大气质量波动与经济因素分析
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摘要
环境问题是当前最热门的问题之一,其与经济增长相互影响的研究一直也是当前很多学者研究的内容,其中最著名的就是EKC假说。但由于数据记录的年限问题、各国国情各地区政策的不同而产生多种形式的环境库兹涅茨曲线。关于环境问题的影响因素探讨也在此结果上展开。华北地区是中国的一个重要的工业基地和能源基地,也是大气污染很严重的一个区域。目前国内重点投资的滨海新区建设将会大力的拉动华北地区经济的高速发展,但随之而来的环境问题也日益显得更为重要。因此,结合EKC假说深入研究华北地区的经济增长与环境变化具有一定的理论和现实意义。
本文对华北地区六大省市运用EKC假说的理论对1991-2007年的数据进行了实证研究,并通过面板数据对包括经济增长、产业结构、外商投资等因素进行实证分析,研究得到以下结论:第一,环境库兹涅茨曲线并不对任何地域适用,但可以反映一定的问题。北京市的发展因多方面因素比较协调,在研究时段内一直处于EKC曲线的”双赢”区域,为华北地区的发展建立了模板。第二,在诸多考虑因素中,第二产业比重对环境的影响已经不占主体地位,工业对环境的影响主要集中在结构布局、环保技术和环保政策力度上。第三,在多数地区,引进外资在繁荣本地经济的前提下会导致更大的污染。而投资者在投资过程中投入大量成本改善当地环境质量的可能性很小。第四,目前技术水平的提高对二氧化硫的排放起到抑制的作用,而与烟尘和工业粉尘的排放呈正相关。这就要求提高技术水平对减少后二者污染的效率和力度。第五,环境政策在诸多因素中起到非常重要的作用,其对环境污染的控制力度非常显著。这就要求进一步增强人类的环保意识,提高环保技术水平,加强环保管理力度。
Environmental issues is one of the most popular issues, and the interaction with economic growth has been the study contents of many scholars. The most famous of which is the EKC hypothesis. However, due to the issue of data recording and the different of policy Kuznets Curve shows different forms. The probe about the factors impacting the environment is also carried out. North China is one of china’s important industrial base and energy base, and also a very serious air pollution is in the region. At present, the focus of investment in the construction of Tianjin Binhai New Area in North China will vigorously promote the rapid development of regional economy, but the environmental problems are also becoming more important. Therefore, the study using EKC hypothesis about the relationship between economic growth and environmental in North China has a certain theoretical practical significance.
In this paper, the application of environmental Kuznets curve theory paradigm study the relationship between economic growth and environmental changes in the period of 1991-2007, and analysis about impaction from many factors, including economic growth, industrial structure, foreign investment and other factors. Drawing the following conclusions: First, environment Kuznets Curve does not apply to any area, but some issues can be reflected. The development of Beijing, due to the coordination of various factors, has been“win-win”areas of EKC Curve in the study period, established a template for the development of North China. Second, the impacting on the environment from proportion of secondary industry does not account for the dominant position. The industrial impact on the environment focused on structure, environmental technology and efforts on environmental protection policies. Third, In most areas, the foreign investment in the prosperity of the local economy will lead to greater pollution. And it is nearly impossible that investors improve local environment. Forth, Raising the level of current technology can curb SO2 emissions, and show positively correlated with the smoke and industrial dust emissions. This requires the efficiency and intensity of technology should be raised to the latter two pollution. Fifth, Environmental policy is a very important role in a number of factors, and its efforts to control environmental pollution is very prominent. This requires further enhancing the environmental awareness of humanity, raising the technological level of environmental protection, strengthening environmental management.
本文对华北地区六大省市运用EKC假说的理论对1991-2007年的数据进行了实证研究,并通过面板数据对包括经济增长、产业结构、外商投资等因素进行实证分析,研究得到以下结论:第一,环境库兹涅茨曲线并不对任何地域适用,但可以反映一定的问题。北京市的发展因多方面因素比较协调,在研究时段内一直处于EKC曲线的”双赢”区域,为华北地区的发展建立了模板。第二,在诸多考虑因素中,第二产业比重对环境的影响已经不占主体地位,工业对环境的影响主要集中在结构布局、环保技术和环保政策力度上。第三,在多数地区,引进外资在繁荣本地经济的前提下会导致更大的污染。而投资者在投资过程中投入大量成本改善当地环境质量的可能性很小。第四,目前技术水平的提高对二氧化硫的排放起到抑制的作用,而与烟尘和工业粉尘的排放呈正相关。这就要求提高技术水平对减少后二者污染的效率和力度。第五,环境政策在诸多因素中起到非常重要的作用,其对环境污染的控制力度非常显著。这就要求进一步增强人类的环保意识,提高环保技术水平,加强环保管理力度。
Environmental issues is one of the most popular issues, and the interaction with economic growth has been the study contents of many scholars. The most famous of which is the EKC hypothesis. However, due to the issue of data recording and the different of policy Kuznets Curve shows different forms. The probe about the factors impacting the environment is also carried out. North China is one of china’s important industrial base and energy base, and also a very serious air pollution is in the region. At present, the focus of investment in the construction of Tianjin Binhai New Area in North China will vigorously promote the rapid development of regional economy, but the environmental problems are also becoming more important. Therefore, the study using EKC hypothesis about the relationship between economic growth and environmental in North China has a certain theoretical practical significance.
