人口年龄结构变动与经济增长
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摘要
不同年龄段人口的经济行为具有“异质性”。老年人口、少儿人口和劳动年龄人口的生产行为、储蓄行为、消费行为、投资行为等存在显著差异。那么,人口年龄结构变动必然通过影响一系列中介变量最终传递到经济增长上来。人口年龄结构变动所带来的影响是多方面、多层次、多维度的,既包括经济方面的影响,也包括社会方面的影响；既包括宏观层面的储蓄、消费、投资、经常项目差额等的影响,也包括微观层面的家庭结构变化、子女抚养、老年赡养等的影响。一个国家或地区属于“幼年型”、“成年型”还是“老年型”与这个国家的经济增长存在密切关系。但是,关于人口年龄结构变动与经济增长关系的全面系统研究,在国内仍然相对缺乏和薄弱。深入探讨人口年龄结构变动所引起的经济效应以及系统研究其传导机理对于人口年龄结构变动明显以及即将发生重大转折背景下的中国经济增长具有重要政策含义。
人口年龄结构变动过程中,劳动力抚养负担减轻会形成一个有利于经济增长的极为重要的“结构性红利”——人口红利。人口红利是21世纪中国跨越式发展的动力,是全面建设小康社会的战略机遇期,是未来中国经济增长的源泉。探讨人口红利对经济增长的影响具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。如何充分地获取人口年龄结构变动所带来的这种结构性优势,对于中长期经济持续快速增长具有重要启示。如何利用人口红利积累的社会经济基础来应对未来的人口老龄化和人口负债也是亟需研究的重要课题。
论文着力探讨人口年龄结构变动以及因之带来的人口红利的宏观经济效应。内容主要围绕以下几方面展开：第一,构建人口年龄结构变动作用于经济增长的传导机制——储蓄(投资)机制、居民消费机制以及净出口(经常项目差额)机制。第二,建立人口年龄结构与经济增长的宏观分析框架。一方面从国际视角分析“东亚奇迹”中人口转变的作用；另一方面构建空间面板模型分析人口红利对中国经济增长的影响以及其“外溢效应”。第三,提出利用人口年龄结构变动促进经济增长的战略和对策,主要围绕“后人口红利利用和挖掘战略”和“人口红利消减的替代与转换战略”两部分展开。具体而言,全文共分为9章。
首先是导论。这章提出研究背景、研究意义以及探讨的问题,阐述了研究思路、研究内容和框架设计,总结论文的创新之处,并指出未来进一步的研究方向。
第1章是理论支撑和文献综述。首先对人口转变理论、生命周期理论、人口变动与经济增长理论进行了简要回顾。在此基础上,分别从人口年龄结构作用于经济增长的理论研究、经验研究、最新进展以及研究评介等四方面对国内外相关研究进行较为系统的梳理,为后文的深入分析提供基础和支撑。
第2章是研究基础。这章对人口年龄结构及人口红利的概念进行讨论和界定,对人口年龄结构变动情况以及这种变动作用于经济增长的内在机理做出初步探讨,提出了人口年龄结构变动作用于经济增长的“三条子传导机制”。
第3章分析人口年龄结构变动对储蓄率的影响。这章在引入人口年龄结构变量的生命周期储蓄函数基础上,采用二步系统GMM方法,通过工具变量解决变量的内生性影响,进而分析人口年龄结构变动对储蓄率的影响。经验研究发现,生命周期模型能够在一定程度上解释中国的高储蓄率。少儿抚养负担对储蓄率具有显著影响,并且在10%的水平上显著为负；老年赡养负担对储蓄率的影响为正,但并不显著；总抚养负担减轻带来的储蓄率提高主要是由于快速下降的少儿抚养负担引致。未来应密切关注抚养负担变化尤其是老年赡养负担变化如何影响居民储蓄以及因之可能发生的各种经济社会变化。
第4章分析人口年龄结构变动对居民消费率的影响。这章在提出“三个假说”基础上,利用我国30个省市区1990-2006年的面板数据进行动态GMM估计。少儿抚养负担对消费率存在显著影响,但老年赡养负担对消费率的影响并不显著。少儿抚养负担的减轻显著降低了东部和中部的消费率,但对西部地区的影响不显著。少儿抚养负担在全国水平上以及东、中部地区的快速下降是1990年以来居民消费率持续向低振荡的重要原因之一。然而,随着少儿抚养负担下降空间的缩小,它对消费率的影响将逐渐趋弱,而老年赡养负担的变化对居民消费率的影响值得进一步关注。
第5章分析人口年龄结构对净出口贡献率的影响。这章首先提出人口年龄结构变动作用经常项目差额的“三阶段说”和传导机理,进而从国际面板数据和中国时序数据两个维度出发,采用混合估计、静态面板估计以及动态面板估计对人口年龄结构的这一影响进行实证。经验研究表明：抚养负担变化对经常项目变动具有显著的反向冲击,发达国家人口年龄结构对经常项目差额的影响主要通过老年赡养负担进行,而发展中国家(地区)和亚洲国家(地区)主要通过少儿抚养负担进行。长期而言,人口年龄结构变动带来的劳动力负担减轻促使经常项目盈余。充分利用现有的经常项目盈余(贸易余额)或者说充裕的资本进行跨国投资,增加资本利得,是应对未来年龄结构老化的关键之举。
第6章分析了人口年龄结构变动对东亚经济增长的影响。首先通过构建人口转变指数刻画了东亚国家和地区人口转变的“不同步性”——三个梯队。在此基础上,引入空间矩阵w构建空间面板计量模型,对1969-1996年东亚经济起飞的历史数据进行经验分析。结果发现：人口转变显著地促使东亚经济起飞,而东亚的经济社会发展政策为利用人口转变创造了条件；少儿抚养负担和老年赡养负担变化均对东亚经济增长产生负作用,但在相同的变化幅度下,前者的影响小于后者。东亚经验对中国具有重要启示意义。
第7章对中国人口年龄结构变动和人口红利进行全面评价。本章评价了人口红利的动态性,并对区域之间、地区之间、国家之间的人口红利及抚养负担进行比较和预测,最后对人口红利的获取背景、经验以及不足等进行了探讨。
第8章对中国人口红利与经济增长的关系进行检验。基于1990-2007年30个省域单元的空间动态面板计量模型,本章分析了人口红利变化对经济增长的影响以及人口红利的“外溢效应”。结果发现：人口红利的显著增加促进了省域经济增长；东部存在显著的人口红利外溢,但中、西部的外溢效应不显著；从区际来看,东、中之间存在一定的空间“溢出效应”,而其他区域之间均不显著。人口红利的出现显著促进了中国经济增长,但人口红利的“溢出”并未得到最有效的发挥。应创造人口红利的吸收条件,促进人口红利充分流动,适时选择延续人口红利。
第9章提出利用人口年龄结构变动促进经济增长的战略对策。一方面,应积极实施产业结构调整升级和经济增长方式转型战略、劳动力“全流通”战略与充分参与战略、老年市场参与战略、退休年龄延长战略、集中型抚养和赡养战略、人口红利应对人口负债战略,充分利用和挖掘“后人口红利”。另一方面,随着人口老龄化的发展,人口红利终将消失,应推进实施劳动力质量优势转变战略、“第二次人口红利”获取战略、人口红利消逝与退休年龄延长和计划生育政策调整相协调战略。
