我国种植业空间布局演变（1978-2009）
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国种植业的空间布局发生了深刻变化。空间布局的变化是趋于专业化还是分散化,直接影响到我国种植业比较优势的发挥,同时也会对种植业的生产效率产生间接的影响。此外,种植业空间布局的变迁是否符合比较收益原则,关系到市场机制是否在农业生产中发挥合理的调节作用,同时还会影响到农民收入乃至整个农业的增长。
本文选取了12种主要农作物,以1978-2009年的省级面板数据对我国种植业的空间布局演变进行了实证研究,主要结论包括三个方面：
第一,改革开放以来我国粮食作物总播种面积下降了约10个点,各粮食作物在全国范围内的分布格局也呈现出较大的差异性,综合而言,我国粮食作物的专业化和集中化趋势比较明显；而棉花、花生、油菜籽、甘蔗和烤烟等经济作物的种植面积都呈现出上升的趋势,各类作物在不同地区之间的分布格局也发生了较大改变。第二,自1978年以来,全国平均种植业区域专业化指数呈先降后升的明显趋势,个别年份出现波动,可能与当时的政策或经济环境有关；各地种植业区域专业化指数及其变化趋势存在较大差异,农产品结构单一的地区以及经济较发达的地区往往专业化指数较高,而且大都呈上升趋势；而传统农业大省的专业化指数一般较低,且大都呈下降趋势。
第三,我国大部分农作物的结构变化与空间布局变化是符合比较收益原则的,说明我国农业生产中的市场化机制比较顺畅,农民基本上可以按照市场需求和成本收益状况来自由作出生产决策；但仍然有个别省区在某些作物的种植上违背了这一原则,如一些粮食生产大省在政府行政干预下不得不大量种植比较收益较低的粮食作物。此外,在全国及地区水平上,大部分农作物种植面积比的变化基本上都滞后于其收益比的变化一到两年。也就意味着,农民往往会依据前一两年收益情况作出生产决策,这对于我国农业生产结构和空间布局的调整是一个重要的参考依据。
对此,本文提出要深化农村市场机制改革,让市场发挥更大的作用；加大各类补贴力度,优化补贴结构；提高农产品的最低收购价格；加大对农作物主产区尤其是产出大县的扶持力度；积极推进农产品生产基地建设等措施。
Since the Reform and Opening-up, the spatial layout of China's crop farming has changed profoundly. Whether this change tends to specialization or decentralization affects the exertion of comparative revenue of China's crop farming directly. Meanwhile, it will also influence the farming production efficiency indirectly. Additionally, if the revolution of spatial layout of crop farming accords with the rule of comparative revenue concerns the regulating effect of market mechanism on agriculture production, as well as the growth of farmer income and even the whole agriculture sector.
In the dissertation, the revolution of spatial layout of China's crop farming has been studied by selecting12main crops and a panel data at provincial level from1978to2009. The major conclusions consist of three aspects.
Firstly, the total sown area of China's grain crops has decreased about10percent since the Reform and Opening-up, while the distribution pattern of different grains on the national level shows huge diversity. In summary, the specialization and centralization of China's grains are apparent, and the sown area of economic crops shows ascending trends, with obvious variation on the distribution pattern of grain crops at different regions.
Secondly, the national average index of regional specialization of crop farming has experienced an abovious U-shape's trend, with fluctuation in individual years, which may be related with the policy and economy environment at that time. Large difference exists among the regional specialization index of crop farming and its variation trend in different regions. The specialization index tends to be high and ascending in the area with simplex agricultural products structure and developed economy. However, the indices in traditional agricultural provinces are generally low and descending.
Thirdly, the changes of crops' structure and spatial layout conform to the rule of comparative revenue in most regions of China, indicating that the market mechanism is unhindered in China's agricultural production, and famers can make production decisions basically freely according to market demand and cost-benefit situation. Still, there are individual provinces violating this principle on some crops, for example, several major grain producing provinces have to grow plenty of grain crops with low comparative revenue under the administrative intervation. In addition, the variation of sown area ratio of most crops at the national and regional level basically lags behind the variation of revenue ratio for one or two years, which means farmers tends to make production decisions according to the revenue situation one or two years ago. This conclusion is an important reference on the adjustment of production structure and spatial layout of China's agriculture.
Consequently, some measures are proposed in this dissertation, for example, deepening the reform of rural market mechanism, so that the market can play a greater role; improving subsidy level and optimizing its structure; raising minimum purchase prices of agriculture products; increasing the support degree on main areas of producing crops, especially main counties of producing grain; promoting the construction of producing bases of agricultural products.
