汇率变动、宏观调控与经济增长
|
摘要
20世纪80年代中后期日本的经历与目前的中国有着惊人的相似,面对近年来人民币的不断升值,人们开始担忧未来中国经济是否会走上日本的老路。为避免人民币不断升值给实体经济带来的负面影响,中国政府和人民银行亦是频繁对宏观经济进行干预的。这些干预对于中国未来经济的可持续增长是否能发挥作用,有待于商榷和检验。
本文首先用TOPSIS等方法,从GDP层面、宏观经济政策四大目标、国家竞争力以及经济增长方式等方面对日本和德国在本币大幅升值前后的宏观经济状况进行了比较。最终得到日本经济无论与自己历史相比还是与同时期的德国相比,确实存在着一定程度的“失去”。导致日本经济“失去”的原因有很多,本文的重点在于研究应对本币升值的宏观调控政策对经济长期增长与发展的有效性。通过对在同样面临本币大幅升值的以市场为主导的德国和以政府主导的日本,两国政府以及央行所采取的财政政策和货币政策中介目标的比较,得到的结论是：同样的本币升值,德国和日本当局无论在货币政策还是财政政策的应对,都存在一定的差异,相对日本,德国确实较好的保持了货币政策的独立性,并且德国政府和央行对汇率波动的干预程度要远低于日本。
接着,本文进一步将两国应对本币升值的宏观经济政策(包括货币政策和财政政策)对实体经济产生的影响进行比较和分析：即利用两国历史数据进行实证检验,以确定两国应对本币升值的宏观调控中介目标和经济增长与发展的定量关系。实证研究的结论为：两国应对汇率波动的宏观调控政策对其实体经济的影响亦不同,无论是货币政策还是财政政策手段,愈是市场化或符合市场规律愈能对经济增长和经济发展发挥积极作用,而人为的行政干预手段,最多只能在短期内发挥一点作用,长期则都是无效的。
既然应对汇率波动的宏观调控政策从长期看都是无效的,那么为促进经济的可持续增长,未来政府的工作重点或者说政策导向应该是什么?为此,笔者从传统的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数出发,将经济增长的关键性因素回溯于人口、资本和技术创新这三大“最原始”的因素仍然通过日本和德国的实证与比较展开讨论,得到的结论为：人口老龄化、投资效率低下以及创新不足是导致上世纪70年代那个“朝气蓬勃、昂首阔步”的日本经济衰退的主要原因；而德国虽然亦面临人口老龄化问题,但却没有成为德国经济发展的限制与障碍；把握投资重点、掌握核心技术,不断研发与技术创新是德国经济长期平稳增长的重要因素。
本文最后部分,提出面对人民币的升值,应吸取日本的教训,学习德国的经验,从中国的现实出发,政府和央行过多的干预对于经济的长期增长并无益,要想实现中国经济未来的可持续发展,除了将汇率、利率等市场主体市场化之外,调控政策也应该更加市场化,且政府宏观调控的重点应该转向改善人口结构、提高劳动力素质、引导资本合理投资以及鼓励技术创新等方面。
China's current economic condition is quite similar to that of Japan's in the1980s. The RMB revaluation in recent years has made many people started to worry about whether China would follow Japan's footsteps. To avoid the negative impact caused by RMB revaluation on the real economy, Chinese government and The People's Bank of China have intervened the macro-economy frequently. Whether the interference can act positively on the sustainable growth of China's future economy is open to debate.
This paper compared and contrasted macroeconomic situation (including four goals of the macroeconomic policy, national competitiveness and mode of economic growth, etc) of Japan and Germany before and after their respective currency revaluation using TOPSIS. It has been found that Japan's economy had indeed suffered a "loss" to a certain extent no matter compared with its own history or Germany. Many factors contributed to its losses. The emphasis of this paper is to study the effect of macro adjustment on economic sustainable growth and development in order to address the issue of currency revaluation. This paper compared and contrasted the currency policy and financial policy adopted by the government and central bank of Germany and Japan when facing the same currency substantial revaluation. A conclusion was drawn based on the bove analysis:Germany and Japan adopted different currency policy and financial policy facing similar currency revaluation; Germany's currency policy is more independent than Japan's; Germany interfered much less than Japan when the exchange rate fluctuated.
