中国房地产预警机制研究与实证分析
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摘要
各国经济增长和发展的历程表明,经济波动是其增长过程的常态。经济高速扩张之后必然紧随着经济的收缩,每一次超常波动都会给经济造成破坏,造成资源的浪费。与宏观经济运行过程的波动一样,房地产业在发展过程中也存在着波动现象。依据历史和当前的数据,通过对影响房地产发展的指标体系的分析,建立房地产业预警机制,对房地产业的未来发展趋势做出预测,提出应对房地产波动的产业政策,对我国房地产业的发展具有重要的意义。
本项研究旨在初步建立科学可行的房地产市场预警预报体系,客观分析房地产运行轨迹,正确评价和判断房地产形势及发展趋势,及早发现并且预防房地产异常波动对国民经济造成的影响,引导市场理性投资和消费,促进房地产经济的持续良好运行。
本论文运用规范研究和实证研究的方法,对房地产业预警机制进行了较为系统的研究。论文比较全面、深入地分析和阐明了房地产业预警机制理论及其方法,通过研究国内外经济预警以及房地产业预警的历史和研究成果,采用黄色预警法中的指数预警的方法建立起了我国房地产市场的预警系统。从房地产活动的全过程出发,选取了和房地产业相关的13个指标来建立预警指标体系,经过长期趋势调整和不规则调整,得到景气循环波动值;并且改进了传统扩散指数计算方法,设计了我国房地产业的综合扩散指数;利用扩散指数划分了警界和警级,建立了定量的具有评价功能的警界设置,并运用了回归预测方法进行预测预报未来市场的景气状况。
利用1996年-2006年的统计数据,应用到我国房地产市场预警系统中分析,结果显示我国房地产市场正处于平稳上升阶段,经过政府的宏观调控,将趋于更加成熟;预计近期内不会出现剧烈的波动。
The experience of economic growth and development in many countries indicate that economic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth. Following the high inflation of the economy there must be the economic conflation, and every intense fluctuation process to some extent destroy the economy and waste the natural resources in a large scale. Like macro-economy, the development of real estate industry also shows a phenomenon of fluctuation. Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, we should analyze the internal factors and external shocks of the fluctuation of real estate industry rely on the data in history and at present, to set up the early warning system by supervising the index system to which relate the real estate industry. We can predict the future economic fluctuation trends with the early warning system and applies it to the economic administration. It is of more important and significance to the development of real estate in China.
The purpose of this research is trying to set up a preliminary scientific and feasible real estate market early-warning system that can be used to objectively analyze the running orbit of the real estate. The situation and developing trend of the real estate market could be assessed and judged correctly. The abnormal fluctuation in the real estate market could be discovered and prevented at the early stages. The investment and the consumption in the market can be guided in order to promote the real estate economy running well continuously.
This essay probes into the economic early warning system by using theoretic and case studies. The essay systematically analyzes the theories and methods of the early warning system, Through the detailed review to the history and situation of the domestic and international economic early-warning development, the approach of index early-warning has been used to set up the early-warning system. According to the whole process of the real estate's running, this paper chose 13 indicators related to the real estate industry to set up the early-warning indicator system, obtained booming circulation fluctuation data according the long-time tendency adjustment and irregular adjustment; improved the calculation method of the traditional diffusion index, design a new type of integrative diffusion index; set up the a quantitative boundary system of early warning which possesses the function of appraisement, forecasted the prosperity status of the real estate market in future by the method Return Prediction.
The Chinese real estate market early-warning system has been applied using statistical data of 1996-2006. The results show that the real estate market of Chinese is in the steady rising development stage. It would progress to more mature stage under the macro-control of government. It is anticipated that the real estate market will steadily develop within the near future and will not fluctuate acutely.
