管理者过度自信与公司融资行为研究
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摘要
随着公司行为财务的兴起,管理者非理性尤其是过度自信的认知偏差与公司财务决策关系的研究逐渐进入学者的视野而成为一个新的研究热点。而针对中国制度背景下,管理者过度自信与公司融资行为的研究较为缺乏。因此,本文试图研究以下问题:中国上市公司管理者是否存在过度自信的认知偏差?管理者的过度自信是否以及如何影响公司的融资行为?进而对公司价值产生怎样的影响?
本文首先追溯了管理者过度自信的心理学根源,阐明了管理者过度自信与公司融资的内在联系;其次,基于中国上市公司的融资环境,剖析了上市公司融资行为特征;第三,在实证研究方面,构建管理者过度自信的度量指标,遵循“由面到点、层层递进”的构想,研究过度自信管理者如何选择公司融资策略,进而考察管理者过度自信对公司债务融资策略和信用融资的影响。本文研究结果的主要贡献有以下几点:
1.鉴于中国的制度背景,利用上市公司盈余预告构建了度量管理者过度自信的指标。相比较而言,该指标的构建比较全面、客观,并为相关研究提供了可借鉴的分析工具。
2.关于管理者过度自信对公司融资策略选择的影响,目前国内还没有相应的实证检验。本文研究发现过度自信管理者选择的融资策略不仅遵循融资优序理论,而且更倾向于内源融资,通过支付更少股利的方式以储备更多的内部资金。该研究结论也证实了管理者过度自信假说可用来解释融资优序理论。
3.针对目前研究认为公司债务政策趋于保守是普遍现象的观点,本文从管理者过度自信视角,利用税盾拐点考察公司债务政策。研究发现过度自信管理者实施的债务政策呈现激进倾向;与已有文献不同的是,本文更关注公司绩效,其研究结果表明过度自信管理者奉行的债务激进政策加大了公司绩效下降的趋势。
4.过度自信管理者运用信用融资效应如何?学者们还未对此进行实证研究。本文研究发现过度自信管理者偏好信用融资并不显著,但证实了随着管理者过度自信程度的增强,信用融资比例呈现上升趋势;与一般管理者相比,过度自信管理者运用信用融资发挥经营负债杠杆的创值效应和成长效应明显降低。
With the emerging of corporate behavioral finance, the relationship between managers' irrational behavior, especially cognitive bias of overconfidence, and corporate financial decision has becoming a new hot issue. Based on the background of Chinese institution, there are few of studies on the relationship between managers' overconfidence and corporate financing behavior. Therefore, this paper will try to study the following questions: whether managers' cognitive bias of overconfidence exists in Chinese listed companies? How does managers' overconfidence influence corporate financing behavior? Moreover, how does it influence corporate value?
Firstly, this paper traces psychology origin of managers' overconfidence, and expounds the inherent relationship between managers' overconfidence and corporate financing. Secondly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of financing behavior of listed companies according to the financing environment of our country. Thirdly, after the indicator is designed to measure managers' overconfidence, this paper researches how overconfident managers choose corporate financing strategy by following the approach of layer-upon-layer, and examines the influences of managers' overconfidence on corporate debt financing strategy and credit financing. The main contributions of this paper are reflected as follows:
1. The paper designs the indicator to measure managers' overconfidence based on the listed company earnings forecast system of China. This indicator is more overall and objective and offers analytical tools for related research.
2. There are few of empirical studies about the influence of managers' overconfidence on the choice of corporate financing strategies in China. This study shows that not only overconfident managers follow the pecking-order financing theory, but also they are inclined to internal financing and reserve more internal capital through paying less dividend. This conclusion also confirms that managers' overconfidence hypotheses can explain the pecking-order financing theory again.
3. From the perspective of managers' overconfidence, the paper uses tax shield kink to examine corporate debt policy according to the popular trend that corporate debt conservatism is common phenomenon. The study shows that debt policy which overconfident managers pursue appears radical tendency. Different from the current literature, this paper is more concerned about corporate performance, and shows that the radical debt policy with overconfident managers will cause the decrease trend of corporate performance.