In this paper, the application of environmental Kuznets curve theory paradigm study the relationship between economic growth and environmental changes in the period of 1991-2007, and analysis about impaction from many factors, including economic growth, industrial structure, foreign investment and other factors. Drawing the following conclusions: First, environment Kuznets Curve does not apply to any area, but some issues can be reflected. The development of Beijing, due to the coordination of various factors, has been“win-win”areas of EKC Curve in the study period, established a template for the development of North China. Second, the impacting on the environment from proportion of secondary industry does not account for the dominant position. The industrial impact on the environment focused on structure, environmental technology and efforts on environmental protection policies. Third, In most areas, the foreign investment in the prosperity of the local economy will lead to greater pollution. And it is nearly impossible that investors improve local environment. Forth, Raising the level of current technology can curb SO2 emissions, and show positively correlated with the smoke and industrial dust emissions. This requires the efficiency and intensity of technology should be raised to the latter two pollution. Fifth, Environmental policy is a very important role in a number of factors, and its efforts to control environmental pollution is very prominent. This requires further enhancing the environmental awareness of humanity, raising the technological level of environmental protection, strengthening environmental management.
引文
[1] Arrow K, Bo lin B, Co stanza R. EconomicGrowth, CarryingCapacity and the Environment [J]. Science, 1995, 268: 520-521.
[2] BeckermanW. EconomicGrowth and the Environment: WhoseGrowth? Whose Environment [J]. World Development, 1992, 20: 481-496.
[3] Cheng S Y, Huang G D, Chakma A, et al. Estimation of Atmospheric Mixing Heights using data from Airport Meteorological Stations. Journal of Environmental Science and Health-Part. 2001, A36(4): 521~532
[4] Cleveland C J, Co stanza R, HallC A S. Energy and theU S Economy; A Biophysical Perspective[J]. Science, 1984, 225: 890-897
[5] Grosman G M, Kreuger A B. Economic growth and the environment [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110(2): 353-377
[6] Hannes Egli, 2001. Are Cross-country Studies of the Environmental kuznets Curve Missleading? New Evidence from Time Series Data for Germany, Discussion Paper, Ernst-moritz-Arndt University of Greifswald
[7] Hua Wang, Jun Bi&David W. Environmental Permormance Rating and Disclosure: China’s GreenWatch Program[J]. Journal of environmental management, 2004, (71): 22, 123-133
[8] Johansen S. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegrating vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. [J]. Econometrica, 1991, 59(6): 1551-1580
[9] Kathleen M. Growth and environment in Canada: Am Empirical Analysis Canadian. [J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2001, 51: 197-216
[10] Knack S. , P. Keefer. Institutions and economic performance: cross country tests using alternative institutional measures [J]. Economics and Politics. 1995 (7)
[11] Li, Z. Bao, X. B. Estimation of Kuznets Curve of China's Environment [J]. Science and Technology Review, 2002, (4): 57-58.
[12] Miroslav Radojevic, Hasnah Hassan. Air quality in Brunei Darussalam during the 1998 haze episode. Atmospheric Environment. 1999, 33: 3651~3658
[13] OECD. Environmental Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment in the Mining Sectorin Sub-Saharan Africa[R]. OECD Headquarters, 2 rue AndréPascal, 75775 CEDEX 16, Paris, France, 2002.
[14] Romer P. Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1986, 94(5): 1002-1037.
[15] Shafik N & Bandyopadhyay S. Economic growth and environmental quality: time series and cross-country evidence[C]. Background Paper for World Development Report 1992.
[16] Shunji MATSUOKA Reishi MATSUMOTO Ikuho Kochi: Economic Growth and Environment Quality in Developing Countries: A Verification of“Environmental kuznets Curve”, Hiroshima University.
[17] Vincent, J. R. Testing for Environmental kuznets Curves Within a Developing Country, Special Issue on Environmental kuznets Curves, Environment and Development Economics2(4): 417-431.
[18]包群,彭水军,阳小晓.是否存在环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线?[J].上海经济研究, 2005 (12): 3-13.
[19]陈朝晖.区域大气环境质量问题的研究[D].北京工业大学, 2008. 3.