This paper also compared and analysed the effects of macroeconomic policies (including currency policy and financial policy) adopted by the two countries on their respective real economy. The author compared the data of the two countries during that period and tried to identify the quantitative relationship between macro adjustment and economic growth. The result of this empirical research could be summarized as the following:The effects of macroeconomic policies of the two countries on their respective real economy are quite different; A more market-oriented currency policy or financial policy can have more positive effect on economic growth and development; Any artificial interference can only play a role over the short term but is proved to be ineffective in the long term.
Since macro adjustment policy against fluctuations in exchange rate is proved to be ineffective in the long term, then what should government do? The author attributed economic growth to the three primitive factors:population, capital and technological innovations according to Cobb-Douglas production function, and thereby came with the conclusion that the aging population, inefficient investment and lack of innovation were the key reasons that led to the economic recession of Japan whose economy once enjoyed prosperity in the1970s. By contrast, the aging of population did not become the obstacle of economic development in Germany; making good investment, mastering core technologies and advancing technological innovation contributed to the sustainable economic growth in Germany.
At last, the author proposed that we should learn the lessons from Japan and draw on experiences from Germany to tackle RMB revaluation. The government and central bank's excessive interferences won't help much. In order to realize the sustainable economic development of China, exchange rate and interest rate should be left to the market. Government adjustments should also be more market oriented. Government control should put more emphasis on improving population structure, improving the quality of labor force, guiding investment and encouraging technological innovation.
本文首先用TOPSIS等方法,从GDP层面、宏观经济政策四大目标、国家竞争力以及经济增长方式等方面对日本和德国在本币大幅升值前后的宏观经济状况进行了比较。最终得到日本经济无论与自己历史相比还是与同时期的德国相比,确实存在着一定程度的“失去”。导致日本经济“失去”的原因有很多,本文的重点在于研究应对本币升值的宏观调控政策对经济长期增长与发展的有效性。通过对在同样面临本币大幅升值的以市场为主导的德国和以政府主导的日本,两国政府以及央行所采取的财政政策和货币政策中介目标的比较,得到的结论是：同样的本币升值,德国和日本当局无论在货币政策还是财政政策的应对,都存在一定的差异,相对日本,德国确实较好的保持了货币政策的独立性,并且德国政府和央行对汇率波动的干预程度要远低于日本。
接着,本文进一步将两国应对本币升值的宏观经济政策(包括货币政策和财政政策)对实体经济产生的影响进行比较和分析：即利用两国历史数据进行实证检验,以确定两国应对本币升值的宏观调控中介目标和经济增长与发展的定量关系。实证研究的结论为：两国应对汇率波动的宏观调控政策对其实体经济的影响亦不同,无论是货币政策还是财政政策手段,愈是市场化或符合市场规律愈能对经济增长和经济发展发挥积极作用,而人为的行政干预手段,最多只能在短期内发挥一点作用,长期则都是无效的。
既然应对汇率波动的宏观调控政策从长期看都是无效的,那么为促进经济的可持续增长,未来政府的工作重点或者说政策导向应该是什么?为此,笔者从传统的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数出发,将经济增长的关键性因素回溯于人口、资本和技术创新这三大“最原始”的因素仍然通过日本和德国的实证与比较展开讨论,得到的结论为：人口老龄化、投资效率低下以及创新不足是导致上世纪70年代那个“朝气蓬勃、昂首阔步”的日本经济衰退的主要原因；而德国虽然亦面临人口老龄化问题,但却没有成为德国经济发展的限制与障碍；把握投资重点、掌握核心技术,不断研发与技术创新是德国经济长期平稳增长的重要因素。
本文最后部分,提出面对人民币的升值,应吸取日本的教训,学习德国的经验,从中国的现实出发,政府和央行过多的干预对于经济的长期增长并无益,要想实现中国经济未来的可持续发展,除了将汇率、利率等市场主体市场化之外,调控政策也应该更加市场化,且政府宏观调控的重点应该转向改善人口结构、提高劳动力素质、引导资本合理投资以及鼓励技术创新等方面。
China's current economic condition is quite similar to that of Japan's in the1980s. The RMB revaluation in recent years has made many people started to worry about whether China would follow Japan's footsteps. To avoid the negative impact caused by RMB revaluation on the real economy, Chinese government and The People's Bank of China have intervened the macro-economy frequently. Whether the interference can act positively on the sustainable growth of China's future economy is open to debate.
