我国货币政策区域效应的存在性和影响因素研究
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摘要
货币政策研究中最关键和最核心的问题就是有关货币政策传导的问题。货币政策传导的研究主要集中在货币政策是否中性、货币政策传导机制以及近年来出现的也是本文研究主题—有关货币政策区域效应的研究,Scott(1955)是最早研究货币政策区域效应的学者。货币政策统一性的基础就是货币政策实施是总量调控而非微量调控。实施总量调控,如果要达到预定的调控目标有一个非常重要的前提条件,就是实施货币政策区域的经济金融的同一性。1999年诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·蒙代尔(Robert Mundell)于1961年提出的“最优货币区”是支持货币政策一体化的理论基础。本文的研究主题是探讨和实证检验产生我国货币政策区域效应的最根本原因—微观主体差异。不管是什么货币政策传导机制,货币政策的传导效果主要是依赖于微观主体的行为。
随着我国改革开放和市场化进程的进一步深入,我国经济的区域特征越来越明显,无论是从金融体系角度、产业结构角度,还是综合角度来看,我国的区域经济体可划分为东部沿海地区、中部地区和西部地区。针对本文的研究主题,本文对2001年至2005年各省级地区市场化指数的平均值进行聚类分析,把我国三十一个省级地区分为经济发达地区、次发达地区和不发达地区。通过比较三个地区的经济金融状况,可以看出我国区域经济体的差异非常大。在这一背景下我国实施统一货币政策会不会产生区域效应呢?如果产生区域效应,其根本影响因素又有哪些呢?针对这些问题,本文的研究结论主要有:
(1)在基于最优货币区理论和借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,本文利用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)以及脉冲响应函数,采用1984年至2006年的年度样本数据,通过对我国发达地区、次发达地区和不发达地区对货币政策响应的实证研究,表明我国货币政策确实存在明显的区域效应。
(2)本文分析了我国区域金融体系差异的形成和现状以及产生的原因,从理论的角度研究了金融体系的发展水平与效率与经济增长的关系。在研究金融体系差异对货币政策区域效应的影响时,本文把经济增长作为货币政策的目标。通过建立面板数据回归模型实证检验了金融体系的发展水平和效率有利于促进经济增长、不同地区金融体系对经济增长的影响程度不一样,由此便产生货币政策区域效应,从而表明我国区域金融体系差异是我国货币政策区域效应产生的重要因素。
(3)根据预防性储蓄理论本文推导出我国居民消费模型,通过实证研究得出各省市自治区居民消费模型。影响居民消费的因素在模型中可以体现出来,本文通过比较各省市自治区的影响居民消费的因素的差异性来分析我国居民消费储蓄行为的差异性存在。居民是一国经济活动的重要微观主体,它的行为,特别是消费和储蓄选择行为对货币政策具有重要的影响。居民的消费形成最终需求,居民的储蓄形成重要的投资资金来源,居民的储蓄和消费行为是影响货币政策行为的基本因素之一。
(4)本文从理论上论述企业结构对货币政策传导的影响,从而推导出不同地区的不同企业结构对货币政策的响应的不一致性,最终导致货币政策的区域效应。通过实证检验,本文验证了区域企业结构差异是我国货币政策区域效应形成的一个重要因素。
货币政策目标中包含着区域经济协调发展的成份,中国作为一个处于经济转轨时期的发展中大国,只有区域经济协调发展,才能实现全国经济的平稳发展,避免经济的大起大落,实现社会主义市场经济体制生产目的,货币政策应该为这一目标服务。根据本文研究结论,本文提出相关的政策建议,提出要减缓货币政策区域效应首先要畅通货币政策传导机制,然后调整传导过程中各区域微观主体(金融机构、居民和企业)的差异性,最后可以在一定程度上实施差别化的区域货币政策,三管齐下共同治理货币政策区域效应。
The essential and core question in the research of monetary policy is about monetary policy transmission. The research of monetary policy transmission mainly concentrates on whether is monetary policy neutral, monetary policy transmission mechanism and the regional effects of monetary policy which appeared in recent years and is also main subject of this article. Scott (1955) is the scholar who earliest studied the regional effects of monetary policy. The basic of the monetary policy uniformity is that monetary policy implementation is a total regulation and not micro regulation, if we want to achieve the predetermined regulative goal, there is a very important prerequisite in the process of total regulation which is economical and financial identity in the regions of monetary policy implementation. Optimum Currency Areas which proposed by Robert ? Mundell, Nobel economic prize winner in 1999, is the basic theory supporting monetary integration. The subject of this article is to discuss and empirically examine the most fundamental reasons of the regional effects of Chinese monetary policy-the microscopic subject diversity. The transmission effects of monetary policy mainly depend on the behavior of the microscopic subject, regardless of monetary policy transmission mechanism.
