外国证券投资与我国利用外资战略调整
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摘要
自20世纪80年代以来,随着现代信息技术的发展、经济全球化和金融自由化的深化,主要工业化国家相继取消了外汇管制并于20世纪90年代初实现了资本项目下可自由兑换。与此同时,许多发展中国家也加快了金融自由化和金融开放的步伐,放松了对外汇的管制并逐渐开放了本国的资本项目。这极大地方便了资本的流入和流出,开辟了资本跨境流动的新时代。一方面,资本跨境流动的速度和规模快速上升。另一方面,资本跨境流动的形式和结构也发生着巨大的变化。官方援助资本净额增长缓慢,私人资本增长迅速并在全球市场融资中扮演着越来越重要的角色。在私人资本的融资渠道上,借贷资本所占的比重急剧下降,以国际证券投资方式为代表的国际间接融资在规模上超过了国际直接投资,国际资本流动呈现出证券化的趋势。跨境私人资本流入尤其是国际证券投资的流入对东道国尤其是对发展中国家产生何种影响,结论存在着巨大的分歧。鼓励方强调私人资本的流入对东道国的经济增长和产业发展起着积极的作用;反对方则关注大量私人资本的流入导致跨国公司权利日益扩大、利润大量汇出、债务的增加、对当地自然生态环境的破坏以及对东道国金融稳定产生的负面影响。对不同类型跨境流动私人资本对东道国所产生的影响,结论也存在着很大的分歧。普遍的观点认为外国直接投资有利于东道国经济的发展,可以促进东道国资本存量的增加和优化,可以获得技术和管理水平的提升等;而外国证券投资被贴上了“危害”的标签,尤其是20世纪末发生的几次金融危机更是加深了这一认识。
我国在20世纪70年代末实行了改革开放政策,利用外资发展本国经济一直是我国改革开放的一项重要内容。我国利用外资的方式、形式和渠道主要有:对外借款、外国直接投资和外国证券投资。这三种类型的外资流入规模伴随着我国改革开放步伐的加快都在迅速扩大。随着我国改革开放的深入,资本需求将进一步增大,而流入的外国直接投资来源日趋减少,增幅逐渐下降,从国际金融组织获取优惠贷款的可能性降低,以及伴随着我国加入WTO过渡期的结束,我国将直接面临经济全球化和投资自由化的影响,资本市场的开放步伐也逐步加快。因此,我国利用外资的形式结构也必将进行调整,增加外国证券投资在我国利用外资中的比重将是一个必然的选择。因此在金融自由化和经济全球化的背景下,进一步深入认识理解不同类型跨境流动私人资本的特性尤其是外国证券投资的特性,有助于合理评价这些资本流动对东道国经济造成的影响,并制定相应的政策措施对其进行吸引或限制。
本文的创新之处为:1、本文以外国证券投资作为切入点,研究我国利用外资战略的调整,弥补了以往研究多集中在外国直接投资和对外借款,紧密结合了国际资本流动的新趋势,为我国更合理的利用外资提供理论和实证分析的依据。2、在已有的文献中,对外国证券投资的研究多集中于某一方面。本文综合研究了外国证券投资对我国经济增长、对我国国内资本形成、总资本形成、对我国金融稳定的影响,及其与外国直接投资间的相互关系以及影响其流入我国的因素。3、在研究我国外国证券投资的文献中,多采用规范分析和定性分析的研究方法。本文在其进行研究时,不仅采用了规范分析和定性分析的方法,而且通过广泛的收集数据,对外国证券投资采用了定量分析和实证分析方法进行研究。
全文共有八章,大致分为五个部分。
第一部分共两章,包括第一章和第二章,是研究的概述性部分。主要叙述了本论文选题的目的意义、相关的概念和统计口径,研究的方法、研究的框架,并对跨国证券投资发展的特性在统计的基础上作描述性分析。
第二部分共两章,包括第三章和第四章。在这一部分里主要对外国证券投资进入我国后,对我国经济稳定增长及金融稳定产生的影响做出分析。第三章研究外国证券投资流入对我国经济的影响。在对经济增长可能产生影响的理论分析基础上,建立计量分析模型,并利用中国、美国和印度的数据进行实证分析,通过对比得出结论。第四章研究外国证券投资流入对我国金融稳定产生的影响。在这一章里,首先对金融稳定的定义加以阐述,在此基础上,选取了四个金融稳定指标银行体系脆弱性、金融市场波动性、汇率波动性、政府债务收入支出,采用一定的计量方法,对外国证券投资对这四个指标的影响进行了研究。
第三部分共两章,包括第五章和第六章。在这一部分里主要对影响外国证券投资流入的影响因素及外国证券投资与外国直接投资间的关系进行研究。第五章是对影响跨国证券投资资本流动的因素加以分析。首先对可能影响跨国证券投资资本流动的因素作理论层面的分析,然后在理论分析的基础上,利用IMF联合证券投资调查系统(CPIS)的数据,构建一个面板数据,从受资国为中国的角度,对影响跨国证券投资流入中国的因素作实证分析。第六章对外国证券投资和外国直接投资之间的关系进行了分析。外国证券投资和外国直接投资是国际资本流动的两种重要形式,它们之间是替代、互补还是不相关的关系,在本章中通过实证分析的方法加以研究。
第四部分共一章,包括第七章。这一部分是本文的政策建议部分,该部分在前面三部分研究的基础上,并结合世界具有代表性国家利用外资的经验,提出我国合理利用外资促进我国经济增长的政策建议。
第五部分共一章,包括第八章。这一部分主要是对本文研究的总结和对未来研究的展望。
在这五部分内容里,其中第二部分和第三部分是本文的研究重点和主要内容。
Since the 1980s, with the rapid advance of modern information technology, economic globalization and the deepening of financial liberalization, the major industrialized countries have cancelled the foreign exchange control one after another and in the early-1990s have realized to exchange freely under the capital project. Meanwhile, many developing countries also sped up the pace of financial liberalization and financial openness, relaxed the foreign exchange controls and opened their countries capital project gradually, which causes that the capital inflows and flows out very conveniently and opens up a new era of cross-border capital flows. On the one hand, the speed and the scale of the cross-border capital flows rise fast. On the other hand, the forms and the structure of the