The economic behaviors of population groups of different ages are 'heterogeneous'. The production behavior, saving behavior, consumption behavior and investment behavior are significantly different between the senior, junior population group and work force. The variations of age structure will surely pass on to economic growth through a series of intermediate factors. The impacts of these variations are multi-dimensional, and on different aspects and levels, including economic impacts and social impacts; include impacts on macro levels such as savings, consumption, investment and current account balance also with impacts on micro levels such as family structure variation, children raising and aged parents support. Whether a country/region is 'juvenile' or 'adult' or 'aged' has close relationship with the economic growth of the country/region. However, systematic researches on the relationship between China's age structure variation and economic growth are still insufficient. We need to make thorough analysis and research on the economic effects of the age structure variation, especially the conducting mechanism between age structure variation and economic growth.
During the process of population age structure variation, the decrease of dependency load will form a very important 'structural dividend' to economic growth——the demographic dividend. Demographic dividend is the driving power of China's development in 21st century, the opportunity for building 'well-off society' and the headspring of future economic growth of China. There is much theoretical and practical value in researching the impact of demographic dividend on economic growth. How to fully exploit the structural advantage brought by age structure variation is an important inspiration for keeping the medium-and-long-term economic growing fast in future. How to use the social and economic foundation accumulated by demographic dividend to answer the future challenge of population ageing and demographic debt is also an important subject that needs to be researched.
Therefore, this thesis put emphasis on researching the age structure variation and the demographic dividend brought by it. The research is composed of the following parts:1. Establishing the conducting mechanism between population age structure variation and economic growth——saving (investment) mechanism, household consumption mechanism and net export (current account balance) mechanism.2. Establishing the macro analysis framework on population age structure and economic growth. Firstly we analyze the effects of population age structure variation in'East Asia Miracle', then built the spatial panel model to analyze the impact of China's demographic dividend on economic growth and the'spillover effect' of demographic dividend.3. Putting forward the strategy and policy suggestions about using age structure to promote the economic growth, including 'post demographic dividend exploitation strategy' and 'the replacement and transition strategy on the diminishing of demographic dividend. The whole thesis is composed of 9 chapters.
