Korea, consumers are changing their preferences. They prefer Vietnamese frozen shrimps&prawns to Chinese as shown by the fact that they present expenditure inelasticity for Chinese shrimp but nearly unity elasticity for Vietnamese shrimp. In addition, because China export different product to Korea than Vietnam and Thailand, the substitution effects between them are insignificant. As far as inter-market integration is concerned, long-run price integration relation does exist among the US, Japanese, Korea and the UN shrimp markets, and the degree and direction of this integration relationship are closely related to factors such as origin, specification and trading volume.
Finally, measures are proposed as theoretical support for Chinese shrimp exporting companies in their efforts to enhance their international market shares and competitiveness.
鉴于此,本文在借鉴国内外相关研究成果的基础上,运用经典需求理论、差异化进口需求理论与实证模型、市场空间整合理论和方法,借助于当今主流计量分析工具,利用联合国粮农组织渔业统计数据库(FAO,FishstatPlus)、联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade)、美国国家海洋与大气管理局海洋渔业服务部在线数据库(NOAA's NMFS)、美国国际贸易委员会贸易数据库(USITC)、日本财务省贸易统计数据库(TSOMOF)、欧盟统计数据库(Eurostat)以及韩国贸易协会统计数据库(KITA)等,从局部市场需求和市场之间空间整合程度两个角度,深层次探讨中国虾产品在其主要出口市场的需求规律。
在进行局部市场需求分析时,本文首先从被研究国虾产品人均消费的变动趋势及市场供应品组成结构入手,指出进口虾产品在被研究国食品消费中的重要地位和市场机会。接着通过对被研究国虾产品进口结构、主要来源国国别结构和市场份额的变动规律以及进口市场集中度的分析,明确被研究国虾产品进口市场竞争格局和不同来源国的竞争绩效。然后,借助于计量分析工具EViews和SAS统计软件,以似然比检验(并结合Barten消费函数选择方法和需求系统的拟合度)作为模型选择的标准,对被研究国进口需求月度数据与差异化进口需求模型(Rotterdam模型、CBS模型、一阶差分AIDS模型、NBR模型和General模型)进行适宜度检验,从而确定被研究国进口需求系统弹性估计的最佳实证模型,在此基础上拟合进口需求系统实证模型,并据此计算出被研究国虾产品进口总支出对不同来源国(产地)、不同产品形式的虾产品的支出弹性、自价格弹性和交叉价格弹性。最后,对研究结果加以分析和评述。目的在于明晰中国虾产品主要出口市场(美国、日本、欧盟、韩国)的需求特点,以及各个市场的消费者对中国虾产品需求的变动规律;同时进一步明确同一市场上竞争对手的虾产品对我国产品的替代(或影响)程度。
在检验区域市场之间空间整合程度时,利用被研究国进口虾产品贸易数据和主要批发市场的虾产品交易价格数据,借助于Johansen协整检验法,从加总产品层面和细分品种层面分析虾产品市场的空间整合关系,目的在于检验我国虾产品主要出口市场之间价格是否具有共同的变动趋势以及价格传递的动力机制。
本文的研究结果显示:美国虾产品总体需求趋于稳定,中国出口美国的虾产品品种单一,不属消费者偏好的主流产品形式,使得美国进口总支出对中国虾产品缺乏弹性,而单位价格弹性和竞争对手交叉价格弹性进一步表明,在美国市场,中国虾产品的影响力较弱,泰国、厄瓜多尔和越南虾产品对中国产品具有显著的替代效应;日本对虾产品的需求总体处于饱和状态,较之于印度、泰国、印尼和越南产品,日本消费者对中国虾制品已形成一定的偏好,但在冷冻生虾市场,中国弱势地位明显;欧盟市场虾产品需求增长潜力较大,但不同成员国偏好的多样性决定了欧盟市场开拓的复杂性,其中西班牙消费者对中国冷冻虾及虾仁支出缺乏弹性,但竞争对手阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、摩洛哥、哥伦比亚虾产品的替代效应不显著;韩国虾产品消费偏好正在逐步发生转移,而韩国进口虾产品总支出对中国缺乏弹性,对越南接近单位弹性,这说明韩国消费者偏好越南的冷冻虾及虾仁,另外,由于出口至韩国的产品类别各异,中国与越南、泰国虾产品的替代效应不显著。从市场空间整合关系来看,美、日、欧、韩虾产品的价格变化存在一定的长期整合关系,不同市场之间整合程度、价格传递方向和强度与虾产品的产地、规格、贸易量直接相关。
本文在此基础上提出相应的对策建议,以期为中国虾产品出口企业提高国际市场份额、提升国际市场竞争力提供理论参考。
Shrimp is one of China's dominant agricultural exports, accounting for 13.5% in the total revenue of its aquatic export. The United States, Japan, the European Union and Korea are the four major shrimp import markets in the world, and are also the main export markets for Chinese shrimp. In recent years, China faces greater difficulty to export shrimp to the US market because of US dollar deflation and the introduction of practice against dumpling and excessive residual medicine; Japan reduces shrimp import demand because of its slower economy growth; To support its national industries, Korea set up more trade barriers to restrain foreign shrimp from entering its market and, as a result, China has greater in difficulty developing Asian shrimp market; In the EU market, although EU began to relieve restrictions on the import of Chinese shrimp in July 2004, the market has becoming increasingly competitive since then because more and more major world suppliers entered this market. These market dynamics have provided huge difficulties to Chinese shrimp exporters, but, at the same time, they make it more necessary than ever to provide theoretical support and guidance to these exporters.