cross-border capital flow are also having the huge change. The growth of net official assistance capital is slowing; the net private capital grows rapidly and is playing more and more important role in global market financing. On private capital financing channel, the proportion of foreign loan is falling sharply, international portfolio investment has surpassed the international direct investment in the scale, the international capital flows shows the trend of securitization. The conclusion has the huge difference about the impact of cross-border private capital inflow, especially to developing countries. Fosterers emphasize the inflow of private capital plays an active role in the host country's economic growth and industrial development; the negative side pays more attentions to the inflow of the massive private capital to cause the Multinational corporation right to expand, the profit to remit, the debt to increase massively, to the locality natural ecological environment destruction as well as the negative influence which produces to the host country's financial stability. To the influence of the different types of cross-border flows of private capital which produces to the host country, the conclusion also has the very big difference. The universal viewpoint thought that the FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is advantageous to the host country's economy development; it can improve the level of technology and management, etc. But FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investment) has been pasted on "the harm" label.
Our country has implemented the reform and openning policy in the late-1970s, developing our country economy by using the foreign capital has been an important content of our country reform and openning policy. Methods, forms and channels of utilizing foreign investment in China are: Foreign loan, FDI and FOI. Associated with the accelerated pace of reform and opening in China, the scales of three types of foreign capital inflow are rapidly expanding. With the deepening of reform and opening, capital requirement will be further increased, the inflow of foreign direct investment reduces day by day, and the possibility which gains the favorable loans from international financial organizations reduces, our country will be directly facing the impact of the economic globalization and investment liberalization, the pace of capital market opening also gradually speeds up. Therefore, the structure of using foreign capital will be adjusted in our country; it will be an inevitable choice to increase the proportion of the foreign portfolio investment in our country. So against the backdrop of financial liberalization and economic globalization, it will contribute to a reasonable evaluation the impact of the capital flows on the economic of the host country to understand further the nature of private capital flows, especially the characteristics of foreign portfolio investment, and formulate corresponding policies and measures to attract or restrict them.