First is the introduction. This part explains the research background, research value and the subjects of the research. It also illustrates the methodology, the content and the framework of the research. Then we summarize the innovation of the thesis and propose the future research direction.
Chapter 1 is about the theory background and literature review. This chapter firstly gives a review to population transition theory, life cycle theory, population variation and economic growth theory. Then we give a systematic introduction about related researches at home and abroad from 4 sides:the theoretic and empirical researches, the latest developments and the evaluation.
Chapter 2 is the research foundation. This chapter defines the concept of population age structure and demographic dividend, gives a preliminary analysis on population age structure variation and the logical mechanism of its effect on economic growth, then presents the 'sub conducting mechanism' of the effect of age structure variation on economic growth.
Chapter 3 analyzes the impact of population age structure variation on household saving rate. On the basis of life-cycle saving rate function about population age structure variable, this chapter estimates with two-step system GMM method in which the endogenous effect of the variable is solved with instrumental variable, then analyzes the impact of population age structure variation on saving rate. Empirical research indicates that life-cycle model can explain the saving rate in China to some extent. The dependency load of raising children is significant to saving rate. The effect is negative on the level of 10%; The effect of the dependency load of aged people is positive but not significant; The saving rate increase caused by the decrease of general dependency load are mainly due to the fast decrease of the dependency load of raising children. In the future the dependency load (especially of aged people) variation should be closely monitored, so is its impact on saving rate and other social, economic changes.
Chapter 4 analyzed the effect of population age structure on household consumption rate. On the basis of the 'three hypotheses', we use dynamic GMM estimator based on 30 provinces of China from 1990 to 2006 to build provincial panel. The results suggest that the burden of raising children significantly reduces the rate of consumption, but the aged people dependency burden on it is not significant. It is also found that the reducing of the burden of children significantly drops the consumption rate in the eastern and central regions, but has little impact in the western region. The fast decrease of children raising burden in the middle, eastern region and on nation level is an important reason of the continuously downward oscillation of household consumption rate since 1990. However, as the space of the children raising burden decrease is diminishing, its impact on consumption rate will gradually get weaker, and the effect of the variation of aged people burden on consumption rate is worthy of further attention.
Chapter 5 analyzes the impact of age structure on net export. In this chapter, we first present the 'three phases' of how age structure variation affects the current account balance and conducting mechanism. Then we estimate the impact of age structure with the methods of mixed estimation, static panel and dynamic panel. The results show that dependency ratio variation significantly affects the current account negatively. However, the impact of age structure on current account in developed countries is mainly through the elderly dependency while it is primarily through the children dependency in developing countries (regions) and Asian countries (regions). The labor load alleviation brought by age structure variation affects the current account surplus by greatly stimulating net export. Fully exploiting the current account surplus (trade surplus) by invest internationally is of great strategic importance to answer the challenge of the ageing of population.
Chapter 6 analyzes the impact of age structure variation on the economic growth of East Asia. First we illustrate the demographic transition of the nations and regions of East Asia by establishing the demographic transition index. On basis of the index we build the spatial panel model and empirically analyzes the take-off of East Asia from 1969 to 1996. The results show that the demographic transition significantly promotes the take-off of East Asian, while the economic and social development policies in East Asia provide opportunities for the use of demographic transition effect. Both the dependency burden of children and the aged have negative effect on the economic growth in East Asia, but the influence of the former is weaker than the latter under the same range. The experience of East Asia is of great value to China's future economic development.
Chapter 7 gives full evaluation on China's age structure variation and demographic dividend. We evaluate the dynamic of demographic dividend, and then compare, predict the demographic dividend and dependency ration across regions and nations. Finally we discuss the background, experience and lessons of the demographic dividend exploitation.
Chapter 8 analyzes the relationship between China's demographic dividend and economic growth. We build a dynamic spatial panel model with provincial data from 1990 to 2007 of 30 provinces and gives empirical analysis. Some conclusions are found as follows. The demographic dividend promotes the provincial economic growth significantly. It also has a significant role in the eastern, central and western regional economic growth, but there is obvious difference among them. The spillover of demographic dividend in the eastern is significant, but not significant in other regions. Among different regions, there are spillover effects in the east and central, while not significant in other regions. The demographic dividend promotes China's economic growth significantly but the'spillover' of demographic dividend is not fully exploited. In the future we need to create favorable conditions to exploit demographic dividend, facilitate the flow of demographic dividend, and extend demographic dividend in time.