本项研究旨在初步建立科学可行的房地产市场预警预报体系,客观分析房地产运行轨迹,正确评价和判断房地产形势及发展趋势,及早发现并且预防房地产异常波动对国民经济造成的影响,引导市场理性投资和消费,促进房地产经济的持续良好运行。
本论文运用规范研究和实证研究的方法,对房地产业预警机制进行了较为系统的研究。论文比较全面、深入地分析和阐明了房地产业预警机制理论及其方法,通过研究国内外经济预警以及房地产业预警的历史和研究成果,采用黄色预警法中的指数预警的方法建立起了我国房地产市场的预警系统。从房地产活动的全过程出发,选取了和房地产业相关的13个指标来建立预警指标体系,经过长期趋势调整和不规则调整,得到景气循环波动值;并且改进了传统扩散指数计算方法,设计了我国房地产业的综合扩散指数;利用扩散指数划分了警界和警级,建立了定量的具有评价功能的警界设置,并运用了回归预测方法进行预测预报未来市场的景气状况。
利用1996年-2006年的统计数据,应用到我国房地产市场预警系统中分析,结果显示我国房地产市场正处于平稳上升阶段,经过政府的宏观调控,将趋于更加成熟;预计近期内不会出现剧烈的波动。
The experience of economic growth and development in many countries indicate that economic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth. Following the high inflation of the economy there must be the economic conflation, and every intense fluctuation process to some extent destroy the economy and waste the natural resources in a large scale. Like macro-economy, the development of real estate industry also shows a phenomenon of fluctuation. Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, we should analyze the internal factors and external shocks of the fluctuation of real estate industry rely on the data in history and at present, to set up the early warning system by supervising the index system to which relate the real estate industry. We can predict the future economic fluctuation trends with the early warning system and applies it to the economic administration. It is of more important and significance to the development of real estate in China.
The purpose of this research is trying to set up a preliminary scientific and feasible real estate market early-warning system that can be used to objectively analyze the running orbit of the real estate. The situation and developing trend of the real estate market could be assessed and judged correctly. The abnormal fluctuation in the real estate market could be discovered and prevented at the early stages. The investment and the consumption in the market can be guided in order to promote the real estate economy running well continuously.
This essay probes into the economic early warning system by using theoretic and case studies. The essay systematically analyzes the theories and methods of the early warning system, Through the detailed review to the history and situation of the domestic and international economic early-warning development, the approach of index early-warning has been used to set up the early-warning system. According to the whole process of the real estate's running, this paper chose 13 indicators related to the real estate industry to set up the early-warning indicator system, obtained booming circulation fluctuation data according the long-time tendency adjustment and irregular adjustment; improved the calculation method of the traditional diffusion index, design a new type of integrative diffusion index; set up the a quantitative boundary system of early warning which possesses the function of appraisement, forecasted the prosperity status of the real estate market in future by the method Return Prediction.
The Chinese real estate market early-warning system has been applied using statistical data of 1996-2006. The results show that the real estate market of Chinese is in the steady rising development stage. It would progress to more mature stage under the macro-control of government. It is anticipated that the real estate market will steadily develop within the near future and will not fluctuate acutely.
引文
[1]包宗华.日本房地产泡沫经济的教训[J].上海房地,2007.
[2]包宗华.房地产业仍需“稳”字当头[J]. 瞭望,2002(4).
[3]曹振良、高晓慧等.中国房地产业发展与管理研究[M] .北京:北京大学出版社,2002:389-454.
[4]陈峰,丁烈云. 房地产综合模拟预警法误区的识别及修正[J].数学的实践与认识,2006(12).
[5]丁烈云.房地产周期波动与预警研究[D].同济大学博士论文,2002 .
[6]丁烈云.房地产周期波动成因分析[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2003,2.
[7]何国钊、曹振良、李晟.中国房地产周期研究[J].经济研究,1996,12:35-38.
[8]胡鹏、姚长学、钟叔平.房地产市场先行扩散指数预警监测系统设计[J].四川建筑,2003(2).