The innovations of this paper are: 1. we research foreign investment strategy of China based on foreign portfolio investment, which makes up for the adjustment of previous research focusing on foreign direct investment and foreign loans. Meanwhile we combine with the new trend of international capital flows, and provide the evidences of theoretical and empirical analysis for more reasonable utilization of foreign capital in our country. 2. This paper sythetizedly study foreign portfolio investment by systematic methods. The existing literatures about foreign portfolio investment mainly research one aspect of foreign portfolio investment. This paper studies the influences of foreign portfolio investment on China's economic growth, on our domestic capital formation, total capital of China's financial stability, and the relationship between FPI and FDI, the terminants of FPI. 3. On the basis of broad data collection, this paper analyzed foreign portfolio investment by using the quantitative a nalysis and empirical analysis method.
The full text has eight chapters, divided into five parts approximately.
The first part including first chapter and the second chapter is the research outline part. It mainly includes the goal and significance of this paper, the related concept, the statistical caliber, the research method and the research framework. And it makes the descriptive analysis about the transnational securities investment development's characteristic in the statistical foundation.
The second part includes the third chapter and the fourth chapter. This part mainly analyse the influence of foreign portfolio investment on China's economy and finance stability. The third chapter studies the influence of the foreign portoflio investment on the economic growth of China. According to the theoretical analysis, we establish the measurement anatomic model, use China's, America's and India's data carrying on the empirical analysis and draw the conclusion through the contrast. The fourth chapter studies the inflow of foreign portfolio investment on China's financial security. In this chapter, on the basis of the definition of financial security, we study the impact of foreign portfolio investment on bank system's fragility, foreign exchange's volatility, and finance market's volatility.
The third part includes the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter. We mainly study the influencing factors of the foreign portfolio investment and the relationship between the foreign portfolio investment and the foreign direct investment in this part. The fifth chapter analyzes the influencing factors of the foreign portfolio investment. First, we make a theoretical level of analysis about the possible influencing factors. Then according to the theoretical analysis, we construct a panel data by using the data of Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) to analyze the influencing factors of the foreign portfolio investment flowing in China. The sixth chapter researches the relationship between the foreign portfolio investment and foreign direct investment. The foreign portfolio investment and the foreign direct investment are the two important forms of international capital flow, there are the substitution, the supplementary and non-correlated relations between them. We study the realations between them through empirical analysis's method.
The fourth part is formed by one chapter, including the seventh chapter. This part is the policy suggestion part in this paper. Based on the analysis of the front three parts's research and the experience of the representative national using foreign capital, we propose the policy proposals of the rational use of foreign capital promoting China's economic growth.
The fifth part is formed by one chapter, including the eighth chapter. This part is mainly a summary of this paper and the prospects for future research.
In the contents of these five parts, the second part and the third part are the focus of this paper.
我国在20世纪70年代末实行了改革开放政策,利用外资发展本国经济一直是我国改革开放的一项重要内容。我国利用外资的方式、形式和渠道主要有:对外借款、外国直接投资和外国证券投资。这三种类型的外资流入规模伴随着我国改革开放步伐的加快都在迅速扩大。随着我国改革开放的深入,资本需求将进一步增大,而流入的外国直接投资来源日趋减少,增幅逐渐下降,从国际金融组织获取优惠贷款的可能性降低,以及伴随着我国加入WTO过渡期的结束,我国将直接面临经济全球化和投资自由化的影响,资本市场的开放步伐也逐步加快。因此,我国利用外资的形式结构也必将进行调整,增加外国证券投资在我国利用外资中的比重将是一个必然的选择。因此在金融自由化和经济全球化的背景下,进一步深入认识理解不同类型跨境流动私人资本的特性尤其是外国证券投资的特性,有助于合理评价这些资本流动对东道国经济造成的影响,并制定相应的政策措施对其进行吸引或限制。
本文的创新之处为:1、本文以外国证券投资作为切入点,研究我国利用外资战略的调整,弥补了以往研究多集中在外国直接投资和对外借款,紧密结合了国际资本流动的新趋势,为我国更合理的利用外资提供理论和实证分析的依据。2、在已有的文献中,对外国证券投资的研究多集中于某一方面。本文综合研究了外国证券投资对我国经济增长、对我国国内资本形成、总资本形成、对我国金融稳定的影响,及其与外国直接投资间的相互关系以及影响其流入我国的因素。3、在研究我国外国证券投资的文献中,多采用规范分析和定性分析的研究方法。本文在其进行研究时,不仅采用了规范分析和定性分析的方法,而且通过广泛的收集数据,对外国证券投资采用了定量分析和实证分析方法进行研究。
