城市交通拥堵的社会经济影响分析
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摘要
20世纪80年代以来,交通拥堵已成为国内外大中型城市决策当局面临和制约城市发展的主要问题之一。一方面随着社会经济发展,居民对出行的便捷性和舒适性有了更高的要求,导致私家车数量快速增加,交通需求的压力持续增大,以北京市为例,全市城市机动车保有量在2012年8月已突破510万余辆,机动车驾驶员超过720万人；另一方面大中型城市拆迁费用高昂以及可利用土地面积不足,道路建设受到投资和城市用地的约束,导致新建和改扩建城市道路缓慢,交通供给和交通需求之间的矛盾越来越明显,交通拥堵现象也越来越成为阻碍社会经济发展的一个重要因素。
本文采用定性和定量方法重点分析了交通拥堵对人口、就业、GDP、能源消耗、土地利用、环境污染、居民出行成本、居民出行时间等经济社会因素的影响,综合自上而下的系统动力学模型和自下而上的元胞自动机模型,从宏观社会经济总量和微观居民出行的角度,利用系统动力学模型在情景模拟和宏观驱动因素反映上的优势与元胞自动机模型在微观交通流仿真方面优势,构建了城市交通与社会经济互动关系系统动力学模型和城市交通拥堵微观经济成本的元胞自动机模型。以期从这两方面入手,深入研究城市交通拥堵的社会经济影响,提供一种预先评价社会经济政策缓解交通拥堵有效性的方法,为缓解城市交通拥堵提供理论和政策支持。
本文的主要研究内容如下：
首先,定性分析城市交通的社会经济属性,从交通流、出行者、经济学角度给出城市交通拥堵的定义,介绍城市交通拥堵的主要原因、特征以及本文计算城市交通拥堵指数的方法,定义城市交通拥堵对社会经济的影响渠道和影响方式,进而分析城市交通拥堵对社会经济的直接影响和间接影响；
其次,从宏观角度对城市交通和社会经济(狭义)进行系统分析,划分城市交通与社会经济互动关系子系统,界定系统边界,提出了系统的相关假设,建立因果关系图和系统流图,以北京市城市交通数据为样本利用计量经济学方法设计参数和结构方程式,构建城市交通与社会经济互动关系系统动力学模型,并进行模型校验；
第三,以北京市为例对城市交通与社会经济互动关系系统动力学模型进行实证分析,从宏观角度分析城市交通拥堵对常住人口、就业岗位、土地面积、能源消费量、环境污染水平等变量的影响,同时分析了户籍政策、限号政策、限行政策、货车限行政策、基础建设投资政策对城市交通拥堵的影响；
最后,在城市道路交通和城市交通拥堵的微观经济学分析基础上,从微观角度通过设定元胞空间、元胞邻居、元胞规则和元胞状态构建基于元胞自动机的城市交通拥堵微观经济成本模型,模拟一个假定交通网的车流变化,分析交通拥堵的产生以及出行者的出行成本和出行时间,同时通过模型仿真结果分析可以预先评价社会经济政策对于缓解交通拥堵的作用是否有效,以确定哪种政策更为合适。
本文得出以下主要结论：(1)定性研究了城市交通拥堵对社会经济的影响渠道和影响方式。(2)建立了以研究城市交通拥堵对宏观社会经济影响为目的的系统动力学模型。(3)研究了不同的社会经济政策对于城市交通拥堵的影响。(4)研究了城市交通拥堵对于社会、经济、资源、环境相关要素的具体影响。(5)构建基于元胞自动机的交通拥堵微观经济成本分析模型,分析了居民出行成本和出行时间,提供了一种评价交通政策的手段。
本文希望通过从宏观和微观两个层面对城市交通拥堵的社会经济影响进行分析,明确城市交通拥堵对于社会经济影响的形式和结果,从而为降低城市交通拥堵对城市社会经济的负面影响提供理论和政策支持。
Since the1980s, traffic congestion has become one of the main problems that the government of large-medium cities both at home and abroad faced, which also restricts economic development. On the one hand, people demand convenience and comfort of travel of higher quality with the development of the economy and society, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of private cars, the pressures of traffic demand increases continuously. Taking Beijing as an example, at the end of Aug.2012, the city's motor vehicle population was more than510million, and the number of motor vehicle drivers was more than720million. On the other hand, road construction has a lots of limitation in investment and urban land due to the high demolition cost and the shortage of the available land area, resulting in the slow expansion of newly built and rebuilt of urban roads, the contradiction between transport supply and traffic demand become more and more obvious, traffic congestion is an important factor that obstructs the development of society and economy.