This paper compared and contrasted macroeconomic situation (including four goals of the macroeconomic policy, national competitiveness and mode of economic growth, etc) of Japan and Germany before and after their respective currency revaluation using TOPSIS. It has been found that Japan's economy had indeed suffered a "loss" to a certain extent no matter compared with its own history or Germany. Many factors contributed to its losses. The emphasis of this paper is to study the effect of macro adjustment on economic sustainable growth and development in order to address the issue of currency revaluation. This paper compared and contrasted the currency policy and financial policy adopted by the government and central bank of Germany and Japan when facing the same currency substantial revaluation. A conclusion was drawn based on the bove analysis:Germany and Japan adopted different currency policy and financial policy facing similar currency revaluation; Germany's currency policy is more independent than Japan's; Germany interfered much less than Japan when the exchange rate fluctuated.
This paper also compared and analysed the effects of macroeconomic policies (including currency policy and financial policy) adopted by the two countries on their respective real economy. The author compared the data of the two countries during that period and tried to identify the quantitative relationship between macro adjustment and economic growth. The result of this empirical research could be summarized as the following:The effects of macroeconomic policies of the two countries on their respective real economy are quite different; A more market-oriented currency policy or financial policy can have more positive effect on economic growth and development; Any artificial interference can only play a role over the short term but is proved to be ineffective in the long term.
Since macro adjustment policy against fluctuations in exchange rate is proved to be ineffective in the long term, then what should government do? The author attributed economic growth to the three primitive factors:population, capital and technological innovations according to Cobb-Douglas production function, and thereby came with the conclusion that the aging population, inefficient investment and lack of innovation were the key reasons that led to the economic recession of Japan whose economy once enjoyed prosperity in the1970s. By contrast, the aging of population did not become the obstacle of economic development in Germany; making good investment, mastering core technologies and advancing technological innovation contributed to the sustainable economic growth in Germany.
At last, the author proposed that we should learn the lessons from Japan and draw on experiences from Germany to tackle RMB revaluation. The government and central bank's excessive interferences won't help much. In order to realize the sustainable economic development of China, exchange rate and interest rate should be left to the market. Government adjustments should also be more market oriented. Government control should put more emphasis on improving population structure, improving the quality of labor force, guiding investment and encouraging technological innovation.
引文
1 引自高铁梅,计量经济分析方法与建模(第二版),清华大学出版社,2009.03
1 萨缪尔森,《经济学》(第12版),中国发展出版社,1996年,第750页。
1 朱勇,《新增长理论》,中国人民大学博十学位论文,1998.
1 引自：从制定税收政策重新发现日本,2011年1月,东方则富网(http://finance.eastmoney.com)
[2]Ajay Patel,Term structure linkages surrounding thePlaza and Louvre accords:Evidence from Euro-rates and long-memory components[J], Journal of Banking & Finance,28 (2004) 2051-2075.
[3]Koichi Hamada, Yasushi Okada, Monetary and international factors behind Japan's lostdecade, [J], Japanese Int. Economies 23 (2009) 200-219.
[4]Christian DANNE, Gunther SCHNABL, A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan[J], China Economic Review 19 (2008) 183-196.
[5]Hiro Ito, U.S. current account debate with Japan then, with China now[J], Journal of Asian Economics 20 (2009) 294-313.
[6]Fumio Hayashi,Edward C. Prescott, The 1990s in Japan:A Lost Decade[J],working paper.2003.
[7]Ito,Takatoshi and lwaisako,Tokuo. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan" [J], NBER Working paper 5358.November 1995.
[8]Ito,Takotoshi "The land/Housing problem in Japan:A Macroeconomic Approach." [J],Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, January 1993.
[9]Haruhiko Kuroda. The "Nixon Shock" and the "Plaza Agreement":Lessons from Two Seemingly Failed Cases of Japan's Exchange Rate Policy[J], China &World Economy/P3-10, Vol.12, No.1,2004.
[10]Allen, F and Gorton, Cz. Churning Bubbles [J], Review of Economic Studies,1993,60(4):813-836.
[11]Bernanke,Movements B. S, and M. Gertler in Asset Prices? [J],Should Central Banks Respond to American Economic Review,2001,91(2),253-57.
[12]Bordo Michael, Jeanne Does "Benign Neglect" 5(2),139-164.Olivier, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices:Make Sense? [J], International Finance,2002.
[13]Bordo D. Michael, Jeanne Olivier, Asset Prices, Reversals, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy, [R], Annual Meeting of the American Financial Association, New Orleans, Lousiana,2001, Jan 7.