[20]董锁成.中国百年资源环境与发展报告.湖北科学技术出版社, 2002.
[21]范金,胡汉辉. Kuznets曲线研究及应用[J].数学的实践与认识, 2002, 32(6): 944-951.
[22]方小枝.广西经济增长与环境质量关系的计量分析[D].广西师范大学, 2007. 4
[23]方子云,邹家祥.长江地区环境对策与可持续发展[M].武汉出版社, 1999
[24]韩国,郑宇植.中国环境污染与投资、贸易、GDP的关系[D].对外经济贸易大学, 2001. 5
[25]胡聃,许开鹏.经济发展对环境质量的影响[J].生态学报, 2004(6): 1259-1266.
[26]李达.经济增长与环境质量——基于长三角的实证研究[D].复旦大学, 2007. 4
[27]李达,王春晓.我国经济增长与大气污染物排放的关系[J].财经科学, 2007(2): 43-50.
[28]李赶顺,李惠茹.外商直接投资的生态环境效应研究展望[J].生态经济, 2007(11): 81-84.
[29]李国柱.中国经济增长与环境协调发展的计量分析[D].辽宁大学, 2007. 5
[30]刘汉中,李陈华. ADF与PP法在非对称单位根检验中的应用[J].预测, 2008(6):67-72.
[31]刘荣茂,张莉侠.经济增长与环境质量:来自中国省际面板数据的证据[M].经济地理, 2006: 374-377.
[32]米红,陈志坚. 21世纪初期(2001-2020)我国人口产业结构与环境污染、经济发展的关联模式仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2004(4): 23-33.
[33]潘文卿.外商投资对中国工业部门的外溢效应:基于面板数据的分析[J].世界经济, 2003(6): 3-8.
[34]钱枫林,刘强等.产业结构与环境污染的关系浅析[J].商场现代化, 2008(5): 345-346.
[35]沈满洪,许云华.一种新型环境库兹涅茨曲线——浙江省工业化进程中经济增长与环境变迁关系研究[J].浙江社会科学, 2000(4): 35-37.
[36]史秋实.北京十大技术推进节能减排将成新经济增长点[N].中国高新技术产业导报, 2009. 2
[37]苏伟,刘景双.吉林省经济增长与环境污染关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2007(2): 37-41.
[38]魏立桥,赵晓娜.基于环境污染的经济增长模型[J].软科学, 2008(2): 39-42.
[39]吴玉萍,董锁成,宋健峰.北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型研究[J].地理研究, 2002, 21(2): 239-246.
[40]杨政,田铮等.面板数据的单位根检验和协整检验[J].数理统计与管理, 2007(5): 420-426.
[41]张军,耿雅妮.宝鸡市大气环境质量EKC模型的建立与分析[J].宝鸡文理学院学报, 2008(12): 324-327.
[42]张喆,王金南.城市空气质量与经济发展的曲线估计研究[J].环境与可持续发展, 2007(4): 36-38.
[43]张永生.山西省大气污染的损害及经济评估[D].太原理工大学, 2003. 5
[44]张振家.环境工程学基础[M].化学工业出版社, 2006
[45]赵斌.华北地区大气污染排放状况研究[D].中国气象科学研究院, 2007. 4
[46]周仲魁,刘金辉.北京市大气排放物排放现状分析及治理对策[J].四川环境, 2007. 4
[2] BeckermanW. EconomicGrowth and the Environment: WhoseGrowth? Whose Environment [J]. World Development, 1992, 20: 481-496.
[3] Cheng S Y, Huang G D, Chakma A, et al. Estimation of Atmospheric Mixing Heights using data from Airport Meteorological Stations. Journal of Environmental Science and Health-Part. 2001, A36(4): 521~532
[4] Cleveland C J, Co stanza R, HallC A S. Energy and theU S Economy; A Biophysical Perspective[J]. Science, 1984, 225: 890-897
[5] Grosman G M, Kreuger A B. Economic growth and the environment [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110(2): 353-377
[6] Hannes Egli, 2001. Are Cross-country Studies of the Environmental kuznets Curve Missleading? New Evidence from Time Series Data for Germany, Discussion Paper, Ernst-moritz-Arndt University of Greifswald
[7] Hua Wang, Jun Bi&David W. Environmental Permormance Rating and Disclosure: China’s GreenWatch Program[J]. Journal of environmental management, 2004, (71): 22, 123-133
[8] Johansen S. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegrating vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. [J]. Econometrica, 1991, 59(6): 1551-1580
[9] Kathleen M. Growth and environment in Canada: Am Empirical Analysis Canadian. [J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2001, 51: 197-216
[10] Knack S. , P. Keefer. Institutions and economic performance: cross country tests using alternative institutional measures [J]. Economics and Politics. 1995 (7)
[11] Li, Z. Bao, X. B. Estimation of Kuznets Curve of China's Environment [J]. Science and Technology Review, 2002, (4): 57-58.