Chapter 9 is the policy suggestions on how to use age structure transition to promote economic growth. On one hand, we shall actively implement the strategy of industrial structure upgrade and transition of economic growth style. We also need to implement the'full flow' and full participation of labor force strategy, aged citizen participation strategy, retirement age extension strategy, collective children raising and aged citizen support strategy, demographic dividend to tackle demographic liability strategy, fully exploit'post demographic dividend'. On the other hand, with the development of population ageing, population dividend will finally vanish. We need to implement labor quality advantage transition strategy,'second demographic dividend' strategy and the strategy to coordinate the demographic dividend vanishing with retirement age extension and adjustment in birth control policy.
人口年龄结构变动过程中,劳动力抚养负担减轻会形成一个有利于经济增长的极为重要的“结构性红利”——人口红利。人口红利是21世纪中国跨越式发展的动力,是全面建设小康社会的战略机遇期,是未来中国经济增长的源泉。探讨人口红利对经济增长的影响具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。如何充分地获取人口年龄结构变动所带来的这种结构性优势,对于中长期经济持续快速增长具有重要启示。如何利用人口红利积累的社会经济基础来应对未来的人口老龄化和人口负债也是亟需研究的重要课题。
论文着力探讨人口年龄结构变动以及因之带来的人口红利的宏观经济效应。内容主要围绕以下几方面展开：第一,构建人口年龄结构变动作用于经济增长的传导机制——储蓄(投资)机制、居民消费机制以及净出口(经常项目差额)机制。第二,建立人口年龄结构与经济增长的宏观分析框架。一方面从国际视角分析“东亚奇迹”中人口转变的作用；另一方面构建空间面板模型分析人口红利对中国经济增长的影响以及其“外溢效应”。第三,提出利用人口年龄结构变动促进经济增长的战略和对策,主要围绕“后人口红利利用和挖掘战略”和“人口红利消减的替代与转换战略”两部分展开。具体而言,全文共分为9章。
首先是导论。这章提出研究背景、研究意义以及探讨的问题,阐述了研究思路、研究内容和框架设计,总结论文的创新之处,并指出未来进一步的研究方向。
第1章是理论支撑和文献综述。首先对人口转变理论、生命周期理论、人口变动与经济增长理论进行了简要回顾。在此基础上,分别从人口年龄结构作用于经济增长的理论研究、经验研究、最新进展以及研究评介等四方面对国内外相关研究进行较为系统的梳理,为后文的深入分析提供基础和支撑。
第2章是研究基础。这章对人口年龄结构及人口红利的概念进行讨论和界定,对人口年龄结构变动情况以及这种变动作用于经济增长的内在机理做出初步探讨,提出了人口年龄结构变动作用于经济增长的“三条子传导机制”。
第3章分析人口年龄结构变动对储蓄率的影响。这章在引入人口年龄结构变量的生命周期储蓄函数基础上,采用二步系统GMM方法,通过工具变量解决变量的内生性影响,进而分析人口年龄结构变动对储蓄率的影响。经验研究发现,生命周期模型能够在一定程度上解释中国的高储蓄率。少儿抚养负担对储蓄率具有显著影响,并且在10%的水平上显著为负；老年赡养负担对储蓄率的影响为正,但并不显著；总抚养负担减轻带来的储蓄率提高主要是由于快速下降的少儿抚养负担引致。未来应密切关注抚养负担变化尤其是老年赡养负担变化如何影响居民储蓄以及因之可能发生的各种经济社会变化。
第4章分析人口年龄结构变动对居民消费率的影响。这章在提出“三个假说”基础上,利用我国30个省市区1990-2006年的面板数据进行动态GMM估计。少儿抚养负担对消费率存在显著影响,但老年赡养负担对消费率的影响并不显著。少儿抚养负担的减轻显著降低了东部和中部的消费率,但对西部地区的影响不显著。少儿抚养负担在全国水平上以及东、中部地区的快速下降是1990年以来居民消费率持续向低振荡的重要原因之一。然而,随着少儿抚养负担下降空间的缩小,它对消费率的影响将逐渐趋弱,而老年赡养负担的变化对居民消费率的影响值得进一步关注。
第5章分析人口年龄结构对净出口贡献率的影响。这章首先提出人口年龄结构变动作用经常项目差额的“三阶段说”和传导机理,进而从国际面板数据和中国时序数据两个维度出发,采用混合估计、静态面板估计以及动态面板估计对人口年龄结构的这一影响进行实证。经验研究表明：抚养负担变化对经常项目变动具有显著的反向冲击,发达国家人口年龄结构对经常项目差额的影响主要通过老年赡养负担进行,而发展中国家(地区)和亚洲国家(地区)主要通过少儿抚养负担进行。长期而言,人口年龄结构变动带来的劳动力负担减轻促使经常项目盈余。充分利用现有的经常项目盈余(贸易余额)或者说充裕的资本进行跨国投资,增加资本利得,是应对未来年龄结构老化的关键之举。
第6章分析了人口年龄结构变动对东亚经济增长的影响。首先通过构建人口转变指数刻画了东亚国家和地区人口转变的“不同步性”——三个梯队。在此基础上,引入空间矩阵w构建空间面板计量模型,对1969-1996年东亚经济起飞的历史数据进行经验分析。结果发现：人口转变显著地促使东亚经济起飞,而东亚的经济社会发展政策为利用人口转变创造了条件；少儿抚养负担和老年赡养负担变化均对东亚经济增长产生负作用,但在相同的变化幅度下,前者的影响小于后者。东亚经验对中国具有重要启示意义。
第7章对中国人口年龄结构变动和人口红利进行全面评价。本章评价了人口红利的动态性,并对区域之间、地区之间、国家之间的人口红利及抚养负担进行比较和预测,最后对人口红利的获取背景、经验以及不足等进行了探讨。
第8章对中国人口红利与经济增长的关系进行检验。基于1990-2007年30个省域单元的空间动态面板计量模型,本章分析了人口红利变化对经济增长的影响以及人口红利的“外溢效应”。结果发现：人口红利的显著增加促进了省域经济增长；东部存在显著的人口红利外溢,但中、西部的外溢效应不显著；从区际来看,东、中之间存在一定的空间“溢出效应”,而其他区域之间均不显著。人口红利的出现显著促进了中国经济增长,但人口红利的“溢出”并未得到最有效的发挥。应创造人口红利的吸收条件,促进人口红利充分流动,适时选择延续人口红利。
第9章提出利用人口年龄结构变动促进经济增长的战略对策。一方面,应积极实施产业结构调整升级和经济增长方式转型战略、劳动力“全流通”战略与充分参与战略、老年市场参与战略、退休年龄延长战略、集中型抚养和赡养战略、人口红利应对人口负债战略,充分利用和挖掘“后人口红利”。另一方面,随着人口老龄化的发展,人口红利终将消失,应推进实施劳动力质量优势转变战略、“第二次人口红利”获取战略、人口红利消逝与退休年龄延长和计划生育政策调整相协调战略。
