内蒙古环境污染与经济增长关系的实证研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,随着我国经济的高速发展,各种各样的环境问题浮现出来,如何协调环境与经济的和谐发展成为当今社会关注的焦点。从九十年代开始,内蒙古依靠地区的资源优势,经济得到了快速发展,但是在发展的同时也不可避免的产生了环境污染。研究内蒙古环境污染与经济增长之间的关系,协调经济和环境可持续发展迫在眉睫。
本文从分析内蒙古环境污染与经济增长关系入手,基于内蒙古历史数据,从实证的角度,采用环境库兹涅茨模型,运用计量经济学的方法分析二者之间的数量关系即环境污染与经济增长的中长期发展趋势。得出内蒙古的工业废水排放量与内蒙古人均GDP呈U型关系,工业固体废物排放量与内蒙古人均GDP呈倒N型关系,而内蒙古的工业废气排放量与内蒙古人均GDP呈一次线性正相关的关系,并对曲线的形成原因进行经济学分析。接着定性和定量的分析了内蒙古的产业结构、人口、技术进步、外贸等外部因素是如何影响环境污染从而引起环境污染偏离拟合曲线而产生短期局部波动。最后结合上述分析结果,根据内蒙古实际情况,提出保持内蒙古环境与经济可持续发展的对策建议。
Since the reform and open policy, along with our country economy's high speed development, various environment question has reappeared, to be how coordinated the focal point which the environment and the economical accord development into the society pays attention now. Starts from the 90s, Inner Mongolia depended upon local the resources superiority, the economy obtained the fast development, but during development also inevitable production environmental pollution. Studies between Inner Mongolia environmental pollution and the economic growth relations, the coordinated economy and the environment sustainable development are imminent. this article from analyzes Inner Mongolia environmental pollution and the economic growth relations obtains, based on Inner Mongolia historical data, from the real diagnosis angle, uses the environment Kuznets model and the econometric analysis of the quantitative relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth that is long-term trends. Obtains Inner Mongolia's industrial waste withdrawal and Inner Mongolian average per person GDP assumes the U relations, the industry solid waste withdrawal and Inner Mongolian average per person GDP assumes but actually the N relations, but Inner Mongolia's industrial waste gas withdrawal and Inner Mongolian average per person GDP assumes a Linear positive correlation which is related, and carries on the economic analysis to the curve formation reason. Then qualitative and the quota analysis Inner Mongolia's industrial structure, the population, the technology advancement, how the foreign trade and so on did the external factor affect the environmental pollution, thus caused the environmental pollution deviation fitted curve to have the short-term partial fluctuation. Finally the union above analysis result, according to the Inner Mongolian actual situation, proposed that maintains the Inner Mongolian environment and the economical sustainable development countermeasure suggestion.
本文从分析内蒙古环境污染与经济增长关系入手,基于内蒙古历史数据,从实证的角度,采用环境库兹涅茨模型,运用计量经济学的方法分析二者之间的数量关系即环境污染与经济增长的中长期发展趋势。得出内蒙古的工业废水排放量与内蒙古人均GDP呈U型关系,工业固体废物排放量与内蒙古人均GDP呈倒N型关系,而内蒙古的工业废气排放量与内蒙古人均GDP呈一次线性正相关的关系,并对曲线的形成原因进行经济学分析。接着定性和定量的分析了内蒙古的产业结构、人口、技术进步、外贸等外部因素是如何影响环境污染从而引起环境污染偏离拟合曲线而产生短期局部波动。最后结合上述分析结果,根据内蒙古实际情况,提出保持内蒙古环境与经济可持续发展的对策建议。
Since the reform and open policy, along with our country economy's high speed development, various environment question has reappeared, to be how coordinated the focal point which the environment and the economical accord development into the society pays attention now. Starts from the 90s, Inner Mongolia depended upon local the resources superiority, the economy obtained the fast development, but during development also inevitable production environmental pollution. Studies between Inner Mongolia environmental pollution and the economic growth relations, the coordinated economy and the environment sustainable development are imminent. this article from analyzes Inner Mongolia environmental pollution and the economic growth relations obtains, based on Inner Mongolia historical data, from the real diagnosis angle, uses the environment Kuznets model and the econometric analysis of the quantitative relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth that is long-term trends. Obtains Inner Mongolia's industrial waste withdrawal and Inner Mongolian average per person GDP assumes the U relations, the industry solid waste withdrawal and Inner Mongolian average per person GDP assumes but actually the N relations, but Inner Mongolia's industrial waste gas withdrawal and Inner Mongolian average per person GDP assumes a Linear positive correlation which is related, and carries on the economic analysis to the curve formation reason. Then qualitative and the quota analysis Inner Mongolia's industrial structure, the population, the technology advancement, how the foreign trade and so on did the external factor affect the environmental pollution, thus caused the environmental pollution deviation fitted curve to have the short-term partial fluctuation. Finally the union above analysis result, according to the Inner Mongolian actual situation, proposed that maintains the Inner Mongolian environment and the economical sustainable development countermeasure suggestion.