本文选取了12种主要农作物,以1978-2009年的省级面板数据对我国种植业的空间布局演变进行了实证研究,主要结论包括三个方面：
第一,改革开放以来我国粮食作物总播种面积下降了约10个点,各粮食作物在全国范围内的分布格局也呈现出较大的差异性,综合而言,我国粮食作物的专业化和集中化趋势比较明显；而棉花、花生、油菜籽、甘蔗和烤烟等经济作物的种植面积都呈现出上升的趋势,各类作物在不同地区之间的分布格局也发生了较大改变。第二,自1978年以来,全国平均种植业区域专业化指数呈先降后升的明显趋势,个别年份出现波动,可能与当时的政策或经济环境有关；各地种植业区域专业化指数及其变化趋势存在较大差异,农产品结构单一的地区以及经济较发达的地区往往专业化指数较高,而且大都呈上升趋势；而传统农业大省的专业化指数一般较低,且大都呈下降趋势。
第三,我国大部分农作物的结构变化与空间布局变化是符合比较收益原则的,说明我国农业生产中的市场化机制比较顺畅,农民基本上可以按照市场需求和成本收益状况来自由作出生产决策；但仍然有个别省区在某些作物的种植上违背了这一原则,如一些粮食生产大省在政府行政干预下不得不大量种植比较收益较低的粮食作物。此外,在全国及地区水平上,大部分农作物种植面积比的变化基本上都滞后于其收益比的变化一到两年。也就意味着,农民往往会依据前一两年收益情况作出生产决策,这对于我国农业生产结构和空间布局的调整是一个重要的参考依据。
对此,本文提出要深化农村市场机制改革,让市场发挥更大的作用；加大各类补贴力度,优化补贴结构；提高农产品的最低收购价格；加大对农作物主产区尤其是产出大县的扶持力度；积极推进农产品生产基地建设等措施。
Since the Reform and Opening-up, the spatial layout of China's crop farming has changed profoundly. Whether this change tends to specialization or decentralization affects the exertion of comparative revenue of China's crop farming directly. Meanwhile, it will also influence the farming production efficiency indirectly. Additionally, if the revolution of spatial layout of crop farming accords with the rule of comparative revenue concerns the regulating effect of market mechanism on agriculture production, as well as the growth of farmer income and even the whole agriculture sector.
In the dissertation, the revolution of spatial layout of China's crop farming has been studied by selecting12main crops and a panel data at provincial level from1978to2009. The major conclusions consist of three aspects.
Firstly, the total sown area of China's grain crops has decreased about10percent since the Reform and Opening-up, while the distribution pattern of different grains on the national level shows huge diversity. In summary, the specialization and centralization of China's grains are apparent, and the sown area of economic crops shows ascending trends, with obvious variation on the distribution pattern of grain crops at different regions.
Secondly, the national average index of regional specialization of crop farming has experienced an abovious U-shape's trend, with fluctuation in individual years, which may be related with the policy and economy environment at that time. Large difference exists among the regional specialization index of crop farming and its variation trend in different regions. The specialization index tends to be high and ascending in the area with simplex agricultural products structure and developed economy. However, the indices in traditional agricultural provinces are generally low and descending.
Thirdly, the changes of crops' structure and spatial layout conform to the rule of comparative revenue in most regions of China, indicating that the market mechanism is unhindered in China's agricultural production, and famers can make production decisions basically freely according to market demand and cost-benefit situation. Still, there are individual provinces violating this principle on some crops, for example, several major grain producing provinces have to grow plenty of grain crops with low comparative revenue under the administrative intervation. In addition, the variation of sown area ratio of most crops at the national and regional level basically lags behind the variation of revenue ratio for one or two years, which means farmers tends to make production decisions according to the revenue situation one or two years ago. This conclusion is an important reference on the adjustment of production structure and spatial layout of China's agriculture.
Consequently, some measures are proposed in this dissertation, for example, deepening the reform of rural market mechanism, so that the market can play a greater role; improving subsidy level and optimizing its structure; raising minimum purchase prices of agriculture products; increasing the support degree on main areas of producing crops, especially main counties of producing grain; promoting the construction of producing bases of agricultural products.
引文
9 引自百度百科：http:/baike.baidu.com/view/274508.htm。
10 四川省科技厅油菜专家咨询系统,http://222.208.126.138:8182/zjxt/yc3/index.htm
14 引自百度百科：http://baike.baidu.com/view/40634.htm.
引自新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2002-10/23/content_605197.htm
24 数据来源：《中国农村统计年鉴》2010。
25 数据来源：同上。
26 数据来源：同上。
34 近年来,党和国家高度提高重视农产品收购价格,如2012年两会上,温家宝总理提出要“继续提高农产品的收购价格”,引自新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/20121h/2012-03/15/c 111660147.htm;各有关部门也高度重视这一工作,出台有关政策提高粮食主产区的小麦、水稻等最低收购价格,见：http://finance.sina.com.cn/360desktop/nongye/nyqyjj/20120624/022912384309.shtml; http://finance.sina.com.cn/360desktop/nongye/nyhgjj/20120904/164413043137.shtml。
35 转引自新浪财经http://finance.sina.com.cn/nongye/nyhgjj/20121105/102713576540.shtml
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10 四川省科技厅油菜专家咨询系统,http://222.208.126.138:8182/zjxt/yc3/index.htm
14 引自百度百科：http://baike.baidu.com/view/40634.htm.
引自新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2002-10/23/content_605197.htm
24 数据来源：《中国农村统计年鉴》2010。
25 数据来源：同上。
26 数据来源：同上。
34 近年来,党和国家高度提高重视农产品收购价格,如2012年两会上,温家宝总理提出要“继续提高农产品的收购价格”,引自新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/20121h/2012-03/15/c 111660147.htm;各有关部门也高度重视这一工作,出台有关政策提高粮食主产区的小麦、水稻等最低收购价格,见：http://finance.sina.com.cn/360desktop/nongye/nyqyjj/20120624/022912384309.shtml; http://finance.sina.com.cn/360desktop/nongye/nyhgjj/20120904/164413043137.shtml。
35 转引自新浪财经http://finance.sina.com.cn/nongye/nyhgjj/20121105/102713576540.shtml
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