The economic behaviors of population groups of different ages are 'heterogeneous'. The production behavior, saving behavior, consumption behavior and investment behavior are significantly different between the senior, junior population group and work force. The variations of age structure will surely pass on to economic growth through a series of intermediate factors. The impacts of these variations are multi-dimensional, and on different aspects and levels, including economic impacts and social impacts; include impacts on macro levels such as savings, consumption, investment and current account balance also with impacts on micro levels such as family structure variation, children raising and aged parents support. Whether a country/region is 'juvenile' or 'adult' or 'aged' has close relationship with the economic growth of the country/region. However, systematic researches on the relationship between China's age structure variation and economic growth are still insufficient. We need to make thorough analysis and research on the economic effects of the age structure variation, especially the conducting mechanism between age structure variation and economic growth.
During the process of population age structure variation, the decrease of dependency load will form a very important 'structural dividend' to economic growth——the demographic dividend. Demographic dividend is the driving power of China's development in 21st century, the opportunity for building 'well-off society' and the headspring of future economic growth of China. There is much theoretical and practical value in researching the impact of demographic dividend on economic growth. How to fully exploit the structural advantage brought by age structure variation is an important inspiration for keeping the medium-and-long-term economic growing fast in future. How to use the social and economic foundation accumulated by demographic dividend to answer the future challenge of population ageing and demographic debt is also an important subject that needs to be researched.
Therefore, this thesis put emphasis on researching the age structure variation and the demographic dividend brought by it. The research is composed of the following parts:1. Establishing the conducting mechanism between population age structure variation and economic growth——saving (investment) mechanism, household consumption mechanism and net export (current account balance) mechanism.2. Establishing the macro analysis framework on population age structure and economic growth. Firstly we analyze the effects of population age structure variation in'East Asia Miracle', then built the spatial panel model to analyze the impact of China's demographic dividend on economic growth and the'spillover effect' of demographic dividend.3. Putting forward the strategy and policy suggestions about using age structure to promote the economic growth, including 'post demographic dividend exploitation strategy' and 'the replacement and transition strategy on the diminishing of demographic dividend. The whole thesis is composed of 9 chapters.
First is the introduction. This part explains the research background, research value and the subjects of the research. It also illustrates the methodology, the content and the framework of the research. Then we summarize the innovation of the thesis and propose the future research direction.