[9]建设部.怎样认识当前房地产市场形势[R].中华人民建设部网站,2004.
[10]李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.房地产景气预警中 DI 的改进及与 CI 的精度比较研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(1).
[11]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇可持续发展研究:内涵与评价[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2004(02).
[12]梁桂.中国不动产经济波动与周期的实证研究[J] .经济研究,1996,7:41-45.
[13]梁运斌.世纪之交的中国房地产:发展与调控[M] .北京:济管理出版社,1996:237-240.
[14]林文俏.人民币升值对中国产业的影响[J].产业与科技论坛,2006(4).
[15]刘树成.繁荣与稳定:中国经济波动研究[M] .北京:社会科学文献出版社,2000:97-113.
[16]刘仕国.关于时序数据的季节调整、季度变化率与年度变化率的推导及年度化方法[J] .世界经济统计研究,2003(1).
[17]刘绚.房地产企业融资与项目债券[J].中国房地产金融,2001(9).
[18]宫崎义一.泡沫经济的经济对策:复合萧条论[M].陆华生译,朱绍文校.中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[19]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].2006.
[20]搜房研究院.中国房地产指数系统:理论与实践[M].中国财经经济出版社,2001:46-52.
[21]谭刚.房地产周期波动[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001:9-30, 78-94 ,294-303.
[22]谭刚.深圳房地产周期波动研究[J].建筑经济,2001.
[23]吴维扬.经济预测及案例分析,第 1 版.中国经济出版社,1995:85-86.
[24]谢经荣,曲波.中国房地产周期波动的评价与探析[J].中国房地产金融,2003(2).
[25]闫妍,成思危等.地产泡沫预警模型及实证分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践.2006(6)
[26]叶艳兵,丁烈云.房地产预警指标体系设计研究[J].基建优化,2001(3)
[27]袁贤祯.房地产业景气与房地产业周期的关系研究[J].中国房地产,1996.2:8-13.
[28]余晓红,盛承懋.关于苏州房地产景气指数编制与实施的思考[J].苏州科技学院学报(社会科学版),2004 (5).
[29]曾明康.从国民自主原则探讨公共介入影响评估[M].台湾:台湾文化大学出版社,1986:133-135.
[30]张金鹗.房地产投资与决策分析-理论与实务[M].台湾:台湾华泰书局,1996:81-84.
[31]张元端.中国房地产发展的周期波动[J].住宅与房地产,1996,1: 35-41.
[32]周详.中国房地产周期波动及主要影响因素分析[J].宜春学院学报,2006(4).
[33]A.Johansen ,O.Ldoit,D.Sornette.Crashes as Critical Points[J]. Int.J.Theoret.Appl.Finance3,2000:219-255.
[34]A.Johansen,D.Sornette.Bubbles and Anti-bubbles in Latin-American, Asian and Westen Stock Markets: An Empirical Study[J], Int.J.Theoret.Appl.Finance 4,2001:853-920.
[35]Bruce Harwood.Real Estate Principal[M]. Reston Publishing CO. Virginal,1997:56-71.
[36]Fred Case. The Real Estate Cycle and the Economy:Consequences of the Massachusetts Boom of 1984-87 [M].Urban Studies, 1992.
[37]Fred Case. Dynamic Modeling of the Building Cycle [J]. Environment and Planning, March1987,P353-369.
[38]Gordon,J.P. Mosbaugh and T.Canter. Integrating Regional Economic Indictors with the Real Estate Cycle [J].Journal of Real EstateResearch.1996
[39]J.E.Stiglitz. Globalization and its Discontents [M].1st Edition ,W.Norton,New York, 2002.
[40]Kaiser,R.The Long Cycle in Real Estate [J].Journal of Real Estate Research,1997.
[41]Mueller,G.R.and S. P. Laposa. Evaluating Real Estate Markets Using Cycles Analyses [R]. Paper presented at the American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting,Santa Barbara,CA.April15,1994.