全文共有八章,大致分为五个部分。
第一部分共两章,包括第一章和第二章,是研究的概述性部分。主要叙述了本论文选题的目的意义、相关的概念和统计口径,研究的方法、研究的框架,并对跨国证券投资发展的特性在统计的基础上作描述性分析。
第二部分共两章,包括第三章和第四章。在这一部分里主要对外国证券投资进入我国后,对我国经济稳定增长及金融稳定产生的影响做出分析。第三章研究外国证券投资流入对我国经济的影响。在对经济增长可能产生影响的理论分析基础上,建立计量分析模型,并利用中国、美国和印度的数据进行实证分析,通过对比得出结论。第四章研究外国证券投资流入对我国金融稳定产生的影响。在这一章里,首先对金融稳定的定义加以阐述,在此基础上,选取了四个金融稳定指标银行体系脆弱性、金融市场波动性、汇率波动性、政府债务收入支出,采用一定的计量方法,对外国证券投资对这四个指标的影响进行了研究。
第三部分共两章,包括第五章和第六章。在这一部分里主要对影响外国证券投资流入的影响因素及外国证券投资与外国直接投资间的关系进行研究。第五章是对影响跨国证券投资资本流动的因素加以分析。首先对可能影响跨国证券投资资本流动的因素作理论层面的分析,然后在理论分析的基础上,利用IMF联合证券投资调查系统(CPIS)的数据,构建一个面板数据,从受资国为中国的角度,对影响跨国证券投资流入中国的因素作实证分析。第六章对外国证券投资和外国直接投资之间的关系进行了分析。外国证券投资和外国直接投资是国际资本流动的两种重要形式,它们之间是替代、互补还是不相关的关系,在本章中通过实证分析的方法加以研究。
第四部分共一章,包括第七章。这一部分是本文的政策建议部分,该部分在前面三部分研究的基础上,并结合世界具有代表性国家利用外资的经验,提出我国合理利用外资促进我国经济增长的政策建议。
第五部分共一章,包括第八章。这一部分主要是对本文研究的总结和对未来研究的展望。
在这五部分内容里,其中第二部分和第三部分是本文的研究重点和主要内容。
Since the 1980s, with the rapid advance of modern information technology, economic globalization and the deepening of financial liberalization, the major industrialized countries have cancelled the foreign exchange control one after another and in the early-1990s have realized to exchange freely under the capital project. Meanwhile, many developing countries also sped up the pace of financial liberalization and financial openness, relaxed the foreign exchange controls and opened their countries capital project gradually, which causes that the capital inflows and flows out very conveniently and opens up a new era of cross-border capital flows. On the one hand, the speed and the scale of the cross-border capital flows rise fast. On the other hand, the forms and the structure of the cross-border capital flow are also having the huge change. The growth of net official assistance capital is slowing; the net private capital grows rapidly and is playing more and more important role in global market financing. On private capital financing channel, the proportion of foreign loan is falling sharply, international portfolio investment has surpassed the international direct investment in the scale, the international capital flows shows the trend of securitization. The conclusion has the huge difference about the impact of cross-border private capital inflow, especially to developing countries. Fosterers emphasize the inflow of private capital plays an active role in the host country's economic growth and industrial development; the negative side pays more attentions to the inflow of the massive private capital to cause the Multinational corporation right to expand, the profit to remit, the debt to increase massively, to the locality natural ecological environment destruction as well as the negative influence which produces to the host country's financial stability. To the influence of the different types of cross-border flows of private capital which produces to the host country, the conclusion also has the very big difference. The universal viewpoint thought that the FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is advantageous to the host country's economy development; it can improve the level of technology and management, etc. But FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investment) has been pasted on "the harm" label.
Our country has implemented the reform and openning policy in the late-1970s, developing our country economy by using the foreign capital has been an important content of our country reform and openning policy. Methods, forms and channels of utilizing foreign investment in China are: Foreign loan, FDI and FOI. Associated with the accelerated pace of reform and opening in China, the scales of three types of foreign capital inflow are rapidly expanding. With the deepening of reform and opening, capital requirement will be further increased, the inflow of foreign direct investment reduces day by day, and the possibility which gains the favorable loans from international financial organizations reduces, our country will be directly facing the impact of the economic globalization and investment liberalization, the pace of capital market opening also gradually speeds up. Therefore, the structure of using foreign capital will be adjusted in our country; it will be an inevitable choice to increase the proportion of the foreign portfolio investment in our country. So against the backdrop of financial liberalization and economic globalization, it will contribute to a reasonable evaluation the impact of the capital flows on the economic of the host country to understand further the nature of private capital flows, especially the characteristics of foreign portfolio investment, and formulate corresponding policies and measures to attract or restrict them.