Chapter 1 is about the theory background and literature review. This chapter firstly gives a review to population transition theory, life cycle theory, population variation and economic growth theory. Then we give a systematic introduction about related researches at home and abroad from 4 sides:the theoretic and empirical researches, the latest developments and the evaluation.
Chapter 2 is the research foundation. This chapter defines the concept of population age structure and demographic dividend, gives a preliminary analysis on population age structure variation and the logical mechanism of its effect on economic growth, then presents the 'sub conducting mechanism' of the effect of age structure variation on economic growth.
Chapter 3 analyzes the impact of population age structure variation on household saving rate. On the basis of life-cycle saving rate function about population age structure variable, this chapter estimates with two-step system GMM method in which the endogenous effect of the variable is solved with instrumental variable, then analyzes the impact of population age structure variation on saving rate. Empirical research indicates that life-cycle model can explain the saving rate in China to some extent. The dependency load of raising children is significant to saving rate. The effect is negative on the level of 10%; The effect of the dependency load of aged people is positive but not significant; The saving rate increase caused by the decrease of general dependency load are mainly due to the fast decrease of the dependency load of raising children. In the future the dependency load (especially of aged people) variation should be closely monitored, so is its impact on saving rate and other social, economic changes.
Chapter 4 analyzed the effect of population age structure on household consumption rate. On the basis of the 'three hypotheses', we use dynamic GMM estimator based on 30 provinces of China from 1990 to 2006 to build provincial panel. The results suggest that the burden of raising children significantly reduces the rate of consumption, but the aged people dependency burden on it is not significant. It is also found that the reducing of the burden of children significantly drops the consumption rate in the eastern and central regions, but has little impact in the western region. The fast decrease of children raising burden in the middle, eastern region and on nation level is an important reason of the continuously downward oscillation of household consumption rate since 1990. However, as the space of the children raising burden decrease is diminishing, its impact on consumption rate will gradually get weaker, and the effect of the variation of aged people burden on consumption rate is worthy of further attention.
Chapter 5 analyzes the impact of age structure on net export. In this chapter, we first present the 'three phases' of how age structure variation affects the current account balance and conducting mechanism. Then we estimate the impact of age structure with the methods of mixed estimation, static panel and dynamic panel. The results show that dependency ratio variation significantly affects the current account negatively. However, the impact of age structure on current account in developed countries is mainly through the elderly dependency while it is primarily through the children dependency in developing countries (regions) and Asian countries (regions). The labor load alleviation brought by age structure variation affects the current account surplus by greatly stimulating net export. Fully exploiting the current account surplus (trade surplus) by invest internationally is of great strategic importance to answer the challenge of the ageing of population.
Chapter 6 analyzes the impact of age structure variation on the economic growth of East Asia. First we illustrate the demographic transition of the nations and regions of East Asia by establishing the demographic transition index. On basis of the index we build the spatial panel model and empirically analyzes the take-off of East Asia from 1969 to 1996. The results show that the demographic transition significantly promotes the take-off of East Asian, while the economic and social development policies in East Asia provide opportunities for the use of demographic transition effect. Both the dependency burden of children and the aged have negative effect on the economic growth in East Asia, but the influence of the former is weaker than the latter under the same range. The experience of East Asia is of great value to China's future economic development.
Chapter 7 gives full evaluation on China's age structure variation and demographic dividend. We evaluate the dynamic of demographic dividend, and then compare, predict the demographic dividend and dependency ration across regions and nations. Finally we discuss the background, experience and lessons of the demographic dividend exploitation.
Chapter 8 analyzes the relationship between China's demographic dividend and economic growth. We build a dynamic spatial panel model with provincial data from 1990 to 2007 of 30 provinces and gives empirical analysis. Some conclusions are found as follows. The demographic dividend promotes the provincial economic growth significantly. It also has a significant role in the eastern, central and western regional economic growth, but there is obvious difference among them. The spillover of demographic dividend in the eastern is significant, but not significant in other regions. Among different regions, there are spillover effects in the east and central, while not significant in other regions. The demographic dividend promotes China's economic growth significantly but the'spillover' of demographic dividend is not fully exploited. In the future we need to create favorable conditions to exploit demographic dividend, facilitate the flow of demographic dividend, and extend demographic dividend in time.
Chapter 9 is the policy suggestions on how to use age structure transition to promote economic growth. On one hand, we shall actively implement the strategy of industrial structure upgrade and transition of economic growth style. We also need to implement the'full flow' and full participation of labor force strategy, aged citizen participation strategy, retirement age extension strategy, collective children raising and aged citizen support strategy, demographic dividend to tackle demographic liability strategy, fully exploit'post demographic dividend'. On the other hand, with the development of population ageing, population dividend will finally vanish. We need to implement labor quality advantage transition strategy,'second demographic dividend' strategy and the strategy to coordinate the demographic dividend vanishing with retirement age extension and adjustment in birth control policy.
