“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款：国际模式与中国设计
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摘要
本研究以中国经济社会发展状况为背景,在国际比较视野下展开“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款(ICL)的运作模式和必备条件的全面研究,阐明该学生贷款形式的实施机理、运作过程和社会功能。本文基于教育个人投资风险理论,探讨中国学生贷款问题,从理论和现实上论证ICL实施的必要性,并从个人收入和制度背景两个角度分析“按收入比例”还款型学生贷款在中国的可行性,试图寻求适合中国背景的学生贷款方案。
从理论上看,文章以教育个人投资风险作为实施“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款的理论基础。笔者运用中国社会科学院经济研究所“中国城乡居民收入分配”课题组2002年住户调查数据的7000多个样本,以分位数回归明瑟收益率的变异系数作为风险值指标,求得中国个人教育投资风险值为0.18,高于与之进行比较的其他国家的风险值中位数0.14。同时,笔者通过数理模型分析了“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款的风险分担机制,从理论上阐明了实施ICL的必要性。
从现实角度看,本文分析了中国高等教育收费和学生贷款政策的改革路径,结合中国居民当前平均收入,论证了低收入群体在“即时支付”和定期定额学生贷款模式下按期偿还贷款的难度,指出探索ICL方案的必要性。因为实施ICL的出发点还在于对弱势群体给予必要的补偿,因为他们绝大多数都是改革成本的承担者,政府有必要让他们获得合理的补偿,以保障应有的权利。
就可供中国考虑的其他国家实施ICL的模式来看,笔者将ICL划分为经典型和变形式,并将经典型区分为“总收入累进比例还款型”、“超额收入固定比例还款型”和“选择型超额收入累进比例还款型”;将变形式区分为“松散型ICL”和“人力资本合同”。再结合澳大利亚、英国、加拿大、美国的实践,文章分别论述了上述各种类型ICL的实施背景、特点和条件。
探讨发展中国家实施ICL的适用性是本文的主体和核心。论文从五个方面进行了充分的研究并发现,中国若要实施ICL,需要有这样的基本条件:(1)适当学费、合理债务收入比、低教育投资风险和低还款负担率支撑的还款能力;(2)覆盖面广、高度发达的用于回收贷款的税收或养老金系统;(3)相对同质化的收入水平,便于统一还款底线,确定还款率;(4)低通货膨胀率和稳定的银行借款利率;(5)学者们具有前瞻性的研究可为学生贷款的设计、实施和改革发挥作用。
中国特有的人口、经济、社会条件是学生贷款开展所依赖的基础。在对国际经验和ICL的中国适用条件进行了研究的基础上,笔者设计出中国“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款的实施方案,并提出,毕业生的收入将直接影响到ICL模式中的学生还款能力;政府的财力是ICL学生贷款能否持续开展的决定因素。借用“中华英才网”调查的毕业生平均收入的数据,本文测算了不同学生贷款还款模式下的毕业生偿还情况,结论表明:当实施定期定额还款型学生贷款时,毕业生的还款负担率过高;当实施按收入比例还款时,还款年限太长;假若尝试毕业生税,则还款现值难以弥补高等教育成本支出。因而,提高毕业生收入是促进偿还的关键因素。从政府财力来看,就2004—2020年模拟结果而言,政府提供本金的最高峰出现在2017年,该年度需要提供210亿。而按照当前财政性高等教育经费占GDP的0.61%计算,我国2020年高等教育财政性经费可达到2,135亿元(《十七大报告》指出2020年GDP总值为35万亿元),学生贷款需要的经费将占我国财政性高等教育经费的10%。与此同时,我国正在建设一流大学,基础设施建设和师资队伍建设对经费的需求亟为迫切,可以说,将财政性高等教育经费的10%用于学生贷款在现实中有较大难度。
Based on Chinese social and economic background, this article conducted comprehensive research on the implementation model and required conditions of Income-contingent Loan (ICL). This article explored the feasibility of ICL from empirical and systematic perspective and practical student loan scheme in China.
The theory of risk on educational investment is the basis of ICL. This article analyzed the sources and characteristic of educational investment risk and make empirical analysis. This thesis estimated the risk value is 0.18 which is higher than average value 0.14 by using the CHIP 2002 data and the co-efficiency of variance of Mincer rate of education return. Furthermore, the author analyzed the risk-shary mechanism of ICL in theory.
The article described the reform of Chinese college fee and student loan policy. Based on the average income, the author explained the difficult of "up-front payment" and "fixed-time repayment" under mortgage student loan, and the necessisity to carry out ICL. To compensate for the low income group justified the exploration of ICL since the low income group shouldered the cost of economic reform and it's the responsibility for the government to provide the subsidy and ensure their right.
This article categorized ICL into classical and flexible ICL and also classifies classical ICL into "progressive repayment on total income" and "fixed ratio repayment on extra income". The thesis discussed the background, characteristic and condition for all the different types of ICL.
The required conditions for ICL are indespensible. This article indicated the importance of five core conditions as following: (1) repayment ability related with suitable tuition fee and debt-to-burden ratio, low educational investment risk and low repayment burden ratio; (2) Income tax or pension system with widespread coverage and high development; (3) Homogeneous income level for streamlined repayment threshold and repayment rate; (4) macroeconomics condition: low inflation rate and interest rate; (5) persistent and far-sighting research conducted by scholar.
This thesis designed the ICL scheme for China and summarized two challenges from 2 perspectives: graduate income and government financial ability. As for graduate income, the part analyzed the repayment of different student loan scheme using the average income from "China Human Resource Web". The result indicated that the schemes will be faced with different challenges: the repayment burden ratio is extremely high under the Mortgage Student Loan; the repayment periods are too longer under the Income-contingent Loan; the present value of repayment can't meet the private cost of higher education under graduate tax. In the terms of financial ability, the peak of financial capital from government is in 2017 and it's difficult for the government to mobilize 21billion Yuan for student loan.