[42] Richard J., Buttimer Jr., James B., Kau and V. Carlos Slawson. A Model for Pricing Securities Dependent upon a Real Estate Index[J]. Journal of Housing Econonics,Vol6.1997:16-30.
[43] R.Roll. Benefits to Homeowners from Mortgage Portfolios Retained by Fannie Mae and Fredie Mac [D].Working Paper, 2002.
[44]Stone,Douglas,Willanm T. Ziemba. Land and Stock Price in Japan[J].Mimeo, University of British Columbia , Vancouver, and Frank Russel Company, Tcma.1990:57-68.
[45]Stone,Douglas, Willanm T. Ziemba .Land and Stock Price in Japan[J], Jonalur of Economic Perspective,Vol.7,No.3,1993:55-69.
[46]Stephen A.Pyhrr﹠James R.Cooper.“ Real Estate Investment” [M].John Willey﹠Sons,Inc,1982:166-167.
[47]Tomas Bjork and Eric Clapham. On the Pricing of Real Estate Index Linked Swaps[J].Journal of Housing Economics, vol.11,2002:418-432.
[48] Varian, Hal R.. Intermediate Microeconmics: A Modern Approach[M]. W. W. Norton&company,1993.
[49]W.-X . Zhou, D.Sornette. Evidence of Intermittent Cascades from Discrete Hierarchical Dissipation in Turbulence [J].Physica D , 2002: 94-125.
[50]W.-X.Zhou, D.Sornette.2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in UK but not in the USA[J].PhysicaA,2003:249-263.
[2]包宗华.房地产业仍需“稳”字当头[J]. 瞭望,2002(4).
[3]曹振良、高晓慧等.中国房地产业发展与管理研究[M] .北京:北京大学出版社,2002:389-454.
[4]陈峰,丁烈云. 房地产综合模拟预警法误区的识别及修正[J].数学的实践与认识,2006(12).
[5]丁烈云.房地产周期波动与预警研究[D].同济大学博士论文,2002 .
[6]丁烈云.房地产周期波动成因分析[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2003,2.
[7]何国钊、曹振良、李晟.中国房地产周期研究[J].经济研究,1996,12:35-38.
[8]胡鹏、姚长学、钟叔平.房地产市场先行扩散指数预警监测系统设计[J].四川建筑,2003(2).
[9]建设部.怎样认识当前房地产市场形势[R].中华人民建设部网站,2004.
[10]李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.房地产景气预警中 DI 的改进及与 CI 的精度比较研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(1).
[11]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇可持续发展研究:内涵与评价[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2004(02).
[12]梁桂.中国不动产经济波动与周期的实证研究[J] .经济研究,1996,7:41-45.
[13]梁运斌.世纪之交的中国房地产:发展与调控[M] .北京:济管理出版社,1996:237-240.
[14]林文俏.人民币升值对中国产业的影响[J].产业与科技论坛,2006(4).
[15]刘树成.繁荣与稳定:中国经济波动研究[M] .北京:社会科学文献出版社,2000:97-113.
[16]刘仕国.关于时序数据的季节调整、季度变化率与年度变化率的推导及年度化方法[J] .世界经济统计研究,2003(1).
[17]刘绚.房地产企业融资与项目债券[J].中国房地产金融,2001(9).
[18]宫崎义一.泡沫经济的经济对策:复合萧条论[M].陆华生译,朱绍文校.中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[19]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].2006.
[20]搜房研究院.中国房地产指数系统:理论与实践[M].中国财经经济出版社,2001:46-52.
[21]谭刚.房地产周期波动[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001:9-30, 78-94 ,294-303.
[22]谭刚.深圳房地产周期波动研究[J].建筑经济,2001.
[23]吴维扬.经济预测及案例分析,第 1 版.中国经济出版社,1995:85-86.
[24]谢经荣,曲波.中国房地产周期波动的评价与探析[J].中国房地产金融,2003(2).