[14]Cai Dunning, University of Asset Price and Monetary policy:Some Notes,[R], Hawaii at Manoa,May,2003.
[15]Calvo, Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework, [J], Journal of Monetary Economics,1983,12(3),983-998.
[16]Diamond W. Douglas and Dybvig H. Philip, Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity[J],Journal of Political Economics,1983,91(3),299-314.
[17]F. Allen,G. Gorton, Churching Bubbles [J],Review of Economic Studies,1993,60,813-836.
[18]Filardo,Andrew J.Monetary Policy and Asset Prices[J],Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review,2000,3rd11-37.
[19]Fisher, I, Econometrica The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions[J],1933,1,337-57.
[20]Franklin Allen, and Gale Economic Journal,2000,Douglas, Bubbles and Crises[J].The Economic Journal 110(460),236-55.
[21]Garber, Peter M,The First Famous Bubbles[J],Journal of Political Economy,1989,97 (31),337-57.
[22]Gerlach, Stefan and Frank Smets, MCIs and Monetary Policy[J],European Economic Review, 2000,44,1677-1700.
[23]Granger C. W. J,Swanson N.R. An Introduction to Stochastic Unit-root Processes [J], Journal of Econometrics,1997,80(1):35-62.
[24]Diba, B,H Economics, Grossman. Rational Inflationary Bubbles[J], Journal of Monetary 1998,21(1):35-46.
[25]B.Mandelbrot,Scalling in Financial Prices:Multifractal Concentration [J],Quantitative Finance 2001, 1(6):641-649.
[26]Alan Greenspan, risk and uncertainty in monetary policy[J], American Economic Review 2004,94(2):33-40.
[27]Jack Selody,Carolyn Wilkins. Asset Prices and Monetary Policy:A Canadian Perspective on the Issues[J], Bank of Canada Review 2004,2004,3-14.
[28]Kuran T, Law Review, Sunstein,1999 C, Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation [J], Stanford 51(4):683-768.
[29]Alan Greenspan. risk and uncertainty in monetary policy [J], American Economic Review 2004,94(2):33-40.
[30]Marcos Chamon Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling? [J],.IMF Working Paper,2004,04-99
[31]Krugman, Paul. Bubble, Boom, Crash:Theoretical Notes on Asia's Crises [J], Working Paper, 1998,MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
[32]刘帅帅,德国本币升值时期保持经济平稳运行的启示,经济理论研究[J],84-85；
[33]刘宁、赵美贞,德国马克汇率变迁及对中国的启示[J],湖北经济学院学报,2007年9月第5卷第5期,61-66..
[34]钟红,德国马克汇率走势回顾与前瞻[J],国际金融研究,1996年第3期,35-37.
[35]李以明,经济增长对汇率变动的影响——以德国、日本为例[J],山东省农业干部管理学院学报,2005年第21卷第4期,53-54；
[36]李忠尚,一个稳定的货币是健康经济的基础——德国战后金融体制及其央行研究[J],金融研究,1996年第2期,54-59;
[37]张斌,何帆,如何应对经济崛起时期的汇率升值压力日本、德国的经验与启示[J],国际经济评论,2004,5-6,11-13；
[38]刘宁、赵美贞,德国马克汇率变迁及对中国的启示[J],湖北经济学院学报,2007年9月第5卷第5期,61-65；
[39]郑秀君、陈建安,日本泡沫经济研究文献综述p1993-2010[J],日本研究,2011年第1期33-39；