With the deepening of Chinese reform and opening-up、marketability advancement, regional characteristics of Chinese economy become more and more obvious. Chinese regional economies can be divided into eastern coastal areas, central region and western regions, whether from the perspective of financial system, industrial structure or general perspective. In view of the research subject, this article made a cluster analysis of marketability mean value index of various provincial levels areas from the year 2001 to 2005, and split Chinese 31 provincial level areas into economically developed regions, sub-developed regions and under-developed regions. We can see that China's regional economies' differences are very obvious by comparing the economic and financial situation of the three regions. In this background, whether china will have a regional effect of monetary policy in the process of the implementation of a unified monetary policy? What are the basic influencing factors? In the view of these questions, the main conclusions of this article are following:
(1)Based on the theory of Optimum Currency Areas and the domestic and foreign research results, this article shows that Chinas' monetary policy has indeed an obvious regional effect, by using SVAR model and impulse response function, adopting the annual sample data from 1984 to 2006, and by empirical research on response to monetary policy of developed areas, sub-developed areas and underdeveloped areas.
(2) This paper analyzes the formation and present situation as well as the causes of Chinas' regional differences of financial system, and has studied the relationship between financial system's level of development and the efficiency with the economic growth. This article takes the economic growth as the goal of monetary policy in the research of the influence of financial system difference on the regional effect of monetary policy. This paper empirically testes that financial system's level of development and the efficiency are advantageous to the promotion economic growth and that different regional financial system is dissimilar to economic growth's influence by establishing panel data regression model, so the regional effect of monetary policy bring about, which shows that china's regional financial system diversity is an important factor of the regional effect of monetary policy.
(3) According to the theory of precautionary savings, this article inferred Chinese resident consuming model of various provinces and autonomous regions' residents consuming mode by empirical research. The factors that influent people's consumption can be reflected in the model, the paper analyzes the diversity existence of Chinas' consuming and savings behaviors by comparing the difference of factors that influent the various provinces and autonomous household consumption. Residents are important micro activities in a country, whose behaviors, especially the consuming-saving behaviors, have an important influence on monetary policy. Resident's consumption forms the final demand, resident's deposit forms the important origin of capital funds, resident's deposit and the consuming behavior is one of the fundamental factors that affect the monetary policy.
(4)This article discusses theoretically the influence of enterprise's structure on monetary policy transmission and infers that different enterprise's structure in different regions have inconsistent response to the monetary policy and then causes the regional effect of monetary policy. By empirical examine, this paper validates that regional diversity of enterprise's structure is an essential factor in the formation of the regional effects of Chinese monetary policy.
The objectives of monetary policy contain the composition of coordinated development of regional economy, China, as a large developing country in a period of economic transition, in order to achieve a smooth development of the national economy and avoid big ups and downs in the economy, and to realize the socialist market economic system of production purpose, only depend on the coordinated development of regional economy, monetary policy should serve for this goal. According to the conclusion, this article puts forward the related policy proposal, proposes that in order to slow down the regional effects of monetary policy, we should firstly smooth monetary policy transmission mechanism, then adjust the diversity of regional microscopic subjects (financial institutions, residents and enterprises) in the process of transmission, at last to a certain extent implements differentiated regional monetary policy, three-pronged common governance of regional effects of monetary policy.
随着我国改革开放和市场化进程的进一步深入,我国经济的区域特征越来越明显,无论是从金融体系角度、产业结构角度,还是综合角度来看,我国的区域经济体可划分为东部沿海地区、中部地区和西部地区。针对本文的研究主题,本文对2001年至2005年各省级地区市场化指数的平均值进行聚类分析,把我国三十一个省级地区分为经济发达地区、次发达地区和不发达地区。通过比较三个地区的经济金融状况,可以看出我国区域经济体的差异非常大。在这一背景下我国实施统一货币政策会不会产生区域效应呢?如果产生区域效应,其根本影响因素又有哪些呢?针对这些问题,本文的研究结论主要有:
(1)在基于最优货币区理论和借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,本文利用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)以及脉冲响应函数,采用1984年至2006年的年度样本数据,通过对我国发达地区、次发达地区和不发达地区对货币政策响应的实证研究,表明我国货币政策确实存在明显的区域效应。
(2)本文分析了我国区域金融体系差异的形成和现状以及产生的原因,从理论的角度研究了金融体系的发展水平与效率与经济增长的关系。在研究金融体系差异对货币政策区域效应的影响时,本文把经济增长作为货币政策的目标。通过建立面板数据回归模型实证检验了金融体系的发展水平和效率有利于促进经济增长、不同地区金融体系对经济增长的影响程度不一样,由此便产生货币政策区域效应,从而表明我国区域金融体系差异是我国货币政策区域效应产生的重要因素。
(3)根据预防性储蓄理论本文推导出我国居民消费模型,通过实证研究得出各省市自治区居民消费模型。影响居民消费的因素在模型中可以体现出来,本文通过比较各省市自治区的影响居民消费的因素的差异性来分析我国居民消费储蓄行为的差异性存在。居民是一国经济活动的重要微观主体,它的行为,特别是消费和储蓄选择行为对货币政策具有重要的影响。居民的消费形成最终需求,居民的储蓄形成重要的投资资金来源,居民的储蓄和消费行为是影响货币政策行为的基本因素之一。
(4)本文从理论上论述企业结构对货币政策传导的影响,从而推导出不同地区的不同企业结构对货币政策的响应的不一致性,最终导致货币政策的区域效应。通过实证检验,本文验证了区域企业结构差异是我国货币政策区域效应形成的一个重要因素。
货币政策目标中包含着区域经济协调发展的成份,中国作为一个处于经济转轨时期的发展中大国,只有区域经济协调发展,才能实现全国经济的平稳发展,避免经济的大起大落,实现社会主义市场经济体制生产目的,货币政策应该为这一目标服务。根据本文研究结论,本文提出相关的政策建议,提出要减缓货币政策区域效应首先要畅通货币政策传导机制,然后调整传导过程中各区域微观主体(金融机构、居民和企业)的差异性,最后可以在一定程度上实施差别化的区域货币政策,三管齐下共同治理货币政策区域效应。