[12] Miroslav Radojevic, Hasnah Hassan. Air quality in Brunei Darussalam during the 1998 haze episode. Atmospheric Environment. 1999, 33: 3651~3658
[13] OECD. Environmental Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment in the Mining Sectorin Sub-Saharan Africa[R]. OECD Headquarters, 2 rue AndréPascal, 75775 CEDEX 16, Paris, France, 2002.
[14] Romer P. Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1986, 94(5): 1002-1037.
[15] Shafik N & Bandyopadhyay S. Economic growth and environmental quality: time series and cross-country evidence[C]. Background Paper for World Development Report 1992.
[16] Shunji MATSUOKA Reishi MATSUMOTO Ikuho Kochi: Economic Growth and Environment Quality in Developing Countries: A Verification of“Environmental kuznets Curve”, Hiroshima University.
[17] Vincent, J. R. Testing for Environmental kuznets Curves Within a Developing Country, Special Issue on Environmental kuznets Curves, Environment and Development Economics2(4): 417-431.
[18]包群,彭水军,阳小晓.是否存在环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线?[J].上海经济研究, 2005 (12): 3-13.
[19]陈朝晖.区域大气环境质量问题的研究[D].北京工业大学, 2008. 3.
[20]董锁成.中国百年资源环境与发展报告.湖北科学技术出版社, 2002.
[21]范金,胡汉辉. Kuznets曲线研究及应用[J].数学的实践与认识, 2002, 32(6): 944-951.
[22]方小枝.广西经济增长与环境质量关系的计量分析[D].广西师范大学, 2007. 4
[23]方子云,邹家祥.长江地区环境对策与可持续发展[M].武汉出版社, 1999
[24]韩国,郑宇植.中国环境污染与投资、贸易、GDP的关系[D].对外经济贸易大学, 2001. 5
[25]胡聃,许开鹏.经济发展对环境质量的影响[J].生态学报, 2004(6): 1259-1266.
[26]李达.经济增长与环境质量——基于长三角的实证研究[D].复旦大学, 2007. 4
[27]李达,王春晓.我国经济增长与大气污染物排放的关系[J].财经科学, 2007(2): 43-50.
[28]李赶顺,李惠茹.外商直接投资的生态环境效应研究展望[J].生态经济, 2007(11): 81-84.
[29]李国柱.中国经济增长与环境协调发展的计量分析[D].辽宁大学, 2007. 5
[30]刘汉中,李陈华. ADF与PP法在非对称单位根检验中的应用[J].预测, 2008(6):67-72.
[31]刘荣茂,张莉侠.经济增长与环境质量:来自中国省际面板数据的证据[M].经济地理, 2006: 374-377.
[32]米红,陈志坚. 21世纪初期(2001-2020)我国人口产业结构与环境污染、经济发展的关联模式仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2004(4): 23-33.
[33]潘文卿.外商投资对中国工业部门的外溢效应:基于面板数据的分析[J].世界经济, 2003(6): 3-8.
[34]钱枫林,刘强等.产业结构与环境污染的关系浅析[J].商场现代化, 2008(5): 345-346.
[35]沈满洪,许云华.一种新型环境库兹涅茨曲线——浙江省工业化进程中经济增长与环境变迁关系研究[J].浙江社会科学, 2000(4): 35-37.
[36]史秋实.北京十大技术推进节能减排将成新经济增长点[N].中国高新技术产业导报, 2009. 2
[37]苏伟,刘景双.吉林省经济增长与环境污染关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2007(2): 37-41.
[38]魏立桥,赵晓娜.基于环境污染的经济增长模型[J].软科学, 2008(2): 39-42.
[39]吴玉萍,董锁成,宋健峰.北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型研究[J].地理研究, 2002, 21(2): 239-246.
[40]杨政,田铮等.面板数据的单位根检验和协整检验[J].数理统计与管理, 2007(5): 420-426.
[41]张军,耿雅妮.宝鸡市大气环境质量EKC模型的建立与分析[J].宝鸡文理学院学报, 2008(12): 324-327.
[42]张喆,王金南.城市空气质量与经济发展的曲线估计研究[J].环境与可持续发展, 2007(4): 36-38.
[43]张永生.山西省大气污染的损害及经济评估[D].太原理工大学, 2003. 5
[44]张振家.环境工程学基础[M].化学工业出版社, 2006
[45]赵斌.华北地区大气污染排放状况研究[D].中国气象科学研究院, 2007. 4
[46]周仲魁,刘金辉.北京市大气排放物排放现状分析及治理对策[J].四川环境, 2007. 4