引文
① Bloom, D.E. and Williamson, J.G., Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia, World Bank Economic Review,1998, Vol.12, pp.419-455.
①参见：黑田俊夫,《亚洲人口年龄结构变化与社会经济发展的关系》,载《人口学刊》,1993年4期,第3-9页。
①参见：陈卫,《是人口红利?还是人口问题?》,载《人口研究》,2007年第2期,第41页。
①参见：刘家强、唐代盛,《关于人口红利问题的几点思考》,载《市场与人口分析》,2007年第4期,第33-35页。
② Mason, A. and Lee, R.， Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend, Genus,2006, Vol.57, No.2, pp.11-35.
①参见：李仲生,《人口经济学》,北京：清华大学出版社,2006年版,第201-202页。
①参见：封进,《人口转变、社会保障与经济发展》,上海：上海人民出版社,2005年,第60页。
① Jeffrey G.Williamson, Growth， Distribution and Demography:Some Lessons from History, Explorations in Economic History,1998, Vol.35, pp.242.
①参见：钟水映、李魁,《中国人口红利评价》,载《经济理论与经济管理》,2009年第2期,第29-34页。
①参见：武元晋、徐勤,《中国人口老化对社会经济发展和家庭的影响》,载《老龄问题国际讨论会文集》,北京：劳动人事出版社,1988年,第24-42页。
②参见：王金营、付秀彬,《考虑人口年龄结构变动的中国消费函数计量分析》,载《人口研究》,2006年第1期,第29-36页。
③ Modigliani, F. and Brumburg, R., Utility Analyses and the Consumption Function, Chapter15, in Post Keynesian Economics, K.K.Kurihara (ed).New Brunswick, NJ:Rutgers University Press,1954.
④参见：钟水映、李魁,《劳动力抚养负担对居民储蓄率的影响研究》,载《中国人口科学》,2009年第1期,第43-53页。
①参见：王维国,《我国人口年龄结构变动对经济发展影响的定量分析》,载《市场与人口分析》,2004年第6期,第6页。
①参见：蔡昉,《人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长》,载《人口研究》,2004年第2期,第2-9页。
②参见：穆光宗,《人口机会窗口期≠经济高速增长期》,载《中国企业家》,2006年第7期,第100页。
③参见：孙自铎,《中国进入“刘易斯拐点”了吗——兼论经济增长人口红利说》,载《经济学家》,2008年第1期,第117-119页。
①参见：张宗坪、张士强,《经济增长中的“人口红利”探索》,载《中国人口资源环境》,2009年第5期,第88-92页。
①本文采用53%的标准。具体原因参见陈友华(2005)。
① Kelley， A.C. and Schmidt， R. M., Evolution of Recent Economic-demographic Modeling:a Synthesis, Journal of Population Economics,2005, Vol.18, No.2, pp.275-300.
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①Mason, Andrew and Ronald Lee, Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend, International Seminar on the Demographic Window and Healthy Aging:Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities, China Centre for Economic Research, Peking University, Beijing,2004.
②详细参见：王丰,Andrew Mason,《中国经济转型中的人口因素》,载《中国人口科学》,2006年第3期,第2-17页。
①参见：孙祁祥、朱俊生,《人口转变、老龄化及其对中国养老保险制度的挑战》,载《财贸经济》,2008年第4期,第71页。
①王德文等(2004)对1982-2000年的样本期研究得出,这一期间的总抚养负担下降了20.1%,推动增长速度上升2.3%,对同期人均GDP增长的贡献为26.8%,约1/4左右。详见：王德文、蔡防、张学辉,《人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素》,载《人口研究》,2004年第5期,第3页。在后文中,我们不仅从全国层面上对人口红利的经济效应进行分析,同时也从区域层面以及省域层面进行探讨,得到一致结论。
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①这一问题一直持续到2009年。从2010年1月1日起,农民工养老保险转移接续才获得政策支持。
②详细参见：http://news.163.com/08/0321/10/47I7TLLV0001124J.html。
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②我们曾对这一问题进行过详细讨论。详见：钟水映等,《中国人口资源环境与可持续发展》,济南：山东人民出版社,2010年。
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①参见：蔡昉,《中国人口与劳动问题报告No.5-人口转变与教育发展》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2004年,第297-299页。
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③参见：孙自铎,《中国进入“刘易斯拐点”了吗——兼论经济增长人口红利说》,载《经济学家》,2008年第1期,第117-119页。
①参见：张宗坪、张士强,《经济增长中的“人口红利”探索》,载《中国人口资源环境》,2009年第5期,第88-92页。
①本文采用53%的标准。具体原因参见陈友华(2005)。
① Kelley， A.C. and Schmidt， R. M., Evolution of Recent Economic-demographic Modeling:a Synthesis, Journal of Population Economics,2005, Vol.18, No.2, pp.275-300.