[25]闫妍,成思危等.地产泡沫预警模型及实证分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践.2006(6)
[26]叶艳兵,丁烈云.房地产预警指标体系设计研究[J].基建优化,2001(3)
[27]袁贤祯.房地产业景气与房地产业周期的关系研究[J].中国房地产,1996.2:8-13.
[28]余晓红,盛承懋.关于苏州房地产景气指数编制与实施的思考[J].苏州科技学院学报(社会科学版),2004 (5).
[29]曾明康.从国民自主原则探讨公共介入影响评估[M].台湾:台湾文化大学出版社,1986:133-135.
[30]张金鹗.房地产投资与决策分析-理论与实务[M].台湾:台湾华泰书局,1996:81-84.
[31]张元端.中国房地产发展的周期波动[J].住宅与房地产,1996,1: 35-41.
[32]周详.中国房地产周期波动及主要影响因素分析[J].宜春学院学报,2006(4).
[33]A.Johansen ,O.Ldoit,D.Sornette.Crashes as Critical Points[J]. Int.J.Theoret.Appl.Finance3,2000:219-255.
[34]A.Johansen,D.Sornette.Bubbles and Anti-bubbles in Latin-American, Asian and Westen Stock Markets: An Empirical Study[J], Int.J.Theoret.Appl.Finance 4,2001:853-920.
[35]Bruce Harwood.Real Estate Principal[M]. Reston Publishing CO. Virginal,1997:56-71.
[36]Fred Case. The Real Estate Cycle and the Economy:Consequences of the Massachusetts Boom of 1984-87 [M].Urban Studies, 1992.
[37]Fred Case. Dynamic Modeling of the Building Cycle [J]. Environment and Planning, March1987,P353-369.
[38]Gordon,J.P. Mosbaugh and T.Canter. Integrating Regional Economic Indictors with the Real Estate Cycle [J].Journal of Real EstateResearch.1996
[39]J.E.Stiglitz. Globalization and its Discontents [M].1st Edition ,W.Norton,New York, 2002.
[40]Kaiser,R.The Long Cycle in Real Estate [J].Journal of Real Estate Research,1997.
[41]Mueller,G.R.and S. P. Laposa. Evaluating Real Estate Markets Using Cycles Analyses [R]. Paper presented at the American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting,Santa Barbara,CA.April15,1994.
[42] Richard J., Buttimer Jr., James B., Kau and V. Carlos Slawson. A Model for Pricing Securities Dependent upon a Real Estate Index[J]. Journal of Housing Econonics,Vol6.1997:16-30.
[43] R.Roll. Benefits to Homeowners from Mortgage Portfolios Retained by Fannie Mae and Fredie Mac [D].Working Paper, 2002.
[44]Stone,Douglas,Willanm T. Ziemba. Land and Stock Price in Japan[J].Mimeo, University of British Columbia , Vancouver, and Frank Russel Company, Tcma.1990:57-68.
[45]Stone,Douglas, Willanm T. Ziemba .Land and Stock Price in Japan[J], Jonalur of Economic Perspective,Vol.7,No.3,1993:55-69.
[46]Stephen A.Pyhrr﹠James R.Cooper.“ Real Estate Investment” [M].John Willey﹠Sons,Inc,1982:166-167.
[47]Tomas Bjork and Eric Clapham. On the Pricing of Real Estate Index Linked Swaps[J].Journal of Housing Economics, vol.11,2002:418-432.
[48] Varian, Hal R.. Intermediate Microeconmics: A Modern Approach[M]. W. W. Norton&company,1993.
[49]W.-X . Zhou, D.Sornette. Evidence of Intermittent Cascades from Discrete Hierarchical Dissipation in Turbulence [J].Physica D , 2002: 94-125.
[50]W.-X.Zhou, D.Sornette.2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in UK but not in the USA[J].PhysicaA,2003:249-263.
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