In view of these dynamics, this dissertation, based upon past research results in this field and with the aid of modern econometric instruments, applies classical demand theory, Differentiated Import Demand Models, and Spatial Market Integration theory and method, both at local market and inter-market level, to analyze data from FAO, UN Comtrade, NOAA's NMFS, USITC, TSOMOF, Eurostat and KITA to explore the demand rules of Chinese shrimp in its major export markets.
When analyzing local market demand, this dissertation starts by analyzing the trend of per capita shrimp consumption for the import countries and the composition of market offerings, and then demonstrates the importance of shrimp to consumers in these countries and market opportunities for shrimp exporters. Then, it analyzes the composition of shrimp importers, and the evolution of market shares and market concentration to identify the competition dynamics in the shrimp import markets and relative competition performance of major competitors. Then, with the aid of EViews and SAS and according to the fitness between the monthly data for import countries and the Source Differentiated Import Demand Models (Rotterdam Model, CBS Model, first difference AIDS Model, NBR Model and the General Model), which is represented by likelihood ratio (combined with Barten's model choice criteria and the fitness indexes of demand systems), the suitability of the models is tested to determine the best model for empirical research. The chosen models are then fitted and expenditure elasticities for different sources and varieties, own price elasticities and cross price elasticities are calculated. Finally, research results are summarized and commented in order to characterize the major import markets for Chinese shrimp and the substitution effects between competitors.
When analyzing inter-market spatial integration, this dissertation analyzes trade data and major wholesales market data of import markets to identify the degree of inter-market integration by Johansen co-integration test, both at aggregate and separate level, in order to test whether there exist common trends in prices between different markets and the dynamics of price transition.
The research results shows that the US demand for shrimp tend to stabilize and Chinese shrimp has limited influence in this market because of its lack of variety, which is represented by expenditure inelasticity, unity own price elasticity and cross price elasticity and the fact that shrimps from Thailand, Ecuador and Vietnam have significant substitution effect on Chinese shrimp. Japanese demand for shrimp has been saturated. Although Japanese consumers prefer Chinese shrimp product to those of India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, as far as frozen shrimp is concerned, Chinese product is in an inferior position. There exist considerable potential for growth in the UN market, but the existence of huge preference variety of its member countries poses difficulty in developing this market. Spanish demand for Chinese frozen shrimps&prawns is inelastic and the substitution effect of Argentina, Ecuador, Morocco, and Colombia's shrimp on Chinese is insignificant. In Korea, consumers are changing their preferences. They prefer Vietnamese frozen shrimps&prawns to Chinese as shown by the fact that they present expenditure inelasticity for Chinese shrimp but nearly unity elasticity for Vietnamese shrimp. In addition, because China export different product to Korea than Vietnam and Thailand, the substitution effects between them are insignificant. As far as inter-market integration is concerned, long-run price integration relation does exist among the US, Japanese, Korea and the UN shrimp markets, and the degree and direction of this integration relationship are closely related to factors such as origin, specification and trading volume.
Finally, measures are proposed as theoretical support for Chinese shrimp exporting companies in their efforts to enhance their international market shares and competitiveness.
引文
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