4. How do overconfident managers utilize the effect of credit financing? The scholars have not conducted empirical research on this aspect yet. This study finds that overconfident managers do not prefer credit financing, but it shows that the proportion of credit financing appears a growth trend with the increasing of managers' overconfidence. Comparing overconfident managers' corporation with non-overconfident managers' corporation, this study finds that value-creation effect and growth effect of operating debt leverage are significantly lower in the overconfident managers' corporation.
本文首先追溯了管理者过度自信的心理学根源,阐明了管理者过度自信与公司融资的内在联系;其次,基于中国上市公司的融资环境,剖析了上市公司融资行为特征;第三,在实证研究方面,构建管理者过度自信的度量指标,遵循“由面到点、层层递进”的构想,研究过度自信管理者如何选择公司融资策略,进而考察管理者过度自信对公司债务融资策略和信用融资的影响。本文研究结果的主要贡献有以下几点:
1.鉴于中国的制度背景,利用上市公司盈余预告构建了度量管理者过度自信的指标。相比较而言,该指标的构建比较全面、客观,并为相关研究提供了可借鉴的分析工具。
2.关于管理者过度自信对公司融资策略选择的影响,目前国内还没有相应的实证检验。本文研究发现过度自信管理者选择的融资策略不仅遵循融资优序理论,而且更倾向于内源融资,通过支付更少股利的方式以储备更多的内部资金。该研究结论也证实了管理者过度自信假说可用来解释融资优序理论。
3.针对目前研究认为公司债务政策趋于保守是普遍现象的观点,本文从管理者过度自信视角,利用税盾拐点考察公司债务政策。研究发现过度自信管理者实施的债务政策呈现激进倾向;与已有文献不同的是,本文更关注公司绩效,其研究结果表明过度自信管理者奉行的债务激进政策加大了公司绩效下降的趋势。
4.过度自信管理者运用信用融资效应如何?学者们还未对此进行实证研究。本文研究发现过度自信管理者偏好信用融资并不显著,但证实了随着管理者过度自信程度的增强,信用融资比例呈现上升趋势;与一般管理者相比,过度自信管理者运用信用融资发挥经营负债杠杆的创值效应和成长效应明显降低。
With the emerging of corporate behavioral finance, the relationship between managers' irrational behavior, especially cognitive bias of overconfidence, and corporate financial decision has becoming a new hot issue. Based on the background of Chinese institution, there are few of studies on the relationship between managers' overconfidence and corporate financing behavior. Therefore, this paper will try to study the following questions: whether managers' cognitive bias of overconfidence exists in Chinese listed companies? How does managers' overconfidence influence corporate financing behavior? Moreover, how does it influence corporate value?
Firstly, this paper traces psychology origin of managers' overconfidence, and expounds the inherent relationship between managers' overconfidence and corporate financing. Secondly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of financing behavior of listed companies according to the financing environment of our country. Thirdly, after the indicator is designed to measure managers' overconfidence, this paper researches how overconfident managers choose corporate financing strategy by following the approach of layer-upon-layer, and examines the influences of managers' overconfidence on corporate debt financing strategy and credit financing. The main contributions of this paper are reflected as follows:
1. The paper designs the indicator to measure managers' overconfidence based on the listed company earnings forecast system of China. This indicator is more overall and objective and offers analytical tools for related research.
2. There are few of empirical studies about the influence of managers' overconfidence on the choice of corporate financing strategies in China. This study shows that not only overconfident managers follow the pecking-order financing theory, but also they are inclined to internal financing and reserve more internal capital through paying less dividend. This conclusion also confirms that managers' overconfidence hypotheses can explain the pecking-order financing theory again.
3. From the perspective of managers' overconfidence, the paper uses tax shield kink to examine corporate debt policy according to the popular trend that corporate debt conservatism is common phenomenon. The study shows that debt policy which overconfident managers pursue appears radical tendency. Different from the current literature, this paper is more concerned about corporate performance, and shows that the radical debt policy with overconfident managers will cause the decrease trend of corporate performance.
4. How do overconfident managers utilize the effect of credit financing? The scholars have not conducted empirical research on this aspect yet. This study finds that overconfident managers do not prefer credit financing, but it shows that the proportion of credit financing appears a growth trend with the increasing of managers' overconfidence. Comparing overconfident managers' corporation with non-overconfident managers' corporation, this study finds that value-creation effect and growth effect of operating debt leverage are significantly lower in the overconfident managers' corporation.
引文
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