The innovations of this paper are: 1. we research foreign investment strategy of China based on foreign portfolio investment, which makes up for the adjustment of previous research focusing on foreign direct investment and foreign loans. Meanwhile we combine with the new trend of international capital flows, and provide the evidences of theoretical and empirical analysis for more reasonable utilization of foreign capital in our country. 2. This paper sythetizedly study foreign portfolio investment by systematic methods. The existing literatures about foreign portfolio investment mainly research one aspect of foreign portfolio investment. This paper studies the influences of foreign portfolio investment on China's economic growth, on our domestic capital formation, total capital of China's financial stability, and the relationship between FPI and FDI, the terminants of FPI. 3. On the basis of broad data collection, this paper analyzed foreign portfolio investment by using the quantitative a nalysis and empirical analysis method.
The full text has eight chapters, divided into five parts approximately.
The first part including first chapter and the second chapter is the research outline part. It mainly includes the goal and significance of this paper, the related concept, the statistical caliber, the research method and the research framework. And it makes the descriptive analysis about the transnational securities investment development's characteristic in the statistical foundation.
The second part includes the third chapter and the fourth chapter. This part mainly analyse the influence of foreign portfolio investment on China's economy and finance stability. The third chapter studies the influence of the foreign portoflio investment on the economic growth of China. According to the theoretical analysis, we establish the measurement anatomic model, use China's, America's and India's data carrying on the empirical analysis and draw the conclusion through the contrast. The fourth chapter studies the inflow of foreign portfolio investment on China's financial security. In this chapter, on the basis of the definition of financial security, we study the impact of foreign portfolio investment on bank system's fragility, foreign exchange's volatility, and finance market's volatility.
The third part includes the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter. We mainly study the influencing factors of the foreign portfolio investment and the relationship between the foreign portfolio investment and the foreign direct investment in this part. The fifth chapter analyzes the influencing factors of the foreign portfolio investment. First, we make a theoretical level of analysis about the possible influencing factors. Then according to the theoretical analysis, we construct a panel data by using the data of Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) to analyze the influencing factors of the foreign portfolio investment flowing in China. The sixth chapter researches the relationship between the foreign portfolio investment and foreign direct investment. The foreign portfolio investment and the foreign direct investment are the two important forms of international capital flow, there are the substitution, the supplementary and non-correlated relations between them. We study the realations between them through empirical analysis's method.
The fourth part is formed by one chapter, including the seventh chapter. This part is the policy suggestion part in this paper. Based on the analysis of the front three parts's research and the experience of the representative national using foreign capital, we propose the policy proposals of the rational use of foreign capital promoting China's economic growth.
The fifth part is formed by one chapter, including the eighth chapter. This part is mainly a summary of this paper and the prospects for future research.
In the contents of these five parts, the second part and the third part are the focus of this paper.
引文
[1]葛顺奇,“跨国公司国际直接投资:回顾与展望”,世界经济(2003,3)p56
[2]在1991年以前,我国引进的外国证券投资仅仅是对外发行债券。
[3]1990年11月26日,上海证券交易所成立,同年12月19日开始正式营业;1990年12月1日,深圳证券交易所试营业;1992年B股开始发行;1993年分别发行了H股和N股。
[1]胡曙光,刘毅.国际投资.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005,P204
[1]崔新建.中国利用外资三十年.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2008年12月,P100.
[2]B股,即B种股票,是我国企业在“境外发行,国内上市”的以人民币标明面值,专供港澳台等境外投资者用外汇进行买卖的记名式人民币特种股票。
[1]康承东,利用外资与经济增长--基于FDI和FPI视角的研究,2006,P55.
[1]J.Benson Durham,QEH Working Paper No.52,2000,PP:9-10
[2]如果两个系数同时为正,或同时为负,将产生模糊真实效应。
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