In this dissertation, qualitative and quantitative methods are used to focus on analysis of the impact of traffic congestion on the socio-economic factors, such as population, employment, GDP, energy consumption, land use, environmental pollution, travel costs and travel time of residents, etc. By the integration of System Dynamics model and Cellular Automata model, the interaction SD model of urban traffic congestion and socio-economic and the micro-economic cost CA model of urban traffic congestion are developed from a macro social economy total quantity and micro resident trip perspective, according to advantages of the scenario simulation and macro-driven factors reflect of system dynamics model and advantage of the microcosmic traffic flow simulation of cellular automata models, which from the point of view of the total macro socio-economic and micro-resident travel. Starting from these two areas, it in-depth study of the impact of traffic congestion on the socio-economic and provide theory and policy support to alleviate urban traffic congestion.
The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
First of all, it qualitatively analyzes the socio-economic attributes of urban traffic, defines the urban traffic congestion by traffic flow, travel, and economic. Then it introduces the main reason and characteristics for urban traffic congestion, and the method of computing urban traffic congestion index.it also defines influence channels and influence mode of the socio-economic impact of urban traffic congestion, and analyzes direct effect and indirect effect of the socio-economic impact of the urban traffic congestion;
Secondly, it makes system analysis of urban transport and socio-economic (narrow sense) from a macro perspective to divide subsystems of urban transport and socio-economic interaction. Then it defines the boundaries and hypothesis of the system, the causal diagram and system flow diagrams are established. It designs parameters and structural equation by the sample of Beijing urban traffic data using the econometrics model. At last, it builds a SD model of urban traffic and socio-economic interaction, and takes model validation;
Thirdly, taking Beijing as an example, it makes empirical analysis using the SD model of urban traffic and socio-economic interaction to study the social-economic impact of urban traffic congestion, such as the resident population, jobs, land area, energy consumption, environmental pollution levels and other variables from a macro perspective. At the same time, it analyzes the urban traffic congestion impact of the household registration policy, restricting the number of policies, the limit line of policy, lorry limit line of policy, infrastructure investment policy;
Finally, based on microeconomics analysis of the urban road transport and urban traffic congestion, it designs cellular space, cellular neighbor, cellular rule and cellular state to build a micro-economic cost of urban traffic congestion model based cellular automat. The model is used to simulate the traffic flow changes of an assumed transportation network, as well as travel costs and travel time. At the same time, it can prior evaluate effectiveness of the social and economic policies to alleviate traffic congestion through the model simulation results, and then it determines which kind of policy is more appropriate.
This dissertation aims to analyze socio-economic impact of urban traffic congestion from the macro and micro level, it clear the form and consequences of socio-economic impact of urban traffic congestion, So as to provide theory and policy support for reducing the negative impact of urban traffic congestion.
本文采用定性和定量方法重点分析了交通拥堵对人口、就业、GDP、能源消耗、土地利用、环境污染、居民出行成本、居民出行时间等经济社会因素的影响,综合自上而下的系统动力学模型和自下而上的元胞自动机模型,从宏观社会经济总量和微观居民出行的角度,利用系统动力学模型在情景模拟和宏观驱动因素反映上的优势与元胞自动机模型在微观交通流仿真方面优势,构建了城市交通与社会经济互动关系系统动力学模型和城市交通拥堵微观经济成本的元胞自动机模型。以期从这两方面入手,深入研究城市交通拥堵的社会经济影响,提供一种预先评价社会经济政策缓解交通拥堵有效性的方法,为缓解城市交通拥堵提供理论和政策支持。
本文的主要研究内容如下：
首先,定性分析城市交通的社会经济属性,从交通流、出行者、经济学角度给出城市交通拥堵的定义,介绍城市交通拥堵的主要原因、特征以及本文计算城市交通拥堵指数的方法,定义城市交通拥堵对社会经济的影响渠道和影响方式,进而分析城市交通拥堵对社会经济的直接影响和间接影响；
其次,从宏观角度对城市交通和社会经济(狭义)进行系统分析,划分城市交通与社会经济互动关系子系统,界定系统边界,提出了系统的相关假设,建立因果关系图和系统流图,以北京市城市交通数据为样本利用计量经济学方法设计参数和结构方程式,构建城市交通与社会经济互动关系系统动力学模型,并进行模型校验；
第三,以北京市为例对城市交通与社会经济互动关系系统动力学模型进行实证分析,从宏观角度分析城市交通拥堵对常住人口、就业岗位、土地面积、能源消费量、环境污染水平等变量的影响,同时分析了户籍政策、限号政策、限行政策、货车限行政策、基础建设投资政策对城市交通拥堵的影响；
最后,在城市道路交通和城市交通拥堵的微观经济学分析基础上,从微观角度通过设定元胞空间、元胞邻居、元胞规则和元胞状态构建基于元胞自动机的城市交通拥堵微观经济成本模型,模拟一个假定交通网的车流变化,分析交通拥堵的产生以及出行者的出行成本和出行时间,同时通过模型仿真结果分析可以预先评价社会经济政策对于缓解交通拥堵的作用是否有效,以确定哪种政策更为合适。
本文得出以下主要结论：(1)定性研究了城市交通拥堵对社会经济的影响渠道和影响方式。(2)建立了以研究城市交通拥堵对宏观社会经济影响为目的的系统动力学模型。(3)研究了不同的社会经济政策对于城市交通拥堵的影响。(4)研究了城市交通拥堵对于社会、经济、资源、环境相关要素的具体影响。(5)构建基于元胞自动机的交通拥堵微观经济成本分析模型,分析了居民出行成本和出行时间,提供了一种评价交通政策的手段。
本文希望通过从宏观和微观两个层面对城市交通拥堵的社会经济影响进行分析,明确城市交通拥堵对于社会经济影响的形式和结果,从而为降低城市交通拥堵对城市社会经济的负面影响提供理论和政策支持。