从理论上看,文章以教育个人投资风险作为实施“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款的理论基础。笔者运用中国社会科学院经济研究所“中国城乡居民收入分配”课题组2002年住户调查数据的7000多个样本,以分位数回归明瑟收益率的变异系数作为风险值指标,求得中国个人教育投资风险值为0.18,高于与之进行比较的其他国家的风险值中位数0.14。同时,笔者通过数理模型分析了“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款的风险分担机制,从理论上阐明了实施ICL的必要性。
从现实角度看,本文分析了中国高等教育收费和学生贷款政策的改革路径,结合中国居民当前平均收入,论证了低收入群体在“即时支付”和定期定额学生贷款模式下按期偿还贷款的难度,指出探索ICL方案的必要性。因为实施ICL的出发点还在于对弱势群体给予必要的补偿,因为他们绝大多数都是改革成本的承担者,政府有必要让他们获得合理的补偿,以保障应有的权利。
就可供中国考虑的其他国家实施ICL的模式来看,笔者将ICL划分为经典型和变形式,并将经典型区分为“总收入累进比例还款型”、“超额收入固定比例还款型”和“选择型超额收入累进比例还款型”;将变形式区分为“松散型ICL”和“人力资本合同”。再结合澳大利亚、英国、加拿大、美国的实践,文章分别论述了上述各种类型ICL的实施背景、特点和条件。
探讨发展中国家实施ICL的适用性是本文的主体和核心。论文从五个方面进行了充分的研究并发现,中国若要实施ICL,需要有这样的基本条件:(1)适当学费、合理债务收入比、低教育投资风险和低还款负担率支撑的还款能力;(2)覆盖面广、高度发达的用于回收贷款的税收或养老金系统;(3)相对同质化的收入水平,便于统一还款底线,确定还款率;(4)低通货膨胀率和稳定的银行借款利率;(5)学者们具有前瞻性的研究可为学生贷款的设计、实施和改革发挥作用。
中国特有的人口、经济、社会条件是学生贷款开展所依赖的基础。在对国际经验和ICL的中国适用条件进行了研究的基础上,笔者设计出中国“按收入比例还款”型学生贷款的实施方案,并提出,毕业生的收入将直接影响到ICL模式中的学生还款能力;政府的财力是ICL学生贷款能否持续开展的决定因素。借用“中华英才网”调查的毕业生平均收入的数据,本文测算了不同学生贷款还款模式下的毕业生偿还情况,结论表明:当实施定期定额还款型学生贷款时,毕业生的还款负担率过高;当实施按收入比例还款时,还款年限太长;假若尝试毕业生税,则还款现值难以弥补高等教育成本支出。因而,提高毕业生收入是促进偿还的关键因素。从政府财力来看,就2004—2020年模拟结果而言,政府提供本金的最高峰出现在2017年,该年度需要提供210亿。而按照当前财政性高等教育经费占GDP的0.61%计算,我国2020年高等教育财政性经费可达到2,135亿元(《十七大报告》指出2020年GDP总值为35万亿元),学生贷款需要的经费将占我国财政性高等教育经费的10%。与此同时,我国正在建设一流大学,基础设施建设和师资队伍建设对经费的需求亟为迫切,可以说,将财政性高等教育经费的10%用于学生贷款在现实中有较大难度。
Based on Chinese social and economic background, this article conducted comprehensive research on the implementation model and required conditions of Income-contingent Loan (ICL). This article explored the feasibility of ICL from empirical and systematic perspective and practical student loan scheme in China.
The theory of risk on educational investment is the basis of ICL. This article analyzed the sources and characteristic of educational investment risk and make empirical analysis. This thesis estimated the risk value is 0.18 which is higher than average value 0.14 by using the CHIP 2002 data and the co-efficiency of variance of Mincer rate of education return. Furthermore, the author analyzed the risk-shary mechanism of ICL in theory.
The article described the reform of Chinese college fee and student loan policy. Based on the average income, the author explained the difficult of "up-front payment" and "fixed-time repayment" under mortgage student loan, and the necessisity to carry out ICL. To compensate for the low income group justified the exploration of ICL since the low income group shouldered the cost of economic reform and it's the responsibility for the government to provide the subsidy and ensure their right.
This article categorized ICL into classical and flexible ICL and also classifies classical ICL into "progressive repayment on total income" and "fixed ratio repayment on extra income". The thesis discussed the background, characteristic and condition for all the different types of ICL.
The required conditions for ICL are indespensible. This article indicated the importance of five core conditions as following: (1) repayment ability related with suitable tuition fee and debt-to-burden ratio, low educational investment risk and low repayment burden ratio; (2) Income tax or pension system with widespread coverage and high development; (3) Homogeneous income level for streamlined repayment threshold and repayment rate; (4) macroeconomics condition: low inflation rate and interest rate; (5) persistent and far-sighting research conducted by scholar.
This thesis designed the ICL scheme for China and summarized two challenges from 2 perspectives: graduate income and government financial ability. As for graduate income, the part analyzed the repayment of different student loan scheme using the average income from "China Human Resource Web". The result indicated that the schemes will be faced with different challenges: the repayment burden ratio is extremely high under the Mortgage Student Loan; the repayment periods are too longer under the Income-contingent Loan; the present value of repayment can't meet the private cost of higher education under graduate tax. In the terms of financial ability, the peak of financial capital from government is in 2017 and it's difficult for the government to mobilize 21billion Yuan for student loan.
引文
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