引文
[1]根据内蒙古统计年鉴算出
[2]中国环保网:/www.chinaenvironment.com
[3]中国环保网:/www.chinaenvironment.com
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[2]中国环保网:/www.chinaenvironment.com
[3]中国环保网:/www.chinaenvironment.com
[1]韩贵峰,徐建华,苏方林等.环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)研究评述[J].环境与可持续发展,2006(1):1-3
[2]张晓.中国环境政策的总体评价[J].中国社会科学,1999(3):88-99
[3]曹光辉,汪锋,张宗益等.我国经济增长与环境污染关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(1):25-29
[4]冯树才,李国柱.中国经济增长与环境污染关系的Kuznets曲线[J].统计研究,2006(8):37-40
[5]陆虹.中国环境问题与经济发展的关系分析--以大气污染为例[J].财经研究,2000,26(10):53-59
[6]李海鹏,叶慧,张俊鹰.中国收入差距和环境质量关系的实证检验--基于对环境库兹涅茨曲线的扩展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(2):46-50
[7]王瑞玲,陈印军.我国“三废”排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及其成因的灰色关联度分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005,15(2):42-47
[8]张赞.中国工业化发展水平与环境质量的关系[J].财经科学,2006(2):47-54
[9]刘燕,潘杨,陈刚.经济开放条件下的经济增长与环境质量--基于中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2006,8(6):48-55
[10]包群,彭水军,阳小晓.是否存在环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线?[J].上海经济研究,2005(12):3-11
[11]李周,包晓斌.中国环境库兹涅茨曲线的估计[J].科技先导,2002(4):25-32
[12]李慧明,卜欣欣.环境与经济如何双赢--环境库兹涅茨曲线引发的思考[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2003(1):58-64
[13]郑易生.环境与经济双赢乌托邦的误区与现实选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2000,10(3):112-114
[14]杨先明,黄宁.环境库兹涅茨曲线与增长方式转型[J].云南大学学报(社会科学版),2005,3(6):45-51
[15]洪阳,架胜基.环境质量与经济增长的库兹涅茨关系探讨[J].上海环境科学,1999,18(3):112-114
[16]张凯.循环经济对环境库兹涅茨曲线的影响分析[J].中国发展,2005(1):12-16
[17]陈文华,刘康兵.经济增长与环境质量:关于环境库兹涅茨曲线的经验分析[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2004(2):87-94
[18]吴玉萍,董锁成,宋键峰.北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型研究[J].地理研究,2003,21(2):239-245
[19]高振宁,缪旭波,邹长新.江苏省环境库兹涅茨特征分析[J].农村生态环境,2004,20(1):41-43,59
[20]田立新,姚洪兴,黄苏海.经济增长条件下环境库兹涅茨曲线方案的改进[J].江苏大学学报(社会科学版),2004,6(2):75-79
[21]吴开亚,陈晓剑.安徽省的经济增长与环境污染水平的关系研究[J].重庆环境科学,2003,25(6):9-11
[22]吴海鹰,张胜林.西部地区经济发展与环境质量关系的实证研究[J].宁夏社会科学,2005(5):29-33
[23]杨智勇.EKC曲线在内蒙古的实证检验及计量分析[J]内蒙古财经学院学报,2007(3):91-94
[24]姚志勇.环境经济学[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2002.
[25]林肇信,刘天齐,刘逸农著.环境保护概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999
[26]马中主编.环境与资源经济学概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999
[27]尼克斯等著,马中译.经济学与环境物质平衡方法[M].北京:三联书店.1991
[28]米都斯等著,李宝恒译.增长的极限[M].成都:四川人民出版社,1983
[29]张象枢主编.环境经济学[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2001
[30]钟水映,简新华.人口、资源与环境经济学[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[31]赵玉焕.贸易与环境.北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社[M],北京,2002.
[32]何晓群编著.多元统计分析[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2000.
[33]郝黎仁,攀元,郝哲欧等.SPSS实用统计分析[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2003
[34]李子奈编著.计量经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社.2000
[35]罗杰.铂曼,马越著.候元兆译.自然资源与环境经济学[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2002.
[36]汤母.惕藤伯格著.朱启贵译,环境经济学与政策[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[37]内蒙古自治区统计局,内蒙古统计年鉴,1988-2008
[38]袁达.中国工业经济与环境协调发展的经济计量研究:(硕士学位论文).北京:华侨大学,1999.
[39]高铜寿.安徽省经济增长与主要污染物排放的数量关系研究:(硕士学位论文).合肥.合肥工业大学.2007
[40]张玉媚.广东省工业化进程中经济增长与环境变化之间关系的实证研究:(硕士学位论文).广州.暨南大学.2006
[41]方小枝.广西经济增长与环境质量关系的计量分析:(硕士学位论文).广西.广西师范大学.2007
[42]刘小琴.辽宁环境质量与经济增长关系的实证研究:(硕士学位论文).大连.大连理工大学.2006
[43]陆剑锋.江苏省“三废”排放的实证分析与研究:(硕士学位论文).南京.南京航天航空大学.2007
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