② Bloom, D.D. Canning, D. and Graham, B., Longevity and Life Cycle Savings, Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003, Vol.105, pp.319-338.
①Mason, Andrew and Ronald Lee, Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend, International Seminar on the Demographic Window and Healthy Aging:Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities, China Centre for Economic Research, Peking University, Beijing,2004.
②详细参见：王丰,Andrew Mason,《中国经济转型中的人口因素》,载《中国人口科学》,2006年第3期,第2-17页。
①参见：孙祁祥、朱俊生,《人口转变、老龄化及其对中国养老保险制度的挑战》,载《财贸经济》,2008年第4期,第71页。
①王德文等(2004)对1982-2000年的样本期研究得出,这一期间的总抚养负担下降了20.1%,推动增长速度上升2.3%,对同期人均GDP增长的贡献为26.8%,约1/4左右。详见：王德文、蔡防、张学辉,《人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素》,载《人口研究》,2004年第5期,第3页。在后文中,我们不仅从全国层面上对人口红利的经济效应进行分析,同时也从区域层面以及省域层面进行探讨,得到一致结论。
②参见：田雪原等,《21世纪中国人口发展战略研究》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007年,第377页。
③Kannan Navaneetham, Age Structural Transition and Economic Growth:Evidence from South and South East Asia, Asian Metacentre Research Paper Series No.7, Oct.,2002.
①参见：朱庆,《中国特殊国际收支结构原因探析》,载《世界经济研究》,2007年第5期,第36-39页。
① Nicholas R. Lardy, China in the World Economy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.,1994.
①这一问题一直持续到2009年。从2010年1月1日起,农民工养老保险转移接续才获得政策支持。
②详细参见：http://news.163.com/08/0321/10/47I7TLLV0001124J.html。
① Wang, F. and A.Mason, Demographic Dividend and Prospects for Economic Development in China, UN Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure, Population Division, Mexico, Aug.31～Sep.2,2005.
② IMF, The IMF on Policies Responding to Demographic Change, Population and Development Review,2004, Vol.30, No.4, pp.783-789.
① Andrew Mason, Population and the Asian Economic Miracle, Asia-Pacific Population & Policy,1997, Vol.43, pp.1-4.
① Tyers， R. and J.Golley, China's growth to 2030:the roles of demographic change and investment preimia， Working Papers No.461, in Economics and Econometrics， Australian National University, Canberra,2006.
②参见：郭震威、齐险峰,《“四二一”家庭微观仿真模型在生育政策研究中的应用》,载《人口研究》,2008年第3期,第5-15页。
③ Fleisher, Belton'and Dennis Yang, Labour laws and regulations in China, China Economic Review,2003, Vol.14, pp.426-433.
①Population Division of UN,World Health Statistics Quarterly,1987,40(1),pp.18～20.
①World Bank, China 2020:Old Age Security, The World Bank, Washington DC,1997.
②我们曾对这一问题进行过详细讨论。详见：钟水映等,《中国人口资源环境与可持续发展》,济南：山东人民出版社,2010年。
①参见：黑田俊夫,《亚洲人口年龄结构变化与社会经济发展的关系》,载《人口学刊》,1993年第4期,第3-9页。
②Zeng Yi and Vaupel, Impact of Urbanization and Delayed Childbearing on Population Growth and Aging in China， Population and Development Review,1989， Vol.15, pp.425-445.
① Stern Steven, Estimating Family Long-Term Care Decisions in the Presence of Endogenous Child Characteristics, Journal of Human Resources,1996, Vol.30, pp.551-580.
②参见：蒋承、赵晓军,《中国老年照料的机会成本研究》,载《管理世界》,2009年第10期,第80-87页。
① Luke， B.C.， Economics and Health Promotion， European Journal of Health Economics，2004, Vol.5, No.3, pp.236-242.
②参见：蔡昉,《中国人口与劳动问题报告No.5-人口转变与教育发展》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2004年,第286页。
①参见：蔡昉,《中国人口与劳动问题报告No.5-人口转变与教育发展》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2004年,第297-299页。
① Mason, A. and Lee, R., Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend, Genus,2006, Vol.57, No.2, pp.11-35.
② Ronald, Lee and Mason, Andrew, Population Aging, Wealth and Economic Growth: Demographic Dividends and Public Policy, WESS Background Paper,2007.
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