[40]王允贵,广场协议对日本经济的影响及启示[J],国际经济评论,2004年第1期,p47-50；
[41]袁钢明,日本经济泡沫兴败及其对中国经济的启示——兼论日元升值的正面影响[J],国际经济评论,2007年第4期,53-63;
[42]李亚芬,日元升值对经济影响的综合分析[J],国际金融研究,2008年11期,44-49;
[43]周林薇,从日本股市暴跌看泡沫经济的特征[J],世界经济,1993年第2期,66-71；
[44]陈江生,泡沫经济形成的原因分析[J],世界经济,1996年第3期,5-8;
[45]三木谷良一,日本泡沫经济的产生、崩溃与金融改革[J],金融研究,1998年第6期,1-4：
[46]李晓西、杨琳,虚拟经济、泡沫经济与实体经济[J],财贸经济,2000年6期,5-11；
[47]李俊久、田中景,泡沫经济前后日本宏观经济战略的调整[J],现代日本经济,2008 年第3期,7-10；
[48]冯维江、何帆,日本股市与房地产泡沫起源及崩溃的政治经济解释[J],世界经济,2008年第1期3-12；
[49]张见、刘力臻,日元升值对日本泡沫经济的影响分析[J],现代日本经济,2010年第5期,28-34；
[50]田香兰,日本人口结构变化对其宏观经济的影响[J],环球瞭望,2010年第8期,114-117；
[51]刘穷志何奇,人口老龄化、经济增长与财政政策[J],经济学(季刊),2012年10月第12卷第1期,119-134；
[52]史清琪、秦宝庭、陈警,衡量经济增长中技术进步作用的主要指标初探[J],数量经济技术经济研究,1984年第10期,9-17；
[53]胡燕燕,日本经验的启示：升值不可怕关键是宏观抉择时机和节奏[J],期货日报,2010年9月29日,第003版；
[54]边恕,日本“失去的十年”的经济绩效及宏观政策分析[J],日本研究,2008年第3期,36-40：
[55]季尚义,德国的“社会市场经济”经济政策及其财政税收的宏观调控及启示[J],涉外税务,1996年第4期,58-62；
[56]孙晓青,德国的固定资本投资及国家对投资的调控[J],世界经济,1994年第5期,53-57；
[57]王野秋,德国社会市场经济条件下的宏观调控[J],山西煤炭管理干部学院学报,2010年第3期,36-37;
[58]李国强、娄毅翔,德国经济政策取向、特点及启示[J],重庆理工大学学报(社会科学),2012年第26卷第12期,1-5；
[59]孙立坚,日本的泡沫经济会在中国重演吗[J],《经济研究参考》,2010年第24期,35；
[60]曹莹,德国应对人口老龄化的相关政策及启示[J],重庆科技学院学报(社会科学),2012年第10期,72-74；
[61]姜波克、刘沁清,经济增长方式的判断指标研究[J],复旦学报(社会科学版),2010年第4期64-71；
[62]王宇,日本泡沫经济生成与破灭的故事[J],《中国金融》,2010年3月,96页；
[63]杜艺中,日本泡沫经济的在回顾与启示[J],《金融与经济》,2010年第4期,66-70。
[64]日本的启示[J],金融40人论坛(http://www.cf40.org.cn), CF40要报,2012.11；
[65]李月,有效经济增长的理论研究[D],南京大学博士学位论文,2009年4月；
[66]鲁育宗,经济虚拟化背景下的经济增长的原因和机制研究[D],复旦大学博士学位论文,2008年5月；
[67]朱勇,新增长理论[D],中国人民大学博士学位论文,1998年6月；
[68]高铁梅,计量经济分析方法与建模(第二版)[M],清华大学出版社,2009.03；
[69]新浪长安讲坛,http://finance.sina.com.cn/sinachanganforum/;
[70][美]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M],商务印书馆,2003.
[71][美]保罗·克鲁格曼.汇率的不稳定性[M]北京大学出版社,2000.
[72][日]奥村洋彦.日本“泡沫经济”与金融改革[M],中国金融出版社2000.
[73]谢辉,汇率对国内生产总值的影响及其传导机制[M],新华出版社,2010.
[74]萨缪尔森,《经济学》(第12版)[M],中国发展出版社,1996年；
1 萨缪尔森,《经济学》(第12版),中国发展出版社,1996年,第750页。
1 朱勇,《新增长理论》,中国人民大学博十学位论文,1998.
1 引自：从制定税收政策重新发现日本,2011年1月,东方则富网(http://finance.eastmoney.com)
[2]Ajay Patel,Term structure linkages surrounding thePlaza and Louvre accords:Evidence from Euro-rates and long-memory components[J], Journal of Banking & Finance,28 (2004) 2051-2075.
[3]Koichi Hamada, Yasushi Okada, Monetary and international factors behind Japan's lostdecade, [J], Japanese Int. Economies 23 (2009) 200-219.
[4]Christian DANNE, Gunther SCHNABL, A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan[J], China Economic Review 19 (2008) 183-196.
[5]Hiro Ito, U.S. current account debate with Japan then, with China now[J], Journal of Asian Economics 20 (2009) 294-313.
[6]Fumio Hayashi,Edward C. Prescott, The 1990s in Japan:A Lost Decade[J],working paper.2003.