The essential and core question in the research of monetary policy is about monetary policy transmission. The research of monetary policy transmission mainly concentrates on whether is monetary policy neutral, monetary policy transmission mechanism and the regional effects of monetary policy which appeared in recent years and is also main subject of this article. Scott (1955) is the scholar who earliest studied the regional effects of monetary policy. The basic of the monetary policy uniformity is that monetary policy implementation is a total regulation and not micro regulation, if we want to achieve the predetermined regulative goal, there is a very important prerequisite in the process of total regulation which is economical and financial identity in the regions of monetary policy implementation. Optimum Currency Areas which proposed by Robert ? Mundell, Nobel economic prize winner in 1999, is the basic theory supporting monetary integration. The subject of this article is to discuss and empirically examine the most fundamental reasons of the regional effects of Chinese monetary policy-the microscopic subject diversity. The transmission effects of monetary policy mainly depend on the behavior of the microscopic subject, regardless of monetary policy transmission mechanism.
With the deepening of Chinese reform and opening-up、marketability advancement, regional characteristics of Chinese economy become more and more obvious. Chinese regional economies can be divided into eastern coastal areas, central region and western regions, whether from the perspective of financial system, industrial structure or general perspective. In view of the research subject, this article made a cluster analysis of marketability mean value index of various provincial levels areas from the year 2001 to 2005, and split Chinese 31 provincial level areas into economically developed regions, sub-developed regions and under-developed regions. We can see that China's regional economies' differences are very obvious by comparing the economic and financial situation of the three regions. In this background, whether china will have a regional effect of monetary policy in the process of the implementation of a unified monetary policy? What are the basic influencing factors? In the view of these questions, the main conclusions of this article are following:
(1)Based on the theory of Optimum Currency Areas and the domestic and foreign research results, this article shows that Chinas' monetary policy has indeed an obvious regional effect, by using SVAR model and impulse response function, adopting the annual sample data from 1984 to 2006, and by empirical research on response to monetary policy of developed areas, sub-developed areas and underdeveloped areas.
(2) This paper analyzes the formation and present situation as well as the causes of Chinas' regional differences of financial system, and has studied the relationship between financial system's level of development and the efficiency with the economic growth. This article takes the economic growth as the goal of monetary policy in the research of the influence of financial system difference on the regional effect of monetary policy. This paper empirically testes that financial system's level of development and the efficiency are advantageous to the promotion economic growth and that different regional financial system is dissimilar to economic growth's influence by establishing panel data regression model, so the regional effect of monetary policy bring about, which shows that china's regional financial system diversity is an important factor of the regional effect of monetary policy.
(3) According to the theory of precautionary savings, this article inferred Chinese resident consuming model of various provinces and autonomous regions' residents consuming mode by empirical research. The factors that influent people's consumption can be reflected in the model, the paper analyzes the diversity existence of Chinas' consuming and savings behaviors by comparing the difference of factors that influent the various provinces and autonomous household consumption. Residents are important micro activities in a country, whose behaviors, especially the consuming-saving behaviors, have an important influence on monetary policy. Resident's consumption forms the final demand, resident's deposit forms the important origin of capital funds, resident's deposit and the consuming behavior is one of the fundamental factors that affect the monetary policy.
(4)This article discusses theoretically the influence of enterprise's structure on monetary policy transmission and infers that different enterprise's structure in different regions have inconsistent response to the monetary policy and then causes the regional effect of monetary policy. By empirical examine, this paper validates that regional diversity of enterprise's structure is an essential factor in the formation of the regional effects of Chinese monetary policy.
The objectives of monetary policy contain the composition of coordinated development of regional economy, China, as a large developing country in a period of economic transition, in order to achieve a smooth development of the national economy and avoid big ups and downs in the economy, and to realize the socialist market economic system of production purpose, only depend on the coordinated development of regional economy, monetary policy should serve for this goal. According to the conclusion, this article puts forward the related policy proposal, proposes that in order to slow down the regional effects of monetary policy, we should firstly smooth monetary policy transmission mechanism, then adjust the diversity of regional microscopic subjects (financial institutions, residents and enterprises) in the process of transmission, at last to a certain extent implements differentiated regional monetary policy, three-pronged common governance of regional effects of monetary policy.
引文
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