Since the1980s, traffic congestion has become one of the main problems that the government of large-medium cities both at home and abroad faced, which also restricts economic development. On the one hand, people demand convenience and comfort of travel of higher quality with the development of the economy and society, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of private cars, the pressures of traffic demand increases continuously. Taking Beijing as an example, at the end of Aug.2012, the city's motor vehicle population was more than510million, and the number of motor vehicle drivers was more than720million. On the other hand, road construction has a lots of limitation in investment and urban land due to the high demolition cost and the shortage of the available land area, resulting in the slow expansion of newly built and rebuilt of urban roads, the contradiction between transport supply and traffic demand become more and more obvious, traffic congestion is an important factor that obstructs the development of society and economy.
In this dissertation, qualitative and quantitative methods are used to focus on analysis of the impact of traffic congestion on the socio-economic factors, such as population, employment, GDP, energy consumption, land use, environmental pollution, travel costs and travel time of residents, etc. By the integration of System Dynamics model and Cellular Automata model, the interaction SD model of urban traffic congestion and socio-economic and the micro-economic cost CA model of urban traffic congestion are developed from a macro social economy total quantity and micro resident trip perspective, according to advantages of the scenario simulation and macro-driven factors reflect of system dynamics model and advantage of the microcosmic traffic flow simulation of cellular automata models, which from the point of view of the total macro socio-economic and micro-resident travel. Starting from these two areas, it in-depth study of the impact of traffic congestion on the socio-economic and provide theory and policy support to alleviate urban traffic congestion.
The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
First of all, it qualitatively analyzes the socio-economic attributes of urban traffic, defines the urban traffic congestion by traffic flow, travel, and economic. Then it introduces the main reason and characteristics for urban traffic congestion, and the method of computing urban traffic congestion index.it also defines influence channels and influence mode of the socio-economic impact of urban traffic congestion, and analyzes direct effect and indirect effect of the socio-economic impact of the urban traffic congestion;
Secondly, it makes system analysis of urban transport and socio-economic (narrow sense) from a macro perspective to divide subsystems of urban transport and socio-economic interaction. Then it defines the boundaries and hypothesis of the system, the causal diagram and system flow diagrams are established. It designs parameters and structural equation by the sample of Beijing urban traffic data using the econometrics model. At last, it builds a SD model of urban traffic and socio-economic interaction, and takes model validation;
Thirdly, taking Beijing as an example, it makes empirical analysis using the SD model of urban traffic and socio-economic interaction to study the social-economic impact of urban traffic congestion, such as the resident population, jobs, land area, energy consumption, environmental pollution levels and other variables from a macro perspective. At the same time, it analyzes the urban traffic congestion impact of the household registration policy, restricting the number of policies, the limit line of policy, lorry limit line of policy, infrastructure investment policy;
Finally, based on microeconomics analysis of the urban road transport and urban traffic congestion, it designs cellular space, cellular neighbor, cellular rule and cellular state to build a micro-economic cost of urban traffic congestion model based cellular automat. The model is used to simulate the traffic flow changes of an assumed transportation network, as well as travel costs and travel time. At the same time, it can prior evaluate effectiveness of the social and economic policies to alleviate traffic congestion through the model simulation results, and then it determines which kind of policy is more appropriate.
This dissertation aims to analyze socio-economic impact of urban traffic congestion from the macro and micro level, it clear the form and consequences of socio-economic impact of urban traffic congestion, So as to provide theory and policy support for reducing the negative impact of urban traffic congestion.
引文
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