[7]Ito,Takatoshi and lwaisako,Tokuo. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan" [J], NBER Working paper 5358.November 1995.
[8]Ito,Takotoshi "The land/Housing problem in Japan:A Macroeconomic Approach." [J],Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, January 1993.
[9]Haruhiko Kuroda. The "Nixon Shock" and the "Plaza Agreement":Lessons from Two Seemingly Failed Cases of Japan's Exchange Rate Policy[J], China &World Economy/P3-10, Vol.12, No.1,2004.
[10]Allen, F and Gorton, Cz. Churning Bubbles [J], Review of Economic Studies,1993,60(4):813-836.
[11]Bernanke,Movements B. S, and M. Gertler in Asset Prices? [J],Should Central Banks Respond to American Economic Review,2001,91(2),253-57.
[12]Bordo Michael, Jeanne Does "Benign Neglect" 5(2),139-164.Olivier, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices:Make Sense? [J], International Finance,2002.
[13]Bordo D. Michael, Jeanne Olivier, Asset Prices, Reversals, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy, [R], Annual Meeting of the American Financial Association, New Orleans, Lousiana,2001, Jan 7.
[14]Cai Dunning, University of Asset Price and Monetary policy:Some Notes,[R], Hawaii at Manoa,May,2003.
[15]Calvo, Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework, [J], Journal of Monetary Economics,1983,12(3),983-998.
[16]Diamond W. Douglas and Dybvig H. Philip, Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity[J],Journal of Political Economics,1983,91(3),299-314.
[17]F. Allen,G. Gorton, Churching Bubbles [J],Review of Economic Studies,1993,60,813-836.
[18]Filardo,Andrew J.Monetary Policy and Asset Prices[J],Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review,2000,3rd11-37.
[19]Fisher, I, Econometrica The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions[J],1933,1,337-57.
[20]Franklin Allen, and Gale Economic Journal,2000,Douglas, Bubbles and Crises[J].The Economic Journal 110(460),236-55.
[21]Garber, Peter M,The First Famous Bubbles[J],Journal of Political Economy,1989,97 (31),337-57.
[22]Gerlach, Stefan and Frank Smets, MCIs and Monetary Policy[J],European Economic Review, 2000,44,1677-1700.
[23]Granger C. W. J,Swanson N.R. An Introduction to Stochastic Unit-root Processes [J], Journal of Econometrics,1997,80(1):35-62.
[24]Diba, B,H Economics, Grossman. Rational Inflationary Bubbles[J], Journal of Monetary 1998,21(1):35-46.
[25]B.Mandelbrot,Scalling in Financial Prices:Multifractal Concentration [J],Quantitative Finance 2001, 1(6):641-649.
[26]Alan Greenspan, risk and uncertainty in monetary policy[J], American Economic Review 2004,94(2):33-40.
[27]Jack Selody,Carolyn Wilkins. Asset Prices and Monetary Policy:A Canadian Perspective on the Issues[J], Bank of Canada Review 2004,2004,3-14.
[28]Kuran T, Law Review, Sunstein,1999 C, Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation [J], Stanford 51(4):683-768.
[29]Alan Greenspan. risk and uncertainty in monetary policy [J], American Economic Review 2004,94(2):33-40.
[30]Marcos Chamon Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling? [J],.IMF Working Paper,2004,04-99
[31]Krugman, Paul. Bubble, Boom, Crash:Theoretical Notes on Asia's Crises [J], Working Paper, 1998,MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
[32]刘帅帅,德国本币升值时期保持经济平稳运行的启示,经济理论研究[J],84-85；
[33]刘宁、赵美贞,德国马克汇率变迁及对中国的启示[J],湖北经济学院学报,2007年9月第5卷第5期,61-66..
[34]钟红,德国马克汇率走势回顾与前瞻[J],国际金融研究,1996年第3期,35-37.
[35]李以明,经济增长对汇率变动的影响——以德国、日本为例[J],山东省农业干部管理学院学报,2005年第21卷第4期,53-54；
[36]李忠尚,一个稳定的货币是健康经济的基础——德国战后金融体制及其央行研究[J],金融研究,1996年第2期,54-59;
[37]张斌,何帆,如何应对经济崛起时期的汇率升值压力日本、德国的经验与启示[J],国际经济评论,2004,5-6,11-13；
[38]刘宁、赵美贞,德国马克汇率变迁及对中国的启示[J],湖北经济学院学报,2007年9月第5卷第5期,61-65；
[39]郑秀君、陈建安,日本泡沫经济研究文献综述p1993-2010[J],日本研究,2011年第1期33-39；
[40]王允贵,广场协议对日本经济的影响及启示[J],国际经济评论,2004年第1期,p47-50；
[41]袁钢明,日本经济泡沫兴败及其对中国经济的启示——兼论日元升值的正面影响[J],国际经济评论,2007年第4期,53-63;
[42]李亚芬,日元升值对经济影响的综合分析[J],国际金融研究,2008年11期,44-49;
[43]周林薇,从日本股市暴跌看泡沫经济的特征[J],世界经济,1993年第2期,66-71；
[44]陈江生,泡沫经济形成的原因分析[J],世界经济,1996年第3期,5-8;
[45]三木谷良一,日本泡沫经济的产生、崩溃与金融改革[J],金融研究,1998年第6期,1-4：
[46]李晓西、杨琳,虚拟经济、泡沫经济与实体经济[J],财贸经济,2000年6期,5-11；
[47]李俊久、田中景,泡沫经济前后日本宏观经济战略的调整[J],现代日本经济,2008 年第3期,7-10；
[48]冯维江、何帆,日本股市与房地产泡沫起源及崩溃的政治经济解释[J],世界经济,2008年第1期3-12；
[49]张见、刘力臻,日元升值对日本泡沫经济的影响分析[J],现代日本经济,2010年第5期,28-34；
[50]田香兰,日本人口结构变化对其宏观经济的影响[J],环球瞭望,2010年第8期,114-117；
[51]刘穷志何奇,人口老龄化、经济增长与财政政策[J],经济学(季刊),2012年10月第12卷第1期,119-134；
[52]史清琪、秦宝庭、陈警,衡量经济增长中技术进步作用的主要指标初探[J],数量经济技术经济研究,1984年第10期,9-17；
[53]胡燕燕,日本经验的启示：升值不可怕关键是宏观抉择时机和节奏[J],期货日报,2010年9月29日,第003版；
[54]边恕,日本“失去的十年”的经济绩效及宏观政策分析[J],日本研究,2008年第3期,36-40：
[55]季尚义,德国的“社会市场经济”经济政策及其财政税收的宏观调控及启示[J],涉外税务,1996年第4期,58-62；
[56]孙晓青,德国的固定资本投资及国家对投资的调控[J],世界经济,1994年第5期,53-57；
[57]王野秋,德国社会市场经济条件下的宏观调控[J],山西煤炭管理干部学院学报,2010年第3期,36-37;
[58]李国强、娄毅翔,德国经济政策取向、特点及启示[J],重庆理工大学学报(社会科学),2012年第26卷第12期,1-5；
[59]孙立坚,日本的泡沫经济会在中国重演吗[J],《经济研究参考》,2010年第24期,35；
[60]曹莹,德国应对人口老龄化的相关政策及启示[J],重庆科技学院学报(社会科学),2012年第10期,72-74；
[61]姜波克、刘沁清,经济增长方式的判断指标研究[J],复旦学报(社会科学版),2010年第4期64-71；
[62]王宇,日本泡沫经济生成与破灭的故事[J],《中国金融》,2010年3月,96页；
[63]杜艺中,日本泡沫经济的在回顾与启示[J],《金融与经济》,2010年第4期,66-70。
[64]日本的启示[J],金融40人论坛(http://www.cf40.org.cn), CF40要报,2012.11；
[65]李月,有效经济增长的理论研究[D],南京大学博士学位论文,2009年4月；
[66]鲁育宗,经济虚拟化背景下的经济增长的原因和机制研究[D],复旦大学博士学位论文,2008年5月；
[67]朱勇,新增长理论[D],中国人民大学博士学位论文,1998年6月；
[68]高铁梅,计量经济分析方法与建模(第二版)[M],清华大学出版社,2009.03；
[69]新浪长安讲坛,http://finance.sina.com.cn/sinachanganforum/;
[70][美]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M],商务印书馆,2003.
[71][美]保罗·克鲁格曼.汇率的不稳定性[M]北京大学出版社,2000.
[72][日]奥村洋彦.日本“泡沫经济”与金融改革[M],中国金融出版社2000.
[73]谢辉,汇率对国内生产总值的影响及其传导机制[M],新华出版社,2010.
[74]萨缪尔森,《经济学》(第12版)[M],中国发展出版社,1996年；